Suffolk poll of Ohio: Romney 47, Obama 47

posted at 4:44 pm on October 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Of the four most recent Ohio polls, two have the race tied, one has O up by a single point, and the other you already know about. An interesting tidbit from the new Suffolk poll: They’ve got Romney up three points among people who haven’t voted yet and Obama up 13 points among those who already have. That’s not surprising given how hard O’s been pushing people to vote early, replete with the specter of overflowing toilets on election day. He wants those ballots locked in just in case the country receives some new bit of terrible news down the stretch (e.g., another miserable jobs report on November 2) and/or he has another dial-tone debate tonight. If Obama had held his own in Denver, I bet a chunk of his early votes right now would be coming from persuadables who had concluded that the race was over and they might as well send their vote for O in ASAP. As it is, those persuadables are most likely now holding off in order to take a longer look at Romney, which means virtually all of O’s early votes are coming from people he would have had on election day anyway. Essentially, he’s helping himself now on turnout by prodding lazy voters to act early, but he’s not taking votes away from Mitt.

For the time being, I’m really only watching four polls: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The national polls like Gallup and Reuters are useful for trendspotting, to capture broad momentum shifts in the electorate or the lack thereof (for example, Obama’s gotten no bounce from his alleged second debate “win”), and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are worth peeking in on since they’re still in play, but there’s a good chance that those four states I named will determine the election. My working assumption is that Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will stay close but all ultimately tilt red, which, if true, would give Romney another 51 electoral votes on top of the 206 that are already leaning his way in RCP. Speaking of which, more good news from CO via Rasmussen:

Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided…

Romney now leads among all Colorado voters when they are asked whom they trust more in two key policy areas. He’s ahead 51% to 44% when it comes to the economy and 51% to 45% in the area of national security.

Obama led in Colorado by a point as recently as two weeks ago. Once Romney’s at 257 EVs, he wins the election by taking either (a) Ohio or (b) the other three states I named, all of which are currently led — narrowly — by Obama in RCP’s poll average. Here’s my question for poll junkies, though: Realistically, is there any scenario where Mitt wins Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire but doesn’t win Ohio? Ohio is where he’s spending time and money right now; I can see all of that attention paying off in a win there while the other three states, comparatively neglected, fall to O. If those states end up turning red, though, then it almost certainly means that there’s a national surge breaking for Romney among late-deciders which means all sorts of other states would be turning red too — including Ohio. Essentially, I can see him winning narrowly with Ohio or winning big as voters nationally turn on The One, but it’s hard to see a narrow win without Ohio. Unless something magical starts to happen…

Via Newsbusters, here’s Chuck Todd sounding bullish on Romney, and not for the first time today either.


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PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Can you do me a favor? Don’t demean people who are making an earnest plea for people to be cautious around election day. I’m not saying there are going to be riots but folks are already getting their 4th points of contact kicked for owning a Romney yard sign.

I put a “MITT” bumper sticker on my truck today and although I got lots of thumps up and honks, I got one seriously scary lady flipping me off and acting like she was going to swerve into my truck on 41A here in Clarkville, TN.

It is a serious coinsideration.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:26 PM

“thumbs” up

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:26 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Wow…WORST…MOBY…EVAR.

Dirt McGirt on October 22, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Please do not feed the trolls….

Mark

mailmars on October 22, 2012 at 8:28 PM

and consideration

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:30 PM

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Don’t forget… Brunner isn’t around to save the day.

And other things have changed as well.

The mystical glow of Obozo’s ‘historic’ victory kinda over-shadowed the dark underbelly of Dear Leader’s political machine.

CPT. Charles on October 22, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Not sure why you aren’t concerned, but I am. Look at the story in my link above. A man was put in the hospital over a sign.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:32 PM

You’ve been in harm’s way and from what I have read over time seem to be fairly level headed. If you’ve read some of my posts regarding the father who killed a man he found raping his daughter, you will know I believe there are times when force is the appropriate response.

I read the story at you link. My response is a question, “Was it worth this young man getting beaten up because someone was vandalizing his yard sign?”

My answer is “No, it is just a yard sign, not his house, his car, or his person. Call the police and report it. If they are like most vandals, they will keep vandalizing. If the police are like most police, they will be keeping an eye out. Eventually, God willing, the two sides of the law meet up and the vandals get arrrested.”

It was a yard sign being vandalized not the Battle of Bunker Hill.

You beat me to it, sir. I have 4 friends from Chicago who are coming to stay with me out here in the middle of nowhere Utah because they don’t to stay in the big city on election night.

The fear is real.

JPeterman on October 22, 2012 at 7:35 PM

.
The FEAR is an intimidation technique being used by the SCOAMF campaign and the MSM to try to influence the vote.

This works for the SCOAMF with independent voters who believe this lie and figure, “Well, better to vote for Obama and not have riots than to vote for Romeny and have riots.”

It also works for the SCAOMF campaign by giving them the ability to point the MSM to people on “right wing” websites posting about riots and then saying, “See. Just like we told you, they are racists and believe the nonsense on the internet has to be taken seriously.”

If you want to give a late campaign edge to the SCOAMF campaign, just keep FEEDING the fear. The SCOAMF will love you for it.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 8:41 PM

And what of the very realistic (more so than 269-269 IMO) possibility of a 50-50 Senate? Biden gets to tie break for himself? Ugh. I suppose that means there’s at least a 20% chance he’d screw up and choose Ryan by accident.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 6:09 PM

VP doesn’t get a tie breaker vote in this case. If it’s tied, there is actually no remedy except to try and convince someone to switch sides and vote again. Not sure if the VP slot needs to be filled, but if so, the VP position would temporarily go to the usual sequence of succession until Congress and Senate can agree as to what to do next.

This all dates from when the Founders wanted a VP that is from an opposite political alignment than the President because they liked checks and balances and disliked political parties. That was left behind because if the VP were to put a hit on the President, then the VP would become the President before anyone found out who was responsible and could likely easily cover it up. Not just that, but the VP could actively act to subvert the President’s position. Thing is no one bothered to change all the rules to reflect this.

MrX on October 22, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I got caught in a traffic jam in Akron today, caused by Biden’s caravan on his way from Canton to Lorain. These areas should be cold for Obama, so if he is ahead, why is Biden in town? A rhetorical question, I know.

FirelandsO3 on October 22, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Can you do me a favor? Don’t demean people who are making an earnest plea for people to be cautious around election day. I’m not saying there are going to be riots but folks are already getting their 4th points of contact kicked for owning a Romney yard sign.

I put a “MITT” bumper sticker on my truck today and although I got lots of thumps up and honks, I got one seriously scary lady flipping me off and acting like she was going to swerve into my truck on 41A here in Clarkville, TN.

It is a serious coinsideration.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 8:26 PM

.
If you can point to my demeaning someone who is making “an earnest plea for people to be cautious around election day”, I will apologize.

I will not apologize to those who want to stoke FEAR based on “conspiracy thinking”.

See ALL of my posts on this topic, including my most recent to you and JPeterman.

Getting people worked up so you can point to them as being dangerous is a very old political manuever.

PolAgnostic on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Here’s the deal gang,

Being the history nerd I am, I took a tour of the intertubes and HA in particular from late October of 2008. I know there wasn’t a lot of optimism at that time, heck, I’d long since accepted defeat.

These are my findings:

McCain regularly trailing Obama in the polls by mid to upper single digits.

Talk of PA when public polls showed a double digit Obama lead.

Obama odds on Intrade (which we all love to hate) at 80%.

Us grasping at rare outlier polls that show our candidate close (no actual leads)

Today:

Romney leading Obama by low to mid single digits in multiple national polls.

Serious talk of PA that is backed up by public polling. Even the less favorable PA polls for Romney are numbers McCain would have killed for (and numbers his advisers tried convincing the media were showing up in internal polls).

Obama under 60 (last I heard from Jim Pethoukoukis) on Intrade. Even tighter in the University of Iowa betting system.

The other side grasping at rare outlier polls showing their candidate close or in a small lead.

I’m nowhere near the level of smugness that some have exhibited saying this thing will be a landslide (I’m a recovering Eeyore from my earliest days) but am cautiously optimistic. Sent Romney a little more cheddar this week because I am fortunate enough to have the discretionary income (Gen Y) to do so. I’d encourage anyone reading this to do whatever you can. Give, call, knock, display a sign/bumper sticker, whatever. Contribute.

adurb44 on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 PM

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