Romney closing in on Obama in Ohio in CBS/Q-poll

posted at 10:01 am on October 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Lots of buzz about the latest CBS News/Quinnipiac poll in Ohio, taken after the second debate, and especially about its methodology.  Let’s take a look at the toplines first, which despite the rather silly sample shows Mitt Romney with the momentum in the Buckeye State:

President Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio, but that margin has been cut in half since September, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll.

Mr. Obama holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely voters in the Buckeye State, down from a 53 to 43 percent advantage on Sept. 26. Three percent of likely voters there are undecided.

A gender gap persists: President Obama still has a double-digit advantage among women, 55 to 40 percent (down from a 60 to 35 percent lead in the September poll), while Romney leads with men.

The president enjoys a 15-point lead with women, while Romney is ahead by seven points among men, 51 to 44 percent, virtually unchanged from last month. Mr. Obama has a nearly two to one lead with unmarried women, but married women are more divided in their vote preferences.

I’m inclined to think that Ohio is going to be close all the way to the election.  But I’m also inclined to think that the electorate will be more than 26% Republican.  That’s the sample in this poll, which has a laughable D/R/I of 35/26/34.  In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28.  We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline.  That was his margin of victory in 2008 in Ohio, by the way, but Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in that election.  In this poll, he’s down seven points, a fifteen-point flip in the gap.  That’s the most telling indicator thus far, and the one that cuts through the sampling biases.

I’m inclined to wait for better sampling to determine which direction Ohio may go, but at least the CBS/Q-poll confirms that momentum has swung Romney’s way in the state.


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Hey gumby, what about this poll only equalling 95% when the splits are added up?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 12:10 PM

They said he was banned…I missed that post…

right2bright on October 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Rasmussen – IA – O 48, R – 48

brut4ce on October 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Rhetorical question; Why is it Mr. or President Obama but just plain ol’ Romney?

oldernwiser on October 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Hey gumby, who do you support for President?

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

I favor a constitutional amendment outlawing the publication of election polling.

besser tot als rot on October 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Was just sitting here thinking about how nice it will be to watch my first Presidential address in over four years.

Urban Cowbuck on October 22, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Via @JimPethokoukis: Obama’s chances to win Ohio are down to 55% on InTrade, an 8.2% drop for today alone: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745813

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Folks, please stop quoting intrade as some type of strong predictor on who is going to win the elections. These idiots at intrade just follow the stupid polls and make their stupid bets… They have zero information except the public polls… When the polls get it right they get it right and when the polls get it wrong they get it wrong…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 12:32 PM

I know a guy who’s high up in politics in oiho and Obama’s winning by at least 6 points. Oh I’m a Romneys supporter too but he needs to give it up.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

LOL

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 12:32 PM

I know a guy who’s high up in politics in oiho and Obama’s winning by at least 6 points. Oh I’m a Romneys supporter too but he needs to give it up.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Both of you are either idiots, liars, or both…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 12:35 PM

I know a guy who’s high up in politics in oiho and Obama’s winning by at least 6 points. Oh I’m a Romneys supporter too but he needs to give it up.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Both of you are either idiots, liars, or both…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Unless of course you were being sarcastic…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

New Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun:
Romney – 48
Zero – 45

Haven’t looked at the internals yet – but this is looking like a good polling day for Mitt.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 12:35 PM

I’m pretty sure he was joking.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 12:37 PM

that new Monmouth poll is a D+4. If I’m reading it right, Mitt is leading independents in the poll by a whopping 19%.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Alas, we’ve hit the point where the gumbys have reached such self-parody that the sarcastic gumby impersonators can no longer be easily identified…

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Ras:

47% Say U.S. Economy is Getting Worse (the remaining is split between getting better, remains the same, no opinion)

48% Know Someone Who’s Quit Looking for Work in Bad Job Market

41% Think the Job Market is Worse Today Than One Year Ago (21 better)

49% Think America Weaker Today Than It Was Four Years Ago (29 0 stronger, 18 – same)

57% Are More Likely to Buy A Ford Because Of the GM Bailout (8 – more, 32 – no diff)

58% Think Government Workers Make More Than Those in Private Sector

52% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

53% Are Confident in Stability of Banking System

23% Believe Today’s Children Will Be Better Off Than Their Parents

44% Think Fed Chairman Influenced by President (41 say Bernanke has too much power, 6 – too much, 38 – about right, 15 – no opinion)

Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 48%

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 48%

Swing State Tracking: Romney 49%, Obama 46%

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 12:45 PM

New Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun:
Romney – 48
Zero – 45

Haven’t looked at the internals yet – but this is looking like a good polling day for Mitt.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

The internals are +4 Dem
443Rep 485Ind 465Dem

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Bad for an incumbent

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Social cons have bedrock values and principles, founding on things more important than money, and are better at doing what people gripe about Republicans not doing; taking a stand and holding to it.

Freelancer on October 22, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Nicely put! And true.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Social cons have bedrock values and principles,

And everyone else is a wimp? Clown.

founding on things more important than money,

Money is not the most important thing always. Money/economics is the most important thing right now because our nation is about to go bankrupt?

By the way, how’s your effort at repealing Roe going?

MelonCollie on October 22, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Best part of the Monmouth poll by far:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Monmouth poll on second debate: Among those who changed votes because of SECOND debate (7%): 57% moved to Romney and 32% moved to Obama.

Recall gumby climaxing 12 times on that 2nd debate thread that the election was over.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Gallup 51-45 today.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:01 PM

New Gallup Poll…Sunday sample rolled off.

Romney: 51%
Obama: 45%

ATOM BOMB.

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 1:02 PM

GALLUP DISASTER FOR ROMNEY TODAY!

As predicted, the HUGE Romney day from a week ago finally rolled off the Gallup 7 day moving average today and the results are BAD NEWS for Romney!

He falls back to a 6 point lead instead of a 7 point lead.

Good times :)

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Gallup Today:

Romney: 51

Obama: 45

+6

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Recall gumby climaxing 12 times on that 2nd debate thread that the election was over.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 12:59 PM

That is a devastating figure for Obama. The Monmouth poll also shows Romney gaining in every issue since the second debate.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 1:04 PM

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Gallup: 51-45
RCP: Romney +0.6, even with yesterday’s IBD/TIPP garbage still in the mix.
Atomic.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:05 PM

It doesn’t matter how big a lead someone has in a single day (outlier), in a 7 day average it smooths out. The Left’s hope losing that Sunday would bring Romney back to Earth on Gallup was never realistic.

Look at all the new polls using a Dem +5 sample today showing Romney ahead by 2 or more. Adjust those to a realistic sample and they look just like Gallup or better.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Lol Romney still huge in Gallup.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 1:06 PM

More good news. Gallup staying strong despite a big Romney day rolling off:

Gallup – National

R 51
O 45

And KABOOM!

Suffolk U – Ohio

Romney 47
Obama 47

Great day of polls, again.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Heh. Should have figured you’d beat me to the line with the gumby quote. Well done.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:07 PM

The important number than cannot be hidden by a big Dem sample in these polls?

Romney is CRUSHING IT with Independents. There is simply NO WAY Obama loses Independents by solid double digits and wins. No way.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 1:07 PM

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

So, do you admit you were wrong about Gallup?

ShadowsPawn on October 22, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Heh. Should have figured you’d beat me to the line with the gumby quote. Well done.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:07 PM

I put that bullet in the chamber as soon as he posted it yesterday!!!

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Whenever gumballs makes a strong claim, rule of thumb is that the opposite happens. IE Obama bounce = Romney bounce.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Gallup: 51-45
RCP: Romney +0.6, even with yesterday’s IBD/TIPP garbage still in the mix.
Atomic.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Haha well played. gumby’s worst enemy is copy-paste

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Couple problems with TIPP:

1) They are tiny obscure pollster. I mean, just look at their website. It is pathetic.
2) Their daily sample for a 7 day moving average poll is ridiculously small.
3) There is not a single other poll which confirms their trend if a surge towards Obama.
4) Their stipulation that Obama now wins MEN by 2 is just laughable.

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 1:10 PM

GALLUP DISASTER FOR ROMNEY TODAY!

As predicted, the HUGE Romney day from a week ago finally rolled off the Gallup 7 day moving average today and the results are BAD NEWS for Romney!

He falls back to a 6 point lead instead of a 7 point lead.

Good times :)

The thing is there was a lot of outlier days with Romney far ahead of Obama not just one. Once they fade away Obama will be +1 to +3 like the rest of the polls.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Romney/Obama tied in new Reuters/Ipsos Online Poll…46%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/22/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121022

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 1:13 PM

The thing is there was a lot of outlier days with Romney far ahead of Obama not just one. Once they fade away Obama will be +1 to +3 like the rest of the polls.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Great, Gumby part deux duh.

Mitsouko on October 22, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Right. So, when you unskew this crap of a poll, Mitt’s in the lead! The desperation in the Obama Enemy media, to cover for their Marxist Messiah, is reaching, never before seen levels! The Anti-psychotics these clowns have to have been put on could take down a Mad Charging African Bull Elephant and yet, it doesn’t seem to affect these Desperate Water Carriers, for Obama! Who’s going to be keeping an eye on these clowns Nov.6th. They really need to be on Suicide Watch! All kidding aside, we do have to start treating this Enemy media, like the Anti-American jihadis, they are! Like jihadis, if you don’t hit them back hard, they will only be emboldened & encouraged for the next time they attack you(By You, I mean Republicans). This is how to take them on: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 22, 2012 at 1:15 PM

The thing is there was a lot of outlier days with Romney far ahead of Obama not just one. Once they fade away Obama will be +1 to +3 like the rest of the polls.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 1:11 PM

What “rest of polls” have Obama up now? You mean Rasmussen, which has Romney up nationally and in battlegrounds? Monmouth today which is Romney +3? Politico/GWU/Battleground which has Romney +2? Even NBC/WSJ has them tied.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Romney/Obama tied in new Reuters/Ipsos Online Poll…46%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/22/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121022

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 1:13 PM

LOL at their state level polling:

Ipsos projects that Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a total of 325 electoral votes to Romney’s 213 electoral votes.

Obama is going to win Florida and Virginia?

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 1:17 PM

I put that bullet in the chamber as soon as he posted it yesterday!!!

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Same here, popped it right into notepad. Certainly we aren’t the only ones. As the others just mentioned above when gumby predicts it, it’s a lock the other way, so there’s value in hanging on to those gems.

I only wish he had more of an interest in sports. Hey gumbo, you like Michigan St plus the points this weekend? Because I’m looking at Montee Ball and the Badgers -7…

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Romney/Obama tied in new Reuters/Ipsos Online Poll…46%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/22/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121022

sentinelrules on October 22, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Ignore online “polls”, because they never have a random sample.

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 1:19 PM

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 1:11 PM

New Axelrod Sleeper Cell activation?

Say Hi to Play-Doh for me!

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Ipsos projects that Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a total of 325 electoral votes to Romney’s 213 electoral votes.

So, Obama has basically conceded Florida, and if you read between the lines, Virginia as well, but Ipsos is still giving it to Obama? How are pollsters not embarassed to release this crap?

milcus on October 22, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Romney Crushing Obama with Independents in New Monmouth Poll

A new Monmouth University poll carries more bad news for the Obama campaignadministration (that’s not a typo). Nationally, Mitt Romney now leads 48-45. That’s a flip from mid-September, when Obama led by the same margin. Five percent remain undecided.

The poll finds that about 12% of likely voters in the sample have already voted nationally, and Romney leads among them 44-41. The gender gap has also closed dramatically after the first debate, with Obama leading by just four points among women while Romney leads by 11 points among men.

It’s among independent voters, though, where Obama is weakest. According to the poll, the first presidential debate changed the race considerably. Romney leads by 19 points among independent voters, 52-33. He has a +22 point favorable rating among independents (compared to Obama’s -15 favorability).

Romney leads by 23 points on the economy and jobs, and he leads by 19 points on handling Social Security and Medicare. That last is an indictment both of Obama’s failure to do anything to reform them, and of his campaign’s tactic of trying to scare seniors into believing that Romney will threaten them. That attack has not worked.

On the federal budget and national debt, Romney leads by 28 points among independents. Romney also enjoys a 10 point advantage over Obama on foreign policy, which was supposed to be the president’s cornerstone issue until the 9-11 attacks in Egypt in Libya.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 1:23 PM

So the media thinks when a tiny obscure poll like TIPP shows a big Obama lead, it is normal.

But when a huge respected poll like Gallup shows a Romney lead, it is an outlier.

Anyone else find this logic hard to grasp?

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 1:23 PM

If you want to see some stone cold denial, look at Nate Silver‘s state level polling on the right side of the site. Just scroll down a little bit. On states like New Hampshire, he’s still incorporating polls from Sept 14th (click More and see the weights he’s using). I mean, that’s just insane and is clearly done in an attempt to tweak the numbers. He’s got the same weight on the 10/11 poll from American Research Group (Romney +4%) that he does on the 9/25 poll NBC/Marist (Obama +7%).

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 1:27 PM

What “rest of polls” have Obama up now? You mean Rasmussen, which has Romney up nationally and in battlegrounds? Monmouth today which is Romney +3? Politico/GWU/Battleground which has Romney +2? Even NBC/WSJ has them tied.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 1:17 PM

That would be the “Axeldouche/Nanzi/Reid” poll. You know, the “you have to fake the numbers before you can know what’s in them” poll…the commies LOVE that poll.

Strike Hornet on October 22, 2012 at 1:30 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Suffolk has a tied race in Ohio at, of course, 47%. Sample is D+4. Sample voted for Obama in 08 by 6% (he won by 5%).

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 1:35 PM

It’s obvious now Axelrod is trying to win this election through fake polls, memes, viral videos, and social media. Basically trying to win the unproductive internet junkie vote. I doubt it’s going to work.

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Suffolk has a tied race in Ohio at, of course, 47%. Sample is D+4. Sample voted for Obama in 08 by 6% (he won by 5%).

Yep: 39% D / 35% R / 27% I

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 1:40 PM

yeah the DRI on the Suffolk was 39/35/27.

brut4ce on October 22, 2012 at 1:42 PM

That would be the “Axeldouche/Nanzi/Reid” poll. You know, the “you have to fake the numbers before you can know what’s in them” poll…the commies LOVE that poll.

Strike Hornet on October 22, 2012 at 1:30 PM

At this point I think the Dems are circling the wagons and are going all in on the TIPP poll. You know, the one that is D+7 nationally, has Obama winning Men by 1, and winning 22% of conservatives.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Does anybody know what the D/R/I was in the latest Rassmusen poll that has Obama up 1 in Ohio? All these silly D+9 and such don’t worry me but it’s a little worrying to see that Ras still has teh O up one in Ohio.

dczombie on October 22, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Here’s some additional good news from Suffolk:

They have early voters O+13 and day-of voters R+3. But they use that same 20% early voter rate that’s been debunked ad nauseum. The number of Ohioans that have turned in ballots is 8%

Fix that number and Romney’s ahead by about 1.5 over the poll’s baseline.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 1:54 PM

It’s interesting. I remember when Axelfraud was saying that Obama had a very, very good chance of winning Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri…along with keeping all of his 2008 wins. How political fortunes have changed…

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 2:02 PM

More bad news for Clayboy:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Ipsos/Reuters online poll is tied at 46%. Was O+3 over the weekend. Romney leads indys by 10. Sample is D+5.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

IBD/Tipp poll tightens to O+4. Romney leads indys by 11. Sample is D+7. 885 voters over 7 days.

O’s national poll #s today are:

47, 45, 47, 45, 46, 47, 47

That’d 46.3 average.

Awful, awful numbers for an incumbent 2 weeks out.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 2:04 PM

At this point I think the Dems are circling the wagons and are going all in on the TIPP poll. You know, the one that is D+7 nationally, has Obama winning Men by 1, and winning 22% of conservatives.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Bad news for the Dems

TIPP is back to +4 Obama today.
Obama 47.4% | Romney 43.4%

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Bad news for the Dems

TIPP is back to +4 Obama today.
Obama 47.4% | Romney 43.4%

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Yep, looking at it now. And this still with a D+7 sample.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 2:08 PM

At this point I think the Dems are circling the wagons and are going all in on the TIPP poll. You know, the one that is D+7 nationally, has Obama winning Men by 1, and winning 22% of conservatives.

TarheelBen on October 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

“Bitterly clinging to their bad polls and binders”

Strike Hornet on October 22, 2012 at 2:08 PM

If you want to see some stone cold denial, look at Nate Silver‘s state level polling on the right side of the site. Just scroll down a little bit. On states like New Hampshire, he’s still incorporating polls from Sept 14th (click More and see the weights he’s using). I mean, that’s just insane and is clearly done in an attempt to tweak the numbers. He’s got the same weight on the 10/11 poll from American Research Group (Romney +4%) that he does on the 9/25 poll NBC/Marist (Obama +7%).

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 1:27 PM

His weak and inconsistent weighting methods are just ridiculous. Compare to his Canadian counterpart, who is actually semi-worthwhile these days (as Silver admittedly used to be when he first started). There they say, actually bothering to give a clear methodology unlike Silver, that during the height of an election poll weighting is decrease by 35% each day. In this age, last week’s poll is old news; a poll from a month ago is completely meaningless…

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Gallup

Romney 51 – Obama 45

Guess that Romney “outlier” day wasn’t all that “outlier”

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Non scientific feel good, let’s hope it means something observation….Spent the weekend in Dayton Ohio in and around the University of Dayton…..Daughter told a story of a professor who in stunned disbelief told her class that a show of hands of support for Romney over President Obama in a previous class was more than 6 to 1 in Romney’s favor.

I observed a lack of a meaningful number of lawn signs for either candidate. Saw many Josh Mandell signs without “sister” Romney signs. Met two couples who have come over from the dark side but no couples who voted for McCain and will now vote for Obama.

Strike Twice on October 22, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Hoo boy:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gravis Marketing has a 3 pt race in PA: Obama 48, Romney 45. Romney leads indys by 2. D+8 sample (was D+7 in 08, D+3 in 2010).

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 2:25 PM

If you want to see some stone cold denial, look at Nate Silver‘s state level polling on the right side of the site. Just scroll down a little bit. On states like New Hampshire, he’s still incorporating polls from Sept 14th (click More and see the weights he’s using). I mean, that’s just insane and is clearly done in an attempt to tweak the numbers. He’s got the same weight on the 10/11 poll from American Research Group (Romney +4%) that he does on the 9/25 poll NBC/Marist (Obama +7%).

strictnein on October 22, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Nate Silver is as much of a clueless troll as Gumby. The guy, and his liberal followers, think he is some poll guru, but the guy has no clue what he is talking about.

Maybe Gumby is Nate Silver. That would make sense.

milcus on October 22, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Social cons have bedrock values and principles,

And everyone else is a wimp? Clown.

founding on things more important than money,

Money is not the most important thing always. Money/economics is the most important thing right now because our nation is about to go bankrupt?

By the way, how’s your effort at repealing Roe going?

MelonCollie on October 22, 2012 at 12:59 PM

1. Social programs/laws/trends affect the fiscal picture. Ex: welfare, amnesty, DADT, free birth control, out of wedlock births etc. The two are inseparable. Even abortion is financed through the feds. Name a single social issue that the left’s side doesn’t cost the tax payer money.

2. Roe is not a law, it is a Supreme Court decision so you mean “overturn” as opposed to “repeal”? No actual conservative wants it to be repealed but rather returned to the states because it is a state matter not a federal one. Abortion is not in the Constitution so is the purview of the states. “The right to privacy” is bull esp in the light of Obamacare.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 3:45 PM

I truly believe Romney is winning bigger than any poll is measuring. My logic:

1) 9% response rate. It was reported that to get 9 response, they have to call 100 people and have 91 hang up. Obamabots are WAY more happy to proclaim their Obama worship. Those against Obama have numerous reasons (fear of being called racist, don’t trust media, want to tweak media, etc) to not talk to pollsters.

2) Enthusiasm is higher on GOP side. Even with my point number 1, the enthusiasm gap is large to the GOP’s benefit. I’d be surprised if nationally we are D+2, and I wouldn’t trust anything better than +1 over 2010 numbers in any swing state to Dems favor (i.e. if was D+2 in 2010, don’t trust D+4 or higher). I returned my absentee ballot the day after I got it (Saturday).

3) Media desperately needs to keep the Dems from getting discouraged. Originally all their polling was to make GOP voters think Obama’s win was fait acompli, so we’d give up. But because of the distrust on our side of the media and polls, we didn’t. Now they fear if they are truly accurate, D+3 max, good demographics for age, etc., the numbers will discourage Obama voters, especially the “bandwagon voters”. If all the polls show Obama getting crushed as bad as Gallup does, they don’t go vote and it’s even worse. That happens and we win 40-45 states, as well as 52+ Senate seats.

4) In order to keep selling their polls to the media, business, etc, the pollsters only need to be right Nov 5 and 6. The closer they are to the real results, the better for them. Right now, they can still push poll and release results they want. It’s a big reason not to trust any polling by CBS, NBC, ABC, etc, because they don’t need the credibility to sell polls to themselves.

Keep fighting though! Get those Senate and Congressional races won for conservatives, because that’s where the real power sits!

PastorJon on October 22, 2012 at 3:55 PM

I sure hope this trend continues and 2 weeks and 27 hours they are able to quickly project that President Elect Romney has carried Ohio. It’s really embarassing to see the polls that suggest my fellow Ohioans might repeat their mistake in 08.

Part of it is John Kasich’s fault for having an impact on unemployment during his first two years here. Still too high, our unemployment rate is about 7% and we’re seeing signs of economic life that went missing shortly after the one’s coronation.

EconomicNeocon on October 22, 2012 at 4:02 PM

This is fun to watch.

Schadenfreude on October 22, 2012 at 4:25 PM

New Hampshire Poll. NHU

O 51
R 42

WTF

bgibbs1000 on October 22, 2012 at 4:35 PM

New Hampshire Poll. NHU

O 51
R 42

WTF

bgibbs1000 on October 22, 2012 at 4:35 PM

LOL. They’re an embarrassment. Look at the numbers. D+4 on the surface – just your every day skew, but then they ask party self-identification and it goes up to a D+10 sample.

If you think WMUR/UNH has hit upon something with Independents breaking hard Democrat contrary to what every worthwhile poll in the country is showing, then yeah, New Hampshire is lost.

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Oh, RuPoll, you were saying???

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican–a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican–only a five point gap.

The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.

–Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20 point shift.

–Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18 point shift.

–Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15 point shift.

–Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) – 6 point shift.

–Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.

–Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10 point shift.

–Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23 point shift.

–Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17 point shift.

–Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6 point shift.

–Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16 point shift.

–Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM – 24 point shift.

–Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17 point shift.

–Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27 point shift.

–Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14 point shift.

–Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27 point shift.

–Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11 point shift.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

2008:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,351,2226
Democrats: 445525 (32.97%)
Republicans: 257936 (19.09%)
Difference: 13.88%

2012:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,047,928
Democrats: 305,670 (29.17%)
Republicans: 236,651 (22.58%)
Difference: 6.59%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:46 PM

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