Oh my: Paul Ryan campaigning tomorrow in … western Pennsylvania

Wow! RCP has moved NH into Romney’s column:

EC:

Obama: 277

Romney: 261

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 11:15 PM

ClintACK on October 19, 2012 at 11:20 PM

It includes CO. CO was moved earlier today, along with FL and VA. :-)

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 11:21 PM

Ohio is out of reach, and it will be impossible since NV and WI are solid Obama (by small but cemented margins).

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:56 PM

OH is not out of reach according to your friend at NumbersMuncher. In fact, he says if the latest numbers are correct, it’s over for Obama.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 12:26 AM

But Rasmussen has Obama at 50%

In OH, Ras has Obama at 49% and Romney at 48% with a MOE of +/- 4 and D +5. It’s also a small sample of only 750 LVs.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

Nationally, Ras has them tied.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 1:02 AM

Friday Polling: National Race Tightens as Romney Gains in Battlegrounds

Today has a mixed bag of polling for Romney, but the new state polls today are looking better for him, even after the second debate..

National tracking polls show movement to Obama, but there are some caveats about them. The Rasmussen poll moved to a tie, at 48 percent each, but Scott Rasmussen noted, “In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage.” Romney dropped one point in Gallup, to a 51–45 lead among likely voters, but notable is that the president’s three-day approval among all adults dropped from 50–44 to 50–46. That would indicate yesterday was not a great Obama day, but as I mentioned earlier, it’s impossible to draw a direct correlation.

In state polls, Romney has had a much better day in polling (all of these polls were conducted after the second debate):

Florida: Two new Florida polls today from Rasmussen and CNN. Rasmussen has Romney inching to a five-point lead, 51–46. Romney’s favorable rating is now 54–45 and he leads on the economy by eight, foreign policy by seven, and he’s up 13 among independents. CNN’s poll has Romney up by just one point, 49–48, but that is a five-point improvement for Romney since their last Florida poll.

Virginia: Rasmussen has Romney gaining a point from last week to lead by three, 50–47. Romney’s favorable rating there is now 52–48 and he leads on the economy by five, trails on foreign policy by one, and is up four among independents.

Wisconsin: Rasmussen has Romney still down two to Obama, 50–48. Obama leads with independents, but Romney is up on the economy by five. This is a state where Romney is closing in, but he still hasn’t been able to break through with a lead since the Paul Ryan announcement in August.

Iowa: Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a post-debate poll with Romney up one, 49–48. This is an eight-point swing since their poll just after the DNC. Romney’s favorability has improved 16 points since their previous poll, and he leads on the economy by four.

New Hampshire: PPP also has Romney up by one, 49–48. This is a seven-point swing since their previous poll, and Romney has gained ten points in favorability since August. Romney leads on the economy by seven points.

One notable comment from PPP, based on their state polls: “Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer.”

Overall, that comment and Rasmussen’s seem to indicate that, at least for now, there is not going to be an obvious bounce for Obama from the second debate. What remains to be seen is whether Obama’s performance slows down the momentum that Romney received in the two weeks leading up to it, or if the underlying trajectory in Romney’s direction remains.

— Josh Jordan is a small-business market-research consultant. You can follow him on Twitter @Numbersmuncher.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 2:16 AM

WaPo this morning:

The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win.

(The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, we should note, shows him winning whites by just 11 percent.)

In 2008, white voters made up nearly three-fourths of the vote, while Latinos comprised 9 percent. Let’s say that, in the election on Nov. 6, there is a surge in the Latino vote (up to 11 percent of the electorate) and a coinciding drop in the white vote (down to 72 percent).

Given how small the Latino vote remains, the difference between losing it by 36 points — as John McCain did in 2008 — and losing it by 45 points — a worst-case scenario for Romney — amounts to about a 1 percent overall shift in the national race.

Meanwhile, if Romney won the white vote by 22 percent — a 10-point improvement over McCain — that would gain him 7 percent of the national vote over McCain and essentially even out the national popular vote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/18/mitt-romney-is-winning-the-white-vote-by-a-lot/

I’m not making any commentary on this as to whether it is a good or bad thing. That’s not the point! It’s a data point.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Gravis has him at 47% with a fair (D+3) sample.

I do not believe that all the pollsters will be wrong and Romney wins by, say, 2 pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:53 AM

BOOM!

Gravis has them TIED in Ohio. 41/32/27, MOE +/- 2.2

* R +6 w/men (50 to 44 percent)

* O +4 w/women (49 to 45 percent). Surprisingly low.

* 87% of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama

* 92% of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney

* R +19 w/Independents (52 to 33)

* O approval rating 44. Disapproval at 50.

* Right track/wrong track: 43/49

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM