Suffolk poll of Ohio: Romney 47, Obama 47

posted at 4:44 pm on October 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Of the four most recent Ohio polls, two have the race tied, one has O up by a single point, and the other you already know about. An interesting tidbit from the new Suffolk poll: They’ve got Romney up three points among people who haven’t voted yet and Obama up 13 points among those who already have. That’s not surprising given how hard O’s been pushing people to vote early, replete with the specter of overflowing toilets on election day. He wants those ballots locked in just in case the country receives some new bit of terrible news down the stretch (e.g., another miserable jobs report on November 2) and/or he has another dial-tone debate tonight. If Obama had held his own in Denver, I bet a chunk of his early votes right now would be coming from persuadables who had concluded that the race was over and they might as well send their vote for O in ASAP. As it is, those persuadables are most likely now holding off in order to take a longer look at Romney, which means virtually all of O’s early votes are coming from people he would have had on election day anyway. Essentially, he’s helping himself now on turnout by prodding lazy voters to act early, but he’s not taking votes away from Mitt.

For the time being, I’m really only watching four polls: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The national polls like Gallup and Reuters are useful for trendspotting, to capture broad momentum shifts in the electorate or the lack thereof (for example, Obama’s gotten no bounce from his alleged second debate “win”), and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are worth peeking in on since they’re still in play, but there’s a good chance that those four states I named will determine the election. My working assumption is that Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will stay close but all ultimately tilt red, which, if true, would give Romney another 51 electoral votes on top of the 206 that are already leaning his way in RCP. Speaking of which, more good news from CO via Rasmussen:

Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided…

Romney now leads among all Colorado voters when they are asked whom they trust more in two key policy areas. He’s ahead 51% to 44% when it comes to the economy and 51% to 45% in the area of national security.

Obama led in Colorado by a point as recently as two weeks ago. Once Romney’s at 257 EVs, he wins the election by taking either (a) Ohio or (b) the other three states I named, all of which are currently led — narrowly — by Obama in RCP’s poll average. Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio? Ohio is where he’s spending time and money right now; I can see all of that attention paying off in a win there while the other three states, comparatively neglected, fall to O. If those states end up turning red, though, then it almost certainly means that there’s a national surge breaking for Romney among late-deciders which means all sorts of other states would be turning red too — including Ohio. Essentially, I can see him winning narrowly with Ohio or winning big as voters nationally turn on The One, but it’s hard to see a narrow win without Ohio. Unless something magical starts to happen…

Via Newsbusters, here’s Chuck Todd sounding bullish on Romney, and not for the first time today either.


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“It is all up to GOTV in Ohio.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM”

Yep, which is why Romney will lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Loool :) there aren’t enough homeless and obamaphonites, illegals and dead people to put O ocer the fiish line in Oiho :), no matter the dumbocrats’ GOTV effort…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Yes, but the old cemeteries in Ohio are filled with Civil War vets so they will vote Republican when they rise from the dead.

KirknBurker on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Pardon, my ignorance. But can they make it VP Obama, since he is on the ticket? Or does it have to be from the VP spot?

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

I think it would be Biden. Here’s the relevant part of the 12th Amendment:

The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Word is that the Obama’s are trying to figure out how to break the news to Uncle Joey, er, I mean Vice President Biden BiteMe. They don’t want to break his heart.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Man, I gotta fix all your stuff tonight.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Tied?! How the hell so many people can still back the ass hat we’ve currently got in the White House is beyond me. The more I learn about what transpired in the days leading up to the Benghazi assault, the more spitting mad I get. I want all the brain-dead Obama leaners and fence sitters to feel the same.

If you haven’t seen the Benghazi timeline outlined by Bret Baier on FNC’s Special Report this past week, you owe it to yourself to go to Foxnews.com and watch it — part 1part 2.

Hard as Team Obama tries to run out the clock, this story isn’t going away. I hope Romney highlights tonight some of the emerging info about intel being outright IGNORED by the Obama administration because the consulate attack in Benghazi didn’t fit their “foreign policy narrative”. Given proper spotlight, these inconvenient facts will require some serious spin and splainin’ from the Obama regime. New lies will have to replace the old ones.

As bad as the info in the Baier report is, you have to see the even MORE damning testimony that came from CIA and military ops guys who appeared on the Judge Jeanine Show Saturday night 10/20 — (skip ahead to 1:30). It’s beyond comprehension what those poor American souls were put through for what appears to be an f’d up adhearance to a back-assed political narrative.

Some key quotes to fuel your ire….

Former CIA Officer, Gary Berntsen: “The administration could have had a special ops team on the ground (in Benghazi) in less than an hour, to repel the attackers and extract the personnel… What is not being discussed is the personnel in Benghazi must have been screaming for help. There were options for the administration to help and intervene. They could have sent in an AC130 Talon, with computerized machine guns, all it would have taken is one pass, it would have beaten the attackers back. Then they could have sent in a QR or Quick Reaction Force. Yet, there is no discussion of this at all… The military could have sent in a tier-one team. This fight went on for over eight hours!”

Lt Colonel Anthony Shaffer: “I have talked to folks who have seen the video (from drones over the Benghazi Consulate the night of the attack), and that video is damning, and it needs to get out for the public to see. They could have had an FBI team on the scene on the ground (in Benghazi) in less than 24 hours, up and ready to go… We could have had a marine amphibious unit in there in 30 minutes or less.”

Former CIA Op Mike Baker: “It’s insane. For the White House to have chosen the narrative that they did really defies belief in reality. That intel hits the White House immediately. So they get this information and, quite frankly, what I think they did is they dismissed it, set it aside because it didn’t fit the narrative that they wanted.”

SO the key takeaway here: There are US military vessels off the North African Coast that could have sent help to Stevens and company in a half hour. A HALF HOUR! Instead, our US ambassador and three other Americans with him layed there under siege in what must’ve been hell on earth for EIGHT hours! The Obama administration knew what was going on, had the option to use military force to protect and possibly rescue our diplomats in Benghazi, but chose not to do so.

One might think (hope) that some of this intelligence — such as the video footage — winds up “leaking” in the next week as the ultimate October Surprise… Payback from the intel community for having been thrown under the bus by Obama and Biden.

swanzoid on October 22, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Yep, which is why Romney will lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Also obligatory:

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 6:03 PM

My friend’s cousin works in the White House and she told me President is already packing his stuff….he thinks he’s going to lose. True story.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

I can confirm as my cousin made the packing cartons sent the White House and his friend of another friend has already been hired to drive the moving van all the way across the Pacific to Hawaii.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Gee, I thought they would prefer to use O’bamna’s nifty Intercontinental Railway…

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Actually, the newly elected House Representatives and Senators are the ones who will vote.

If we win the Senate, you get VP Ryan.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I know, but you are more optimistic about the Senate than am I. :-)

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

There is already talk of riots if Team Romney wins…

… Just sayin’.

The Left has never peacefully given up power…

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Please stop the “riots if Romney Wins” talk – you are doing a disservice to Hot Air.

It allows people to paint it as being populated by the far right, luntic fringe.

There will ne NO riots.

Voicing this canard undermines the foundations of our Republic. It is not who we are or have ever been.

When you can point to an occasion where rioting in America has EVER benefited the people who rioted AND the neighborhoods where the riots took place, maybe there would be some slender thread to hang this fear on.

Until then, behave like adults and stop inflaming people’s fears.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

It doesn’t matter if Biden was somehow Romney’s VP.

Romney would shove him into a closet like Nixon did with Spiro Agnew.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 6:07 PM

thurman on October 22, 2012 at 5:54 PM

That says more than all the likely turnout models being used by pollsters.

A state that isn’t in play, in blue areas people are turning out to vote early.

Chick-fil-a on a bigger scale.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 6:08 PM

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

didn’t gore get more votes than bush in 2000 although bush won in electoral votes

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Actually, the newly elected House Representatives and Senators are the ones who will vote.

If we win the Senate, you get VP Ryan.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I know, but you are more optimistic about the Senate than am I. :-)

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

And what of the very realistic (more so than 269-269 IMO) possibility of a 50-50 Senate? Biden gets to tie break for himself? Ugh. I suppose that means there’s at least a 20% chance he’d screw up and choose Ryan by accident.

I sure hope Coburn is working over Manchin particularly hard to account for a Murkowski or Collins hosing us too.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 6:09 PM

I know, but you are more optimistic about the Senate than am I. :-)

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

True, but if you read my earlier posts on this thread, you can see the reasons for my optimism.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

This is my best take on why it is likely all over except for the explosion of heads/ possible suicides on MSNBC on November 6th.

Romney is going to win barring unlikely exceptional circumstances.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Is that you Pragmatic? Or Gumby?

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Performance art! *applause*

If Romney promises to give them food and air in those binders, will you change your mind??

kim roy on October 22, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I recall reading somewhere that California and maybe a few other states had passed a law giving its EC votes to the winner of the popular vote. Is that not going to affect the outcome?

The way I see it, whoever wins the popular vote wins the election. The chances of a split outcome are pretty low.

I haven’t seen anyone talking about the new state laws regarding popular vote, so maybe it isn’t taking effect this election.

Nicole Coulter on October 22, 2012 at 6:11 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I hope Trump doesn’t do something stupid. If this is something dumb or inconsequential(or something the left can paint as inconsequential), The Donald should just keep his mouth shut. He could do more to harm Mitt’s momentum if it is not something that will make EVERYONE question the prospect of another four years of Obama.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 6:12 PM

so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

You are aware that Obama could not run again in 2016 if he were to win this election? Or, do you think we would change the rules just for the Lightbringer?

jffree1 on October 22, 2012 at 6:13 PM

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Hey y’all, why lose heir over something that isn’t very likely to happen?

If it does, then we can worry about it.

C’mon now, forest, not those trees way on the other side.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

It works for 50 shades of gray-

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 6:15 PM

didn’t gore get more votes than bush in 2000 although bush won in electoral votes

Gore beat Bush by only 0.5% of the popular vote. Back in 2004 when Bush beat Kerry by about 2.4%, he got 286 EVs. The scenario where Romney wins by 2% or more and still not get 271 is just VERY VERY VERY unlikely. It just doesn’t seem mathematically possible.

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I recall reading somewhere that California and maybe a few other states had passed a law giving its EC votes to the winner of the popular vote. Is that not going to affect the outcome?

The way I see it, whoever wins the popular vote wins the election. The chances of a split outcome are pretty low.

I haven’t seen anyone talking about the new state laws regarding popular vote, so maybe it isn’t taking effect this election.

Nicole Coulter on October 22, 2012 at 6:11 PM

The states that have passed this law have all included the caveat that it does not go into effect until states with a total of more than 270 EV adopt it.

An interesting thought, however, is that the periodic census re-allocation of House seats could change that coalition of states with 270 EV’s in one election into a coalition with only 264 later. I don’t think they have put in an escape clause, so they would then have to scramble to get out one at a time.

HTL on October 22, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Ohio Leans Romney, because of Obama’s War on Coal and Oil! Obama still wants to get the price of gasolone to European levels, in order to justify his failed policies on Solar & Wind! The Solyndras are not going to be forgotten! No matter how much the Obama jihadi media tries to spin an Obama win, it will only be in the mind of sycophants and agenda driven trolls. The fight needs to be waged against the media, just like the muslim jihadis or they will feel emboldened and encouraged to attack, non-stop til Nov.6th. Here’s how Mitt can beat the Obama Jihadi media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 22, 2012 at 6:17 PM

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Agreed. Ohio means 279. That’s all that matters right now.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Until then, behave like adults and stop inflaming people’s fears.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Uh, hate to break it to you, but….

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 6:19 PM

didn’t gore get more votes than bush in 2000 although bush won in electoral votes

Gore beat Bush by only 0.5% of the popular vote. Back in 2004 when Bush beat Kerry by about 2.4%, he got 286 EVs. The scenario where Romney wins by 2% or more and still not get 271 is just VERY VERY VERY unlikely. It just doesn’t seem mathematically possible.

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 6:16 PM

That 0.5% margin was the very same margin that originally triggered the automatic machine recount of Florida. Meaning that if Florida’s standard applied nationwide, which of course it doesn’t, the entire country would have had to be recounted!

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 6:22 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

are you sure your not gumbyandpokey

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Oops. Didn’t mean to make all of my post a link, but oh well, it works.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 6:34 PM

octsurprise was a rickroll

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I have said it before and I will say it again Allahpundit. Wisconsin might be Go Republican even If Ohioh doesn’t and with NH,Iowa or Nevada that is 270.

Obama is not strong in Wisconsin and has no “gaming” in place. You have an AWESOME ground game that just delivered Walker by 7 and MORE than his 2010 total.

Seriously Allahpubit you should include Wisconsin as the place we have an undetected advantage.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 6:40 PM

octsurprise was a rickroll

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I must admit I was disappointed. They Rick rolled everybody the other day. I was expecting they had something real this time, probably foreign policy geared. Major news out of Russia, or something.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 6:42 PM

OH please most people would have voted later anyways.

CW on October 22, 2012 at 6:43 PM

so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

You are aware that Obama could not run again in 2016 if he were to win this election? Or, do you think we would change the rules just for the Lightbringer?

jffree1 on October 22, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Hahahahaahahahahahaaha

CW on October 22, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Let me throw this out to the numbers crunchers as to a possible tie in electoral votes. Maine has four EVs which are apportioned by district of which there are four. One district is heavily Republican so it is a distinct possibiliy that Romney will win this district. Frankly I see a blowout win for Romney because of two things. One is the Independent vote wich will go for Romney on the ratio of 3-l. I base this on my belief that that is the ratio of conservatives/evangelicals versus liberals. The next thing is my belief that the guilt ridden Obama 2008 voters will deem that it is not racist to vote for Romney this time.

Big Nicholas on October 22, 2012 at 6:47 PM

“It is all up to GOTV in Ohio.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM”

Yep, which is why Romney will lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

We are not talking about people lining up to poke you, moron.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 6:48 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

and your mother is the bearded lady with the goiter.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Uh, hate to break it to you, but….

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 6:19 PM


Seriously???
These are fools on the internet/twitter. They are less “real” than the trolls we have on here.

Maybe some of you are too young to remember when we had REAL riots in this country.

RIOTS are the ultimate pyrrhic victory … and many people living in the neighborhoods where they might start are more likely to shoot the rioters than join the riots.

For every real world fight I have seen – I have seen 1,000 instances of some idiots bumping chests and calling names but not willing to go any further.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

After reading that comment again, maybe he just did not include the sarcasm tag.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 7:01 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Wow…WORST…MOBY…EVAR.

Dirt McGirt on October 22, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Come on Akaniku. you are no more Republican than Obama is a moderate. I believe you are just trying to incite us conservatives to respond to the bilgewater you are spouting.

Big Nicholas on October 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Loool :) there aren’t enough homeless and obamaphonites, illegals and dead people to put O ocer the fiish line in Oiho :), no matter the dumbocrats’ GOTV effort…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

That’s why early mail in Hussein voters will be voting a SECOND TIME. That was the idea all along…

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

OH has a number of counties where voter rolls exceed actual residents. Have no idea why OH has not cleaned up the rolls since 2010.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

MontanaMmmm on October 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Oh geeze, gumby is gonna’ spank you for that.

Then spend hours tellin’ us why it is actually good news for 0bama.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Are you done with your homework for school tomorrow? Then run up the stairs, your mom has dinner ready.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Wow…WORST…MOBY…EVAR.

Dirt McGirt on October 22, 2012 at 7:01 PM

I’m not sure this one is even a citizen judging from the “domestic leader” bit plus not knowing that Presidents can’t serve but two terms. Wouldn’t that be special if the O crew is outsourcing trolls along with campaign donations?

jffree1 on October 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

MontanaMmmm on October 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

October 4th?

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Hey, RuPoll, you were saying about Ohio and Romney’s GOTV:

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican–a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican–only a five point gap.

The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.

–Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20 point shift.

–Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18 point shift.

–Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15 point shift.

–Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) – 6 point shift.

–Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.

–Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10 point shift.

–Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23 point shift.

–Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17 point shift.

–Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6 point shift.

–Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16 point shift.

–Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM – 24 point shift.

–Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17 point shift.

–Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27 point shift.

–Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14 point shift.

–Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27 point shift.

–Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11 point shift.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

OH has a number of counties where voter rolls exceed actual residents. Have no idea why OH has not cleaned up the rolls since 2010.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Uh… there was a story within the last week or so that said Ohio purged over 400,000 names.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

So, what happens on Nov 7th? Mass assisted suicide starting on Upper East Side/West Side and rolling slowly to Hollywood? Or mass exodus of all communists to their Motherland (Russia) on airlines with First Class tickets in hand?

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Uh, hate to break it to you, but….

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Seriously??? These are fools on the internet/twitter. They are less “real” than the trolls we have on here.

Maybe some of you are too young to remember when we had REAL riots in this country.

RIOTS are the ultimate pyrrhic victory … and many people living in the neighborhoods where they might start are more likely to shoot the rioters than join the riots.

For every real world fight I have seen – I have seen 1,000 instances of some idiots bumping chests and calling names but not willing to go any further.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I am less inclined to just pooh-pooh the possibility of this happening. Remember when the police in LA were getting off with nothing more than a slap on the wrist for beating Rodney King? Yes, they had a right to be angry, but riots?!! Do things the legal way.
Then do you remember when it looked like O.J. was looking like he was going to get put away(for doing away with two white folk)? The blacks were getting agitated about that and it looked like it was going to be the LA riots all over again(so they let O.J. off).

Fast forward to today. You have the combination of blacks, most of whom voted for Obama just because he is black(YES they did), and some of those voted for him because they figured he was going to “give them stuff.” Combine that with the anarchistic, entitlement-minded libs like those in the OWS movement, along with the race-baiting, socialism-minded press as their propagandists, and there could be some riots happening.

But as far as that goes, I hope we give them the reason to riot come November 6.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 7:17 PM

October 4th?

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Oops, fail.
Sorry guys.

MontanaMmmm on October 22, 2012 at 7:18 PM

“Sorry if this has been posted already, but if not here you go.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838?utm_campaign=Outbrain+Story+Box&utm_source=traffic.outbrain.com&utm_medium=internal_outb#.UIXOToZ4K8A

MontanaMmmm on October 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM”

That story is 3 weeks old. Mitt is still losing badly among early voters.

And this place is hysterically funny today. Getting excited over a tie in Ohio, while the bad for Romney ABC/Wash Post tracking poll is ignored.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Nice stats list, thank you.

Good question is for the counties with large “shrinkage” for the Dems, to say 5-7% edge for now, how many of those Dems will actually vote? Edge in voter registration does not automatically project for the General.

Here in Las Vegas I see really stupid numbers. Even though US House and Senate races seem to be safely in GOP corner (as of last week and today) Romney seems to be :losing”. Can’t be and doesn’t compute. And I call BS on media.

All this with edge in voter registration for the Dems. At this point I would question ANY county across USA with single digit Dem voter registration edge as that where GOP can and should win next month.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:20 PM

For what it’s worth, Obama is falling fast on Intrade. Down to 59. Was 64 after the last debate.

I don’t see Intrade as predictive other than the current mood, still it’s amusing to watch.

** I don’t believe Americans are even allowed to bet on the POTUS race.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I have been told by someone who is in DC that its obvious even to Uncle Joe and I should book my tickets for Romneys’ inauguration.

TheGarbone on October 22, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Brit Hume said the +7% Democrats in the RCP average was um, “suspect”.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 7:22 PM

OH has a number of counties where voter rolls exceed actual residents. Have no idea why OH has not cleaned up the rolls since 2010.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Nope, not anymore…Ohio purged their rolls

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Guys I know this sound liberal and you know I’m not but why am I feeling eeyorish, I have been bullish since the first debate, I need some comforting please even though it sounds homo

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 7:23 PM

… Just sayin’.

The Left has never peacefully given up power…

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Please stop the “riots if Romney Wins” talk – you are doing a disservice to Hot Air.

It allows people to paint it as being populated by the far right, luntic fringe.

There will ne NO riots.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Pointing out the fact that there is talk of riots if Pantload looses on the Internet is not doing a disservice to Hot Air…

… so with respect, shove it up your a%%!

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I thought that Obama and Hillary were against non-unionized WalMart in 2008.

Now this.

The heir is a moron.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 7:28 PM

And this place is hysterically funny today. Getting excited over a tie in Ohio, while the bad for Romney ABC/Wash Post tracking poll is ignored.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:19 PM

You mean the one with the D+5 sample showing Obama leading by just 1%?

Did you mean the same tracker showing Romney leading by 6% in the Swing State tracker poll?

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Folks, on Nov 6th take precautions.

These people are nuts.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Pointing out the fact that there is talk of riots if Pantload looses on the Internet is not doing a disservice to Hot Air…

… so with respect, shove it up your a%%!

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 7:26 PM

And then there is this.

Son of State Senator Neal Kedzie Attacked

Picture included.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Are you done with your homework for school tomorrow? Then run up the stairs, your mom has dinner ready.

Obama is now outsourcing his troll to india. they don’t understand the vernacular.

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 7:31 PM

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Not sure why you aren’t concerned, but I am. Look at the story in my link above. A man was put in the hospital over a sign.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Fast forward to today. You have the combination of blacks, most of whom voted for Obama just because he is black(YES they did), and some of those voted for him because they figured he was going to “give them stuff.” Combine that with the anarchistic, entitlement-minded libs like those in the OWS movement, along with the race-baiting, socialism-minded press as their propagandists, and there could be some riots happening.

But as far as that goes, I hope we give them the reason to riot come November 6.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Only in some cities. Not in NY, not in LV and not in TX, places where cops actually are not afraid of doing their jobs. For example, I lived in NY during the blackout, all the looting took place in Manhattan’s Upper West Side and North of that in parts of Bronx. Everywhere else it was nice and peaceful with plenty of small business owners simply standing in front of (or roof top of) the building with guns in hand.

Will we see some riots? Maybe. In LA, SF, Chicago and maybe Phillie, if that happens. All cities that should learn that communists/anarchists are bad for populace and business. Once that happens and Congress does not send any money for “re-building” those areas I am sure even more people will learn that actions have consequences. Bush II told CA to go pound it when they refused to drill, but were demanding clean air and water and cheaper gas. I can sense Round II, actually hope for it, let them increase their taxes even more and ask unions to help out.

I’d PAY to watch rioting at Sean Penn’s house, for example, and the rest of LA’s West Side, should be interesting to see these pro OWS and communism “intellectuals” reason with the rioters. That’s comedy gold right there, IMO. Hell, I’ll even provide a map of “riot points” to the mob, starting with Eva Longoria and going down the list. All 1% by any count.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:32 PM

And this place is hysterically funny today. Getting excited over a tie in Ohio, while the bad for Romney ABC/Wash Post tracking poll is ignored.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:19 PM

You mean the one with the D+5 sample showing Obama leading by just 1%?

Did you mean the same tracker showing Romney leading by 6% in the Swing State tracker poll?

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Look at the thread on Debbie Washerwoman, she was miming the facial expression of gumbypoked while he was being painfully poked.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 7:34 PM

And this place is hysterically funny today. Getting excited over a tie in Ohio, while the bad for Romney ABC/Wash Post tracking poll is ignored.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:19 PM

D+5, winning indies by only 3 and still only down 1? Plus up 4 in their swing states?

I’ll take it.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 7:34 PM

These people are nuts.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:30 PM

You beat me to it, sir. I have 4 friends from Chicago who are coming to stay with me out here in the middle of nowhere Utah because they don’t to stay in the big city on election night.

The fear is real.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I have been told by someone who is in DC that its obvious even to Uncle Joe and I should book my tickets for Romneys’ inauguration.

TheGarbone on October 22, 2012 at 7:21 PM

FWIW, Hussein’s campaign did not book Hyde Park like they did last time, they booked a much smaller convention hall 3 minutes from his house by car. So, way fewer people can make it there save for car driving and buses, no foot traffic as last time for tens of thousands who attended. Could be the sign of things, at least I really, really hope so.

riddick on October 22, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

2008:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,351,2226
Democrats: 445525 (32.97%)
Republicans: 257936 (19.09%)
Difference: 13.88%

2012:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,047,928
Democrats: 305,670 (29.17%)
Republicans: 236,651 (22.58%)
Difference: 6.59%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:36 PM

And this place is hysterically funny today. Getting excited over a tie in Ohio, while the bad for Romney ABC/Wash Post tracking poll is ignored.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Speaking of hysterically funny, you have yet to weigh in on Gallup today…

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Gallup today:

R: 51
O: 45

R +6

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:38 PM

These people are nuts.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:30 PM

You beat me to it, sir. I have 4 friends from Chicago who are coming to stay with me out here in the middle of nowhere Utah because they don’t to stay in the big city on election night.

The fear is real.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Make sure they vote before they head your way :) …

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:39 PM

“D+5, winning indies by only 3 and still only down 1? Plus up 4 in their swing states?

I’ll take it.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 7:34 PM”

IMO, Romney will need to win Independents by at least 6 pts to have a chance.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Gallup today:

R: 51
O: 45

R +6

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Wha?? Gallup still not reasonable today, the spooked sample still not out yet??? Dang Gallup…They might be doing this to just spite gumbey :)…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:41 PM

“Gallup today:

R: 51
O: 45

R +6

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:38 PM”

Yep, the lead held much better than I expected. Still think it’s an outlier poll since it’s out of the ballpark compared to all other polls. But it would be a big feather in Gallup’s cap if they were the only outfit to get it right.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:41 PM

It is also on Breitbart. That’s not to say what will happen, but wise precautions are definitely in order.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 7:42 PM

IMO, Romney will need to win Independents by at least 6 pts to have a chance.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Your opinion doesn’t count, you have to be 18 to vote…. and romney is winning indies by 6…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:42 PM

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/260487583577030656

WaPo tracking poll that has Obama up 1, 49-48, has a D+5 sample. (Was D+7 in 08, even in 04/10). Hard to argue this is great for Obama.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 7:47 PM

OT: Tarrant County (Fort Worth, Arlington, TEXAS) broke the all-time record for early voting, today … Over 30K, no party breakdown to share, yet.

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 7:48 PM

IMO, Romney will need to win Independents by at least 6 pts to have a chance.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Good thing he’s winning them by over 8 nationally on average. Monmouth had him up 17 today.

That was my point – winning indies by 3 is way too low. Put that up to what all the other polls are seeing and this is another good poll for Romney.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

New thread:

ABC/WaPo poll: Romney pulls nearly even with Obama on handling foreign affairs, terrorism; Update: Obama’s giving up on NC, says Begala
Oct 22, 2012 7:47 PM by Allahpundit

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:52 PM

But it would be a big feather in Gallup’s cap if they were the only outfit to get it right.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Are you kidding getalife? Is it still not sinking in?

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Make sure they vote before they head your way :) …

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Always ;)

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:53 PM

IMO, Romney will need to win Independents by at least 6 pts to have a chance.

Current polling suggests that Romney will win Indies by 15-20, as polls in late Oct. usual do an excellent job of pegging an incumbent’s final number. For example, you can expect Obama’s final popular vote percentage will be around 47% as that’s where it’s been for weeks.

newtopia on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Are you kidding getalife? Is it still not sinking in?

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:52 PM

getalife would insist the adults were in charge.

Gumbo is just jackin’ wit’ cha.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Heard Frank Newport interviewed by Lou Dobbs tonite; he said there’s a NEW George Mason University poll out today that has Romney 52%-Obama 45%.

Been trying to find it online and nothing!!

Somebody? Anybody?

It was revealed in the context of the fact that Team Obama keeps calling Gallups 7 day rolling presidential tracker an “outlier.” Newport said, well there are now other polls showing the same results, the George Mason poll for one example…

FInd this poll, people!!

mountainaires on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:52 PM

getalife would insist the adults were in charge.

Gumbo is just jackin’ wit’ cha.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Lance, lov e ya like a brother. But unless you’re getting e-mail from the loon on the side that says otherwise, I be thinking you wrong.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Lance, lov e ya like a brother. But unless you’re getting e-mail from the loon on the side that says otherwise, I be thinking you wrong.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Come on. He finds the most outrageous crap and continually moves the goalposts. He’s hardly stupid.

He’s voting for Romney. Trust me.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:11 PM

When you can point to an occasion where rioting in America has EVER benefited the people who rioted AND the neighborhoods where the riots took place, maybe there would be some slender thread to hang this fear on.

PolAgnostic

Ummm…yeah, that makes, like, zero sense.

xblade on October 22, 2012 at 8:11 PM

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Come on. He finds the most outrageous crap and continually moves the goalposts. He’s hardly stupid.

He’s voting for Romney. Trust me.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:11 PM

You underestimate the crazed delusions of those on the left. I think he’s for real. Bet. I will buy you a steak dinner if he shows and changes his tune on election night.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

You underestimate the crazed delusions of those on the left. I think he’s for real. Bet. I will buy you a steak dinner if he shows and changes his tune on election night.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Nah. No bets. But he’ll be here.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:16 PM

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Nah. No bets. But he’ll be here.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:16 PM

And say he/she was only kidding? snort.

C-mon dude, bet me. Otherwise you’re not sure.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Let’s start with ALL of your original post.

I have this feeling we are being lied to…

… I think it is going to such a landslide for Team Romney, and the media and Left know it.

The only thing that they can do is publish that it is close…

… and when the actual results come out, claim some sort of outrage.

“There’s NO WAY he could have won that big…! Must be voter fraud…!”
There is already talk of riots if Team Romney wins…

… Just sayin’.

The Left has never peacefully given up power…

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

.
So you started with “we are being lied to” and went downhill from there.

You’ve selectively edited my post

Please stop the “riots if Romney Wins” talk – you are doing a disservice to Hot Air.

It allows people to paint it as being populated by the far right, luntic fringe.

There will ne NO riots.

Voicing this canard undermines the foundations of our Republic. It is not who we are or have ever been.

When you can point to an occasion where rioting in America has EVER benefited the people who rioted AND the neighborhoods where the riots took place, maybe there would be some slender thread to hang this fear on.

Until then, behave like adults and stop inflaming people’s fears.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 6:05 PM

.
Which let you selectively respond without engaging in having to cite any basis for the fears you are choosing to feed.

Pointing out the fact that there is talk of riots if Pantload looses on the Internet is not doing a disservice to Hot Air…

… so with respect, shove it up your a%%!

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 7:26 PM

.
There is talk of all sorts of alarming things on the internet – but talk does not equal fact or merit.

If you have decided you wish to descend to the level of the trolls we have on here who spout all of their conspiracy theories and alarming predictions, be my guest.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 8:20 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012

…need lotion?

KOOLAID2 on October 22, 2012 at 8:21 PM

And say he/she was only kidding? snort.

C-mon dude, bet me. Otherwise you’re not sure.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Not 100% no.

97% sure.

And it was a D + a jillion poll.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Yep, the lead held much better than I expected. Still think it’s an outlier poll since it’s out of the ballpark compared to all other polls. But it would be a big feather in Gallup’s cap if they were the only outfit to get it right.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Yeah, Gallup, what do they know?
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/preferences.php

Just promise, promise you’ll spend election night with us here.

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 8:24 PM

mountainaires on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Did Newport receive the results today? Or is it public knowledge? Was it done in conjunction w/Gallup?

Since Newport is with Gallup I’d presume he has early access.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 8:25 PM

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