Suffolk poll of Ohio: Romney 47, Obama 47

posted at 4:44 pm on October 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Of the four most recent Ohio polls, two have the race tied, one has O up by a single point, and the other you already know about. An interesting tidbit from the new Suffolk poll: They’ve got Romney up three points among people who haven’t voted yet and Obama up 13 points among those who already have. That’s not surprising given how hard O’s been pushing people to vote early, replete with the specter of overflowing toilets on election day. He wants those ballots locked in just in case the country receives some new bit of terrible news down the stretch (e.g., another miserable jobs report on November 2) and/or he has another dial-tone debate tonight. If Obama had held his own in Denver, I bet a chunk of his early votes right now would be coming from persuadables who had concluded that the race was over and they might as well send their vote for O in ASAP. As it is, those persuadables are most likely now holding off in order to take a longer look at Romney, which means virtually all of O’s early votes are coming from people he would have had on election day anyway. Essentially, he’s helping himself now on turnout by prodding lazy voters to act early, but he’s not taking votes away from Mitt.

For the time being, I’m really only watching four polls: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The national polls like Gallup and Reuters are useful for trendspotting, to capture broad momentum shifts in the electorate or the lack thereof (for example, Obama’s gotten no bounce from his alleged second debate “win”), and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are worth peeking in on since they’re still in play, but there’s a good chance that those four states I named will determine the election. My working assumption is that Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will stay close but all ultimately tilt red, which, if true, would give Romney another 51 electoral votes on top of the 206 that are already leaning his way in RCP. Speaking of which, more good news from CO via Rasmussen:

Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided…

Romney now leads among all Colorado voters when they are asked whom they trust more in two key policy areas. He’s ahead 51% to 44% when it comes to the economy and 51% to 45% in the area of national security.

Obama led in Colorado by a point as recently as two weeks ago. Once Romney’s at 257 EVs, he wins the election by taking either (a) Ohio or (b) the other three states I named, all of which are currently led — narrowly — by Obama in RCP’s poll average. Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio? Ohio is where he’s spending time and money right now; I can see all of that attention paying off in a win there while the other three states, comparatively neglected, fall to O. If those states end up turning red, though, then it almost certainly means that there’s a national surge breaking for Romney among late-deciders which means all sorts of other states would be turning red too — including Ohio. Essentially, I can see him winning narrowly with Ohio or winning big as voters nationally turn on The One, but it’s hard to see a narrow win without Ohio. Unless something magical starts to happen…

Via Newsbusters, here’s Chuck Todd sounding bullish on Romney, and not for the first time today either.


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This is actually encouraging, Suffolk has been leaning GOP this whole election cycle. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to keep Obama afloat. If that happens I’ll certainly take it.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Suffolk University in Boston leans left? That is a very weak straw you are grasping at.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Ok now that was actually pretty good.

I’m voting snarker. Welcome to the club.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

You gonna say hey, or are you still pissed at me?

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

TWP

1) It was 6, then 7, now is 6 again…same pluses for Romney.

2) He is weak and it’s no mantra.

He is strong for his muzzie brothers, always was, will be…wake up America!

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Unless something magical starts to happen

wouldn’t that be sweet!!!!!!!

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

You aren’t even a fun troll – you’re just not bright.

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Is that you Pragmatic? Or Gumby?

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

angryed?

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Maybe Gunlock Bill attempting parody?

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

You aren’t even a fun troll

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Oh, you’re wrong on that one.

She’s gonna be fun!

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

ukinaka, that was hilarious

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I wouldn’t be surprised if he has the college transcripts.

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Sacrifice VA, appeal to anti-war independents in Ohio, win the electoral college barely. It could happen.

And no, I’m not reversing anything, I still think Obama will lose. But if he has a chance, this is it.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

The only anti-war independents you’ll find in Ohio are in the People’s Republic of Cleveland (aka Kucinichland). Ohio is a very pro-military state.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Sorry, I passed along some wrong info. It’s 9 swing states defined as:

CO, FLA, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI

Romney gets 51-47 in those states.

Averaging all 6 national polls, excluding WaPo – Obama averages 46. WaPo is a clear outlier, but with a D+5, good news all the same

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Anyone see that NH poll? O up 9? Yeah right.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

That might play in a D+90 sample.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

D+4 by registration, but D+10 by party self-identification. That’s among the oldest tactics out of the PPP playbook. Use one sample for show, but proudly skew the other to favor Dems below those numbers.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Please show the folks where Romney said he was going to put women in binders?

We will wait, Gumby, Pragmatic or Stevenangel.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Like I said, I have some political connections high up in Ohio that told me Mitt lost his chance here with the “Binders” comment and failing to fix lybia.

He’s ahead in the “polls” right now due to a lot of outliers that remain with rolling averages and people not wanting to admit that they’re for Obama for fear of reprival from Romney’s ground organization. It will wear off in the next 2 weeks.

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Huh? Uh… was going to ask a question, but nevermind.

kim roy on October 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Wow. Even Allahpundit sounds optimistic!

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I think Ohio is the big talking point state. “No President has ever been elected without Ohio!” they keep spouting. As long as they have that and overweighted polls, than whatever the national numbers the media can keep spinning and spinning that the race is still close.

PastorJon on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

..a very wise padre, indeed! Excellent point. The “road to POTUS-hood goes through OIHO” is getting almost too tedious. Personally, I would love to see a McGovernesque or Humphreyesque loss by The Crapsack POTUS™ with him winning ONLY OIHO by a razor thin margin.

The War Planner on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Need some details…

Where? Blue area? red area?
Time? and did you check the notice that gave the number of voters?
number of poll workers?
Number of voters?
attitude of voters and workers.

Me:
9:10 am
blue area of Dallas
>45 voters by 9:00am
well staffed with happy workers
determined voters that came from redder areas to avoid lines there
Two dem campaigners
no broken glass, or coals, to walk over.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Why is OH being so stubborn in support for Obama? OH should NOT be TIED. Romney should be leading by 6-8. Someone from OH, have any EXPLANATIONS? Or is OH trending socialist?

As for toilets, Hold on Michelle dear, We the People are going to flush you and your Socialist husband down on 11/6.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Because no God fearing, Woody Hayes loving Buckeye would ever vote for someone that comes from that state up north.

RickB on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

C’mon – that’s a parody of a leftist – there is no way this is real. “bow to our domestic leader”? That’s good stuff.

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Like I said, I have some political connections high up in Ohio that told me Mitt lost his chance here with the “Binders” comment and failing to fix lybia.

LOL!

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

BTW, are you a public school teacher university professor?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Why is OH being so stubborn in support for Obama? OH should NOT be TIED. Romney should be leading by 6-8. Someone from OH, have any EXPLANATIONS? Or is OH trending socialist?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Chill OUT
– Ed’s post from this morning …

I’m inclined to think that Ohio is going to be close all the way to the election. But I’m also inclined to think that the electorate will be more than 26% Republican. That’s the sample in this poll, which has a laughable D/R/I of 35/26/34. In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28. We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.

With CBS’s azz on the scale they can only give the SCOMAF a five point margin. Take the poll’s D/R/I of 35/26/34 and reset it to a more realistic (but for my money too optimistic for the SCOAMF) set of D/R/I of 35/35/30 and voila!

Romney wins the “too close to call” state by 5% on Nov. 6th and election night ends just as soon as te California polls close with Romeny projected as the winner with 300+ EV’s and growing.

Overweighted for the SCOAMF polls – trolling on a wholesale basis

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

We have Voter ID in Ohio. A little tougher for the “dead and buried” to cast a ballot. Not impossible, but tougher.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

We do have that but what concerns me more is the early voting and absentee voting. We received in the mail absentee requests for all four of age residents PLUS the former two owners of our home now gone 3 years!!! I called the SOS and she said if someone tried to use their ballot request it would have been caught somewhere down the line. Sorry, but I just don’t have a lot of faith in that. Also, all you have to provide to get an absentee is the last four digits or SS or DL#. Seems pretty easy to manipulate.

1nolibgal on October 22, 2012 at 5:21 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

A really big LG microwave? Last I heard Secret Service agents were headed his way… with some Quickie Mart burritos.

M240H on October 22, 2012 at 5:21 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

It’s raining men?

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 5:21 PM

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

So, you think isolationist is the way to go, eh? It worked out so well for the US in the 1930s.

BTW, not even the Paulistinians claim to be isolationists.

You might wish to allow this to absorb:

“You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”

- Leon Trotsky

The United States can’t just decide that it has had enough with the fight against Islamofascism because the Islamofascists are part of the equation. They haven’t decided that they have had enough with their desire to destroy the West.

In a football game, if you leave the field before time has run out, you don’t win or tie, you lose.

The US wasn’t engaged in a bunch of wars in the 1990s; yet, what happened?

The US can’t isolate itself. It must lead. The world is a safer place when the US leads with peace through strength. It is when the US acts like a bunch of muffins or withdraws within itself that the worst comes to pass.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:21 PM

You’ve been President for FOUR YEARS……and you’re at 47%?

……..and that’s an NBC Poll?

YIKES.

Keep doing what you’re doing Mitt.

PappyD61 on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Nobody is this stupid, (Actually the Obamaphone woman is…but still, this type of Weapons Grade stupid is still rare..)

I think this is your attempt at a parody of GumbyPokeme.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

BTW, King Obama is the only one who bows to foreign leaders. See Drudge for further explanation.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

O_O..Wow.just.Wow..

P..Paging Steveangel!!..

Dire Straits on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

The only anti-war independents you’ll find in Ohio are in the People’s Republic of Cleveland (aka Kucinichland). Ohio is a very pro-military state.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Now, not to make a leftie’s argument for him, but it is possible to be anti-war and pro-military. I know that most leftists, when they make that claim, are full of it and hate the military as much as they protest war, but that is not true of all. And there are conservatives who are against Iraq and Afghanistan.

The problem is that lefties often have a hard time distinguishing between the need for a strong military and being “pro war”.

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:23 PM

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Suffolk University in Boston leans left? That is a very weak straw you are grasping at.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Yeah, MA is a Red State now, because they elected Scott Brown.

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Allah, do you have the D/R/I on Suffolk’s Ohio poll?

IMHO, Romney needs to go all-out to win Ohio. If FL, VA, and CO turn red (assuming NC stays red), Romney would be at 257 EVs, needing 13 more. Ohio would put him over the top, and Romney could probably pick up some crucial coal-miners’ votes in southeastern OH by stressing his own support for the use of coal to generate electricity, and how much Obama has hurt the industry, as well as mentioning his approval of natural-gas fracking, which would also help eastern Ohio.

If Romney loses Ohio, what else is left? Wisconsin (10), Nevada(6), Iowa(6), and New Hampshire(4). Romney is running about even in Iowa, but behind in NV and NH, but Wisconsin could be an interesting fall-back option if Obama somehow takes Ohio–Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin, and Romney-Ryan could use some of the “ground game” that Scott Walker built to win the recall election last June, perhaps campaigning with Walker himself. Media-wise, Wisconsin is a cheaper state to advertise than MI or PA.

Romney should go all-out for Ohio, with the alternative of winning WI and IA for 16 EVs, which would give Romney a total of 273 EVs.

Steve Z on October 22, 2012 at 5:23 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Trump sadly is our version of Gloria Allred. I fully expect it to be another revelation about Obama’s “birth certificate” or some other distraction.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:24 PM

BTW, King Obama is the only one who bows to foreign leaders. See Drudge for further explanation.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I think you are being taken by a pretty good parody. I honestly cannot believe that those comments are real.

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:24 PM

This is two cornfields in Iowa now?

Great artists

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 5:25 PM

BTW, King Obama is the only one who bows to foreign leaders. See Drudge for further explanation.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Bowing to the Mexican president isn’t even up there.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio? Ohio is where he’s spending time and money right now; I can see all of that attention paying off in a win there while the other three states, comparatively neglected, fall to O. If those states end up turning red, though, then it almost certainly means that there’s a national surge breaking for Romney among late-deciders which means all sorts of other states would be turning red too — including Ohio.

That’s what I’ve been thinking too. There are only three possible scenarios: Either a narrow Obama EV win, a narrow Romney EV win, or a Romney landslide.

I’m going to have a knot in my stomach on Nov 6.

WhatSlushfund on October 22, 2012 at 5:26 PM

About an hour left.

I wonder what it is?

I feel like a kid at Christmas not knowing if he’s gonna get coal or presents.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:26 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Like someone up thread said, he’s just messin’ with Zero and Allred. Lord knows there is a heaping pile of shit someone COULD have on Zero, so it makes their knees tremble a bit. As Barry and Allred plan their little October surprise slander on Romney, Trump wants them asking themselves: “Do you feel lucky, punk? Well do ya?”

Rational Thought on October 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Trump is a blow hard. He has nothing(that matters)and even if he did, it’ll have no impact because the MSM will not cover it.

Seriously, if he came up with O’s college applications, showing, he claimed to be foreign student,….with pictures of him with the application,….and finger prints at the bottom the page.

The MSM reaction? Pffft.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I know they are called Paleo-cons, (ie Pat Buchannan). But generally the military vote goes 70-30 for the Republican as it did in 2004 and 2008. Possibly even more so than the 71-25 McCain got in 2008.

Hence why Dems are making sure the Military vote is suppressed. (Late mailing ballots)

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I think you are being taken by a pretty good parody. I honestly cannot believe that those comments are real.

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Yet everyone here takes Gumbo so seriously they need to wreck a thread by responding.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:28 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I asked a similar question today on an earlier thread and the best answer I heard, although I don’t think it’s “nuclear” by any stretch, is that Trump has gotten hold of Obama’s college/financial applications where he claims he’s a “foreign national.”

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 5:28 PM

1nolibgal on October 22, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Secretary of State in OH is a Republican now isn’t it? Better than having a Soros puppet.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Dishes are done……. Dude……….

Al Hall on October 22, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I wouldnt be too optimistic…

List of recent polls shows a tie nationwide with Romney losing Ohio :/

Drunk Report on October 22, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Romney doesn’t need New Hampshire because he doesn’t need 270 to win. With a majority of the House state delegations being (and will continue to be) Republican, he can win the tie breaker at 269 electoral votes. (But Maine’s at large Republican leaning district could put Romney over 269…it’s not exactly heavily polled.)

This means in Allah’s two scenarios, he needs (1) Ohio or (2) Nevada + Iowa (and not also NH).

But there is another scenario: (3) Romney wins Wisconsin and ANY of the other states listed. He’s running about as well there as he is in Nevada, so I consider this more likely than the (2) Iowa + Nevada scenario. Also, Walker and the Repubs in Wisconsin got their GOTV running very well with the recall elections, so that is the one place almost guaranteed to have better results than the final polls.

Nessuno on October 22, 2012 at 5:31 PM

TWP

1) It was 6, then 7, now is 6 again…same pluses for Romney.

2) He is weak and it’s no mantra.

He is strong for his muzzie brothers, always was, will be…wake up America!

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

..dear bro Schade, it was:

10/01-07/2012 48 48 +0 even
10/02-08/2012 47 49 +2 R
10/03-09/2012 48 48 +0 even
10/04-10/2012 47 48 +1 R
10/05-11/2012 47 49 +2 R
10/06-12/2012 47 49 +2 R
10/07-13/2012 47 49 +2 R
10/08-14/2012 47 49 +2 R
10/09-15/2012 46 50 +4 R
10/10-16/2012 45 51 +6 R
10/11-17/2012 45 52 +7 R
10/12-18/2012 45 51 +6 R
10/13-19/2012 45 51 +6 R
10/14-20/2012 45 52 +7 R
10/15-21/2012 45 51 +6 R

..the string goes back a lot further (farther) than I realized. Two things to note are Romney’s surge and Obama’s decline. The biggest takeaway from these polls if — as has been mentioned — Obama’s inability to get above 47% in any poll with a sample close to reality — i.e., D+7 or less!

The War Planner on October 22, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Need some details…

Where? Blue area? red area?
Time? and did you check the notice that gave the number of voters?
number of poll workers?
Number of voters?
attitude of voters and workers.

Me:
9:10 am
blue area of Dallas
>45 voters by 9:00am
well staffed with happy workers
determined voters that came from redder areas to avoid lines there
Two dem campaigners
no broken glass, or coals, to walk over.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Okay:

Highland Mall (North to NE Austin–not just blue, Bahahahahuhuhuluuuuuuueee), noonish.
Not very busy, no line, but this is the big early vote center with lots of machines. Moderately full, but again, no line to speak of
Well staffed
Voters were a mix, likely Deomocrats (this IS Austin)

No campaigners
No river of sewage to swim

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 5:33 PM

I wouldnt be too optimistic…

List of recent polls shows a tie nationwide with Romney losing Ohio :/

Drunk Report on October 22, 2012 at 5:31 PM

HUH?

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 5:33 PM

WaPo has Romney winning just 3% of indies – haha.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Like I said, I have some political connections high up in Ohio that told me Mitt lost his chance here with the “Binders” comment and failing to fix lybia.

He’s ahead in the “polls” right now due to a lot of outliers that remain with rolling averages and people not wanting to admit that they’re for Obama for fear of reprival from Romney’s ground organization. It will wear off in the next 2 weeks.

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Hey, Gumbey, you forgot that you were logged in with another moniker…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Nessuno on October 22, 2012 at 5:31 PM

At 269, we get VP Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Sean Davis ‏@seanmdav

@aceofspadeshq @numbersmuncher Re: your post(s) from today: Since 1980, GOP candidate has always performed better in Ohio than nationally.
Retweeted by NumbersMuncher

INC on October 22, 2012 at 5:40 PM

I live in Akron, which has long been a Demorat stronghold. All that I can say is that there are very few Obama yard signs and very few Obama bumperstickers compared to 2008. I am actually seeing quite a few Romney signs — far more than the McCain signs I saw in ’08. I see relatively few Romney bumperstickers, but considering that it’s likely to get your car keyed around here, I am not surprised by that.

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 5:42 PM

At 269, we get VP Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:38 PM

No, we get serious rioting.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Allah, do you have the D/R/I on Suffolk’s Ohio poll?

Steve Z on October 22, 2012 at 5:23 PM

It was D +4, not unreasonable. That’s why GOTV will be important.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:42 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I think it’s the Libya gun running stuff: F&F 2.0, but if it’s this…that there’s funny!

It’s raining men?

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Chewy the Lab on October 22, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Oh, dear, yet another brainwashed, idiotic troll…this one is a cross between stevenangel and gumbey :) …it can’t get any worse than this…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 5:44 PM

If Romney does not win Ohio but wins CO, FL, VA, IN, NC, he only then needs to win Iowa and Nevade, NOT New Hampshire.

I believe if it is a tie at 269-269, the statehouses decide.

Chime in on how the tie is resolved.

KirknBurker on October 22, 2012 at 5:44 PM

My overseas friends think it is great to get everything for free… isn’t life wonderful?

Al Hall on October 22, 2012 at 5:44 PM

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Riiiiight. You’re a Republican. And I’m an “undecided voter,” just like I tell the nice polling lady who calls here every day. BTW: Maybe the spelling fairy will come and visit you tonight if you leave a few of your misspelled words under your pillow.

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 5:45 PM

That is some weapons grade stupidity. Criminy.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Axelfraud is out of money and is obviously down to his “will work for food” trolls.

Strike Hornet on October 22, 2012 at 5:46 PM

At 269, we get VP Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:38 PM

No, we get serious rioting.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Which is why we can’t afford for it to be close!

Chewy the Lab on October 22, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Even though many of us have fled and come over here to Norkyland, Southwestern Ohio is still very conservative. I’m fairly confident that Romney will win by huge margins in Hamilton, Butler, Warren and Clermont counties. The mistake by the lake will not decide who takes Ohio.

Norky on October 22, 2012 at 5:48 PM

i just love these polls where they are dead even at 47%….

lol can’t talk about that anymore tonight…cuz look at the polls obama…

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 5:48 PM

My friend’s cousin works in the White House and she told me President is already packing his stuff….he thinks he’s going to lose. True story.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Which is why we can’t afford for it to be close!

Chewy the Lab on October 22, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Boy howdy.

That way we can consign and confine the rioting to da ‘hoods.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Once Romney’s at 257 EVs, he wins the election by taking either (a) Ohio or (b) the other three states I named, all of which are currently led — narrowly — by Obama in RCP’s poll average. Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio?

.
Math, in this case, is EASY.

Go to RCP’s Electoral College Map and Create Your Own Map …

Put Florida, Virginia and Colorado in Romney’s total = 257 EV

If the polls in Ohio were not being ridiculously skewed – Romney would be at 52% and the MSM would have two big problems

1) Ohio puts Romney at 275 EV and barring him committing unnatural acts with a sheep on live TV … the MSM has no story to tell for the next two weeks. NOTHING. and NOTHING = BORING = NO RATINGS for the first week of the November Sweeps Ratings.

2) If you know (as the SCOAMF’s campaign and the MSM already do know) there is little likelihood of the SCOAMF’s base turning out in sufficient numbers to get him re-elected …

… what would the Democratic turnout be like if they admitted the Presidential campaign is effectively OVER?

If they admit how bad it is now – they downticket candidates will get slaughetered on November 6th so badly it would make 2010 look like a Democratic win.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

My friend’s cousin works in the White House and she told me President is already packing his stuff….he thinks he’s going to lose. True story.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Your friend’s cousin better be right. Or I’ll be back on the streets.

And I’ll be mad.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

I asked a similar question today on an earlier thread and the best answer I heard, although I don’t think it’s “nuclear” by any stretch, is that Trump has gotten hold of Obama’s college/financial applications where he claims he’s a “foreign national.”

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 5:28 PM

My guess? something with his drug use. Maybe someone who saw Obama doing cocaine long after he said he stopped. (how insane is it that we elected a man who admitted to doing pot and cocaine)

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

No, we get serious rioting.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Both.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

At 269, we get VP Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Pardon, my ignorance. But can they make it VP Obama, since he is on the ticket? Or does it have to be from the VP spot?

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

That is some weapons grade stupidity. Criminy.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Axelfraud is out of money and is obviously down to his “will work for food” trolls.

Strike Hornet on October 22, 2012 at 5:46 PM

More like ‘will work for pot’ trolls, how do you otherwise explain a troll figure like dumbeyandpokey? :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

My friend’s cousin works in the White House and she told me President is already packing his stuff….he thinks he’s going to lose. True story.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Somebody better frisk those people before they leave….

cynccook on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Lanceman my connections are just as reliable as akaniku’s Ohio connections! LOL!

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

I have this feeling we are being lied to…

… I think it is going to such a landslide for Team Romney, and the media and Left know it.

The only thing that they can do is publish that it is close…

… and when the actual results come out, claim some sort of outrage.

“There’s NO WAY he could have won that big…! Must be voter fraud…!”

There is already talk of riots if Team Romney wins…

… Just sayin’.

The Left has never peacefully given up power…

Seven Percent Solution on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Not to be the bearer of bad news, but… to be the bearer of bad news, the RCP average in New Hampshire has been moved significantly by its latest poll, which shows a boom there for Obama.

That puts the no toss-ups map at Obama 281, Romney 257. To win, Romney needs an additional 13 electoral votes, which means that Wisconsin would no longer be enough to change the outcome. It also means a combined pick-up of Iowa and Nevada would not be enough. Barring a knockout punch at tonight’s debate, Romney’s fate hinges entirely on Ohio.

Romney is anywhere from at best tied, to at worst, losing by 5. If nothing changes, that means that Romney probably wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college. We could also use another poll of Virginia since that’s tied in the RCP average. If that falls away from Romney, he’s screwed.

Stoic Patriot on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Let’s face it, Ohio is the state to win. Ohio’s first Presidental election was in 1804 shortly after it became a state and it helped elect Thomas Jefferson. In it’s history Ohio has only been on the losing side 9 times and the winning side 43 times. Ohio hasn’t been on the losing side of a Presidental election since 1960 when it went for Nixon and Kennedy won. Before that it was 1944 when Ohio went with Dewey and Roosevelt won. But Ohio is a swing state, in the last 12 Presidental elections Ohio has gone Republican 7 times and Democrat 5 times and was on the winning side every time. This year will be no different.

Dollayo on October 22, 2012 at 5:53 PM

I believe if it is a tie at 269-269, the statehouses decide.

Chime in on how the tie is resolved.

KirknBurker on October 22, 2012 at 5:44 PM

The House votes for the POTUS.

The Senate votes for the VPOTUS.

Hence, we would get President Romney and Vice-President Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Sorry, I should’a fixed it first:

My friend’s cousin works in the White House and she told me President is already packing his stuff bling….he thinks he’s going to lose. True story.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

There. That’s more like it.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Need some details…

Where? Blue area? red area?
Time? and did you check the notice that gave the number of voters?
number of poll workers?
Number of voters?
attitude of voters and workers.

Me:
9:10 am
blue area of Dallas
>45 voters by 9:00am
well staffed with happy workers
determined voters that came from redder areas to avoid lines there
Two dem campaigners
no broken glass, or coals, to walk over.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Okay:

Highland Mall (North to NE Austin–not just blue, Bahahahahuhuhuluuuuuuueee), noonish.
Not very busy, no line, but this is the big early vote center with lots of machines. Moderately full, but again, no line to speak of
Well staffed
Voters were a mix, likely Deomocrats (this IS Austin)

No campaigners
No river of sewage to swim

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 5:33 PM

I tried to vote twice today at the Randall’s in NW Austin– at 12:30, lines were way too long. Went back at 3:30, lines even longer out the freaking door.

I’ve been early voting there for years, often on the first day, and never seen crowds like this.

It’s not helped that the median age of the election volunteers is about 87, they move slow as molasses, but I was a bit surprised by the turnout.

thurman on October 22, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Hence, we would get President Romney and Vice-President Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:53 PM

I doubt it.

Even the Senate knows Biden is an idiot. There’d be another choice. But since it ain’t happening…

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

My friend’s cousin works in the White House and she told me President is already packing his stuff….he thinks he’s going to lose. True story.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

I can confirm as my cousin made the packing cartons sent the White House and his friend of another friend has already been hired to drive the moving van all the way across the Pacific to Hawaii.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Pardon, my ignorance. But can they make it VP Obama, since he is on the ticket? Or does it have to be from the VP spot?

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

The Senate has to make its selection from the top two electoral vote-getters on the list of VP candidates.

HTL on October 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

“It is all up to GOTV in Ohio.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM”

Yep, which is why Romney will lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

I remember the Reagan thing. This smells exactly like it.. This will be a Romney landslide..

Al Hall on October 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

That’s the end of this thread.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:57 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.
I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.
akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Please show the folks where Romney said he was going to put women in binders?
We will wait, Gumby, Pragmatic or Stevenangel.
JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I believe the commenter was doing a sarc parody there.

whatcat on October 22, 2012 at 5:57 PM

The House votes for the POTUS.

The Senate votes for the VPOTUS.

Hence, we would get President Romney and Vice-President Biden.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:53 PM

.
Actually, the newly elected House Representatives and Senators are the ones who will vote.

If we win the Senate, you get VP Ryan.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I don’t know why people are stressing out so much over the electoral votes. If Romney wins the popular vote by 2% or more, as most polls indicate, it’s practically impossible that he would lose in electoral votes.

Or is it? Maybe some history buff can make some comments about this…

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I might point out to you all that ‘akaniku’ means (in a loose sense) ‘red meat’ in Japanese.

Where that puts the guy in the ‘troll – parody’ continuum remains to be seen.

Scott H on October 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I can confirm as my cousin made the packing cartons sent the White House and his friend of another friend has already been hired to drive the moving van all the way across the Pacific to Hawaii.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Word is that the Obama’s are trying to figure out how to break the news to Uncle Joey, er, I mean Vice President Biden. They don’t want to break his heart.

terryannonline on October 22, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Yep, which is why Romney will lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Obligatory:

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.
The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Stoic Patriot on October 22, 2012 at 5:52 PM

That UNH/WMUR “poll” of New Hampshire is a joke.

2 weeks ago, they had O’bamna up here by 15.

1 week later, they only had him up by 6.

Ignore it.

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

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