Oh my: Paul Ryan campaigning tomorrow in … western Pennsylvania

posted at 8:44 pm on October 19, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yesterday the bombshell Susquehanna poll, now this. Dude, is this happening?

Actually, I think this is less about putting Pennsylvania in play (for now) than it is about messing with Democrats’ heads and making a pitch to southeastern Ohio next door, but it’s a fun little gambit.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, will return to Pennsylvania on Saturday for the first time in two months as independent polls show a narrowing race in the key Electoral College state.

The Romney campaign said Ryan will appear at a morning rally in a private hangar by Pittsburgh International Airport. Tom Smith, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, will speak at the rally…

Pittsburgh is a strategically important area for the Republican Party. The city’s media market reaches eastern Ohio, a primary battleground state, and heavily populated southwestern Pennsylvania is an area of growing strength for Republicans. Republicans hope to sway the area’s conservative Reagan Democrats, who are turning away from Obama but have not fully embraced Romney.

A new Fox News poll of Ohio tonight has Romney within three, a gain of four points since last month — despite a sample that’s actually more Democratic this month (D+8) than it was before the gamechanging first debate (D+6). Ohio’s 2008 exit poll was also D+8 but that won’t be duplicated this time, which suggests Fox may actually be lowballing Romney’s strength. Even weirder, check out the independent column:

Romney’s not going to win indies by 24 points, I assume, but he’s also not going to lose the state if he wins them by a heavy margin. Meanwhile, in Florida

A Fox News poll of Florida likely voters shows Republican nominee Mitt Romney now tops Barack Obama in the battleground state by 48 percent to 45 percent.

The poll, released Friday, shows an eight-point reversal and a four-point increase for Romney. Last month, he trailed Obama by 44-49 percent (September 16-18, 2012)…

Consider this: Obama tops Romney by one percentage point among women now, down from a 19-point edge last month. And Romney has extended his advantage among married women to 13 points, up from a seven-point edge.

There’s your best evidence yet of how useless, and maybe even counterproductive, all the “war on women” crap was. They turned Romney into such a gargoyle over the summer that once women finally got to see him in action at the debate, the scariness seems to have melted away almost instantly. Incidentally, Romney’s also up by a point in CNN’s new poll of Florida, the seventh(!) poll in a row showing him ahead in that state. Ace’s co-blogger/poll-cruncher CAC thinks that state’s now in the bag for Mitt, but of course Obama won’t abandon it since the resulting headlines would look brutal. With Florida in Romney’s column, he stands at 235 electoral votes; if you think he’ll eke it out in Virginia and Colorado too, then bump him up to 257. That leaves him needing 13 EVs, which he can get from one or more of Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), or of course Ohio (18). Those first two will be very tough, even with Romney’s surge in PA, and he’s actually never led in a poll in the next two. Winning NH and IA won’t get him over the hump without more, so … yeah, it might be Ohio or bust. Cross those fingers.


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301

Bmore on October 20, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Our two person household in IA gets two flies each day!

ConcealedKerry on October 20, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Er Fliers but ah flies too and some fleas

ConcealedKerry on October 20, 2012 at 9:50 PM

I guess we will not know anything until election day. It is a very abnormal election year. Here in MI the political signs are virtually non existent for both candidates. I drive into Detroit three times per week and the Obama signs are limited at best, a few scattered here and there. In 2008 you could not escape the Obama brand here.

There is no real conversation on politics at the work place or in public settings, in 2008 you could not escape it. My theory is this: We all know if we put a Romney/Ryan sign in our yard or place of business, we are racist. The left and the media have told us so. People must be too embarrassed to put up an Obama/Biden sign because, well, everything sucks. So, you don’t put up a Romney sign because you are racist, and you are not going to admit you are voting for a failure. That has to be it. The people are waiting, waiting, waiting.. to pounce. My money is on Romney.

shar61 on October 21, 2012 at 7:03 AM

Winning NH and IA won’t get him over the hump without more, so … yeah, it might be Ohio or bust. Cross those fingers.

Add NV to those two and he wins without OH, PA, MI or WI. Alternatively, if he wins Wiscy (paging Paul Ryan, you’re wanted in Green Bay and Milwaukee) then he only needs one of any of the remaining toss up states (even NH would do) to sew up the win.

I’m glad to see that your status of the race agrees with what I see. I’ve had Mitt in this same position on the RCP build your own map for several weeks.

I consider this a bad case scenario for Mitt. If he has a good day, then Mitt could well run the table and turn this in to a blowout!

MJBrutus on October 21, 2012 at 8:22 AM

The new meme this morning is that Romney is doing horribly and knows he can’t win in OH, so moving into places like PA, WI, and MI is a sign of desperation on his part, not that he’s doing well and is expanding the map.

I’m always amazed at capacity of the left for self-delusion…

PetecminMd on October 21, 2012 at 8:25 AM

R and R are definitely not moving out of OH!! Silly meme! I was pleasantly surprised at the number of ads during the OSU game. 4-5 fliers a day in the mail from super pacs, Romney and RNC. Seeing fewer Obama ads. I get called everyday for polling although I never answer the phone.

1nolibgal on October 21, 2012 at 9:12 AM

For some reason, I believe that if Adolf Hitler was non-white AND running for POTUS he would get 79% of the non-white vote.

Please don’t flame me – I’m just stating the (nearly) obvious.

Hammie on October 21, 2012 at 12:42 PM

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