Poll: Romney now leads by one in New Hampshire — and Iowa

posted at 4:41 pm on October 19, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yes, yes, I know, this comes from Kos’s pollster. What can I say? If the left can cling bitterly to Rasmussen as a bulwark against terrible numbers from Gallup, I can cling to this.

RCP’s average already had New Hampshire within a point so the new PPP number there isn’t news. The Iowa number is. This is the first poll in a month showing Romney ahead in the state, notwithstanding his blockbuster debate two weeks ago. NBC’s poll last night, in fact, had O up by eight points in Iowa, a ridiculous figure given that Obama’s worried enough to have campaigned there just two days ago but consistent with the CW that it’s his state to lose.

Is it?

PPP’s newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September.

Mitt Romney’s seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He’s seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama’s approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he’s dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney has a big advantage on the economy in both of these states that seems to be driving his lead. In New Hampshire voters prefer Romney 52/45 on that front and in Iowa it’s 49/45.

The surge in Romney’s favorables is consistent with basically every other poll taken since the demolition in Denver. Interestingly, Iowans think O won the second debate, 45/36, but that hasn’t helped him protect his lead, possibly because the insta-polls taken afterward showed Romney winning on the more important question of the economy. Another interesting bit: No gender gap, despite months of “war on women” yammering and three tedious days of “binders” nonsense.

Obama’s in deep trouble if that margin holds, which is why you’re hearing a lot about abortion (and binders) lately. As for the sample, PPP has it 38R/34D/27I whereas the 2008 exit poll was 34D/33R/33I; everyone’s expecting a redder electorate this year, especially since the GOP’s worked hard on building a registration advantage in Iowa, so the partisan split here doesn’t seem wildly implausible. On the other hand, PPP has O up four points among independents, which cuts sharply against the trend nationally. This is worth watching too:

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge? If that’s true, it’s a real testament to Obama’s organizational effort in Iowa. Exit quotation: “Now it’s a war on women. Tomorrow it’s going to be a war on left-handed Irishmen or something like that.”


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Perhaps Obama should lead by example with lady parts voters and abort his campaign.

NotCoach on October 19, 2012 at 4:44 PM

GumbyPokey MAD!!!!!!!

portlandon on October 19, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Make ready the hump-bot, AP

pseudonominus on October 19, 2012 at 4:45 PM

gumby’s not going to like this…or believe it.

newtopia on October 19, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Any state where Obama is polling below 50%, he will lose.

Norwegian on October 19, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge?

I simply cannot believe this. They just can’t bear to admit that the thrill is gone.

INC on October 19, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Exit quotation: “Now it’s a war on women. Tomorrow it’s going to be a war on left-handed Irishmen or something like that.”

Uh oh, there goes the left-handed Irish-American vote. BTW, I wish I was kidding, but you know the left is so devoid of substance at this point that they’ll try to make something out of that remark.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 4:47 PM

The electorate are finally beginning to tell us the truth. And Obama up with indies? Cmon.

Well Gumbo – at the rate its going, Ohio may not be necessary after all – although I want it – and Mitt will get it too.

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Breaking through in Iowa is big — it’s really a key state for O, and losing it puts O’s back to the wall.

Robert_Paulson on October 19, 2012 at 4:47 PM

This reminds me of the tsunami videos…

… it starts with just a little bit of water, trickling down the street.

Seven Percent Solution on October 19, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Just wait till Mitt slams bho Monday on foreign policy! This should put the nail in the coffin all over the US for bho!
L

letget on October 19, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Make ready the hump-bot, AP

pseudonominus on October 19, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Boom, chicka bow bow.

HumpBot reporting for duty.

HumpBot Salvation on October 19, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge?

Maybe in some deep blue states, but not Iowa or New Hampshire. I’m dying to cast my ballot and I live in Texas for God’s sake which is already penciled into the GOP column.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 4:49 PM

When you’ve lost the Kos poll… Where’s the Gumpoking a$$hat?

Slainte on October 19, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Ryan going to Pennsylvania to campaign. The map is growing.

hanzblinx on October 19, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Wow, a ton of folks are catching Romneisa in the midwest!

newtopia on October 19, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge?

I simply cannot believe this. They just can’t bear to admit that the thrill is gone.

INC on October 19, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I don’t think that has been true in any poll by any pollster in the last 2 months. If there has been a poll showing higher enthusiasm among dems, I have not seen it reported anywhere.

Monkeytoe on October 19, 2012 at 4:50 PM

gumby’s not going to like this…or believe it.

newtopia on October 19, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Obama is tied in Rasmussen without leaners in Ohio… Romney can’t win.

jarodea on October 19, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Kunta Kinte
Obama reclaims lead on realclearpolitics….

Well, then, it’s all over for Romney, isn’t it?

UltimateBob on October 19, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Didn’t the NBC/Marxist poll from yesterday, and quoted extensively by Al Sharpton, say Barry is up by 8? We need gumbypoked to grace us with his keen insight.

bayview on October 19, 2012 at 4:51 PM

GumbyPokey HATE poll…..

GumbyPokey MAD at poll……..

GumbeyPokey …DESTROY!!

portlandon on October 19, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Didn’t the NBC/Marxist poll from yesterday, and quoted extensively by Al Sharpton, say Barry is up by 8? We need gumbypoked to grace us with his keen insight.

bayview on October 19, 2012 at 4:51 PM

What was the sample used though? We’re talking NBC here.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge? If that’s true, it’s a real testament to Obama’s organizational effort in Iowa.

That’s depressing. Though, supposedly the GOP ground game there is very good, and the early vote trend has been trending more 2004 (when Bush won) then 2008. And I believe they also lead in registration.

changer1701 on October 19, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Like people slowly coming out of their houses at the end of the movie when the alien invasion has been defeated, perhaps people are finally realizing that it’s okay and NOT racist to think Obama has done a bad job and it’s time to “let him go”.

kim roy on October 19, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Romney needs one of the following states:

Nev, Penn, Mich, Wisc or Ohio – or flip something we don’t expect.

Romney is taking Iowa, NH, and CO.

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Idiotic Denver Post endorsed the Big Zero today. That’s why I don’t get the paper anymore. Way too liberal for me these days. But Romney’s got Colorado.

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I am waxing up the board..
Paddling out..
Sweet waves a comin’..low chop
~~~~~~

bazil9 on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Kunta Kinte
Obama reclaims lead on realclearpolitics….

Well, then, it’s all over for Romney, isn’t it?

UltimateBob on October 19, 2012 at 4:51 PM

KK’s referenced big lead at RCP is 0.1%.

Slainte on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Big Bird and Big Turd

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Perhaps Obama should lead by example with lady parts voters and abort his campaign.

NotCoach on October 19, 2012 at 4:44 PM

LMMFBO!! I love it!! Cha Ching…No More Calls Please, we have a Winner!

Tbone McGraw on October 19, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Obama is tied in Rasmussen without leaners in Ohio… Romney can’t win.

He most certainly can. 18 days remaining and all the momentum. I don’t think Obama’s support is rock solid by any means. I think Mitt’s chances of winning the state are better than 70% right now.

newtopia on October 19, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Hurry Gumby. Get here!

I wish Romney would make a push for Illinois. Oh that would be the sweetest of all.

happytobehere on October 19, 2012 at 4:55 PM

As pertinent today as it was in 2010

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, even after Romney’s post-Denver surge?

Hell yes, they wanna vote for Romney too. Even they have had enough of Zero.

Herb on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Didn’t the NBC/Marxist poll from yesterday, and quoted extensively by Al Sharpton, say Barry is up by 8? We need gumbypoked to grace us with his keen insight.

bayview on October 19, 2012 at 4:51 PM

You mean the poll where they counted people who had merely requested an absentee ballot as having voted early?

Flora Duh on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

The 3rd debate should be the final blow.

darwin on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Thank God! I’m getting tired of apologizing for my state…

lovingmyUSA on October 19, 2012 at 4:57 PM

We’ve gone from Big Bird to binders to Romnesia in the space of a few days. This seems like a campaign that’s flailing, desperately trying to find that one magic theme that will eviscerate Romney. But this stuff has to be carefully developed and sustained. You can’t keep going from Romney the liar to Romney the flip-flopper and back again.

bobs1196 on October 19, 2012 at 4:57 PM

the choomer is starting to see his reelection chances slip, slidin’ away…slowly, inexorably we’re heading for a Mitt landslide

RedInMD on October 19, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Hate to say this, but I will: if Romney wins, Humpbot ain’t gonna be good enough. I think the melting rabbit would be better, just so it’s there to be tweeted to liberals. Or, the Cartman clip with him doing the ‘sweet sweet’ tears rant after he feeds Scott Tennorman chili made from Scott’s dead parents. No, Humpbot won’t cut it this time…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

We’ve gone from Big Bird to binders to Romnesia in the space of a few days. This seems like a campaign that’s flailing, desperately trying to find that one magic theme that will eviscerate Romney. But this stuff has to be carefully developed and sustained. You can’t keep going from Romney the liar to Romney the flip-flopper and back again.

bobs1196 on October 19, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I can’t keep up with this stuff. I’m just gonna stand over here and sip my Slurpee while laughing at those folks trying to push their car out of the ditch.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

As pertinent today as it was in 2010

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

YEP!!

bazil9 on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

The electorate are finally beginning to tell us the truth. And Obama up with indies? Cmon.

Well Gumbo – at the rate its going, Ohio may not be necessary after all – although I want it – and Mitt will get it too.

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 4:47 PM

..Dick Morris (I know, I know) believes it’s “not optimum” for Obama at this moment. He just said on Hannity that the so-called second-tier of blue states (WI, MI, IA, PA?) were not hit with the Dresden carpet bombing of ads by Obama and may likely turn to Romney because they have not been stewing in the negativity since May.

He postulates that they — particularly WI, PA, and MI — may come in early for Romney obviating the need to OIHO, which will eventually come in for Romney anyway.

As I said I know,I know.

The War Planner on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

KK’s referenced big lead at RCP is 0.1%.

Slainte on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

It is also worth noting that it is based on three polls with D+7, D+8 and D+9 partisan weighting. Which is crazy.

HTL on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Idiotic Denver Post endorsed the Big Zero today. That’s why I don’t get the paper anymore. Way too liberal for me these days. But Romney’s got Colorado.

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

After 22 yrs, left that state a year ago…other than David Harsanyi, the Denver comPOST is the NYT of the Rockies…

hillsoftx on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

As pertinent today as it was in 2010

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Thanks for that! So true. Will have a margarita in your name tonight.

HoustonRight on October 19, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Idiotic Denver Post endorsed the Big Zero today. That’s why I don’t get the paper anymore. Way too liberal for me these days. But Romney’s got Colorado.

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Hopefully you’re right. Anyone voting for 4 more years of this is insane…they’re expecting that doing the same thing will yield a different result. Not gonna happen.

changer1701 on October 19, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Yes, yes, I know, this comes from Kos’s pollster. What can I say? If the left can cling bitterly to Rasmussen as a bulwark against terrible numbers from Gallup, I can cling to this.

Sounds like Eeyore died.

As of today, I think RCP has updated their no-toss-up map appropriately to illustrate where the race actually stands right now.

Ohio is getting too much press. Romney’s most realistic shot at winning right now lies in flipping Wisconsin.

Stoic Patriot on October 19, 2012 at 5:03 PM

No, Humpbot won’t cut it this time…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

..ABSOLUTELY GOSH DARNED RIGHT! WE ENDURED THIS SIEGE! WE FOUGHT THIS BATTLE!

WE. ARE. OWED!

The War Planner on October 19, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Hate to say this, but I will: if Romney wins, Humpbot ain’t gonna be good enough. I think the melting rabbit would be better, just so it’s there to be tweeted to liberals. Or, the Cartman clip with him doing the ‘sweet sweet’ tears rant after he feeds Scott Tennorman chili made from Scott’s dead parents. No, Humpbot won’t cut it this time…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

The Bot humping the chocolate rabbit til it melts is my vote…yes, racist metaphor,or something….

hillsoftx on October 19, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Exit quotation: “Now it’s a war on women. Tomorrow it’s going to be a war on left-handed Irishmen or something like that.”

You know who is a left-handed Irishman – Obama

RickB on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

After 22 yrs, left that state a year ago…other than David Harsanyi, the Denver comPOST is the NYT of the Rockies…

hillsoftx on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Amen to that. Too many Californians coming in and screwing up our state, as if what they did to their own state wasn’t bad enough. But I think we’re going red this year. And Ken Salazar had better not set foot here again.

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Gloria Borger got her talking points about it being all about abortion being the Number 1 womens issue ( whut?)-this is what they are hanging their chances on.
Also interesting that CNN all excited about a huge gender gap to save Obama.
B.S and wishcasting.

jjshaka on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

The only people out there that think Obumbler is going to win this thing are the douche bags and liberals…wait, they’re the same people..the Douche Bags, it’s more to the point!

Tbone McGraw on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Oh yes..

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Romney gets these two, CO, and NC and he needs one more state. He can win OH or WI with a little effor. Add buys in WI will pay off.

akaniku on October 19, 2012 at 5:05 PM

if Romney wins, Humpbot ain’t gonna be good enough.

No, Humpbot won’t cut it this time…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

werd

pseudonominus on October 19, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Idiotic Denver Post endorsed the Big Zero today. That’s why I don’t get the paper anymore. Way too liberal for me these days. But Romney’s got Colorado.

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

If you need a good laugh, go read the Denver Post’s endorsement of Obama. I swear it had to be written by Axelrod or Cutter. Here are two paragraphs that show what kind of MSDNC-type Bizarro world they’re living:

The president was willing to concede on the issue of entitlements in a deal reached with House Speaker John Boehner in 2011. But Boehner couldn’t sell their agreement to Tea Party conservatives in the House. We expect Obama will stand up to liberals in his party to compromise on the sacred cow of entitlement reform as part of a larger budget deal shortly after Election Day.

Romney notes correctly that North America is poised to become an energy exporter. But the drill-at-all-costs mantra he is pushing runs counter to the predominant view in Colorado, which is one that balances energy and environment — particularly when it comes to public land. And, unlike the Republican nominee, we believe our nation’s energy portfolio must include government investment in renewable sources such as wind and solar — both of which can become sources of more power and more jobs in the future.

There’s no reasoning with people who are that delusional.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Thanks for that! So true. Will have a margarita in your name tonight.

HoustonRight on October 19, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I’m gonna have a schadenfreude beer myself. ;)

bazil9 on October 19, 2012 at 5:07 PM

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

And here I thought it was just Texans you guys hated so much! :)

HoustonRight on October 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM

If the left can cling bitterly to Rasmussen as a bulwark against terrible numbers from Gallup, I can cling to this.

As gratifying as the Gallup poll is, I stick with Rasmussen. Scott has proven the accuracy of his methodology in the past 2 presidential elections. Admittedly, I can be a bit of a political hack at times, but I’m unwilling at this point to put down Rasmussen’s results just because they don’t align with my heartfelt hopes for this election. Overconfidence based on one pollster could prove to be detrimental to our cause (not to mention a major buzzkill).

Glenn Jericho on October 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM

God, when the time comes…..and companies like the NYT and WAPO and LATimes all go belly up….please don’t have the government rescue them.

Amen.

PappyD61 on October 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM

The Bot humping the chocolate rabbit til it melts is my vote…yes, racist metaphor,or something….

hillsoftx on October 19, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Yeah, but the chocolate rabbit appears to have been supplanted. In that case, what is required is The Bot humping Russell Brand until he stops singing.

Actually anything where Russell Brand shuts up is a good enough start…

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Tomorrow it’s going to be a war on left-handed Irishmen or something like that.

That happens to be me…us lefty’s rule the ad court…

right2bright on October 19, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Actually anything where Russell Brand shuts up is a good enough start…

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 5:09 PM

+1

hillsoftx on October 19, 2012 at 5:12 PM

There’s no way Obama is winning Iowa. Dave Wiggins, one of the seven “justices” who imposed SSM on Iowa, is up for retention this year. The three who were up for retention in 2010 all lost by slightly more than 8% (54 – 46).

It would take a particularly stupid voter to vote to get rid of Wiggins, and then vote for a President who will appoint more Wiggins’ to the US Supreme Court.

Not going to happen.

Greg Q on October 19, 2012 at 5:12 PM

On the other hand, PPP has O up four points among independents, which cuts sharply against the trend nationally.

I grew up in Iowa, and although most years I only go back to visit family once, I was actually there three separate times over the spring/summer this year. My impression was that the economy was doing reasonably well there compared to a lot of other places, all things considered. Not going gangbusters, but at least reasonably ok. If my observations have merit, it might make sense that he’s doing better with independents there.

djm1992 on October 19, 2012 at 5:12 PM

You know who is a left-handed Irishman – Obama

RickB on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

How dare you…

right2bright on October 19, 2012 at 5:12 PM

It is also worth noting that it is based on three polls with D+7, D+8 and D+9 partisan weighting. Which is crazy.

HTL on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Yep, I checked out the Hartford Courant/UCONN poll. D+8, D/R/I breakdown is 47/39/15, and it has Obama up by 9 in the…south. Have fun with this one…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 5:13 PM

IMO the turnout gap is going to be huge! The uninformed will stay home assuming Obama will win without their vote. Some regluar dems will stay home as a protest. The only ones determined to vote at all costs are those of us that want this mistake called The Won corrected in the worst way.

HoustonRight on October 19, 2012 at 5:15 PM

To get an idea of how this thing might be playing out…check the archives right here at HA. At this time (I know today’s October 19th but I’m going with October 20th HA posts) here is where we stood with McCain in 2008:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/20/polls-mccain-now-within-five-in-cnn-hotline/

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/20/nytcbs-re-poll-obama-54-mccain-41/

Look up McCain’s riff at the Al Smith dinner in 2008. During his remarks he almost concedes the race to Obama, and the election hasn’t even taken place.

I want to hope against hope that Romney can pull this off.

theotherone on October 19, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
Among likely voters:
Romney 51
Obama 45

No presidential candidate has ever won an election under 50%…and every candidate who has over 50% in October has won…every single candidate over 50% in October has won.

right2bright on October 19, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Yep, I checked out the Hartford Courant/UCONN poll. D+8, D/R/I breakdown is 47/39/15, and it has Obama up by 9 in the…south. Have fun with this one…

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 5:13 PM

I still don’t understand what that poll is even doing in the RCP average. It has never been part of the mix before and doesn’t have any track record here. It did, however, manage to tilt the average blue for one day. Mission accomplished, I guess.

HTL on October 19, 2012 at 5:19 PM

You know…

… After Team Romney’s appearence last night, I expect to see more polls shifting his way.

Watch it again for a good laugh(s)…

:)

Seven Percent Solution on October 19, 2012 at 5:19 PM

“..Dick Morris (I know, I know) believes it’s “not optimum” for Obama at this moment. He just said on Hannity that the so-called second-tier of blue states (WI, MI, IA, PA?) were not hit with the Dresden carpet bombing of ads by Obama and may likely turn to Romney because they have not been stewing in the negativity since May.”

WI has been getting anti-Romney ads for months. It’s only recently that any Romney ads have begun to air.

Obama is at 50% in the WI polls. Iowa or Colorado is a better bet. You still need Ohio. Romney will not be able to win WI or NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

The second debate was a bummer. The Libya gotcha created a negative for Obama

Next to four dollar gas, Americans don’t want to see Americans skewered, roasted and displayed like trophies. They even more want to be sure it doesn’t happen here

Obama with the help of Candy ended up looking more like he just won five hundred bucks for ‘embassy burnings’ on Jeopardy

The huge after buzz helped set the image. Does anyone think this guy is going to protect their kids? Their pensions?

The MSM took a hit too

Reminds me of the quote “I knew JFK and this guy is no JFK”

In the case of the msm, Americans know an atrocity when they see one, what’s wrong with the MSM?

entagor on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

As gratifying as the Gallup poll is, I stick with Rasmussen. Scott has proven the accuracy of his methodology in the past 2 presidential elections. Admittedly, I can be a bit of a political hack at times, but I’m unwilling at this point to put down Rasmussen’s results just because they don’t align with my heartfelt hopes for this election. Overconfidence based on one pollster could prove to be detrimental to our cause (not to mention a major buzzkill).

Glenn Jericho on October 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Gumby, that is what rational analysis looks like it.

ShadowsPawn on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Gumby, that is what rational analysis looks like it.

ShadowsPawn on October 19, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Thanks for that! So true. Will have a margarita in your name tonight.

HoustonRight on October 19, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I’m gonna have a schadenfreude beer myself. ;)

bazil9 on October 19, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Enjoy…and make sure you spread that link around.

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Rasmussen stated today that Romney will go back in front tomorrow with his 3 day moving average. Also, and this is key, Obama as an incumbent has NEVER been above 50%. An incumbent below 50% only 2 weeks before an election will lose. Add the fact that no one who has been above 50% in Gallup at this point has lost. Add all these things up I would say Romney wins 310 EV to 228.

Ta111 on October 19, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Poll: Romney now leads by one in New Hampshire — and Iowa

You know who this helps?

Romney!

SparkPlug on October 19, 2012 at 5:24 PM

No presidential candidate has ever won an election under 50%…and every candidate who has over 50% in October has won…every single candidate over 50% in October has won.

right2bright on October 19, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I’d like it better if Romney were over 50% in both Rasmussen and Gallup. In regards to the over all look at swing states, I’ll remain quietly optimistic.

ShadowsPawn on October 19, 2012 at 5:24 PM

As pertinent today as it was in 2010

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 4:56 PM

That was excellent. Thank you.

SailorMark on October 19, 2012 at 5:25 PM

what’s wrong with the MSM?

entagor on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

They’re intoxicated from Obama’s sh*t, which they mistook for Beluga caviar, the fools.

May they all suffocate from it.

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 5:25 PM

I still don’t understand what that poll is even doing in the RCP average. It has never been part of the mix before and doesn’t have any track record here. It did, however, manage to tilt the average blue for one day. Mission accomplished, I guess.

HTL on October 19, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Yep, I’m not sure why it’s there either. I only checked it out because I’m from CT. 37% of the respondents were from the south, which they have Obama winning by 9. Just…weird. The 15% independents seems odd, too. For a national poll. And this poll has Obama winning independents, too. Whatever.

joejm65 on October 19, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Come on Iowegians, do the right thing here.

I use the term Iowegians lovingly.

gmbdds on October 19, 2012 at 5:26 PM

SailorMark, you’re welcome. Make it make the rounds. It’s the best time to remind folks that this year is as important as 2010 and then some.

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Amen to that. Too many Californians coming in and screwing up our state, as if what they did to their own state wasn’t bad enough. But I think we’re going red this year. And Ken Salazar had better not set foot here again.

COgirl on October 19, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Where in CO are you located?

Norwegian on October 19, 2012 at 5:27 PM

WI has been getting anti-Romney ads for months. It’s only recently that any Romney ads have begun to air.

Obama is at 50% in the WI polls. Iowa or Colorado is a better bet. You still need Ohio. Romney will not be able to win WI or NV.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

By popular demand, the perennial remind about gumby’s credibility on Wisconsin analysis:

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.
The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Chuck Schick on October 19, 2012 at 5:27 PM

It is also worth noting that it is based on three polls with D+7, D+8 and D+9 partisan weighting. Which is crazy.

HTL on October 19, 2012 at 5:00 PM

IBD/TIPP’s poll is especially crazy. It has Obama winning nearly 1/3 of self-described “conservatives”.

Between that and Rasmussens’ DEM +5 rating, I’d say the true lead is probably closer to Gallup’s.

Norwegian on October 19, 2012 at 5:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Gosh, that’s so discouraging. Ok, you win. I’ll just stay home election day.

//

BacaDog on October 19, 2012 at 5:30 PM

DMR: Romney doing better in early voting in Iowa than any other R previously.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Denver Post and a common fence post got the same grades in fenceing class.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Add all these things up I would say Romney wins 310 EV to 228.

Ta111 on October 19, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Depending on how big the wave is 317-347 for RR

Animal60 on October 19, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Hey, dumbygumbyandpokey, you have your own page now!

RuPoll, The Obama Poll-Troll

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 5:33 PM

DMR: Romney doing better in early voting in Iowa than any other R previously.

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM

What part of “broken glass” is the press not getting?

2010?

Wisconsin? Twice?

chick-fil-a?

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Jeez, that’s not optimal either.

nico on October 19, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Exit quotation: “Now it’s a war on women. Tomorrow it’s going to be a war on left-handed Irishmen or something like that.”

As an ambidextrous Irishman, I hope it doesn’t come to that as part of me will be very upset. Luckily the other part of me will probably be drunk, so I won’t remember.

nextgen_repub on October 19, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Here is how I have the Electoral College today based on my information gathering

Romney at 261 bringing home Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, and Missouri.

Obama at 227

with Nevada, Minnesota, Iowa, Oiho, and Wisconsin as toss ups. I have no information on the other 7 states.

And I too would love to see Romney try to “steal” Illinois and/or Hawaii.

Robbin Hood on October 19, 2012 at 5:36 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Says you, liar. You’ve been wrong so many times here. Why should anyone believe you?

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 5:36 PM

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