Video: CBS focus group in Ohio picks Romney the winner

posted at 11:21 am on October 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Charlie Rose and Norah O’Donnell seem a little surprised by the results of this focus group conducted by CBS during last night’s debate, a group that consists of eight undecided voters in Ohio — a critical swing state for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.  Conventional wisdom and spot polls showed Obama winning a narrow victory over Romney in last night’s debate, but that’s not how CBS’ independents saw it:

That’s 6-2 for Romney, and a couple of other interesting points.  Obama tried very hard to belittle Romney in his response about the Navy, and that clearly backfired.  While panelists cheered the more civil tone after two debates of constant interruptions, Obama’s testiness and scorn came across all the more strongly when it appeared.  Romney succeeded in clearing what Ronald Brownstein called the “commander bar” by appearing more in control of himself and more focused on the future:

Foreign-policy debates between the presidential contenders follow a more predictable pattern than encounters over domestic policy. Inevitably, the challenger accuses the incumbent of indecision and drift and explains how he will bend the world more to his will by showing strength and leadership; the incumbent, with more gray hair than four years earlier—some of which was acquired in long, frustrating negotiations with other nations—tries to explain, without appearing defeatist, that the world isn’t always so easy to command.

Monday night’s final encounter between President Obama and Mitt Romney honored all of those conventions, albeit with fewer sparks than have marked previous such events. … or any challenger, the principal goal in a foreign-policy debate is to cross the bar as commander in chief. For most voters, Romney probably cleared that bar, but he didn’t vault over it.

Speaking of swing states, I mentioned the Rasmussen national tracking poll earlier today.  What about their swing-state tracking poll? While remembering that this won’t have any reaction to last night’s debate, Romney has now moved to a five-point lead in the swing states:

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. …

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and as a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of last night’s presidential debate. Romney has now held a modest lead for 12 of the last 15 days; Obama was ahead twice, and the candidates ran even once.

Romney has an eleven-point lead among independents, 48/37, in these swing states.  That’s a huge problem for Obama.  Romney also has a +15 among men (54/39) and only a -5 among women (44/49) for a +10 gender gap, an enormous shift from 2008.  If these swing state voters in Ohio are at all representative, that’s not going to change as a result of last night’s debate.

Update: Breitbart’s Michael Patrick Leahy thinks Obama may have done himself no favors in Virginia with his snide comment on the Navy, either:

Mr. Obama’s snarky “horses and bayonets” line also backfired. As several Marines and Army veterans tweeted during the debate, Marines still use bayonets. In fact, had the President chosen to station Marines at Benghazi, as he should have, Marines would in all likelihood have used their bayonets when the mission there was attacked. Also, the Army’s Special Forces currently use horses in the mountains of Afghanistan.

But the President’s third self delivered strike is the one that is likely to have the greatest political cost. When he belittled the notion that increasing the current size of our Navy–as Governor Romney suggested–was not worthy of consideration because this “is not a game of Battleship,” he effectively wrote off the State of Virginia, where the Navy’s Norfolk base plays such a huge role in the local economy.

That’s a very interesting point.  Watch Virginia polling — and see whether Team Romney goes with ads in coastal Virginia to emphasize Obama’s derision.


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You will hear it here first. Romney just lost the election to Obama. Time to bail out of the stock market before the new taxes come into play next year.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 4:24 PM

You will hear it here first.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Nope, you are late to the party, and as wrong as the others.

cozmo on October 23, 2012 at 4:29 PM

How do I stop these pop-up ads at HA? Every time I refresh the page…seriously f’n annoying

Jackalope on October 23, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Wow, these Axelrod Sleeper Cells are just like al Qaeda.

Patient.

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 23, 2012 at 4:39 PM

I loved how Obama nailed Romney on underwater ships.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Fixed.

Del Dolemonte on October 23, 2012 at 4:41 PM

IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll

Day 15: Oct. 23, 2012

Obama: +2.0
Obama 46.5% | Romney 44.5%

Sample: 37/30/32 D +7
MOE: +/- 3.5

* Obama’s lead over Romney eroded further in a polling taken the day of the final debate.

* Romney strengthened among males, going from a 1-point deficit two days ago to a 4-point lead.

* Likewise, Romney has gained 6 points among those described as “working class.”

* Romney also appears to have regained momentum among Catholic voters, among whom he was trailing three days ago, but has opened up an 8-point lead.

All of the movement is in Romney’s direction. I’m sure that RuPoll will be along shortly to tell us that, unlike his predicted Obama second-debate bounce, Obama’s third-debate bounce will materialise and reverse Romney’s momentum.

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 4:53 PM

I loved how Obama nailed Romney on bayonets.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 4:21 PM

But, wouldn’t you expect the Commander in Chief to know that bayonets are standard issue TODAY?

In fact, there are more bayonets in the military today than there were in 1914.

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 4:56 PM

In fact, there are more bayonets in the military today than there were in 1914.

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Lets not start that again.

cozmo on October 23, 2012 at 5:02 PM

You will hear it here first. Romney just lost the election to Obama. Time to bail out of the stock market before the new taxes come into play next year.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Moby alert! Moby alert!

“Hi, I’m ________ and I’m a conservative! Here’s why conservatives suck and are going to lose”

Do you lefties really believe this stupid “trick” works?

And, even if you believe it works, do you honestly believe it will work when it is so obvious? Try a little subtlety when you are mobying.

Monkeytoe on October 23, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Also, as to that stupid Bayonet line – there’s also less chariots than during Roman times. How does that respond to Romney’s criticism that the Navy is currently to small to do all that is required of it?

Monkeytoe on October 23, 2012 at 5:05 PM

WAPO

Romney 49
Obama 48

Chuck Schick on October 23, 2012 at 5:07 PM

I’m not a leftie. Romney is just no Reagan. Why does the GOP continue to want to be on the defensive? The only reason they don’t want to find military savings is they gain votes in districts where bases are located. Got to keep military stimulus going.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 5:12 PM

I’m not a leftie.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Then you fooled many people.

The cloak fits you so well.

cozmo on October 23, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Mason Dixon polled Wisconsin (Oct 15-17)and they show Obama leading by a 48%-46% margin.

Romney will be coming here soon, btw.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 5:15 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 5:15 PM

You really had to dig for something not terrible. You poor dear.

cozmo on October 23, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Mason Dixon polled Wisconsin (Oct 15-17)and they show Obama leading by a 48%-46% margin.

Romney will be coming here soon, btw.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Obama won it by 14 in 2008, fyi.

Chuck Schick on October 23, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Video: CBS focus group in Ohio picks Romney the winner

Well, that’s it then. Romney will win by 20 points and 100+ electoral votes so I guess I’ll just stay at home and celebrate while the returns come in./

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 23, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Was Romney wearing sun glasses as there was no daylight between his and Obama’s foreign policy positions.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Again, the GOP is trying to be too clever by half. The GOP lost us the White House last time the same way.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Was Romney wearing sun glasses as there was no daylight between his and Obama’s foreign policy positions.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 5:46 PM

If there’s no daylight, really shouldn’t the joke be that Romney DIDN’T need sunglasses?

Check it out: “Hey, I don’t know why Romney needs sunglasses around Obama. There’s no daylight between their foreign policy positions!”

Way funnier.

Chuck Schick on October 23, 2012 at 5:54 PM

You will hear it here first. Romney just lost the election to Obama. Time to bail out of the stock market before the new taxes come into play next year.

Faramir Grima Wormtongue on October 23, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Much more appropriate Tolkien character, based on your attitude so far. :P

Benedict Nelson on October 23, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Is Faramir Persian or Arab?

My inquiring mind wants to know.

BigAlSouth on October 23, 2012 at 7:29 PM

This focus group took place in my hometown which is mostly democratic. I hope Ohio listens to America!!! Romney/Ryan!!!!!

sweet92169 on October 23, 2012 at 8:09 PM

The debate last night reminded me of Grant accepting the surrender of Lee at Antietam.

txmomof6 on October 23, 2012 at 12:49 PM

This will come as news to the people who run the National Historical Park at Appomattox, Virginia.

IamDA on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

We all know in our heart of hearts and deep in our souls who will win the presidency…

We don’t need any stinking biased polls to tell us lies and to try and dispirit us…

I am NOT moved by polls…

I BELIEVE with all my heart that R&R will win this election.

My glass is FULL!!

Scrumpy on October 23, 2012 at 12:02 PM

same here! Romney will win! I am sure of it.
I was dreaming one night back in 2010 and in my dream there was Obama talking to me and some friends of mine. He was wearing Russian soviet soldiers uniform.
And then he said good- byes and went away and jumped into an old Russian war like truck and he was gone.
I knew then in the morning, that Obama will loose the 2012 year election.

magone on October 23, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Video? I don’t see no video on my iphone….

Sherman1864 on October 24, 2012 at 6:17 AM

I’m not a leftie. Romney is just no Reagan. Why does the GOP continue to want to be on the defensive? The only reason they don’t want to find military savings is they gain votes in districts where bases are located. Got to keep military stimulus going.

Faramir on October 23, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Ok, then you’re clueless.

DevilsPrinciple on October 24, 2012 at 7:24 AM

Norah and Charlie act as if their dog had just died.

Well, at least Obama had something to eat.

RandallinHerndon on October 24, 2012 at 7:46 AM

And, just a small thing, the navy generally refers to all submarines ‘boats’, not ‘ships’.

As a Navy Vet I was screaming at the TV when Dear Leader made this moronic comment. “We have these ships that go underwater” — Barack Obama, Well, in the United States we have this person squatting at 1600 call a Moron.

RandallinHerndon on October 24, 2012 at 7:50 AM

If the takeaways from the final debate have people saying “Well, something could change tomorrow”, you aren’t simply undecided, you are worse than uninformed. If you don’t really know how our government and our laws are supposed to work, and how much the Resident has worked against those things, then shame on you. Better for the nation if you don’t vote at all, and let the adults decide this.

Freelancer on October 24, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Is Faramir Persian or Arab?

Oh my. It’s Gondorian, of course.

winoceros on October 24, 2012 at 1:32 PM

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