Romney edges into 49/47 lead in Politico/GWU Battleground poll

posted at 8:41 am on October 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama and his allies promised to make this election about the 47%, and so far they’re succeeding — but in a much different way than they expected.  In most of the latest national polls, Obama can’t get above 47%, while his challenger Mitt Romney surpasses him.  Add the Politico/GWU Battleground poll to the list, where Romney moved into the lead for the first time:

Mitt Romney has taken a narrow national lead, tightened the gender gap and expanded his edge over President Barack Obama on who would best grow the economy.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by two points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a three-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before.

Romney has not led in the poll since the beginning of May.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 to 48 percent.

Let’s take a look inside the numbers.  The D/R/I for this poll is 35/31/33 for a D+4, a not-insupportable number that probably still understates Republican enthusiasm and turnout.  Republicans comprised 32% of the electorate in 2008 and 35% of the electorate in 2010, so they’re unlikely to have a worse relative turnout this time than either of the past two elections.  However, the non-white percentage in the sample (22%) looks a little thin compared to 2008 (26%), but close to 2010′s 23%.  That’s something to keep in mind, as I suspect that the 2012 turnout will be somewhere between the two, and the undersample here may balance out the undersample of Republicans.

Two keys suggest Romney’s doing better than his toplines.  First, he’s winning the gender gap.  Romney gets a +10 among men, while Obama gets a +8 among women, for a +2 advantage for Romney.  In 2008, Obama had a +14 gender gap advantage over John McCain.  Obama wins single women, but is getting clobbered among married women, 42/55.  Romney’s also leading among women without children overall, 50/46, suggesting that women who already know how to access birth control aren’t terribly concerned about it as an election issue.

The second key is age demographics.  Obama has a 30-point lead among voters 34 years and younger, but that’s his only win.  He and Romney tie among 35-44YOs at 48 each, but Romney has double digit leads among 45-64YOs (54/44) and seniors (58/38).  Those last two demographics are the most likely to vote in the election.

This is yet another poll series showing Romney trending toward victory, and I suspect that the momentum is greater than the toplines suggest.  Keep an eye out after the final debate as more undecideds firm up their choice — as history shows, they tend to support the challenger.  As Chuck Todd said yesterday, 47% is a bad number for incumbents, not challengers:


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Keep going RR

OmahaConservative on October 22, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Knock out punch TONITE!

hillsoftx on October 22, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Yes but in the most recent +9 skewed Ohio Poll, Obama is up +5!! Take that wingnut extremist teabaggers!!!!!!!! /

dernst2 on October 22, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Readjusted for a sane turnout model:

Romney, 50.2

Obama, 44.8

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Gumby, once he finishes his bowl of Lucky Charms, will weigh in on all of Ed’s misinformation…

hillsoftx on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Yes but in the most recent +9 skewed Ohio Poll, Obama is up +5!! Take that wingnut extremist teabaggers!!!!!!!! /

dernst2 on October 22, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Is that the CBS poll? Good thing that network has no role in the debate tonight….oh wait.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Almost Optimal.

WordsMatter on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Victory is within sight

blatantblue on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Where’s the Fake But Accurate C-BS “Poll”?

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Lat night gumbypoked was touting the seeBS poll in OH coming out this morning. It shows Barry at 50 and Romney at 45. But the party breakdown is
D 35, R 26 and I 33. +9 for D. Republicans turnout will be at 26, really?

Romney is leading among indies by 7, 49 to 42. Barry edge was the psy op Team Barry was trying to pull with early voting. Among those yet to cast the vote, it is Barry 49 and Romney 47 in this +9 skewed poll.

And Barry was leading 53 to 43 in September.

This poll, properly weighed, will show Romney winning Ohio,like the swing state poll from Politico/GWU poll. gumbypoked is getting desperate, if that is what is left for him to sell.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Reqding one of gumby’s posts is like rubbernecking a multi-car accident. You can’t believe what you’re looking at.

Go, Mitt! Have a great night tonight!

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45

Don’t know the internals. Last one was D+9.

bgibbs1000 on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

There hasn’t been a recent two party race (sorry, Libertarians & Greens) in which the loser didn’t get at least 46%, and that was McCain basically throwing in the towel. A 52% – 47% (1% to minor parties) would be a 2008 blowout.

rbj on October 22, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Keep an eye out after the final debate as more undecideds firm up their choice — as history shows, they tend to support the challenger.

Historically 80% of undecideds vote for the challenger. Factoring that into my own average I have Romney ahead of Obama 53.6% to 45.1%.

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 8:51 AM

This tells me that even Politico knows it’s over as they haven’t had Romney in the lead since May. The fascade has fallen and there’s no hiding it anymore, so it’s time to at least look respectable.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Whoa, the poked one’s hardest hit…this requires a public harakiri from the pokeyshit….anything less won’t do…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Here in Michigan, totally unscientific lawn sign poll over the weekend had Romney leading Obama 3-1. I’m telling ya folks, it’s a lot closer here in Michigan than these polls suggest. The Obama enthusiasm is just not here.

GadsdenRattlers on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

J u g u l a r mitt

No holding back tonight

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45

Don’t know the internals. Last one was D+9.

bgibbs1000 on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Whoa.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

It is D+9 with a ludicrous sample size for Republicans of 26%.

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Whoa.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Sorry, misread your post. I was thinking Romney had the 50.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 8:55 AM

here’s your D+9 and me pot of gold! – Leprechaun

Slade73 on October 22, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Go, Mitt! Have a great night tonight!

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

My advise would be – Don’t harm yourself. You have the momentum and you don’t need to do anything out of the ordinary. Be yourself.

If he can have an OK night – I’d be happy.

A landslide is coming….

antisocial on October 22, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45

Don’t know the internals. Last one was D+9.

bgibbs1000 on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Apparently that new poll also uses a D+9 sample with only 26% being Republican. That’s preposterous at this stage of the campaign for them to pretend the exit polls will look anything like that.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 8:57 AM

antisocial on October 22, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I just hope Mitt is avidly reading all of the liberal pundit’s advice to avoid bringing up any issue that might harm Obama.

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

http://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2012/10/22/should-barack-obama-resign-tonight/
That or we retire him on Nov 6. Either way is fine.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Well, make sure you go out and vote. Mitt’s margin of victory has to be big in order to show a total repudiation (or refudiation if you like that term better) of Obama and all his works.

IdrilofGondolin on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

O’Butthead is trending his way to Hawaii this January and a much deserved early retirement.

As I’ve said for months, this election won’t (& shouldn’t) be close.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 22, 2012 at 8:59 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio, lol.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Knock out punch TONITE!

hillsoftx on October 22, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Screw the knock out punch. I want a jumping up and down on the corpse kind of a night!

But seriously, this debate is largely meaningless (other than the demeanor of the candidates). If somebody is undecided at this point, they are not going to be swayed by foreign policy discussion. Mitt Romney needs to look Presidential and laugh in rat-ears face when he declares that Romney isn’t a good choice for President because he has no foreign policy experience.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Isn’t it interesting that every few days a big poll comes out that keeps RCP’s national average in Barry’s favor. It’s almost as if they PAY these people to keep it that way…

BettyRuth on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio!
gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

yes he does

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio!

gumbyandpokeySkittlePoopingUnicorn on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

There you are! We were getting worried.

You just be sure to be here the night of Nov. 6th to say your goodbyes.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio, lol.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:59 AM

So now you believe O-I-H-O turnout will be D+9? That’s not what you said on here a couple days ago. Moving the goalposts again?

(BTW, if you do think that turnout on Election Day will be D+9, you’re an idiot.)

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:01 AM

After months of bogus polling, shouldn’t we now expect these outfits to get serious in the two weeks leading up to the election so that they can salvage some credibility?

Maybe they’re waiting until after the final debate to decide to ditch Obama.

I suppose they can wait to see whether Mitt does something stupid that tanks his chances or whether Mitt seals the deal and pollsters can proclaim it’s 1980 all over again with momentum swinging almost entirely to the challenger.

BuckeyeSam on October 22, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Ed got a shout out on kfyi this am on his post re small ball dear leader

Way to go Ed.:)

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 9:01 AM

PPP: WITH D+8 SAMPLE, ROMNEY DOWN ONE IN OHIO; LEADS OBAMA ON LIBYA TRUST

GadsdenRattlers on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Gumby, once he finishes his bowl of Lucky Charms Purina Rat Chow, will weigh in on all of Ed’s misinformation…

hillsoftx on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 AM

FIFY

eyedoc on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

gumbypoked failed napping in kindergarten, and continuing failure essentially sums up his miserable life.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Hahahahahaha… keep thinking that little buddy. I can’t believe you are so desperate that you are actually willing to believe a poll that has Republican turnout at 26%.

Hahahahahaha.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio, lol.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:59 AM

:) epic faiil!!!

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Here in Michigan, totally unscientific lawn sign poll over the weekend had  . . .

GadsdenRattlers on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Every so often someone makes a post like this. Sorry, but looking at lawn signs and bumper stickers is not going to tell you what the result of an election will be.

Dextrous on October 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

This concern troll has become extremely annoying. Like having a propaganda outlet playing in the background of every thread except those involving Libya. The administration’s cover-up is so much of a scandal, the concern trolls become very quiet when the issue of dead diplomats comes up.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Poor gumby. Being a Lib is easy. Math is hard.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Obama wins single women, but is getting clobbered among married women, 42/55.

Those unsophisticated wimmin… They worry more about their careers, family than hope n change…

Obama has a 30-point lead among voters 34 years and younger, but that’s his only win.

Wonder what they do when they don’t find a job? Stay on their parents insurance until 26?

Romney has double digit leads among 45-64YOs (54/44) and seniors (58/38).

As you age, you become wiser :-)

antisocial on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

PPP: WITH D+8 SAMPLE, ROMNEY DOWN ONE IN OHIO; LEADS OBAMA ON LIBYA TRUST

GadsdenRattlers on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

In other words, Romney’s pulled ahead in O-I-H-O if you use a realistic poll sample. He may even be leading outside the MOE if turnout on 11/6 looks anything like 2010.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Obama must now know what Hitler felt like in his bunker…after France (NC) fell, Holland fell (FL), Belgium fell (CO), the eastern front fell (VA), Poland fell (NH)….

His generals (the media/lib leaning pollsters) gathered around assuring him that Berlin (Ohio) is safe. That the allies couldn’t win if Berlin was held.

Well..we know how that turned out.

HumpBot Salvation on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

““Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio, lol.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:59 AM

So now you believe O-I-H-O turnout will be D+9?”

No, not at all.

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I can’t believe you are so desperate that you are actually willing to believe a poll that has Republican turnout at 26%.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

This concern troll also believes in the rat-eared wonder which should tell you all you need to know about it’s judgement.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 9:06 AM

As I stated in the QOTD thread last night…….

I live in the Florida panhandle around Destin. In my neighborhood there are about 40 Romney lawn signs. There is one Obama sign and it is shoved half way in a bush. Romney wins Florida. Nuff said.

Meat Fighter on October 22, 2012 at 9:06 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

You’re flailing.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 9:06 AM

gumbypoked failed napping in kindergarten, and continuing failure essentially sums up his miserable life.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 9:02 AM

As a child his mummy put him in the bouncy chair upside down.

HumpBot Salvation on October 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM

No, not at all.

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM

A two point lead in a Politico poll means that Romney is like 32 points ahead.

Pork-Chop on October 22, 2012 at 9:08 AM

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Best in history, huh? Is that what Axelrod’s emails tell you? LOL.

And I love how you keep moving the goalposts, too. Now Romney has to have at least a 2 point lead in a poll, or he’s DOOMED. You’re embarrassing yourself, troll.

changer1701 on October 22, 2012 at 9:09 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio, lol.

gumbyandpokey

Actually yes he does. Your own poll shows it. Their poll from Sept 26th had Obama up 10 points.
Oh love the sample as well. 35D/26R/34I. 2008 was 39/31/30 and 2010 was 36/37/28. Now way in any level of hell is R turnout only 26. If it was tuned to a D+3 turnout, Romney is up by 1.

Zaggs on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Blow Hard D. Trump was on Fox’s moring show saying he had a anouncement for Wed. Oct. 24th that will do harm to B. O.

?

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Romney is actually 53 in that case.

If the pollsters used the correct model, I suspect the dems would all be crying.

USE THE 2010 MODEL!

dogsoldier on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

“No, not at all.

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM”

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Hahaa, ithe Dem GOVT machine in Wisconsin was the best in history too loool :)…which is why Walker lost :)…Epic faiil, pokeyshit!!!! We expect nothing less from you than publc harakiri :)…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:11 AM

“USE THE 2010 MODEL!

dogsoldier on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM”

Why would you use the turnout model for an off-year election instead of something closer to the last Presidential election, when many more people vote?

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:12 AM

No, not at all.

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I see what you did there. You claim the only way he has a shot is by having a 2 point lead in a poll before the election. You and I both know that no poll will show that kind of a lead with a +9 sample, which you yourself claim is not going to be an accurate reflection of the OH electorate on election day.

dernst2 on October 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM”

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

The polls showed the same thing during govt Walker recall too :)…hahaa…and we said they were wrong, but pokeyshit here said no, the polls are right, the Dems have an infallible vote machine and Walker ads are bad and he doesn’t want to win this :)…Walker’s a goner :)…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:15 AM

“You and I both know that no poll will show that kind of a lead with a +9 sample”

Why couldn’t it happen in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio?

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:15 AM

The D/R/I for this poll is 35/31/33 for a D+4, a not-insupportable number that probably still understates Republican enthusiasm and turnout. Republicans comprised 32% of the electorate in 2008 and 35% of the electorate in 2010, so they’re unlikely to have a worse relative turnout this time than either of the past two elections.

It’s completely unsupportable. There is no way R turnout will be lower than in 2008 or that D support will be as high as 2008 when it was D+5. D support is going to be down at least 5 points. D+4 is a Dim pipe dream. This is going to be a R+5 election.

Basilsbest on October 22, 2012 at 9:16 AM

GOTV that is…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I can’t speak for the swing states but for those of you who live in any shade of blue, here’s my anecdotal notes from my drive from Houston to Mobile, AL yesterday. (I’m here to do genealogical research). I counted 17 anti-Obama stickers of varying degrees of snarkiness (7 on one truck alone), 8 Romney stickers and various Romney signs on fences along I-10. There was a lone Obama yard sign along the way. Granted, the south is a lock, but it made my drive less aggravating. My blood pressure tends to rise when I see any O related advertising.

TxAnn56 on October 22, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Why is this so hard for you to understand? 2012 is NOT 2008! No one, including members of the Democrat/media complex, think for one second that turnout on Election Day this time around will in any way resemble what happened 4 years ago. They’ll never publicly admit it(hence the BS poll samples they continue to use), but they all know it.

Obama is hemorrhaging support in every single swing state. And we’re not just talking a point or two. He’s losing 6-8 points and sometimes more in these state polls. There is no way in hell he’s going to generate the same turnout in O-I-H-O or any other state as he did in 2008.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:16 AM

No, not at all.

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I see what you did there. You claim the only way he has a shot is by having a 2 point lead in a poll before the election. You and I both know that no poll will show that kind of a lead with a +9 sample, which you yourself claim is not going to be an accurate reflection of the OH electorate on election day.

dernst2 on October 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Not only that, but the idiot had to put D turnout at +4 or +5 for Ohio even though he said +3 nationally because he knows if it is +3 for Ohio then the poll shows Romney ahead. He’s such a moron.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokeySkittlePoopingUnicorn on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

ROFLMMFAO

How convenient of you to discount 2010.

I’ll give you some props, though – you’re virtually the only delusional moron still here trying to flail away – your cohorts (Drywall, Libfree, etc.) have all run for the hills.

Don’t forget to say buh bye on Nov. 6.

By the way, how’s PA lookin’?

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 22, 2012 at 9:18 AM

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:15 AM

We are at the point here where gummedbrain thinks he is pissing allover everyone, but the truth is he forgot how to pull his pants down and the rest of us are busy telling our children it isn’t polite to point.

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 9:18 AM

“The polls showed the same thing during govt Walker recall too :)…hahaa…and we said they were wrong,”

Heh, another urban legend…that Walker was behind in the recall polls…

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WeAskAmerica 5/23 – 5/23 1409 LV 54 42 Walker +12
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 5/11 – 5/13 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:18 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Romney was down by 10 points in the last CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll. So, are you saying Obama has the momentum because Romney cut his lead in half with a D +9 sample?

LOL

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:19 AM

DON’T GET TOO EXCITED!

Q-Poll is out with their Dem +9 sample (26% Republicans – lol) showing Obama up 5 in OH.

Dem +9 in OH? 26% Republicans? Are they joking?

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 9:19 AM

too funny – gumby has gone from claiming all the polls show Obama winning to claiming that Obama’s GOTV is so good that it doesn’t matter what the polls show.

And, of course, we should totally ignore 2010 results and look only to the 2008 results for partisan split, etc.

Because, Obama clearly hasn’t lost support since 2008 – he’s gained support. thus, the D vote will be even higher!! The turnout even higher!! the R vote will be less and the indies will vote overwhelmingly for O!!

Of course, no poll supports a single argument Gumby is making and the GOP made significant gains in the early voting compared to 2008, but don’t pay any attention to any of that. Gumby says Obama is going to win despite all of that and he had lunch with a popular WI politician!!

What’s the point gumby? What are you trying to achieve here with your inane nonsense?

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 9:19 AM

“By the way, how’s PA lookin’?

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 22, 2012 at 9:18 AM”

PA is looking strong for Obama this morning. The Morning Call poll just out shows Obama +5.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:19 AM

“As someone in WI, I can attest to the fact that early voting is HUGE for the Dems and Barrett. I went to Milwaukee to see for myself and, sure enough, there were vans dropping people off to vote. They were ONE WISCONSIN NOW vans and were numbered 15 and 16. I live in heavily GOP Waukesha
County and there has been little, if any, early voting here.

I’m more than a little worried that the Walker Campaign has basically decided not to invest at all in a concerted GOTV effort and is relying on bad TV ads to get people motivated to vote.

gumbyandpokey on May 22, 2012 at 8:22 PM”

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Every so often someone makes a post like this. Sorry, but looking at lawn signs and bumper stickers is not going to tell you what the result of an election will be.

Dextrous on October 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Of course not – but it’s nice to get field reports like this. We need to keep up the GOTV effort.

22044 on October 22, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Obama has a 30-point lead among voters 34 years and younger

That really scares the hell out of me when it comes to the future of this country. I really, really hope that’s a bigger lead among voters under, say, 25 — offset by a Romney lead by 25-34 year olds. We have infantilized the next generation for far too long.

Caiwyn on October 22, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Maybe gunby’s somebody’s sock puppet like Lanceman says. I can’t see anybody being this much of an idiot. Except maybe Biden…and the guy who married ex-wife #2.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history most corrupt in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

And until there is one poll that shows Romney with at least a 2 pt lead in OH, there is no chance he wins that state.

gumbyandpokey

Fixed it for you. Also Obama won Ohio in 2008 with a 20 point advantage in early voting. Now that advantage is only 7. Mittmentum everywhere you try to hide it.

Zaggs on October 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

The polls showed about a 4.5 Dem advantage. D+9 polls showing Romney inside the MOE are ROmney leads. WE all know the reality on the ground in Ohio – Obama is uderperforming and Romney overperforming compared to 08. Obama is down with Indies and underperforming on the gender gap, if not trailing. Personally I just need Mitt to look like a president tonight. Just like the last two times.

330-210 Romney.

Zomcon JEM on October 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Why would you use the turnout model for an off-year election instead of something closer to the last Presidential election, when many more people vote?

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Because again, 2008 was an anomaly, not the new normal. Other than young voters(and their turnout on Election Day is never a wise bet), Obama is bleeding support in every other group. His advantage among indies has been reversed, GOP intensity is way higher than 4 years ago, and Democrat enthusiasm is lower. Let’s also not forget that Mitt is doing better with Catholics and Jewish voters than McCain.

Add all of that up and Obama’s only hope at reelection is to recreate the turnout of 2008 on his side while severely depressing GOP(and independent) turnout. No one except for you seems to think that’s likely at this point.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

USE THE 2010 MODEL!

dogsoldier on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Actually, voting patterns are very different between presidential election years and “mid-term” years. It wouldn’t automatically be correct to use the turnout stats from the previous mid-term election.

However, there has obviously been a major swing towards higher Republican turnout. It looks like the discrepancies among all the polls hinge on that question.

Dextrous on October 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

““Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in Ohio!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Romney was down by 10 points in the last CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll. So, are you saying Obama has the momentum because Romney cut his lead in half with a D +9 sample?

LOL

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:19 AM”

I’ve predicted here that Obama wins OH by 1-2 pts and that looks like a safe bet. It will be closer than vs McCain, but the early voting is still providing a huge cushion for Obama that will hold on election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:22 AM

breaking news:

chuck todd intereviewing dws. she put a little grease in the front part of her hair to flatten it out a bit, so she looks less medusa like.

renalin on October 22, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Q-Poll has about another week to play games with the sample before they need to get serious so that they can claim “super-accuracy” next cycle.

The good news is that when all of these biased pollsters get real with their samples we will see a HUGE surge to Romney into election day. The Left is just hoping they can do enough damage with early voting to offset a massive win by Romney on Nov 6th.

So far doesn’t look like that is happening as early voting for Obama is WAY WAY down everywhere.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 9:23 AM

As it is this is the moment in time when the commie undemocrat party starts its long slow slide into the dustbin of History.

Only those able disable their ability to reason remain in the cult.

Earth First, Red Commie, Anti-Americans, Party Hacks on the dole and the on the dole for beer money.

Only that will remain.

Truth and History work as a team.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 22, 2012 at 9:23 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Well, desperation looks like this. I think Ohio is gone for Obama already. 3-4 pt Romney win.

Zomcon JEM on October 22, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Poor gumby. Being a Lib is easy. Math is hard.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 9:05 AM

All that showering time that they get to use in other ways.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I’ve predicted here that Obama wins OH by 1-2 pts and that looks like a safe bet. It will be closer than vs McCain, but the early voting is still providing a huge cushion for Obama that will hold on election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Are you basing this “huge cushion in early voting” upon Marist polling? That has been thoroughly debunked as their numbers of ballots returned are double what the State themselves are reporting.

Obama’s lead in early OH voting is a mere fraction of what it was in 2008.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Let me put it this way. Romney will win OH by so much that they will probably call it for him with 50% of the vote in.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 9:26 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012

…you’re the ONE that always stays at parties…long after EVERYONE has gone home…aren’t you?

KOOLAID2 on October 22, 2012 at 9:26 AM

From Gumby’s Nevada link:

Thus far 3 Nevada Counties have reported results: Carson County, Douglas County and Washoe County. Of this list we only care about Washoe County (Reno) because that is one of the Battleground Counties, it comprised nearly 19% of the 2008 Nevada electorate and Romney should flip it back after Obama carried it in 2008. This is why yesterday’s endorsement of Romney by the Reno Gazette-Journal was so important. Endorsements may not persuade voters, but they are a clear indication of informed voter sentiment. And when they switch endorsements against an incumbent that is noteworthy.

This is much the same as all-important Clark County (Las Vegas) which accounted for over 67% of the total Nevada vote in 2008. Obama will carry Clark, but it is the margin that will be key. Clark …

So we see the combination of Clark and Washoe account for 86% of the entire Nevada vote making the rest of the counties rounding error to what happens in those two population centers. Every other county is also heavily Republican too so seeing advantages there don’t mean as much either.

Day 1 results are as follows:

Responses are by party registration, not their actual vote…

Washoe:

The Democrat advantage of 34 points on the first day four years ago is now on 10 points . But just as interesting is the enthusiasm measure. The total early vote is up 3,084 but the Democrat vote increase is only 698 and the “Other” is up only 440. Republicans on the other hand are up 1,946, 3x as much as the Democrats. That type of enthusiasm and early vote ground game is quite similar to what we are seeing in Ohio. It’s only day one but it’s nice to come out of the gates strong. Heavily Democrat Clark County is the real test but expect incredible Democrat #s there just like Iowa. The key for Republicans will be to fight their way back from now until election day to “mind the gap.”

Clark County:

A 38 point spread in 2008 is now a 26 point gap in 2012. That is a big deal if these #s prove close to correct. Romney won’t win Clark but he needs to “mind the gap” which at least on Day 1 is exactly what he is doing. Great news for the GOP and Ralston is doing the dance of joy on behalf of the Democrats?

Carson County: 1,109 votes

Dem 35.3%
Rep 49.1%
None/Oth 15.5%

Douglas County: 3,037 votes

Dem 27.7%
Rep 57.2%
None/Oth 15.1%

It makes you wonder if RuPoll even reads his own links…

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:26 AM

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I think some will stick with their outrageous internals until the bitter end. Propaganda is more important than accuracy.

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 9:26 AM

gumbyball,

You will need a new handle and stick the day after the election, better get a new e-mail addy and get signed in as someting like..

“Always Conservative”. hide quick.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 22, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45

Don’t know the internals. Last one was D+9.

bgibbs1000 on October 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

@Brand_Allen

#OHIO #POLL: New Angus Reid survey has OH TIED, 48-48% http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012.10.21_Ohio.pdf … Joins @PPPpolls & Gravis in finding OH tied #tcot #firewallmyass

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 9:27 AM

It’s sounding very 08 in here with people desperately trying to ignore the polls or spin them as good news.

I remember on election day 08 you had spinmeisters like Hugh Hewitt saying how well McCain was doing in Ohio, how he was meeting all his turnout goals and would win the state. And you guys bought that crap hook, line and sinker. I can’t wait until that happens again and you are all left scratching your heads wondering what went wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

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