When desperation strikes incumbents

posted at 8:31 am on October 20, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s been a while since we’ve had an incumbent President lose an election.  In fact, it was 20 years ago, when George H. W. Bush lost in a three-way fight to Bill Clinton.  What made that election remarkable was that Bush had enjoyed some of the best-ever job approval ratings of any modern American President just a little over a year earlier, into the 80s — unthinkable these days for anyone, Republican or Democrat.  Bush, a decorated veteran of World War II and a longtime player in diplomacy and national security, lost the election to an upstart Governor when the economy turned somewhat sour.

I recall the moment when I realized for the first time — not feared, but realized — that Bush would lose the election.  Bush was campaigning in Michigan at the end of October, trying to whip some energy back into his campaign in the home stretch, a task that would fall far short just a few days later.  Then-Governor John Engler told the Warren, MI crowd that the Bush campaign was “hot” and the Democrats “dead in the water,” which was merely the kind of fantasy all campaigns spin toward the end.

Bush then spoke, and went after Clinton and Al Gore in a personal, demeaning way I’d not heard from the President before then:

At a midday GOP rally at Macomb Community College, the president unleashed a rhetorical fusillade on Bill Clinton and running mate Sen. Albert Gore Jr., attacking their fitness for office, their character and charging, “My dog Millie knows more about foreign policy than these two bozos.”

In particular, Bush targeted Gore, whom he now calls “Ozone Man,” or just plain “Ozone.” “You know why I call him Ozone Man?” Bush said. “This guy is so far out in the environmental extreme, we’ll be up to our neck in owls and outta work for every American. He is way out, far out, man.”

When I heard that, I thought to myself, “What President talks like that?”  Part of the advantage the office gives an incumbent is its gravitas.  Bush’s own history as a diplomat, intelligence executive, and war hero gave him plenty more of that.  Bush abandoned that in the final week in schoolyard name-calling. That’s not why Bush lost the election, of course.  It was, however, the moment that I knew he’d lost it — and was pretty sure he knew he was losing, too.

Keep that in mind when you hear Barack Obama on the stump talking about “Romnesia.”  Those elementary-school attacks using people’s names are something one usually farms out to surrogates (and is pretty lame regardless).  That comes with the grasping of “binders,” literally grasping in Joe Biden’s case (and literally literally, not Bidenesque “literally”), as a major campaign theme. When the President himself starts using attacks like this, it speaks to his desperation more than his opponent’s positions.  It adds more heft to the argument that the first debate wasn’t a fluke, but demonstrated an actual gap in presidential stature between the two men.


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Barry’s an inexperienced street punk, and it shows. No surprise. What a disaster. His election was all about what he represented, not who he was; all about what he said he was going to do, not what he actually did. It is now.

Obama is like the little punks I knew growing up in NYC who were so tough when they were surrounded by their 220 pound football player friends and couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag on their own.

eyedoc on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Just a side point Ohio is down to 18EV’s after the last census and we gains I think 7EV’s in that last census in Red states. Winning Romney’s backyard NH and Ryan’s Homstate WI is 14EV’s and let’s you bypass Ohio to 271 with CO which the Obama camp is already conceding. There is a path around the Ohio firewall if Obama puts all his effort there. The will of the people will lose him WI and NH where he isn’t campaigning hard. He can’t just win an election he is losing by gaming Ohio.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

If Obama thinks he can trust Radical Iran, he’s dangerously naive.

kingsjester on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Besides,with every person here having criticized Romney endlessly for his endless flip-flops, you have very little room to whine. Maybe that’s why it stings.

urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Stings?

Excuse me while I…

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
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Oh, stop it! Yer killin me!

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

“When you don’t have a record to run on, you make big elections about small things.” – Barack Obama, 2008

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

we’ve had a political thread running at my online golf site for months. Thousands of posts from all walks of the political spectrum. Occasional spats but great fun. Yesterday, one of the progs asked the moderator “I honestly think the thread should die. Its scary how divisive politics has gotten.”

Oh man, the thread is great fun now since the mod is ABO

screwauger on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Regarding Ohio, I actually think it’s going to turn around for Romney. SW Ohio (Hamilton County) helped put Obama over the top, and much of that consisted of squishy RINOs and “independents” who wanted to be able to have tears in their eyes while listening to Obama speak from Grant Park on Election Night in 2008.

In 2012, I think they’re embarrassed and mad as hell. I see virtually no Obama signs and virtually no Obama stickers.

Obama may have bailed out the UAW, but he’s trying to kill the fossil-fuel industries. I bet he gets no votes in Ohio’s coal country or in Ohio’s oil and natural gas areas.

Beyond that, Ohio has an interesting U.S. Senate race: very liberal, union supporter Sherrod Brown vs Josh Mandel, Ohio Treasurer. Mandel served two terms in Iraq, and–sorry to play identity politics–he’s a young Jewish guy from an affluent Cleveland suburb.

Finally, Ohio’s a pretty patriotic state. Ohioans don’t like seeing the U.S. project weakness. As a result, I think the Benghazi mess hurts Obama in the eyes of Ohioans.

We’ll see.

BuckeyeSam on October 20, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Thank you for your thoughtful post. The Fox News poll which has Obama up by 3 is D+8. While I think this election is going to be R+5 nationally, I think Ohio is going to be at worst R=D. I presume Romney will concentrate on Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire in the last 16 days of the campaign.

Basilsbest on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Imagine if McCain had actually TRIED TO WIN?

PappyD61 on October 20, 2012 at 8:47 AM

This is the foolishness that passes for commentary from bitter folks who never taste of Ed’s optimism.

McCain had a higher percentage of the national vote than the average of all GOP congressional candidates combined.
He did better than the party did.
McCain ran a good campaign.

itsnotaboutme on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I love this board!

gophergirl on October 20, 2012 at 9:33 AM

A lot depends on how many times Philthadelphians get to vote.

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 9:30 AM

That’s a fair part of it. If ever Voter ID legislation can get passed AND make it to election day without getting screwed by a lefty judge, PA goes from PVI D+2 to Even.

Right now, Romney’s clearly looking at offsetting that with Western PA turnout. Testing the waters at this point, IMO. If things look favorable, perhaps they look more at the Philly suburbs, which could help mitigate the damage of the city itself.

Gingotts on October 20, 2012 at 9:33 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…

urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The Chicago team obviously thinks running on his “record” is radioactive, else they’d be doing so. Anything to win.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 20, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I dunno folks, using political logic from Bush 1 on Bark O’Bummer (my wife’s term for O…) is shaky. Barry has been using smear tactics and scaremongering the whole time, while Bush 1 only slid into that when he got desperate.

It’s not that I don’t think Barry IS desperate now, he is. But he didn’t just start being a Chicago 3rd grader about it.

BlackMamba on October 20, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Romney has been a public figure for too many years and in a very liberal state. Whatever was in his past that could have come out would have and has come out long ago.

Think back a few short months to late spring when Axelrod and his commie gang were champing at the bit to go up against Romney because they had so many weapons to attack him with. Why do you think Occupy Wall Street happened? So they could tie Romney to the evil 1%.

Every thing they have used has failed:

War on Women, offshore accounts, Bain, Mormonism, gay classmate haircuts, contraception and now binders.

And when 70 million Americans saw Mitt and SCOAMF side by side during the first debate (and the last one), they saw the REAL Mitt Romney. And the guy next to him was an empty chair.

Mitt will win. All we have to do is Get Out the Vote!

Rixon on October 20, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Imagine if McCain had actually TRIED TO WIN?

PappyD61 on October 20, 2012 at 8:47 AM

This is the foolishness that passes for commentary from bitter folks who never taste of Ed’s optimism.

McCain had a higher percentage of the national vote than the average of all GOP congressional candidates combined.
He did better than the party did.
McCain ran a good campaign.

itsnotaboutme on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I don’t know about a good campaign, but no Republican could have survived 2008.

rob verdi on October 20, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I used to live in Philly – the entire city is on Welfare and heroin. PA is a very tough pick up for Mitt.

Slade73 on October 20, 2012 at 9:35 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. …

urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Of course he should… *pathead*

Valkyriepundit on October 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I’ve already voted, via absentee ballot, in the great state of Florida. Somewhere a Mormon is smiling.

I really want to see Obama crying on election night, a la Jimmy Carter. That would do my heart good, considering all Obama has done to this country.

Let Obama wail and whine these last few weeks. It won’t do him any good, and it will make for some interesting YouTube videos for historians to examine in the years to come.

I just hope the desperation on the left does not get out of control – before, during and after the election.

Timothy S. Carlson on October 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

If Obama thinks he can trust Radical Iran, he’s dangerously naive.

kingsjester on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

The only trust on Obama’s mind is to trust Iran not to repudiate the deal before November 6.

My bet is Iran wants Obama to win, so they’ll play along to help.

We all know that deal isn’t worth the paper it’s written on, but it’s the effect on the election that on the table here.

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

…suburbs of Philly are full of stupid rich libs

Slade73 on October 20, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Once again… phone ringing = winning sound. Whining = losing sound.

This concludes your public service message.

JohnGalt23 on October 20, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Signed up via Romney campaign website and have made over 200 calls the last 10 days to swing states. Part of my frustration is a number of those contacts I spoke with are firmly in the Obama camp and spew lib media/class warfare talking points re Romney back at me, so I’m well justified in my so-called whining.

But there is a lot of support for Romney–I’d say 50/50. The second debate does seem to have helped Obama some.

And I plan on making 300 more calls over the next two weeks.

This concludes my public service announcement

RepubChica on October 20, 2012 at 9:40 AM

If anyone (yeah, urban elitist, I am talking to you) doubts that real panic hasn’t set in, then look no further than the WaPo this morning because the “reason” for Obama’s loss is already being touted:

The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win.

(The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, we should note, shows him winning whites by just 11 percent.)

In 2008, white voters made up nearly three-fourths of the vote, while Latinos comprised 9 percent. Let’s say that, in the election on Nov. 6, there is a surge in the Latino vote (up to 11 percent of the electorate) and a coinciding drop in the white vote (down to 72 percent).

Given how small the Latino vote remains, the difference between losing it by 36 points — as John McCain did in 2008 — and losing it by 45 points — a worst-case scenario for Romney — amounts to about a 1 percent overall shift in the national race.

Meanwhile, if Romney won the white vote by 22 percent — a 10-point improvement over McCain — that would gain him 7 percent of the national vote over McCain…

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/18/mitt-romney-is-winning-the-white-vote-by-a-lot/

“Obama was a great President. America is just a racist and downright mean country!”

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 9:41 AM

…if you don’t have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from. You make a big election about small things.

And you know what – it’s worked before. Because it feeds into the cynicism we all have about government. When Washington doesn’t work, all its promises seem empty. If your hopes have been dashed again and again, then it’s best to stop hoping, and settle for what you already know.

Barack Obama, DNC Speech, 8/28/2008

Use the Alinsky tactic and make Obysmal/Obombast live up to his rhetoric.

onlineanalyst on October 20, 2012 at 9:41 AM

This election is over.

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 9:41 AM

…suburbs of Philly are full of stupid rich libs

Slade73 on October 20, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Hey! I resemble that remark! j/k

Montogmery County is where all the dumb rich liberals live. They love their idiot liberal Congresswoman, Allyson Schwartz. Delaware Bucks, and Chester counties are the battlegrounds and most people are moderate to conservative. All elected Republicans to Congress in 2010 and I think Romney will carry them handily.

Paul Ryan is appearing in Pittsburgh today. Clearly the latest poll has the Romney camp at least thinking about making a play in PA.

rockmom on October 20, 2012 at 9:42 AM

McCain had a higher percentage of the national vote than the average of all GOP congressional candidates combined.
He did better than the party did.
McCain ran a good campaign.

itsnotaboutme on October 20, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Yup. People who blame McCain for everything don’t understand what was actually going on.

Money, media, GOP fatigue, collapse of the economy, First Black Preezy, etc.

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I think the RNC should sponsor a sweepstakes with explanations of the administration’s handling of the tragedy in Lybia.

Another question is what our Air Force was doing since the last two victims did not die until six hours into the attack and watching smoke and fire engulf fellow Americans followed by mortar fire didn’t used to be in the normal ROEs.

As for our administration, I was told that our beloved president was acting on communication outside normal channels. Someone was very upset about the video knocking Islam. An Islamic source fits perfectly. If it was Muslims that he has a special relationship with, God bless him for trying to use it. However, we can’t have a POTUS listening to hysterics in a neighborhood and valuing scuttlebutt to the point of bypassing our intelligence agencies and common sense.

So, friends of O, please tell him not to do it again. He wouldn’t speak to me.

IlikedAUH2O on October 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Not one person is going to be believe that.

gophergirl on October 20, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Never underestimate the stupidity of the voting public. More than one person would believe Gloria Allred…I’m afraid a LOT of people would believe it. But the later they wait, the more transparently desperate it will seem. Time will tell.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I have no sources to name and am solely responsible for the foregoing. I hope that I shall look the fool.

IlikedAUH2O on October 20, 2012 at 9:46 AM

decent foreign policy…

urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The guy is freaking Gilligan without the likability factor. Everything he and his posse of criminals have touched pertaining to F/P they have screwed up.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 20, 2012 at 9:47 AM

After we hit the eject button Nov 6, we need to let all politicians who are left standing know that they have a choice.

You can serve the people or you can curry favor with the media, but they cannot do both, because most of the media is our sworn enemy by their own choosing. If you try to ally with them, we will strike you down too.

drunyan8315 on October 20, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I’ve heard a few people refer to this Gloria Allred thing- is it supposed to be some bimbo that’s going to accuse Romney of sexual harassment?

BettyRuth on October 20, 2012 at 8:43 AM

If not sexual harassment, someone who worked for him that now claims she was underpaid/overworked, etc. This Chicago crew wallows in sleaze, so I wouldn’t put it past them to try something like this.

However, the closer we get to election day the more transparent it’ll look. We’re about two weeks out…people will see it for what it is. The risk in a very tight race, too, is that the backlash will put Romney over the top…his supporters will circle the wagons, and indies are likely to be turned off by that kind of attack. It’ll prove, once and for all, that President Hope n’ Change has absolutely nothing to run on.

I am worried something like this is going to drop, but it’d be VERY risky for the Obama campaign (and they WILL be associated with it).

changer1701 on October 20, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I see that one of our favorite liberal trolls is out today.. Still prefer Gumby in terms of laughs and giggles. I don’t think that Mittens has this thing won yet. I still need to see either something from Cheeseland or from OHIO that confirms the narrative. But I do like the fact that Florida! Florida! Florida! has been wrapped up a few weeks before the election and it seems like a five point victory. I seem to remember how Chicago was gleeful about demagoguing on Medicare in Florida. That worked out well.

As a related note, for some odd reason, Axelrod and company keep thinking that they can score points against Paul Ryan.. If they lose this thing, then that will probably be looked at as one of Barry’s biggest political blunders. All that Axelrod did with that GWU gambit was significantly raise Ryan’s profile, and all that Biden did in the VP debate was make the guy in his early 40s appear Presidential. Ryan should really get Barry’s whole team fruit baskets after the election for helping him so much with his career.

Illinidiva on October 20, 2012 at 9:50 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…

urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

That’s a good question. Whatever happened to gay marriage? Wasn’t that the issue that was going to really separate Obama and Romney, and cement the vote of everyone under the age of 40? Why isn’t he talking about it AT ALL? Didn’t even squeeze it in to his litany in the first two debates.

Why, it might lead one to think he took up the issue just to please some rich Hollywood donors. Also might lead one to think gay marriage isn’t that popular in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, or Florida.

rockmom on October 20, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Someone may have already posted this…….I haven’t read all the posts made in the last few days.

Mitt Romney 52 percent 342 electoral votes projected at UnSkewedPolls.com

Elections 2012
October 16, 2012
By: Dean Chambers

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-52-percent-342-electoral-votes-projected-at-unskewedpolls-com

avagreen on October 20, 2012 at 9:52 AM

If not sexual harassment, someone who worked for him that now claims she was underpaid/overworked, etc. This Chicago crew wallows in sleaze, so I wouldn’t put it past them to try something like this.

However, the closer we get to election day the more transparent it’ll look. We’re about two weeks out…people will see it for what it is. The risk in a very tight race, too, is that the backlash will put Romney over the top…his supporters will circle the wagons, and indies are likely to be turned off by that kind of attack. It’ll prove, once and for all, that President Hope n’ Change has absolutely nothing to run on.

I am worried something like this is going to drop, but it’d be VERY risky for the Obama campaign (and they WILL be associated with it).

changer1701 on October 20, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Yep. A month ago I would’ve said they’d never try it. Now, I’m not so sure. It would risky now, but might be worth trying for them–there are a LOT of gullible people out there. Anything within a week of the election will be too transparent, as you say…it’s now or never, IMO.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 20, 2012 at 9:53 AM

And I plan on making 300 more calls over the next two weeks.

This concludes my public service announcement

RepubChica on October 20, 2012 at 9:40 AM

…keep the p s a’s coming!…it motivates others!…thank you!

KOOLAID2 on October 20, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I love watching reality bite a liberal socialist in the azz. They never see it coming because they have no reference point.

Tbone McGraw on October 20, 2012 at 9:55 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…

urbane effetist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

You left out killing bin Laden.

Seriously, though. If his “record” is as good as you think it is, why isn’t he running on it instead of making up Lies about his opponent?

F-

Del Dolemonte on October 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Election ended when the banking system nearly collapsed in 2008. No R was going to win after that.

Illinidiva on October 20, 2012 at 9:16 AM

That was the “electronic run on the bank” that Kanjorski described, and the “this sucker is going down” remark attributed to W. Has an authoritative and realistic explanation of the cause of the collapse ever emerged? Maybe I missed it, but I don’t recall such information.

bofh on October 20, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Yup. People who blame McCain for everything don’t understand what was actually going on.

Money, media, GOP fatigue, collapse of the economy, First Black Preezy, etc.

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I think the fact we are having a tough time beating an Obama with a terrible record and no new proposals shows that it didn’t matter in 2008.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Ras Swing State Tracking Saturday

R 50
O 46

bgibbs1000 on October 20, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I used to live in Philly – the entire city is on Welfare and heroin.
Slade73 on October 20, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Welfare and heroin. One is highly addictive and destroys lives; the other has to be administered by a needle.

86 on October 20, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Seriously, though. If his “record” is as good as you think it is, why isn’t he running on it instead of making up Lies about his opponent?

Del Dolemonte on October 20, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Urban troll thinks he is smarter than The Boys From Chicago. Probably an NYC thing.

That and/or the troll is starving for attention this morning.

farsighted on October 20, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I think the fact we are having a tough time beating an Obama with a terrible record and no new proposals shows that it didn’t matter in 2008.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM

A tough time?

It’s going to be a landslide

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Yep. A month ago I would’ve said they’d never try it. Now, I’m not so sure. It would risky now, but might be worth trying for them–there are a LOT of gullible people out there. Anything within a week of the election will be too transparent, as you say…it’s now or never, IMO.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 20, 2012 at 9:53 AM

If there’s no movement towards Obama this week, it’ll probably drop late in the week or over the weekend. The media of course will be all over it, and it’ll put the Romney camp on the defensive. Not a great position to be in, but the Obama team won’t come up smelling like roses either.

changer1701 on October 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I am being very cautiously optimistic about Romney winning.

That being said with desperation many things might happen. I expect an avalanche of lost military ballots, fake ballots, ballot stuffing, and basic thuggery like the New Black Panther Party to try and steal the election.

Remember Al Franken?

We must be vigilant.

skatz51 on October 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Part of my frustration is a number of those contacts I spoke with are firmly in the Obama camp and spew lib media/class warfare talking points re Romney back at me, so I’m well justified in my so-called whining.

RepubChica on October 20, 2012 at 9:40 AM

First, well done on using Romney’s call from home software, and on making those calls. Good effort.

Second, justified or not… no whining! The Bush 2004 team reportedly had a motto… optimism is mandatory. Forget the built in biases. Not a damned thing you can do about it, other than looking to people you are calling like you are confident in victory.

Third, the fact that you are getting negative pushback is, believe it or not, a really good sign. It means we aren’t just trying to shore up our base. We’re playing on their ground calling conservative Dems and Dem-leaning independents. If this was the McCain campaign, you’d be calling Republicans, making sure they were still on board.

Keep it up… 17 days to go!! :)

JohnGalt23 on October 20, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Someone could have a lot of fun by plotting the frequency of the the word “polls” in MSM news stories over the past few weeks.

Talk about “fiscal cliffs”, that graph would show a “verbal cliff”! Only a few weeks ago in the MSM it was polls, polls, and more polls. All of a sudden now you can listen to NPR all day and never hear the word “poll” spoken.

Does anyone here wonder why? Me neither.

drunyan8315 on October 20, 2012 at 10:07 AM

It’s going to be a landslide

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Actually I think that could happen. I think the turnout could be at least +2R and that would be a landslide having said that we now have this election to compare to 2008 and it makes the obstacles like Money, MSM effect clearer. I stand by saying if you didn’t have Obama’s record and poor debate performances like we didn’t in 2008 it was impossible to pull probably anyone over the finish line.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:08 AM

changer1701 on October 20, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The more time Obama spends under 50% as an incumbent the less likely his chances become.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:10 AM

After the election, it’s going to be interesting to watch this Obama Admin unwilling to relinquish power. Just watch.

Deep Timber on October 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Dang…..I was at that rally. Remember having a similar feeling

Animal60 on October 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Oh oh I get what you’re saying, sorry.

I’ve been reluctant to let myself entertain the “landslide” idea.

In the last week or so, though, we’ve seen a shift in many states; some moving from “Leans Obama” to toss ups. Some from toss ups to “Leans Romney.”

The third debate will simply finalize the trend we have witnessed.

My prediction is Romney gets 52.9-53.9 percent of the vote.

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

BOOM!

Gravis has them TIED in Ohio. 41/32/27, MOE +/- 2.2

* R +6 w/men (50 to 44 percent)

* O +4 w/women (49 to 45 percent). Surprisingly low.

* 87% of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama

* 92% of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney

* R +19 w/Independents (52 to 33)

* O approval rating 44. Disapproval at 50.

* Right track/wrong track: 43/49

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Also might lead one to think gay marriage isn’t that popular in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, or Florida. any state where it has been on the ballot ever.
rockmom on October 20, 2012 at 9:51 AM

FTFY

happytobehere on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

No, he’ll get even more than that

It’s just going to be a bloody mess for the Obama camp. I really can’t wait

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 10:13 AM

There are many reasons for Obama to lose the election, but this Libya clusterfluke is criminal. The government sent the four people into a volatile situation, when help was requested the phone line in DC! went dead. All to protect a rank amateurs warped and twisted view of the world. How could anybody not fall under the God like wisdom and messianic radiance that Obama was eminating? Barack Obama is a total fraud, even his name is false. Barry Sotero is a pathetic lying, facade of a person. Yet millions voted for their hopes and desire for change, only to see him laugh at their stupidity. Here is a tip Libs, when someone promises you fullfilment and has a catchy slogan, but doesn’t have the life experiences to back up the rhetoric, they are playing you for a fool. But as a moron philosopher once stated ” We have to vote for it to see what’s in it.”

stormridercx4 on October 20, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I think the fact we are having a tough time beating an Obama with a terrible record and no new proposals shows that it didn’t matter in 2008.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Of course it mattered in ’08. Not a big McCain fan, but any Republican would’ve found it very difficult in that environment.

As for now, the bottom line is it is tough to knock off an incumbent. Not only does a challenger have to show he’s up to the job, he also has to convince a lot of people from the previous election that the guy they supported needs to be replaced. And, I don’t think it can be overstated how big a role the DNC-media has played in protecting him. Romney’s gotta fight against all that, plus a campaign that’s raised hundreds of millions in an all-out effort to demonize him.

Given the uphill climb, Romney’s in a good spot.

changer1701 on October 20, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Keep it up… 17 days to go!! :)

JohnGalt23 on October 20, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I certainly will, patriot, and will not be deterred by the occasional cussing and hanging-up by Obama zombies–ever notice what shiny, happy people support that guy?

RepubChica on October 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM

yeah, this was the first time obama has acted like an desperate adolescent. what a shock.

t8stlikchkn on October 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

If Obama thinks he can trust Radical Iran, he’s dangerously naive.

kingsjester on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

.
About Iran………..

Hopey has no need to do an October surprise deal with Iran since Joe Biden chastised Paul Ryan, on National TV, assuring us that Iran was ” years away from a nuke” or something.

He even laughed about it.
So it can’t be a BFD ? Right ?

If Hopey even tried to pander to the Iranians at this time, meddle if you will, to USE THEM as an attempt to appeal to the electorate……. Then President Flexible will be seen totally untrustworthy, willing to sell out America for his ego’s sake. And the Medvedev clip will loop 24/7 until Nov. 6.
Morris is just a little too WND on this.

FlaMurph on October 20, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Romney hits 50% in Ras swing state polls for the first time.

Now leads by 4: 50-46

Zybalto on October 20, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Interestingly, I was out driving through a very affluent section of Fairfax County, VA the other day — Republican country, generally — and was surprised how many Obama sins I saw.

You shouldn’t have been. Fairfax County has not been red for decades, if it ever was. Lot of government workers live here.

mrsknightley on October 20, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Obama’s campaign has been nothing but dirty tricks. None of them work. He’s inept politically and frankly everyone is sick of him. Even some Dems. He has not kept his promises and lies at every turn. He’s spent our money with no reguard to any consequences for him except for now. The consequences are about to hit him and he knows it’s coming. Mitt was over 50% this week for the first time. Barry hasn’t stayed a that level in forever. The rest of the polls are going to be trending in Mitt’s favor soon. Little Barry has a record and it hasn’t been a good one. Most voters understand that.

We had lunch the other day with friends that are totally in the tank for Obama. The Leftist government worker on a pension. Even they know it’s not good for Barry. They just want the election over with because they know it’s going to be bad for the Once. This is such a huge change from last time. No confidence at all.

BetseyRoss on October 20, 2012 at 10:19 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…
urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

I hope that is a joke.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 9:18 AM

…no…there just is not enough government allocated toward mental health…so they seem to function amongst us!…and that’s not a joke!

KOOLAID2 on October 20, 2012 at 10:20 AM

…decent foreign policy…

urbane effetist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The Obama “Sea level’s will rise up” Mid East Policy Doctrine is to the discriminating eye an abysmal failure.

Signed,
Amb. Stevens

RepubChica on October 20, 2012 at 10:21 AM

The third debate will simply finalize the trend we have witnessed.

My prediction is Romney gets 52.9-53.9 percent of the vote.

blatantblue on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

People have forgotten Obama is going to have float a new Libya story which by definition of the other stories in conflict with each other will have to conflict with some part of them.

He can stonewall which is probably what he will do but then what? He will look like a d*ck after the third debate and people aren’t taking that into account this week. The third debate could be the one history points to as the back-breaker. I can’t as hard as I try figure out how he comes out smelling like anything but a rat after the FP debate and I have tried my damnest to think how he can pull anything else off. The Romney camp is busy as we speak telling Romney how to cut off his every off ramp and Romney is smart and can do it.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

BOOM!

Gravis has them TIED in Ohio. 41/32/27, MOE +/- 2.2

* R +6 w/men (50 to 44 percent)

* O +4 w/women (49 to 45 percent). Surprisingly low.

* 87% of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama

* 92% of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney

* R +19 w/Independents (52 to 33)

* O approval rating 44. Disapproval at 50.

* Right track/wrong track: 43/49

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

A D+9 sample. Romney leads indy’s by 19 and has 5% more rep support than Obama has of dems. Romney is winning Ohio. probably by 5 points. The disapproval number alone is telling.

bgibbs1000 on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

It’s been a while since we’ve had an incumbent President lose an election. In fact, it was 20 years ago, when George H. W. Bush lost in a three-way fight to Bill Clinton.

And many political pros think that only happened because of Perot.

That’s why I find the comments of Laura Ingraham (I think I’ve got her views right) and others that “if the Republicans can’t win this one, they might just as well give up as a party” so frustrating and so wrong. Unseating an incumbent President is HARD. Sure, Romney has advantages like the sluggish economy, but he also has the legacy of Bush (especially the Iraq War) and unseating our first black president to contend with. If Romney pulls this off, it will be a major achievement.

bobs1196 on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

A D+9 sample. Romney leads indy’s by 19 and has 5% more rep support than Obama has of dems. Romney is winning Ohio. probably by 5 points. The disapproval number alone is telling.

bgibbs1000 on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Yep. Turnout in Obama’s “magic” year was D +5. He can’t replicate 2008 much less surpass it.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:26 AM

The disapproval number alone is telling.

bgibbs1000 on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

There is a clear trend in polling for Obama as evidenced by various breaking polls the last week–his approval #’s are going down.

RepubChica on October 20, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Paul Ryan is appearing in Pittsburgh today. Clearly the latest poll has the Romney camp at least thinking about making a play in PA.

rockmom on October 20, 2012 at 9:42 AM

The Greater Pittsburgh Airport is geographically close to Ohio and WV coal country to draw supporters from more than PA, too. The mood generally is to “Fire Obama!”

It will be interesting to learn the actual number of attendees since the Pittsburgh media (except for the Scaife-owned newspaper) are generally in the tank for the Dems.

onlineanalyst on October 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM

BOOM!

Gravis has them TIED in Ohio. 41/32/27, MOE +/- 2.2

* R +6 w/men (50 to 44 percent)

* O +4 w/women (49 to 45 percent). Surprisingly low.

* 87% of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama

* 92% of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney

* R +19 w/Independents (52 to 33)

* O approval rating 44. Disapproval at 50.

* Right track/wrong track: 43/49

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

A D+9 sample. Romney leads indy’s by 19 and has 5% more rep support than Obama has of dems. Romney is winning Ohio. probably by 5 points. The disapproval number alone is telling.

bgibbs1000 on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

OMG D+9 and women over represented 53 to 47 and indies under represented in this poll, Obama is toast. He may as well start packing right now.

They gave Obummer every advantage they could in this poll and still only tied, the precedent is finished!

I am ready to bet big money on Romney, woot intrade here I come!

Skwor on October 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Unseating an incumbent President is HARD. Sure, Romney has advantages like the sluggish economy, but he also has the legacy of Bush (especially the Iraq War) and unseating our first black president to contend with. If Romney pulls this off, it will be a major achievement.

bobs1196 on October 20, 2012 at 10:22 AM

There is a reason people quote stats like no President has been re-elected with unemployment at 8%.

Unseating an incumbent with even a neutral record is hard. Unseating an incumbent with bad numbers on the economy has been the standard and that is what people are saying.

I would change that sentiment though to this. If Obama gets re-elected with the Romney campaign running a very decent campaign we have lost the country.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

yeah, and when msm starts asking itself what Romney cabinet will look like and if Romney can govern with a 50-50 Senate, you know that they are somewhere between depression and acceptance

runner on October 20, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I really want to see Obama crying on election night, a la Jimmy Carter. That would do my heart good, considering all Obama has done to this country.

I want to see that bottom lip stuck out as he looks at his shoes, while Mitt places his hand on the Bible to be inaugurated.
How will Michelle present herself? A sunny smile or angry black woman with a chip on her shoulder living in a “downright mean” country? Or maybe she’ll find an excuse to not show up at all.

tpitman on October 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

yeah, and when msm starts asking itself what Romney cabinet will look like and if Romney can govern with a 50-50 Senate, you know that they are somewhere between depression and acceptance

runner on October 20, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The real joke on them is When Romney wins there is no way the senate will be 50/50 he has enough coat tails to easily give us the senate back. I will be watching the sky for reporters falling from buildings on Nov 7.

Skwor on October 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I dunno folks, using political logic from Bush 1 on Bark O’Bummer (my wife’s term for O…) is shaky. Barry has been using smear tactics and scaremongering the whole time, while Bush 1 only slid into that when he got desperate.

It’s not that I don’t think Barry IS desperate now, he is. But he didn’t just start being a Chicago 3rd grader about it.

BlackMamba on October 20, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Agreed.
Also, the rhetoric Zero is using plays well to his base (have you seen our trolls?). The same cannot be said about Bush 41. His base found it offensive and beneath the office.

stvnscott on October 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…
urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Then why isn’t he, it it’s so “solid”?

Cleombrotus on October 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

I am ready to bet big money on Romney, woot intrade here I come!

Skwor on October 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

You’ll need a credit card not drawn on an American bank…

JohnGalt23 on October 20, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Or maybe she’ll find an excuse to not show up at all.

tpitman on October 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Divorce proceedings started between Election Night and Inauguration Day?

Timothy S. Carlson on October 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Skwor on October 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM

If they vote for Romney they aren’t going to split back to Demoncrat Senators. People might forget this is the re-elect of the class of 2006. 23 Dems, 10 Rep. They don’t defend this much ground in a Republican turnout that would elect Mitt.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

The picture on this story is priceless.

Mitt in the background, the adult bemused by the clown in front.

patch on October 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

In 2008, Obama beat John McCain in Ohio by 8% among independents. Today, Romney leads Obama with independents by 19 points. That’s a 27 point swing. Not even SEIU & ACORN can manufacture enough Gumby & Pokey votes to compensate for that.

Ohio — per RuPoll — “in the bag,” “locked in,” “cemented,” “set in stone”? I think not.

Stay thirsty, my friends…but, when you toast, toast to “Mitt is Toast.”

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

In 2008, Obama beat John McCain in Ohio by 8% among independents. Today, Romney leads Obama with independents by 19 points. That’s a 27 point swing. Not even SEIU & ACORN can manufacture enough Gumby & Pokey votes to compensate for that.

Ohio — per RuPoll — “in the bag,” “locked in,” “cemented,” “set in stone”? I think not.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Actually sounds as if it is going from those numbers… just not in the way Poke Me would like it.

Gingotts on October 20, 2012 at 10:46 AM

growing up in NYC

eyedoc on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Me too, eyedoc. Whereabouts?

IrishEi on October 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

FlaMurph on October 20, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Good point about Biden. I had forgotten about that.

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…
urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Saved? Heh. And at what cost? Health care STILL 30 Million will be uninsured and at what cost? Gays? How long did it take him to change course on marriage? Women? Tell me about HIS economy’s effect on women and families. What about the unemployment rates for women and blacks? Foreign policy: Optimal.

CW on October 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:41 AM

People have even written articles about “How is Obama losing Independents in every poll and still ahead?”

We might be shocked on Election day by the basic fact that the Democrats do not in most states outnumber Republican and a MAJORITY of independents like these polls keep saying

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Unseating an incumbent with even a neutral record is hard. Unseating an incumbent with bad numbers on the economy has been the standard and that is what people are saying.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:29 AM

See 1936. Beating incumbents, especially if their party has had only one term, is really hard. Which is why I’m so glad at this point that Mitt Romney is the nominee. Nobody else in the field (no, not even my standard-bearer, Dr Paul) could have raised this much money, organized this well, and looked this presidential. The game is tied, it’s approaching the two-minute warning, and we have the ball.

Which is also why it is so important to make our phone calls, and knock on our neighbors’ doors.

Which reminds me… any Silver Staters out there… Nevada early voting begins today. Get out to your local Albertson’s or Von’s (in Clark Co. or at any number of convenient locations in Washoe Co

(If you live in the rurals… sorry, you’re on your own)…

Vote early, and vote often. :)

JohnGalt23 on October 20, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Interestingly, I was out driving through a very affluent section of Fairfax County, VA the other day — Republican country, generally — and was surprised how many Obama sins I saw.

urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

.
Complete and utter lie… I’m also a Virginian and have lived in NoVa and CV for the last 14 years. NoVa is the most liberal bastion in the commonwealth and Fairfax County is unabashedly, definitely, uncompromisingly liberal Democrat. You are the biggest liar or the most ignorant poster of Hot Gas. I vote liar.

ExpressoBold on October 20, 2012 at 10:55 AM

When the DNC has to borrow $15 million from the Bank of America in order to stay afloat (while Obysmal won’t “share the wealth” from his own campaign war chest) AND the Dems’ convention is held in the BoA stadium, then I can only conclude that Obombast is quite big enough to fail since he is relying on “fat-cat bankers” to float his con game.

onlineanalyst on October 20, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 10:49 AM

If “we” are shocked, just think how flabbergasted the MSM will be. They declared “Mitt is toast!” in mid-September.

It’s starting to look like they may soon have to choose between “We are hopelessly out-of-touch and don’t know what we are talking about at all!” or “Mitt is Lazarus!”

What am I saying? I’ve already written what they will say:

“America is a racist and downright mean country!”

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Vote early, and vote often. :)

JohnGalt23 on October 20, 2012 at 10:53 AM

My oldest son, nephew that lives with us, my wife, SIL, BIL, their son and myself will be making the trip next week. All together.

VegasRick on October 20, 2012 at 11:01 AM

According to Politico (the unofficial Obysmal HQ), the Won-Hit Wonder’s campaign is reverting to Bain attacks for its strategy. (You can make binder on how successful that tired refrain will be.)

Meanwhile Obombast is cramming for his finals at Camp David. Heh!

onlineanalyst on October 20, 2012 at 11:03 AM

ExpressoBold on October 20, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I would chalk this up to the same campaign trick the Obama people have been using since Hillary. Tell the other side they haven’t a shot (think about it why bother unless that helps your guy) and then watch their numbers go down as weak supporters give up giving money, time and for the weakest supporters their time at the polls.

The psychological warfare of the left never ends. That is why they are so toxic and can never lead this country to greatness. They can’t lead by example they have to constantly whack people down or into line. I hate them deep down for this.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 11:03 AM

He should be running on his very solid record. Saved the economy, reformed health care, major Wall Street reform, strong effort on gays and women, decent foreign policy…
urban elitist on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The fact that you could post something like this, given Obama’s fairly clear record of failure, suggests to me that there are virtually no conditions under which you would acknowledge Obama’s failure as president. I can assure you that the majority of your countrymen are not similarly afflicted.

ghostwriter on October 20, 2012 at 11:03 AM

The will of the people will lose him WI and NH where he isn’t campaigning hard. He can’t just win an election he is losing by gaming Ohio.

Conan on October 20, 2012 at 9:31 AM

WI, NH and Maine voters spoke decisively on this subject recently and the socialists got their asses kicked.

dogsoldier on October 20, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I just hope the desperation on the left does not get out of control – before, during and after the election.

Timothy S. Carlson on October 20, 2012 at 9:36 AM

There certainly are plenty of threats already.

itsnotaboutme on October 20, 2012 at 11:06 AM

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