Romney inches up, takes lead in ABC/WaPo tracking poll

posted at 8:04 pm on October 23, 2012 by Allahpundit

It’s a two-point gain, flipping a 49/48 lead for O into one for Romney, which isn’t statistically significant. It also doesn’t include reaction to the debate. That’ll start being priced in tomorrow. So why post it? Two reasons. First, it’s been maybe half an hour since we’ve had any poll news on the site and, well, that just won’t do. Second, certain excitable, Obama-worshipping “conservative” pundits are starting to turn desperate at their hero’s predicament, so a poll showing Romney ahead is worth plenty in schadenfreude points.

Plus, there’s a little news too:

But there are fledgling signs of a fresh advantage for the challenger. Asked whom they trust on the economy, 50 percent of likely voters say Romney while 45 percent side with the president. That’s the first time this fall that either candidate has had even an apparent edge on the clear No. 1 issue on voters’ minds. Political independents break for Romney by a 12-percentage-point margin on the subject, a high for the campaign.

Note this as a possible bellwether for other polls this week. One of the Romney victory scenarios involves casual voters finally starting to concentrate on the election in the last few days, gravitating naturally towards the state of the economy, and settling on Romney as a “change” candidate. That couldn’t have happened if he hadn’t passed the test of presidential viability at the debates, but he did, with flying colors in Denver. So maybe ABC’s picking up the first traces of a late, economy-fueled break for the Republican here. And maybe Rasmussen’s swing-state tracker is picking it up too:

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and as a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of last night’s presidential debate.

Over at the Corner, Michael Knox Beran flagged a bit from an AP story claiming that the Obama campaign is preparing a Plan B route to the presidency just in case they lose Ohio. That’s fantastic news for Mitt, as Ohio’s almost a must-win for him, and O’s Plan B is complicated: Assuming that he has 201 EVs in the bank now, he’d need to win Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and either Virginia or Colorado to pull it off. Problem is, he’s leading in each of those first six states right now in the RCP average and he’s effectively tied in Virginia and Colorado (Romney leads by two-tenths of a point in the latter state). In fact, I should probably amend yesterday’s post identifying OH, NH, IA, and NV as the four must-watch states. Wisconsin is actually slightly closer than Nevada in the RCP average, and since we had a huge victory there over the summer and have a native son on the ticket, that’s really more deserving of “decisive toss-up” status than Nevada is. (There are more EVs in Wisconsin, too.) The last time Romney led a poll in Wisconsin was mid-August, though, when he led two, but the last two polls taken this week have him within two points. I assume Paul Ryan will spend the bulk of his time there over the next two weeks while Romney shuttles between Ohio, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Ohio.

Here’s the Onion paying tribute to the casual voters who’ll decide America’s fate for the next four years. Exit question: Second look at Maine’s Second District?

Update: A good catch by ConArtCritic and Ace: Right now, Gallup’s tracker has the partisan ID split among likely voters at … D+0.2. That’s why they’re persistently showing a 5-6 point lead for Romney right now. If that’s how it ends up on election day, a la 2004, then you won’t need to worry about counting electoral votes. Romney wins handily.


Real Americans Square Off With The Candidates In The 2012 DemocraKiosk Debate


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Romney hitting new highs on intrade…

He should be over 50 within 10 days…

MGardner on October 23, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Bishop

PolAgnostic on October 23, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Gloria Allred is all the liberals have left. They deserve her.

Philly on October 23, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Gumby?

Electrongod on October 23, 2012 at 8:07 PM

These guys had better not try black jack in Lost Wages cause their ability to see the hand writting on the wall and the dealers showing cards makes it clear they will not know they have lost until the fat lady is in bed with them and asking for the money.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 23, 2012 at 8:07 PM

On another positive note-my leftie facebook friends are now publicly admitting that they don’t think 0 can win…

One is complaining that his girlfriend is going to lose her Pell grants when Romney is president.

PetecminMd on October 23, 2012 at 8:08 PM

gumby!

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Romney should be in Ohio today/tomorrow and not in Nevada, which he’ll lose by 2 pts on election day.

Wisconsin would have been a better choice than NV coming out of the debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Right, and you know this how? All your predictions have been wrong.

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Please put a muzzle on the insufferable Bill OReilly. Can we talk about somebody other than you? Dr Krauthammer th psychiatrist should send you a bill after that pathetic segment. He was kind not to lock Bill Oh up.

Marcus on October 23, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Romney should be in Ohio today/tomorrow and not in Nevada, which he’ll lose by 2 pts on election day.

Wisconsin would have been a better choice than NV coming out of the debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

That the Obama camp is even talking about losing Ohio is a stunning turn of events.

No wonder, then, that Romney seemed like the man who was winning last night. When he spoke, you thought “energy in the executive.” When Obama spoke, the words that came to mind were “fatigue,” “apathy,” “frustration.” In his closing statement the president was clearly rattled, lamely reciting talking points we’ve heard too often before, not even pretending to care about what he was saying — simply wanting it to be over. It was as though a light had gone out. Was he disconcerted by the smoothness of Romney’s performance? Or is his campaign’s internal polling in Ohio less pretty than his people are letting on?

By gumby

Conservative4ev on October 23, 2012 at 8:13 PM

PetecminMd on October 23, 2012 at 8:08 PM

LOL. Pell grants were never given before Obama.

txhsmom on October 23, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Wow, Obama dropped almost 4 points IN A SINGLE DAY on inTrade.

Maybe the jig is up?

tkyang99 on October 23, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Wisconsin would have been a better choice than NV coming out of the debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

It doesn’t matter where he Mitt goes.

You will always have a different opinion..

Electrongod on October 23, 2012 at 8:14 PM

BTW, just got a call that Romney will be here next week.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:15 PM

ERMERGERD!!!

GEERMBY!!!!

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 8:16 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:15 PM

No, no you didn’t.

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Romney inches up, takes lead in ABC/WaPo tracking poll

The REAL numbers must be pretty bad for them to admit that.

GarandFan on October 23, 2012 at 8:17 PM

“NO ONE believes ABC/WaPo because EVERYONE knows that it is secretly controlled by Rupert Murdoch and his evil, gold-crusted-roasted-over-slow-flames-newborn-eating son. IBD/Tipp is another outfit that you JUST SHOULD NOT PAY THE SLIGHTEST HEED even though I said last week that it was the “gold standard” when it comes to polling. Another thing, Intrade must have been taken over by Richard Mellon Scaife and his buddies because there is NO WAY that Romney’s odds of winning should be ANYWHERE in the 40s and moving higher. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nada. None.

Gallup, like PPP, is a Republican-leaning polling outfit funded by the Koch-sucking Brothers. This is even more so since Obama and Axelrod had Holder sue them. Gallup is intentionally doctoring the sample by adding more African-Americans and Hispanics, which is always going to lead to a more Romney favourable result.

Karl Rove, Grover Norquist, Darth Cheney, Justice Scalia, that House ‘igga, Clarence Thomas, and Ahnta Jemima, Condi Rice, are part of a cabal that control the real forces behind the American Research Group and Susquehanna. Anyone, and I mean ANYONE, who believes that Obama isn’t winning Pennsylvania by 157 points and Oiho by 458 is a damn lunatic! I know because I had lunch with some “very popular” politicians in Wisconsin today and they are “in the know,” if you know what I mean.

CNN is more conservative than even Faux News. Candy is a complete Republican stooge and threw the ultimate lifeline to Romney. The people in the audience were all a bunch of conservative plants and asked questions written for them by the Romney campaign.

Romney is NOT leading Obama by 6 nationally…and do NOT even get me started on Rasmussen – that, that Sheldon Adelson outfit. If Ras is claiming 4 for Romney, that means Obama will win 40,000+ electoral votes.

He’s NOT leading in the swing states. Romney is NOT gaining in Pennsylvania. There will NOT be a landslide in ANY bitterclinger county in America much less the overwhelming majority.

Obama IS leading in Texas, Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas by more than 20 points in each state.

You people are D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N-A-L!

By the way, did you see the new poll from Kim Jong-un POLLytech University? It has Obama up by 63 points nationally with a R +74. Oh, and the Castro-Guevara-Chavez Battleground Poll of the Swing States has Obama wiping Romney’s blood off the floor with a 75 point lead and has a sample of 2/3,798/468 (D/R/I).

You wankers had better catch up! Even true cons are voting for my Dear Leader!”

– RuPoll a/k/a gumbyandpokey of HotAir.com, Assistant Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

PS: Media Matters is about to break a huge story! Frank Luntz is actually a NorKo op. He is using a form of MK-ULTRA to get non-sexist, racist, bigoted, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic, totalitarian theocrats to become sexist, racist, bigoted, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic, totalitarian theocrats so that Obama will be defeated…leaving Kim Jong-un the undisputed kewlest, hipsterest leader on the planet. So there!

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

ERMERGERD!!!

GEERMBY!!!!

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Nice! LOL!

tom daschle concerned on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Hate to break to old Gumbo, but when your up 4 points nationally the state polls don’t matter…

MGardner on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Romney should be in Ohio today/tomorrow and not in Nevada, which he’ll lose by 2 pts on election day.

Wisconsin would have been a better choice than NV coming out of the debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Nah, Romney’s got Ohio. As much as you love to eat up the vomit that Obama spews about the auto bailout, I don’t think the 20,000+ employees that work for Honda, Ford, and their support companies (as well as those employees’ friends and families) in Ohio are praising Obama for bailing out their competitor. Now the 10,000+ employees that work for Government Motors in Ohio may, but I believe 20,000+ is larger than 10,000+.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Gumby you’re a joke.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Don’t get complacent, people. Get out to your local election HQ and help out with calling voters.

Midwestprincesse on October 23, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Gloria Allred is all the liberals have left. They deserve her.

Philly on October 23, 2012 at 8:06 PM

specially since Mitt Romney doesn’ t have a divorce /child custody record which Hussein can unseal :(

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 8:19 PM

BTW, just got a call that Romney will be here next week.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:15 PM

How is Romney going to fit his entourage into your basement?

Erich66 on October 23, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I just got a call from Obama; he’s giving up New York.

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:21 PM

On another positive note-my leftie facebook friends are now publicly admitting that they don’t think 0 can win…

Great! Let’s hope it is the start of a negative cascade for Teh One.

Charlemagne on October 23, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Romney inches up, takes lead in ABC/WaPo tracking poll
========================================================

SADDLE UP,………….ForWard YO HO!!!

http://www.secondcavalry.org/2US_9VA/Bugle%20Calls/charge.wav

canopfor on October 23, 2012 at 8:22 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:15 PM

13 days and you will be gone forever.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 8:22 PM

One is complaining that his girlfriend is going to lose her Pell grants when Romney is president.

Ignorance like that doesn’t deserve a Pell grant and should probably be kicked out of college.

Charlemagne on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

If I saw even one–ONE!–poll out of Ohio that had Mitt in the lead, I would feel good.

Same goes for NV and WI.

By my estimation, if the election were today, Mitt would win the vote total but lose the electoral college.

Still, with two weeks left, I’d rather be in Mitt’s position than Obama’s.

Nessuno on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

“Hate to break to old Gumbo, but when your up 4 points nationally the state polls don’t matter…

MGardner on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM”

True, but he’s not up 4 pts. I believe that the RCP average is Romney by less than a point.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Marcus on October 23, 2012 at 8:13 PM

BOR wants so badly to be involved in this race but has no idea what he is talking about. He seemed to be on an ego high because CBS had him on today…

d1carter on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

No punk.

The most powerful sword in the world is wielded by….Samurai Jack.

Jack/Sarah 2016

KirknBurker on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

How is Romney going to fit his entourage into your basement?

Erich66 on October 23, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Don’t worry. Even with all of the voices, there’s still lots of room for Romney and his entourage to fit into RuPoll’s head.

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

It’s funny how gumballs never wants to comment on how bad his predictions are. He’s swinging 0/100.

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:24 PM

BTW, just got a call that Romney will be here next week.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:15 PM

You dressing up as big bird?

Conservative4ev on October 23, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Maybe the jig is up?
tkyang99 on October 23, 2012 at 8:14 PM

racist
/

DiscePati on October 23, 2012 at 8:25 PM

How is Romney going to fit his entourage into your basement?

Erich66 on October 23, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I think poll troll meant Romney is in his nightmares. I hope poll troll wets his bed.

txhsmom on October 23, 2012 at 8:25 PM

specially since Mitt Romney doesn’ t have a divorce /child custody record which Hussein can unseal :(

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 8:19 PM

That’s true, but it is being reported that she’s going to court tomorrow to get some type of court records involving Romney unsealed.

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Gumby you’re a joke.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

It’s the only one left. I appreciate its tenacity. My favorite parts are the “insider” gossip!

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 8:26 PM

“If I saw even one–ONE!–poll out of Ohio that had Mitt in the lead, I would feel good.

Same goes for NV and WI.

By my estimation, if the election were today, Mitt would win the vote total but lose the electoral college.”

Wow, an accurate, realistic post!

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Marcus on October 23, 2012 at 8:13 PM

BOR wants so badly to be involved in this race but has no idea what he is talking about. He seemed to be on an ego high because CBS had him on today…

d1carter on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Bill is MAD about Libya! Bill want answers from those responsible in Libya! Bill is furious about Libya!

So Bill attack Romney.

Marcus on October 23, 2012 at 8:27 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:28 PM

It doesn’t matter where he Mitt goes.

You will always have a different opinion..

Electrongod on October 23, 2012 at 8:14 PM

This January, Mitt can go straight to the White House and gumby can go straight to h@ll!

LevinFan on October 23, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Charlemagne on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

What makes it worse is that his posts are usually a mishmash of 0 talking points, Lord of the Rings quotes, and Yoda-speak. And ALL CAPS!! He’s actually quite entertaining, in a weird sort of way…

PetecminMd on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Bill O’Reilly will go to his grave kissing Obama’s butt and afraid of him. He might lose his cred with Jon Stewart.

Marcus on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Obama will lose Ohio because of the deep roots of Racism/anti semitism there, but hew will make up for it with decisive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a come from behind layup in Georgia and South Carolina where me and others have been helping to put together a stealth ground operation.

Just words? A lot of people said Obama wouldn’t win NC, VA, and FL in 2008, too.

akaniku on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Wow, an accurate, realistic post!

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Oh yes because laying out the facts about Ohio’s auto industry jobs and showing how moronic you really are isn’t accurate or realistic at all.

No wonder you are wrong so often. You live in a fantasy world.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Gumby, I know your expertise (lol) is in state by state polling, but I’m wondering if you’d care to weigh in on what percentage of the popular vote you think Obama will get on nov 6?

I’m at a firm 47.0%. What say you?

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Does

“Don’t worry cons
the adults are in charge
thank you president obama”

Ring a bell? Cause you are just as deluded and genuinely stupid as that commenter.

tom daschle concerned on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

If I saw even one–ONE!–poll out of Ohio that had Mitt in the lead, I would feel good.

Same goes for NV and WI.

By my estimation, if the election were today, Mitt would win the vote total but lose the electoral college.

Still, with two weeks left, I’d rather be in Mitt’s position than Obama’s.

Nessuno on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

I live in Ohio and all anecdotal evidence points to Obama losing. I’ve been purposely answering unknown calls this election and the polls have amped up in the last week or so.

buckichick1 on October 23, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Wow, an accurate, realistic post!

*Excuse me while I toot my own horn!–germyandpukey*

predator on October 23, 2012 at 8:30 PM

On another positive note-my leftie facebook friends are now publicly admitting that they don’t think 0 can win…

One is complaining that his girlfriend is going to lose her Pell grants when Romney is president.

PetecminMd on October 23, 2012 at 8:08 PM

This is the kind of poll I actually believe. I watch the number of Obama and Romney posts on facebook and the responses. The Obamabots are mostly silent.

redeye on October 23, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Michael Knox Beran flagged a bit from an AP story claiming that the Obama campaign is preparing a Plan B route to the presidency just in case they lose Ohio.

They are losing. Absolutely terrific. The dirty little secret is also that they also can’t put everything into Ohio because Pennsylvania and Michigan are falling. Obama’s campaign is out of gas and out of ideas. One senses a bit of inevitability in Mitt’s campaign now.

Corporal Tunnel on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

True, but he’s not up 4 pts. I believe that the RCP average is Romney by less than a point.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Give it a week, the other polls are starting to gravitate toward Gallup and Rasmussen…

The TIPP poll has Romney up 4 points in two days…

It should a solid 3 point lead for Romney in the RCP average within 10 days…

MGardner on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

It also doesn’t include reaction to the debate. That’ll start being priced in tomorrow. So why post it? Two reasons. First, it’s been maybe half an hour since we’ve had any poll news on the site and, well, that just won’t do.

heh

I would call this poll the ABC/WAPO reaction to the debate

Last one in to massage the data is a rotten egg

Andy Warhol wrote about the problem of, say, walking into a room with a pimple on your face. To dispel awkwardness, one must announce to the crowd right away that you have a pimple on your face, and thus diffuse the undercurrent of pity and disgust at the unmentionable horror. Paraphrasing what he wrote, but that was the gist

In other words, you must own the pimple before someone else claims the privilege

entagor on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Gumby’s a pro at moving the goal posts.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

That’s true, but it is being reported that she’s going to court tomorrow to get some type of court records involving Romney unsealed.

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:25 PM

I wonder if Hussein told AllRED the right marxist judge to pick for her latest attempt at relevence !

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

That’s true, but it is being reported that she’s going to court tomorrow to get some type of court records involving Romney unsealed.

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Said this on the ‘Bacon’ thread, but a commenter at Ace’s place heard via Howie Carr show it has to do with the divorce of one of Mitt’s former business partners.

Mitsouko on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

BTW, just got a call that Romney will be here next week.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I just want to take this opportunity to congratulate you. You have taken your very limited knowledge and parlayed it into 15 minutes of fame here at Hot Air. You have been wrong all along, but you have consumed Lord knows how much time and bandwidth arguing your points and suckering others into arguing with you. It’s like being good at calligraphy or something, neither impressive or useful, but no one can say you don’t have a talent.

Night Owl on October 23, 2012 at 8:33 PM

*checks calendar*

Why its just like 1980!

Two weeks before the election and suddenly the polls have swung the other direction…gee, its almost like you could predict this stuff.

This time, however, I doubt that the MFM will be able to keep any credibility. It has pushed this piece of limp spaghetti about as far as it can go.

ajacksonian on October 23, 2012 at 8:33 PM

50:50 says PA goes for Romney

petefrt on October 23, 2012 at 8:34 PM

If I saw even one–ONE!–poll out of Ohio that had Mitt in the lead, I would feel good.

Nessuno on October 23, 2012 at 8:23 PM

And if I saw one, ONE! poll out of Ohio that had Obama over 50% I’d be worried. Ohio will go to Mitt. Heck, even in some bizarre scenario where it doesn’t, Obama will still not get more than 47% nationwide. Mitt will win, the only question is by how much.

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 8:34 PM

We are up in Ohio by about 4 points.

Check out the partisan split on the recent polls. Romney isn’t +19 with independents and then going to lose Ohio.

We are actually going to win this.

jhffmn on October 23, 2012 at 8:34 PM

tom daschle concerned on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Sounds like gumby needs to getalife, doesn’t it?

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Oh and if the average voter starts to realize Obama isn’t going to win this election, expect it to not even be close. People like to pick a winner.

jhffmn on October 23, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Oops………………..

300 more suspected noncitizens found on Colorado voter rolls in second round of checks – @AP

36 secs ago from bigstory.ap.org by editor
==============================================

APNewsBreak: Suspected noncitizens found in Colo.

— Oct. 23 7:50 PM EDT
**********************

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/apnewsbreak-suspected-noncitizens-found-colo#overlay-context=article/coroner-ala-body-may-be-linked-tenn-slayings

canopfor on October 23, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 8:18 PM

excuse me while i leave my caps-lock on.

BWHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHA

Corporal Tunnel on October 23, 2012 at 8:36 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:28 PM

It is pretty clear: Gumby’s not so smart.

Atomic.Bomb.

CW on October 23, 2012 at 8:37 PM

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:28 PM

I hope you’re just trying to goad it into saying something stupid. Again. You know it’s just gonna come up with another ridiculous story about how Romney has lost Bayonet Sharpeners Local #315 in downtown Marion because of the debate and now can’t win Ohio or the election!

PetecminMd on October 23, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Yes Gumby, please answer these questions. They’ve been asked of you many times and you always run away. You have been wrong every single time, why do you expect people to listen to anything you say?

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 8:38 PM

It’s like being good at calligraphy or something, neither impressive or useful, but no one can say you don’t have a talent.

Night Owl on October 23, 2012 at 8:33 PM

HAHAHH!

ShadowsPawn on October 23, 2012 at 8:39 PM

4 years in office.

2 of the 4 years with Dem congress.

2 weeks before the election, they come up a pamphlet with a “plan”.

Ben Hur on October 23, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Breitbart has a piece about NBC claiming that Romney will rig the voting machines in Ohio due to some connection Tagg has with the company that makes them.

It’s extreme desperation time over at the Peacock network.

predator on October 23, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Sounds like gumby needs to getalife, doesn’t it?

Flora Duh on October 23, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Flora Duh:Or skinny dipping with GrowFins!(sarc):)

canopfor on October 23, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Corporal Tunnel on October 23, 2012 at 8:36 PM

If RuPoll doesn’t stop trashing polls, networks, etc, all he is going to be left with is the poll deciding what the colour theme should be for Lennox Middle School prom and his MiniTru post will consume all of the available bandwidth.

Resist We Much on October 23, 2012 at 8:40 PM

2 weeks before the election, they come up a pamphlet with a “plan”.

Ben Hur on October 23, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Planned Pamphlethood.

predator on October 23, 2012 at 8:41 PM

I realize that I’m on the late show, but what are the court records that Allred is trying to get unsealed in Boston tomorrow. What past litigation has Romney been involved in?

BettyRuth on October 23, 2012 at 8:41 PM

“Gumby, I know your expertise (lol) is in state by state polling, but I’m wondering if you’d care to weigh in on what percentage of the popular vote you think Obama will get on nov 6?

I’m at a firm 47.0%. What say you?

happytobehere on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM”

Somewhere between 50%-51%.

I just don’t see the battleground states breaking for Romney much right now. He has narrow leads in FL and VA, but isn’t pulling away by any stretch. And, of course, he trails in OH by a few pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

akaniku on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Well, okay then. *Backs away slowly….*

Night Owl on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

but hew will make up for it with decisive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a come from behind layup in Georgia and South Carolina where me and others have been helping to put together a stealth ground operation.

Just words? A lot of people said Obama wouldn’t win NC, VA, and FL in 2008, too.

akaniku on October 23, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Stealth Ground Operation? Hilarious. I’ll bet you tell this to all the Liberal Womyn you meet at bars and abortion clinics.

Corporal Tunnel on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Just stop it. Your opinion is worthless.

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a huge bounce from the jobs report?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the Biden debate?

Didn’t you say that Obama would have a bounce from the 2nd debate?

Didn’t you say that Gallup would be favoring Obama today?

wargamer6 on October 23, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Predictive power like that, wouldn’t you just like to take ol’ gummo to Vegas sometime?

Mike Tyson is untouchable. Hate to break it to you, but there is no way Buster Douglas gets near him.

gumbyandpokey on February 11, 1990 at 4:26 PM

Gingotts on October 23, 2012 at 8:43 PM

In 2004 with an economy in far better shape than what we have right now the 9% of the electorate who say they didn’t make up their minds for sure until the final three days voted for Kerry by about nine points. Late deciders gave Reagan his margin in a bad economy against Carter. If Romney is trusted that much more on the economy then they should be sweating bullets in Chicago.

alchemist19 on October 23, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I just don’t see the battleground states breaking for Romney much right now.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Heck dumby, you don’t see much of anything.

May I suggest a trip to the optometrist.

cozmo on October 23, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Romney should be in Ohio today/tomorrow and not in Nevada, which he’ll lose by 2 pts on election day.

Wisconsin would have been a better choice than NV coming out of the debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Aww, am sure Romney campaign will confer with you shortly, to ask for your invaluable opinion :)…meanwhile, you can continue with your little lucrative business of driving the Dim GOTV bus in the low income neighborhoods of Ohio, make sure every homeless and Section 8 person voted twice :)…I mean it’s gonna be historic, right? :)…

jimver on October 23, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I realize that I’m on the late show, but what are the court records that Allred is trying to get unsealed in Boston tomorrow. What past litigation has Romney been involved in?

BettyRuth on October 23, 2012 at 8:41 PM

I didn’t hear it, but apparently Howie Carr said it was a divorce case involving an ex-business partner of Romney’s. How he knows that, or what they think they’ve got with it, I don’t know.

changer1701 on October 23, 2012 at 8:44 PM

‘Obama didn’t lose the election, he just didn’t get enough votes.’

ERMERGERD!!!

GEERMBY!!!!

07NOV12.

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I just don’t see the battleground states breaking for Romney much right now.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Do you see anything at all besides the inside of your rectum?

alchemist19 on October 23, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Said this on the ‘Bacon’ thread, but a commenter at Ace’s place heard via Howie Carr show it has to do with the divorce of one of Mitt’s former business partners.Mitsouko on October 23, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Wow, that is so important for the future of our country, specially since we still don’t know who planned, executed, funded and coordinated Fast and Furious gun running ,to kill Americans .

burrata on October 23, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Somewhere between 50%-51%.

I just don’t see the battleground states breaking for Romney much right now. He has narrow leads in FL and VA, but isn’t pulling away by any stretch. And, of course, he trails in OH by a few pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Aren’t you ever tired of being wrong? You want to try telling people again how the auto bailout is helping Obama in a state where only 10,000 employees in the auto industry work for Government Motors and their support companies while over 20,000 employees in the auto industry work for Honda, Ford, and their support companies?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 23, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Oops Part Deux!

Bogus letters questioning Florida voter citizenship investigated – wp.me/p4HKM-15PP

canopfor on October 23, 2012 at 8:47 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
@JohnEkdahl Early voting in NV isnt as good as could be – WI is tightening more too. They’re probably similar in odds, but I like WI more

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:47 PM

A good catch by ConArtCritic and Ace: Right now, Gallup’s tracker has the partisan ID split among likely voters at … D+0.2. That’s why they’re persistently showing a 5-6 point lead for Romney right now. If that’s how it ends up on election day, a la 2004, then you won’t need to worry about counting electoral votes. Romney wins handily.

D+0.2 is certainly not out of the question. The Rasmussen party affiliation has it at R+2.6 right now – and they’ve got an excellent track record on this going back to 2004. For example, in 2008 right before the vote, they had it at D+7.6, and the exit polls wound up with D+7.

TarheelBen on October 23, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Really hoping that rogerb is paying special attention to this idiot in the off chance it still has the won tons to stick around after the election.

Laugh Riot.

BigWyo on October 23, 2012 at 8:47 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM

If Obama does pull out a win it will be with a minority of states because CA alone has 55 EVs. What is your opinion on federalism and devolving power back to the states where it constitutionally belongs?

As a resident of a red state it really makes me mad that a minority of blue states can in effect dictate to the rest of us via the executive branch’s control of the bureaucracy.

Charlemagne on October 23, 2012 at 8:47 PM

I just don’t see the battleground states breaking for Romney much right now.

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:42 PM


It’s hard to see from mommy’s basement.

JPeterman on October 23, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Early voting is not going well, folks.

Told ya it was a problem…

gumbyandpokey on October 23, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3