Rasmussen: Get ready for a small Romney bump out of the second debate

posted at 11:21 am on October 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Today’s presidential tracking poll from Rasmussen shows a two-point gain for Barack Obama, bringing him into a tie with Mitt Romney at 48/48.  At first blush, that looks as though Obama may have righted the ship after the second debate, but Rasmussen warns that the most recent surveys show momentum in the opposite direction:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

These updates are based upon nightly polling and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly one-third of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage. Tomorrow morning (Saturday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate.

One has to know how tracking polls work in order to understand how Romney could be getting a bump while the overall number tracks the opposite direction.  Today’s result dropped the surveying that took place the day before the debate, which apparently wasn’t terribly good for Obama, and retains the day of the debate, which apparently was better for the incumbent President, at least relative to Romney.  The changes involved are relatively minor if one looks at the tracking history anyway.

However, Obama didn’t need to just trim Romney’s sails in that second debate.  He needed an outright victory over the Republican challenger in order to reverse the momentum that now appears to be a preference cascade.  And if Rasmussen is seeing improved standing for Romney in all three post-debate polls, Obama didn’t even achieve the sail-trimming objective.

That’s true with another Rasmussen poll released today.  While the race in Virginia remains very close, Romney has now hit the 50% mark as most voters have settled on their choice:

Mitt Romney has now hit the 50% mark in Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. …

A week ago, Romney led 49% to 47% in Virginia. Prior to this survey, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey here since April.

Ninety-four percent (94%) of likely voters in the Old Dominion say they are certain to vote in this election. Among these voters, Romney leads 52% to 47%.

Romney is +3 with or without leaners.  With leaners, het gets 49% of the independent vote to Obama’s 45%, and amazingly, wins both men (51/47) and women (50/47).  Obama won Virginia in 2008 by six points, 53/47, while winning independents by one (49/48) but men and women by four and seven points, respectively.  Rasmussen uses an R+2 sample, 32/34/33; 2008′s exit polling was D+6 (39/33/27), but 2009′s gubernatorial election was R+4 at 33/37/30.  Independents ended up breaking 2-1 for the GOP in 2009, too — something to keep in mind when looking at late vote momentum.

If nothing else, one can assess at this point that the second presidential debate didn’t do anything to arrest Romney’s momentum — and that’s bad news for Obama as his foreign-policy position erodes ahead of the last debate on Monday.


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New Iowa PPP poll

Romney: 49%
Obama: 48%

This will be a good day. :)

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Libya…the subject that Romney should have won the debate with…just might have cost him the election!
gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 11:03 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

PPP (D) in Iowa has Romney up 1 post-debate, 49-48. PPP’s last poll in Iowa was Obama up 7. Eight point swing since post-DNC.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Is the NH governor’s election always held in presidential election years? I only ask out of curiosity because just about every other state holds their governor elections in off years.

NotCoach on October 19, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I think NC does … we are doing so this year … YAY …
a GOP Gov to go along with the GOP house and senate ….

conservative tarheel on October 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM

If you guys run Choomby out of town, how will you be able to continue to display your mad poll watcher skills?

Norky on October 19, 2012 at 1:33 PM

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

So it seems there was a post-debate bounce… for Romney. Winning the economics argument by 20+ points better than winning the overtalk by 6

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Death of the Obamabots

M2RB: Blue Öyster Cult

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Is the NH governor’s election always held in presidential election years? I only ask out of curiosity because just about every other state holds their governor elections in off years.

NotCoach on October 19, 2012 at 1:21 PM

NH Governor only has a 2 year term. Election held on even number years only.

We’re one of only two states where the Guv only serves a 2 year term (the other is Vermont). Lynchie is finishing his 4th term.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 1:17 PM

4th largest legislature in the world. Indeed, the “Live Free or Die” state flipped back to the red in 2010. That WMUR poll was completely fake. It showed Carol Che Porter up by fifteen also, which is laughable.

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Hadn’t heard about the Che-Porter result. That’s hilarious too!

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Death of the Obamabots

M2RB: Blue Öyster Cult

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Just found out last night that BOC will be doing a show here in NH just up the road from me in a few weeks. May have to go see them lol.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 2:16 PM

New Iowa PPP poll

Romney: 49%
Obama: 48%

This will be a good day. :)

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Thumbs Up.

SparkPlug on October 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

chuck you seem to have a Gumby fixation

lol

gerrym51 on October 19, 2012 at 2:21 PM

lol

gerrym51 on October 19, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Doing yoeman’s work.

As slo-joe would say, stand up for Chuck.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 2:23 PM

It’s called counter-trolling, boys. Every site gets deployed some idiot like gumby to spread misinformation and depress turnout and fundraising. He posts as Greg on Ace of Spades.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 2:34 PM

There is some good news for Obama buried in the numbers: Obama gets 100% of the aging, Marxist-leaning, memoir ghost writing, academic demographic . . .

BigAlSouth on October 19, 2012 at 3:04 PM

The word “bump” has a different meaning now…

right2bright on October 19, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 2:34 PM

What they don’t get is that we consider those guys/gals as being stupid…just plain stupid, they sway nothing, besides bringing people together to laugh at their idiocy.

Often they are engaged just to read the ridiculous posts they produce, and laugh at the fact they actually think they are doing their cause some good…

Now what would be clever is if they were employed by the RNC, that would make sense.

Regardless, they are as amusing as the organ grinders monkey, the DNC grinds out their talking points, and they dance…

right2bright on October 19, 2012 at 3:16 PM

gummyandpokeme, pick up the white courtesy phone…..

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 19, 2012 at 3:26 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
IBD/Tipp poll has Obama up 2, 47-45. Romney up 11 among indys. Sample is D+7 (same as 2008)

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 3:55 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
IBD/Tipp poll has Obama up 2, 47-45. Romney up 11 among indys. Sample is D+7 (same as 2008)

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 3:55 PM

And, yet, turnout is not going to mimic 2008. Obama’s magic is gone.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 4:09 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
IBD/Tipp poll has Obama up 2, 47-45. Romney up 11 among indys. Sample is D+7 (same as 2008)

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Equals Romney up 4 using Gallup’s ID. Romney up 11 with indies is fantastic news.

CNN FL 49/48 Romney, all post-second debate and a R+5 swing.

Overall a great Friday of polling for Rommney – PPP IA and NH especially.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Oh, and Ryan will campaigning be in PA tomorrow. So yesterday’s R+4 PA poll is clearly borne out by their internals. You don’t waste a VP this late in the game on a state behind Obama’s firewall.

Great news!

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:23 PM

“CNN FL 49/48 Romney, all post-second debate and a R+5 swing.

Overall a great Friday of polling for Rommney – PPP IA and NH especially.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:14 PM”

You think the CNN FL poll is a good result?

If they have him only +1 in FL, they will have Obama +2 or +3 in VA and Obama +3 or +4 in OH.

Not a good result at all.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Oh, and the TIPP you keep begging for is 1/3 the sample size as rasmussen so it’s noisy as hell.

Today’s poll says 65+ age group is tied and males are R+2. Garbage.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:30 PM

“Oh, and the TIPP you keep begging for is 1/3 the sample size as rasmussen so it’s noisy as hell.

Today’s poll says 65+ age group is tied and males are R+2. Garbage.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:30 PM”

Can’t disagree with that.

If other CNN swing state polls come out today, they will be bad news for Romney based on their FL result.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:33 PM

IBD/Tipp poll has Obama up 2, 47-45. Romney up 11 among indys. Sample is D+7 (same as 2008)

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Yeah, b/c this year, after 4 years of Obama and him not being able to crack 50% and Romney having a higher favorability rating, it’s going to be +7 dem.

That is likely. Why are you so desperate to get us to believe that Obama is winning? If you are so confident, why not just sit back and wait for it to happen.

the very fact that you have an obsessive compulsion to come here and argue with every single poll showing Romney winning demonstrates just how scarred you truly are about Obama losing.

Monkeytoe on October 19, 2012 at 4:35 PM

You think the CNN FL poll is a good result?

If they have him only +1 in FL, they will have Obama +2 or +3 in VA and Obama +3 or +4 in OH.

Not a good result at all.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:29 PM

I’m terrified.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Can’t disagree with that.

If other CNN swing state polls come out today, they will be bad news for Romney based on their FL result.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:33 PM

So now your hopes lie on “ifs”?

Solid work gummy. I hope Markos kept his receipt on you.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:37 PM

“Can’t disagree with that.

If other CNN swing state polls come out today, they will be bad news for Romney based on their FL result.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:33 PM

So now your hopes lie on “ifs”?

Solid work gummy. I hope Markos kept his receipt on you.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 4:37 PM”

Florida is Romney’s strongest swing state. He will be significantly weaker in both VA and OH. Just common sense…

Be ready for bad news to drop.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:41 PM

I don’t think Ed quite understands what Rasmussen is actually saying. Either way, Obama’s been ahead or tied in every single poll released the past two days sans Gallup.

Typhonsentra on October 19, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Be I’m ready for bad news to drop.

gumbyandpokey

FIFY

xblade on October 19, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Florida is Romney’s strongest swing state. He will be significantly weaker in both VA and OH. Just common sense…

Be ready for bad news to drop.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Your assumption is completely dependent on CNN’s is exactly what will happen on election day in Florida.

I reject this.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 5:18 PM

I don’t think Ed quite understands what Rasmussen is actually saying. Either way, Obama’s been ahead or tied in every single poll released the past two days sans Gallup.

Typhonsentra on October 19, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Good point, as you seem to be some sort of genius.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Obama’s been well under 50% in every poll. An incumbent is toast with these numbers.

Ta111 on October 19, 2012 at 5:45 PM

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