Poll: Romney now leads by one in New Hampshire — and Iowa

posted at 4:41 pm on October 19, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yes, yes, I know, this comes from Kos’s pollster. What can I say? If the left can cling bitterly to Rasmussen as a bulwark against terrible numbers from Gallup, I can cling to this.

RCP’s average already had New Hampshire within a point so the new PPP number there isn’t news. The Iowa number is. This is the first poll in a month showing Romney ahead in the state, notwithstanding his blockbuster debate two weeks ago. NBC’s poll last night, in fact, had O up by eight points in Iowa, a ridiculous figure given that Obama’s worried enough to have campaigned there just two days ago but consistent with the CW that it’s his state to lose.

Is it?

PPP’s newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September.

Mitt Romney’s seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He’s seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama’s approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he’s dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney has a big advantage on the economy in both of these states that seems to be driving his lead. In New Hampshire voters prefer Romney 52/45 on that front and in Iowa it’s 49/45.

The surge in Romney’s favorables is consistent with basically every other poll taken since the demolition in Denver. Interestingly, Iowans think O won the second debate, 45/36, but that hasn’t helped him protect his lead, possibly because the insta-polls taken afterward showed Romney winning on the more important question of the economy. Another interesting bit: No gender gap, despite months of “war on women” yammering and three tedious days of “binders” nonsense.

Obama’s in deep trouble if that margin holds, which is why you’re hearing a lot about abortion (and binders) lately. As for the sample, PPP has it 38R/34D/27I whereas the 2008 exit poll was 34D/33R/33I; everyone’s expecting a redder electorate this year, especially since the GOP’s worked hard on building a registration advantage in Iowa, so the partisan split here doesn’t seem wildly implausible. On the other hand, PPP has O up four points among independents, which cuts sharply against the trend nationally. This is worth watching too:

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge? If that’s true, it’s a real testament to Obama’s organizational effort in Iowa. Exit quotation: “Now it’s a war on women. Tomorrow it’s going to be a war on left-handed Irishmen or something like that.”


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Add all these things up I would say Romney wins 310 EV to 228.

Ta111 on October 19, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Just estimating, or do you have a specific map in mind.

I’m just curious, because 305 is particularly easy to make and 311, but 310 must require something unorthodox…

And yeah it’s pretty sad when I have the pertinent EV combinations half-memorized.

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Ryan going to Pittsburgh tomorrow.

? Must be some legs to the PA polling.

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 5:38 PM

To Paraphrase Billy Jeff Clinton regarding the President:

“There is no THERE, there……”

Tenwheeler on October 19, 2012 at 5:38 PM

DMR: Romney doing better in early voting in Iowa than any other R previously.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM

What part of “broken glass” is the press not getting?

2010?

Wisconsin? Twice?

chick-fil-a?

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Yes.

rob verdi on October 19, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Pat Toomey‏@ToomeyForSenate

Join me and Paul Ryan tomorrow morning at the Pittsburgh Int’l Airport! http://bit.ly/RLuQGj

Retweeted by Jay Cost

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Yes, yes, I know, this comes from Kos’s pollster. What can I say? If the left can cling bitterly to Rasmussen as a bulwark against terrible numbers from Gallup, I can cling to this.

We are being set up. That is what I say.

The Democrats are giving the Conservatives a reason to go ahead and not pull the level for Mitt. Mitt is acting like the liberal (Deomcrat)* he was in Mass. in the debates. So the Democrats are ginning up an excuse for Conservatives to go ahead and leave the Presidential question unanswered.

We saw collusion in the last debate. Crowley had that quote on the top of her stack. Obama made it clear he was playing tag team two against one. The press is doing every thing they can to cover Obama in making out like no attack is ever terrorism. If you think this will not expend to polls you are simply not paying attention. We already saw legal action to force cooperation.

Of course Mitt never had a chance anyway but the Democrats are too stupid to understand. True Conservatives never voter for liberal Republicans as they are always a disaster once in office.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

There’s a church in California that claims to be able to cure left-handedness.

slickwillie2001 on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Blah blah blah. There’s a bridge. Go jump off it.

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 5:42 PM

The Bot humping the chocolate rabbit til it melts is my vote…hillsoftx on October 19, 2012 at 5:03 PM

THIS!

Tenwheeler on October 19, 2012 at 5:42 PM

As of today, I think RCP has updated their no-toss-up map appropriately to illustrate where the race actually stands right now.

Ohio is getting too much press. Romney’s most realistic shot at winning right now lies in flipping Wisconsin.

Stoic Patriot on October 19, 2012 at 5:03 PM

You may be right. If Romney can win NH, CO, and WI, he gets to exactly 270 EVs without Ohio. Still, Ohio is worth fighting for, since Romney could win the Presidency by winning OH and one of the three states above.

Maybe Romney can win the Presidency on the coattails of Paul Ryan and Scott Walker…both from Wisconsin!

Steve Z on October 19, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Speaking as an Iowan, something’s not quite right here. First, they oversampled Republicans. Second, they don’t show a gender gap, but I think it’s as big here in Iowa as everywhere else. Third, Democrat voter enthusiasm seems as muted here as elsewhere, yet the poll shows MORE enthusiasm for Dems? I doubt it.

Iowa is totally up for grabs right now, and it’ll be very close, I’d say. So, I actually agree with the final result of the poll — that’s it’s essentially a dead heat. I just don’t see how they got there, when you look at the breakout.

Cornfed on October 19, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

You are nuts

gophergirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I keep saying it. Zero will not win NH or Maine. NH flipped back to the red in 2010 and it won’t go back.

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Of course Mitt never had a chance anyway but the Democrats are too stupid to understand. True Conservatives never voter for liberal Republicans as they are always a disaster once in office.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

True Conservatives don’t post BS on conservative sites to try and water down the enthusiasm. True Conservatives take a W when they can, knowing full well the war is the goal, not the battle.

True Conservatives will still go out and vote even if it is a predicted landslide for Romney because they want to be in on the win, and AMERICA LOVES A WINNER.

Go wee-wee yourself.

Tenwheeler on October 19, 2012 at 5:45 PM

IBD/TIPP’s poll is especially crazy. It has Obama winning nearly 1/3 of self-described “conservatives”.

Between that and Rasmussens’ DEM +5 rating, I’d say the true lead is probably closer to Gallup’s.

Norwegian on October 19, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Yeah, the Hartford Courant poll has 18% of Republicans voting for Obama, while 9% of Democrats are voting for Romney. It’s sad and funny at the same time…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Blah blah blah. There’s a bridge. Go jump off it.

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Just trying to help people here remain sane when Mitt loses.

Conservatives will not vote for him. He will in fact lose. Remember Wisconsin Walker won but Mitt was 15 points behind. A conservative would beat Obama. But liberal Mitt will lose.

I have been consistent on that only three short weeks now.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Of course Mitt never had a chance anyway but the Democrats are too stupid to understand. True Conservatives never voter for liberal Republicans as they are always a disaster once in office.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

And yet, it is the ‘merely fiscal’ conservatives here constantly being reproached for alienating asshats like this.

M240H on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

gophergirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I was just thinking the same exact thing. My reaction after reading his post was …. Wha???

BeachBum on October 19, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

You are nuts

gophergirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:43 PM

See: as the polls swing Romney’s way…he says:

He is a certifiable whack job.I have been consistent on that only three short weeks now.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Nut Job.

CW on October 19, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

You’ve been consistently crazy. Have you even bothered to look at the polls the last few weeks? Or are they a conspiracy against “True Conservatives” like you?

Go back on your meds, nutter.

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 5:51 PM

The fraud in WI scares me. Our GAB (Government Accountability Board) which oversees elections was sending out tweets these past few days advertising the fact that a person can register in WI WITHOUT showing any proof of residency. Yes, you read that correctly. Yesterday was the last day a person could register with absolutely NO proof they lived in the state & after doing so their names will appear on the voter rolls.

fatigue on October 19, 2012 at 5:52 PM

I have been consistent on that only three short weeks now.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Consistently wrong. I am very conservative and originally did not support Gov. Romney. Now I do. The idiots who refused to support McCain in 08 have seen the error of their ways and will vote for Romney.

Heck even Obama supporters in 08 will not vote for him this time. The Won is Done.

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Obama’s in deep trouble if that margin holds, which is why you’re hearing a lot about abortion (and binders) lately.

Yup. CNN has their marching orders. They were talking about abortion a few minutes ago.

Wigglesworth on October 19, 2012 at 5:54 PM

And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why.

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Yet alla y’all still somehow think the ol’ Gumbo supports obama.

Yeah. Right.

He phucks with y’all, alla y’all fall over yourselves responding.

Lanceman on October 19, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Just trying to help people here remain sane when Mitt loses.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Thanks so much for sharing that.

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Sounds like he is then going to SE Ohio – but he could have gone straight there. Interesting.

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 5:56 PM

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 5:55 PM

So now we’re doing demerits?

Lanceman on October 19, 2012 at 5:57 PM

The opposite of what gumbyandpokey says is what always happens. Past G&P predictions: Walker is a goner in Wisconsin, Walker would struggle in Waukesha County, Romney’s debate bounce wouldn’t last but a few days, the jobs report would clinch Obama the election, Obama was receiving a Big Bird Bounce, and Obama would get a big bounce from the 2nd debate.

midgeorgian on October 19, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

You’ve got to do better than that. That’s some weak, weak stuff, man. Obama will lose by 7 points. He’ll be lucky to get 47% of the vote. You are absolutely nuts if you think the base isn’t coming out for Mitt. The best O can hope for is a strong showing from libs in important swing states. This is why Obama is trying to gin up support in places like Wisconsin that haven’t gone Republican since the advent of the Macintosh Computer.

Truly, you are completely delusional. Just come back on November 7. And bring pudding.

happytobehere on October 19, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Just trying to help people here remain sane when Mitt loses.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

And join you in your version of sanity?

Bless your little nutball heart, but no.

I prefer reality.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Lol! PPP changed the qualifier for who they would call an independant, in order to skew the poll more to Dems & they still can’t get the result the KKKKosKid wanted! When you ask an “independent” questions to qualify or disqualify, you skew the poll to the right or left. Since this poll was for the Head KKKKosKid, it obviously was skewed to the Dems. How’s that for a smack in the face of a troll?
Update on:How to take on the Obama Enemy media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 19, 2012 at 6:05 PM

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 5:55 PM

So now we’re doing demerits?

Lanceman on October 19, 2012 at 5:57 PM

No, that grading curve was inspired by an old episode of “Dobie Gillis” where Maynard G. Krebs gets a -2 in his history exam.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Oregon! Oregon!

SouthernGent on October 19, 2012 at 6:15 PM

the jobs report would clinch Obama the election

midgeorgian on October 19, 2012 at 5:59 PM

More like the next jobs report is going to sink him, once and for all.

Have you been paying attention to the markets lately?

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Romney LEADS w independents in EVERY single national poll

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/330966/obama-s-independent-problem-josh-jordan

PEW: 74% of evangelicals support Romney, including 39 percent of Latino evangelicals. Only 19% of evangelicals support Obama.

Although Barack Obama got only 26% of white evangelicals in 2008, according to exit polls, he got about 33% of young white evangelicals.

It is also important to note that millions (some claim upwards of 20-30 million – I have no way of verifying that figure) of evangelicals stayed home in 2008. They won’t be this year.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:16 PM

CoCo Puffs

CW on October 19, 2012 at 6:16 PM

The fraud in WI scares me. Our GAB (Government Accountability Board) which oversees elections was sending out tweets these past few days advertising the fact that a person can register in WI WITHOUT showing any proof of residency. Yes, you read that correctly. Yesterday was the last day a person could register with absolutely NO proof they lived in the state & after doing so their names will appear on the voter rolls.

fatigue on October 19, 2012 at 5:52 PM

I hope Mitt has spent some of that war chest retaining the best attorneys money can buy. The Regime isn’t going to let a small matter like getting less votes stop them from ushering in their glorious Marxist Utopia.

Kataklysmic on October 19, 2012 at 6:17 PM

GOP stupidity on display nominating Romney. I am now thinking the Gallup poll was fake to distract and make Romney think he need not perform all that well in the last debate. I would imagine Obama and his press friends will make it far worse than the most recent debacle that went over nothing of importance.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:25 PM

If you want to see stupidity, look in the mirror. Even in WI, where Obama is up 2, there has been a 6 point swing in Romney’s favour since the last debate.

He is outperforming every Republican in history in EV in Iowa and is nearing parity with Obama. PPP (a Dem poll) has R +1 in Iowa, post-debate 2nd debate, 49-48. PPP’s last poll in Iowa was Obama up 7. Eight point swing since post-DNC.

PPP has R +1 in NH (PPP says “Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer)

Ras: R +11 in MO, which McCain only beat Obama by +0.1%.

Reason-Rupe: Obama only has a +15 lead in CA (R won’t win CA, but O at ONLY a +15?)

Florida: R +5

Virginia: R +3

Ohio: O +1

OHIO (look at the dates and then the trend):

PPP (D+4)…..10/12 – 10/13….Obama-51……Romney-46……Obama +5

SurveyUSA (D+7)…..10/12 – 10/15……Obama-45……Romney-42…..Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports (D+5)……10/17 – 10/17…..Obama-49…..Romney-48……Obama +1

RCP has taken FL, VA, and CO out of the toss-up column and moved them to R.

Ras nationally: Tied today, but Romney is about to get a post-debate bounce according to Scott

Gallup: Last 3 days: R +6, R +7, R +6

THE LAST DEBATE WAS NOT A DEBACLE FOR ROMNEY.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Sorry but it is still mostly even and Obama has the advantage in the swing States.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:30 PM

So, you really think that Ohio is going to buck the national trend enough to put Obama over the top?

Say, Romney is only up 3-4, not 6-7. Do you really think that Ohio is going to be that far out of the mainstream, especially if Romney wins Florida and Virginia by more than 2-3?

How does that work considering that both Florida and Virginia have much more diverse populations and, especially in the case of Florida, larger Prog pockets?

In the last week, 3 liberal newspapers, which endorsed Obama in 2008, have endorsed Romney. Do you think that they are, somehow, far out-of-touch with what is going on in their communities? If liberal newspapers are endorsing Romney, I think that it is fairly safe to say that there is much softer Obama support than there was in 2008, which translates to far lower turnout.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:19 PM

midgeorgian on October 19, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Don’t forget the “Biden Bounce” a/k/a the Dead Moonbat Bounce.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Stevey doesn’t care. It’s all a big liberal conspiracy to him.

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 6:22 PM

So, you really think that….

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:19 PM

It doesn’t think. It just reacts to news about conservatives winning with disdain. Trying to argue with it won’t help. Give it a few minutes and it will come back and talk about how it’s the “most pure conservative person evah!” Mind not its “concern”.

happytobehere on October 19, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Here’s something nutty. The latest Fox poll from OH has Obama up 3…while Romney wins indys by 24 percent!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Ohio is critical, but maybe it’s time for Romney to plan for some backup plans to get to 270 without Ohio. Because it looks like Axelrod is going to throw out everything but the kitchen sink to win Ohio, I think he’ll put a guy on every street corner if he could.

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 6:29 PM

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Like sneaking in and stealing PA?

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Because it looks like Axelrod is going to throw out everything but the kitchen sink to win Ohio, I think he’ll put a guy on every street corner if he could.

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Yeah, an armed member of the New Black Panthers.

Happy Nomad on October 19, 2012 at 6:33 PM

The challenge will be to hold Mitt’s feet to the fire. When the economy starts to surge immediately after Mitt’s win, then we must make sure that he implements conservative fiscal and regulatory policies. Bush’s feet weren’t held to the fire, Mitt’s will be.

blink on October 19, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Starting with new GOP leadership in the House and Senate.

Happy Nomad on October 19, 2012 at 6:34 PM

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM
And here I thought it was just Texans you guys hated so much! :)

HoustonRight on October 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM

They did. They just had no idea how good they had it. Most Texans were perfectly happy to go to Colorado and float, ride horses, fish, ski, spend a buttload of money that the locals used to pay for lots of things including taxes, but the main goal was to preserve it the way it was so when they went back it was the same.

Then the Pierre Cardin/Oprah crowd found the place and instead of being satisfied with screwed up places like Aspen, they began buying huge chunks of land, carving off mountaintops to build airports for their G-2′s and 737′s, and building ginormous homes where they spent a few weeks a year. Sounds okay sort of at the outset, more money for the economy, right? One problem. It increased the need for infrastructure, draining the resources of the local and state, and drove up the appraisals and taxes of EVERYONE living there.

Now, the Californicators can no longer survive financially in the cesspool of their making, so they are fleeing to New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado, and destroying what was left of those states trying to get a handle on this mess. Buying huge tracts of land, building gigantic houses and mansions, fencing off large portions of property bordering the National Forests and rivers, and driving up the cost of living, taxes, and even insurance, in an attempt to have things there the way they were where they came from. Sound familiar?

My father in law, now deceased, discovered a cabin for rent/outfitter in western Colorado in the 50′s when he was exploring for oil in the region. The and their children and grandchildren vacationed there nearly every year through the early 90′s, hiking, fishing, and horsebacking in the back country. The original owners had passed years ago, a husband and wife that had worked there for decades ran the place, she passed, then he passed, and the property fell to the nephew. They sold the property a couple of years ago because they could not pay the property taxes or liability insurance because it had risen to such insane heights.

Generations of families had not only made their living there, but been there for vacation, living the great outdoors experience Colorado had to offer. The values that this inspired in those generations still remain, but the lessons available to them no longer abound.

Now this place is not next to Steamboat Springs, is hours from Aspen, or Denver, or any other major ski or vacation hotspot. It is very nearly in the middle of nowhere.

I can’t even fathom what folks in Vail or Steamboat pay in taxes and living expenses today compared to 10 years ago.

I suspect the folks in Colorado would be glad to have the Texans back for a week or two a year if they could have their state back the way it was.

Sorry for the rant. (Stepping off milkcrate.)

Ps: The last owner told us he sold the place to a banker with
Goldman-Sachs, who proceeded to bulldoze not only the seventy year old log cabins, but the main house, corral for the horses, etc. Now it stands bare, with a few trees, and I believe this guy is now bankrupt.

Tenwheeler on October 19, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Ohio is critical, but maybe it’s time for Romney to plan for some backup plans to get to 270 without Ohio. Because it looks like Axelrod is going to throw out everything but the kitchen sink to win Ohio, I think he’ll put a guy on every street corner if he could.

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Romney got a 7 point swing in his direction on economic issues and cut Obama’s lead in WI down to 2. Among those who have already voted in WI, it’s Romney 54%, Obama 43%. Obama won WI by 14 in 2008.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Starting with new GOP leadership in the House and Senate.

Happy Nomad on October 19, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Absolutely! But first things first.

happytobehere on October 19, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Ras Swing State Tracking:

R: 49

O: 47

“In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.”

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:43 PM

It is also important to note that millions (some claim upwards of 20-30 million – I have no way of verifying that figure) of evangelicals stayed home in 2008. They won’t be this year.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I agree, millions that stayed home, were tricked into believing
the hopey changey stuff, voted for Obama to prove they were
not racist, or “its time to give the black man a chance”, will
call through broken glass this time to vote for Romney.

Amjean on October 19, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Here’s something nutty. The latest Fox poll from OH has Obama up 3…while Romney wins indys by 24 percent!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 6:27 PM

The DRI percentages in that poll is 42/34/20. With a more reasonable split (say D+4), Romney leads by 1 or 2 points.

HTL on October 19, 2012 at 6:44 PM

PPP polls past.

PPP is a democratic hack pollster skews polls for democrats.

ppp polls now.

PPP is trying to suck us in and trick us.

LOL

gerrym51 on October 19, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Romney can say bye bye to Ohio!

I told you guys that OH was the state he could not win, and I was RIGHT!

Looking forward to collecting my 100.00!

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

i like your new website. you should be proud

gerrym51 on October 19, 2012 at 6:56 PM

What are you all doing milling about with your pockets full of hands!?

I don’t care what the poll numbers say! Have you volunteered to help the Romney Campaign on election day!?

If you haven’t then get off your doff and get over there NOW!

Chaz706 on October 19, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Here’s something nutty. The latest Fox poll from OH has Obama up 3…while Romney wins indys by 24 percent!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 6:27 PM

MOE is +/- 3 . The party breakdown is
D 42 R 34 I 20, a D +8

bayview on October 19, 2012 at 6:57 PM

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Just got an e-mail from someone who got called for one of our polls saying that Obama and Romney are *both* Communists. That’s a new one

Steveangell’s back and filled with moxie!

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 6:59 PM

A does of reality for all of you…

–Romney is not going to win Ohio. It’s been locked for a while and Romney can not break through there because Obama has around a 55% favorability rating compared to 48% for Romney.

–Romney is not going to win Nevada. The unions control the elections there now.

–Romney is not going to win Wisconsin. Obama is at 50% in almost all the polls now and that’s golden for an incumbent.

Boy, I’m looking forward to getting my 100.00!

BTW, I told you so.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Romney can say bye bye to Ohio!

I told you guys that OH was the state he could not win, and I was RIGHT!

Looking forward to collecting my 100.00!

gumbypoked on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

You must be putting us on, no one can be that stupid.

bayview on October 19, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Romney can say bye bye to Ohio!

I told you guys that OH was the state he could not win, and I was RIGHT!

Looking forward to collecting my 100.00!

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

How can you be right if the election’s not for 2 1/2 weeks?

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:01 PM

As a native of NH, and one who travels throughout the central to northern areas, I have found an incredible lack of Obama signs compared to 2008. Our roadways are populated with political signage, and have been for months, yet even in the clusters of signs for the Dems, there is one sign missing, “Obama/Biden” – it’s very telling. Recently on a trip to Plymouth (north), a college town, I was certain as soon I entered the area there would be Obama signs – not the case. Romney signs are everywhere. You’ll notice when Obama visits NH he stays in the southern tier, which has a more liberal population.

NotPC on October 19, 2012 at 7:04 PM

“If the left can cling bitterly to Rasmussen as a bulwark against terrible numbers from Gallup, I can cling to this.”

I assume the left clung to “good news” from Rasmussen in light of “bad news” from Gallup. Was “I can cling to this” meant to imply that this “good news” is being clung to due to some “bad news?” Is there some bad news I’ve missed or is that not what was meant? Or did I read it wrong?

bertielou on October 19, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Steveangell, just when I think that some of the people I work with are the biggest idiots in the world, you remind me that it can always be worse. In your case–much worse.

Rusty Allen on October 19, 2012 at 7:07 PM

The latest Fox poll from OH has Obama up 3…while Romney wins indys by 24 percent!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 6:27 PM

“Fox News Poll Results: Support for Obama Dips in Ohio”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/10/19/fox-news-poll-results-support-for-obama-dips-in-ohio/

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Of course Mitt never had a chance anyway but the Democrats are too stupid to understand. True Conservatives never voter for liberal Republicans as they are always a disaster once in office.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Hve you just crawled out of your hole to stand in for gumpey or something? …Go back!

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Yes, but that poll also shows that Obama leads by 20 points in early voting there. Still a lot of work to be done if Romney is to win Ohio.

Rusty Allen on October 19, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Recently on a trip to Plymouth (north), a college town, I was certain as soon I entered the area there would be Obama signs – not the case. Romney signs are everywhere. You’ll notice when Obama visits NH he stays in the southern tier, which has a more liberal population.

NotPC on October 19, 2012 at 7:04 PM

One of the Power Line dudes (John Hinderaker?) had a post there earlier this week about how he was recently at his alma mater, Dartmouth. He said the only sign he saw on campus was one for Romney.

I’m in the Lakes Region (not the side of the Big Lake Romney’s from) and have also noticed a lack of O’bamna signs in relation to 2008.

But for all we know, that could be due to a lack of money to print the signs.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Romney can say bye bye to Ohio!

I told you guys that OH was the state he could not win, and I was RIGHT!

Looking forward to collecting my 100.00!

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

You are never right, this is why you are so mocked here :) every single prediction you made was an epic fail :)

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Watch the polls this week.

hawkdriver on October 17, 2012 at 1:18 AM

hawkdriver on October 19, 2012 at 7:13 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I strongly recommend that you stop posting here, you are doing yourself a disservice.

http://healthland.time.com/2012/10/18/how-teen-rejection-can-lead-to-chronic-disease-later-in-life/

BeachBum on October 19, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Romney needs a decisive win on Monday and an aggressive ground game for the next 2 weeks and he could get this thing done.

Rusty Allen on October 19, 2012 at 7:16 PM

BTW, I told you so.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Great poll for Romney in many ways:

1) 46 for an incumbent in Ohio is panic time 18 days out
2) Romney’s up 24 (that’s TWENTY FREAKING FOUR) with independents. No way he loses with that. Undecideds will go to Romney 8 to 1 with that
3) Romney’s up with women by 8 – great news for Romney but something’s clearly wrong there
4) D+8 like 2008. Laughable. Gallup has OH at D+4 as of Sept 2012. Romney win right there alone
5) Obama performed 2.5 points worse in OH against McCain than he did nationally and McCain’s campaign was out of money

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Boy, I’m looking forward to getting my 100.00!

BTW, I told you so.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:00 PM

You told us that walker was a goner too bwahahahaa :)

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 7:16 PM

“Romney can say bye bye to Ohio!

I told you guys that OH was the state he could not win, and I was RIGHT!

Looking forward to collecting my 100.00!

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

You are never right, this is why you are so mocked here :) every single prediction you made was an epic fail :)

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 7:13 PM”

Ohio has shown zero signs of slipping away from Obama. That state is the entire election, since Nevada and Wisconsin are locked for the President. I could see Romney winning NH or IA or CO, but that’s not enough.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:19 PM

R has cut O’s lead in OH to 3 from 7

MOE is +/- 3

R has a +10 advantage with “extremely interested” (a/k/a definite voters)

R has +12 advantage with voters that say it is “extremely important” that their candidate win

R’s approval rating positive

Independents: O down 10 points from September
Women: O down 8 points
Voters under age 35: O down 6 points

Who should get more credit for cutting Ohio’s unemployment rate”

Gov. Kasich: 45

Obama: 35

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 7:20 PM

But for all we know, that could be due to a lack of money to print the signs.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Zero sticks to Manchester, Concord and Nashua. Even near Exeter there are waves of Romney signs and even in the border towns. There are very few Obama or Hassan signs.

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 7:22 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Of course you don’t. After all, you’re obama’s toady here.

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 7:22 PM

“Great poll for Romney in many ways:

1) 46 for an incumbent in Ohio is panic time 18 days out
2) Romney’s up 24 (that’s TWENTY FREAKING FOUR) with independents. No way he loses with that. Undecideds will go to Romney 8 to 1 with that
3) Romney’s up with women by 8 – great news for Romney but something’s clearly wrong there
4) D+8 like 2008. Laughable. Gallup has OH at D+4 as of Sept 2012. Romney win right there alone
5) Obama performed 2.5 points worse in OH against McCain than he did nationally and McCain’s campaign was out of money

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:16 PM”

IMO, it’s the auto bailout that sewed up Ohio for Obama. That would explain his very high favorability (55%) rating there compared to other states, and why Romney cannot make up ground, even with increased ad buys.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:23 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:19 PM

How’s Governor Barrett working out?

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 6:54 PM

The latest FOX poll is D+8 and has Romney winning independents by 24 points. I think you’re looking for the wrong kind of movement. Think bowel.

NotCoach on October 19, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Wisconsin are locked for the President.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Um no. Scott Walker x2 crushed the dems. You lose. Even better, Zero loses. Those polls count, yours don’t. Dems have been crushed every election since Zero got elected. Every vote was a referendum on him as well as the local race.

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 7:25 PM

The latest Fox poll from OH has Obama up 3…while Romney wins indys by 24 percent!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Cough cough D+8 sample , non starter

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Ohio has shown zero signs of slipping away from Obama. That state is the entire election, since Nevada and Wisconsin are locked for the President. I could see Romney winning NH or IA or CO, but that’s not enough.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:19 PM

A baldface lie.

Fox poll:

9/18 49/42
10/18 46/43

4 point improvement in 4 weeks. We both know most of it was from past 2 weeks and the D+8 is laughable. 2010 was D+1 in Ohio. So you do the math.

This is a great poll for Romney.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Ohio has shown zero signs of slipping away from Obama. That state is the entire election, since Nevada and Wisconsin are locked for the President. I could see Romney winning NH or IA or CO, but that’s not enough.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Look, Hotair, could you at least have your fake-troll-hit-generator not babble nonsense?

M240H on October 19, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Just trying to help people here remain sane when Mitt loses.

Steveangell on October 19, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Thank you. I appreciate that. I think a lot of us here could really use your advice in this regard. I know that whenever I’m wondering how to keep my mind in such a crazy, crazy world, I just stop and ask myself, “how does Steveangell keep his sanity?”

RINO in Name Only on October 19, 2012 at 7:27 PM

IMO, it’s the auto bailout that sewed up Ohio for Obama. That would explain his very high favorability (55%) rating there compared to other states, and why Romney cannot make up ground, even with increased ad buys.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Then why did he drop from 49 to 46?

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 7:25 PM

I know. That’s why I’m mocking the poll.

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 7:25 PM

He knows. So does Obama. The 2010 model shows what’s about to happen. Everyone sees it now, even Beckel. Matthews must be foaming at the mouth…

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 7:28 PM

“A baldface lie.

Fox poll:

9/18 49/42
10/18 46/43

4 point improvement in 4 weeks. We both know most of it was from past 2 weeks and the D+8 is laughable. 2010 was D+1 in Ohio. So you do the math.

This is a great poll for Romney.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:26 PM”

Maybe, but Romney’s support barely moved. It was just Obama voters moving to undecided.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:29 PM

IMO…

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:23 PM

I found a glaring error in your analysis.

NotCoach on October 19, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Maybe, but Romney’s support barely moved. It was just Obama voters moving to undecided.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Undecided in this case = “do I stay home?” or “do I vote for Romney?”

Like the lady in the focus group. You saw that right?

dogsoldier on October 19, 2012 at 7:30 PM

IMO, it’s the auto bailout that sewed up Ohio for Obama. That would explain his very high favorability (55%)53% rating there compared to other states, and why Romney cannot make up ground, even with increased ad buys.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:23 PM

He lost 2 points in favourability in the last month, as Romney reversed a 5 point net negative to 48/46. Also, if you think that people are going to vote on favourability alone, you really are a lost cause.

Favourability doesn’t get you a job. It doesn’t make a mortgage payment. It doesn’t put food on the table although Obama will be happy to put you on the dole.

Unlike the coasts, OH still has a whole lot of people that would rather earn a living than have someone else earn it for them and live on the dole.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 7:31 PM

========================================================

The fact that Koz is publishing this poll,

can it be a sign that some of the fringe left are so upset with Obama that they finally will show the truth, no longer protect him and are ready to throw The One under the bus?

As Rush mentioned, the last thing they want is to have blame go to Liberalism so the obvious scapegoat is Obama who they now also see is inept , bumbler , lazy, selfish and egomaniac

The prospect of either 4 more years carry the water for this guy and know they are misleading or be able to keep the high road and do their old stuff, attack Romney must be a good explanation

huntingmoose on October 19, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Maybe, but Romney’s support barely moved. It was just Obama voters moving to undecided.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:29 PM

And with independents at R+24 take a wild guess where they’re going to land.

Hell, even with the conservative 2/3 to the challenger rule, Romney wins.

Then you have D+8.

So add it all together and your boy is toast in Ohio.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Maybe, but Romney’s support barely moved. It was just Obama voters moving to undecided.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 7:29 PM

And, that’s supposed to be good for Obama? That’s supposed to be a sign that Obama has “locked in Ohio”?

Excuse me while I…

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Oh, stop it! Yer killin me!

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 7:35 PM

One more time:

2008 was D+8
2010 was D+1

This poll is D+8

Obama’s up by 3

Someone do the math.

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 7:36 PM

gumby may be trolling, but there’s some truth to what he’s saying. It all basically comes down to Ohio and Obama/Axelrod probably has planned this all along ever since he was inaugurated…why do you think he pushed so hard for the auto bailout and cash for clunkers and all that BS?

Anyways, having a troll around isn’t all bad. It keeps us grounded in reality. We need to realize there’s still a long way to go before Romney has this thing wrapped up.

tkyang99 on October 19, 2012 at 7:38 PM

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