ABC/WaPo poll: Romney pulls nearly even with Obama on handling foreign affairs, terrorism; Update: Obama’s giving up on NC, says Begala

posted at 7:47 pm on October 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know you’ve got poll fatigue but we’re in a news holding pattern ahead of the debate. This one’s topical, though: Even before the first words are spoken in Florida tonight, Romney’s surged into a near tie with O on the two core components of foreign policy. Consider it insurance against a poor performance this evening. Barring any catastrophic gaffes, Romney seems to have already met the credibility threshold for the presidency, enough so that he’s even with an incumbent despite the country not yet having heard him talk foreign policy at length. If he does well tonight, he builds on that. If he does “meh,” eh. Probably won’t hurt him any.

With tonight’s debate focused on foreign policy, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds Romney virtually tied with Obama in trust to handle international affairs (49-46 percent, Obama-Romney) and terrorism (47-46 percent), as well as to serve as commander-in-chief of the armed services (48-45 percent). That reflects a shift in Romney’s favor; Obama led on terrorism by 11 points as recently as Sept. 29, and on international affairs by 7 points earlier this month.

In another milestone for Romney, 50 percent of likely voters express a favorable opinion of him overall, while 47 percent see him unfavorably – his highest popularity score of the season, and one of the rare times he’s been numerically above water in this measure. His personal popularity now roughly matches Obama’s 52-46 percent, favorable-unfavorable…

As well as close overall, the contest stands at 51-47 percent, Romney-Obama, in the nine battleground states designated by the ABC News Political Unit – well within the margin of sampling error, and not significantly different from the mid-month 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney, in these same states. But regardless of sampling error, the bigger number now is Romney’s, another indication of the competitiveness he’s showing.

I hope they’re going to poll those battleground states with a bigger sample. A nine-point swing may not be statistically significant in this case, but I’d sure like to know what sort of swing a proper sample is picking up. Strangely, while Romney’s gained ground on foreign affairs, Obama’s gained ground on the economy (he trails by just two), the deficit (he trails by four), and taxes (he leads by 11), which makes this poll the opposite of the CW — Obama’s improved domestically and Romney’s improved on international issues. Also strange is that ABC’s still picking up its largest gender gap of the season, a 14-point lead among women for O and a 12-point lead among men for Romney. A few other recent high-profile polls have shown Romney gaining with women. Proof that the left’s days-long fascination with “binder” references has paid off? Probably not:

Unlike their more conservative cohorts, these women agreed that abortion is not any of the federal government’s business. But they also didn’t believe abortion rights were on the line in the coming election. “It has never changed,” Zebib said. “We’ve had pro-life presidents many times, and it didn’t change. It’s a bumper sticker. They try to divert our attention.”

Eileen touched her friend’s arm. “Most women I know, whether they’re for Obama or Romney, they feel the same thing,” she said. “It’s a distraction. That whole Gloria Steinem thing is old.”…

Romney’s “binders full of women” line, an awkward phrasing that inspired reams of mockery on the Internet, wasn’t changing any minds among the women I spoke to. Democratic partisans saw it as more evidence Romney was out of touch; Republican partisans saw it as of a piece with his business background. “Anyone who’s ever been a professional, ever, knows that’s how you get resumes: in a binder,”43-year-old Republican stay-at-home mother Michele Moss said, rolling her eyes. Only someone who’d never been in the business world — like Obama — would fail to understand that.

The “binders” line didn’t register at all among the undecided women.

Yeah, it’s a strange thing for an ostensibly “progressive” administration to decide that the key to women’s votes runs through abortion and contraception when the most momentous progress they’ve made over the last 50 years has to do with jobs. Note to O: When women tell you they’re concerned about “labor,” they’re not referring to the last stages of pregnancy. Gallup:

Says Laura Genero at AmSpec, “Economics, not reproduction, is the women’s issue of the 21st century. It’s one of the ironies of this election that Mitt Romney– whose wife worked primarily inside the home — has a better grasp of this than President Obama, whose wife worked outside the home.” Tonight’s debate will probably have the smallest effect of the four this year on moving the gender gap one way or another, but we’ll see. Three days or so until the first post-debate polls.

Update: Like I was saying, the bulk of the evidence right now is that the gender gap is closing, not opening. New from CBS:

The poll also shows a narrowing of the gender gap. Women have given the President a nearly double-digit lead in many polls, including the September CBS News/New York Times Poll. Now, however, women support Mr. Obama by five points, 50 to 45 percent (down from 12 points last month); the race is even among men – tied at 47 percent.

Update: Via the Standard, no surprise here:


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If you think that’s a winning formula for Romney, you are in for a rude awakening.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Who’s the governor of your home state little clay boy?

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 8:41 PM

In dumbey’s little parallel universe, it’s Barrett :)

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Who’s the governor of your home state little clay boy?

Flora Duh on October 22, 2012 at 8:41 PM

That’s not fair, Flo.

dumbyandjokey probably doesn’t understand the question. Also, dumbyandjokey is a certified water-head, so disregard the noise that emanates from the little child.

hillbillyjim on October 22, 2012 at 8:44 PM

So Obama is winning absentees by roughly 7% and he’ll be way ahead on in-person early voting. If you think that’s a winning formula for Romney, you are in for a rude awakening.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:33 PM

So, you are assuming that Obama is going to be waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of Romney on in-person early voting. Got any data to back up your assumption?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:45 PM

bullocks bbq in durham…most delicious

cmsinaz on October 22, 2012 at 8:36 PM

+1. One of the only reasons I’ll stop anywhere in Durham anymore.

Twelve Bones in Arden (Asheville) area shouldn’t be missed, either. Avoid Asheville proper. Too hectic.

rogerb on October 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Juan says it’s not true

Slade73 on October 22, 2012 at 8:39 PM

I take Juan’s desperate screechy tone and grating cackles as a sign that democratics are losing badly.

slickwillie2001 on October 22, 2012 at 8:47 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

WaPo new tracking poll has O+1, 49-48. Their last national poll was O+3 while most showed it tied/slight R lead. Romney up 6 in swing states

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 8:47 PM

“a stagnant number for Obama (again, he’s unable to break 50%) and a 2 point jump for Romney spell good news for Obama.”

Being at 49% is a good position to be in. All he needs is a small fraction of the undecideds and the election is his.

This is all common sense.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Juan can go and eat oyster crackers and kiss my … aunt.

hillbillyjim on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

As reticent as I am to repeat this ,it has to be said:
.
The fact that half of people polled consider this clueless ,far left, affirmative action ,community organizing nothing , who should have never gotten within 30 million light years of the presidency to be preferable on anything, particularly foreign affairs, indicates that the Republic is finished.
.
I cannot survive the utter stupidity of this many citizens.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Being at 49% is a good position to be in. All he needs is a small fraction of the undecideds and the election is his.

This is all common sense.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

He’s not at 49%.

Chuck Schick on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Say goodbye to all of your Marxist hopes and dreams, dipshit.

Bye, now.

Y’all have a wonderful night, and don’t slip and trip on your tears.

hillbillyjim on October 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

I need his tears. I’m selling them at CPAC.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Being at 49% is a good position to be in. All he needs is a small fraction of the undecideds and the election is his.

This is all common sense.

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

MobileVideoEngineer on October 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Obama’s giving up on NC, says Begala

North Carolinians,

Possibly the most important race on the NC ballot is for NC Supreme Court. A Democratic Governor’s veto can be overridden with enough numbers in the Legislature, but a Supreme Court decision cannot be overturned without a NC Constitutional Amendment.

Conservatives currently have a 4-3 majority on the NC Supreme Court, and incumbent Conservative Justice Paul Newby is up for re-election.

Please note filling in the “straight-party ticket” on your ballot will NOT cast a vote for President or for Judges!

You MUST explicitly vote for President and explicitly vote for Judges!

Please communicate this to your conservative friends in NC. And please ask them to support the re-election of Paul Newby to NC Supreme Court.

Thank you!

ITguy on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I need his tears. I’m selling them at CPAC.

wargamer6 on October 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

I didn’t know that the libs over at EPA would let you traffic in toxic tears that might just upset the balance of nature and kill tadpoles or some such malarkey…

hillbillyjim on October 22, 2012 at 8:55 PM

It’s looking even stronger for mitt in 2012, than it did for Obama in 08! With all the attempts to Skew these polls by the Obama Jihadi media, Mitt’s still even or ahead in most. Get ready for a 2 on Mitt debate in a few. It should be good! Here’s how Mitt should take on the Obama Jihadi media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 22, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Are you kidding? He’ll bug us for another year with a vote-by-vote ‘analysis’ telling us why he was right all along. And quoting new ‘polls’ to back him up if even he has to get surveys done at grade schools.

Liam on October 22, 2012 at 8:39 PM

No, he’ll be gone after Nov. 6. Axelrod won’t be sending out any more checks to trolls after that.

Right Mover on October 22, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Soledad O’Brien running CNNs focus group….Why didn’t they just have DWS run the focus group?

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 22, 2012 at 8:59 PM

I’m not worried about Benghazi – the world watched that debacle play out on their TV screens. There isn’t anything Team Barky can say or do to undo that damage.

Philly on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

I’ve been rather stunned that he has more than 30%. I don’t think it means things are over, but it does mean there is some serious work to be done in both education and character rehab.

INC on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 PM

51-47 percent, Romney-Obama, in the nine battleground states designated by the ABC News Political Unit – well within the margin of sampling error, and not significantly different from the mid-month 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney

Not significantly different??? WHAT???? That’s freakin HUGE! From down 5 points to up 4? I wonder what would be significant to these morons since a whopping 9 point difference isn’t. Or am I reading it wrong?

Capitalist Infidel on October 22, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Did you stand with the democracy movement in Iran?

Would you have stood with the democratically-elected Hitler?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:24 PM

You cannot have a true democracy without a civil society first.

Democracy, for democracy’s sake alone, is not always a noble goal.

Would it be noble for the majority to decide to enslave a minority?

Resist We Much on October 22, 2012 at 9:25 PM

ITguy on October 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Got it. :)

Bee on October 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Well, the last “debate” is over… 2 weeks until Obama gets the BIG PINK SLIP!!

Khun Joe on October 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Litter box

bazil9 on October 22, 2012 at 10:45 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Litter box

bazil9 on October 22, 2012 at 10:46 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Litter box

bazil9 on October 22, 2012 at 10:46 PM

keep yo head outta the box people

bazil9 on October 22, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Scoop don’t poke.

bazil9 on October 22, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Note to the talking forehead…

In order to maintain marketable credibility (read cash money income stream) the closer election day gets, the more honest you must become.

Thou sir are a prostitute of be verbal sort, and of worth naught to me. Get thee behind me and be gone.

WestTexasBirdDog on October 22, 2012 at 11:50 PM

According to the new poll from the Third Graders at Greener Pastures Elementary School in Columbus Ohio; The most magnificent TOTUS Obama beats poopyhead Romney 76 – 24.

Everones favorite Cartoon Character

Stick a fork in him, he is gone in two weeks.

D-fusit on October 23, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3