New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 48

posted at 4:41 pm on October 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

New from Rasmussen, it’s the second poll in as many days showing Romney up two points in NH. Of the last eight polls taken in the state, he leads in four, is tied in two more, trails by a single point in another, and the last is an outlier. (Rasmussen’s last poll of NH, taken eight days ago, had Obama up by a point.) Why should you care about that? Simple: If Ohio doesn’t pan out for Mitt, his lone remaining path to the presidency may well be hitting an exacta with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If he wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, all of which are big but necessary ifs, that’ll put him at 257 in RCP’s electoral vote model. He can then get to 270 either with Ohio (18) or with NH + WI (14). I’m thinking those two states are a bit likelier to turn red than, say, Iowa or Nevada, not only because of the current RCP poll averages but because of the GOP ticket’s regional ties to them. (Romney not only governed the state next door, he has a vacation home in New Hampshire.) Besides, Iowa and Nevada each have only six EVs, so the most they can do for him without winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Ohio is clinch a dreaded 269-269 tie. But then, the odds of Mitt winning IA and NV (or PA or MI) while losing the other three seem astronomical. So Ohio remains Plan A, but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are Plan B. He’s on track, narrowly, in the latter state, but there hasn’t been a new poll of Wisconsin since Sunday. Maybe tomorrow? Until then, this intriguing tidbit will have to do:

Priorities USA is, of course, Obama’s Super PAC. Team O is talking verrrry tough to Mark Halperin (“I was struck by the expression of near certainty that their candidate would be re-elected”), but Josh Kraushaar makes a nice point about the battleground states. One thing they have in common is that they’re not in O’s demographic sweet spot:

The one hole in that argument is their own acknowledgment of where they’re running strongest — the five-state firewall of OH, IA, NH, NV and WI. With the notable exception of NV, these are heavily-white states and skew older. These aren’t the states where their base coalition; it’s where they’re running competitively enough with white voters (particularly working-class women). And implicity, they acknowledge they’re not ahead (they’re tied, presumably) in the states with the highest youth/minority vote combo: VA, NC and CO.

So if the GOTV operation is firing on all cylinders in a state like VA but the race is even, one would imagine he’s struggling with white voters. And in order to win those firewall states, he has to overperform his natl average with those same white voters.

Via John McCormack of the Standard, the early voting totals among O’s base in Virginia are apparently lagging:

Per RCP’s EV projections, if Obama holds on in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Nevada, he’s at 249 and needs to find 21 votes between Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Virginia has the second-most EVs in that list behind Ohio, so if he loses them both, he’ll have to win all three of the others to clinch. Not impossible, but if the bigger battleground states are tilting away from him, it’d be some trick if he figured out a way to reverse that momentum in the smaller ones and pile up enough of them to eke over the finish line.

Update: Just as I’m writing this, Time is out with a new poll of Ohio showing Obama up by five. However:


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heh. Up by 5 in Ohio w/ D+9. So he’s really down by 4 eh?

ted c on October 24, 2012 at 6:59 PM

If R turnout is 1% less than 2010 and splits are the same, yes.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:00 PM

The back and forth with our resident Lib gumbyandpokey proves that conservatives are far more tolerant than libs. I have had many accounts blocked by users of Daily Kos for offering up far less stupid crap than gumby.

lostinjrz on October 24, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Amen!

gumbyandpokey is a stupid attention ho, and it’s annoying to see people complain about him knowing that they could instead more easily not indulge him in the first place.

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 7:00 PM

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 7:00 PM

He keeps re-emerging over at Ace’s with different proxies.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 7:01 PM

You know I had a nice long response typed out to you and I just decided you are not worth it. I pity you.

gophergirl on October 24, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Look upon him and the other bizarre troll akinaku or whatever its name is as inconsistent performance art and it makes more sense.

kim roy on October 24, 2012 at 7:01 PM

One of the reasons communist scum are so “defending” OH is that come Nov 6th, if FL, OH and other states are seemingly in GOP corner, then a number of states in the West (CO, NV, etc) may be swayed to GOP even further. And I actually expect that demoralized liberals will simply stay home as numbers Eastern numbers keep rolling in. OH is pretty much their last stand for now.

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Yep. Because Ohio is the closest of the “big” remaining swing states, Ohio isn’t just Obama’s firewall. It’s the media’s, too.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Nevermind these polls. We can’t do anything about them.

Remember to go out and vote, take your family and some friends. Work on anyone you might come across to either stay home if an Obama voter or to encourage to vote R if wavering.

That’s all we can do with all this noise.

kim roy on October 24, 2012 at 7:04 PM

I know, and I wouldn’t care so much, but the threads have become simply unreadable…it’s just endless scrolling past this caricature’s posts…it’s irritating really…what does he have to contribute exactly other than ‘I told you so’…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 6:57 PM

He contributes nothing to the conversation, except to incite others. All he ever posts about is polls. He hijacks every thread with his poll trolling/moby/concern trolling garbage.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 7:04 PM

I would hope that the Dems spend a few hundred million borrowed dollars chasing a loss. Should make it even easier come mid-terms.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:05 PM

I still think Romney takes PA. This has to do with what happened in 2010 when Corbett and Toomey won. However, there might be another factor to look at. I know how imprecise the weather is, but looking at the weather forecast for election day in Philly, it’s supposed to be under 60 degrees and rainy. This will keep a lot of people from the polls, who are already reluctant to re-elect Obama.

djaymick on October 24, 2012 at 7:05 PM

The story continues:

Congressional sources tell Fox News that a top administration counterterrorism official was reprimanded by the White House last month after he testified that the Sept. 11 attack in Libya was terrorism.

The White House and the official are pushing back on the claim. But the allegation would appear to raise questions about recent administration statements that they were labeling the attack terrorism from the start.

Sources told Fox News that, in fact, the White House was unhappy with Matt Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, after his Sept. 19 comments, and told him to tone it down afterward.

INC on October 24, 2012 at 7:05 PM

I don’t know why Allah or Ed or Erika hasn’t banned GumbyPokeMe he is the most annoying concern troll/Moby of all time. He has been going on and on with the same bs since he surfaced with”Walker is done in WI” and acted like a “concerned conservative.”

gumbyandpokey is a troll.But he has never used bad language or done racial slurs.

other than being a liberal moron he does not deserve to be banned

gerrym51 on October 24, 2012 at 6:55 PM

They’re keeping Play-D’Oh! around for Comedy Relief.

Usually those who eventually get banned here manage to do it themselves via some sort of meltdown. Be patient.

And don’t automatically rule out the Libya news thing hurting O’bamna over the final 2 weeks; it’s only been in the news cycle for 24 hours, and the fact that the Democrat Media is desperately trying to cover it up speaks volumes. Dr. Goebbels would be proud of them.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 7:06 PM

GumbyPokeMe goes much further than just “trolling.” He hijacks every thread with his garbage. Enough is enough. It is beyond aggravating coming here to have intelligent conversation and having to navigate through GumpyPokeMe’s garbage.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Can you explain gumbyandpokey is able to hijack threads without the willing assistance of those who take the time to respond to him?

It looks to me like you want government intervention to solve your “problem” instead of solving it yourself by exerting some self-control.

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 7:06 PM

heh. Up by 5 in Ohio w/ D+9. So he’s really down by 4 eh?

ted c on October 24, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Expect liberal polls to go up by 1 each and every day from now on to get the numbers they need to convince the “undecided”, whoever they are. I am sure we’ll start seeing D+10 or more soon as communist scum (news media) try to twist this.

Even Soviet day news media were not that bad and they were paid for by the government. These idiots do it on their own accord. Sad. And speaks volumes about the theory of evolution. More like devolution to me.

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 7:07 PM

I hope it’s like 2004 for us. Though I was too young to vote in 2004, I remember watching election night with my dad, and how he was so worried when the “Exit Polls” came out showing Kerry winning, but then Bush won.

I hope it’s like that.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 6:54 PM

That’s a very realistic possibility. Watch for bullcrap stories to float around that afternoon.

Also watch for a state like Michigan to get the insta-call if it goes for Obama 51-48, while Virginia will be “too close to call” for ages despite Romney being up 8. The usual media crap will apply. I was old enough to vote in ’04, but not nearly old enough to remember seeing a Democrat concede on election night. I hope this year’s buttkicking is enough to change that trend, but just so long as he goes…

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 7:08 PM

gumbyandpokey is a troll. But he has never used bad language or done racial slurs.

other than being a liberal moron he does not deserve to be banned

gerrym51 on October 24, 2012 at 6:55 PM

We empower trolls by responding to their garbage. Ignore them.

slickwillie2001 on October 24, 2012 at 7:09 PM

INC on October 24, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Despicable. Is no one safe from this tyranny? Has he now been shipped to Iraq?

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 7:09 PM

All one has to do is remember Nov. ’10. Have said it here before and will say it again… Have any (repub) minds changed since ’10 in regards to throwing the dims and the King Dim out of office? Now ask yourself if any dim minds have changed? We’ve all been sitting here patiently, sucking up the results of the primaries, and are now poised and ready to strike.

Ben Franklin…

I recollected that her eye excelled in brightness, that of any other animal, and that she has no eye-lids—She may therefore be esteemed an emblem of vigilance.—She never begins an attack, nor, when once engaged, ever surrenders: She is therefore an emblem of magnanimity and true courage.—As if anxious to prevent all pretensions of quarreling with her, the weapons with which nature has furnished he
r, she conceals in the roof of her mouth, so that, to those who are unacquainted with her, she appears to be a most defenseless animal; and even when those weapons are shewn and extended for her defense, they appear weak and contemptible; but their wounds however small, are decisive and fatal:—Conscious of this, she never wounds till she has generously given notice, even to her enemy, and cautioned him against the danger of stepping on her.—Was I wrong, Sir, in thinking this a strong picture of the temper and conduct of America?” Ben Franklin, Gadsden Flag… Don’t tread on me!

ahlaphus on October 24, 2012 at 7:10 PM

I was just looking over the early numbers on returned absentee ballots by county in OH. The Rs have greatly improved and the Ds are off a lot since 2008. I know that McCain won election day, but Obama won because of the votes he had already banked. I can already tell that the bank will not be as full this year.

I do have a question if anyone remembers. Didn’t Obama bank +130,000 votes in Cuyahoga (or win it by that amount – I could be confusing the two)? I am pretty sure that is what his margin in absentee ballots was, but I could be wrong.

As of today, he is running at 61.5% of what he did in Cuyahoga in 2008 (IOW, Dems — and that is assuming ALL Dems vote for Obama — have returned 130,175 and Reps have returned 50,667. The diff is 79,508).

Many of the reversals are quite surprising. In some counties, Dems are off 50%.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:10 PM

We empower trolls by responding to their garbage. Ignore them.

slickwillie2001 on October 24, 2012 at 7:09 PM

+infinity!

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 7:13 PM

I would hope that the Dems spend a few hundred million borrowed dollars chasing a loss. Should make it even easier come mid-terms.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Agree and would add that I hope UNIONS spend big this cycle. Once they need to replenish their bank accounts and in turn bump up union fees I hope that more union members say “Enough is enough!”.

In Soviet Union EVERY salary was contributing to union fees. So, one’s salary of 1000 Rubles per month was turned to an eventual take home pay of 100-140 Rubles after union dues and depending on your profession (salaries were set by the government and were uniform across a specific field and across the land). This is where Hussein has been heading when trying to steer the OWS and others with “redistribution” BS. Once they convince enough people that X type of job should only earn Y dollars and no more you get to the USSR style work force and compensation.

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 7:16 PM

He has been going on and on with the same bs since he surfaced with”Walker is done in WI” and acted like a “concerned conservative.”

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Since well before that.

Dirt McGirt on October 24, 2012 at 7:17 PM

You are a flat out liar. Every single newscast has talked about it all day and the King is still refusing to answer and Hillary laughed when asked about it.

It’s huge, scumbag and my keys are still jingling, not that would understand the meaning of that.

It is time for you to go. Now.

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Yeah, as I said in an above post, that crap last night was pretty much my breaking point for my tolerance of him too.

The Communists never think that the keys are for them… Havel was a bit polite, really. For gumbo it’s about time to put away the keys and put on the steel-toed boots.

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Yep. Because Ohio is the closest of the “big” remaining swing states, Ohio isn’t just Obama’s firewall. It’s the media’s, too.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Yep, Ohio is their big firewall. If polls started showing Democrats losing in Ohio, the bottom would drop out of their enthusiasm. That’s why we’re still getting screwy D+9 samples there. But if you look behind the numbers, to what is happening on the ground, comparing the absentee ballot numbers to 2008, and the turnout for Romney/Ryan events, Ohio is looking redder by the day.

Additionally, since Democrats tend to vote early more than Republicans, this will also skew polls toward the Democrats because people who already voted will automatically make it through LV screens.

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I was just looking over the early numbers on returned absentee ballots by county in OH. The Rs have greatly improved and the Ds are off a lot since 2008. I know that McCain won election day, but Obama won because of the votes he had already banked. I can already tell that the bank will not be as full this year.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:10 PM

I hope that is where this stays. But then something tells me that printing presses and cars with large trunks are being set up as we speak in order to “find” votes that are required to steal the election. Same for states such as WI where it has already been proven in play in recent elections.

That said, I also hope that I am wrong and we won’t see foul play this year. At least not on the scale that will be enough to steal the election again.

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Good info there. That follows very much with the trends that are being seen in Virginia and Colorado.

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Despicable. Is no one safe from this tyranny? Has he now been shipped to Iraq?

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 7:09 PM

There are, of course, public denials, but at least this leak should offer him some safeguard.

BHO is fighting for his political life, as are many associated with this. Unfortunately for him, this keeps on going. Gateway Pundit has a new screenshot of another e-mail that FOX has released. He doesn’t link to the source, but it’s blurry so I assume he grabbed it from a video of a news report.

INC on October 24, 2012 at 7:25 PM

wolfie sure is excited about this poll….

obama has ohio in the bag…no way mitt can win now

cmsinaz on October 24, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Since well before that.

Dirt McGirt on October 24, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Ah, so gumballsandpokerface used to haunt the Freepers as well.

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Plan B.

I wish the city had, had a plan B for traffic this evening. Ryan is in town on a fund raiser. Traffic is screwed!!!

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Chart of the Day: Poll Average and Actual Results, 1972-2004, True Incumbents

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:16 PM

What is supposed to be the takeaway from this?

ChrisL on October 24, 2012 at 7:32 PM

On Gumby. Have we not been able to refute what he says? If we can’t refute what he/she says with valid arguments what are we worth?

He hasn’t been rude, no meltdown yet. Leave him/her be. Answer if you want. Don’t if you don’t want.

But for God sakes, I’d rather read and refute Gumby than some of the whining “ohmyGoditsalllostRomneycantwin” comments when one point shifts in a poll. I mean really, put on some big boy and big girl pants.

We have good reason to be upbeat. Very good reasons. Turn those frowns upside down. Watch what happens next week. Be happy that the Dems are willing to spend money they don’t have to try to get Ohio. No amount of money can change what has happened. Obama blew the whole billion dollar carefully crafted Messiah schtick in the first debate. He can’t go back. Romney blew away the billion dollar carefully crafted mean clown thing that the Dems tried to hang on him. Eyes are open. People are aware.

Be happy and upbeat. Let Gumby have his say. Refute him with numbers and real arguments, or ignore him if you can’t, or can’t bear it.

We are far more tolerant than Huffpost aren’t we?

But don’t turn him away. He might not have any other way to make a living.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:33 PM

It looks to me like you want government intervention to solve your “problem” instead of solving it yourself by exerting some self-control.

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Umm, nope, the owners od a place have to clean their place themselves and keep it that way, so to make sure their customers/patrons keep coming. in this case the responsibility lies with ed to ‘clean ghe place’ of mobys. your govt analogy is wrong. look at the frequency of posting of that idiot on this thread, apart from him responding to other people, or oher people to Hin, he just suffers from posting incontinence, regardless the nonsense he puts out there. Scroll past that and what happens is that you miss all the good and interesting posts by the real commenters here. That’s disruptive, and Ed should take care of it.

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:34 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

WRONG! Never pull your gun out unless you are prepared to use it.

Big Difference.

For most criminals, just the sight is enough to send them scurrying like the cockroaches they are.

Jvette on October 24, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I agree with that. If polls show Ohio over, nobody pays for more polls. And as such the Dems and the pollsters will do as much as possible to “keep Ohio in play”.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Exactly. The media narrative has always been that it’s going to come down to Ohio. And both the LSM nor the Dems are going to cling to their Marxist hopes for Ohio until the bitter end, now that Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and now maybe Colorado are falling by the wayside for them.

Oh, and folks, Obama’s still down significantly nationally in the two most credible tracking polls, and he’s not about to make any inroads on 50% if he hasn’t yet now that more and more about this Benghazi treachery comes out.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 7:36 PM

In 2004, although Bush was up big on almost every final Ohio poll, on election day the undecideds broke heavily towards Kerry.

Let’s hope the pattern repeats of undecided voters breaking for the challenger in Ohio.

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 7:36 PM

From Twitter:

“There is finally conclusive evidence that Osama bin Laden and Muammar Gaddafi are dead. They both registered to vote in Chicago.” – Janie Johnson

Seriously though did anyone see how Time included the reported 30% claimed to have voted already and of those it was 60-30 Obama? Seems they mixed that and their other results to come up with the +5 Obama.

ROFLMAO uh huh……

Check actual early voting in Ohio here:
2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee/early Ballot spread sheet.

Ronaldusmax on October 24, 2012 at 7:37 PM

I still think all data coming out of Ohio is manipulated.

nitzsche on October 24, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Seriously though did anyone see how Time included the reported 30% claimed to have voted already and of those it was 60-30 Obama? Seems they mixed that and their other results to come up with the +5 Obama.

ROFLMAO uh huh……

Check actual early voting in Ohio here:
2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee/early Ballot spread sheet.

Ronaldusmax on October 24, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Wow.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:40 PM

INC on October 24, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Geez and help was only an hour away and they did nothing. The video came from Fox. Why did they want our Ambassador dead?

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 7:41 PM

It’s huge, scumbag and my keys are still jingling, not that would understand the meaning of that.

It is time for you to go. Now.

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Doubt that huge retarded ignorant heard of the Velvet Revolution. They all love communism/socialism but they don’t want to hear how it was really like, it disrupts their utopic train of thought (or shall I say their stream of consciousness)

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:41 PM

But don’t turn him away. He might not have any other way to make a living.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Why, no, I disagree, there’s always prostitution, besides that wouldn’t be much different than what he is doing here.

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:45 PM

What is supposed to be the takeaway from this?

ChrisL on October 24, 2012 at 7:32 PM

It just shows that in Oct. and Nov. more people decide for challenger than incumbent. Undecideds break more for Challenger than Incumbent.

It would be more instructive if the thing was broken out election by election.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Why, no, I disagree, there’s always prostitution, besides that wouldn’t be much different than what he is doing here.

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I feel dirty now…

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Here’s where you can review the absentee votes by county and compare them to 2008 totals.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

In 2008, 1,351,226 absentee ballots were requested. 703,461 Democrats and Republicans returned their absentee ballots. 63% of the returned ballots came from Democrats. 37% came from Republicans.

In 2012, 1,116,643 absentee ballots have been requested. Thus far, 574,331 Democrats and Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 56% (322,647) of the returned ballots came from Democrats and 44% (251,684) have come from Republicans.

Democrats are down 11.1%.

Republicans are up 18.9%.

Swing: 30%.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:47 PM

That’s a very realistic possibility. Watch for bullcrap stories to float around that afternoon.

Also watch for a state like Michigan to get the insta-call if it goes for Obama 51-48, while Virginia will be “too close to call” for ages despite Romney being up 8. The usual media crap will apply. I was old enough to vote in ’04, but not nearly old enough to remember seeing a Democrat concede on election night. I hope this year’s buttkicking is enough to change that trend, but just so long as he goes…

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 7:08 PM

I remember how SLOW they were to call Bush states in 2004. This will only serve to cause riots sadly. Because they will cast doubt on the result, like they did in 2004 with OH, and 2000 with FL. But I think the riots will be on a much larger scale this time.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Geez and help was only an hour away and they did nothing. The video came from Fox. Why did they want our Ambassador dead?

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 7:41 PM

That’s the question. Political expediency seems the answer. Why else does Obama do anything? Was this to protect his Libyan/ME meme that everything is now fine? Or some kind of involvement with arms transfers? It’s pretty drastic to let people fend for themselves, denying security, and essentially throwing their lives away—so the last idea is becoming more plausible to me.

It was a screen grab. This is from Bryan Preston. Last paragraph:

Fox has run another email on TV, but so far not on the web, in which the mortar fire is included in the attack. That email, like the previous ones reported last night, came into the White House Situation Room during the attack. Mortar fire indicates pre-planning and scouting, not a spontaneous protest.

INC on October 24, 2012 at 7:49 PM

What is supposed to be the takeaway from this?

ChrisL on October 24, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Polls understate the challenger against the incumbent because undecideds overwhelmingly break for the challenger in the end, which is why 2004 was much closer than it was projected to be.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Why, no, I disagree, there’s always prostitution, besides that wouldn’t be much different than what he is doing here.

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I feel dirty now…

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:46 PM

You shouldn’t :), him on the other hand :)…but then I keep telling to myself that he probably enjoys it, and I don’t feel that bad for him anymore :)..

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Check actual early voting in Ohio here:
2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee/early Ballot spread sheet.

Wow, very informative chart. Thanks for posting that. Dem enthusiasm is definitely down huge all across the board. Makes these D+9 samples look really ridiculous now.

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 7:51 PM

MI: Tied per Foster McCollum White Baydoun

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I remember how SLOW they were to call Bush states in 2004. This will only serve to cause riots sadly. Because they will cast doubt on the result, like they did in 2004 with OH, and 2000 with FL. But I think the riots will be on a much larger scale this time.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I think there will be blood and few deaths. And the media is and will be wholly responsible for it.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I think there will be blood and (a) few deaths. And the media is and will be wholly responsible for it.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:52 PM

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Okay…Off the ledge. I’d still like an Ohio poll that shows us ahead, but it does seem like OH is were FL was two weeks ago. Unfortunately, there might not be enough for us to trend in time for the election as well as early voting banking votes for Barry. And I know for personal experience that you can regret an early vote.

As for comparisons, this is different from 2004 because Romney has been consistently ahead since the Red Debate. Kerry was never ahead and Bush was consistently 50%+. It’s just that the trend might not be enough. It started too late. I also think that although Jaques Francois won the debates, he didn’t really fundamentally change perceptions of himself. He was still a haughty jerk. Mittens went from being Gordon Gekko to being a slightly awkward earnest businessman. Mittens is never going to have the natural political skills of a Paul Ryan, but it is a relief for people after the Hope and Change marathon. Of course, what is like 2004 is Chicago’s strategy. If Barry wins, it will be because of ladyparts and by about one.point or a popular vote defeat. Hope he enjoys his Bush 2nd term in that case.

Of course, I’m still nervous. And yes I knew that McCain was probably going to lose. It was sort of obvious after the economy tanked and the banking system almost failed.

Illinidiva on October 24, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Latest Michigan Poll: Romney and Obama in Dead Heat at 47%

BOOM!

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on October 24, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Gloria Allred Met with Obama two weeks Before ‘October Surprise’ –

http://nation.foxnews.com/gloria-allred/2012/10/24/exclusive-gloria-allred-met-obama-two-weeks-october-surprise

Pork-Chop on October 24, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Also watch for a state like Michigan to get the insta-call if it goes for Obama 51-48, while Virginia will be “too close to call” for ages despite Romney being up 8. The usual media crap will apply. I was old enough to vote in ’04, but not nearly old enough to remember seeing a Democrat concede on election night. I hope this year’s buttkicking is enough to change that trend, but just so long as he goes…

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Beware of delay in calling the states, it’s only meant to plant doubts in people’s minds that there was some sort of fraud….enough for them to ask for a ‘re-count” and tcome up with the right number of votes (as in manufacture) that they found miraculously in the garbage bin where they had been discarded by mistake :).

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Latest Michigan Poll: Romney and Obama in Dead Heat at 47%

BOOM!

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on October 24, 2012 at 7:54 PM

You just beat me to it.

So, is this for real? If so, Team Liar defenses are getting thinner and thinner…

JohnGalt23 on October 24, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Ida know. This country is sure full up with stupid.

Like Rush says “What has he done to make you say that you want four more years of this?”

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Latest Michigan Poll: Romney and Obama in Dead Heat at 47%

BOOM!

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on October 24, 2012 at 7:54 PM

You just beat me to it.

So, is this for real? If so, Team Liar defenses are getting thinner and thinner…

JohnGalt23 on October 24, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Shut the front door!

Conservative4ev on October 24, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Beware of delay in calling the states, it’s only meant to plant doubts in people’s minds that there was some sort of fraud….enough for them to ask for a ‘re-count” and tcome up with the right number of votes (as in manufacture) that they found miraculously in the garbage bin where they had been discarded by mistake :).

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:58 PM

New Mexico famous for “finding” ballot boxes that “fell off” the truck that was delivering them for counting. Dona Ana County in Nov 2000, Rio Arriba County in 2004 or 2008.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Umm, nope, the owners od a place have to clean their place themselves and keep it that way, so to make sure their customers/patrons keep coming. in this case the responsibility lies with ed to ‘clean ghe place’ of mobys. your govt analogy is wrong. look at the frequency of posting of that idiot on this thread, apart from him responding to other people, or oher people to Hin, he just suffers from posting incontinence, regardless the nonsense he puts out there. Scroll past that and what happens is that you miss all the good and interesting posts by the real commenters here. That’s disruptive, and Ed should take care of it.

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I don’t like gumbyandpokey, but he doesn’t seem to be flaunting the TOS here more than many other posters we agree with. It’s pretty obvious that Ed agrees with me on this, and doesn’t see the situation with gumbyandpokey as you do, isn’t it?

If that doesn’t get you thinking more, do you believe that continuing to complain to Ed will eventually cause him to change his mind? If so, good luck with that – you’ll need it! :)

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Re: The Michign Poll

I’ve had a feeling for a while that it was a lot closer than some of the polls were making seem to be. As someone who works and lives in Metro Detroit, ther is a lot of enthusiasm for Romney.

GadsdenRattlers on October 24, 2012 at 8:06 PM

“flouting” not “flaunting”

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 8:06 PM

So Time cheated to get OH/Obama +5, and Michigan is tied.

That must be bad for Romney…. **/SARC**

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 8:06 PM

INC on October 24, 2012 at 7:49 PM

And per a comment by Preston at your link, we had planes overhead :(

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 8:08 PM

The polls can’t measure the number of Dems who voted for Obama in 08 and are going to sit this one out with fingers crossed for Romney. I suspect the number will be quite large in places like PA and Ohio. That’s why I think Romney will win both states. Obama can have the best GOTV org. in the world and it won’t matter to these voters.

Paddington on October 24, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Re: The Michign Poll

I’ve had a feeling for a while that it was a lot closer than some of the polls were making seem to be. As someone who works and lives in Metro Detroit, ther is a lot of enthusiasm for Romney.

GadsdenRattlers on October 24, 2012 at 8:06 PM

I would imagine that if the City wanted to demolish a large swath of abandoned houses and buildings they could probably just plant Romney signs in the front yards. It would be just a matter of time before they burn. If they did this before election night it would clear out additional fuel ahead of time to make the riots easier to control on Nov 7-10.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 8:10 PM

FMWB is a dem pollster too

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Apparently the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel won’t be endorsing anyone in the Pres race. Huge coup for Romney because it is a liberal paper and is probably mainly due to Budget’s influence. Despite being lefty, they have a weird buddy thing going on with Ryan. Additionally, the non endorsement is mainly business related.

Illinidiva on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Just out of curiosity, I wanted to know if Ohio voters were more motivated to vote in 2004 or 2008.

Guess what? Per USA today, Obama got fewer Ohio votes in 2008 (2,708,685 @51.2%) than Bush did in 2004 Per WaPo(2,796,147 @ 51%). And that was with an increase in voter registration from 2004 to 2008. Some people stayed home in 2008 obviously.

The main difference was John McCain got almost 4% fewer votes in 2008 than Bush did in 2004 (2,501,075 @ 47.2%))

All that to say voter turnout is crucial, but as far as I can tell the Obama GOTV machine was not as good in 2008 as Bush’s was in 2004 in terms of actual voters.

Just to compare, in the 2010 midterms, Rep. turnout was 2,053,075 for 54% of the vote, Dems were 1,534.864 for 40.9%. (from Wiki)

Mitsouko on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Whether Mitt wins Ohio or not, and I think there’s a good chance he will, conventional wisdom rarely prevails, and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see a state we’re not counting on Mitt carrying (like Pa. or Mich.) go red.

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Can anyone tell me where a pollster gets its phone numbers from.

if they are polling what turns out to be mostly urban areas they will get more democrats.

I think

gerrym51 on October 24, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Right Mover on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I’m with you.

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Anyone who says Romney is doing well in Ohio is intentionally misleading you. If he was in an OK position, you would see some better poll numbers (as is happening in Colorado).

gumbyandpokey

I hear Colorao is off the table for Romney.

By the way, if Romney isn’t doing well in Ohio, then neither is Obama. The state is a toss up at this point, and could go either way.

xblade on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Seeing lots of posts about gumby, but heck- Facebook is infinitely more annoying than gumby has ever been… Besides, he/she/it is entitled to his/her/their opinion, and I find it amusing to see the delusions of the left

whatabunchoflosers on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Just out of curiosity, I wanted to know if Ohio voters were more motivated to vote in 2004 or 2008.

Guess what? Per USA today, Obama got fewer Ohio votes in 2008 (2,708,685 @51.2%) than Bush did in 2004 Per WaPo(2,796,147 @ 51%). And that was with an increase in voter registration from 2004 to 2008. Some people stayed home in 2008 obviously.

The main difference was John McCain got almost 4% fewer votes in 2008 than Bush did in 2004 (2,501,075 @ 47.2%))

All that to say voter turnout is crucial, but as far as I can tell the Obama GOTV machine was not as good in 2008 as Bush’s was in 2004 in terms of actual voters.

Just to compare, in the 2010 midterms, Rep. turnout was 2,053,075 for 54% of the vote, Dems were 1,534.864 for 40.9%. (from Wiki)

Mitsouko on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

So the Legend of Obama the Ohio Dem Voter Turnout Messiah is a lie also? Whoodathunkit..

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Just out of curiosity, I wanted to know if Ohio voters were more motivated to vote in 2004 or 2008.

Guess what? Per USA today, Obama got fewer Ohio votes in 2008 (2,708,685 @51.2%) than Bush did in 2004 Per WaPo(2,796,147 @ 51%). And that was with an increase in voter registration from 2004 to 2008. Some people stayed home in 2008 obviously.

The main difference was John McCain got almost 4% fewer votes in 2008 than Bush did in 2004 (2,501,075 @ 47.2%))

All that to say voter turnout is crucial, but as far as I can tell the Obama GOTV machine was not as good in 2008 as Bush’s was in 2004 in terms of actual voters.

Just to compare, in the 2010 midterms, Rep. turnout was 2,053,075 for 54% of the vote, Dems were 1,534.864 for 40.9%. (from Wiki)

Mitsouko on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Now that is interesting…have a link?

ChrisL on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Latest Michigan Poll: Romney and Obama in Dead Heat at 47%

BOOM!

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on October 24, 2012 at 7:54 PM

You just beat me to it.

So, is this for real? If so, Team Liar defenses are getting thinner and thinner…

JohnGalt23 on October 24, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Shut the front door!

Conservative4ev on October 24, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Damn! If it’s that close in Michigan, Ohio is a LOCK for Romney.

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Guess what? Per USA today, Obama got fewer Ohio votes in 2008 (2,708,685 @51.2%) than Bush did in 2004 Per WaPo(2,796,147 @ 51%). And that was with an increase in voter registration from 2004 to 2008. Some people stayed home in 2008 obviously.

The main difference was John McCain got almost 4% fewer votes in 2008 than Bush did in 2004 (2,501,075 @ 47.2%))

Mitsouko on October 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

That does not agree with the stats on Wikipedia.

Ohio in 2004

Ohio in 2008

JenWestin on October 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Damn! If it’s that close in Michigan, Ohio is a LOCK for Romney.

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Now this is what they are actually looking at in the White House Situation Room. Having to be bothered with a re-election is so distracting, damn-it.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 8:25 PM

October 24, 2012, 1:45 PM274 Comments
How Bill Clinton May Have Hurt the Obama Campaign
By MATT BAI

Oh my is the left starting the blame game already?

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 8:26 PM

I hear Colorao is off the table for Romney.

By the way, if Romney isn’t doing well in Ohio, then neither is Obama. The state is a toss up at this point, and could go either way.

xblade on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Colorado is off the table for Romney?

JPeterman on October 24, 2012 at 8:27 PM

That does not agree with the stats on Wikipedia.

Ohio in 2004

Ohio in 2008

JenWestin on October 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Sorry, I don’t know why that is.

Mitsouko on October 24, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 7:10 PM

I keep pointing the same info, incessantly, and people do not ingest it.

Take those numbers, add in the population shift away from the cities and towards the exurbs.

———————————————————————

Ohio Voter Roll

2008 – 8.3 Million

2012 – 7.8 Million

500,000 or 6% of 2008 voters – gone.

Cuyahoga County

2008 – 1.1 Mil

2012 – 900K

200k or or 20% of Cuyahoga County voters – gone.

640K total votes in ’08

440 – Obama 200 – McCain

Early Voting – Cuyahoga Voting

2008 231500 (T) 119893(D) 35068(R) 52%(D) 15%(R) = 36.64% (D)
2012 256916 130175(D) 50667(R) 51%(D) 20%(R) = 30.95%(D)

So Cuyahoga, on its own, has dropped 5%.

And the ceiling for Cuyahoga is much lower for Obama, because of the voter roles and population shifts.

Hamilton County – Cincinnati

2008 53/46 Obama – 606K registered

2012 – 540K

66K or 11% of Hamilton County voters – gone

——————————————————————–

Republican Early voters statewdie are steady or jumped up to change a 2008 deficit into a gain, while Dem counties have all dropped. In some cases, it’s been an implosion.

Factor in population shifts, such as -250K from Cuyahoga County from ’07 to ’11…

…then realize Obama only won in ’08 by 260K people…

And you begin to see, that the only way Barry can carry the state is if he finds, literally finds, a whole new group of voters.

Which is why he targets latinos and colleges.

Because the exurbs will cancel out the Big City numbers.

Even Franklin County, which is Columbus and went Obama in ’08 absentee, is now trending Romney. If that holds, DOA.

He’s also losing the suburbs in the Northeast, and that is what should finish him off.

So what you’re hearing in the media, is an attempt to not deflate Dems before election day, or it will be a repeat of 1980.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

That same Michigan pollster had Zero up 49-46 two weeks ago. Today? All tied up.

BOOM!

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

ALLRED MET OBAMA TWO WEEKS BEFORE ‘OCTOBER SURPRISE’ – Drudge Report Headline

http://nation.foxnews.com/gloria-allred/2012/10/24/exclusive-gloria-allred-met-obama-two-weeks-october-surprise

Zcat on October 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I don’t like gumbyandpokey, but he doesn’t seem to be flaunting the TOS here more than many other posters we agree with. It’s pretty obvious that Ed agrees with me on this, and doesn’t see the situation with gumbyandpokey as you do, isn’t it?

If that doesn’t get you thinking more, do you believe that continuing to complain to Ed will eventually cause him to change his mind? If so, good luck with that – you’ll need it! :)

Anti-Control on October 24, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Doesn’t mean one can’t try :)…on a serious note, trolling is a bannable (is there such a word? :) offence on most serious blogs for a reason, that’s coz it’s disruptive. I normally have a high threshold of tolerance for the likes of him, and quite a bit of a (French :) sense of humor…I can ignore him for the most part, but when I can’t read a thread because of his posting diarrhea routine (more like copying and pasting from various polls followed by lies about their internals and followed by short phrases such as ‘told ya’ :), then it’s not fun anymore…it’s just plain distracting and disruptive (not to mention the intentional disinformation) since we all know he lies through his teeth…and this is the purpose and the essence of trolling, that’s what he does best…he has no interest in the dialogue or interaction or bringing new info to the table, most people are aware of the polls he copies and pastes here in a crazed frenzy…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I hear Colorao is off the table for Romney.

By the way, if Romney isn’t doing well in Ohio, then neither is Obama. The state is a toss up at this point, and could go either way.

xblade on October 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Where did you come up with that?they were tied yesterday.

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I think some are getting delusional with Ohio and other states. Romney is not going to win Ohio. I’d love for that not to be the case but it’s the truth. All polls can’t be wrong. Obama is ahead in all of them for a reason.

And while id love to buy into some polling conspiracy, sorry but that’s bogus. I’m sure many said the same thing in 2008, saying the polling was rigged, how’d that turn out?

We need to be a bit more honest with ourselves and realize its going to be a close race but without Ohio, its going to be very difficult to win. Not impossible, but too many things have to go right without Ohio, and I just don’t see us being that lucky. And I never underestimate the amount of dumb people in the country who vote.

bucsox79 on October 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

bucsox79 on October 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Sure thing. You believe polls that have a huge D turn out? Start looking at the REAL data coming in to the SoS site.

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 8:37 PM

It just shows that in Oct. and Nov. more people decide for challenger than incumbent. Undecideds break more for Challenger than Incumbent.

oldroy

It also shows that the person leading in October and November tends to win.

Something not right about the actual results column though. If it’s referring to the actual final election results, shouldn’t all those numbers be the same? The final numbers are what they are. They don’t change because you took a poll in March.

xblade on October 24, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Oh my is the left starting the blame game already?

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Yup.

Dems Begin the Post-Obama Blame Game

“…the general thrust of his piece, points to an effort by Obama’s chief strategists to get out in front of the story of who led the president to defeat…”

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Where did you come up with that?they were tied yesterday.

jimver

Ask Gumby. He’s the one who assured us a week or two ago that Colorado was off the table for Romney.

xblade on October 24, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Even Franklin County, which is Columbus and went Obama in ’08 absentee, is now trending Romney. If that holds, DOA.

budfox on October 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Franklin broken down:

2008:

Absentee ballots requested: 274,610

AB returned: 88,445 (32%)

Democrats returned: 48,111 (54.4%)

Republicans returned: 40,334 (45.6%)

In 2008, 18% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 15% of Republicans did.

2012:

Absentee ballots requested: 189,754

AB returned: 62,610 (40%)

Democrats returned: 29,277 (46.8%)

Republicans returned: 33,333 (53.2%)

In 2012, 15% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. Thus far, 18% of Republicans have.

Democrats have collapsed. Republicans have returned a majority of the ballots. Finally, the two parties have flipped positions on returns as a percentage of absentee ballots requested from those in 2008.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Where did you come up with that?they were tied yesterday.

jimver

Ask Gumby. He’s the one who assured us a week or two ago that Colorado was off the table for Romney.

xblade on October 24, 2012 at 8:40 PM

:) dang, I should have known :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Interesting that Rasmussen, would show such an improvement. The rest of the polls need to be unskewed to get to reality. It’s starting to look like a 300+ electoral vote victory for Romney! Be certain that the Obama jihadi media will be out to Lie, Cheat & Steal, in order to get the Marxist Messiah elected before they have to cover for Obama’s voter fraud in so many states! The Obama Jihadi media needs to be treated like muslim jihadis and humiliated, after they are beaten like a Red Headed Stepchild in the ghetto! If not, you will only encourage and embolden them for their next attack! Here’s how to take on the Obama Jihadi media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 24, 2012 at 8:44 PM

You believe polls that have a huge D turn out? Start looking at the REAL data coming in to the SoS site.

wargamer6

Yes. Initially I didn’t but I’m starting to more. And even if you take away some of the heavy D sample, Obama still is ahead. Anyway you look at it, its a must win state and Romney doesn’t look to be taking it. If he hasn’t gotten higher numbers there by now, its not going to happen in the last two weeks.

bucsox79 on October 24, 2012 at 8:45 PM

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Speaking of which, whatever happened to the uppereastbasement?

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 8:47 PM

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