New Hampshire: Romney 50, Obama 48

posted at 4:41 pm on October 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

New from Rasmussen, it’s the second poll in as many days showing Romney up two points in NH. Of the last eight polls taken in the state, he leads in four, is tied in two more, trails by a single point in another, and the last is an outlier. (Rasmussen’s last poll of NH, taken eight days ago, had Obama up by a point.) Why should you care about that? Simple: If Ohio doesn’t pan out for Mitt, his lone remaining path to the presidency may well be hitting an exacta with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If he wins Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, all of which are big but necessary ifs, that’ll put him at 257 in RCP’s electoral vote model. He can then get to 270 either with Ohio (18) or with NH + WI (14). I’m thinking those two states are a bit likelier to turn red than, say, Iowa or Nevada, not only because of the current RCP poll averages but because of the GOP ticket’s regional ties to them. (Romney not only governed the state next door, he has a vacation home in New Hampshire.) Besides, Iowa and Nevada each have only six EVs, so the most they can do for him without winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Ohio is clinch a dreaded 269-269 tie. But then, the odds of Mitt winning IA and NV (or PA or MI) while losing the other three seem astronomical. So Ohio remains Plan A, but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are Plan B. He’s on track, narrowly, in the latter state, but there hasn’t been a new poll of Wisconsin since Sunday. Maybe tomorrow? Until then, this intriguing tidbit will have to do:

Priorities USA is, of course, Obama’s Super PAC. Team O is talking verrrry tough to Mark Halperin (“I was struck by the expression of near certainty that their candidate would be re-elected”), but Josh Kraushaar makes a nice point about the battleground states. One thing they have in common is that they’re not in O’s demographic sweet spot:

The one hole in that argument is their own acknowledgment of where they’re running strongest — the five-state firewall of OH, IA, NH, NV and WI. With the notable exception of NV, these are heavily-white states and skew older. These aren’t the states where their base coalition; it’s where they’re running competitively enough with white voters (particularly working-class women). And implicity, they acknowledge they’re not ahead (they’re tied, presumably) in the states with the highest youth/minority vote combo: VA, NC and CO.

So if the GOTV operation is firing on all cylinders in a state like VA but the race is even, one would imagine he’s struggling with white voters. And in order to win those firewall states, he has to overperform his natl average with those same white voters.

Via John McCormack of the Standard, the early voting totals among O’s base in Virginia are apparently lagging:

Per RCP’s EV projections, if Obama holds on in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Nevada, he’s at 249 and needs to find 21 votes between Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Virginia has the second-most EVs in that list behind Ohio, so if he loses them both, he’ll have to win all three of the others to clinch. Not impossible, but if the bigger battleground states are tilting away from him, it’d be some trick if he figured out a way to reverse that momentum in the smaller ones and pile up enough of them to eke over the finish line.

Update: Just as I’m writing this, Time is out with a new poll of Ohio showing Obama up by five. However:


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How many rounds for the fetishistic poll troll will this make for him today?

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 4:43 PM

RACISM !!!

Long Live Big Bird !!!

FlatFoot on October 24, 2012 at 4:44 PM

I guess I’m puzzled why anyone thinks early votes indicate anything other than some people voted early.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 4:44 PM

R+5

GALLUP SHOWING ROMNEY COLLAPSE.

INTRADE RISING TO 89%

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Keep on rollin’, Mitt!

kingsjester on October 24, 2012 at 4:45 PM

OBAMA SOLIDIFYING OHIO LEAD. ROMNEY CANT WIN WITHOUT OHIO
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Virginia looks like it’s gone. And that O-I-H-O poll from CNN/Time ironically is far more uplifting than the Ras one this morning. Go figure.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Per Rasmussen: Nevada is Obama 50, Romney 48.

I’m returning to Reno this weekend — with hundreds of California volunteers — to flip that result. We’re going door-to-door, meeting with thousands of Republicans and independents, to ask them to help elect Romney and Ryan.

aunursa on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

WOMEN RUNNING AWAY FROM ROMNEY AND GOP, INDIANA TO LEAN OBAMA SOON
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Gumby in 5 4 3 2

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

This is going to be the longest 13 days of my life.

The Count on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Per Rasmussen: Nevada is Obama 50, Romney 48.

I’m returning to Reno this weekend — with hundreds of California volunteers — to flip that result. We’re going door-to-door, meeting with thousands of Republicans and independents, to ask them to help elect Romney and Ryan.

aunursa on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Nevada seems to be the forgotten state in the polls lately. That would be a nice pickup.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 4:48 PM

OBAMA SOLIDIFYING OHIO LEAD. ROMNEY CANT WIN WITHOUT OHIO
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Yep. He’s going to pull a historic, never been done before, D+9 in Ohio.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

TIME poll +9D ?
Hope they feel good about themselves.

Jabberwock on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Red NH!

How many states is Barky at 50%?

Nov 6th can’t come soon enough. In my neck of NH the night sky will be lit with fireworks by 10PM!

D-fusit on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

It must be Mitt’s secret weapon in New Hampshire…..Mark Steyn!

jmangini on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

How can we call the latest CNN/Time public relations piece a “poll?” Really? D+ freaking 9??? There. Is. No. Shame.

Sugar Land on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Who is this dolt? He’s either skipping school, unemployed or a professional shill for the left.

rplat on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

I haven’t heard Obama whine about being outspent lately, time to work that back into the rotation.

Cindy Munford on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

WOMEN RUNNING AWAY FROM ROMNEY AND GOP, INDIANA TO LEAN OBAMA SOON
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Men running away from Obama in greater numbers than women running away from Romney. Independents by 6 or 7% for Romney. More Dems flipping to Romney than Reps flipping to Obama.

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 4:51 PM

The closer we get to the election…

… the higher the Democrat sample (DE+35).

Seven Percent Solution on October 24, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Today, Big Bird picked up his bayonet to hook some binders of women. :)

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Because it’s not a controversy. He said something that was at worst badly phrased and the Dems twisted it and tried to make into a big deal. He already apologized publicly and called out anyone trying to take his words out of context. This is not Todd Akin where no one could figure out what the hell dude was trying to say.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Your troll breath smells like Obama’s nether regions.

Sugar Land on October 24, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I haven’t heard Obama whine about being outspent lately, time to work that back into the rotation.

Cindy Munford on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Plus the one, a big gone-nowhere, that the crowds at Romney/Ryan events are ‘too big’.

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Team O is talking verrrry tough to Mark Halperin (“I was struck by the expression of near certainty that their candidate would be re-elected”)

There is not a single realistic person in the Obama campaign… All of them are delusional… They believe their own lies…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Who is this dolt? He’s either skipping school, unemployed or a professional shill for the left.

rplat on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

I think he’s writing parody of G&P.

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Because it’s not a controversy. He said something that was at worst badly phrased and the Dems twisted it and tried to make into a big deal. He already apologized publicly and called out anyone trying to take his words out of context. This is not Todd Akin where no one could figure out what the hell dude was trying to say.

Doughboy on October 24, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Yeah. But it’s still politics and it’s still news. Doesn’t do any good to try to forget it’s happening.

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

I think some are missing the sarc tag’s on El_T’s posts.

D-fusit on October 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

It’s less of a controversy than it’s made out to be. He didn’t do an Akin and define “types” of rape, he just said that life begins at conception, even in the event of a rape.

iurockhead on October 24, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Now you outed yourself… I have always suspected that you are a troll but now you proved it…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 4:53 PM

El_Terrible is joking, people..

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:53 PM

It’s kinda of sickening how these polls are so intentionally off in OH regarding sample size. On the positive side, it’s within two weeks of the election so hopefully their reputations will be tarnished very soon.

jaygatz33 on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

This is going to be the longest 13 days of my life.

the longest 13 days of my life were waiting for my ex-wife to deliver my second child.

she made my life hell for 13 days

gerrym51 on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

So Zero up 5 in Ohio in a D+9 poll. How much does that mean Romney is actually up by?

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

OBAMA SOLIDIFYING OHIO LEAD. ROMNEY CANT WIN WITHOUT OHIO
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Is this an attempt at annihilating atomic gumbey by pre-emptively taking his cues away from him :) ..I guess he’d look very stupid now if he gets here and post this stuff above :)…oh, wait…:)

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Who is this dolt? He’s either skipping school, unemployed or a professional shill for the left.

rplat on October 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

You need to take your sarcasm meter to the shop, rplat. :)

Bouncing Beatnik on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

ROMNEY LOST FLORIDA THE MOMENT HE CHOSE RYAN.
SENIORS AND FLORIDIANS WONT VOTE FOR A GUY WHO’S GONNA TAKE AN AXE TO THE MIDDLE CLASS
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:54 PM

CNN/Time Ohio poll has Obama up 5, 49-44. Sample is D+9. It was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010… wow.

WTG CNN/Time! That’s right, ENCOURAGE us some more! If you had to go D+9 to get a paltry +5, then this election is over!

What morons!

Turtle317 on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I am in NV and I would advise AGAINST putting too much faith in NV. Remember how Dirty Harry managed to “win” despite seemingly being down in every poll to election day??

Remember NV doesn’t HAVE VOTER ID laws, and in 2008 this was the home base for ACORN. Also with the large influx of parasites fleeing CA, NV has been trending to the LEFT.

Californians flee their sinking liberal utopia and go to other states and turn them in to CA.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Yeah. But it’s still politics and it’s still news. Doesn’t do any good to try to forget it’s happening.

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Maybe, but it’s pretty tame compared to all else going on today. He actually made a good comment that many people agree with, and the most potentially affected citizens are treating it as a non-story. I think we should follow their lead.

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Isn’t it about time for one of those “last days of Hitler” videos, starring Obama/Axelrod wondering where all the troops, battles have gone??

right2bright on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

it’s not a controversy to us.

LOL

gerrym51 on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

This is about NH..

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Doom.

D+9 in Ohio is plausible if you believe that Romney was killed by early advertising from Obama (he was) and is damaged by his perceived position on the auto bailouts (he is).

Wisconsin or bust.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Because it’s a non-story. Now Moby along to Kos.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I think Romney’s gotta focus on WI, NH, and CO. He gets those, along with VA and FL, and he squeaks out an EV victory. NH seems to be trending his way, CO too, so the question is whether or not WI can come through for us one more time. Have Ryan campaign with Walker throughout the state for the last week…Romney can go everywhere else and do his own thing.

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

This is about NH..

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I was advising to forget any path that includes NV.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Forget it. Romney is toast. obama got a belated debate bounce today and this was the wrong time for Romney to have the momentum.

The pendulum is starting to swing back towards obama. A new poll shows obama with a 2 point advantage in OH. Up from even yesterday.

Better luck in ’16, maybe.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Sure thing, moby. Then why do 99% of the other polls have it tied or within 2?

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:58 PM

We’ll take Ohio… and Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Besides, Iowa and Nevada each have only six EVs, so the most they can do for him without winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Ohio is clinch a dreaded 269-269 tie.

Romney will get the ME-2 vote (and won’t lose NE-2 in a world where he wins IA), so if it really came down to IA+NV, it’d be 270-268.

Fabozz on October 24, 2012 at 4:58 PM

This is going to be the longest 13 days of my life.

The Count on October 24, 2012 at 4:47 PM

This!!! I can’t for the life of me figure out what is going on here in OIHO.

buckichick1 on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Share some of that weed, dude.

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

What controversy? That a pro life christian happens to believe what 2000+ years of Christianity believes?

If you want an abortion controversy let’s talk about Obama and infanticide or yesterday’s reveal that Michelle O in 2004 supported revoking the ban on partial birth abortion…

jaygatz33 on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Grrr. One of the risks of a rules-free comment board is everyone wants to be G&P!

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

What about PA?
PA is 20 electoral votes, more than Ohio & NH combined (if you subtract 3). Pull out all the stops in PA. Ads in the Pittsburg market would hit both PA & OH, right?
Just get a tiny slice of the lib leaning but independent thinkers in Phila & burbs, and Romney wins. Why can we get a decent fraction of this Phila demographic? Let’s say the demographic is like those associated with Penn & other universities in the area. Look at Letterman giving it to Maddow about O’s lies about the auto industry. Letterman is turning (?), and that means also that Penn students could turn!

anotherJoe on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I’m smellin a last ditch Wag the Dog scenario coming up by El Presidente’ Downgrade…

Steam Roll over him Team Romney!

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

We’ll take Ohio… and Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Better luck in ’16, maybe.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

You don’t mind if we keep fighting anyway this time around, do you?

Pffft!

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

TIME poll +9D ?
Hope they feel good about themselves.

Jabberwock on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Hey, it’s Time.

The same people that once made Hitler their Man of the Year.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Doom.

D+9 in Ohio is plausible if you believe that Romney was killed by early advertising from Obama (he was) and is damaged by his perceived position on the auto bailouts (he is).

Wisconsin or bust.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

D+9 isn’t plausible AT ALL. Did you forget that Obama 2008/rock star status/hope and change got D+5 in 2008? So what makes you think D+9 portends anything close to… say… REALITY???

Turtle317 on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I don’t think anyone is guaranteeing that Nevada will go to Romney. But it doesn’t hurt to try.

aunursa on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

anotherJoe on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Santorum says PA is in play

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Screw Ohio. The union leeches, Obamapho! welfare queens aren’t going to give up the taxpayer bloodsucking.. Pull out of Ohio and throw everything into Wisconsin where we have a proven GOTV that is recently battle tested. Ohio is going to stab us in the back and there’s no point in continuing to chase after it. Wisconsin + NH and this thing is over.

1984 in real life on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

and that means also that Penn students could turn!

anotherJoe on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Bwahahaha!

Pennsylvania? Are you serious? Romney will not win PA!

Perhaps I should call you AnotherJoeBiden! :)

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

LoL. ;)

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Why is HA ignoring the Mourdock controversy?

Mark1971 on October 24, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Theyre not. Its on another thread. Go find it:)

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Dude why you gotta ignore texas? I’m seeing TONS of Obama signs. I also heard that support for gun control in texas is at 104%!

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Any state where Obama is polling below 50%, he will lose.

That includes states like MI, WI, PA and NV. States like CO and OH won’t really be close.

Romney should easily surpass 300+ electoral votes.

Norwegian on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

AGREED COMRADE. OBAMA TROUNCED ROMNEY AT THE DEBATES. OBAMA GOT A BIG BUMP BY DEMONSTRATING HIS KNOWLEDGE OF HORSES AND BAYONETS.

MARCH ON TO VICTORY COMRADES!!!!
/

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

A reminder:
Win NC/FL/VA/OH/one more state and get to 270 or more.

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

You don’t mind if we keep fighting anyway this time around, do you?

Pffft!

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Knock yourself out.

Your funeral.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

good plan…then R will sweep them all. By midnite Nov 6 we will see it and be happy.

gracie on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Grrr. One of the risks of a rules-free comment board is everyone wants to be G&P!

22044 on October 24, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Role model :)

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

R+5

GALLUP SHOWING ROMNEY COLLAPSE.

INTRADE RISING TO 89%

El_Terrible on October 24, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Are you trying to be funny?

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Sorry to sound so eeyorish, but I feel OH is slipping away, and I don’t know why. Anyone on the ground in OH know anything we don’t??

I think CO, VA, FL, are now seemingly in the bag, OH would clinch it. The alternate path of WI+NH seems the most likely.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Screw Ohio. The union leeches, Obamapho! welfare queens aren’t going to give up the taxpayer bloodsucking.. Pull out of Ohio and throw everything into Wisconsin where we have a proven GOTV that is recently battle tested. Ohio is going to stab us in the back and there’s no point in continuing to chase after it. Wisconsin + NH and this thing is over.

1984 in real life on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Publicly, Romney has to keep investing in OH and holding rallies there, but I think they’ve also gotta go all out for plan B too.

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

PA is 20 electoral votes, more than Ohio & NH combined (if you subtract 3).

So it’s NOT really more than those two combined.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

You funny.

SailorMark on October 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I picture you typing this shit with one hand while lying on your back, smoking a Newport. You’re not even trying. Come on, man! Try harder!

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Then why do 99% of the other polls have it tied or within 2?

wargamer6 on October 24, 2012 at 4:58 PM

But none have Romney in the lead.

If you look at a collection of polls that range from 0 to -5, it’s pure and utter denial to say things don’t look pretty dire.

I think we’re better served from truth than denial.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

i think they take IA before WI. and OH is in the bag. BUT IF, all that happens, and they win comnfortably with 285-290 or something (probably more), and lose WI and certainly MA, could this be the first time the winner loses both the potus and vpotus home state? funny. i always used to knife the libs when they whined about 2000 and just say: “just think if gore had won his home state, it would have been over”. and now perhaps romney/ryan WILL win, probbaly big, with neither winning their home states.

t8stlikchkn on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

good plan…then R will sweep them all. By midnite Nov 6 we will see it and be happy.

gracie on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

That’d be nice!

changer1701 on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Role model :)

jimver on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I am not a row moddow.

This Gumbo crap is a gas! Too bad I’m too lazy to find some links of off the wall polls & sh!t .

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

CNN/Time will do what they have to do to keep the RCP average that we are all supposed to worship having Obama up.

I think it is important to note that these people have sold their soul to help Obama and are screwed if he loses and this Presidency goes into the books as is.

Therefore I would expect that these people WILL NOY even start correcting polls in the usual way close to election. Expect Rasmussen and it looks like Gallup to be going for the gold in getting it right. The rest of these tankers aren’t worth spit!!

Conan on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Forget it. Romney is toast. obama got a belated debate bounce today and this was the wrong time for Romney to have the momentum.

The pendulum is starting to swing back towards obama. A new poll shows obama with a 2 point advantage in OH. Up from even yesterday.

Better luck in ’16, maybe.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Belated bounce? Yeah, Ohioans went to bed and then woke up Tuesday and thought, “ah, I need to think about this more.” And then when Rasmussen called they went 1% closer to Romney than they had been with the same methodology….

oldroy on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Knock yourself out.

Your funeral.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:02 PM

It’ll be a worthy demise.

Liam on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Doom.

D+9 in Ohio is plausible if you believe that Romney was killed by early advertising from Obama (he was) and is damaged by his perceived position on the auto bailouts (he is).

Wisconsin or bust.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Yeah, that’s why Romney is winning indies by 15% in OH and more reputed polls have it tied…Obama can’t even get to 50% with a D+9 poll…considering Ohio is gonna be close to an even split among Ds & Rs…it’s looking good for Romney.

jaygatz33 on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Santorum says PA is in play

workingclass artist on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I read that on here a week ago, from a PA resident. Was begging RR to come there. Said PA was definately in play. He lives there, I suppose he would know.

kcd on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Haha – Ohio will go Romney for all the other reasons the election is going to Romney.

I am convinced the pro Obama pollsters are just trying to keep the state RCP averages in their favor – complete voter manipulation move – to keep their base from completely drying up and allowing Romney to go after more states to help senate candidates. Ohio I figure is teetering, but even keeping the doubt up for a day or so helps Minnesota and Michigan and the dems senate race in Conn.

Zomcon JEM on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Forget Florida. I’m starting to see a hell of a lot more obama signs than Romney.

Momentum will be on obama’s side from here on out.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Beat it troll.

rob verdi on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Doom.

D+9 in Ohio is plausible if you believe that Romney was killed by early advertising from Obama (he was) and is damaged by his perceived position on the auto bailouts (he is).

Wisconsin or bust.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

You are delusional if you believe D+9 in Ohio or even D+2… Romney is going to win Ohio by 2 to 3 points…

mnjg on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Doom.

D+9 in Ohio is plausible if you believe that Romney was killed by early advertising from Obama (he was) and is damaged by his perceived position on the auto bailouts (he is).

Wisconsin or bust.

Nessuno on October 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Dumbest thing I’ve read today.

And I’ve been reading Gumby’s idiotic posts today, too.

Bitter Clinger on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Haha – Ohio will go Romney for all the other reasons the election is going to Romney.

I am convinced the pro Obama pollsters are just trying to keep the state RCP averages in their favor – complete voter manipulation move – to keep their base from completely drying up and allowing Romney to go after more states to help senate candidates. Ohio I figure is teetering, but even keeping the doubt up for a day or so helps Minnesota and Michigan and the dems senate race in Conn.

Zomcon JEM on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Don’t forget the affect on Nate Silver’s infallible machine!

rob verdi on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I picture you typing this shit with one hand while lying on your back, smoking a Newport. You’re not even trying. Come on, man! Try harder!

Rational Thought on October 24, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Marlboro Ultralight 100, actually.

Lanceman on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Who are these idiot trolls? Gallup shows no Romney collapse at all.

Priscilla on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Beat it troll.

rob verdi on October 24, 2012 at 5:05 PM

He’s joking, channeling Gumbey.

ShadowsPawn on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

The trolls are in full panic mode today.

MrX on October 24, 2012 at 5:06 PM

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