ABC/WaPo poll: Romney pulls nearly even with Obama on handling foreign affairs, terrorism; Update: Obama’s giving up on NC, says Begala

posted at 7:47 pm on October 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know you’ve got poll fatigue but we’re in a news holding pattern ahead of the debate. This one’s topical, though: Even before the first words are spoken in Florida tonight, Romney’s surged into a near tie with O on the two core components of foreign policy. Consider it insurance against a poor performance this evening. Barring any catastrophic gaffes, Romney seems to have already met the credibility threshold for the presidency, enough so that he’s even with an incumbent despite the country not yet having heard him talk foreign policy at length. If he does well tonight, he builds on that. If he does “meh,” eh. Probably won’t hurt him any.

With tonight’s debate focused on foreign policy, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds Romney virtually tied with Obama in trust to handle international affairs (49-46 percent, Obama-Romney) and terrorism (47-46 percent), as well as to serve as commander-in-chief of the armed services (48-45 percent). That reflects a shift in Romney’s favor; Obama led on terrorism by 11 points as recently as Sept. 29, and on international affairs by 7 points earlier this month.

In another milestone for Romney, 50 percent of likely voters express a favorable opinion of him overall, while 47 percent see him unfavorably – his highest popularity score of the season, and one of the rare times he’s been numerically above water in this measure. His personal popularity now roughly matches Obama’s 52-46 percent, favorable-unfavorable…

As well as close overall, the contest stands at 51-47 percent, Romney-Obama, in the nine battleground states designated by the ABC News Political Unit – well within the margin of sampling error, and not significantly different from the mid-month 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney, in these same states. But regardless of sampling error, the bigger number now is Romney’s, another indication of the competitiveness he’s showing.

I hope they’re going to poll those battleground states with a bigger sample. A nine-point swing may not be statistically significant in this case, but I’d sure like to know what sort of swing a proper sample is picking up. Strangely, while Romney’s gained ground on foreign affairs, Obama’s gained ground on the economy (he trails by just two), the deficit (he trails by four), and taxes (he leads by 11), which makes this poll the opposite of the CW — Obama’s improved domestically and Romney’s improved on international issues. Also strange is that ABC’s still picking up its largest gender gap of the season, a 14-point lead among women for O and a 12-point lead among men for Romney. A few other recent high-profile polls have shown Romney gaining with women. Proof that the left’s days-long fascination with “binder” references has paid off? Probably not:

Unlike their more conservative cohorts, these women agreed that abortion is not any of the federal government’s business. But they also didn’t believe abortion rights were on the line in the coming election. “It has never changed,” Zebib said. “We’ve had pro-life presidents many times, and it didn’t change. It’s a bumper sticker. They try to divert our attention.”

Eileen touched her friend’s arm. “Most women I know, whether they’re for Obama or Romney, they feel the same thing,” she said. “It’s a distraction. That whole Gloria Steinem thing is old.”…

Romney’s “binders full of women” line, an awkward phrasing that inspired reams of mockery on the Internet, wasn’t changing any minds among the women I spoke to. Democratic partisans saw it as more evidence Romney was out of touch; Republican partisans saw it as of a piece with his business background. “Anyone who’s ever been a professional, ever, knows that’s how you get resumes: in a binder,”43-year-old Republican stay-at-home mother Michele Moss said, rolling her eyes. Only someone who’d never been in the business world — like Obama — would fail to understand that.

The “binders” line didn’t register at all among the undecided women.

Yeah, it’s a strange thing for an ostensibly “progressive” administration to decide that the key to women’s votes runs through abortion and contraception when the most momentous progress they’ve made over the last 50 years has to do with jobs. Note to O: When women tell you they’re concerned about “labor,” they’re not referring to the last stages of pregnancy. Gallup:

Says Laura Genero at AmSpec, “Economics, not reproduction, is the women’s issue of the 21st century. It’s one of the ironies of this election that Mitt Romney– whose wife worked primarily inside the home — has a better grasp of this than President Obama, whose wife worked outside the home.” Tonight’s debate will probably have the smallest effect of the four this year on moving the gender gap one way or another, but we’ll see. Three days or so until the first post-debate polls.

Update: Like I was saying, the bulk of the evidence right now is that the gender gap is closing, not opening. New from CBS:

The poll also shows a narrowing of the gender gap. Women have given the President a nearly double-digit lead in many polls, including the September CBS News/New York Times Poll. Now, however, women support Mr. Obama by five points, 50 to 45 percent (down from 12 points last month); the race is even among men – tied at 47 percent.

Update: Via the Standard, no surprise here:


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I just wish Romney/Ryan were crushing Obama.

Blake on October 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I don’t have poll fatigue. Keep it coming.

Nessuno on October 22, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I sure hope Bob Schieffer has copies of all of Dear Leader’s speeches tonight…

d1carter on October 22, 2012 at 7:52 PM

OT: Italy sentences 6 scientists to prison for failure to warn of an EQ. It’s like they have become muslims!

Blake on October 22, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Obama down to 59% on Intrade.

The Count on October 22, 2012 at 7:53 PM

eight questions about Osama

one about Libya – “Why are you politicizing this, Governor?”

Slade73 on October 22, 2012 at 7:53 PM

I just wish Romney/Ryan were crushing Obama.

Blake on October 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

It might not look like it now Blake, but I have a feeling it’s still going to happen. At least a spread where there will be no doubt.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:53 PM

I don’t have poll fatigue. Keep it coming.

Nessuno on October 22, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Unfortunately dumbey&dumber keeps coming too (pun intended :)…it’s like a package deal :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I just wish Romney/Ryan were crushing Obama.

Blake on October 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

They are.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Economics, not reproduction, is the women’s issue of the 21st century.

watching a little msdnc, you wouldn’t think that…its all about abortionn and contraception, economy be damned

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 7:55 PM

This is what is known as a “Cascade Event.” Once it starts to go downhill there is an avalanche. This is what all those donk =11 point polls were trying to stop.

Ladies and gentlemen, the bottom is falling out of the democrat party support.

jukin3 on October 22, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Well umm… they uh..

I got nothin’

/gummyandpukey

Gingotts on October 22, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Barring any catastrophic gaffes,

I.e. “There is no Islamic domination of the Middle East…”

aunursa on October 22, 2012 at 7:55 PM

will bob break candy’s record of 28 interruptions against mitt and only 9 against dear leader?

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I know you’ve got poll RuPoll fatigue…/blockquote>

FIFY, Allah.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

BTW, Obama leads Romney 48-46 in that CBS/NYT poll.

Are you guys going to get excited about being down 2 pts?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Very promising. All Romney has to do is remain confident, calm, and stay on track with the facts.

He only has to come out ‘even’ to win.

I’m expecting Obama to be overtly aggressive, obnoxious, interrupt, be rude, insist that Romney doesn’t know what he’s talking about and/or is lying, and has no experience. It is, after all, all he has to go with since he cannot defend his own abysmal record, nor does he have a viable plan for the next four years. Of course, in keeping with all of the other three debate moderators, the moderator will assist Obama in this effort.

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I just wish Romney/Ryan were crushing Obama.
Blake on October 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

The MSM is doing everything it can to soft focus the crush that is occurring in real time.

The Chewbacca Defense on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

ABC Poll is D+5.

CBS Poll is D+6.

kevinkristy on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

*crossing fingers*

i don’t want folks to be complacent and decide to sit on the couch between now and nov 6th

G O T V people…

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 7:57 PM

“This is what is known as a “Cascade Event.””

What cascade?

The margin is pretty much unchanged from CBS/NYT last poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I sure hope Bob Schieffer has copies of all of Dear Leader’s speeches tonight…

d1carter on October 22, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Oh, goody! I’ve been waiting to hear what Obama said at Rashid Khalidi’s going away party.

Oh, wait. Never mind.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I’m expecting Obama to be overtly aggressive, obnoxious, interrupt, be rude, insist that Romney doesn’t know what he’s talking about and/or is lying, and has no experience. Of course, in keeping with all of the other three debate moderators, the moderator will assist Obama in this effort.

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

ditto

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

It might not look like it now Blake, but I have a feeling it’s still going to happen. At least a spread where there will be no doubt.

hawkdriver on October 22, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Two wishes, hawk;

1. A popular vote well outside the margin of fraud.
2. 300+ EV’s

That will do.

massrighty on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

the race is even among men – tied at 47 percent.

I don’t believe this.

Key West Reader on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

dKos is all excited about NC early voting numbers. They think the turnout will look like the RV poll numbers. Anyone buying that?

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Poor little creature. You’re drowning on dry. Grasping and clutching.

Poor thing. Poor, poor little thing.

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Two wishes, hawk;

1. A popular vote well outside the margin of fraud.
2. 300+ EV’s

That will do.

massrighty on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

those are good ones :)

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I see GumMeAndPollMe is out of rehab

faraway on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Considering that poll, they are being rather generous to Obama. Obama is in trouble. BTW, try looking at that poll this time in 2008.

milemarker2020 on October 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

BTW, Obama leads Romney 48-46 in that CBS/NYT poll.

Are you guys going to get excited about being down 2 pts?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

And I hate to break it to everyone, but when Gallup comes back to reality tomorrow, Obama will have a decent lead in the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No, but it’s (Gallup) been “Right” as in favorable result for Romney ever since that huge outlier Sunday sample.

Bottom line is there are two outlier polls right now…Gallup and IBD/TIPP. And those basically cancel each other out. At least until tomorrow when Gallup should be more reasonable with the bad sample out.

gumbyandpokey on October 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

begala just lost his keys to the executive washroom right there

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

356/182 55/44 Romney.
Senate R 55/45
HOR gains 14 more R seats.

Believe it.

jukin3 on October 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

I didn’t think I could hate anyone as much as I hate Oblameo but gumboy is coming in a very close second.

BeachBum on October 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Suffolk called it right when they said VA, FL, and NC were going RED and they would stop polling them.

CBS/NY Slimes or ABC polls are about as credible as Debbie Wasserman-Schultz/Stephanie Cutler.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

BTW, Obama leads Romney 48-46 in that CBS/NYT poll.

Are you guys going to get excited about being down 2 pts?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

You’re running out of polls to boast about.

The Count on October 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

2008:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,351,2226
Democrats: 445525 (32.97%)
Republicans: 257936 (19.09%)
Difference: 13.88%

2012:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,047,928
Democrats: 305,670 (29.17%)
Republicans: 236,651 (22.58%)
Difference: 6.59%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

The margin is pretty much unchanged from CBS/NYT last poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Tell me… In the basement where you live, do you have one of those giant sized hamster balls where you spin it round and round and round and you bump into walls and stuff? I know it made my hamster retarded.

/Just curious.

Key West Reader on October 22, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I won’t be happy until he has given up on O-I-H-O

The Notorious G.O.P on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

“dKos is all excited about NC early voting numbers. They think the turnout will look like the RV poll numbers. Anyone buying that?

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM”

Another day, another report of the crappy Romney early voting/GOTV.

You would have thought the Romney campaign would take this seriously with the way Obama obliterated McCain with early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

A little election humor:)

http://youtu.be/u2eojFZ0c20?t=36s

kcd on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

OT: Tarrant County (Fort Worth, Arlington, TEXAS) broke the all-time record for early voting, today … Over 30K, no party breakdown to share, yet.

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Bubububut DKos just said an hour ago that Obama wasn’t giving up on NC!

What gives?

tkyang99 on October 22, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Update: Obama’s giving up on NC, says Begala

No biggie.
I’ll celebrate when he gives up on CA !

burrata on October 22, 2012 at 8:03 PM

How many EVs do states 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, and 57 have?

That could put the world’s smartest man in history over the top.

jukin3 on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Hey, gumby, who would you rather be with two weeks to go: Romney or Obama?

Would you rather have the momentum or believe that your GOTV can out-turnout your 2008 base numbers b/c you’re being decimated with indies?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I hope Romney has a good debate tonight and I will pray for his health and success tonight and during this campaign.

Go Mitt!

Philly on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Note to O: When women tell you they’re concerned about “labor,” they’re not referring to the last stages of pregnancy.

Allah,
You should get an award for that line.

rob verdi on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

An incumbent, from president to county commissioner to city councilman to dog catcher, who is at less than 50% two weeks out from an election, is a fish flopping in the boat, and the late deciders always break about 2-1 for the challenger, delivering the mallet to the head.

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Nope !
Can’t link, atm, but Drudge has a link about the NC voting … Like, thousands voting who’d have to be 110+ years old !

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Obama seems to readily give up on entire segments of the electorate–whole states, white middle class suburbanites, married women, what-have-you.

And liberals had the nerve to harp for a year calling Sarah Palin a ‘quitter’?

Liam on October 22, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I hope Romney has a good debate tonight and I will pray for his health and success tonight and during this campaign.

Go Mitt!

Philly on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Amen

gophergirl on October 22, 2012 at 8:05 PM

CBS says that the race is tied among men? LOL… Romney will carry men by 15 points on elections day… They have called a lot of liberal men in their stupid poll…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 8:05 PM

. Note to O: When women tell you they’re concerned about “labor,” they’re not referring to the last stages of pregnancy

Lool, allah, you’ve made my day :)….It’s turns of phrases like this one above that makes allah a national treasure :)…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 8:05 PM

A little election humor:)

http://youtu.be/u2eojFZ0c20?t=36s

kcd on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

OOOOPS! I boo-booed! Disregard. I will get the right one up.

kcd on October 22, 2012 at 8:05 PM

***** Alert *****

Photo: Paul Ryan speaks at a debate watch party in Grand Junction, Colo. – via @AlexNBCNews

14 mins ago from instagram.com by editor

http://instagram.com/p/RGoIfNTAsA/

canopfor on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Romney is so far ahead… The Nobel Prize Committee is considering him for a Peace Prize.

faraway on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Good Lord!! I haven’t been in the loop for the past few days, and OMG! This is really happening huh?!

The left is so out of touch, and that 1st debate was way more significant than they thought. NOTHING ELSE WILL WORK AT THIS POINT — VP RYAN IT IS :D (because that’s really who I’m voting for – FRomney!)

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Whining and pining, little troll,
Fretting and worrying dismal poll.
Wither will you wander, do you know?
Champion fallen, down you go!

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

http://youtu.be/u2eojFZ0c20?t=20s

Not sure I did this right, let me know.

kcd on October 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Another day, another report of the crappy Romney early voting/GOTV.

You would have thought the Romney campaign would take this seriously with the way Obama obliterated McCain with early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Yeah, the Obama GOTV machine is historic, historic, I’ m telling you!! Same like the Wisconsin one :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

“This is what is known as a “Cascade Event.””

What cascade?

The margin is pretty much unchanged from CBS/NYT last poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:57 PM

You only read the topline numbers and ignore the internals. Take PPP since it’s friendly to beta males like you:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Obama’s up 50/46 with women, 61/33 with Hispanics, 85/9 with African Americans, and 50/39 with young voters nationally:

In 2008

Obama won women by 13 points vs 4 now
Obama won hispanics by 36 vs 28 now
Obama won blacks by 90 vs 76 now
Obama won young voters by 34 vs 11 now

And he won independents by 8 vs losing them by 8 now.

Take all this together and Obama is in major trouble.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

the race is even among men – tied at 47 percent.

I don’t believe this.

Key West Reader on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Not only it is not believable but it is impossible. Romney will carry men by 15 points on Elections Day and is going to win the elections by 4 to 5 points… This stupid CBS poll which is already way oversampling democrats is also way oversampling democrat men…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Gumballs is still spinning I see. Who’s archiving his greatest hits?

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

b/c you’re being decimated with indies?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

You shouldn’t use those big words!

/

Key West Reader on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

356/182 55/44 Romney.
Senate R 55/45
HOR gains 14 more R seats.

Believe it.

jukin3 on October 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

“Waiter, I will have what Jukin is having”….

hillsoftx on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

the way Obama obliterated McCain with early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

This ain’t 2008.

Look y’all, y’know those citizen journalists you keep hearin’ about?

You are them. Instead of just writing “I voted today”, give some real information.

Where?
When?
Attitude of voters and workers?
number of people voting – polling locations post a running tally of votes cast. Get it, interpret it with the other information you already have and you have a data point.

Every body has to decide when anecdotal data points turn into information that can be extrapolated.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

thanks canopfor…I haven’t seen nearly enough pics of Ryan :) Would be awesome to watch the debate with Ryan!

CoffeeLover on October 22, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Romney is so far ahead… The Nobel Prize Committee is considering him for a Peace Prize.

faraway on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Fars for the win!

hillsoftx on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

It was the beginning of the end for the DNC in NC when they shut out local vendors and brought in out-of-state businesses in their stead in order to kiss union ass. NC is a right to work state, and the local guys were on fire when Ojesus and Co. brought in the outside help and left them standing in the corner.

Karma, baby!

hillbillyjim on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

is a fish flopping in the boat, and the late deciders always break about 2-1 for the challenger, delivering the mallet to the head.

TXUS on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

That’s called “Crappy flopping” ( pronounced croppie…it’s a fish native up north of Texas a ways)!

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

BTW, Obama leads Romney 48-46 in that CBS/NYT poll.

Are you guys going to get excited about being down 2 pts?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

BTW, Romney trails Obama by just 2 inthat CBS/NYT poll.

Are you going to get excited about Obama at 48%?

Spliff Menendez on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Poll fatigue??? not when analysis is coming from you and Ed… I prefer you though for those snarks :-)

antisocial on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Another day, another report of the crappy Romney early voting/GOTV.

You would have thought the Romney campaign would take this seriously with the way Obama obliterated McCain with early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Hopefully Romney’s GOTV effort is as terrible as Scott Walkers.

midgeorgian on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

That reflects a shift in Romney’s favor; Obama led on terrorism by 11 points as recently as Sept. 29, and on international affairs by 7 points earlier this month.

Hmmm. I wonder what event occurred and has been getting more and more attention by the media that could have caused such a shift.
/////

Bitter Clinger on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

pambi on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Woo hoo!

That’s what I’m talkin’ about.

Tarrant county is redder than Dallas county and Dallas county Romney supporters are revved up.

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

dKos is all excited about NC early voting numbers. They think the turnout will look like the RV poll numbers. Anyone buying that?

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Do you really take these low IQ fools at Daily Kos seriously? Their degree of delusions is beyond belief for them to get excited about North Carolina a state that Obama already gave it up because he is certain to lose it by at least 7 points…

mnjg on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Resist We Much has taken that on.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM

“dKos is all excited about NC early voting numbers. They think the turnout will look like the RV poll numbers. Anyone buying that?

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM”

How do they know who they are voting for? I thought early votes and absentee ballots were not counted until election day..

Anyone know when they are counted?

Barred on October 22, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 22, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Who kidnapped our Lucky Pierre? We want the old Lucky Pierre back.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Two words: Snoopy dances!

Chewy the Lab on October 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Oh, goody! I’ve been waiting to hear what Obama said at Rashid Khalidi’s going away party.

Oh, wait. Never mind.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

The October Surprise..? LOL.

d1carter on October 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

“Hey, gumby, who would you rather be with two weeks to go: Romney or Obama?

Would you rather have the momentum or believe that your GOTV can out-turnout your 2008 base numbers b/c you’re being decimated with indies?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM”

I’m not sure either candidate has the momentum.

But I would rather be the incumbent. The Ohio advantage Obama has is too big to ignore. I don’t know the reason (auto bailout?), but that state refuses to budge from it’s 2 pt Obama lead.

If Obama didn’t have literally the best early voting GOTV in the history of American politics, then Romney’s position wouldn’t be that bad. However, he’s being swamped and won’t be able to make up the considerable early deficit.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Cozmo… its so exciting when you write like that! :)

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

dKos has numbers posted, not just anecdotes.

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Obama’s giving up on NC, says Begala
=====================================

Begala,is a JackWagon Operative,
and is a prime example,as to why KOOL_AID
should be,regulated,crap,I mean BANNED!
(sarc)

canopfor on October 22, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Another day, another report of the crappy Romney early voting/GOTV.

You would have thought the Romney campaign would take this seriously with the way Obama obliterated McCain with early voting.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:02 PM

You just keep plucking that chicken clay boy.

Read it and weep: https://twitter.com/GOP

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 8:14 PM

“BTW, Romney trails Obama by just 2 inthat CBS/NYT poll.

Are you going to get excited about Obama at 48%?

Spliff Menendez on October 22, 2012 at 8:10 PM”

Since I have 100.00 riding on the outcome, I would MUCH rather be on the 48% side.

I have no clue why anyone would be excited to be at 46% and trailing at this late stage.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:14 PM

BTW, Obama leads Romney 48-46 in that CBS/NYT poll.

Are you guys going to get excited about being down 2 pts?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

It’s D+6 and has Obama and Romney tied with men.

So it’s telling me the media’s panicking and putting out garbage polls. That excites me.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

If Obama didn’t have literally the best early voting GOTV in the history of American politics, then Romney’s position wouldn’t be that bad. However, he’s being swamped and won’t be able to make up the considerable early deficit.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

2008:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,351,2226
Democrats: 445525 (32.97%)
Republicans: 257936 (19.09%)
Difference: 13.88%

2012:

Total absentee ballot requests: 1,047,928
Democrats: 305,670 (29.17%)
Republicans: 236,651 (22.58%)
Difference: 6.59%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

lol wut

1984 in real life on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

BTW, Obama leads Romney 48-46 in that CBS/NYT poll.

Are you guys going to get excited about being down 2 pts?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

And re: CBS poll. Yes, I think the crosstabs are screwy (gender gap/O winning indys/support by age/etc), but its still O’s best poll today.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Who kidnapped our Lucky Pierre? We want the old Lucky Pierre back.

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:11 PM

What is a “Lucky Pierre”?

Is that the same as a fortunate pecker?

Inquiring minds want to know.

hillbillyjim on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 8:08 PM

dKos has numbers posted, not just anecdotes.

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Number are numbers. Jibe the first statement with the second.

dKos is all excited about NC early voting numbers. They think the turnout will look like the RV poll numbers. Anyone buying that?

SAZMD on October 22, 2012 at 7:58 PM

cozmo on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 8:14 PM

lol! Love you Flora! Thanks for the link!:)

thatsafactjack on October 22, 2012 at 8:15 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Get some new knee pads, fluffer.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 8:16 PM

“This is what is known as a “Cascade Event.””

What cascade?

The margin is pretty much unchanged from CBS/NYT last poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 7:57 PM

You are pathetic.

Terrye on October 22, 2012 at 8:16 PM

“why didn’t you order extra security Mr. President?” – Bob

“ask Osama Bin Laden about security.” – Barack

Slade73 on October 22, 2012 at 8:17 PM

John McGuirk ‏@john_mcguirk

@NumbersMuncher Yeah, but the internals just look wrong in the context of every other poll. Just plain weird, in fact.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Since I have 100.00 riding on the outcome, I would MUCH rather be on the 48% side.

I have no clue why anyone would be excited to be at 46% and trailing at this late stage.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Because you’re the only one dumb enough to take it seriously.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 8:17 PM

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