New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 48

posted at 4:41 pm on October 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

New from Rasmussen, it’s the second poll in as many days showing Romney up two points in NH. Of the last eight polls taken in the state, he leads in four, is tied in two more, trails by a single point in another, and the last is an outlier. (Rasmussen’s last poll of NH, taken eight days ago, had Obama up by a point.) Why should you care about that? Simple: If Ohio doesn’t pan out for Mitt, his lone remaining path to the presidency may well be hitting an exacta with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If he wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, all of which are big but necessary ifs, that’ll put him at 257 in RCP’s electoral vote model. He can then get to 270 either with Ohio (18) or with NH + WI (14). I’m thinking those two states are a bit likelier to turn red than, say, Iowa or Nevada, not only because of the current RCP poll averages but because of the GOP ticket’s regional ties to them. (Romney not only governed the state next door, he has a vacation home in New Hampshire.) Besides, Iowa and Nevada each have only six EVs, so the most they can do for him without winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Ohio is clinch a dreaded 269-269 tie. But then, the odds of Mitt winning IA and NV (or PA or MI) while losing the other three seem astronomical. So Ohio remains Plan A, but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are Plan B. He’s on track, narrowly, in the latter state, but there hasn’t been a new poll of Wisconsin since Sunday. Maybe tomorrow? Until then, this intriguing tidbit will have to do:

Priorities USA is, of course, Obama’s Super PAC. Team O is talking verrrry tough to Mark Halperin (“I was struck by the expression of near certainty that their candidate would be re-elected”), but Josh Kraushaar makes a nice point about the battleground states. One thing they have in common is that they’re not in O’s demographic sweet spot:

The one hole in that argument is their own acknowledgment of where they’re running strongest — the five-state firewall of OH, IA, NH, NV and WI. With the notable exception of NV, these are heavily-white states and skew older. These aren’t the states where their base coalition; it’s where they’re running competitively enough with white voters (particularly working-class women). And implicity, they acknowledge they’re not ahead (they’re tied, presumably) in the states with the highest youth/minority vote combo: VA, NC and CO.

So if the GOTV operation is firing on all cylinders in a state like VA but the race is even, one would imagine he’s struggling with white voters. And in order to win those firewall states, he has to overperform his natl average with those same white voters.

Via John McCormack of the Standard, the early voting totals among O’s base in Virginia are apparently lagging:

Per RCP’s EV projections, if Obama holds on in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Nevada, he’s at 249 and needs to find 21 votes between Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Virginia has the second-most EVs in that list behind Ohio, so if he loses them both, he’ll have to win all three of the others to clinch. Not impossible, but if the bigger battleground states are tilting away from him, it’d be some trick if he figured out a way to reverse that momentum in the smaller ones and pile up enough of them to eke over the finish line.

Update: Just as I’m writing this, Time is out with a new poll of Ohio showing Obama up by five. However:


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Here’s RCP and I’ve broken down the sample/over-sample:

Ohio polls:

RCP Average……10/17-23…………….47.7…..46.0…..O +1.7

Rasmussen……..10/23…….750 LV 4.0……48…..48…..Tie

Sample: 38/35/28 D +3
2008: O +4
Rasmussen: Tie, same D +3, UNDER-SAMPLED (based on 2008 turnout, but no one expects such to be replicated, nevertheless…) D -1
Add +1 to mimic very, very unlikely 2008 turnout and O is +1

SurveyUSA……..10/20-22….609 LV 4.1……47…..44…..O +3

Sample: 39/32/25 D +7
SurveyUSA: O +3, sample D +7: OVER-SAMPLED +3
Take away the over-sample and O is -1

Suffolk……….10/18-21….600 LV 4.0……47…..47…..Tie

Sample: 39/35/27 D +4
Tie is realistic based only on 2008 turnout

PPP…………..10/18-20….532 LV 4.3……49…..48…..O +1

Sample: 42/34/23 D +8
PPP: O +1, sample D +8, OVER-SAMPLED +4
Take away the over-sample and Obama is -3

CBS/Quin………10/17-20…1548 LV 3.0……50…..45…..O +5

Sample: 35/26/34 D +9
CBS/Quin: O +5, sample D +9, OVER-SAMPLED +5
Take away the over-sample and Obama is tied.

Gravis………..10/18-19…1943 LV 2.2……47…..47…..Tie

Sample: 41/32/27 D +9
Gravis: Tie, sample D +9, OVER-SAMPLED +5
Take away the over-sample and Obama is -5.

FOX News………10/17-18…1131 LV 3.0……46…..43…..O +3

Sample: 42/34/20 D +8
FOX: O +3, sample D +8, OVER-SAMPLED +4
Take away the over-sample and Obama is -1

Of course, RuPoll will tell us that Obama is going to get higher turnout this year even though he has a record and, somehow, Romney is going to have lower turnout than McLame…and that’s AFTER THE MASSIVE 2010 BY-ELECTIONS.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

El_Terrible, maybe if you lose the sarc tag folks will believe you a troll.

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Why are you doing this? Sarcasm?…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Screw Ohio. The union leeches, Obamapho! welfare queens aren’t going to give up the taxpayer bloodsucking.. Pull out of Ohio and throw everything into Wisconsin where we have a proven GOTV that is recently battle tested. Ohio is going to stab us in the back and there’s no point in continuing to chase after it. Wisconsin + NH and this thing is over.

1984 in real life on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I think they have enough money in their coffers to ramp up the effort both in ohio and wi…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Wheeee!

Gumbo, I think you’re on to something! Imma go troll RedState and see how long I last.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Sorry to sound so eeyorish, but I feel OH is slipping away, and I don’t know why. Anyone on the ground in OH know anything we don’t??

I think CO, VA, FL, are now seemingly in the bag, OH would clinch it. The alternate path of WI+NH seems the most likely.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

It’s weird here this election year. I don’t know if people are playing their cards close or what. My neighborhood has no yard signs this year. I don’t think that’s ever happened.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

I don’t understand what the Democrats hope to achieve with the “Murdock controversy”…that all babies born to rape victims aren’t human beings or that they are somehow less human until born?

Neither route really plays to their advantage – particularly when you try to play yourself off as the party of the less fortunate.

newtopia on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Gumbo, I think you’re on to something! Imma go troll RedState and see how long I last.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Well do you have gumby’s SUPER AWESOME INSIDER INFO SKILLS?!!!!

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Nice moby troll attempt. It would have been more convincing without the “(he is)” tacked on at the end.

C- overall.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

So Zero up 5 in Ohio in a D+9 poll. How much does that mean Romney is actually up by?

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

It depends. I don’t know how much that poll undersamples(if at all) indies. So theoretically Romney could be up by just a couple or as much as 6 or 7 points. Either way, he’s up if you use a realistic sample.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I don’t think anyone is guaranteeing that Nevada will go to Romney. But it doesn’t hurt to try.

aunursa on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I am just saying to NOT put too many eggs in NV’s basket. Romney’s Clint Eastwood ad is NOT running in WI, but it’s running in NV. He should be making a stronger push in WI, and drop NV down the list.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

I can just hear the lefty pollsters chanting.

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Any state where Obama is polling below 50%, he will lose.

That includes states like MI, WI, PA and NV. States like CO and OH won’t really be close.

Romney should easily surpass 300+ electoral votes.

Norwegian on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

agree mostly. on the 48s and 49s, for my internal map i am allocating the undecideds right now 80% romney. there are a couple (like NV) i think we may lose by a whisker. but of course other days i see PA going romney 50.5/49.5, and if thats the case, and that happens, its easy 300, and NV too. the ones to watch early i think are of course NH, VA, FL..but also the margins in PA. to get a sense of OH/WI/MI/IA

t8stlikchkn on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Why are you doing this? Sarcasm?…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

It’s my turn to be the Gumbo today.

And since I cannot get you all to stop responding to him, I figger, what the phuck? If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Everybody that is sniffing the “Ohio is lost” glue, get a grip.

I live in Ohio. Romney is winning Ohio. Period.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I’ll give you credit for coming up with your Romney Plan B independently. I’ll also applaud you for reaching the same conclusion that I did in the thread about the possible 30 minute infomercial. I think that Mitt should go hard in WI. A win there means that any of half a dozen winnable toss up states would put him over the 270 mark. NH appears to be the easiest pick up for him among those.

MJBrutus on October 24, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Everybody that is sniffing the “Ohio is lost” glue, get a grip.

I live in Ohio. Romney is winning Ohio. Period.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

So…no Plan B? Are you sure? :)

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

I don’t know where you live in Florida but in SWFL there are Romney signs everywhere. Literally for every 8-10 Romney yard signs I will see 1 Obama sign. My buddies and I just finished door knocking for the Romney campaign this afternoon. The office had 5,000 Romney signs and there are only 4 left. Florida is not going for Obama. No way!

RonnyTucker on October 24, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

Must. Manufacture. Momentum. For. Zero.

I can just hear the lefty pollsters chanting.

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

is this a repost? we heard that chant in February, and march, and april and may, and june…..and…

t8stlikchkn on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

ermahgerd!!!

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

If he wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, all of which are big but necessary ifs, that’ll put him at 257 in RCP’s electoral vote model. He can then get to 270 either with Ohio (18) or with NH + WI (14). I’m thinking those two states are a bit likelier to turn red than, say, Iowa or Nevada, not only because of the current RCP poll averages but because of the GOP ticket’s regional ties to them.

What about the Mormon vote in Nevada, and the fact that Obama keeps dissing Las Vegas, whose population dominates the state?

If Romney loses both OH and WI, he can still win by winning CO, NV, IA, and NH. Still, AllahPundit is right that the easiest path to victory without Ohio runs through Wisconsin, with 10 EVs, the VP candidate and RNC chair from the state, and using the Scott Walker GOTV machine.

Steve Z on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Well do you have gumby’s SUPER AWESOME INSIDER INFO SKILLS?!!!!

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I’ll make some sh!t up. If you call me a liar, or an outliar, I’ll play the race card.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Harry Reid here all you wingnuts!

There are no opponents to Obama in America except a bunch of vastly outnumbered racists. Obama can not lose the election! Never! No, fellow Democrats I am not scared of losing and neither should you be! Search for the truth. I tell you things and I always ask you to verify what I say. I told you yesterday that there are no dissatisfied people in America. You can go and visit any state at all. No dissatisfied person there. No one at all. There are only supporters of Barack Obama except for a few crazy constitution clingers. Everything is okay.

By Obama, I think Obama will win in a 57 state landslide. Any talk of his defeat is merely an insane prattle. The fact is that as soon as Obama’s opponents reach the voting booths, we will besiege them and slaughter them. Wherever Obama’s opponents go in the New Socialist Worker’s Paradise of Amerika they will find themselves encircled by billions of Obama supporters. The Tea Partiers will be burnt. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will be buried. We are going to tackle them. We are going to hit them with shoes! Obama’s opponents will soon be committing suicide by the thousands as they realize that Obama can not lose.

RasThavas on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

The one hole in that argument is their own acknowledgment of where they’re running strongest — the five-state firewall of OH, IA, NH, NV and WI. With the notable exception of NV, these are heavily-white states and skew older.

Know what other state has a high population of seniors? Pennsylvania.

Gingotts on October 24, 2012 at 5:11 PM

It’s weird here this election year. I don’t know if people are playing their cards close or what. My neighborhood has no yard signs this year. I don’t think that’s ever happened.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Was the bailout that popular in OH?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:11 PM

So…no Plan B? Are you sure? :)

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Yes, I’m sure.

Obama’s base is Cleveland and Toledo. Romney will do better than expected in the eastern coal region. Western Ohio is deeply red. Columbus is the key swing area. And I’m hearing good things there.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:12 PM

New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 48
==================================

Another Hull Scrape,for the Hopey Titanic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on October 24, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Some folks are so wound up they are getting taken in by pranksters they ought to know.

The next two weeks is gonna’ be fun.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:12 PM

I’m here in Ohio (Dayton) and the GOP ground game is lightyears ahead of where it was for McCain. There are many, many fewer obama signs this time around. Also, if you look at early voting, the Dems are under performing in their strongholds as far as absentee requests vs the GOP which is overperforming in its strongholds. Remember, Obama beat McCain by 20% in absentee voting in 08. McCain had a decent election day advantage (R’s and conservatives come out in much larger numbers on election day)but not enough to overcome obama’s absentee advantage. If obama isn’t up in absentees by at least 13% going into election day he will lose. Right now it looks like he probably has around a 5-7% advantage. Another thing obama only got 51.5% of the Ohio vote in 08.

Ta111 on October 24, 2012 at 5:12 PM

It must be Mitt’s secret weapon in New Hampshire…..Mark Steyn!

jmangini on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Still waiting for Steyn to write about the silly wind farm being built just south of where he lives in Grafton County. Talk about a Springfield Monorail…

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Why are you doing this? Sarcasm?…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

It’s my turn to be the Gumbo today.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Which is a good thing, since gumbey’s presence here was only sporadic today…I had started to experience a feeling of loss until I saw your posts impersonating him :) …now it’s all good again :)…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Shill. Tool of the left.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

CNN/Time Ohio poll has Obama up 5, 49-44. Sample is D+9.

This must from the oldest polling company around…Aesops Fables, Inc.

BobMbx on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Is that the one where he was informed of a terror attack on one of our Consulates that raged for over six hours…

… and he never gave the Command to send in back up, but went to sleep then went out campaigning, then lied about it?

Or is this about ‘Fast and Furious’, +$6 Trillion to the National Debt in under 4 years, illegal foreign campaign donations, the Keystone pipeline, Executive Orders, EPA regulations, the devaluation of our currency, soaring gas and food prices, high unemployment, granting amnesty to illegal aliens, suing the States for voter ID and immigration laws, bowing to Saudi Kings, destroying our nuke capability, or not having an agenda for a second term except more of the same…?

… If you want answers, you need to be specific.

Oh, ‘the Mourdock controversy’

… Who’s he?

Seven Percent Solution on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

.

You can rest assured. Obama has Florida in the bag. And the Jewish vote.
/

FlaMurph on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Romney is going to win Ohio by 2 to 3 points…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

There is a lot of talk like this here and zero evidence.

There have been a lot of polls of Ohio and not a single one has Romney in the lead. It takes a strong dose of denial to swallow all of that and believe that Romney is really ahead there.

Turn this around. If Romney were up or tied in every single poll, and all the Dems said it doesn’t matter because Obama is going to win the state anyway, you would think they are delusional, would you not?

You’d want to know, at least, what evidence they had for this.

Back to reality, no one who is “sure” that Romney is going to win in Ohio has any evidence to back that up. Just hope.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Sorry to sound so eeyorish, but I feel OH is slipping away, and I don’t know why. Anyone on the ground in OH know anything we don’t??

I think CO, VA, FL, are now seemingly in the bag, OH would clinch it. The alternate path of WI+NH seems the most likely.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Your feeling are wrong… Romney is going to win Ohio by 2 to 3 points… Just in the absentee ballots request alone the democrats are down in 2012 by 130,000 ballots compared to 2008. This means, with that same ratio of decline in the overall vote (absentee+ in person vote), Obama would lose around 350,000 votes compared to 2008… Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 votes… Obama is going to lose Ohio…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

NumbersMuncher
@NumbersMuncher CNN/Time Ohio poll has Obama up 5, 49-44. Sample is D+9. It was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010… wow.

so that means romney up by 4?

Dr. Demento on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Seven Percent Solution on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

+7^7%

tom daschle concerned on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

It’s my turn to be the Gumbo today.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

D-

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Everybody that is sniffing the “Ohio is lost” glue, get a grip.

I live in Ohio. Romney is winning Ohio. Period.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Where are you in OIHO Bitter? I’m in Columbus but the polls are making me nervous even though I sense something strange about this year.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Womyn card beats race card. If you disagree, Gloria Allred is coming for you.

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I say about two.

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Sorry to sound so eeyorish, but I feel OH is slipping away, and I don’t know why. Anyone on the ground in OH know anything we don’t??

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Compare the polls done by media outlets vs polls done by actual pollsters:

Rasmussen: Tie
SurveyUSA: O+3 with a built in D+7% sample who voted 51-40% in 2008 (the actual margin was 4.5%)
Suffolk: Tie
PPP: O+1
Gravis: Tie

Media outlets:
Time: O+5 – D+9% sample again
CBS/Quinnipiac: O+5 – D+9% sample with only 26% Republicans total, insane

So, the pros see a very tight race that is staying tight. The MSM sees a different race.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Still waiting for Steyn to write about the silly wind farm being built just south of where he lives in Grafton County. Talk about a Springfield Monorail…

Del Dolemonte on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

I like the Simpsons reference. :)

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM

“It’s weird here this election year. I don’t know if people are playing their cards close or what. My neighborhood has no yard signs this year. I don’t think that’s ever happened.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Was the bailout that popular in OH?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:11 PM”

Yes, it bought him a reservoir of good will from a part of the state, and in a close race, it will make a difference.

Ohio has been stuck on either a tie or Obama lead for a long time.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Of course, RuPoll will tell us that Obama is going to get higher turnout this year even though he has a record and, somehow, Romney is going to have lower turnout than McLame…and that’s AFTER THE MASSIVE 2010 BY-ELECTIONS.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Yep – this is what I’ve been saying. Even at a tie with this split between his performance and John McCains lousy performance (4%) Obama is behind by 2 -2.5%. Set the thing at a realitic d+3 for Ohio? It gets worse for Obama. And these states don’t have some firewall around them. If it is this bad for O in Ohio, it’s similar in most, not all swing states.

Wisconsin will be Obama by 1 or 2. Same for Nevada.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Poll after poll has Romney crushing Obama with indys, some even by 20 points. The only poll that have O up like this are one with heavy D samples.

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Was the bailout that popular in OH?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Hardly.

In fact, Georgia used bailout money to lure NCR out of Dayton back before Kasich became Governor.

Coupled with the fact that GM/Delphi is 100% dead in Dayton (which is one of the few swing areas in western Ohio), Obama isn’t getting it done here.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM

There is a lot of talk like this here and zero evidence.

There have been a lot of polls of Ohio and not a single one has Romney in the lead. It takes a strong dose of denial to swallow all of that and believe that Romney is really ahead there.

Turn this around. If Romney were up or tied in every single poll, and all the Dems said it doesn’t matter because Obama is going to win the state anyway, you would think they are delusional, would you not?

You’d want to know, at least, what evidence they had for this.

Back to reality, no one who is “sure” that Romney is going to win in Ohio has any evidence to back that up. Just hope.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

All these polls are way oversampling democrats… if you want to believe polls that are oversampling democrats in Ohio by 7 points so be it… Also even in these polls the avrage Obama lead is 2 points over Romney and Obama is at 48% on average… Obama is not going to win Ohio with these numbers…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Where are you in OIHO Bitter? I’m in Columbus but the polls are making me nervous even though I sense something strange about this year.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Dayton.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 24,

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He’s here! I can stand down.

For now…

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Of course, RuPoll will tell us that Obama is going to get higher turnout this year even though he has a record and, somehow, Romney is going to have lower turnout than McLame…and that’s AFTER THE MASSIVE 2010 BY-ELECTIONS.

Resist We Much on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Nice analysis. Do you know how the Independent vote split in each of those polls?

Steve Z on October 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Steve Z on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

And don’t forget home town boy Paul Ryan!

MJBrutus on October 24, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Here allow me to assist.

TROLL!!!

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 5:17 PM

so that means romney up by 4?

Dr. Demento on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

If you assume that every Dem point loss is a Repub gain, then yes. I’d assume that a proper weighting would move some of those Dem votes to Independent votes and put the result at tied. But it’s all guesswork really.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Any state that Obama isn’t polling over 48%, he is behind. One man’s opinion.

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:17 PM

“Who are these idiot trolls? Gallup shows no Romney collapse at all.

Priscilla on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM”

Is that sarcasm?

Because Gallup is showing Romney in total collapse/freefall now, which I predicted.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Was the bailout that popular in OH?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Probably in Northern OIHO but Honda is big here as well and I can’t imagine their employees being happy with the bailout of a competitor.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

OH will fall Romneys way. It won’t matter Romney will win without it.

Bmore on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Back to reality, no one who is “sure” that Romney is going to win in Ohio has any evidence to back that up. Just hope.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Polls in 2010, Chick-fil-A, total meltdown of the left and 0bama grasping at straws.

Those TEA leaves ain’t hard to read.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Momentum Mittmentum will be on beating obama’s side down from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

There… fixed it :)

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Some babies just need killin’, huh? Damn! Why didn’t Mourdock just say that?!

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

SurveyUSA: O+3 with a built in D+7% sample who voted 51-40% in 2008 (the actual margin was 4.5%)

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:14 PM

In case that isn’t clear, their polling sample voted for Obama by 51-40% in 2008. The actual margin between Obama and McCain was 4.5%, not 11%. So the poll had a very significant oversampling of Obama voters from 2008.

strictnein on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

So sick of these D + eleventy polls.

Gallup has done the most exhaustive polling on party ID and they have a 34/34/32 split. So I’m not buying any Obama lead in any D+5 poll. I believe Romney is leading in all of the battleground states except perhaps Nevada, and he is still pushing there so the internal polls must be showing him still within the MOE.

Besides, it doesn’t matter because Romney’s winning Pennsylvania. :-P

rockmom on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I was worried earlier, but reading through the suffolk and Rasmussen polls, im not worried any longer. We are winning Ohio. Mark it down. We are taking Wisconsin. Iowa. New Hampshire too.

We’ve already won Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.

It’ll be more of a nail biter in Nevada, but I’m hopeful we can pull that one out too. Before this election is over, Pennsylvania might be in reach. Maybe even Washington State.

This is a President with a low favorability rating (notwithstanding the Justice Department bullying of Gallup) in a lousy economy and with a successful terror attack last month on his record. He’s a failure, and he will lose.

MTF on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Yes Romney should take all the resources out of NV and put them in WI. When the unions in Clark County want to play hardball and really GOTV, they cannot be beaten. Add in the complete mess the GOP is out there and the state is lost.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Sheesh. At least wait until next week before you panic about OH.

newtopia on October 24, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I’m here in Ohio (Dayton) and the GOP ground game is lightyears ahead of where it was for McCain. There are many, many fewer obama signs this time around. Also, if you look at early voting, the Dems are under performing in their strongholds as far as absentee requests vs the GOP which is overperforming in its strongholds. Remember, Obama beat McCain by 20% in absentee voting in 08. McCain had a decent election day advantage (R’s and conservatives come out in much larger numbers on election day)but not enough to overcome obama’s absentee advantage. If obama isn’t up in absentees by at least 13% going into election day he will lose. Right now it looks like he probably has around a 5-7% advantage. Another thing obama only got 51.5% of the Ohio vote in 08.

Ta111 on October 24, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Indeed. The only vote Obama will perform well in Dayton is the black vote. And the cleaning crew at my wife’s office are conservative blacks that live in Trotwood and they say there are a number of Romney signs in Trotwood. Which is amazing, for thsoe of you who don’t know Dayton.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Back to reality, no one who is “sure” that Romney is going to win in Ohio has any evidence to back that up. Just hope.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Oh, the irony.

SailorMark on October 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Is that sarcasm?

Because Gallup is showing Romney in total collapse/freefall now, which I predicted.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Yup. He fell all the way to 50% — a number Zero has never seen. Freefall, baby!

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Is that sarcasm?

Because Gallup is showing Romney in total collapse/freefall now, which I predicted.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Darnit Gumby, I am the leader of the largest organization of bitter clinger midwesterners. We were pretty psyched up to go vote on Nov 6., but now I think I’ll command my masses to stay home since campaigning against OFA is futile.

May we share the same borg-mind someday in peace and prosperity gumbyandpokey.

tom daschle concerned on October 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

It’s weird here this election year. I don’t know if people are playing their cards close or what. My neighborhood has no yard signs this year. I don’t think that’s ever happened.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 P

My state is definitely red, and there are very few signs other than local politics. I’ve picked up a few extra Romney signs whenever I’m at the Repub headquarters, and I’ve asked my very conservative neighbors if they want one and from both sides they’ve said, “No thanks, they’re going Romney, but they don’t want their house egged or their cars vandalized”. Isn’t that pathetic? Everyone knows what scummy poor sports the libs are.

BettyRuth on October 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Aw, poor gumbyandpokey got his ass ban-hammered at Ace’s and is back here to celebrate a D+9 poll in Ohio.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

Master Shake on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

The only way Obama wins this election is if he steals it…and he’ll try and it won’t matter

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

.
You’re naive if you trust the accuracy of any poll. There is no verification of any of this. Just reputations. The only indications they offer is movement or a shift over time.

What you do know is that the liberal oriented press will NOT tell you the truth. You can add 2-3pts on any of those polls for Romney. Any of them. If you still want to believe the numbers in them, of course.

And then of course, you also have The Bradley Effect.

FlaMurph on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Any state that Obama isn’t polling over 48%, he is behind. One man’s opinion.

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Another good point. Incumbents that win consistently poll above 50%.

There isn’t any way to look at the polls and be happy if you are for Obama, unless you are so bizarrely unbalanced that you think his split performance and turnout will be better than 2008.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

It is so odd to think about Wisconsin in play. Don’t go by the signs, folks. In case you missed my boring story before, in the Jax area of Florida in 2008 there were no Obama signs until election day. I woke up in the Twilight Zone.

Cindy Munford on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Sheesh. At least wait until next week before you panic about OH.

newtopia on October 24, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I think that you’re taking some of the remarks here the wrong way. Outlining a solid Plan B is not giving up on OH. It is merely suggesting that it is still possible to lose it and make up the difference elsewhere. I would expect Mitt’s campaign to know this full well and to be planning on such contingencies.

MJBrutus on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Romney slips from 51 to 50 in Gallup…oh, the free fall!

newtopia on October 24, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Was the bailout that popular in OH?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:11 PM

No, but there are the racist black votes in Cleveland and Cincinnati, Obamaphone and these idiots

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=A2EoZq2rXXI

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Most folks aren’t putting out Romney signs to avoid vandalism….They will vote for Romney/Ryan

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Probably in Northern OIHO but Honda is big here as well and I can’t imagine their employees being happy with the bailout of a competitor.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:18 PM

And Honda isn’t a UAW shop either. The bailouts did nothing for those folks but rob from their taxes. Same as the rest of us.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Everybody that is sniffing the “Ohio is lost” glue, get a grip.

I live in Ohio. Romney is winning Ohio. Period.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:08 PM

.
Plan B for those sniffing the “Ohio is lost” glue …

… unplug your computers, tablets, TV’s and radios; hide in your house and don’t come out until the morning of November 6th …

… because then you will be AMAZED at the number of people out voting when you go to vote …

… and you might THEN get a clue that the SCOAMF and the LSM are enacting the LARGEST DISINFORMATION campaign in the history of the world in a futile attempt to save the SCOAMF, the liberals, the Democratic Party and the LSM

… and your intervening absence will also be a nice dividend to those of us who live in Ohio and are not afraid of the SCOAMF, the LSM or our own shadows.

Thanks and see you back here on November 6th.

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

May we share the same borg-mind someday in peace and prosperity gumbyandpokey.

tom daschle concerned on October 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

And in certainty of the purity of our precious bodily fluids.

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He’s here! I can stand down.

For now…

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Good. Help us yell at Nessuno.

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Yes Romney should take all the resources out of NV and put them in WI. When the unions in Clark County want to play hardball and really GOTV, they cannot be beaten. Add in the complete mess the GOP is out there and the state is lost.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

From the lass who predicted that Walker would get thumped.

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Yes Romney should take all the resources out of NV and put them in WI. When the unions in Clark County want to play hardball and really GOTV, they cannot be beaten. Add in the complete mess the GOP is out there and the state is lost.

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Good thing Walker never listened to you.

Chuck Schick on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

No, but there are the racist black votes in Cleveland and Cincinnati, Obamaphone and these idiots

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=A2EoZq2rXXI

bayview on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Rub their ignorant noses in their own excrement then laugh as they watch their saviour eat the whole dog.

tom daschle concerned on October 24, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Where is akunika or whatever the hell her name is?

She’s fun.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:24 PM

I’m in Texas. We’re just Cruzing….

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Plan B for those sniffing the “Ohio is lost” glue …

… unplug your computers, tablets, TV’s and radios; hide in your house and don’t come out until the morning of November 6th …

… because then you will be AMAZED at the number of people out voting when you go to vote …

… and you might THEN get a clue that the SCOAMF and the LSM are enacting the LARGEST DISINFORMATION campaign in the history of the world in a futile attempt to save the SCOAMF, the liberals, the Democratic Party and the LSM …

… and your intervening absence will also be a nice dividend to those of us who live in Ohio and are not afraid of the SCOAMF, the LSM or our own shadows.

Thanks and see you back here on November 6th.

PolAgnostic on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Amen!!

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Good. Help us yell at Nessuno.

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Ummm, no.

He ain’t obnoxious.

Yet…

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Why are you doing this? Sarcasm?…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Trying to prove Gumby is really a conservative and just pulling our chain.

IowaWoman on October 24, 2012 at 5:26 PM

My state is definitely red, and there are very few signs other than local politics. I’ve picked up a few extra Romney signs whenever I’m at the Repub headquarters, and I’ve asked my very conservative neighbors if they want one and from both sides they’ve said, “No thanks, they’re going Romney, but they don’t want their house egged or their cars vandalized”. Isn’t that pathetic? Everyone knows what scummy poor sports the libs are.

BettyRuth on October 24, 2012 at 5:21 PM

I completely understand. I haven’t put my RR sticker on my new car for fear of vandalism by a lefty loon. (I work for OSU.)

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I’ll give you credit for coming up with your Romney Plan B independently. I’ll also applaud you for reaching the same conclusion that I did in the thread about the possible 30 minute infomercial. I think that Mitt should go hard in WI. A win there means that any of half a dozen winnable toss up states would put him over the 270 mark. NH appears to be the easiest pick up for him among those.

MJBrutus on October 24, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I agree, and since he has still plenty of money left he can go strong in WI while staying in OH too and doing what he needs to be done there….besides, he can sure pitch in with some of his own money, worst come to worst, or am sure that some of the dang 1% that he has been soooo villanized for representing will be happy to oblige and pitch in with some more…so, money shouldn’t be an iissue and he should try every path to victory…other than that, just stay strong and confident, project the image of a winner and make sure the organizations (GOP and others) on the ground stay on top of it and get the vote out…

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Two more years before I can vote for Franken again, the dumbest man ever to hold a senate seat.

Yay Minnesota!

Bishop on October 24, 2012 at 5:27 PM

I’m in Texas. We’re just Cruzing….

KCB on October 24, 2012 at 5:25 PM

gumby will get right on that and tell us why…um…ah…eh…the other guy, yeah that’s him, is really leading.

cozmo on October 24, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Imma take a nap.

Troll ya later, ‘cons.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:29 PM

There is a lot of talk like this here and zero evidence.

There have been a lot of polls of Ohio and not a single one has Romney in the lead. It takes a strong dose of denial to swallow all of that and believe that Romney is really ahead there.

Turn this around. If Romney were up or tied in every single poll, and all the Dems said it doesn’t matter because Obama is going to win the state anyway, you would think they are delusional, would you not?

You’d want to know, at least, what evidence they had for this.

Back to reality, no one who is “sure” that Romney is going to win in Ohio has any evidence to back that up. Just hope.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

And you want to buy into a D+9 poll? Obama couldn’t cheat his way to a D+9 on Election Day (or with early voting).

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:29 PM

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