New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 48

posted at 4:41 pm on October 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

New from Rasmussen, it’s the second poll in as many days showing Romney up two points in NH. Of the last eight polls taken in the state, he leads in four, is tied in two more, trails by a single point in another, and the last is an outlier. (Rasmussen’s last poll of NH, taken eight days ago, had Obama up by a point.) Why should you care about that? Simple: If Ohio doesn’t pan out for Mitt, his lone remaining path to the presidency may well be hitting an exacta with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If he wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, all of which are big but necessary ifs, that’ll put him at 257 in RCP’s electoral vote model. He can then get to 270 either with Ohio (18) or with NH + WI (14). I’m thinking those two states are a bit likelier to turn red than, say, Iowa or Nevada, not only because of the current RCP poll averages but because of the GOP ticket’s regional ties to them. (Romney not only governed the state next door, he has a vacation home in New Hampshire.) Besides, Iowa and Nevada each have only six EVs, so the most they can do for him without winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Ohio is clinch a dreaded 269-269 tie. But then, the odds of Mitt winning IA and NV (or PA or MI) while losing the other three seem astronomical. So Ohio remains Plan A, but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are Plan B. He’s on track, narrowly, in the latter state, but there hasn’t been a new poll of Wisconsin since Sunday. Maybe tomorrow? Until then, this intriguing tidbit will have to do:

Priorities USA is, of course, Obama’s Super PAC. Team O is talking verrrry tough to Mark Halperin (“I was struck by the expression of near certainty that their candidate would be re-elected”), but Josh Kraushaar makes a nice point about the battleground states. One thing they have in common is that they’re not in O’s demographic sweet spot:

The one hole in that argument is their own acknowledgment of where they’re running strongest — the five-state firewall of OH, IA, NH, NV and WI. With the notable exception of NV, these are heavily-white states and skew older. These aren’t the states where their base coalition; it’s where they’re running competitively enough with white voters (particularly working-class women). And implicity, they acknowledge they’re not ahead (they’re tied, presumably) in the states with the highest youth/minority vote combo: VA, NC and CO.

So if the GOTV operation is firing on all cylinders in a state like VA but the race is even, one would imagine he’s struggling with white voters. And in order to win those firewall states, he has to overperform his natl average with those same white voters.

Via John McCormack of the Standard, the early voting totals among O’s base in Virginia are apparently lagging:

Per RCP’s EV projections, if Obama holds on in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Nevada, he’s at 249 and needs to find 21 votes between Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Virginia has the second-most EVs in that list behind Ohio, so if he loses them both, he’ll have to win all three of the others to clinch. Not impossible, but if the bigger battleground states are tilting away from him, it’d be some trick if he figured out a way to reverse that momentum in the smaller ones and pile up enough of them to eke over the finish line.

Update: Just as I’m writing this, Time is out with a new poll of Ohio showing Obama up by five. However:


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“You have two races in Pennsylvania, not just one. If this was just the president’s race and I saw the numbers that I was seeing, I’d say, ‘Ah, I’m not so sure I believe that.’ But there’s a senate race going in on Pennsylvania right now, too, that’s between an incumbent Democratic senator and a challenger — and he was given no chance to win this race. And his numbers are even a little better than Romney’s numbers. So I do believe that Pennsylvania has moved.”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/24/rick-santorum-republicans-can-pull-off-a-surprise-in-pennsylvania/#ixzz2AFpWwt2g

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Everyone ignore gumby. He’s an idiot.

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:30 PM

CNN poll has Romney up 15 with indies.

Romney wins Ohio if this is true.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:30 PM

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Yeah, I’m sure we could have a D+ 25-35 poll out there that it could crow about.

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

“Romney slips from 51 to 50 in Gallup…oh, the free fall!

newtopia on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM”

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I completely understand. I haven’t put my RR sticker on my new car for fear of vandalism by a lefty loon. (I work for OSU.)

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:26 PM

My wife caught some jackwads trying to steal the Romney and Mandel signs from our yard in the middle of the night (I was out of town working in upstate New York, as I do often). My wife is a concealed carry holder and a rabid gun nut. They couldn’t get away fast enough when she came out with her Glock 9, yelling her head off. I’m guessing they had soiled pants when they got home.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

“CNN poll has Romney up 15 with indies.

Romney wins Ohio if this is true.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:30 PM”

If Romney is really up anywhere close to that much with Independents and he still loses, then nobody should tailor their campaigns to them ever again, which is what Romney did.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

mwahahah i got a knock on my door today from some yahoo i will not name who was going door to door on behalf of the TIC campaign… when he left 30 minutes later my husband was grinning from ear to ear and the poor man was repeating himself over and over… you have some great points… then he said he was gonna go read the whole obamacare bill in its entirety. Score one for katee…. 0 for Toddler in Chief… yay

katee bayer on October 24, 2012 at 5:33 PM

I think that you’re taking some of the remarks here the wrong way. Outlining a solid Plan B is not giving up on OH. It is merely suggesting that it is still possible to lose it and make up the difference elsewhere. I would expect Mitt’s campaign to know this full well and to be planning on such contingencies.

MJBrutus on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

.
All of which they are doing.

Romney/Ryan just did the new Gold Standard in debate prep and performance. Is it such a leap to give them credit for having thought through the final two weeks of the campaign?

(BTW, remember to thank God for Tagg Romney who stepped up and got Mitt to be Mitt.)

If someone has a “new idea” they don’t think the RR campaign has thought of, send them an email and a donation – do not post it on here for public consumption.

If you want to weep and wail … please do so on HuffPo – so you will give the SCOAMF and his ilk a false sense of confidence.

Doing it here is equivalent to just being another troll.

(Lanceman excluded – because he’s only trolling to pi$$ off the people responding to Gumbpo)

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 5:33 PM

I’m in Texas. We’re just Cruzing….

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Dang you happy cruzers :), ya’ll move to Cali and win this for us too :)…or if you don’t wanna move here, at least drive here for the day and vote twice :)…it’s the norm/law of the land here :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:33 PM

“Stevens says it was scary to look out the window to see flames leaping into the night.

“To come into someone’s gated fenced front yard and set something on fire? Something could have happened,” she says…”

http://www.wtop.com//159/3091012/Romney-sign-burning-in-Leesburg-considered-arson

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:34 PM

BTW, ABC/Wash Post still has Romney +1 the sample is D+4. Romney wins indies by 12.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:34 PM

I completely understand. I haven’t put my RR sticker on my new car for fear of vandalism by a lefty loon. (I work for OSU.)

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:26 PM

My wife caught some jackwads trying to steal the Romney and Mandel signs from our yard in the middle of the night (I was out of town working in upstate New York, as I do often). My wife is a concealed carry holder and a rabid gun nut. They couldn’t get away fast enough when she came out with her Glock 9, yelling her head off. I’m guessing they had soiled pants when they got home.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

I do feel for you, too. I wouldn’t want to drive around OSU with a Romney sticker either. I won’t put one on my car because I have to go to New York so often.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Why is the MSM ignoring the FACT that Mourdock’s opponent, Indiana congressman Joe Donnelly, also describes himself as pro-life and supported a bill backed by Todd Akin that banned government funding for abortions except in certain cases such as “forcible rape”?

Huh? What’s that you said? Crickets? Can you say “Crickets” a little louder?

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Just in the absentee ballots request alone the democrats are down in 2012 by 130,000 ballots compared to 2008

They are filled out, sitting in the trunk of a Buick waiting for the recount when they will magically be “found.”

tdarrington on October 24, 2012 at 5:36 PM

If Romney is really up anywhere close to that much with Independents and he still loses, then nobody should tailor their campaigns to them ever again, which is what Romney did.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

That meant nothing that I could grok.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:36 PM

My wife caught some jackwads trying to steal the Romney and Mandel signs from our yard in the middle of the night (I was out of town working in upstate New York, as I do often). My wife is a concealed carry holder and a rabid gun nut. They couldn’t get away fast enough when she came out with her Glock 9, yelling her head off. I’m guessing they had soiled pants when they got home.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

LOL I think I’d like your wife.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Bwa wah waaa woo awww ah ba wa.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:37 PM

I do feel for you, too. I wouldn’t want to drive around OSU with a Romney sticker either. I won’t put one on my car because I have to go to New York so often.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Freedom of speech, as long as you agree with me.

tdarrington on October 24, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Are you sure that you want to make predictions about what will happen tomorrow? Remember this?

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I wonder what the liberal poll freaks will do after the election, when there is no more polling? Tout, “I was right about State X all along,” even if Romney wins despite that state?

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:38 PM

LOL I think I’d like your wife.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I think I would like her too. I know I won’t f@@k with her yard signs!

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread.

So, Romney is still leading.

sentinelrules on October 24, 2012 at 5:39 PM

BTW, ABC/Wash Post still has Romney +1 the sample is D+4. Romney wins indies by 12.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Fantastic news for Romney then.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:39 PM

LOL I think I’d like your wife.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I think I would like her too. I know I won’t f@@k with her yard signs!

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:39 PM

LOL!

She’s a big-time Reagan and NRA gal.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:40 PM

‏@NumbersMuncher
ABC/WaPO: Obama scored a modest win in the debate, but it’s Romney who moved the needle among voters,including indys,w/ his performances.

midgeorgian on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

The Ohio polls are getting me a bit worried now. Not trying to be a downer or alarmist, but it is a bit worrying that not a single poll has shown Romney ahead so far, less than 2 weeks before the election.

At this point in 2004 most of the polls showed Bush ahead. He won Ohio by a small 2.1%.

Unless Ohio starts moving a bit more towards Romney next week…gumby might end up being right after all.

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

She’s a big-time Reagan and NRA gal.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:40 PM

My regards to the Lady!

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Dayton.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

You’re far enough south to be part of that Ohio demographic that doesn’t like it when they’ve been fooled, and they know they’ve been fooled. Was over in Cincinnati a few weeks ago and there were R&R signs everywhere. Saw a few Obama bumper stickers, but that was it. Four years ago was the exact opposite. I see no signs for either of them on this side of the river, but then, well, you know how that goes. Our local TV is from Ohio and although I only watch it for a few minutes in the morning, the ads are non-stop and it seems that there are two Romney ads for every one of O’s.

Norky on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

If Romney is really up anywhere close to that much with Independents and he still loses, then nobody should tailor their campaigns to them ever again, which is what Romney did.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Translation Part Deux:

(See my Part one on another thread)

“I better come up with some alternative reasoning to
get me out of this giant Sh*thole I’ve dug for myself
over the last month on this website”

ToddPA on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Why are you doing this? Sarcasm?…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

It’s my turn to be the Gumbo today.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Which is a good thing, since gumbey’s presence here was only sporadic today…I had started to experience a feeling of loss until I saw your posts impersonating him :) …now it’s all good again :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Don’t post much, but read pretty much every post…I knew Lance was jerkin’ the chain!

Chewy the Lab on October 24, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Your feeling are wrong… Romney is going to win Ohio by 2 to 3 points… Just in the absentee ballots request alone the democrats are down in 2012 by 130,000 ballots compared to 2008. This means, with that same ratio of decline in the overall vote (absentee+ in person vote), Obama would lose around 350,000 votes compared to 2008… Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 votes… Obama is going to lose Ohio…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

We were ALL saying the same in 2008. Truth be told, 2008 polls in OH, PA, and even FL actually underestimated Obama’s support in 2008. AP wrote about that.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/were-the-polls-right/

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:44 PM

ToddPA on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Don’t explain, don’t try to reason with it, don’t argue with it.

Just bash the whacker.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:38 PM

*hee hee* You slay me, girl.

SailorMark on October 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Some good info about Ohio:

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican–a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican–only a five point gap.

The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.

–Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20 point shift.

–Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18 point shift.

–Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15 point shift.

–Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) – 6 point shift.

–Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.

–Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10 point shift.

–Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23 point shift.

–Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17 point shift.

–Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6 point shift.

–Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16 point shift.

–Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM – 24 point shift.

–Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17 point shift.

–Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27 point shift.

–Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14 point shift.

–Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27 point shift.

–Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11 point shift.

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

A reminder for those who choose to urinate in their own clothes at the polls:

OHIO – 2004

Survey USA| 10/23-10/25
831 LV
3.5
47
50
-
Kerry +3

ARG | 10/23-10/25
600 LV
4.0
47
49
-
Kerry +2

LA Times | 10/22-10/26
585 LV
4.0
44
50
-
Kerry +6

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

BTW, it’s funny that media polls always have huge Democrat over-samples(CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, and even Fox).

Many pollsters will start moving to realistic samples in the next week, if they haven’t already. Zogby lost all credibility when he stuck with huge Democrat oversampling in 2004, his poll predicated Kerry winning 311-213. Now Zogby Poll is nothing more than a joke.

midgeorgian on October 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

My wife is a concealed carry holder and a rabid gun nut. They couldn’t get away fast enough when she came out with her Glock 9, yelling her head off. I’m guessing they had soiled pants when they got home.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

…and remember, BENGAZI, drip, drip, drip, drip!

Chewy the Lab on October 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Same here in NV. Senate seat and 2 House seats seem to be safely in GOP hands as of now, and as of last 2-3 weeks actually. And yet media somehow insist that same people who are voting for GOP in these 3 races will then somehow vote for Hussein.

Numbers just don’t jive, AT ALL. Media are simply trying to all they can to move the election one way.

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Still looking like 2004. I’m going to need to be talked off a ledge every day. Gosh, I’d prefer if there wasn’t an inkling of hope almost.

Illinidiva on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

“Unless Ohio starts moving a bit more towards Romney next week…gumby might end up being right after all.

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM”

I will be here to accept my accolades on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Who said she didn’t intend to use it?

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Also, because his poll was one the few that had Gore winning the popular vote in 2000 and he was close in the Electoral College, Liberals followed John Zogby’s predictions like the Gospel in 2004, much in the same way they follow Nate Silver.

midgeorgian on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

riddick on October 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

I’m hoping NV delivers the win to Romney, to make up for Reid.

SailorMark on October 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

You are correct on the rule, wrong on the observation.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM

My regards to the Lady!

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Thanks!

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Sean Kedzie would say that it probably wasn’t dumb.

weaselyone on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

The polls were right about Ohio in 04, and are right this year, too…

Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5, Nader 2.5 (Bush +3.5)
Poll | Date
Sample
MoE
Bush
Kerry
Nader
Spread
RCP Average | 10/25-11/1
-
-
48.8
46.7
Off Ballot
Bush +2.1
Zogby | 10/29-11/1
601 LV
4.1
49
43
-
Bush +6
FOX News | 10/30-31
700 LV
3.0
50
47
-
Bush +3
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31
816 LV
3.5
49
47
-
Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31
1111 LV
4.0
46
50
-
Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31
877LV
3.3
50.1
49.2
-
Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29
625 LV
4.0
48
46
-
Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31
600 LV
4.0
50
46
-
Bush +4
Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28
1500 LV
2.6
48
45
-
Bush +3

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

At this point in 2004 most of the polls showed Bush ahead. He won Ohio by a small 2.1%.

Unless Ohio starts moving a bit more towards Romney next…

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Oh, woe is you :)… There’s nothing you can do about it anyways, right…so, you might as well entertain some optimistic thoughts and project less pessimism, it’s not good for your health :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:51 PM

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 5:33 PM

With the exception of a few Mobys and concern trolls, we all want Romney to win, but we can’t ALL act like cheerleaders. If you want a cheerleader wait until ManlyRush returns.

If we want Romney to win we have to all do our best to push him across the finish line.

Can’t ignore reality.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:51 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

The way they retreated, she figured out in a couple of seconds what was up and that it wasn’t worth shooting them.

And, btw, kiss my a$$.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

I completely understand. I haven’t put my RR sticker on my new car for fear of vandalism by a lefty loon. (I work for OSU.)

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:26 PM

.
Let me suggest a better reason for NOT having yard signs or bumper stickers displayed.

It is the same reason I am not answering the 6 – 12 “polling” calls/day.

What the SCOAMF and the LSM and the polling companies with their 9% response rate can’t get their arms around is there are tens of millions of people who are going to show up “out of nowhere” and vote for Romney.

If they can’t get their arms around us before November 6th … it will be far too late to do ANYTHING to counteract our votes on November 6th.

BTW, for those of you who like riddles, the answers the LSM will be looking for on Election Night, have ALL been posted on here over the last 6 months.

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I imagine she had full intent from the start. The vandals wisely didn’t didn’t force her need to act on the intent.

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

When the polls come out mid week next week we’ll see that they will nearly match these then won’t we? Can’t really compare polls that are 2-3 weeks out from the election with polls that were a week out from the election, can we?

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Oh, woe is you :)… There’s nothing you can do about it anyways, right…so, you might as well entertain some optimistic thoughts and project less pessimism, it’s not good for your health :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Of course we can do something. Next 13 days… Being optimistic is good, but ignoring reality will be like what happened in 2008 here.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

The polls were right about Ohio in 04, and are right this year, too…

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

No they aren’t.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

We were ALL saying the same in 2008. Truth be told, 2008 polls in OH, PA, and even FL actually underestimated Obama’s support in 2008. AP wrote about that.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/05/were-the-polls-right/

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:44 PM

I KNEW Obama would win long before this time in 2008.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

I imagine she had full intent from the start. The vandals wisely didn’t didn’t force her need to act on the intent.

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Exactly.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:55 PM

The polls were right about Ohio in 04, and are right this year, too…

Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5, Nader 2.5 (Bush +3.5)

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Oh, and Bush didn’t run against Gore in 2004, you moron.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Somehow, it’s always tomorrow that will be fun. Yet each time tomorrow gets here, Mitt is a little higher than the previous day.

It’s almost like you’re just trying to present an air of optimism and certainty while you watch the polls fall apart for Obama….

You wouldn’t do that, would you?

tom on October 24, 2012 at 5:56 PM

No they aren’t.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

..not to single you out on this but we should just IGNORE this fool. His stuff is crap.

The War Planner on October 24, 2012 at 5:56 PM

The polls were right about Ohio in 04, and are right this year, too…

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

And, Gallup has been right since 1936. No presidential candidate that has hit 50% in the Gallup poll with LV in mid-October since 1936 has gone on to lose in November.

Polls, schmolls.

Which polls and polling history should we ignore, Gums?

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:57 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

You can’t compare Ohio 2004 polling and Ohio 2012 because of early voting, which has dramatically increased in Ohio and makes it more difficult to poll. Democrats tend to vote early, and anyone who has already voted will automatically make it through a LV screen. This guarantees that Democrats will be over-sampled.

Democrats early voting numbers are down considerably from 2008 – and with an outstanding Republican ground game – everything points to Romney winning Ohio by 2-4 pts.

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Look at the URL for this Reuters about their poll:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/romney-steals-narrow-lead-obama-election-nears-185135786.html

Romney “steals” narrow lead.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:57 PM

The polls were right about Ohio in 04, and are right this year, too…

Ohio ( 20 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 50.0, Gore 46.5, Nader 2.5 (Bush +3.5)

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Oh, and Bush didn’t run against Gore in 2004, you moron.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:55 PM

That’s not fair. You’re confusing him. How’s he supposed to keep track of years?

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:58 PM

“Are you sure that you want to make predictions about what will happen tomorrow? Remember this?

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:38 PM”

I was wrong. I thought Gallup would move in one big swoop, but it took a few more days, moved gradually, and the Obama surge isn’t done yet. Since he’s beaten Romney in 3 straight days of sampling, he will go ahead and stay ahead until at least the end of next week and probably until election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

The Ohio polls are getting me a bit worried now. Not trying to be a downer or alarmist, but it is a bit worrying that not a single poll has shown Romney ahead so far, less than 2 weeks before the election.

At this point in 2004 most of the polls showed Bush ahead. He won Ohio by a small 2.1%.

Unless Ohio starts moving a bit more towards Romney next week…gumby might end up being right after all.

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

This

ChrisL on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

I sure hope the College Republican groups in New Hampshire are working in overdrive mode to get their fellow students to vote for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan!

If you know any students at large New Hampshire Colleges/Universities like:

- Dartmouth College
- Keene State College
- Plymouth State University
- Saint Anselm College
- Southern New Hampshire University
- University of New Hampshire

give your friends a call NOW to make sure they are ready to vote properly.

The best chance for students to be employed after graduation is to elect Mitt Romney to be our President!

wren on October 24, 2012 at 6:00 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012

…your hand must be stiff and your elbow ready to fall off!

KOOLAID2 on October 24, 2012 at 6:00 PM

I was wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

As always.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Look at the way Ohio and Wisconsin have been trending. Ohio seems too be in love with their bailouts, and they rejected public sector union reforms. The poll numbers haven’t budged for weeks despite all the money being thrown at it. Ohio has gotten a taste of the the government tit and they don’t care how awful Obama has been.

Wisconsin completely defanged and demoralized the left and walker, maybe the most radical reform governor favoring small government policies cruised to victory in a recall election that unions spent millions on. GOP GOTV proved decisive and it looks like Wisconsin is ready to flip red, while Ohio is trending towards becoming a new California.

I don’t believe any of the anecdotal “yard sign” evidence either. Know why? I live in the ultimate socialist paradise of Cali, and there are no yard signs, bumper stickers or Obama t shirts here. Nothing. Not even in Berkeley! However, I have no delusions about who these commie whackos are supporting.

1984 in real life on October 24, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Still waiting for Steyn to write about the silly wind farm being built just south of where he lives in Grafton County. Talk about a Springfield Monorail…

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

I like the Simpsons reference. :)

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM

This wind farm is a total Leftist clusterfark.

1. Being outsourced to a Spanish company.

2. Is being constructed about 1 mile from the southern border of the White Mountain National Forest.

3. Located on the southern edge of a huge military training area (military airspace).

4. Located directly across the valley from one of the only Peregrine Falcon nesting sites in NH.

5. Hardly needed any local approval as the town it is in does not even have zoning.

6. The Activist NH Supreme Court refused to hear the objections of those living in the town immediately to the north.

7. The 24 wind towers are each 4 times taller than the proposed Northern Pass Transmission towers the Left hates.

8. And last, but certainly not least, all of the wind power produced there will be outsourced. To the Blue State of Massachusetts.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

I still trust Ras over all other polls, so while 48 vs 48 is not bad, I can start breathing easier when I see Ohio at +1 Romney or more. Let’s hope next week….

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Look at the URL for this Reuters about their poll:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/romney-steals-narrow-lead-obama-election-nears-185135786.html

Romney “steals” narrow lead.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:57 PM

“Online Tracking Poll” – whatever the hell that is.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

This

ChrisL on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Not that

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

At this point in 2004 most of the polls showed Bush ahead. He won Ohio by a small 2.1%.

Unless Ohio starts moving a bit more towards Romney next…

tkyang99 on October 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Survey USA| 10/23-10/25 Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25 Kerry +2
LA Times | 10/22-10/26 Kerry +6
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/22-24 Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26 Bush +4
Scripps | 10/17-10/21 Kerry +4
Gallup | 10/17-10/20 Kerry +1
FOX News | 10/17-10/18 Bush +5
SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18 Kerry +2
Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 Bush +1
ABC News | 10/14-10/17 Kerry +3

Looks like the polls this time of year had Kerry up by an average of a little less than 1%. Then came Ohio’s break toward the GOP, that usually starts showing when October changes to November.

I’m willing to put money down that most of those 2004 polls didn’t have D+7 or D+9 samples either.

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

I will be here to accept my accolades on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

You’ll win a pole with spikes to poke yourself with.

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM

I’m willing to put money down that most of those 2004 polls didn’t have D+7 or D+9 samples either.

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Exactamundo.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Seriously, I want to comment those of you that can read the tea leaves and see that Ohio isn’t going to break for Romney. Overly good samples (rasmussen) or overly bad samples (cnn), the poll are almost always bad news for Mitt.

I’m glad to see some reality creeping in as we get closer to election day.

And I hope the realists here will understand that they’ve been deceived and lied to by the partisans who kept saying “everything is OK” and “romney will win ohio” when even they knew the truth.

You’ll get hacks like Hugh Hewitt on election day spouting nonsense about how great turnout is and how all the turnout goals are being met, as he did in 08, only to realize when Ohio is lost, that you were being fed a big steaming pile of crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Oh, woe is you :)… There’s nothing you can do about it anyways, right…so, you might as well entertain some optimistic thoughts and project less pessimism, it’s not good for your health :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Of course we can do something. Next 13 days… Being optimistic is good, but ignoring reality will be like what happened in 2008 here.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

and your supposed realism can change the results of this race exactly how?? You are not seriously suggesting that any of the optimists here (and I agree some are a bit over the top with it) won’t vote because they think that Romney has the election in the bag, right?? So, I say, que sera, sera, all we can do at this point is vote and try to persuade other of the same mind to vote too…nobody ignores reality, but there’s a limit to what you can do to win the elections…beyond that, you can choose to be either pessimisic or optimistic about it, until we have the results…my point was that pessimism is not good for the mind or the health in general….and it’s a fact that pessimism is more of a factor in depreșsing the vote turnout than exaggerated optimism…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Look at the URL for this Reuters about their poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/romney-steals-narrow-lead-obama-election-nears-185135786.html

Romney “steals” narrow lead.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:57 PM

“Online Tracking Poll” – whatever the hell that is.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Those are garbage polls, because they don’t reflect a random sample of the population. Those who take such “polls” volunteer to take them.

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I KNEW Obama would win long before this time in 2008.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Most 80% here in 2008, I admit myself included really thought McCain would win all the way up to the very end. ManlyRush being the one with “inside info” assuring us “We would win.” He was basically the opposite of GumbyPokeMe. Look at some of these threads: http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/page/17/

I know when Election night came how bad it felt. I don’t want to experience that again.

We all need to collectively for the next 13 days think what we can do to push Romney over the top.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I’m glad to see some reality creeping in as we get closer to election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:03 PM

What you really mean is you are happy to see some moby Eeyores who are buying your swill.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Can’t ignore reality.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:51 PM

.
Raquel, with all due respect, you and the others fretting every other day about Ohio ARE ignoring reality.

You are not listening to the “on the ground” observations of the people who live here.

You are ignoring the posts on absentee ballots in hand:

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

You are ignoring the information on the GOTV effort the RR campaign has put together in Ohio.

You are ignoring the big differences in party identification between 2008 and 2012.

You are ignoring the big differences in voter enthusiasm.

You are ignoring the African American ministers who are telling their church members to stay home and not vote.

You are ignoring the big advantage in independent voters Romney has this year.

What you ARE listening to is the LSM and the skewed polls and then giving in to YOUR fears.

You ARE being disrepectful of those who live in Ohio and have patiently tried to point out all of these positives by using the term cheerleaders.

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

“urvey USA| 10/23-10/25 Kerry +3
ARG | 10/23-10/25 Kerry +2
LA Times | 10/22-10/26 Kerry +6
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/22-24 Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26 Bush +4
Scripps | 10/17-10/21 Kerry +4
Gallup | 10/17-10/20 Kerry +1
FOX News | 10/17-10/18 Bush +5
SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18 Kerry +2
Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 Bush +1
ABC News | 10/14-10/17 Kerry +3

Looks like the polls this time of year had Kerry up by an average of a little less than 1%. Then came Ohio’s break toward the GOP, that usually starts showing when October changes to November.

I’m willing to put money down that most of those 2004 polls didn’t have D+7 or D+9 samples either.

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM”

Let’s see, you had some polls of Bush +2, Bush +4, Bush +5 and Bush +1. How many Ohio polls have had Romney up by more than 1 point?

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I will be here to accept my accolades on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

I have copy of a gladius for you to throw yourself on, instead, if your precious Obama loses.

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

2008 Ohio RCP Average 10/17-10/23: O+6 Including Obama leads of 12, 14, and 10.

2012 Ohio RCP Average 10/17-10/23: O+2.1 Includes no lead greater than 5.

2008 Ohio Actual Result: O +4.6

Actual result was 1.4 points less than the average polling indicated at this point of the RCP average for Ohio from 2008. 2008 had some whopper outliers all the way up to O+14. Largest O lead this year during the same period is +5.

I am definitely optimistic that Romney will be taking Ohio.

weaselyone on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Allapundit, it just floors me when smart people use RCP as the measure. It is an average, and if any of the sample is skewed, then the average is skewed.

My education on the path to professional engineer was littered with admonishments about “crap in, crap out.” Given the provable tilt of most pollsters, if RCP shows a tie next week, it will be a Romney landslide…

bains on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

That’s really dumb. Never pull you gun out unless you intend to use it.

rndmusrnm on October 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Who said she didn’t intend to use it?

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

EXACTLY!

ToddPA on October 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Read tea leaves?

What the hell is this–the Middles Ages?

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

“You ARE being disrepectful of those who live in Ohio and have patiently tried to point out all of these positives by using the term cheerleaders.

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM”

Rasmussen used a Rep +1 sample and still couldn’t find Romney ahead.

He’s losing Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I agree completely. I was just pointing out that some of the posters here are going overboard in their optimism. I am going to do every thing I can to help assure a Romney win on 11/6.

We can’t afford another 4 years of Obama

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Hey Pokey,
I do not believe we have seen a poll yet that factors in any of the last debate.

Until then, go poke yourself.

Kerry was a sure thing until they started counting ballots in Florida, Hoss. Just ask him.

Tenwheeler on October 24, 2012 at 6:08 PM

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Were you directing all that at me? I’ve posted very positive info about Ohio and believe Mitt will win it by 2-4 points.

TarheelBen on October 24, 2012 at 6:09 PM

I was wrong. I thought Gallup would move in one big swoop, but it took a few more days, moved gradually, and the Obama surge isn’t done yet. Since he’s beaten Romney in 3 straight days of sampling, he will go ahead and stay ahead until at least the end of next week and probably until election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Obama surge? LOL. There is NO Obama surge. Obama is not going to get Indies back. He would need them for a “surge.” He’s not going to get men back. He would need to decrease the lead R has with them substantially for a “surge.” He’s not going to cut measurably into the 53-60+% support of the white vote that Romney is getting. He would need to take about 5-7% of the white vote away from R to have a “surge.”

Romney is “bleeding” support? He’s down 2. That’s “bleeding”?

Romney has been leading or tied in every poll with a sane sample for a long time.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Seriously, I want to comment those of you that can read the tea leaves and see that Ohio isn’t going to break for Romney. Overly good samples (rasmussen) or overly bad samples (cnn), the poll are almost always bad news for Mitt.

I’m glad to see some reality creeping in as we get closer to election day.

And I hope the realists here will understand that they’ve been deceived and lied to by the partisans who kept saying “everything is OK” and “romney will win ohio” when even they knew the truth.

You’ll get hacks like Hugh Hewitt on election day spouting nonsense about how great turnout is and how all the turnout goals are being met, as he did in 08, only to realize when Ohio is lost, that you were being fed a big steaming pile of crap.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:03 PM

So how is Rasmussen bad news for Mitt? And how is D+9 to get Obama a 5% lead anything but bad news for Obama when he was 10 and 15 points ahead with similar D+++ samples? Where are the polls showing Obama at and holding 50%? How is that anything but a historically aligning confirmation of how bad things are for Obama?

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Allapundit, it just floors me when smart people use RCP as the measure. It is an average, and if any of the sample is skewed, then the average is skewed.

My education on the path to professional engineer was littered with admonishments about “crap in, crap out.” Given the provable tilt of most pollsters, if RCP shows a tie next week, it will be a Romney landslide…

bains on October 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Exactly. See RCP Ohio Avg and Polling from 10/17-10/23 2008.

weaselyone on October 24, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Rasmussen used a Rep +1 sample and still couldn’t find Romney ahead.

He’s losing Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

D +3

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 6:10 PM

“I’m glad to see some reality creeping in as we get closer to election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:03 PM

What you really mean is you are happy to see some moby Eeyores who are buying your swill.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 6:05 PM”

It’s just people looking at the overwhelming evidence that Ohio looks to be lost for Romney.

When you have Rasmussen skew his sample Rep +1 and even that doesn’t work, you know there’s trouble.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 6:10 PM

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