Romney edges into 49/47 lead in Politico/GWU Battleground poll

posted at 8:41 am on October 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama and his allies promised to make this election about the 47%, and so far they’re succeeding — but in a much different way than they expected.  In most of the latest national polls, Obama can’t get above 47%, while his challenger Mitt Romney surpasses him.  Add the Politico/GWU Battleground poll to the list, where Romney moved into the lead for the first time:

Mitt Romney has taken a narrow national lead, tightened the gender gap and expanded his edge over President Barack Obama on who would best grow the economy.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by two points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a three-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before.

Romney has not led in the poll since the beginning of May.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 to 48 percent.

Let’s take a look inside the numbers.  The D/R/I for this poll is 35/31/33 for a D+4, a not-insupportable number that probably still understates Republican enthusiasm and turnout.  Republicans comprised 32% of the electorate in 2008 and 35% of the electorate in 2010, so they’re unlikely to have a worse relative turnout this time than either of the past two elections.  However, the non-white percentage in the sample (22%) looks a little thin compared to 2008 (26%), but close to 2010′s 23%.  That’s something to keep in mind, as I suspect that the 2012 turnout will be somewhere between the two, and the undersample here may balance out the undersample of Republicans.

Two keys suggest Romney’s doing better than his toplines.  First, he’s winning the gender gap.  Romney gets a +10 among men, while Obama gets a +8 among women, for a +2 advantage for Romney.  In 2008, Obama had a +14 gender gap advantage over John McCain.  Obama wins single women, but is getting clobbered among married women, 42/55.  Romney’s also leading among women without children overall, 50/46, suggesting that women who already know how to access birth control aren’t terribly concerned about it as an election issue.

The second key is age demographics.  Obama has a 30-point lead among voters 34 years and younger, but that’s his only win.  He and Romney tie among 35-44YOs at 48 each, but Romney has double digit leads among 45-64YOs (54/44) and seniors (58/38).  Those last two demographics are the most likely to vote in the election.

This is yet another poll series showing Romney trending toward victory, and I suspect that the momentum is greater than the toplines suggest.  Keep an eye out after the final debate as more undecideds firm up their choice — as history shows, they tend to support the challenger.  As Chuck Todd said yesterday, 47% is a bad number for incumbents, not challengers:


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Not only that, but the idiot had to put D turnout at +4 or +5 for Ohio even though he said +3 nationally because he knows if it is +3 for Ohio then the poll shows Romney ahead. He’s such a moron.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:17 AM

But hey, pokeyshit has an explanation for that, ‘the historic’ Dem GOTV machine in Ohio loool :) …where on earth is he pulling this crapola out, his dirty azz most likely….so prescient pokeyshit here already saw glimpses of the future and knows how ‘historic’ the Dim GOTV machine will be…guess same like that local CBS station knows that Obama will carry that state :)…oh, and same like pokeyshit saw that Walker was a goner, what wih that historic Wisconsin Dim vote machine :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I’ve predicted here that Obama wins OH by 1-2 pts and that looks like a safe bet. It will be closer than vs McCain, but the early voting is still providing a huge cushion for Obama that will hold on election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Still relying on EV, eh? Huge cushion, eh? Haven’t read the data from the SOS’ office via GMU that I told you to study then, eh?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Actually, voting patterns are very different between presidential election years and “mid-term” years. It wouldn’t automatically be correct to use the turnout stats from the previous mid-term election.

However, there has obviously been a major swing towards higher Republican turnout. It looks like the discrepancies among all the polls hinge on that question.

Dextrous on October 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

They are different, and I think most of us acknowledge that. Certainly, Ed has repeatedly admitted(including on this thread) that Dems may outnumber Republicans on Election Day. But at the same time, there is no way any sane person can argue that it’ll remain D+7 nationally like 4 years ago. And also, it’s not unfathomable that we could see a D/R tie this time around. It’s not like Republicans and conservatives aren’t just as eager to vote in 2012 as they were in 2010.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

It’s not 2008, misfit. People actually know who and what Obama is now.

He’s toast.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Dang, it stinks in here.

Oh, gumby left a pile of desperation on the floor.

Silly gumby.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 9:30 AM

It’s sounding very 08 in here with people desperately trying to ignore the polls or spin them as good news.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Project much? Who’s the one on here claiming a D+9 poll as proof that Obama will hold onto O-I-H-O?

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Laugh all you want. This isn’t 2008. Obama isn’t going to get his 2008 turnout….so why put so much faith in a poll that has Obama INCREASING his 2008 turnout with DECREASED REPUBLICAN TURNOUT?

The enthusiasm is all of the Republican side. The 2008 turnout in OH was D +5. If we use the 2008 turnout, then Obama is leading by 1. Obama, however, is not going to get his 2008 numbers and Romney is going to do much better than McLame. Many people stayed home. They won’t this year.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

“I’ve predicted here that Obama wins OH by 1-2 pts and that looks like a safe bet. It will be closer than vs McCain, but the early voting is still providing a huge cushion for Obama that will hold on election day.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Still relying on EV, eh? Huge cushion, eh? Haven’t read the data from the SOS’ office via GMU that I told you to study then, eh?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM”

Read all the reports from the SOS.

Obama is still way ahead, if down from 2008. And that margin is certainly enough to win the state by 1-2%.

You guys are happy that Romney is getting killed in early voting, but not as badly as McCain? Easily pleased, I guess….

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Project much? Who’s the one on here claiming a D+9 poll as proof that Obama will hold onto O-I-H-O?

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I just laugh at him now. That’s all he deserves. He’s so desperate that laughing really is all I can do.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Anyone know why RCP isn’t using PPP’s daily tracker in their average?

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

It’s sounding very 08 in here with people desperately trying to ignore the polls or spin them as good news.

I remember on election day 08 you had spinmeisters like Hugh Hewitt saying how well McCain was doing in Ohio, how he was meeting all his turnout goals and would win the state. And you guys bought that crap hook, line and sinker. I can’t wait until that happens again and you are all left scratching your heads wondering what went wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Hey, retard, did you see Romney’s national numbers, you compare his current standing to McCain’s numbers in 2008 – only the most humonguous idiot could do that….but then you are tat, and more :)…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Laugh all you want.

In 08, the polls showed the same thing and people here said they were wrong. You guys just won’t learn.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:10 AM

The enthusiasm is all of the Republican side. The 2008 turnout in OH was D +5. If we use the 2008 turnout, then Obama is leading by 1. Obama, however, is not going to get his 2008 numbers and Romney is going to do much better than McLame. Many people stayed home. They won’t this year.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Which is why he mentioned D turnout at +4 or +5 in Ohio even though he admits only a +3 turnout nationally because anything less than +4 shows Romney ahead in Ohio.

Hahahaha, talk about desperation.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

“did you see Romney’s national numbers, you compare his current standing to McCain’s numbers in 2008 –”

Yep, and I’ve said here before that I could see Romney squeaking out a popular vote win based on cleaning up in the South and losing the EC.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Which is why he mentioned D turnout at +4 or +5 in Ohio even though he admits only a +3 turnout nationally because anything less than +4 shows Romney ahead in Ohio.

Hahahaha, talk about desperation.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

But, but, but…. the Dim historic GOTV machine in OIHO :)….

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:37 AM

The administration’s cover-up is so much of a scandal, the concern trolls become very quiet when the issue of dead diplomats comes up.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Yeah, funny how that works, isn’t it?

Axelrod/Cutter/Plouffe haven’t been able to provide plausible talking points to them for that.

Right Mover on October 22, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Here in Michigan, totally unscientific lawn sign poll over the weekend had  . . .

GadsdenRattlers on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Every so often someone makes a post like this. Sorry, but looking at lawn signs and bumper stickers is not going to tell you what the result of an election will be.

Dextrous on October 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Right… But I think it does measure enthusiasm. Four years ago the Obama signs were all over the place. They beat McCain ones at least 5-1.

As I stated, it’s totally unscientific, but the our results closely mirror the election outcomes. A group of us have been doing the for 8 years. Even smaller local elections.

Make whatever you will out of it..

GadsdenRattlers on October 22, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I think the national split will be D+3, but the Obama GOTV/early voting machine is the best in history, so in Ohio, it could be Dem +4 or Dem +5.

hmm. Even with this historic GOTV machine Obama could only get +4 in 08. That was with a depressed R base and weak GOTV. Romney’s GOTV ain’t your gummy bear momma’s GOTV!! Have a bowl of intellectual honesty for breakfast!!

1nolibgal on October 22, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Hey gumby, who was it you were voting for again?

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 9:40 AM

My Dad is an extremely committed liberal voter. During one election cycle he spent 45 hours per week campaigning (while working a full time job). 2 weeks after having a stroke, he was back to 35 hours per week of campaigning (and apologizing for not doing more). He would have been back to work too, but the doctor was still ordering rest and, unlike the campaign, his work wouldn’t take him back without medical clearance.

4 years ago he worked his usual 40 per week supporting the election of Barack Obama.

This time around he told the volunteer recruiter, “You’ve got my vote and I’ll volunteer on election day, but, that’s all I can do this year.”

To my knowledge he’s not any busier than he’s ever been previously, so, something is going on that’s got a previously committed volunteer so unenthusiastic that he’ll only bother working the day of the election.

Here’s hoping that secretly he’s not even planning on voting for Obama. I know it’s not likely as he’s the kind that would vote for a frozen turkey if that’s what the Dems were running that year, but, I can always hope that Obama’s worse than a frozen turkey in his eyes.

JadeNYU on October 22, 2012 at 9:44 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Rasmussen has a CO poll coming out in a bit that shows some gains for Mitt since 10/7. #tease
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Oh my…

New Colorado Rasmussen Poll

Romney by +4

ATOM BOMB.

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

And even as they say that party ID doesn’t matter (sure), the internals here are D+6 and Romney is still ahead.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 9:46 AM

It’s sounding very 08 in here with people desperately trying to ignore the polls or spin them as good news.

I remember on election day 08 you had spinmeisters like Hugh Hewitt saying how well McCain was doing in Ohio, how he was meeting all his turnout goals and would win the state. And you guys bought that crap hook, line and sinker. I can’t wait until that happens again and you are all left scratching your heads wondering what went wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Tell us again how Romney doesn’t attend any campaign events, has no ads on TV in the swing states, barely anybody shows up for his appearances, Scott Walker is going to lose the WI recall election.

And oh yeah, how Tommy Thompson is getting “buried” by Baldwin.

@RasmussenPoll

#Wisconsin Senate: #Thompson (R) 48%, #Baldwin (D) 46%… http://tinyurl.com/6vl97qu

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Oh my…

New Colorado Rasmussen Poll

Romney by +4

ATOM BOMB.

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Bwahaha, gumbeyshit harakiri!!!! By popuar demand :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

An Ohio history professor’s analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.

The University of Dayton’s Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.

Still more Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats’ percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year.

Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the state’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.

“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,” he said. “What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.”

The analysis assumes undeclared voters will be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I remember on election day 08 you had spinmeisters like Hugh Hewitt saying how well McCain was doing in Ohio, how he was meeting all his turnout goals and would win the state. And you guys bought that crap hook, line and sinker. I can’t wait until that happens again and you are all left scratching your heads wondering what went wrong.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

You are seriously cherry picking your arguments. Both sides spin when a defeat is looming in the hopes that we get enough voters to still come out not to lose all the down-ticket races. Dems do it, Republicans do it.

That’s a huge difference between that, and looking at the current polls and saying that things are looking good for Romney. Is it still a close race? Yes.

But you keep pretending that Obama has it in the bag – which is ridiculous. You, not us, ignore all of the polls and ignore the differences in voting between 08, 10 and early voting this year to claim “Obama is killing Romney” in early voting and therefore will win this handily. That’s just silly.

Maybe Obama pulls it out – but it is not a forgone conclusion and based on the polls and movement toward Romney, as well as based upon the overwhelming lead Romney has among independents and older voters, plus the lead Romney has in the gender gap, plus Republican enthusiasm versus Dem enthusiasm – my money is on Romney to win.

Sure, Obama may pull it out with GOTV. However, that seems unlikely. The GOP has had a good GOTV effort – with the exception of 2008 – for years. The dems – despite what you imply – do not have a significant advantage in GOTV. If both sides get their people to the polls, then it comes down to independents, which are going for Romney.

So, your hope is basically that republican voters stay home, Obama gets all of the dems out to vote, that all of the Dems vote for Obama – and that those votes are enough to overcome advantage Romney has in independent votes.

From where a rational person sits, Obama has a higher hill to climb than Romney does. Obama needs absolutely everything to fall his way, while Romney just needs things to pan out the way the polls are saying they will. It is not impossible for Obama, but it is less likely.

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I’m still scared about the election.

Illinidiva on October 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in OhioOiho!

You’re 100% right, in Obama’s make believe 57th state Oiho where republicans are 26% of the electorate and the democrats have a 9 point advantage then yes Romney has no chance.

In the real world Ohio, the one in which I live, where the parties will be close in turnout and Romney is yet again winning independents big, not so much. This poll simply confirms what I’ve been saying, in real Ohio Romney wins by 2-4.

Now that’s Mittmentum.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I remember on election day 08 you had spinmeisters like Hugh Hewitt saying…
gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:28 AM

‘You’???? who is ‘you’? I thought you were one of us :), a conservative who supported Santorum in the primaries :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Oh my…

New Colorado Rasmussen Poll

Romney by +4

ATOM BOMB.

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Maybe Colorado isn’t the lost cause I’d pegged it as. Makes you wonder what kind of a lost opportunity it was though in 2010 thanks to the idiot Republicans in that state who screwed up the governor’s race.

Anyway, if Romney picks up WI and CO, OH becomes almost a non-issue. Although I have a hard time imagining him winning WI and CO which Obama won by far bigger margins than OH in 2008 and not also picking up the latter.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

“Oh my…

New Colorado Rasmussen Poll

Romney by +4

ATOM BOMB.

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Bwahaha, gumbeyshit harakiri!!!! By popuar demand :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM”

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

But, but, but…. the Dim historic GOTV machine in OIHO :)….

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Yeah, someone better tell gumby that Ohio just purged the voter rolls of over 400,000 names because they moved, were fraudulent, or are deceased.

So much for that historic GOTV.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Monkeytoe on October 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Excellent, rational analysis!!

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Rasmussen tracking today, incorporating weekend numbers that usually favor Dems

Romney 49 Barry 47, Romney maintains his +2.
Barry got no bounce from the second debate.

bayview on October 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Yeah, someone better tell gumby that Ohio just purged the voter rolls of over 400,000 names because they moved, were fraudulent, or are deceased.

So much for that historic GOTV.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Obviously pokeyshit didn’t get that memo…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Anyway, if Romney picks up WI and CO, OH becomes almost a non-issue. Although I have a hard time imagining him winning WI and CO which Obama won by far bigger margins than OH in 2008 and not also picking up the latter.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I wish they’d focus primarily on WI and forget about PA and MI. If any blue state is going to flip, it’ll be WI…PA and MI would only do so if it were a wave election, which isn’t what we’re seeing.

If he’s winning the popular vote by at least a few points, I find it hard to believe OH wouldn’t flip to him too. But, multiple paths to 270 would be his best bet.

changer1701 on October 22, 2012 at 9:56 AM

I’ve lived in this house for 17 years. I have never, here in deep blue gimme gimme gimme City, EVER had a Republican show up at my door. This year I have had Romney people come by 4 times minimum along with Republican senate, congressional, and city council candidates.

I have been called not once or twice as in past elections but EVERYDAY at least once. Yesterday, Romney people called me to make sure that I knew where my polling place was. They weren’t satisfied with “Yes, I do” but wanted me to TELL them where I thought it was and check it off that I did indeed know. (Told them I’d physically battle 1000 Malik Shabazzes all the way there and drag my beaten bloodied body inch by inch to the booth if it were the last thing I ever did–that seemed to satisfy them).

So any “legendary voter turnout machine” anywhere else (I’m in a swing state) pales in comparison to this new one here in deep Blueville by this Romney machine. Romney makes John McCain look like he was a write-in candidate for dog-catcher.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Hey gumby, who you voting for?

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 9:57 AM

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/The Harvard School for My Little Progressive Ponyland Political Studies poll results:

State 51: Bashfulia: O: 97%, R: 1%, Other: 2%

State 52: DocMaartenia: O: 99, R: 0, Other: 1

State 53: Sleepyshire: O: 100, R: 0

State 54: Sneezyland: O: 98, R: .5, Other: 1.5

State 55: Dopeyota: O: 100, R: 0

State 56: Grumpyork: O: 99, R: 0, Other: 1

State 57: Happyippi: O: 100, R: 0

Sample: 89,999/2/5,551 – hey, it’s gumbyandpokeyland so don’t you worry your pretty little head about the math — with a MOE of 0.000094%.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Anyway, if Romney picks up WI and CO, OH becomes almost a non-issue. Although I have a hard time imagining him winning WI and CO which Obama won by far bigger margins than OH in 2008 and not also picking up the latter.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Romney picks up WI and CO, then he already has OH.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

It means everything, t’s called Mittmentum :)…your boy doesn’thave that, not even in OIHO :) I know you count on voter fraud in Ohio, guess that’s what you mean by the ‘historic Dim vote machine’, but hey, there’s a limit to how many vites they can manufacture and steal…and this time it won’t be enough to save your boy’s sorry azz :)..

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:00 AM

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/The Harvard School for My Little Progressive Ponyland Political Studies poll results:

State 51: Bashfulia: O: 97%, R: 1%, Other: 2%

State 52: DocMaartenia: O: 99, R: 0, Other: 1

State 53: Sleepyshire: O: 100, R: 0

State 54: Sneezyland: O: 98, R: .5, Other: 1.5

State 55: Dopeyota: O: 100, R: 0

State 56: Grumpyork: O: 99, R: 0, Other: 1

State 57: Happyippi: O: 100, R: 0

Sample: 89,999/2/5,551 – hey, it’s gumbyandpokeyland so don’t you worry your pretty little head about the math — with a MOE of 0.000094%.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

ROFLMAO!!!!!

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Votes that is….

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I think Mitts got this and hope he can put it away. Its going to be interesting to see how the pres spins the disaster that is the middle east. Dont think blaming Bush and spiking the ball on Bin Laden is gonna fly.

ldbgcoleman on October 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Scary you are sounding like Barry. When he says “I’ve always said” it means Barry has not always said. When Barry says “let me be clear” he throws spin and lies at you.
Poked by gumby you have not always said “CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.” Being from Iowa I have paid attention. I remember very recently you said Barry was going to win Iowa because of the great GOTV the Dems have there and the GOP have a terrible GOTV.

IowaWoman on October 22, 2012 at 10:04 AM

If Romney picks up WI and CO, then he already has OH.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

That’s how I see it. He probably also has NH.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I wish they’d focus primarily on WI and forget about PA and MI. If any blue state is going to flip, it’ll be WI…PA and MI would only do so if it were a wave election, which isn’t what we’re seeing.

If he’s winning the popular vote by at least a few points, I find it hard to believe OH wouldn’t flip to him too. But, multiple paths to 270 would be his best bet.

changer1701 on October 22, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Romney has enough money to compete in many places. With FL, VA, and CO in Romney’s column and with OH basically there Romney is done. He should spend some money and make an effort in old Republican areas of blue states like WI, MI, and PA. He may not win them but that is the basis of expanding the map for republicans in the future.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

“Anyway, if Romney picks up WI and CO, OH becomes almost a non-issue. Although I have a hard time imagining him winning WI and CO which Obama won by far bigger margins than OH in 2008 and not also picking up the latter.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Romney picks up WI and CO, then he already has OH.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM”

Romney won’t win WI. Obama is more popular here than in the nation as a whole. Even when Walker was way ahead in his recall polls, the same data showed Obama winning by 6 or so. Just hope he keeps it close so Thompson can get a narrow win.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Ohio. Won’t. Matter. Period.

spinach.chin on October 22, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Romney has enough money to compete in many places. With FL, VA, and CO in Romney’s column and with OH basically there Romney is done. He should spend some money and make an effort in old Republican areas of blue states like WI, MI, and PA. He may not win them but that is the basis of expanding the map for republicans in the future.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Agreed.

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

“Ohio CBS NYT Quinnipiac today

O 50
R 45″

Yep, Mitt’s got tons of momentum in OhioOiho!

LOL. Sure. Trust any poll from CBS or NYT (Bwahahahahaha) or Quinnipiac (snort).

Here is their Party ID breakdown (lol)

Rep 26%
Dem 35%
Indep 34%
Other 3%
N/A 1%

Nothing like a D+9 poll from the NYT to give Obama a 5% lead. Why do people fall for this crap?

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Scary you are sounding like Barry. When he says “I’ve always said” it means Barry has not always said. When Barry says “let me be clear” he throws spin and lies at you.
Poked by gumby you have not always said “CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.” Being from Iowa I have paid attention. I remember very recently you said Barry was going to win Iowa because of the great GOTV the Dems have there and the GOP have a terrible GOTV.

IowaWoman on October 22, 2012 at 10:04 AM
Explain this lie poked by gumby

IowaWoman on October 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Right… But I think it does measure enthusiasm. Four years ago the Obama signs were all over the place.

I don’t want to start a riot of Comments on sightings of Obama vs. Romney signs and bumper stickers. But I think it is noteworthy that in San Francisco I walked the streets for hours yesterday and didn’t see a single Obama sign in any window or home. I’m sure they’re out there, but nothing compared to 2008 when SF was littered with pro-Obama signage.

bobs1196 on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

From the other thread…

DRI of 35-26-34 adds up to … 95% (could be a bit more accounting for rounding effects). But still well short of 100. Who are the others? Is that where Obama’s 5% “lead” comes from?

jwolf on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Hahahaha, how about that Gumby. Wow the desperation is incredibly thick in the media and the dem circles.

HAHAHAHAHA, this is awesome.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

On Drudge: CO: R 50% O 46%… DEVELOPING…

Norky on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Romney wins both Colorado and Iowa, he will win Ohio. Ohio is not yet Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan, i.e., more blue than red or more purple than red. Ohioans are actually still more like their brethren in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, etc.

Listen, this is not 2008.

Romney isn’t going to win CA, but there is a lesson to learn there. In 2008, Obama won by 24 points. He is leading now by 15 while Feinstein’s lowest lead is, you guessed it, 24 points. He’s lost 9 points.

Obama lost Missouri by 0.1% in 2008. Romney is +11 today in Missouri, which was once the ultimate battleground state. He’s lost 11 points.

Romney isn’t going to win Oregon, but Obama won it by 17 in 2008. He is only winning it by 7 today. He’s lost 10 points.

Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points. He is leading in the latest poll by 2, which is within the MOE. He’s lost 12.

Obama won Virginia by 6, Nevada by 13, Colorado by 9, Iowa by 10, New Hampshire by 10, and Ohio by 4. None of that is true this year.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Who are you voting for gumby? Can you tell us? You know, for the record.

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:18 AM

The NYT poll also has 6% of VERY CONSERVATIVE voting for Obama.
BWAHAHA.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

A reminder about how credible gumby is on Wisconsin:

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.

The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

Walker is a goner…

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Actually he won Ohio by 3.5% and since then Ohio has elected a Republican Senator, Governor, and several Republican Congressmen including one to replace Phil Hare out of some blue collar area –he was the one who said he “didn’t care about the Constitution.”

It’s not 2008, we aren’t running John McCain, Obama has a record, and 2010 happened—and it wasn’t pretty for the losers on the left.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Barack Obama and his allies promised to make this election about the 47%, and so far they’re succeeding — but in a much different way than they expected.

News from 16 days from now:

Last night Gov. Romney defeated Pres. Obama to become the 45th president of the Unites States, with the former MA governor winning the swing states of North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada, for a total of 301 electoral votes. Counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania is continuing this morning as the president holds on to the slimmest of leads in those states.

Romney scored a popular vote victory of 52% to the president’s 47%.

In other news, Governor Romney is sending condolences to the family of MSNBC personality Chris Matthews, whose head exploded last night shortly after the network declared Romney the winner. Matthews’s final screams were “47%! 47%!! 47%!!!!!11!!1!ELEVENTY!!!!1!”

JimLennon on October 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Nothing like a D+9 poll from the NYT to give Obama a 5% lead. Why do people fall for this crap?

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

The same poll (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac) had Obama with a 10 point lead in Ohio last month with a 35/26/35 sample.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Slightly O/T

Rasmussen has new poll showing Thompson ahead in Wisconsin: 48-46

About time.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

“The NYT poll also has 6% of VERY CONSERVATIVE voting for Obama.
BWAHAHA.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM”

That could be the Mormon issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Anyone see Debbie Downer’s latest hairstyle? She looks like Medusa.

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Gumby…who are you voting for for President?

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:40 AM

A reminder about how credible gumby is on Wisconsin:

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.

The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

Walker is a goner…

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Oy, the infallible WI Dem GOVT machine :)…oups, I meant ‘historic’….

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:41 AM

For all of the talk about Early Voting, I discovered this little nugget in the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll from last month that gave Obama a 10 point lead in Ohio with a D +9 (I’m including the numbers on FL & PA, too):

Question 9:

(FL & OH)Do you think you’ll vote on Election Day, or do you think you will vote by mail or absentee ballot or will you vote at an early voting location?

(PA) Do you think you’ll vote on Election Day, or do you think you will vote by mail or absentee ballot? (na = not asked)

OH:

Vote on Election Day: 67
Absentee/Mail in: 23
Early voting location: 8
Don’t know/not applicable: 2

PA:

Vote on Election Day: 94
Absentee/Mail in: 5
Early voting location: na
Don’t know/not applicable: 1

FL:

Vote on Election Day: 58
Absentee/Mail in: 19
Early voting location: 21
Don’t know/not applicable: 3

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:44 AM

“The NYT poll also has 6% of VERY CONSERVATIVE voting for Obama.
BWAHAHA.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM”

That could be the Mormon issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Hahah, yeah, coz someone associated with Jeremiah Wright and suspected by many to be a closeted Muslim, and by others to be an atheist – would naturally win 6% of the very con vote :) ….I mean, yeah, I can see how the very con would prefer that to a Mormon loool :) you really are the dumbest human being who has ever set foot on earth :)..

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

That could be the Mormon issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Billy Graham has endorsed Romney. Southern Baptist Convention leader Richard Land endorsed Romney. Evangelicals overwhelmingly support Romney.

Believe me, there is less fear of Romney’s Mormonism than there is of the persistent belief that Obama is a Muslim (a belief to which I do not subscribe). Mormon beats Muslim every single time.

As polls have demonstrated, the people with the biggest problem with Romney’s Mormonism are on the Left.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

“The NYT poll also has 6% of VERY CONSERVATIVE voting for Obama.
BWAHAHA.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM”

That could be the Mormon issue.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Or, maybe they are ‘very conservative’ like you are :)…a staunch Santorum supporter lol :) ,

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Gawd, HokeyPokey how much is the Owebama campaign paying you to be such a little prick??? It’s not working for them. They should get a refund whatever it is.

DanaSmiles on October 22, 2012 at 11:04 AM

A reminder about how credible gumby is on Wisconsin:

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.
It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.
The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.
Walker is a goner…
gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Yep. I can’t believe anyone believed that the Obama supporter GumbyandPokey was a conservative. This person posts nothing but comments meant to demoralize Republicans. He thinks that by pretending to be conservative more people will be influenced by his pro-Obama spam. Gumby has admitted this before, but people continue to fall for it. Sigh. Reminds me of the audience for the Phil Hendrie show when Phil would pretend to e different characters and fool the callers.

bluegill on October 22, 2012 at 11:06 AM

“Ras:

R 49

O 47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 11:10 AM”

Interesting thing about the Rasmussen poll is that Independents are tied.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 11:23 AM

turnout.

PappyD61 on October 22, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Romney makes John McCain look like he was a write-in candidate for dog-catcher.

McCain ran his campaign in ’08 like he was running for dog-catcher…..and he didn’t seem to care one way or the other if he won or lost.

Romney is running enthusiastically like he really wants to win the presidency and he and his campaign show it.

hawkeye54 on October 22, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Gawd, HokeyPokey how much is the Owebama campaign paying you to be such a little prick??? It’s not working for them. They should get a refund whatever it is.

DanaSmiles on October 22, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I think he volunteers from his mother’s basement and he does it to ‘demoralize’ the cons and depress their vote turnout lol :) , or so he thinks anyways :)…they don’t pay the really dumb ones…though on second thought…..Stephanie Cutter… :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Wow, wonder how the endorsement of Obama by Chavez, Castro and Putin will affect Romney’s lead in the polls, cuz ya’ know those were the endorsements I was breathlessly waiting to hear.

stukinIL4now on October 22, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Via @JimPethokoukis: Obama’s chances to win Ohio are down to 55% on InTrade, an 8.2% drop for today alone: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745813

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Obama’s up 50/46 with women, 61/33 with Hispanics, 85/9 with African Americans, and 50/39 with young voters nationally:

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

Brutal PPP Ntnl poll for Obama. Romney +10 w Indies, +4 own party, +3 cross party: Requires 08 turnout to avoid blowout http://ow.ly/1P69VZ

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Interesting thing about the Rasmussen poll is that Independents are tied.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, every time you post your mask slips just a little more.

You never post anything positive about Romney’s gains. Any time he shows gain in any poll, you immediately find the only negative aspect pertaining to Romney, and then you usually post a giant over reaction to it.

We all know who and what you are.

Also, I notice that you don’t address the post above about your comments on Walker…funny that.

ShadowsPawn on October 22, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Is it just me or does the media(besides Fox) like to cling to the polls that favor Obama the most and ignore the others?

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Wow, wonder how the endorsement of Obama by Chavez, Castro and Putin will affect Romney’s lead in the polls, cuz ya’ know those were the endorsements I was breathlessly waiting to hear.

stukinIL4now on October 22, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Am sure O’s base are v happy with it, and they probably think the above endorsements are a good thing for O :)…as for the rest, low info voters & all, they probably don’t even pay attention….

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 11:51 AM

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, every time you post your mask slips just a little more.

You never post anything positive about Romney’s gains. Any time he shows gain in any poll, you immediately find the only negative aspect pertaining to Romney, and then you usually post a giant over reaction to it.

We all know who and what you are.

Also, I notice that you don’t address the post above about your comments on Walker…funny that.

ShadowsPawn on October 22, 2012 at 11:43 AM

And he’ll dive into the internals as deep as needed to find any negative nugget that shows Romney is in trouble, but he totally ignores the fact that the Ohio poll that shows Obama up by 5% only equals 95% when the splits are added up.

Hahahaha, he’s such a moron.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Mittmentum: New Ohio Polls Better Than They Appear

By Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher

Two new Ohio polls came out yesterday after my Ohio post, from from Gravis Marketing and PPP, both of which point to a razor-thin race in the most coveted swing state. A closer look at each poll shows just how much Romney has gained since the debates, and why he would be absolutely thrilled if these polls were accurate on Election Day.

The poll from Gravis Marketing shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent. But that’s as good as it gets for Obama. Among the most interesting tidbits from the poll:

* R lead O by 19 among independents, 52–33, and holds 92% of his base compared to O’s 87%.

* O is underwater in job approval, 44–50, and independents disapprove of him overwhelmingly, 31–58.

* And the poll has a D +9, which is a +4 jump from 2008 — no one believes that Democrats can match their 2008 turnout advantage, let alone almost double it.

PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:

* This week’s poll has a D +8 sample; last week’s advantage was D +4.

* R gained 4 on O in a week despite the sample’s having 4 points more Democrats.

* R leads with independents by 7, up from 5 last week.

* O’s approval is underwater at 48–50, and independents disapprove of him by a 41–54 margin. Last week O was in positive approval ground at 50–48, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 45–50 margin.

* R’s favorability has gone from a -6 margin last week (45–51) to a +2 this week (49–47).

* Trust on the economy went from O +5 last week (51–46) to +4 in R’s direction this week (51–47). Independents jumped from R +5 last week to R +15 this week.

These two polls highlight what many saw in the second debate: Romney may have lost the overall debate, but he won handily on the issues of the economy, debt, and taxes. While Democrats were riding high this week after Obama narrowly won the face-off, Romney was quietly solidifying support from voters by commanding the issues that matter most. Based on these two polls, the only way Obama can win Ohio is if he finds a way to greatly surpass 2008 turnout with Democrats, which at the moment seems like an impossible task. If these polls hold, it won’t be long before the state Romney was declared dead in knocks down the last pillar of inevitability that Obama has left.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Question to Nate “house effect” Silver. How’s that Gallup poll looking now? How about an article on how IBD/TIPP is a crazy outlier? I won’t hold my breath.

besser tot als rot on October 22, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Romney is running enthusiastically like he really wants to win the presidency and he and his campaign show it.

hawkeye54 on October 22, 2012 at 11:24 AM

That was one my of big concerns about Romney going through the primaries. He has certainly proved his mettle in that regard.

besser tot als rot on October 22, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Forget the polls for a moment, how’s this for a predicter?

Walt Disney World is already working on a Mitt Romney figure for its Hall of Presidents in anticipation of his winning the election

Fun to think about, considering Mickey Mouse is planning on voting for Obama multiple times…

right of the dial on October 22, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Gallup Today:

Romney: 51

Obama: 45

+6

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Michelle Obama today:

CNSNews.com) – First Lady Michelle Obama encouraged her husband’s supporters to vote early, because you may find your “toilet overflowing” on Election Day.

Your toilet will be overflowing, but it will be the sound of trying to flush that big turd obama down the drain

audiotom on October 22, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Why on earth would Washington Times team up with Zogby? That is nonsensical.

besser tot als rot on October 22, 2012 at 3:19 PM

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