Romney inches up, takes lead in ABC/WaPo tracking poll

posted at 8:04 pm on October 23, 2012 by Allahpundit

It’s a two-point gain, flipping a 49/48 lead for O into one for Romney, which isn’t statistically significant. It also doesn’t include reaction to the debate. That’ll start being priced in tomorrow. So why post it? Two reasons. First, it’s been maybe half an hour since we’ve had any poll news on the site and, well, that just won’t do. Second, certain excitable, Obama-worshipping “conservative” pundits are starting to turn desperate at their hero’s predicament, so a poll showing Romney ahead is worth plenty in schadenfreude points.

Plus, there’s a little news too:

But there are fledgling signs of a fresh advantage for the challenger. Asked whom they trust on the economy, 50 percent of likely voters say Romney while 45 percent side with the president. That’s the first time this fall that either candidate has had even an apparent edge on the clear No. 1 issue on voters’ minds. Political independents break for Romney by a 12-percentage-point margin on the subject, a high for the campaign.

Note this as a possible bellwether for other polls this week. One of the Romney victory scenarios involves casual voters finally starting to concentrate on the election in the last few days, gravitating naturally towards the state of the economy, and settling on Romney as a “change” candidate. That couldn’t have happened if he hadn’t passed the test of presidential viability at the debates, but he did, with flying colors in Denver. So maybe ABC’s picking up the first traces of a late, economy-fueled break for the Republican here. And maybe Rasmussen’s swing-state tracker is picking it up too:

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and as a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of last night’s presidential debate.

Over at the Corner, Michael Knox Beran flagged a bit from an AP story claiming that the Obama campaign is preparing a Plan B route to the presidency just in case they lose Ohio. That’s fantastic news for Mitt, as Ohio’s almost a must-win for him, and O’s Plan B is complicated: Assuming that he has 201 EVs in the bank now, he’d need to win Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and either Virginia or Colorado to pull it off. Problem is, he’s leading in each of those first six states right now in the RCP average and he’s effectively tied in Virginia and Colorado (Romney leads by two-tenths of a point in the latter state). In fact, I should probably amend yesterday’s post identifying OH, NH, IA, and NV as the four must-watch states. Wisconsin is actually slightly closer than Nevada in the RCP average, and since we had a huge victory there over the summer and have a native son on the ticket, that’s really more deserving of “decisive toss-up” status than Nevada is. (There are more EVs in Wisconsin, too.) The last time Romney led a poll in Wisconsin was mid-August, though, when he led two, but the last two polls taken this week have him within two points. I assume Paul Ryan will spend the bulk of his time there over the next two weeks while Romney shuttles between Ohio, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Ohio.

Here’s the Onion paying tribute to the casual voters who’ll decide America’s fate for the next four years. Exit question: Second look at Maine’s Second District?

Update: A good catch by ConArtCritic and Ace: Right now, Gallup’s tracker has the partisan ID split among likely voters at … D+0.2. That’s why they’re persistently showing a 5-6 point lead for Romney right now. If that’s how it ends up on election day, a la 2004, then you won’t need to worry about counting electoral votes. Romney wins handily.


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And Gumby the Clown said Walker would get smoked.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Stealth Ground Operation? Hilarious. I’ll bet you tell this to all the Liberal Womyn you meet at bars and abortion clinics.

Corporal Tunnel on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Just a poor attempt at bishing from that one…he never gets if right, he’s too strident for that…

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

alchemist19 on October 23, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Yep. And they are.

KCB on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

C’mon, coward…

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Don’t forget Gumby lies all the time. One dishonest schmuck.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

‘Obama didn’t lose the election, he just didn’t get enough votes.’

ERMERGERD!!!

GEERMBY!!!!

07NOV12.

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Loooool :)

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 8:49 PM

A partners divorce records?! Well, way to go Obama, attach yourself to another cheap trick. Did anyone else see that really cute black girl on FOX this morning that was an “undecided”? She said Obama’s performance last night was embarrassing, and that he came off like a bully. She’s going Romney. I knew women would find him offensive- and dip squat Obama played right into Romneys hands.

BettyRuth on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

I didn’t hear it, but apparently Howie Carr said it was a divorce case involving an ex-business partner of Romney’s. How he knows that, or what they think they’ve got with it, I don’t know.

changer1701 on October 23, 2012 at 8:44 PM

That’s awfully odd… Does Allred even have any idea how she’s going to turn it against Romney or are they at the point where they’re just flailing so hard that they hope anything even remotely connected to the guy can be somehow used against him?

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

13 days and poof, you’re gone.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

I think poll troll meant Romney is in his nightmares. I hope poll troll wets his bed again.

txhsmom on October 23, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Fixed

chewmeister on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Conservative4ev on October 23, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Obama looked terrible yesterday. He looked so bad, even I felt sorry for him, and I can’t stand the man.

ghostwriter on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Crap,sorry,stupid linky malfunction,me try dis again!

CNN Political Ticker ‏@PoliticalTicker

Bogus letters questioning Florida voter citizenship investigated http://bit.ly/SpfqbP

canopfor on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Leftards boo 9 year old girl?

Such scum.

http://freebeacon.com/msnbcs-morning-joe-crowd-boos-9-year-old-girl-for-supporting-mitt-romney/

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:52 PM

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Did you ever get an explanation about “Bishop”.

Cindy Munford on October 23, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Romney should be in Ohio today/tomorrow and not in Nevada, which he’ll lose by 2 pts on election day.

Wisconsin would have been a better choice than NV coming out of the debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
@JohnEkdahl Early voting in NV isnt as good as could be – WI is tightening more too. They’re probably similar in odds, but I like WI more

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Bogus letters questioning Florida voter citizenship investigated http://bit.ly/SpfqbP

canopfor on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

“Not only Republicans but very active Republicans – Republicans that have taken some action that goes beyond voting,” Sancho said. “I suspect whoever’s sending out these letters has purchased some kind of donor or campaign list that’s given them a group of high-profile Republicans.”

Leave it to a bunch of stupid liberals to send this type of letter to the very people who would be least likely to believe it!

Night Owl on October 23, 2012 at 8:55 PM

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Wow, imagine getting all 101% of the vote.

Tzetzes on October 23, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

So many people I thought it was a Sandra Fluke Rally!!!! Not even gonna bother with a tag.

KCB on October 23, 2012 at 8:56 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

WOW!

gophergirl on October 23, 2012 at 8:56 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
@JohnEkdahl Early voting in NV isnt as good as could be – WI is tightening more too. They’re probably similar in odds, but I like WI more

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

You already posted that on the first page, now you’re just spamming.

Be gone you fool.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Holy Moley!

Cindy Munford on October 23, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Reagan vs. Mondale V. 2.0…let’s destroy the Bringer of the Blight in the Electoral College results..

hillsoftx on October 23, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Barring a major flub by one side or the other, it is down to turn out. Looking at the top line numbers on those polls is misleading. Election projection has the battle ground states with the polls adjusted to match partisan turn out for 2004, 2008 and and average between the two.

If you take the polls as of Oct 20, Obama takes CO, IA, NV, NH, OH, PA, VA and WI. Mitt gets NC and FL. EV totals are 303 Obama, 235 Mitt.

If you adjust those polls to 2008 turnout, the percentages change very slightly, but the EV stays 303 Obama, 235 Mitt.

If you assume the states have the same partisan turnout as 2004, then Obama gets IA and PA, while Mitt gets CO, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI and NC/FL. EV totals are 243 Obama, 295 Mitt.

If you average the 2004/2008 partisan turnout and compare it to the polls as is, WI goes back into the Obama column and the rest of the 2004 turnout model pick ups stay with Mitt. EV totals 253 Obama, 285 Mitt.

Bottom line is turnout. If the dems have great turnout and the GOP lousy turnout, Obama wins. If the dems and GOP match 2004 (nationally, 2004 was even on dem/GOP percentages), then Mitt wins. Even if you spot the dems “half a wave”, they lose.

Bottom line is getting out the GOP vote.

yetanotherjohn on October 23, 2012 at 8:58 PM

I am impressed Sulivan managed to sink lower then being a trig truther.

rob verdi on October 23, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Early voting is not going well, folks.

Told ya it was a problem…

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Aw shucks! Do you have any evidence of that? I didn’t think so.

Battleground Watch has articles that show the numbers for early voting looking good for Republicans in Nevada and Ohio. They are outperforming 2008 numbers by a huge amount. It all points to a victory on November 6th.

TarheelBen on October 23, 2012 at 8:58 PM

@ flora duh

That scared me until I clicked. A-mazing.

BettyRuth on October 23, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Romney should be in Ohio today/tomorrow and not in Nevada, which he’ll lose by 2 pts on election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Good news, I found a picture of the Romney event in NV today. You’re right, it looks like he doesn’t stand a chance there by the small crowd that was present. http://t.co/uDJ3lI8Y

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Gumby, do you even read numbers muncher’s blog? Or do you just randomly copy and paste his twitter account? You should check out his blog, I don’t think he’s saying what you think he’s saying.

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Wow, Obama dropped almost 4 points IN A SINGLE DAY on inTrade.

Maybe the jig is up?

tkyang99 on October 23, 2012 at 8:14 PM

R a c i s t ! !

slickwillie2001 on October 23, 2012 at 9:00 PM

13 days and you will be gone forever.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 8:22 PM

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!

Guess again! He’ll be here and the resta ya will eat it up!

“Don’t worry cons
the adults are in charge
thank you president obama”

Ring a bell? Cause you are just as deluded and genuinely stupid as that commenter.

tom daschle concerned on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Those are three different commenters.
Afrolib
getalife
crr6

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:00 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Look at all those racists !!!!!!!
;-)

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Good news, I found a picture of the Romney event in NV today. You’re right, it looks like he doesn’t stand a chance there by the small crowd that was present. http://t.co/uDJ3lI8Y

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Those pictures are such a spirit lifter.

gophergirl on October 23, 2012 at 9:01 PM

“He’s leading in the RCP average…”

RCP average means about as much as Intrade. All you have to do is game the system. In fact, if you are a pollster, if you tell the truth right now, no more paid polls. If you have mouths to feee, you can’t do that. Better to cheat and get paid, than tell the truth and go broke.

oldroy on October 23, 2012 at 9:01 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

awesome…thanks for sharing Flora Duh

CoffeeLover on October 23, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Allahpundit gets around to the pink elephant in the room. Turnout.

The likely voter screen includes the question “did you vote in 2008″ and that was a record turnout for Dems. That means they are getting through the likely voter screen at a rate they don’t deserve because lots of them are not voting now that Hope and Change is over.

Gallup is probably correct and Rasmussen wrong about the 2008 oabam voters he is including a nd the 6 point lead by Romney is the real election day numbers.

I noticed Rasmussen’s numbers jumping up. He might be asking more direct questions with 2 weeks to go that can reveal who is going to the polls. We’ll see.

Conan on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

That looks like Red Rocks Amphitheater…if so, seating is 9,500…!

hillsoftx on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Yowza.

WisRich on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Funny how you ignore the context behind that tweet, which is the fact that Romney will be going to Wisconsin next week because it’s dead even there.

Guess what, gumballs, if Wisconsin is even and Nevada about so, then Ohio is lost to you and these states are just the difference between 285 and 301…

bradcundiff ‏@bradcundiff
@justkarl @jpwilloughby campaign just confirmed Mitt will be in WI next week.
Expand

47m NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
That should scare the WI is not in play crowd RT @bradcundiff @justkarl @jpwilloughby campaign just confirmed Mitt will be in WI next week.
Expand

41m Just Karl ‏@justkarl
@NumbersMuncher @bradcundiff @jpwilloughby Q re NV is whether Team R is serious, or figures it’s worth it bc they already planned CO trip.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

28m NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
@justkarl @bradcundiff @jpwilloughby Yeah I would agree they are close enough to go and make a play. NV/WI are probably both about even odds
Expand

28m John Ekdahl, Jr. ‏@JohnEkdahl
@NumbersMuncher Huh, I would have guessed NV was the easier of the two at this point.
Expand

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

That’s awfully odd… Does Allred even have any idea how she’s going to turn it against Romney or are they at the point where they’re just flailing so hard that they hope anything even remotely connected to the guy can be somehow used against him?

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Nope, she has no clue at this point. She is just trying to get Mitt’s testimony unsealed in a prior court case at the
Probate and Family Court in Boston, I think. The judge might tell her to go pound sand though. It’s all hanging.

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

If any of the polls have any substantive accuracy, I find it more interesting that six months of the entire MSM pulling for Obama in all its ways has resulted in what is basically a statistical tie.

Think of it–all the networks and other outlets; all the pundits they have; all the so-called fact checking; all the man-hours and money spent; all the following up on lies told by others like Harry Reid and new crap by Allred–all of that combined has Obama in nothing better than a tight race.

I find the situation, and the MSM, pretty pathetic for their side. Any bounce presumed or predicted never materialized for them. The joke moderators failed at their jobs, too, in that they couldn’t disqualify Romney in any of the debates; they were all over matched by one single man they absolutely neither like nor will truly accept as president. Matthews is already trying to sustain and (he hopes) expand a personal dislike of Mitt Romney in the hearts and minds of the American people by throwing out the race card last night.

Only one poll counts, in two weeks. It can’t come soon enough for me, so we can finally stop hearing from the MSM and, with any luck, also see their most venomous pundits weeded from the airwaves for good.

Liam on October 23, 2012 at 9:03 PM

“Gumby, do you even read numbers muncher’s blog? Or do you just randomly copy and paste his twitter account? You should check out his blog, I don’t think he’s saying what you think he’s saying.

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:00 PM”

Absolutely.

On twitter, people were wondering why Romney went to NV. And he tweeted that early voting wasn’t going well there. He said WI would be a better bet than NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:03 PM

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!

Guess again! He’ll be here and the resta ya will eat it up!
Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:00 PM

I remember when getalife made the same promise and reappeared, only to have Ed show him to the door.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Absolutely.

On twitter, people were wondering why Romney went to NV. And he tweeted that early voting wasn’t going well there. He said WI would be a better bet than NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Ahhh the anecdotal …lovin it.

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

C’mon, coward…

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Crickets.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 9:05 PM

He’s in Colorado tonight. I don’t know why he would even bother when he gets a lousy turnout like this: http://twitpic.com/b6umfu

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Wherever he goes, his crowds are amazing…almost unthinkable a few months ago…

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 9:05 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:03 PM

So, you don’t actually read his blog then? Good to know. Keep those random copy paste twitter feeds going!

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Heh! Watching you jokers respond to the ol’ Gumbo is too funny!

No matter how much I guarantee you he’s voting for Romney, and no matter how outrageous his goalpost moves are, you all are like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the football!

Every thread is one big Gumbo response.

I do like this new Akiuko troll. She’s much more inventive and articulate than libtard4life.

Wish she’d comment more.

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:07 PM

That’s awfully odd… Does Allred even have any idea how she’s going to turn it against Romney or are they at the point where they’re just flailing so hard that they hope anything even remotely connected to the guy can be somehow used against him?

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Speculation is that Allred is representing the ex-wife in the case. What the ex-wife has a problem with, though, is anyone’s guess. The fact the Boston Globe will also be pushing for the gag order to be lifted is curious, too, but the bottom line is the Left is desperate right now and they’ll cling to anything they can.

changer1701 on October 23, 2012 at 9:08 PM

I caught a piece of the War on Bacon today and the gentleman who they had on is in Ohio (sorry I didn’t get his name). He said that today’s Obama/Biden event was crowd estimated at 9,000 people. Compared to Romney event 3 weeks ago where they estimated crowds to be between 15,000-16,000 people.

CoffeeLover on October 23, 2012 at 9:08 PM

With President Romney on his way to the win, I kinda miss PopTEch posting Mitt’s resume every five minutes.

KirknBurker on October 23, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Stop spoiling the fun. Gumby’s the only one left fighting the good fight.

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Obama will lose Ohio because of the deep roots of Racism/anti semitism there, but hew will make up for it with decisive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a come from behind layup in Georgia and South Carolina where me and others have been helping to put together a stealth ground operation.

Just words? A lot of people said Obama wouldn’t win NC, VA, and FL in 2008, too.

akaniku on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

HAHAHAHAHAHA LOL

Barred on October 23, 2012 at 9:10 PM

That looks like Red Rocks Amphitheater…if so, seating is 9,500…!

hillsoftx on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

That is Red Rocks.

That place is very cool…even if it is in Colorado….

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I remember when getalife made the same promise and reappeared, only to have Ed show him to the door.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Yes, but he made a short reappearance as gotmylifeback.

And he was shown the door for a racist remark or attacking Ed’s wife, I forget which.

Gumbo doesn’t do anything. It’s alla you that engage him!

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Only thing left is which media organizations will break from Obama first to try to save a shred of credibility – and viewers/readers/listeners.

Looks like Chuckie Todd must’ve got a-hold of the higher ups at ABC and explained the math, and that they need to start easing over into real numbers.

oldroy on October 23, 2012 at 9:11 PM

I just don’t see the battleground states breaking for Romney much right now. He has narrow leads in FL and VA, but isn’t pulling away by any stretch. And, of course, he trails in OH by a few pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

So, the battleground states are, somehow, radically different from the rest of the country, eh?

In 2008, McCain narrowly beat Obama in MO +0.1%. Today, R +11.
Swing: R +10.9

In 2008, O won Indiana +0.9. Today, R +12.
Swing: R + 11.3

In 2008, O won North Carolina +0.4. Today, R +5.6
Swing: R +4.8

In 2008, O won Virginia +6.3. Today, RCP has it tied, but most believe that R is +2.
Swing: At a tie, it is Obama -6.3.

In 2008, O won New Hampshire +9.5. Today, R +2.
Swing, R +11.5

In 2008, O won Wisconsin +13.9. Today, O +2.7.
Sample: O -11.5

In 2008, O won Florida +2.5. Today, R +1.8.
Swing: R +3.3.

In 2008, O won Colorado +8.6. Today, R +0.2.
Swing: R +8.8.

In 2008, O won Nevada +12.4. Today, 0 +2.8.
Swing: 0 -9.6.

You would have us believe that swing states are going to buck the national trend. Do you really think that anyone, who wins the popular vote by, say, more than 1.5% is going to lose the EV?

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Nope, she has no clue at this point. She is just trying to get Mitt’s testimony unsealed in a prior court case at the
Probate and Family Court in Boston, I think. The judge might tell her to go pound sand though. It’s all hanging.

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Doesn’t surprise me. They’ve gone from thin gruel to grasping at air randomly hoping it will defy physics and start spouting thin gruel.

Hope the judge tells her to bug off. Although there’s a fair chance she gets some big nothingburger that she manages to trumpet for the interest of a Fluke-sized crowd. At this point, I’m actually more worried about Trump’s surprise hurting Mitt…

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 9:11 PM

If that’s how it ends up on election day, a la 2004, then you won’t need to worry about counting electoral votes. Romney wins handily.

yeah, duh. its been tracking that way since april. are you bitten too like herschel?

t8stlikchkn on October 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Lighten up, Francis and go entertain yourself.

Sarah Palin Is Writing a Fitness Book

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Stop spoiling the fun. Gumby’s the only one left fighting the good fight.

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Gumbo’s schtick is getting old.

Now this akinkuckoo is an up & comer.

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Sarah Palin Is Writing a Fitness Book

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Man, she’s hot!

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

“President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney among likely Virginia voters, according to a new Old Dominion University poll, but the survey – taken in the weeks before and after their first debate – indicates Romney is closing the gap.

The landline and cellphone survey, conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 17 by ODU’s Social Science Research Center, found that Obama was favored by 50 percent, Romney by 43 percent and three other presidential candidates by a combined 3 percent.”

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/obamas-still-virginia-romneys-closing-gap

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Stop spoiling the fun. Gumby’s the only one left fighting the good fight.

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Odd how they all managed to disappear all at once. Then some showed back up very briefly when they thought Biden was winning the VP debate, disappeared again when it turned out nobody else thought so, showed back up when they thought Barry won the 2nd debate over Libya, disappeared again when it again turned out nobody else thought so….

Gotta hand it to gumby, he sticks around for the repeated buttkickings… he’s either a real good sport or a sick sick basterd. A very devoted troll either way.

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Speculation is that Allred is representing the ex-wife in the case. What the ex-wife has a problem with, though, is anyone’s guess. The fact the Boston Globe will also be pushing for the gag order to be lifted is curious, too, but the bottom line is the Left is desperate right now and they’ll cling to anything they can.

changer1701 on October 23, 2012 at 9:08 PM

I’m trying to picture in my mind how Hussein’s minions came up wityh this dirty trick.
Maybe one day, Hussein pulled one of them out off his thong and ordered him to go unseal Mitt Romney’s divorce records.
When he found out that neither Mitt, nor his wife and not even the Romney children have any divorce records, Hussein wanted the records of Romney’s extended family and cousins and their in-laws to be unsealed. When even that didn’t work out, he started trolling court records for Romney’s business partners/associates, based on IRS records, I’m sure.

Then they found AllRED , the best bottom feeder to turn tricks for Hussein so late in the game .

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 9:16 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Jeeze..rogerb is going to have to purchase an external hard drive just for your dumb ass….

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 9:18 PM

O/T: David Limbaugh on Hannity now BTW, he’s always a good read on Twitter.

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 9:18 PM

according to a new Old Dominion University poll

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Hold it.

There’s a New Old Dominion?

Now I’m confused.

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Flora Duh- thanks for the pics. Way cool. :)

wolly4321 on October 23, 2012 at 9:19 PM

@rick_wiley: Red Rocks in CO for @MittRomney Unbelievable crowd. VICTORY http://t.co/S3q2RhmF

mrscullen on October 23, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Jeeze..rogerb is going to have to purchase an external hard drive just for your dumb ass….

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Heh. I’d hate to archive search Gumbo.

But then I ask, what reason would I have for doing so?

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Early voting is not going well, folks.

Told ya it was a problem…

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Stop reading mass headlines.

The reason Team Barry is looking at an alt-B without Ohio is because the early voting is off from ’08 in the Big Dem Counties.

As I’ve been saying.

Voter roll purge. Population shift.

You have some dramatic shifts in areas Obama cannot afford to have it.

’08 20k Dem absentee turning into 12K now, while Reps where 12K in
’08 and 11K in ’12.

Or a huge drop in a major Dem county of 43K to 16K absentee, while the Rep number of 12K stays the same. Meaning a 33% advantage is down to 8%.

Couple that with explosions in some exurbs, and the state is moving Republican.

What Team Barry is not sure, is how much vote they’re cannibalizing for election day, which is why they’re hellbent for college campuses.

At this point, I’m seeing Romney carry the state by at least W’s 2.1% margin. Hopefully, it will be closer to 4 so the growing “Election Truthers” will STFU.

budfox on October 23, 2012 at 9:20 PM

but the survey – taken in the weeks before and after their first debate – indicates Romney is closing the gap.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Two week old news of Obama ahead by seven when the “polls” have swing by 15?

Largest fraud perpetrated on America? Obama 2008.

Second? News media and polling 2012.

It’s over. Romney 300+ electoral votes. By all measures of history, by all measures of the internals, it’s over.

oldroy on October 23, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

C’mon, coward…

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Come on Gumby, answer the question, the more dodge, the more pathetic you look.

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

It’s a two-point gain, flipping a 49/48 lead for O into one for Romney, which isn’t statistically significant.

This is a terrible misstatement/misapplication of the concept of MoE (aka confidence interval) and confidence levels. Statistically, there is a significant probability that the percentages have shifted in Romney’s favor. Given a 3% MoE and a standard Bell curve of survey results vs. actual population measured, a ballpark estimate would be that this survey is indicating an 84% chance that Romney is tied or ahead, at least within the context of the way this particular poll is conducted.

A 95% confidence interval (standard for these polls) is 2 standard deviations from the mean (47.5% in each direction). One standard deviation represents a 68% confidence interval (34% in each direction). For Obama to be ahead, the results would have to be outside one standard deviation from the mean in a pro-Obama direction, and the odds of that are approximately 16%.

HTL on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

The landline and cellphone survey, conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 17 by ODU’s Social Science Research Center, found that Obama was favored by 50 percent, Romney by 43 percent and three other presidential candidates by a combined 3 percent.”

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/obamas-still-virginia-romneys-closing-gap

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

What a useless poll. 2/3rds of the poll was before the first debate! And the 1/3rd after the poll favored Romney.

Of the 465 voters surveyed, about two-thirds were contacted before the debate and supported Obama by a wide margin. But most of the other one-third polled after Oct. 3 favored Romney.

STL_Vet on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
@JohnEkdahl Early voting in NV isnt as good as could be – WI is tightening more too. They’re probably similar in odds, but I like WI more

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Alzheimer setting in prematurely? :)… How many times you posted that on this thread alone? ..anyways, try lecithin, it helps :)…

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Sarah Palin Is Writing a Fitness Book

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Ok. Let’s name it: I’ll start

Fit for Office

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Time to start focusing on Senate races.

Romney will follow through to the end. It’s what he does. It’s time for the base to start worrying about the Senate.

oldroy on October 23, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Man, she’s hot!

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Yep, watch out Suzanne Somers.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Come on Gumby, answer the question, the more dodge, the more pathetic you look.

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

*facepalm*

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Man, she’s hot!

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

No kidding. Like the time she said she’d abolish the corporate income tax and end all corporate welfare.

Spontaneous combustion.

KirknBurker on October 23, 2012 at 9:23 PM

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Palin’s quite a bit on the skinny side for me.

I do have that XXX vid. Lisa Ann is a perfect Palin.

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

*facepalm*

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Oh mind your own business, I’m having fun ;)

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

oldroy on October 23, 2012 at 9:22 PM

You are correct.

I’m concerned we come up short of the 51.

KirknBurker on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

“You would have us believe that swing states are going to buck the national trend. Do you really think that anyone, who wins the popular vote by, say, more than 1.5% is going to lose the EV?

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 9:11 PM”

First, I’m not sure how much of a national trend there really is. Romney leads by under one point and that lead could be gone in a day with tightening in Gallup (which is happening now) and Rasmussen.

And I still think Ohio is locked for Obama, which guarantees his re-election. If it hasn’t moved by now, it’s not going to move suddenly in the last two weeks.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

changer1701 on October 23, 2012 at 9:08 PM

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Yep. Overall just another of the many displays of late proving that Chicago is completely out of ideas.

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Oh mind your own business, I’m having fun ;)

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

I’m sorry. I think I was the only one to catch the irony in your comment.

But if I can’t get RWM to quit it, what chance do I have convincing anyone else?

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:26 PM

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/obamas-still-virginia-romneys-closing-gap

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Wow..they should just rename the headline…’It’s 3 am, still dark outside, but there’s a chance that the sun will come up tomorrow..’

When I read this crap, I always think about that scene in ‘Seven’.

The one where Brad Pitt asks Kevin Spacey..”Do you wake up one day and just go ‘Wow, I can’t believe how #)(#*)it crazy I am?’

Does that ever happen with you people?? Or is it just one never ending circle of rationalization??

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 9:26 PM

And I still think Ohio is locked for Obama, which guarantees his re-election. If it hasn’t moved by now, it’s not going to move suddenly in the last two weeks.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

So Obama is going to get 47% of the vote in Ohio and he’s going to win?

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 9:27 PM

And I still think Ohio is locked for Obama, which guarantees his re-election. If it hasn’t moved by now, it’s not going to move suddenly in the last two weeks.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 9:28 PM

And I still think Ohio is locked for Obama, which guarantees his re-election. If it hasn’t moved by now, it’s not going to move suddenly in the last two weeks.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

What the hell are you talking about?

It’s moved in every poll – towards Romney.

What you’re asking for is some massive statistical anomalies to occur, instantly. It doesn’t work that way.

budfox on October 23, 2012 at 9:28 PM

I’m sorry. I think I was the only one to catch the irony in your comment.

But if I can’t get RWM to quit it, what chance do I have convincing anyone else?

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Probably very little, it’s just too fun!

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 9:29 PM

First, I’m not sure how much of a national trend there really is. Romney leads by under one point and that lead could be gone in a day with tightening in Gallup (which is happening now) and Rasmussen.

And I still think Ohio is locked for Obama, which guarantees his re-election. If it hasn’t moved by now, it’s not going to move suddenly in the last two weeks.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Hahahahahahahaha

Wow, he really is the most moronic person on the face of the earth.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Final-Debate Polling: Romney Gains Under the Radar

By Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher

The final debate was widely considered the final opportunity to change the trajectory of the race — and President Obama won the initial “snap polls” taken immediately following the debate, just as he did after the second debate. A closer look at the numbers, however, might indicate the victory is not going to translate into a bounce in the polls.

CBS conducted an online snap poll after the debate which had:

* Obama winning 53–23

* Obama led 64–36 on terrorism

* The candidates split 50–50 on handling China

The poll did not get any demographic information, which makes measuring the poll’s results difficult.

CNN Poll:

The CNN telephone snap poll showed a much tighter Obama win of 48–40 (RV, 34/30/36).

* 59 % felt O did a better job than they expected while 44% said the same of R.

* Stronger leader? Obama led 51–46.

* Who felt the debate helped them decide who to vote for, it was 24% for O and 25% for R.

When all is said and done, O’s +8 “debate victory” actually translates to a +1 net gain for R.

PPP (telephone snap in swings, 43/37/20):

* O won, 53–42

* Handling foreign policy O 51–47, but Indies gave R a +1, 49–48 advantage.

* Overall, 37% more likely, 31 less likely to vote for O. 38 more likely, 35 less likely to vote for R.

While independents by a 55–40 percent margin felt Obama won the debate, they became more likely to vote for Romney (47 more likely — 35 less likely) than Obama (32 more likely — 48 less likely).

It’s obviously too early to tell what impact tonight’s debate will have on the polls in the coming days, but the initial reaction feels very similar to the second debate: While Obama may have walked away a slight overall winner, Romney appears to be quietly scoring wins on the issues among independents. And come November 6, that’s the only thing that will matter.

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Gloria Allred is looking to get court documents related to a nasty divorce unsealed. Apparently, Romney had to testify or made a statement to the court. He must have known the husband in some capacity. My guess is Allred will trot out her client who will say that she was beaten up by her husband and Romney’s testimony in court prevented her husband from being locked up.

Wigglesworth on October 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM

“What the hell are you talking about?

It’s moved in every poll – towards Romney.

What you’re asking for is some massive statistical anomalies to occur, instantly. It doesn’t work that way.

budfox on October 23, 2012 at 9:28 PM”

I can’t recall a single recent poll of OH where Romney has lead by more than one point.

It’s a weak state for him.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Probably very little, it’s just too fun!

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Yeah. Might as well stop tryin’.

What the hell. I like to go Gumbo on threads too. But most people know me.

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM

HTL on October 23, 2012 at 9:21 PM

What he said.

DrStock on October 23, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Wow, he really is the most moronic person on the face of the earth.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 23, 2012 at 9:30 PM

No, that would be Kunta.

Lanceman on October 23, 2012 at 9:31 PM

The landline and cellphone survey, conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 17 by ODU’s Social Science Research Center, found that Obama was favored by 50 percent, Romney by 43 percent and three other presidential candidates by a combined 3 percent.”

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/obamas-still-virginia-romneys-closing-gap

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Quoting a MONTH LONG poll? The desperation is strong in you…..as well as the stupidity.

Animal60 on October 23, 2012 at 9:31 PM

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