Romney closing in on Obama in Ohio in CBS/Q-poll

posted at 10:01 am on October 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Lots of buzz about the latest CBS News/Quinnipiac poll in Ohio, taken after the second debate, and especially about its methodology.  Let’s take a look at the toplines first, which despite the rather silly sample shows Mitt Romney with the momentum in the Buckeye State:

President Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio, but that margin has been cut in half since September, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll.

Mr. Obama holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely voters in the Buckeye State, down from a 53 to 43 percent advantage on Sept. 26. Three percent of likely voters there are undecided.

A gender gap persists: President Obama still has a double-digit advantage among women, 55 to 40 percent (down from a 60 to 35 percent lead in the September poll), while Romney leads with men.

The president enjoys a 15-point lead with women, while Romney is ahead by seven points among men, 51 to 44 percent, virtually unchanged from last month. Mr. Obama has a nearly two to one lead with unmarried women, but married women are more divided in their vote preferences.

I’m inclined to think that Ohio is going to be close all the way to the election.  But I’m also inclined to think that the electorate will be more than 26% Republican.  That’s the sample in this poll, which has a laughable D/R/I of 35/26/34.  In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28.  We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline.  That was his margin of victory in 2008 in Ohio, by the way, but Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in that election.  In this poll, he’s down seven points, a fifteen-point flip in the gap.  That’s the most telling indicator thus far, and the one that cuts through the sampling biases.

I’m inclined to wait for better sampling to determine which direction Ohio may go, but at least the CBS/Q-poll confirms that momentum has swung Romney’s way in the state.


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I’m having that 1980 Deja vu again.

Oh, and there is a reason Ace banned gumby. He/she/it is simply here to disrupt.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

D+25 can’t be far behind.

faraway on October 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I have to fix my own post. :)

When the landslide is revealed the meme will be “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasm carries Romney”!

HoustonRight on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nah. The libs will announce it this way: “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasmHate carries Romney”!

You know it will happen that way.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

How is gumbyandpokey a socon and a supporter of Obama? The two are mutually exclusive

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Yeah, that’s the point I was making. In the last 4 presidential elections Ohio has been R +2, R +5, D +1, R +3. If Romney wins nationally by 2 or 3 as unskewed polls show, Ohio would have to go D +3 for Obama to win it. Ohio didn’t even do that in 2008 and would be a major shift from Ohio’s history.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Concerning Trump’s October Surprise –

I don’t expect that President Obama is sitting on his college records to cover up any problems with poor grades…Afirmative action grade inflation would have resolved that problem. I suspect he is hiding the fact that he represented himself as a foreign student to gain admittance and financial aid. A convenient lie that is now coming back to haunt him.

Uniblogger on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the meme for the next four years being that Obama graciously conceded, even when it was unclear he had lost, to save the nation from the stress and argument.

Washington Nearsider on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Yeah, and all those politicians facing scandals really resign to spend more time with their families.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline.

The REAL numbers must be pretty bad to have to stack a poll that way.

GarandFan on October 22, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Oh, and there is a reason Ace banned gumby. He/she/it is simply here to disrupt.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Okay, since when has Ace been more in control than the powers that be here?

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:52 AM

D+25 can’t be far behind.

faraway on October 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Hey, if that what it takes to show Obama within the MoE in Ohio, we’ll see it.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:53 AM

How is gumbyandpokey a socon and a supporter of Obama? The two are mutually exclusive

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

That is the question many are asking.

Nice of you to catch up.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Gumby doesn’t know what MoE is. Shocker.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:54 AM

A convenient lie that is now coming back to haunt him.

Uniblogger on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

It would be nice.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:54 AM

When the landslide is revealed the meme will be “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasm carries Romney”!

HoustonRight on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nah. The libs will announce it this way: “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasmHate carries Romney”!

You know it will happen that way.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

That is how they’ll play it, the bigger the loss.. the more terrible the after the fact reporting will be. Just as in 94.. 2010.. they never say.. “republican positive enthusiasm was HUGE”..

it’s always.. “the GOP called out it’s racist cohorts today”…

We’re not to be portrayed as happy warriors,.. as positive,… decent people.. they always go to kos for their take on our motives..

There is simply no way… Journolist 2.0 isn’t out there coordinating their message.

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Democracy Corps has O up 4 with a D+10 sample. Better than 2008 yeah right.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 10:55 AM

So what

I don’t care

Let them

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The polls at this point are simply designed to depress GOP enthusiasm, as if an Obama win is inevitable. They will distort the sample however they can to get to a margin they think has a psychological impact without tipping their hand to the casual observer.

I wonder if this ever works?

goflyers on October 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

goflyers on October 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Ask gumby. That moby loves him some D heavy polls.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:59 AM

You’re becoming tedious. You don’t like socons, fine, but you don’t need to be an a$$ about it.

chemman on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

…tedium to fight tedious!?!v

KOOLAID2 on October 22, 2012 at 10:59 AM

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

That was on Wallace’s show yesterday. I found it interesting, as I too thought the pollsters determined the sample percentages up front, rather than reporting them on the back side. Still, the larger # dems is very telling in that it shows a large# of those identifying themselves as D must be crossing over to vote R.

Chewy the Lab on October 22, 2012 at 11:00 AM

chemman on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

It has nothing to do with real socons. It has all to do with gumby lying about being one.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I wonder if this ever works?

goflyers on October 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I voted this morning. I went out of my way to look for broken glass and/or coals. A line was the toughest thing I could find to have to over come. A line in a deep blue part of Dallas. The cars in the parking lot were not from that area. Neither were the people waiting.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline.

This poll is crap.

If Romney does what he needs to tonight, and we don’t bomb Iran, 53/47 Romney Ohio win.

PappyD61 on October 22, 2012 at 11:05 AM

So what

I don’t care

Let them

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I’m sure..

It just never hurts to be ready.. I just prefer we push back harder.. The thing which has always galled a lot of us.. was when the media would ask the inevitable, “why does your party rely on racist voters”.. to somebody like McConnel, or Bob Dole..

and they just let it slide.. mumbling a mild, no we don’t and quickly moving on but letting the premise stand unchallenged..

I’d just like our supposed leaders take it to the media like Newt did, does..

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Polls schmolls, the only one that counts is just a few weeks away.

Better start purloining the silverware, Mooch you hulking grifter, your time on the public nickel is coming to and end.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

NOT TRUE -Bishop you know better … they will be on the public dime
for the rest of their lives … Pension … staff … office space … Secret Service
I am not sure of all the perks … but we will be paying for it …
I do not think they get AF1 anymore … so maybe they have to pay for
their own travel ….

conservative tarheel on October 22, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Ed likes to compare the samples of 2008 vs. 2010. There are problems with this. 2008 was an abnormally good year for Democrats, which Ed will readily point out was an outlier.

But 2010 was a mid-term election, which historically has lower Democratic voter turnout. I suppose we could go back to 2004….what where the D/R/I samples of Ohio in that election?

cdw070 on October 22, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

…thinkg maybe the LA Times tape of Obama @ the Khalili Birthday celebration??

socalcon on October 22, 2012 at 11:11 AM

So the pollsters say they don’t correct for Party ID since that is tied to how the sample is voting. They correct for age, gender, locale, etc. However, in a state that only went Obama in 2008 by 3.5% and elected a Republican Governor, Senator, and many House members in 2010 they don’t notice that their sample is oddly skewed in one direction?

You can flip a coin 10 times and not get a 50-50 sample but if you flip it 1000 times and your results are skewed, you’d better get a new coin.

2008 was the nexus of Dem voting. 2010 was a partial correction. Also most pollsters are using a 2008 turnout model not from results but from EXIT polls which always skew lib.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Enough of the mind games over the polls in Ohio. Now, Dan Rather washed up, exposed former liberalnewsteleprompterreader(CBS) is warning that republicans are going to cheat to win.

Fleuries on October 22, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I’m waiting for a more reliable source like PPP and a realistic weighting of D/R/I 80/5/15

CorporatePiggy on October 22, 2012 at 11:15 AM

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Good point.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 11:16 AM

chemman on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

It has nothing to do with real socons. It has all to do with gumby lying about being one.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I agree with Wargamer6.. I’m a socon, and even when Santorum was in the primaries.. we caught some grief, but not over being socons.. but in our choice of candidate..

Gumby claims to be one of us, yet for a while, was positively beaming that the media declared Mitt dead and gone, waving a big pink “I told ya so” flag on every post..

No socon, who was opposed to Mitt would ever be that glad Obama was leading… not ever. I freely admit, that the supporters of Mitt early on were right about him.. He’s our best chance.. and it’s clearer everyday, he’s up to the job, even if we disagree on some issues.

and a side note

So.. yeah,.. The Romney supporters were right, there’s no shame in admitting it. None of the others would be doing this well. One or two might, win, but not with the numbers Mitt will bring.

So I admit I was wrong to oppose him early on.

I can be sure at least, he’s a good man. That’ll have to be enough.

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Enough of the mind games over the polls in Ohio. Now, Dan Rather washed up, exposed former liberalnewsteleprompterreader(CBS) is warning that republicans are going to cheat to win.

Fleuries on October 22, 2012 at 11:12 AM

That’s the final nail in the coffin right there. When they know that they don’t have a chance, they cry foul play. Oh they may have accused people of racism back in 2008, but I don’t remember them saying anything about cheating. They must be REALLY desperate.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 11:16 AM

socalcon on October 22, 2012 at 11:11 AM

I tweeted the Donald a couple of weeks ago and told him that somebody needed to get ahold of that.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Rasmussen, linked from drudge just now:

Election 2012: Colorado President
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

Sweet.

bofh on October 22, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Concerning Trump’s October Surprise –

I don’t expect that President Obama is sitting on his college records to cover up any problems with poor grades…Afirmative action grade inflation would have resolved that problem. I suspect he is hiding the fact that he represented himself as a foreign student to gain admittance and financial aid. A convenient lie that is now coming back to haunt him.

Uniblogger on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yep – that’s what I’ve thought all along.

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 11:20 AM

As for the poll-troll, furthest possible thing from a social con.

As for those who denigrate social cons, Mitt Romney more closely aligns with that label than fiscal con, and that’s a good thing. Those who run from the label social con and hold to fiscal con always cave in on even the fiscal issues when push comes to shove. Social cons have bedrock values and principles, founding on things more important than money, and are better at doing what people gripe about Republicans not doing; taking a stand and holding to it.

Mitt is never my first choice for President, but he’ll certainly do to hold the office in exchange for removing the current mistake.

Freelancer on October 22, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Enough of the mind games over the polls in Ohio. Now, Dan Rather washed up, exposed former liberalnewsteleprompterreader(CBS) is warning that republicans are going to cheat to win.

Fleuries on October 22, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Liberals are already spreading that conspiracy theory.. The Twitter site has a lot of it.

It doesn’t help when they use plus 11 samples, the low/no information democrat voters will swallow it in a second… “but but but.. Obama was LEADING”?

“we was robbed” is going to be their main theme, just like 2000.

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Josh Mandel has an email out to supporters this morning saying they are up by +1 in their internal poll over that scumbag bully, Yalie rich guy, Sherrod Brown (who names his kid Campbell Sherrod anyway?). It was a D+4 sample in their poll, JM says, so a very hopeful number.

If Romney wins in Ohio I believe Mandel wins too, though Mandel really needs some campaign cash to finish the job he’s trying to do on our behalf. Send him anything you can, I beg of you all. I sent another $20 today myself.

MTF on October 22, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Funny how these polls “tighten up” nearer the election. The pollsters desperately attempt to save face after spending the season doing their political dirty work. Clearly the goal was to create an impression of inevitability around the President and sway the weak-minded celebrity watchers into “joining the popular side”.

kpguru on October 22, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline.

PappyD61 on October 22, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Yeah, becuase the GOP is so demoralized with our candidate that people are going to stay home on November 6th.

And as to some sort of stunt like a missile strike- I think Americans are so cynical of the rat-eared wonder’s motives that such an action will not have an effect on voting.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I love that you can tell when gumby is dejected and most likely crying in a corner. He acts all confident with all of his spinning and then a bombshell like the fact that 5% of the respondents are missing from this poll and then all of the sudden he disappears.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I live in Columbus OH, and let me tell you… I can’t wait until this election is over! Right now, its all election commercials, all the time. However, the good news is that nearly all are Romney commercials now… hardly ever any Obama ones! :)

dominigan on October 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Clearly the goal was to create an impression of inevitability around the President and sway the weak-minded celebrity watchers into “joining the popular side”.

kpguru on October 22, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Remember the week before the first debate? The MSM was declaring the race over.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Concerning Trump’s October Surprise –

I don’t expect that President Obama is sitting on his college records to cover up any problems with poor grades…Afirmative action grade inflation would have resolved that problem. I suspect he is hiding the fact that he represented himself as a foreign student to gain admittance and financial aid. A convenient lie that is now coming back to haunt him.

Uniblogger on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

That makes the most sense, and Trump has considerable contacts in banking and finance, but such info won’t likely move the needle. I’m hoping that it’s something bigger than that, something that would finish Obama off, but can’t imagine what that something would realistically be.

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 11:27 AM

‘Toon of the Day: It Wasn’t Me

M2RB: Shaggy feat RikRok

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 11:29 AM

However, the good news is that nearly all are Romney commercials now… hardly ever any Obama ones! :)

dominigan on October 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Same holds true in Virginia. American Crossroads is running a very effective radio ad that doesn’t mention Romney once but talks about not being able to afford another for years of Obama. This video is a variation.

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Enough of the mind games over the polls in Ohio. Now, Dan Rather washed up, exposed former liberalnewsteleprompterreader(CBS) is warning that republicans are going to cheat to win.

Fleuries on October 22, 2012 at 11:12 AM

This is why I think there is going to be violence after the election. These pollsters are keeping democrats hopes up by using these ridiculous D+7 or D+9 polls. Democrats are far too stupid to understand the effect this has on the poll. They honestly believe Obama is up 5 in Ohio so the only way Republicans can win is by cheating. Remember the Diebold conspiracy? You can lay all the violence and whining at the feet of these dishonest pollsters.

Capitalist Infidel on October 22, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Uniblogger on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I agree. Don’t know how helpful it will be at this point.

a capella on October 22, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I wonder who gumby is voting for?

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 11:31 AM

The Ohio vote in 2004 was Bush/Kerry 2,858,727 to 2,739,952. A difference of 118,775 or 2.1% for Bush.
Kerry won in the exit poll by 4.2%.
WSJ on Oct 28 2004 had Kerry up 3 in Ohio.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Nader actually financed a study of the exit polls/real vote discrepancies in 2004. Guess what? They didn’t find anything other than that the exit polls were skewed toward the democrat far more often than toward the republican. Snort.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Via @JimPethokoukis: Obama’s chances to win Ohio are down to 55% on InTrade, an 8.2% drop for today alone: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745813

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I live in Columbus OH, and let me tell you… I can’t wait until this election is over! Right now, its all election commercials, all the time. However, the good news is that nearly all are Romney commercials now… hardly ever any Obama ones! :)

dominigan on October 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

As I commented before asking if anyone had seen it as well, that’s what I’ve noticed. Romney ads aren’t as omni-present as Obama ads were 6 weeks ago but I see few Obama ads anymore while Obama has picked up.

Anyhow, feel lucky you weren’t attending Ohio State in 2008. It was insane with its pro-Obamaness, a true testament to why the voting age should be at least 25.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I maintain that social cons are fiscal cons and fiscal cons are social cons if they have any intellectual integrity. Most social “issues” are created by the left to gain more fiscal control of the “masses”.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:36 AM

So they have a quota of Republicans that can participate?

seven on October 22, 2012 at 11:37 AM

How is gumbyandpokey a socon and a supporter of Obama? The two are mutually exclusive

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Gumby has already been outed as a lying concern troll who can’t keep his story straight.

Right Mover on October 22, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

all i can say is this. I’m a republican. I have been called for various polls a half dozen times-both human and phone auto.

I have never agreed to take the poll.

I suspect that is true with many republicans.

also-as someone who listened in on a phone poll a few weeks ago said they pressed no buttons but since obama was listed first it said Obama.

who knows for sure.

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 11:40 AM

One other thing – on last nights PPP national poll tied at 48, look at these internals:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Obama’s up 50/46 with women, 61/33 with Hispanics, 85/9 with African Americans, and 50/39 with young voters nationally:

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

Brutal PPP Ntnl poll for Obama. Romney +10 w Indies, +4 own party, +3 cross party: Requires 08 turnout to avoid blowout http://ow.ly/1P69VZ

He has Obama’s approval at 45/49, his favorability even.

Mitt’s is 49/45.

If this is what election day looks like, Obama loses handily.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 11:40 AM

How is Ohio a swing state with a D+9?

LurkerDood on October 22, 2012 at 11:43 AM

One other thing – on last nights PPP national poll tied at 48, look at these internals:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Obama’s up 50/46 with women, 61/33 with Hispanics, 85/9 with African Americans, and 50/39 with young voters nationally:

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

Brutal PPP Ntnl poll for Obama. Romney +10 w Indies, +4 own party, +3 cross party: Requires 08 turnout to avoid blowout http://ow.ly/1P69VZ

He has Obama’s approval at 45/49, his favorability even.

Mitt’s is 49/45.

If this is what election day looks like, Obama loses handily.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Geeze, just that 85/9 split with African Americans shows that definitely isn’t 2008 and anyone who is expecting anything even remotely close to 2008 is an absolute moron.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Geeze, just that 85/9 split with African Americans shows that this definitely isn’t 2008 and anyone who is expecting anything even remotely close to 2008 is an absolute moron.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 11:44 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Josh Mandel has an email out to supporters this morning saying they are up by +1 in their internal poll over that scumbag bully, Yalie rich guy, Sherrod Brown (who names his kid Campbell Sherrod anyway?). It was a D+4 sample in their poll, JM says, so a very hopeful number.

If Romney wins in Ohio I believe Mandel wins too, though Mandel really needs some campaign cash to finish the job he’s trying to do on our behalf. Send him anything you can, I beg of you all. I sent another $20 today myself.

MTF on October 22, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I just gave him some money because of your post.

While I am being generous, if Ed wants some money to ban Gumby, I will gladly pay my “fair share.”

milcus on October 22, 2012 at 11:45 AM

The Ohio vote in 2004 was Bush/Kerry 2,858,727 to 2,739,952. A difference of 118,775 or 2.1% for Bush.
Kerry won in the exit poll by 4.2%.
WSJ on Oct 28 2004 had Kerry up 3 in Ohio.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:31 AM

All of that is true. But Bush/Cheney had a superb GOTV operation, much better than John Kerry’s. I don’t know if we can say the same about Mitt Romney having an advantage over Team Liar.

So, your public service announcement C&P for the day:

I just got reports from teams in Las Vegas about the early vote. Once again, I don’t know what the rurals or Washoe Co are doing. But my people tell me that in Clark Co, Dems are outperforming GOP early voters by better than 3-2. That’s in a county with about a 6-point registration edge for Dems.

I don’t want this to scare or demoralize anyone. Dems often perform better on the first weekend of early voting, thanks to the Reid machine. The GOP makes (most of) it up during the week. But they are doing as well, or close to it, as they did in 2008. They are not rolling over and dying. We need to pour it on, or we damn well could lose, Nevada and elsewhere.

So, you ask yourself… “JohnGalt23, what can I do to help?”

Glad you asked, people. Because if you go down to your local GOP HQ today, there are very friendly, very committed people, who have all types of tasks you can do for them to help ensure GOP victory in 15 days. Mostly, they’ll ask you to make some phone calls. Maybe for an hour or two… maybe more, if you have the time.

So, head down to GOP HQ today. Not only will it give you a chance to work on your social skills, you cave-dwelling Cheeto-eaters. :-) You can be a part of turning back the socialist tide. And that’s like mainlining an armful of pure Liberty.

And yeah… they’ll give you snacks, too. But I can’t promise they’ll be Cheetos.

JohnGalt23 on October 22, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Yet another super biased joke poll… It is not rocket science folks… He who win the independents by more than 3 points is going to win the elections… In this case it will be certainly Romney…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Do republicans overperform in Ohio?

Ohio has pretty much always over performed the national vote percentage in favor of Republicans.

I think especially with the enthusiasm gap we can expect the same this time.

jazzmo on October 22, 2012 at 11:48 AM

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Great post ….. and I agree … I came on late …
Mitt was not my first thru 99th choice .. but he is the nominee
and I am supporting him and voting for him …. Obama has got to go
after which I am going to watch Mitt and hold him accountable

conservative tarheel on October 22, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 11:34 AM

this I don’t understand. Ohio is probably the whole ball of wax.

How can Obama be favored on intrade 64 percent and 10 points lower to win Ohio

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Was this dumb biased joke of a poll really worth a blog post? Aren’t there better polls to talk about?

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Screenshot from the top part of WCPO Cincinnati elections webpage, taken Oct. 20, 2012. Notice who they’ve got flagged as the winner.

https://twitter.com/TexasDarlinBlog/status/259865339305795584/photo/1

Screenshot of a CBS News affiliate in Phoenix, Arizona flashing a graphic for 17 seconds showing Obama beating Romney with 99% of precincts reporting.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=11103719&l=d0a2d0b7dd&id=24718773587

What the hell are they up to?

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 11:51 AM

“I just got reports from teams in Las Vegas about the early vote. Once again, I don’t know what the rurals or Washoe Co are doing. But my people tell me that in Clark Co, Dems are outperforming GOP early voters by better than 3-2. That’s in a county with about a 6-point registration edge for Dems.”

Nice realistic post that again proves that the Romney GOTV is a joke.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 11:52 AM

OT… VERY long, double lines to early-vote here in Arlington TX.

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 11:53 AM

I just got reports from teams in Las Vegas about the early vote. Once again, I don’t know what the rurals or Washoe Co are doing. But my people tell me that in Clark Co, Dems are outperforming GOP early voters by better than 3-2. That’s in a county with about a 6-point registration edge for Dems.

From Day 1:

Washoe County:

The Democrat advantage of 34 points on the first day four years ago is now down to 10 points . But just as interesting is the enthusiasm measure. The total early vote is up 3,084 but the Democrat vote increase is only 698 and the “Other” is up only 440. Republicans on the other hand are up 1,946, 3x as much as the Democrats. That type of enthusiasm and early vote ground game is quite similar to what we are seeing in Ohio. It’s only day one but it’s nice to come out of the gates strong. Heavily Democrat Clark County is the real test but expect incredible Democrat #s there just like Iowa. The key for Republicans will be to fight their way back from now until election day to “mind the gap.”

Clark County:

A 38 point spread in 2008 is now a 26 point gap in 2012. That is a big deal if these #s prove close to correct. Romney won’t win Clark but he needs to “mind the gap” which at least on Day 1 is exactly what he is doing. Great news for the GOP and Ralston is doing the dance of joy on behalf of the Democrats?

Carson County: 1,109 votes

Dem 35.3%
Rep 49.1%
None/Oth 15.5%

Douglas County: 3,037 votes

Dem 27.7%
Rep 57.2%
None/Oth 15.1%

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 11:53 AM

this I don’t understand. Ohio is probably the whole ball of wax.

How can Obama be favored on intrade 64 percent and 10 points lower to win Ohio

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Because inTrade is based on nothing tangible , and most people are bad at investing money.

Take the people that are still holding Facebook stock, who purchased at 40. Since they purchased that high, they cant admit they made a mistake, so they hold onto the stock as it tanks. Same with Obama on inTrade. Since the media said for months that Obama would easily win, they dont sell his chances, and hold onto the stock in case Obama makes a comeback.

As for the difference between Ohio and overall, that just shows people are not paying attention. Obama has basically lost NC, VA and FL. Yet 10% dont get that.

milcus on October 22, 2012 at 11:54 AM

The GOTV machine in Virginia is OUTRAGEOUS and that’s in Northern Virginia. It is far and away the best I’ve ever seen and I’ve been voting here in deep blue City since 1984. Picking a Mormon when you need a door-knocking army was probably pretty smart (they do that well-ha). Anyway, there has never ever been the GOTV effort here that there is this year. I am constantly stunned. I’ve stopped squealing and hugging them when they come to my door, like I did the first one! I’ve been making the calls and sending the $$. I hadn’t spent a dime since the Swiftboaters and am back on the bandwagon.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I have never agreed to take the poll.

I suspect that is true with many republicans.

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 11:40 AM

.
In Cuyahoga County- Cleveland- you pretty much have to be a closet R&R voter because of the nature of the Democrat thuggery and the union intimidation up there. A friend of ours had their tail light smashed out just above their McCain/Palin bumper sticker 4 years ago.

They are foregoing the Romney 2012 advertising this time around. But they are voting Romney, laying low.

FlaMurph on October 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I know a guy who’s high up in politics in oiho and Obama’s winning by at least 6 points. Oh I’m a Romneys supporter too but he needs to give it up.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

The GOTV machine in Virginia is OUTRAGEOUS and that’s in Northern Virginia. It is far and away the best I’ve ever seen and I’ve been voting here in deep blue City since 1984. Picking a Mormon when you need a door-knocking army was probably pretty smart (they do that well-ha). Anyway, there has never ever been the GOTV effort here that there is this year. I am constantly stunned. I’ve stopped squealing and hugging them when they come to my door, like I did the first one! I’ve been making the calls and sending the $$. I hadn’t spent a dime since the Swiftboaters and am back on the bandwagon.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Hahaha, that’s actually a pretty good point that I hadn’t thought of.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Was there an open troll registration lately? Where are all these losers coming from?

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

I know a guy who’s high up in politics in oiho and Obama’s winning by at least 6 points. Oh I’m a Romneys supporter too but he needs to give it up.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

And, I’m a 22 year old blonde Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader named Buffy.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 12:06 PM

From CBS Las Vegas:

Clark County Registrar of Voters Larry Lomax says a record 33,182 voters turned out Saturday in the state’s most populous county, up from 25,105 voters in 2008.

More voters, smaller gap between Dems and GOP on Day 1 of voting in Clark County.

Resist We Much posted this:

A 38 point spread in 2008 is now a 26 point gap in 2012. That is a big deal if these #s prove close to correct. Romney won’t win Clark but he needs to “mind the gap” which at least on Day 1 is exactly what he is doing.

Mitsouko on October 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 11:52 AM

It proves you’re a twit. You claim to live in WI, yet you seem to “know” how GOTV is doing in many states. Nice try, liar.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 11:52 AM

I notice that you managed to forget the next part. But then again, I expect little else from dishonest fools. So, for the benefit of the dishonest little green fool made out of dishonest green clay…

Dems often perform better on the first weekend of early voting, thanks to the Reid machine. The GOP makes (most of) it up during the week.

Of course, if you knew anything about Nevada politics, you’d know that to be the case. But, just like the leader of your team, the South Side thug extrordinaire, you feel perfectly qualified to speak on matters you know jack shiite about.

JohnGalt23 on October 22, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Mittmentum: New Ohio Polls Better Than They Appear

By Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher

Two new Ohio polls came out yesterday after my Ohio post, from from Gravis Marketing and PPP, both of which point to a razor-thin race in the most coveted swing state. A closer look at each poll shows just how much Romney has gained since the debates, and why he would be absolutely thrilled if these polls were accurate on Election Day.

The poll from Gravis Marketing shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent. But that’s as good as it gets for Obama. Among the most interesting tidbits from the poll:

* R lead O by 19 among independents, 52–33, and holds 92% of his base compared to O’s 87%.

* O is underwater in job approval, 44–50, and independents disapprove of him overwhelmingly, 31–58.

* And the poll has a D +9, which is a +4 jump from 2008 — no one believes that Democrats can match their 2008 turnout advantage, let alone almost double it.

PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:

* This week’s poll has a D +8 sample; last week’s advantage was D +4.

* R gained 4 on O in a week despite the sample’s having 4 points more Democrats.

* R leads with independents by 7, up from 5 last week.

* O’s approval is underwater at 48–50, and independents disapprove of him by a 41–54 margin. Last week O was in positive approval ground at 50–48, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 45–50 margin.

* R’s favorability has gone from a -6 margin last week (45–51) to a +2 this week (49–47).

* Trust on the economy went from O +5 last week (51–46) to +4 in R’s direction this week (51–47). Independents jumped from R +5 last week to R +15 this week.

These two polls highlight what many saw in the second debate: Romney may have lost the overall debate, but he won handily on the issues of the economy, debt, and taxes. While Democrats were riding high this week after Obama narrowly won the face-off, Romney was quietly solidifying support from voters by commanding the issues that matter most. Based on these two polls, the only way Obama can win Ohio is if he finds a way to greatly surpass 2008 turnout with Democrats, which at the moment seems like an impossible task. If these polls hold, it won’t be long before the state Romney was declared dead in knocks down the last pillar of inevitability that Obama has left.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 12:08 PM

I know a guy who’s high up in politics in oiho and Obama’s winning by at least 6 points. Oh I’m a Romneys supporter too but he needs to give it up.

akaniku on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Any news on Ohio though? We can afford to lose Oiho, if Romney wins Ohio.

milcus on October 22, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Nice realistic post that again proves that the Romney GOTV is a joke.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Hey gumby, what about this poll only equalling 95% when the splits are added up?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 12:10 PM

OT… VERY long, double lines to early-vote here in Arlington TX.

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Well, we all know how much Arlingtonians love Obama. Oh, Wait a minute, Texas not Virginia…..Nevermind! :0

Happy Nomad on October 22, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

What again? Another “very big” from Trump?

Unless he has photos of Obama sleeping with a goat, wait, that won’t matter, with a hooker, no that’s okay, young boy, that would probably hurt Obama…nothing will move the needle for Obama.

It’s up to Romney to win, Obama won’t “lose…his faithful will vote for him no matter what.

right2bright on October 22, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Be aware, gang. More Troll Sleeper Cells will be activated as we count down to November 6th.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 12:14 PM

What the hell are they up to?

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 11:51 AM

.
Unintentionally asking for a Federal lawsuit shot their way that will trim all this Early voting BS – that can allow for those who have not voted yet to be – how do the say… “Disenfranchised”

Suppression indeed.

FlaMurph on October 22, 2012 at 12:16 PM

And, I’m a 22 year old blonde Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader named Buffy.

kingsjester on October 22, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Ok Buffy – I am going to remember that when I see you on
QOTD … heheheheh

conservative tarheel on October 22, 2012 at 12:18 PM

“And, I’m a 22 year old blonde Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader named Buffy.”

You should swing by more often.

NoVAHockey on October 22, 2012 at 12:18 PM

this I don’t understand. Ohio is probably the whole ball of wax.

How can Obama be favored on intrade 64 percent and 10 points lower to win Ohio

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Especially as they have Romney now favored to win CO and VA. Given that, the national number should closely track (not exactly, but closely) the Ohio number.

Normally, I’d guess someone is trying to prop up the Intrade market for Obama. But Ladbroke’s of London still has Obama as an almost 2-1 favorite. I can’t imagine someone is manipulating Ladbroke’s.

It may well be that the bookies are waiting until after tonight to move the lines…

JohnGalt23 on October 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Limbaugh discussing this “poll” now…

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 12:20 PM

OT, now that I’m home with a keyboard. ;-)

VERY busy early-voting place before lunch, in Arlington TX.
Our parking lot was just across a driveway, where I was met by a Dem city council candidate.
He asked if he could count on me to vote straight D.
I smiled, shook his hand and said ‘not a chance, but have a nice day’.
He quickly turned to the next person… LOL
I thanked the worker for her time, and she sweetly said ‘oh, NO ! YOU are the ones making a difference, here !’
When I mentioned that I’d hoped to beat the lunch crowd and was surprised by the crowd, she told me they have been that busy since the doors opened !! My number was 3991.
Btw, I saw several O stickers in the lot. None for Mitt.

Ok, time to read the actual thread .. LOL.

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 12:24 PM

I strongly suspect that Quinnipiac is going to be releasing a new poll to keep the egg off of their face that would result from this being their last OH poll of the election cycle.

besser tot als rot on October 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

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