Suffolk poll of Ohio: Romney 47, Obama 47

posted at 4:44 pm on October 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Of the four most recent Ohio polls, two have the race tied, one has O up by a single point, and the other you already know about. An interesting tidbit from the new Suffolk poll: They’ve got Romney up three points among people who haven’t voted yet and Obama up 13 points among those who already have. That’s not surprising given how hard O’s been pushing people to vote early, replete with the specter of overflowing toilets on election day. He wants those ballots locked in just in case the country receives some new bit of terrible news down the stretch (e.g., another miserable jobs report on November 2) and/or he has another dial-tone debate tonight. If Obama had held his own in Denver, I bet a chunk of his early votes right now would be coming from persuadables who had concluded that the race was over and they might as well send their vote for O in ASAP. As it is, those persuadables are most likely now holding off in order to take a longer look at Romney, which means virtually all of O’s early votes are coming from people he would have had on election day anyway. Essentially, he’s helping himself now on turnout by prodding lazy voters to act early, but he’s not taking votes away from Mitt.

For the time being, I’m really only watching four polls: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The national polls like Gallup and Reuters are useful for trendspotting, to capture broad momentum shifts in the electorate or the lack thereof (for example, Obama’s gotten no bounce from his alleged second debate “win”), and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are worth peeking in on since they’re still in play, but there’s a good chance that those four states I named will determine the election. My working assumption is that Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will stay close but all ultimately tilt red, which, if true, would give Romney another 51 electoral votes on top of the 206 that are already leaning his way in RCP. Speaking of which, more good news from CO via Rasmussen:

Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided…

Romney now leads among all Colorado voters when they are asked whom they trust more in two key policy areas. He’s ahead 51% to 44% when it comes to the economy and 51% to 45% in the area of national security.

Obama led in Colorado by a point as recently as two weeks ago. Once Romney’s at 257 EVs, he wins the election by taking either (a) Ohio or (b) the other three states I named, all of which are currently led — narrowly — by Obama in RCP’s poll average. Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio? Ohio is where he’s spending time and money right now; I can see all of that attention paying off in a win there while the other three states, comparatively neglected, fall to O. If those states end up turning red, though, then it almost certainly means that there’s a national surge breaking for Romney among late-deciders which means all sorts of other states would be turning red too — including Ohio. Essentially, I can see him winning narrowly with Ohio or winning big as voters nationally turn on The One, but it’s hard to see a narrow win without Ohio. Unless something magical starts to happen…

Via Newsbusters, here’s Chuck Todd sounding bullish on Romney, and not for the first time today either.


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MOMENTUM!!

/BISHOP!!!

Khun Joe on October 22, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Oh my!

But this poll is 100 years old.

My people on the ground assure me obama will win by 3%

Early voting favors obama by 63%.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Just voted for Romney in Colorado.

COgirl on October 22, 2012 at 4:47 PM

This Ohio early voter did NOT vote for Obama.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 4:49 PM

virtually all of O’s early votes are coming from people he would have had on election day anyway.

Kinda like what I said last night.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:49 PM

He wants those ballots locked in just in case the country receives some new bit of terrible news down the stretch

I tend to think they want them counted so they know how many fraudulent votes they have to produce.

NickelAndDime on October 22, 2012 at 4:50 PM

The numbers look terrible for O all around. An incumbent that can’t get over 47% two weeks from the election??

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Bring some friends and neighbors to the polls, COgirl!

Jackalope on October 22, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio?

No. If Romney wins any of those three states, he’s winning O-I-H-O.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Forget it, everybody. Didn’t you see the polling. NH is lost. Obama is up by 9 with an effective D+10 sample a perfectly reasonable sample of the electorate. If NH goes for Obama, surely OIHO, IWOA, and IADHO will do the same.
/

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Tonight

Only a man with a leftover undergraduate ambivalence about Western civilization would have dealt with the Benghazi catastrophe in such a fashion in the first place. Barack Obama responded to the terrorism like a Columbia junior stoned on a reefer, particularly one from his era. He took another toke and moved on. And then when he was told he couldn’t do that, he got angry at the people telling him.

How that will play out in Monday night’s debate, I have no idea (beyond my wish that he would resign and spare us any more of this). But Mitt Romney would be well advised to remember his opponent is a man who has not fully grown up. He doesn’t know how to take responsibility in an adult manner, so the chances that he will lash out are strong. He also may be aided and abetted in that enterprise by Bob Schieffer who, of the three debate moderators, is the longest card-carrying member of legacy media. In fact, he is one of the most long-standing around. You can count on his bias to shine through, overtly and covertly, because this could be the last hurrah of that clique (and they know it). Given public response to the debates and the moderators, it’s hard to believe we will see the same dumb show in 2016. If we do, shame on us.

And one final thing I would like to hear in the foreign policy debate but will not: It’s time to name our enemy. And by that I don’t mean al-Qaeda. That’s just the joker in the pack, the villain with a thousand faces, able to reappear in any mask imaginable and in any location. No, the real enemy is the pack of cards itself — Islamism. But Obama’s administration never mentions it. They don’t even use the word “terrorism.” It would be really interesting if Mitt Romney asked Obama what motivated Major Hasan’s mass murder of his fellow soldiers at Ft. Hood. I bet the answer wouldn’t even be worthy of an undergraduate.

Note to Romney – DO NOT ask Obama any questions. Just state the truth, the facts, and put him on the defensive.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM

This Ohio early voter did NOT vote for Obama.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 4:49 PM

You voted for Gary Johnson?!

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Be prepared to be wow’ed by Barry’s preformance in the debate that allows him to win back Ohio. /s

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Leave the Gumbosity to the professionals.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Obama flied to LA and Las Vegas on Wednesday. He must be out of dough.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:53 PM

What a contrast it is between the front page of this blog and DKos.

Here: 5 blog topics about the latest polls.
There: Nothing but “Romney sucks” topics.

Gee, I wonder which side is more hopeful/optimistic?

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 4:53 PM

The thing I am struggling with is whether the media is just playing this Ohio narrative to keep the election story alive.

My guess is that Ohio is close, but Romney is slightly ahead. The media polls just dont make any sense…unless they have an agenda…which I believe they do.

joepub on October 22, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Like I said, I have some political connections high up in Ohio that told me Mitt lost his chance here with the “Binders” comment and failing to fix lybia.

He’s ahead in the “polls” right now due to a lot of outliers that remain with rolling averages and people not wanting to admit that they’re for Obama for fear of reprival from Romney’s ground organization. It will wear off in the next 2 weeks.

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Obama flied to LA and Las Vegas on Wednesday. He must be out of dough.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:53 PM

And his arms must be tired.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Interesting how MSNBC has that graphic laid out, with October first then September…

If you’re simply looking at numbers, it looks like Obama’s ahead – if you don’t pay attention to the graphic.

Picking nits I’m sure…

catmman on October 22, 2012 at 4:55 PM

My working assumption is that Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will stay close but all ultimately tilt red

The war on coal will ‘kill’ Obama in VA.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Wisconsin???? I think that’s a pivotal state and a just in case state too. If Romney loses Ohio, he can still win if he gets IA and WI. Why not look at that state too?

milemarker2020 on October 22, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Get out your red clay, gumby.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I still have no idea why Romney doesn’t go all-in for Michigan and Pennsylvania. Unlike Ohio, these states weren’t on the receiving end of Obamaphone shower or massive governmental contracts. They feel neglected, owe Obama no fealty, and may flip easily with proper influx of advertising, which Obama has no money to counter against.

Archivarix on October 22, 2012 at 4:55 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Whose sockpuppet are you? And, are you so stupid that you expect any of us to believe you?

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I thought pollsters were only going to use D+ whatever it takes samples….5,7,12… whatever it takes. Hello, Justice Department? You need to announce another polling company investigation.

Nate Silver can’t hold this fiction together all on his own! He needs some state polls favorable to Obumbles lest he be forced to announce Romney is the odds-on favorite!

MTF on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

WTF are you talking about?

catmman on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

I too am a Republican and yes, he should bow out now. McCain needs to take his place so we can get someone in there who can win this thing before it’s too late.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

This Ohio early voter did NOT vote for Obama.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 4:49 PM
You voted for Gary Johnson?!

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Actually, I picked blindly among the 7 (or was it 8?) non-Dem/non-GOP candidates.
/////

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Here’s my prediction. Lefties will claim Obama wins tonight’s debate making it two out of three, meaning Obama should be re-elected. Please disregard anything else.

perroviejo on October 22, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Whose sockpuppet are you? And, are you so stupid that you expect any of us to believe you?

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Well, it’s more articulate than libtard4life.

But the mentality is there…

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Exactly…..
Early voters are not the undecideds we’ve heard so much about. Early voters are the base…. excited to receive a –
Thank You , may I have another !!….

FlaMurph on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Obama flied flies to LA and Las Vegas on Wednesday.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Why is OH being so stubborn in support for Obama? OH should NOT be TIED. Romney should be leading by 6-8. Someone from OH, have any EXPLANATIONS? Or is OH trending socialist?

As for toilets, Hold on Michelle dear, We the People are going to flush you and your Socialist husband down on 11/6.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Unfortunately, we will see more of these sleeper cells activate in the next 2 weeks.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Here’s my prediction. Lefties will claim Obama wins tonight’s debate making it two out of three, meaning Obama should be re-elected. Please disregard anything else.

perroviejo on October 22, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Will do, old dog.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Whose sockpuppet are you? And, are you so stupid that you expect any of us to believe you?

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I think, or at least I hope, that it was a parody of Gumby.

midgeorgian on October 22, 2012 at 4:59 PM

And his arms must be tired.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I bet he can’t shoot a weapon and can’t fly a plane.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Unfortunately, we will see more of these sleeper cells activate in the next 2 weeks.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

And I might just avoid HA unless Ed gets the hammer out.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 4:59 PM

@Lanceman: Time to get new ‘people on the ground‘, as the ones you have that live beneath it are feeding you bad intel.

funkengruven on October 22, 2012 at 4:59 PM

As for toilets, Hold on Michelle dear, We the People are going to flush you and your Socialist husband down on 11/6.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Heh, the lobsters will eat her.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

This is actually encouraging, Suffolk has been leaning GOP this whole election cycle. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to keep Obama afloat. If that happens I’ll certainly take it.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

How about the Cemetery Vote in OH do we know if they got their absentee ballots mailed in for Obama yet?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Be prepared to be wow’ed by Barry’s preformance in the debate that allows him to win back Ohio. /s

Oil Can on October 22, 2012 at 4:52 PM

He’s being so inoculated from the actual data, he has NO CLUE he’s losing. This is a good thing! Watch Mitt gut him like a blue gill tonight! His handlers are keeping the real 4-1-1 from him, cuz’ if he knew where he really stood, he’d come out on stage tonight sucking his thumb and begging for mercy.

Chewy the Lab on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio?

I think it is quite possible Romney win has Obama winning NV and OH, but Romney winning IA, NH, and WI.

thuja on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

‘Sup?

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Funniest thing I’ve read all week.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

It’s not light which you imagine to see.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

It is all up to GOTV in Ohio.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM

lybia.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Okay, we know spelling isn’t a strong point with you.

But we need you to be a little bit better, its important in this instance.

Did you mean Libya, as in foreign policy and how 0bama screwed it up?

Or, did you mean labia? as in binders and “war on women” for the code pink crowd. Though I guess the code pinkos would be interested in both of those.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Like I said, I have some political connections high up in Ohio that told me Mitt lost his chance here with the “Binders” comment and failing to fix lybia.

He’s ahead in the “polls” right now due to a lot of outliers that remain with rolling averages and people not wanting to admit that they’re for Obama for fear of reprival from Romney’s ground organization. It will wear off in the next 2 weeks.

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Do your “high up” political friends know you’re illiterate?

And maybe your “high up” political friends can explain to you that if there are “a lot of outliers,” then they aren’t “outliers” anymore, they’re a trend.

You are NOT going to get that pack of Newports from OFA if you keep phoning it in like this.

Rational Thought on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM

How about the Cemetery Vote in OH do we know if they got their absentee ballots mailed in for Obama yet?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

We have Voter ID in Ohio. A little tougher for the “dead and buried” to cast a ballot. Not impossible, but tougher.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

That is some weapons grade stupidity. Criminy.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Heh, the lobsters will eat her.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Maybe the voters in MA flush Lizzie “Dances with Clams” Warren down to keep them company.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Or, did you mean labia? as in binders and “war on women” for the code pink crowd. Though I guess the code pinkos would be interested in both of those.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM

You DO know how Pink got her name, right?

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Here, just for you.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Conversation earlier today:
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Suffolk has 20% already voting with Obama up 13 among them. Romney leads by 3 among the 80% who have not voted. Have 20% actually voted?

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA
@NumbersMuncher 13-15% have voted. Prob be 20-25% be end of week

@HawkinsUSA That’s what I thought… going to make polls even worse over last two weeks.

@NumbersMuncher What’s funny is the polls showed EV numbers at 20% total turnout over a week ago and that hasn’t gone up over a week later

@HawkinsUSA Yep – going to make polls messy until the end.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Why is OH being so stubborn in support for Obama? OH should NOT be TIED. Romney should be leading by 6-8. Someone from OH, have any EXPLANATIONS? Or is OH trending socialist?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 4:58 PM

This is just my personal opinion, but I don’t think O-I-H-O is as close as the media would like us to believe. Obama has been losing at least 8 points in most state polls compared to 2008 which if applied to OH would put Romney up 3-4 points. The real problem with these OH polls is that they usually oversample Dems anywhere from 4-9 points. The turnout in 2010 was actually R+1 if I’m not mistaken.

So really it all comes down to turnout. Could Obama barely hang onto O-I-H-O? Sure. But at the same time, I think it’s far more likely to go to Romney by at least a couple points if Republican voters get to the polls.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

/

It’s the key that’s shared with the question mark. Look, you’ll find it.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

He wants to get as many votes as possible in before the 3rd quarter GDP results are released on Thursday.

crosspatch on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

This is actually encouraging, Suffolk has been leaning GOP this whole election cycle. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to keep Obama afloat. If that happens I’ll certainly take it.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

So it appears we all gave this moron too much credit in the other thread. A poll has it tied in Ohio and he somehow sees this as positive…

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 5:05 PM

This is just my personal opinion, but I don’t think O-I-H-O is as close as the media would like us to believe. Obama has been losing at least 8 points in most state polls compared to 2008 which if applied to OH would put Romney up 3-4 points. The real problem with these OH polls is that they usually oversample Dems anywhere from 4-9 points. The turnout in 2010 was actually R+1 if I’m not mistaken.

So really it all comes down to turnout. Could Obama barely hang onto O-I-H-O? Sure. But at the same time, I think it’s far more likely to go to Romney by at least a couple points if Republican voters get to the polls.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Ohio is going to Romney. Take it to the bank.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

akaniku, here ya go…another gift for you.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Suffolk and Gravis come back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a substantial lead in the RCP average.

-gumbyandpokey

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Note to Romney – DO NOT ask Obama any questions. Just state the truth, the facts, and put him on the defensive.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:51 PM


Amen to that!

Whoever put forward/didn’t kill the idea of asking the SCOAMF question during the last debate should be locked in a closet till after November 6th.

Asking a pathological liar a question he will never answer truthfully is wasting time when you can be citing specific failures. It is the dumbest debate strategy since someone told Nixon he didn’t need to wear make-up in his debate with Kennedy.

Side Note for tonight’s open thread/Twitter: Ed/AP – there is no need to agree or even take note of Republican establishment talking heads saying stupid things like, “Obama won on points.” as they did after the last debate. What matters is what people take away/talk about the next day ….. not someone’s debating coach scoring points.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 5:07 PM

We have Voter ID in Ohio. A little tougher for the “dead and buried” to cast a ballot. Not impossible, but tougher.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Oh good. I thought a judge had struck that down, but looking again that was PA.

With Voter ID, Romney should win OH by a comfortable margin.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 5:07 PM

So it appears we all gave this moron too much credit in the other thread. A poll has it tied in Ohio and he somehow sees this as positive…

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Anything tied goes Romney.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Do your “high up” political friends know you’re illiterate?

And maybe your “high up” political friends can explain to you that if there are “a lot of outliers,” then they aren’t “outliers” anymore, they’re a trend.

You are NOT going to get that pack of Newports from OFA if you keep phoning it in like this.

Rational Thought on October 22, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I’m guessing that Akaniku’s comment was a parody of a gumby comment and not a real comment.

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:08 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Too funny. You ‘sound’ just like the flexible one. And the chorus of horn-honking from the broken sarcasm-meter brigade is just as hilarious.

M240H on October 22, 2012 at 5:08 PM

It’s the key that’s shared with the question mark. Look, you’ll find it.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

I don’t understand. What does this have to do with Obama winning Ohio…

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Is that you Pragmatic? Or Gumby?

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 5:08 PM

We can only hpe. If it is a parody, they need to use / , as Bishop suggested.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

This is just my personal opinion, but I don’t think O-I-H-O is as close as the media would like us to believe. Obama has been losing at least 8 points in most state polls compared to 2008 which if applied to OH would put Romney up 3-4 points. The real problem with these OH polls is that they usually oversample Dems anywhere from 4-9 points. The turnout in 2010 was actually R+1 if I’m not mistaken.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Ohio is all the Dems and the MSM has to hang their hat on and they know it. To give a a more realistic picture would basically call the election for Romney.

They can’t have that.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Via Newsbusters, here’s Chuck Todd sounding bullish on Romney, and not for the first time today either.

.
The new narrative……..

Romney could have the edge– Get those community organizers going and lets start the buses and drive these people to the polls—

Our messiah could lose ! We can’t let him down !

FlaMurph on October 22, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Slightly off topic

Romney winning the White House will still be hampered by GOP not winning control of the senate. Moron Akin is ruining the chance to defeat a vulnerable and useless incumbent in MO. Beside his imbecile remark about the magic uterus back in August, he doubled down on stupidity by comparing McCaskill to a dog over the weekend, and today his aide used a profanity in a tweet to extend the moron’s weekend analogy.
http://news.yahoo.com/akin-aide-uses-profanity-shot-mccaskill-184304827–election.html

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I know we are on different sides but I need an explanation.

I’ve never understood-not just you-but others who have been entranced with early vote totals.

If a state is going to give x amount to one candidate and y amount to another-what does it matter when.

just wondering

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

So it appears we all gave this moron too much credit in the other thread. A poll has it tied in Ohio and he somehow sees this as positive…

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 5:05 PM

They look at high gas prices as a sign of a successful economy, or at least claim to see that. Give the lad a break, if you had to defend the disaster known as the Bark Administration, about the only thing you could do is spin like a top.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

This is encouraging..Very encouraging..:)

Dire Straits on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

WAPO/ABC

O 49
R 48

D+5

In the 7 swing states, including Ohio:

R 52
O 46

BOO YAH!

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

All of the “polling” here in NH seems to ignore that we fired nearly all of our Democrats in 2010.

Which means Romney is in much better shape here than those “polls” show.

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Barry serviced Barney Frank?

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Voted early today in TX. As much as I was hoping it would be someone else, Romney’s doing a pretty darned good job. And I think if we can back him up with a conservative Republican Congress, this nation might just stand a chance. Heck, send the looters packing, and we all just might have an epically wonderful Christmas. Whatever happens, I want to know I did everything I could.

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Anyone see that NH poll? O up 9? Yeah right.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

/

It’s the key that’s shared with the question mark. Look, you’ll find it.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

AND GET OFF MY LAWN YOU G** D*** KIDS !

M240H on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Is that you Pragmatic? Or Gumby?

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

This is actually encouraging, Suffolk has been leaning GOP this whole election cycle. Early voting in Ohio may be just enough to keep Obama afloat. If that happens I’ll certainly take it.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:01 PM

And all the other pollsters have been D+7 to D+11. It was D+8 in 2008. I don’t really think with 100 coal plants already closed by Obama’s policies and another 200 soon to close, that the rural counties, I believe under polled compared to the cities, are going to go anything but MASSIVELY red.

Obama has A LOT smaller early voting lead than 2008 as far as party affiliation and even then you can’t know how many of those Democrat registered ballots are for Obama, and how many for Romney, given that many of those Democrats are Kennedy and Reagan democrats, not Marxist demos.

I think Ohio is the big talking point state. “No President has ever been elected without Ohio!” they keep spouting. As long as they have that and overweighted polls, than whatever the national numbers the media can keep spinning and spinning that the race is still close.

PastorJon on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

I’m a republican and support Romney

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

No, you’re a new Axelrod Sleeper Cell Activation.

Welcome to my Grading Curve!

F-

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Jack Lord’s hair.

Look. If no one cares that he may be foreign-born, if no one gives two sh!ts about F&F, if no one even knows what Ben Gazzara is, if no one b!tches about him taking illegal contributions, What the hell do you think anyone would care about?

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Doubly encouraging: If Obama doesn’t believe he can win VA, then he has no need to appeal to military voters in that state. The new ad suggests he’s going to go hard isolationist tonight. He may even concede that Libya is not working, that none of the War on Terror is working and that its time to pack up shop, bring folks home and focus on domestic development issues. That may be enough to sway independents who are super war fatigued (it should have been the strategy from the get go). Sacrifice VA, appeal to anti-war independents in Ohio, win the electoral college barely. It could happen.

And no, I’m not reversing anything, I still think Obama will lose. But if he has a chance, this is it.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

I don’t understand. What does this have to do with Obama winning Ohio…

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Either you are digging deeply with a fake trolling effort…or…OR you are serious and are on the verge of being laughed out of HotGas.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

ike I said, I have some political connections high up in Ohio that told me Mitt lost his chance here with the “Binders” comment and failing to fix lybia.

I’m a republican and support Romney but he needs to bow out now before he makes it worse in the long run.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

You sound just like RuPoll. He claims “some political connections high up in” Wisconsin. He said that Walker would be recalled. He claims Romney is toast.

If women in Ohio are turned off by the “binders” comment, then they deserve to remain unemployed. Would they have preferred for Romney only to hire his friends and cronies? He used the binders to HIRE WOMEN. He gave them jobs. If the women in Ohio are that stupid, then they deserve Obama.

As for Libya, pray tell, how Romney, a former Governor of Massachusetts, who holds no office currently, was supposed to fix the mess Obama made in Libya?

BTW, are you a public school teacher?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

What does Trump have that will Nuke Barry?

SparkPlug on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

He’s messing with the Obama psyche, could have something from rich bankers/Wall Streeters having stuffed Obama’s pockets…mess with Gloria A., or keep himself in the news, again, or all, or none.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

A tangential thought and a question..well, two questions actually:

(1) Did everyone have a heart attack like I almost did when they saw [somewhere] on the RCP site that it was Romney 50-46? Double-check revealed he’s +6 — down one from yestiddy but still formidable.

(2) Notice the mantra being propagated that Obama is weak because he has NOT already done any retribution on the AQ (or whomever) who attacked the Benghazi consulate?

..K. T. McFarland and a congressman AND a couple of others were all over that last point this morning saying that delaying this long is a sign of weakness and invites a follow-up from your enemies.

The War Planner on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

chuck todd not too happy about reporting that number

heh

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Oh. Cute. Still, use the / tag. It’s very easy to do. Thanks.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Truth is a legitimate defense, man.

As for profanity, don’t get me started. I can impress sailors and Marines, and offend truckers.

Sekhmet on October 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

I was a Romney supporter until he belittiled women by threatening to put them inside binders and said that he wasn’t going to apologize for being rich.

I am a Republican but you can’t do those two things and be a credible candidate so I want Romney to bow to our domestic leader and exit the race so we can try again to defeat Obama in 2016.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

There’s all sorts of wrong in this comment.

Lanceman on October 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Anyone see that NH poll? O up 9? Yeah right.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 5:12 PM

That might play in a D+90 sample.

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

ot: tingles getting that thrill about tonight’s debate….

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

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