Romney closing in on Obama in Ohio in CBS/Q-poll

posted at 10:01 am on October 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Lots of buzz about the latest CBS News/Quinnipiac poll in Ohio, taken after the second debate, and especially about its methodology.  Let’s take a look at the toplines first, which despite the rather silly sample shows Mitt Romney with the momentum in the Buckeye State:

President Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio, but that margin has been cut in half since September, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll.

Mr. Obama holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely voters in the Buckeye State, down from a 53 to 43 percent advantage on Sept. 26. Three percent of likely voters there are undecided.

A gender gap persists: President Obama still has a double-digit advantage among women, 55 to 40 percent (down from a 60 to 35 percent lead in the September poll), while Romney leads with men.

The president enjoys a 15-point lead with women, while Romney is ahead by seven points among men, 51 to 44 percent, virtually unchanged from last month. Mr. Obama has a nearly two to one lead with unmarried women, but married women are more divided in their vote preferences.

I’m inclined to think that Ohio is going to be close all the way to the election.  But I’m also inclined to think that the electorate will be more than 26% Republican.  That’s the sample in this poll, which has a laughable D/R/I of 35/26/34.  In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28.  We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline.  That was his margin of victory in 2008 in Ohio, by the way, but Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in that election.  In this poll, he’s down seven points, a fifteen-point flip in the gap.  That’s the most telling indicator thus far, and the one that cuts through the sampling biases.

I’m inclined to wait for better sampling to determine which direction Ohio may go, but at least the CBS/Q-poll confirms that momentum has swung Romney’s way in the state.


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Okay … I am starting to have some hope
that we can actually change the direction
America is taking ….

conservative tarheel on October 22, 2012 at 10:04 AM

O-I-H-O will got to Obama

O-H-I-O will got to Romney

gatorboy on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

D+9. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Polls schmolls, the only one that counts is just a few weeks away.

Better start purloining the silverware, Mooch you hulking grifter, your time on the public nickel is coming to and end.

Bishop on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Additionally, when NBC and MSNBC are talking about a virtual tie… the metrics are shouting that the Dems are in panic mode.

I expect the race to look tied- with Romney carrying the mo for two more weeks. C’mon ohio!

Bensonofben on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Maybe the good folks in O-I-H-O are finally starting to get their minds right.

pain train on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Come on Mitt. You’ve got him on the ropes. Finish him off tonight!

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

The liberal boys are getting desperate trying to show that there is still some hope for the little “o” in the big “O” state.

Deano1952 on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

CO: R 50% O 46%… DEVELOPING…

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

But gumby thinks the historic GOTV machine of the Democrats will have Obama win Ohio even though Ohio just purged the voter rolls of 400,000 names because they moved, were fraudulent, or are deceased.

Sorry gumby, that’s 400,000 less votes to count on for Obama.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

That delta of change between SEP and OCT is huge…and if that is part of the trend line, then OH is no longer a ‘firewall’ for the Democrats. Yes a couple of weeks is a lifetime in politics, but trend lines get a power all their own once they start.

My guess is that the non-Democratic enclaves in OH are starting to weigh in, especially those in usually D leaning coal country. Something is giving in OH and it is giving way quickly.

ajacksonian on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Are these D+ samples an attempt to factor in the democrats voter fraud?

meci on October 22, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I’m inclined to wait for better sampling to determine which direction Ohio may go, but at least the CBS/Q-poll confirms that momentum has swung Romney’s way in the state.

No need to wait, Ed. Factor in a realistic turnout for Republicans(26%, CBS? Seriously?) along with the gains made with indies, and O-I-H-O will go for Romney by at least a couple points.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 10:07 AM

When the landslide is revealed the meme will be “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasm carries Romney”!

HoustonRight on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Just read a local ‘inside the polls’ article that featured some republicans and these three Dems. One was unemployed, one was unemployed and on disability, and the third could only find part time work and needed free health care. Ironic that these are the 3 they cited. THIS is what we are fighting agianst as republicans. People voting for their free stuff.

Bensonofben on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Romney is going to win this thing. Feeling VERY good this morning.

Romney is surging at the perfect time.

Obama peaked long ago, and his Bill Clinton convention speech poll bounce sure was short-lived.

The more voters see Romney unfiltered, the more they like him. The exactly opposite is true of Obama.

The Obama campaign made a huge mistake in running a character assassination campaign against Mitt instead of advocating a positive agenda for a second Obama term, which we all know will never be.

Election Night will be a somber time for Obama supporters.

bluegill on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

DRI of 35-26-34 adds up to … 95% (could be a bit more accounting for rounding effects). But still well short of 100. Who are the others? Is that where Obama’s 5% “lead” comes from?

jwolf on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the meme for the next four years being that Obama graciously conceded, even when it was unclear he had lost, to save the nation from the stress and argument.

Washington Nearsider on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Ed is going to make us experts in polls before this thing is over.

KBird on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I live in ohio. We have had early voting for a couple of weeks now which might skew it in that direction some. But D+9?

flstc on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Barry, at best, has a two-point lead.

You could make that argument because the public sector workers who would usually vote Repub, are not going to out of fear of their paycheck. That cascades to family members and changes a number of split household votes.

But – the population has shifted from Dem counties to Republican exurbs and the voter rolls have been purged. So the odds of Obama getting a 39% turnout are near-impossible. They know this, which is why they’re hellbent on college students.

IMO, the poll that showed 47% feels the most correct. Romney has to assure he’s not a neocon in hiding, and then he’ll get the benefit.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

This is the poll that gumballs was dry humping last night. Record low R turnout? Yeah right.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:11 AM

DRI of 35-26-34 adds up to … 95% (could be a bit more accounting for rounding effects). But still well short of 100. Who are the others? Is that where Obama’s 5% “lead” comes from?

jwolf on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Oh my, seriously? How did we all miss this on the other thread? Wow, they are incredibly desperate. I feel really good now. I wonder if Gumby will make a visit to explain this.

Hahahahaha

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

@Brand_Allen

#OHIO #POLL: New Angus Reid survey has OH TIED, 48-48% http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012.10.21_Ohio.pdf … Joins @PPPpolls & Gravis in finding OH tied #tcot #firewallmyass

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

NotCoach averaging and adjusting in Ohio with undecideds factored in:

Romney: 53.3

Obama: 45.2

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Ed is going to make us experts in polls before this thing is over.

KBird on October 22, 2012 at 10:10 AM

One of the most valuable things I’ve learned since posting on HA. I never looked at samples before. I do now.

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 10:13 AM

But gumby thinks the historic GOTV machine of the Democrats will have Obama win Ohio even though Ohio just purged the voter rolls of 400,000 names because they moved, were fraudulent, or are deceased.

Sorry gumby, that’s 400,000 less votes to count on for Obama.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The Obama supporter GumbyandPokey knows Obama is going to lose. Gumby does not truly believe that the Dems’ GOTV efforts are going to carry Obama to victory. Gumby is simply pretending to be a conservative while spinning the facts in Obama’s favor because he wants to demoralize Republicans. That’s all he does on this and other sites.

bluegill on October 22, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Even with a decent sample, Rasmussen shows Romney losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Gravis Marketing will show them tied as well.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Blerg the Obama socon cheerleader is here!

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I don’t know if there are numbers to support this but I was surprised at how few Obama ads I saw watching football yesterday here in Ohio. The first few games of the season had at least 1, sometimes 2 Obama/democrat ads per commercial break with maybe 1 Romney or republican ad per game. 3-4 weeks ago many commercial breaks were Obama ad, Romney ad, Romney or republican ad, Obama or democrat ad. Every commercial break had at least 2 political ads. Yesterday I saw 5 Romney ads and 3 republican ads, against 2 Obama ads.

Anecdotal I know, but I wonder if this indicates a quiet Obama withdrawl to focus on the wall of smaller states that Romney needs one of in addition to Ohio to win.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Even with a decent sample, Rasmussen shows Romney losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

What is Rasmussen’s sample?

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

CO: R 50% O 46%… DEVELOPING…

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Then it looks like Ohio is the final piece to the puzzle, that is if our momentum doesn’t sweep up over 300 EV’s.

The Count on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Even with a decent sample, Rasmussen shows Romney losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Rasmussen shows Ohio tied, learn how to read polls.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

But Springsteen told everyone to go vote….there are more dem early voters than gop
-lsm

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 10:16 AM

“Even with a decent sample, Rasmussen shows Romney losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

What is Rasmussen’s sample?

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM”

It was either D+2 or D+3.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

CO: R 50% O 46%… DEVELOPING…

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Then it looks like Ohio is the final piece to the puzzle, that is if our momentum doesn’t sweep up over 300 EV’s.

The Count on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Yes that’s per drudge

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Are these D+ samples an attempt to factor in the democrats voter fraud?

meci on October 22, 2012 at 10:07 AM

hahahahaha — YES they are! They are highly scientific polls.

balkanmom on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I watched a video fox news sunday with frank newport head of gallup polls.

He insists that he and most pollsters do not use party id as a parameter.

they just take the voters as they identify themselves.

this leads me to believe that more republicans decline to be polled.

I myself never respond to a poll.

democrats must like to.

only rassmussen uses party Id as a parameter.

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Any poll that is more than a D+1 is complete garbage- 2010 was just a dress rehearsal for GOP enthusiasm.
Media will skew because they’re now basically wishcasting for their socialist hero as he goes down in flames.

jjshaka on October 22, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Since 1960 the GOP has never done more than 2 pts worse in Ohio than they did nationally.

McCain did 2.5 points BETTER in Ohio than he did nationally in 2009. CBS polls have outdone all including Marist as having ridiculously Obama-friendly polls.

PS:

Rasmussen
Colorado, President

with and without leaners

50% Romney
46% Obama

KABOOM

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:18 AM

gumbyandpokey

From the mouth, well and from a week ago, of you liberals newly found ueberpollster:

The projections now show President Obama with 237 Electoral Votes and Governor Romney with 235. Seven states with 66 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Ohio,…

In simple terms for you, that means Rasmussen doesn’t show Romney losing Ohio.

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

OT, sort of.

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Come on Mitt. You’ve got him on the ropes. Finish him off tonight!

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 10:05 AM

…after the way Meat Loaf participated in the last debate…old Uncle Bob will be making me nervous!

KOOLAID2 on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Even with a decent sample, Rasmussen shows Romney losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

What is Rasmussen’s sample?

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

D/R/I
80/9/11

/

Washington Nearsider on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Brace for the biggest chimpanzee flinging feces conniption fit from the MSM over the next 2 weeks. Reality is catching up and they will throw everything at Romney to try to take him down.

Smile. Pray. Vote.

We got this.

Sugar Land on October 22, 2012 at 10:20 AM

From yesterday:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

New Q/CBS/NYT Ohio poll comes out tomorrow. Keep in mind their last poll was the HIGHEST Obama lead in ANY Ohio poll since March.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:21 AM

OT, sort of.

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I heard it, I think it’s Obama’s school records, trump is big on education

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:21 AM

gummeandpokeme

…is that pole causing any discomfort yet?

KOOLAID2 on October 22, 2012 at 10:21 AM

It was either D+2 or D+3.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

So now you’re making shite up. And jarodea said Rasmussen shows a tie in Ohio. That’s Romney losing?

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Something is giving in OH and it is giving way quickly.

ajacksonian on October 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

It’s the suburbs. Just like PA, the outer suburban ring used to decide the election.

In ’08, they tilted 60/40 or 70/30 Barry, and that’s all he needed because the Dem Large-city counties were negated by the rural, exurban and farm areas.

So while inner-suburban rings have been crushed in Cuyahoga County by taxes, foreclosures and crime, enough black and progressive residents will still carry the county.

That makes Obama reliant on suburban voters, but his turnout and support weakened in ’10 and fell off a cliff this summer.

That’s left him with going after college kids, most of them are the children of the suburbs.

Romney needs about 150-100K people to swing solidily his way, and he’ll carry the state. That’s really what it’s about down to.

Fill Buckeye Stadium with new Romney voters, and he wins.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

He’s black?

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Just a note Ed: If your likely voter screen is getting D+9 and you don’t so anythng about it then you would have to be trying to spin the Romney advantage and if you are trying to spin the Romney advantage then you are not to be taken seriously.

The liberals are trying to rally their base and depress Republicans as usual bt no one is going to skip voting in Ohio because they can be convinced is is not close.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:23 AM

The only poll I care about now is the one on 11/6.

GOTV people! Volunteer, drive folks to the polls, donate!

Pull the lever,
Punch the card,
Check the box,
Press the button.

VOTE!

BacaDog on October 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

As a side note I used to live in Hamden,CT where Quinnipiac is and if you think that isn’t fill with 100% liberals you haven’t been there, There would be no employee of that school that wasn’t a red diaper baby.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Even with a decent sample, Rasmussen shows Romney losing OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Rasmussen has it at O 49 R 48 moe +/- 4

That isn’t losing. That is tied.

flstc on October 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Donald Trump is a clown.

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I wish someone would poll me. I am a woman and I do not find O likable at all, and I would never vote for him or any lib. I write my own name in when I have no options on the ballot.
I think Romney is going to win. O is desperate, he’s asking Reverend Wright for help,

carolt2 on October 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

This poll still D+9

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:26 AM

. I wonder if Gumby will make a visit to explain this.

Hahahahaha

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

…do Bears sh!t in the woods?

KOOLAID2 on October 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

I watched a video fox news sunday with frank newport head of gallup polls.

He insists that he and most pollsters do not use party id as a parameter.

they just take the voters as they identify themselves.

this leads me to believe that more republicans decline to be polled.

I myself never respond to a poll.

democrats must like to.

only rassmussen uses party Id as a parameter.

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I forget who did it, but a conservative blogger talked to a bunch of pollsters and found out that no, they don’t weight for party ID. They said it is a terrible indicator of how people vote. Yes they said that. Other than independents it seems the best indicator to me.

Also, Jim Geraghty’s poll guy or campaign guy said a while ago that pollsters are heavily lobbied and influenced by campaigns. He further said that Obama’s campaign has gone overboard lobbying pollsters to use 2008 turnout in their polls and most importantly to keep blacks and the youth at their 2008 levels in their polls. I wonder if given the importance of Ohio that as a last ditch effort the Obama campaign wants pollsters to at least keep using 2008 numbers for Ohio (even though they are wrong, Ohio was D +5 not D +8 in 2008).

jarodea on October 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline. That was his margin of victory in 2008 in Ohio, by the way, but Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in that election.

They have got to be kidding…

I’m sure our resident Ohio denier and green lump of clay will show up and in a seriously somber practiced monotone tell us exactly WHY an 11 point spread isn’t nonsensical..

But it is..

The pollsters are allowing Mitt is surging ahead everywhere.. except us stubborn Buckeyes.. who (LMAO) are just soooooo liking Obama and Biden. Well, it’s complete nonsense..

There is no surge in Obama enthusiasm in his base.. Hell a sizable chunk of blue collar democrats will be crossing over to vote for Mitt.. So them being democrat, doesn’t mean an Obama vote.

The only excitement here…

is we finally,… FINALLY GET TO THROW THE RATS OUT.

Ohio has always been arrogant about it’s position as the must win state for a republican president.. at least the democrats here have been… using that as a tool to attack our candidate.. well….. he can’t win Ohio… he must suck.

It’s all sophistry.. it might be close.. but I doubt very much the lead is Obama’s… not with a plus 11…. that’s laughable.

How.. do they justify THAT kind of juggling the books?

+11?

Next.. they’ll be telling us Santa has endorsed Obama.. desperation.. it has a funny smell.

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

This poll still D+9

and why does that cartoon character keep saying Rasmussen has Romney losing Ohio. Rasmussen has Romney up in Ohio. Hey, look at a RECENT poll, stupid.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Romney wins both Colorado and Iowa, he will win Ohio. Ohio is not yet Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan, i.e., more blue than red or more purple than red. Ohioans are actually still more like their brethren in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, etc.

Listen, this is not 2008.

Romney isn’t going to win CA, but there is a lesson to learn there. In 2008, Obama won by 24 points. He is leading now by 15 while Feinstein’s lowest lead is, you guessed it, 24 points. He’s lost 9 points.

Obama lost Missouri by 0.1% in 2008. Romney is +11 today in Missouri, which was once the ultimate battleground state. He’s lost 11 points.

Romney isn’t going to win Oregon, but Obama won it by 17 in 2008. He is only winning it by 7 today. He’s lost 10 points.

Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points. He is leading in the latest poll by 2, which is within the MOE. He’s lost 12.

Obama won Virginia by 6, Nevada by 13, Colorado by 9, Iowa by 10, New Hampshire by 10, and Ohio by 4. None of that is true this year.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

flstc on October 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

This poll is the same as gumby’s post. They are the party of psychological warfare. Much like the communists in China and USSR

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Ha! He’s like Gloria Allred for our side! A total publicity machine.

Mitsouko on October 22, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I think Romney is going to win. O is desperate, he’s asking Reverend Wright for help,

i’m sure this will increase obama’s lead with white voters

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 10:29 AM

He’s black?

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You’d be half-right.

Doughboy on October 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

One last note:

Ohio voters do not like being on the outside, looking in. That’s why so many suburbans went Obama in ’08 at the last minute.

If they feel the news is PA and Wisconsin are moving Romney, a lot of Obama suburbans will switch in the booth or not vote. That will show in the final tallies.

Team Barry knows all of this, which is why they’re hellbent on early
voting. Get people locked in now, and let ‘em regret it later.

What’s crazy, is even if he still won, Obama will have to become Clinton overnight, or average non-partisans will support his impeachment. IMO, it’s another reason he doesn’t care for the gig anymore.

But as I’ve said since Spring, a Barry win is only going to be electoral, not popular.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

New Q/CBS/NYT Ohio poll comes out tomorrow. Keep in mind their last poll was the HIGHEST Obama lead in ANY Ohio poll since March.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:21 AM

There last poll had Obama +10 with a 35/26/35 sample. **eyeroll**

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s got the college transcripts.

I’m sorry I can’t help it – I like Trump. He makes me smile.

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

i’m sure this will increase obama’s lead with white voters

gerrym51 on October 22, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Maybe Wright is telling Obama about chickens and roosting.

NotCoach on October 22, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Obama loses Wisconsin and one other state in Obama’s “firewall” like NH Romney replaces Ohio and goes to 270. Obama HAS to win Wisconsin as part of his firewall.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Very good points.

Barry is treading water in blue states…

…which means he’s under in purple…

…and a floater in red.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

‘Hulking grifter.’ ouch
That’ll leave a mark.

oprockwell on October 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I’ve heard the spin that pollsters don’t weight for Party ID and that they only weight for gender, age, area etc and the Party ID falls where it falls because it tends to be related to whomever the person is voting for that year.

Bull.

I can flip a coin 10 times and get 9 heads and 1 tail, fine. If I flip it 100 times and get 90 heads and 10 tails then I know there is something wrong with the coin or my flipping technique.

If Ohio went for Obama in 2008 by 3.5 with the highest turnout and pro-democrat sentiment and then in 2010 Ohio elects Republicans to most other major offices, there is no way that a D+9 sample is accurate. In fact, you know instantly that the coin or the flipper has a major flaw.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

“This poll still D+9

and why does that cartoon character keep saying Rasmussen has Romney losing Ohio. Rasmussen has Romney up in Ohio. Hey, look at a RECENT poll, stupid.

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:28 AM”

Just factually wrong. The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama +1 in Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s got the college transcripts.

I’m sorry I can’t help it – I like Trump. He makes me smile.

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

I would broaden that to someone with information about why Obama is hiding his transcripts.

I can believe a guy with Trump’s resources can find someone from Obama’s college days to fill in the blanks.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

If Obama loses Wisconsin and one other state in Obama’s “firewall” like NH Romney replaces Ohio and goes to 270. Obama HAS to win Wisconsin as part of his firewall.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:32 AM

It’s not even going to come to this Romney is going wo win by 10 pm

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Ohio will decide the election.

WisCon on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Doing “my” math with a fair sample, Romney is leading slightly in Ohio…

Stand by for pollsters to be VERY EMBARRASSED on NO-vember 6th and 7th…

Khun Joe on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

If Obama loses Wisconsin and one other state in Obama’s “firewall” like NH Romney replaces Ohio and goes to 270. Obama HAS to win Wisconsin as part of his firewall.

Conan on October 22, 2012 at 10:32 AM

On that note, new Rasmussen poll has Thompson ahead of Baldwin for U.S. Senate 48-46.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Trump hates Allred.

He’s doing this to take the airtime beforehand, so whatever she has will look like a desperate pushback.

Smart move.

Praying it’s his transcripts. Or Khalidi.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I just love how we’re all worried that Obama could win the EC while he won’t break 47% in the popular vote. This thing is in the bag for Romney. The only question now is how much of a message are we going to send. Obama is going to lose Ohio like he loses the election… By 7 points.

Let’s make sure they hear us loud and clear. GOTV is not just for winning the election, it’s for driving a narrative that the MSM can’t ignore.

happytobehere on October 22, 2012 at 10:39 AM

It’s not even going to come to this Romney is going wo win by 10 pm

Conservative4ev on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I would love that, but the problem is once tallies from battleground states start showing Romney pulling ahead, the large Dem City counties will slow their counts up and won’t deliver on time, just so the other timezones don’t deflate, ala Reagan 1980.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Weird poll. Romney wins Indies strongly, and yet Q has him behind on the top line. Going further, Dem registration is way down in the state as a whole and Dem enthusiasm is relatively low anyway. I’m betting Romney is really well within the MOE in a reasonable sample and will win Ohio on election day.

MTF on October 22, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I’ve always said CO and IA were the best chances for a GOP pickup.

And you know what? Doesn’t mean squat if Romney loses Ohio. And even Rasmussen shows Obama winning OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Obama won CO by 9 in 2008- exactly twice what he won OH by.

If he’s up in CO by 4, he will win Ohio.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 10:40 AM

On that note, new Rasmussen poll has Thompson ahead of Baldwin for U.S. Senate 48-46.

WisRich on October 22, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I saw that earlier, and first thing I thought was, “How does Romney lose Wisconsin now, when Thompson has run a horrible campaign”?

If that holds, Wisconsin is gone for 0.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:41 AM

OT, sort of.

Trump says he’s coming out on Wednesday with something “very, very big” concerning Obama. Has anyone heard what that might be?

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 10:19 AM

As very, very big as that thing he was going to do at the convention? What was that again? C’mon Trump, lay low for two more weeks.

msupertas on October 22, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I may be becoming a “Pollster”, the only polls that show this type of margin in Ohio are the media based polls, ABC, NBC, NYT…..

If it’s over in Ohio for Obama then it’s over everywhere for him………….not a good story line!

Tater Salad on October 22, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Dem registration is way down in the state as a whole.

MTF on October 22, 2012 at 10:39 AM

That’s the voter roll purge and population change.

budfox on October 22, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I love the smell of Desperation in the morning…It smells like Victory!

Pretty soon the libatards will have an all demorat survey and the Obumbler will only be up by 10…

“D-e-s-p-e-r-a-t-i-o-n…D-e-s-p-e-r-a-t-i-o-n…Is making me laugh…Is keeping me CRACKING UP!!”

Tbone McGraw on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

We Buckeyes know too… that a couple of papers, most egregious the Cleveland Plain Dealer has been waging a holy war against everything GOP.. their “fact checker” Politifact Ohio.. has been an arm of the Sherrod campaign… it’s head, a known basher of the GOP as crazy rednecks and racist hicks.. his twitter account was rife with such gems…

The Union rags.. like in the Senate Bill vote to strike down public union reforms.. have been lying through there teeth shamelessly..

Unions aren’t the majority here, but they are widespread,.. everyone knows someone who has a teachers job, a state road crew position, an office job.. something…. and all are defending their government bloated paychecks to the death,… so while we’re winning..

It’s a tough fight, with massive, huge amounts of Obama, democrat, union bald faced lies to counter.. Uion rag papers to fight..

even teachers trying to use our kids to get to us, some engaging in propagandizing their classrooms.. I saw that personally in 08… but we’re fighting back hard..

You know the drill.. the socialist unionista’s are thundering loud bullys, and they won’t let anything go.. so if you get into an argument with one, pack a lunch.. though their answer to everything is… “you hate black people and the middle class”….. hiiiiisssssssss…

Kinda like the zombies in resident evil.. but less intelligent.

mark81150 on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Blerg the Obama socon cheerleader is here!

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 10:14 AM

You’re becoming tedious. You don’t like socons, fine, but you don’t need to be an a$$ about it.

chemman on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

For all of the talk about Early Voting, I discovered this little nugget in the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll from last month that gave Obama a 10 point lead in Ohio with a D +9 (I’m including the numbers on FL & PA, too):

Question 9:

(FL & OH)Do you think you’ll vote on Election Day, or do you think you will vote by mail or absentee ballot or will you vote at an early voting location?

(PA) Do you think you’ll vote on Election Day, or do you think you will vote by mail or absentee ballot? (na = not asked)

OH:

Vote on Election Day: 67
Absentee/Mail in: 23
Early voting location: 8
Don’t know/not applicable: 2

PA:

Vote on Election Day: 94
Absentee/Mail in: 5
Early voting location: na
Don’t know/not applicable: 1

FL:

Vote on Election Day: 58
Absentee/Mail in: 19
Early voting location: 21
Don’t know/not applicable: 3

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Obama’s little Rasmussen 1% is + or – MoE of 4. This is your big proof of Ohio leaning Marxist?

Haunches on October 22, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Mr. Obama holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely ….

Old Sail-Ears’ ‘dream-maker’ is running for POTUS?

socalcon on October 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

chemman on October 22, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Pay attention, gumby once self identified as one.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 10:45 AM

When the landslide is revealed the meme will be “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasm carries Romney”!

HoustonRight on October 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nah. The libs will announce it this way: “unexpected burst of conservative enthusiasmHate carries Romney”!

You know it will happen that way.

Sterling Holobyte on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

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