Romney, Obama tied in new NBC/WSJ poll

posted at 10:16 am on October 21, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

One of the last pollsters to catch up to Mitt Romney’s momentum in the presidential race has been the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Marist [see update below], which just got done insisting that Obama has a large lead in Iowa — the only pollster to find one in October.  When the latest poll in this series gets released at 6:30 ET today, it will show a dead heat, with Romney now tied nationally at 47% with Obama, in a poll conducted entirely after the second presidential debate:

Heading into Monday’s final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the last national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Having an incumbent at 47% with 16 days to go before the election is bad enough news for Team Obama.  The poll data has not yet been released, but NBC’s First Read has even more bad news in one particular area — the gender gap:

Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.

In 2008, Obama won the election with a +14 gender gap over John McCain — +13 among women and +1 among men — on his way to a 7-point victory in the popular vote.  That advantage has now flipped to Romney, even in the Marist poll.  That’s a sixteen-point flip in the gap, and unless Obama expects a massive female turnout and massive male empathy on November 6th, it’s a very bad sign.

On top of that, both of Rasmussen’s tracking polls continue to show narrow leads for Romney.  Romney leads 49/47 in the three-day national tracking poll four days after the second debate, showing that it had no impact.  Romney leads in the swing-state tracking poll by four for the second day in a row, at 50/46 claiming a narrow majority of the vote.

When the numbers do get released today, pay attention to the independents.  If Romney has a +2 in the overall gender gap and any kind of significant lead among independents, that’s more compelling than the topline numbers — and the late deciders will almost certainly be breaking toward him as well.

Update: I made the mistake of assuming that NBC and WSJ partnered with Marist nationally as well as on state polling.  You know what happens when you assume:

I’ve edited the lead paragraph, and thanks to Neil for the heads-up.


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Gonna be a fun day tomorrow!

New Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Ohio poll comes out!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 AM

So tell us Mr. Romney supporter, why have never once gotten excited about Romney being ahead in the polls. Any shift towards Obama triggers a knee jerk reaction of doom and gloom for Romney. But when poll after poll trends well for Romney, they are always outliers or wrong in some way.

Further proof that you are just here trolling.

ShadowsPawn on October 22, 2012 at 12:19 AM

Gonna be a fun day tomorrow!

New Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Ohio poll comes out!

gumbyandpokey on October 22, 2012 at 12:01 AM

Can’t wait…

What do you think?

Is the sample going to be the same as last time (D35/R26/I35) or are they going to get even more unethical this time out?

A reality check for you. After releasing a poll like they did last time out, it kills your credibility. Predicting a larger % Democratic turnout over Republicans than in historic ’08 whilst giving Republicans the lowest percentage turnout in the states presidential history kills it.

Hey….maybe this is the poll where they start moving towards realistic numbers to try and make like a credible polling outfit so they can keep jobs for next election?

Who knows? All I know is that they are not to be trusted.

Zybalto on October 22, 2012 at 12:22 AM

C-BS/NYT “Poll”?

C-BS was busted 8 years ago for using Fake Documents in order to try and Steal an election for the Democrat nominee.

And the NYT endorsed O’bamna in 2008, and will do so again this year.

No “objectivity” there!

Del Dolemonte on October 22, 2012 at 12:50 AM

When looking at the RCP averages remember that 3/4 or more of he polls there are assuming BIGGER Dem turnout advantages than 2008. Every single poll showing Obama leading does.

Now if you believe that after 4 years of horrible performance and with a candidate Republicans are 30 points more excited about than McCain Obama is going to create record turnout then go ahead and accept these polls. The truth is turnout will likely be D +0 or R + 2. If you apply that sample Romney wins in a landslide..

mitchellvii on October 22, 2012 at 3:25 AM

These polls are all over the place. I am not sure I am buying them anymore. Even with polls having the same D/R/I the results are all over the place.

crosspatch on October 22, 2012 at 4:18 AM

So, considering the GOP declared Obama’s presidency a failure by February 2009 and refused to cooperate with any of his plans, I assume the GOP will not complain when Senate Dems refuse to pass any of Romney’s policies and when Dems declare him a failure February 2013? Ah the cycle continues.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 8:22 AM

The Daily Caller is reporting, via video, how an affiliate of CBS has already called the race for President—for Obama!

“For 17 seconds, Phoenix, Arizona CBS News affiliate KPHO ran a lower third graphic that showed that Obama had won the Nov. 6 election over Gov. Mitt Romney with 99% of the precincts reporting. The lower third graphic appeared around 3:30 p.m. on Oct. 19, during an episode of “The People’s Court.”

Is the MSM “practicing” their THE FIX IS IN MOMENT????????????????????

DixT on October 22, 2012 at 8:41 AM

So, considering the GOP declared Obama’s presidency a failure by February 2009 and refused to cooperate with any of his plans, I assume the GOP will not complain when Senate Dems refuse to pass any of Romney’s policies and when Dems declare him a failure February 2013? Ah the cycle continues.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 8:22 AM

EOs, baby :)…what comes around, goes around….yep, karma’s a beotch, or so they say at least…

jimver on October 22, 2012 at 9:00 AM

So, considering the GOP declared Obama’s presidency a failure by February 2009 and refused to cooperate with any of his plans, I assume the GOP will not complain when Senate Dems refuse to pass any of Romney’s policies and when Dems declare him a failure February 2013? Ah the cycle continues.

libfreeordie on October 22, 2012 at 8:22 AM

Dem controlled Senate for first two years of the Obama presidency, remember? And still Obama was a failure.

You just can’t stomach the idea that Romney will be a better president.

Mitsouko on October 22, 2012 at 9:39 AM

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