Oh my: Paul Ryan campaigning tomorrow in … western Pennsylvania

posted at 8:44 pm on October 19, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yesterday the bombshell Susquehanna poll, now this. Dude, is this happening?

Actually, I think this is less about putting Pennsylvania in play (for now) than it is about messing with Democrats’ heads and making a pitch to southeastern Ohio next door, but it’s a fun little gambit.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, will return to Pennsylvania on Saturday for the first time in two months as independent polls show a narrowing race in the key Electoral College state.

The Romney campaign said Ryan will appear at a morning rally in a private hangar by Pittsburgh International Airport. Tom Smith, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, will speak at the rally…

Pittsburgh is a strategically important area for the Republican Party. The city’s media market reaches eastern Ohio, a primary battleground state, and heavily populated southwestern Pennsylvania is an area of growing strength for Republicans. Republicans hope to sway the area’s conservative Reagan Democrats, who are turning away from Obama but have not fully embraced Romney.

A new Fox News poll of Ohio tonight has Romney within three, a gain of four points since last month — despite a sample that’s actually more Democratic this month (D+8) than it was before the gamechanging first debate (D+6). Ohio’s 2008 exit poll was also D+8 but that won’t be duplicated this time, which suggests Fox may actually be lowballing Romney’s strength. Even weirder, check out the independent column:

Romney’s not going to win indies by 24 points, I assume, but he’s also not going to lose the state if he wins them by a heavy margin. Meanwhile, in Florida

A Fox News poll of Florida likely voters shows Republican nominee Mitt Romney now tops Barack Obama in the battleground state by 48 percent to 45 percent.

The poll, released Friday, shows an eight-point reversal and a four-point increase for Romney. Last month, he trailed Obama by 44-49 percent (September 16-18, 2012)…

Consider this: Obama tops Romney by one percentage point among women now, down from a 19-point edge last month. And Romney has extended his advantage among married women to 13 points, up from a seven-point edge.

There’s your best evidence yet of how useless, and maybe even counterproductive, all the “war on women” crap was. They turned Romney into such a gargoyle over the summer that once women finally got to see him in action at the debate, the scariness seems to have melted away almost instantly. Incidentally, Romney’s also up by a point in CNN’s new poll of Florida, the seventh(!) poll in a row showing him ahead in that state. Ace’s co-blogger/poll-cruncher CAC thinks that state’s now in the bag for Mitt, but of course Obama won’t abandon it since the resulting headlines would look brutal. With Florida in Romney’s column, he stands at 235 electoral votes; if you think he’ll eke it out in Virginia and Colorado too, then bump him up to 257. That leaves him needing 13 EVs, which he can get from one or more of Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), or of course Ohio (18). Those first two will be very tough, even with Romney’s surge in PA, and he’s actually never led in a poll in the next two. Winning NH and IA won’t get him over the hump without more, so … yeah, it might be Ohio or bust. Cross those fingers.


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Outside of Philadelphia, PA is coal and formerly steel. We’d like to see it come back. PA can be won by Romney. Keep on message. Jobs. Energy independence. Clean coal.

talkingpoints on October 19, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Pittsburgh is big coal country too and Romney has been hammering the EPA’s war on coal there. I pray that it is indeed making inroads. It would be so very delicious…..

LL

Lady Logician on October 19, 2012 at 10:51 PM

Here are some more pictures from the Florida rally. WOW!

SouthernGent on October 19, 2012 at 10:53 PM

Tough row to hoe. That was Murtha territory for a long time.

rayra on October 19, 2012 at 10:54 PM

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.
The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Flora Duh on October 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM

:) these gumbey ‘gems’ are back to haunt him :) …

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 10:55 PM

The people there might not be smart enough to vote against Obama.

rayra on October 19, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Here are some more pictures from the Florida rally. WOW!

SouthernGent on October 19, 2012 at 10:53 PM

O.M.G.!!!! Now I know how landslide looks like :)..

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Attention Team Romney…

… On Monday, I would like you to address one question to Pantload.

The attack in Libya lasted over five hours…

… as Commander in Chief, after you were notified and before you went to bed, what were your orders to the Military?

Seven Percent Solution on October 19, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Actually, I think this is less about putting Pennsylvania in play (for now) than it is about messing with Democrats’ heads and making a pitch to southeastern Ohio next door, but it’s a fun little gambit.

AP, I think you’re over-analyzing this a wee bit.

Dick Morris thinks the “Battleground 7″ have been so heavily contested that Mitt may have find the ground less toxic and more fertile in the the Next 4: PA, WI, MI and MN.

Figure that Obama has poured millions into OH and made over 200 visits there (him or his surrogates)during his presidency. I don’t think Ohioans believe in Obama as much as they don’t want to jilt the guy who took them to the prom. Too bad the experience hasn’t done them much good.

A few well-placed ads and/or campaign stops could reap huge dividends for both Mitt and the Senate races down-ticket.

Of course, Dick thinks it’s all a moot point, since he thinks Romney will sweep 10 of the 11 states in question.

I know an Eeyore won’t agree, so let’s agree to keep working, ok?

rwenger43 on October 19, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Wow! RCP has moved NH into Romney’s column:

EC:

Obama: 277

Romney: 261

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 11:15 PM

“Wow! RCP has moved NH into Romney’s column:”

The weird thing about that map is that they have Colorado in Obama’s column.

If you flip Colorado (which looks to be leaning Romney)… their map has Romney winning, without Ohio.

ClintACK on October 19, 2012 at 11:20 PM

ClintACK on October 19, 2012 at 11:20 PM

It includes CO. CO was moved earlier today, along with FL and VA. :-)

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 11:21 PM

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.
The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Flora Duh on October 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM

:) these gumbey ‘gems’ are back to haunt him :) …

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 10:55 PM

G*d, let it go.

I’m sick of the Gumby shite already.

Focus people. There are bigger fish to fry.

D*mn…

litebeam1 on October 19, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Will Joe Biden be there to make faces at him and interrupt him 83 times?

VorDaj on October 19, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Ohio is now at least as important to Obama as it is to Romney.

VorDaj on October 19, 2012 at 11:37 PM

Resist We Much on October 19, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Oh man, I’d hate to see Zero lose the popular vote and win the EC vote.

Cleombrotus on October 19, 2012 at 11:37 PM

Holy crap did you see this in Dayton Ohio

http://twitpic.com/b5ohpn

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:44 PM

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:44 PM

But a certain troll said that Romney crowd sizes aren’t that big!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 11:48 PM

Wow! RCP has moved NH into Romney’s column:

EC:

Obama: 277

Romney: 261

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Resist We Much

If that map is accurate, we need to get 9 EVs from somewhere. *If* Ohio is out of reach, it’s going to be tough.

xblade on October 19, 2012 at 11:49 PM

Ohio is going to Romney he has the indies the media is using +8 samples

http://twitpic.com/b5ohpn

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:53 PM

But a certain troll said that Romney crowd sizes aren’t that big!

wargamer6 on October 19, 2012 at 11:48 PM

How come the press never shows Obama crowds?

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:54 PM

“Holy crap did you see this in Dayton Ohio

http://twitpic.com/b5ohpn

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:44 PM”

Good Grief, this is why I have to be here.

That’s Daytona Beach, FL, not Dayton Ohio!

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:55 PM

“If that map is accurate, we need to get 9 EVs from somewhere. *If* Ohio is out of reach, it’s going to be tough.

xblade on October 19, 2012 at 11:49 PM”

Ohio is out of reach, and it will be impossible since NV and WI are solid Obama (by small but cemented margins).

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Holy crap did you see this in Dayton Ohio

http://twitpic.com/b5ohpn

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:44 PM

It’s Daytona, FL…not Dayton, OH

SouthernGent on October 19, 2012 at 11:57 PM

It’s Daytona, FL…not Dayton, OH

SouthernGent on October 19, 2012 at 11:57 PM

Yep sorry getting late

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 11:58 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Ha you wish. Now you’re using “cemented” instead of “locked”? Means the same stupid thing.

wargamer6 on October 20, 2012 at 12:01 AM

CBS is asking where was the military for 5 hours during bhegazi?

Conservative4ev on October 20, 2012 at 12:02 AM

Ohio is out of reach, and it will be impossible since NV and WI are solid Obama (by small but cemented margins).

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Can’t say about OIHO, but here in central MA not an Obama sign in sight. Big, Big difference from four years ago.
Not saying MA is in play but…

OTTO on October 20, 2012 at 12:06 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP tracker w/ Obama up 2 is a 1 pt increase from yesterday, but they increased from D+4 to D+6 sample. Romney gained pt w/ indys to +6.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:07 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Yes yes we know shill boy. Another poll for you to drool over tonight.

wargamer6 on October 20, 2012 at 12:08 AM

Gumby Humps

OTTO on October 20, 2012 at 12:10 AM

Gumby I wouldn’t set myself up when Obama loses Ohio. You do know there will be a banning of you after Romney wins right

Conservative4ev on October 20, 2012 at 12:13 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Gravis poll in OH releasing tomorrow will have Romney/Obama tied at, you know what’s coming next, 47%. Was Romney+1 after the first debate.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:19 AM

“Gumby I wouldn’t set myself up when Obama loses Ohio. You do know there will be a banning of you after Romney wins right

Conservative4ev on October 20, 2012 at 12:13 AM”

There’s no evidence Obama is losing OH. And I already have a bet where I leave if Romney wins, in addition to the 100.00 dollar wager.

But none of the polls give me pause at all.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:21 AM

My old man said there were close to 15k at the Mittens rally in Cuyahoga Falls, OH last week. But only 3k to see Billy and Springsteen in Berea today. #OHsnap

tommytom02 on October 20, 2012 at 12:21 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:21 AM

Of course not. Because all polls that have R in the lead are invalid.

wargamer6 on October 20, 2012 at 12:22 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Gravis poll in OH releasing tomorrow will have Romney/Obama tied at, you know what’s coming next, 47%. Was Romney+1 after the first debate.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:19 AM

Gimpy Obama is tied with a +D sampling, while Romney is increasing in indies, I wouldn’t bet that horse of yours

Conservative4ev on October 20, 2012 at 12:25 AM

Ohio is out of reach, and it will be impossible since NV and WI are solid Obama (by small but cemented margins).

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:56 PM

OH is not out of reach according to your friend at NumbersMuncher. In fact, he says if the latest numbers are correct, it’s over for Obama.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 12:26 AM

“NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Gravis poll in OH releasing tomorrow will have Romney/Obama tied at, you know what’s coming next, 47%. Was Romney+1 after the first debate.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:19 AM

Gimpy Obama is tied with a +D sampling, while Romney is increasing in indies, I wouldn’t bet that horse of yours

Conservative4ev on October 20, 2012 at 12:25 AM”

Gravis has been using a D+3 split, which is pretty good. I haven’t seen how indies are breaking in that poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:33 AM

OH is not out of reach according to your friend at NumbersMuncher. In fact, he says if the latest numbers are correct, it’s over for Obama.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 12:26 AM

The indies are breaking hard for Romney the undecides break for the challenger, the gotv is moving

Conservative4ev on October 20, 2012 at 12:36 AM

Hey, Gumby, read what NumbersMuncher has to say and don’t get hung up on the 46% b/c there’s much more to it than that:

Really, If Obama Is Only At 46% In Ohio With A D+8 Sample, He’s Finished There

Also, read what he has to say about the all-important problem Obama has with Independents:

Obama’s Independent Problem

Romney is leading with Indies in every poll and you keeping acting like it’s 2008. R turnout is going to be much higher and Obama is not going to win the Indie vote, which he did by 8 in 2008.

Romney’s been endorsed by 3 liberal newspapers this week; yet, somehow, we are supposed to think that there is no softness or erosion in Obama’s support or to expect that such will not be seen in turnout. It’s just faerie tale thinking to use 2008 turnout models. At best, it will be D +2-4, not D +5-9.

And, those auto workers in Ohio? Lee Iaccoca, a lifelong Democrat, endorsed Romney. They are not going to vote en banc for Obama and are also offset, in part, by coalminers, who are none-to-pleased with him.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 12:38 AM

Go to Scranton! Start pushing into their support areas. Western PA is yours already. The Philadelphia – Allentown – Scranton corridor is the base of the Democrat support in PA. Hit the Northern edge of it in Scranton. Maybe start in someplace like Carbondale, hit Wilkes-Barre. Put the fear into them!

crosspatch on October 20, 2012 at 12:47 AM

“Hey, Gumby, read what NumbersMuncher has to say and don’t get hung up on the 46% b/c there’s much more to it than that:

Really, If Obama Is Only At 46% In Ohio With A D+8 Sample, He’s Finished There”

If all polls showed Obama at 46% with a huge D oversample, then you might have a point. But Rasmussen has Obama at 50% and Gravis has him at 47% with a fair (D+3) sample.

I do not believe that all the pollsters will be wrong and Romney wins by, say, 2 pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:53 AM

Ryan was such a good choice. Romney could not have done better

entagor on October 20, 2012 at 12:56 AM

If all polls showed Obama at 46% with a huge D oversample, then you might have a point. But Rasmussen has Obama at 50% and Gravis has him at 47% with a fair (D+3) sample.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:53 AM

That wasn’t MY point. That was Josh Jordan’s point. You know Josh Jordan, don’t you? He’s the NumbersMuncher guy whose tweets you keep posting.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 12:57 AM

But Rasmussen has Obama at 50%

In OH, Ras has Obama at 49% and Romney at 48% with a MOE of +/- 4 and D +5. It’s also a small sample of only 750 LVs.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

Nationally, Ras has them tied.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 1:02 AM

“In OH, Ras has Obama at 49% and Romney at 48% with a MOE of +/- 4 and D +5. It’s also a small sample of only 750 LVs.”

Is the D+5 the split for OH?

I thought that was for his national tracking.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 1:10 AM

It’s D+9 on that Gravis poll

wargamer6 on October 20, 2012 at 1:33 AM

I think Minnesota, Iowa, and Pennsylvania are going Romney.
Frankly, if you are a white suburbanite there does not seem much to fear about this guy. He might balance the check book and still let your neighbor’s daughter get the abortion you feel is so important. Liberal think.

pat on October 20, 2012 at 2:08 AM

Friday Polling: National Race Tightens as Romney Gains in Battlegrounds

Today has a mixed bag of polling for Romney, but the new state polls today are looking better for him, even after the second debate..

National tracking polls show movement to Obama, but there are some caveats about them. The Rasmussen poll moved to a tie, at 48 percent each, but Scott Rasmussen noted, “In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage.” Romney dropped one point in Gallup, to a 51–45 lead among likely voters, but notable is that the president’s three-day approval among all adults dropped from 50–44 to 50–46. That would indicate yesterday was not a great Obama day, but as I mentioned earlier, it’s impossible to draw a direct correlation.

In state polls, Romney has had a much better day in polling (all of these polls were conducted after the second debate):

Florida: Two new Florida polls today from Rasmussen and CNN. Rasmussen has Romney inching to a five-point lead, 51–46. Romney’s favorable rating is now 54–45 and he leads on the economy by eight, foreign policy by seven, and he’s up 13 among independents. CNN’s poll has Romney up by just one point, 49–48, but that is a five-point improvement for Romney since their last Florida poll.

Virginia: Rasmussen has Romney gaining a point from last week to lead by three, 50–47. Romney’s favorable rating there is now 52–48 and he leads on the economy by five, trails on foreign policy by one, and is up four among independents.

Wisconsin: Rasmussen has Romney still down two to Obama, 50–48. Obama leads with independents, but Romney is up on the economy by five. This is a state where Romney is closing in, but he still hasn’t been able to break through with a lead since the Paul Ryan announcement in August.

Iowa: Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a post-debate poll with Romney up one, 49–48. This is an eight-point swing since their poll just after the DNC. Romney’s favorability has improved 16 points since their previous poll, and he leads on the economy by four.

New Hampshire: PPP also has Romney up by one, 49–48. This is a seven-point swing since their previous poll, and Romney has gained ten points in favorability since August. Romney leads on the economy by seven points.

One notable comment from PPP, based on their state polls: “Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer.”

Overall, that comment and Rasmussen’s seem to indicate that, at least for now, there is not going to be an obvious bounce for Obama from the second debate. What remains to be seen is whether Obama’s performance slows down the momentum that Romney received in the two weeks leading up to it, or if the underlying trajectory in Romney’s direction remains.

— Josh Jordan is a small-business market-research consultant. You can follow him on Twitter @Numbersmuncher.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 2:16 AM

Romney doesn’t have to decide today whether to move money and staff into Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. It is only good business not to commit to such a broad attack too soon, lest you end up wasting resources.

Remember the nightmare in 2000? Well, if Bush had not foolishly made those late trips to California in a doomed attempt to steal the state, he could have spent more time in Florida and it likely wouldn’t have been so close.

Obama is the one who needs to worry now. It is he who is playing defense on the electoral map. It is he who is withdrawing from battleground states to concentrate his efforts. Obama is backing up. Romney doesn’t need to swing wildly.

Obama’s arrogance helps give Romney more time, too. Obama doesn’t have much in the way of ground game in those states he was fairly certain of winning, like PA or MI. He’s not running ads there either (except both sides’ national cable ads do get seen). So if the polls get and stay close, with Obama under 50%, Romney could steal a medium state very late in the campaign.

Adjoran on October 20, 2012 at 4:34 AM

Western PA hates Obama. They could run a ham sandwich and win against him in western PA.

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 6:18 AM

Keep in mind that Iowa + Nevada is sufficient for Romney to be president because the House will be in Republican hands.

With Iowa + Nevada (and no Ohio) we have a 269-269.

FBones on October 20, 2012 at 7:03 AM

Keep in mind that Iowa + Nevada is sufficient for Romney to be president because the House will be in Republican hands.

With Iowa + Nevada (and no Ohio) we have a 269-269.

FBones on October 20, 2012 at 7:03 AM

I see where you’re going, but actually Iowa + Nevada is sufficient for Romney because that will be 273. NH isn’t going for Obama this year.

But yes, there are multiple paths here. OH or PA (or MI) are instant game over for Barky. As is WI, with CO staying our way. IA, NV are a nice back way to victory.

Gingotts on October 20, 2012 at 7:42 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Such a fool..

Any post with a poll in it draws the Gumbass like a fly to a cake at the picnic..

he simply can’t stop himself..

I fully expect a wailing railing rambling post after Mitt carries Ohio on election night, about Bain voting machines..

He’s simply spreading lies so he can come back later and try to discredit a legitimate Obama thrashing at the polls..

“we was robbed”…

The left has nothing else… but lies and excuses..

mark81150 on October 20, 2012 at 8:11 AM

Western PA hates Obama. They could run a ham sandwich and win against him in western PA.

petefrt on October 20, 2012 at 6:18 AM

Hope so,.. I just don’t know enough about PA’s internal politics to have an intelligent comment on it… I’m a pure Buckeye..

I wish people like gummy would have the same rule I do.. If you don’t know about it, shut up and learn from those who do..

But then, he’d never post ..

and trolls by definition can’t not post.. AxelDick would take his internet porn away.

mark81150 on October 20, 2012 at 8:16 AM

Off topic… I apologize..

Wed. night I mentioned I was having some tests done on Friday.. they were looking for cancer..

Thank you Lord Jesus.. They didn’t find any.. though the biopsies will take a couple of weeks.. the doctor said from the scope, I looked entirely cancer free.

Just didn’t want to leave folks hanging.. so many wished me well, and offered a prayer.

I truly and fully appreciate all the best wishes and prayers..

The people here, are good people..

and it shows.

mark81150 on October 20, 2012 at 8:21 AM

Romney +1 in today’s Rasmussen, 49-48.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 8:50 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
SurveyUSA FL poll out w/ O up 1, 47-46. Romney leads indys by 4. Sample is D+9 (was D+3 in 2008, even in 2010). So triple 08 adv and O wins.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 8:52 AM

mark81150 on October 20, 2012 at 8:21 AM

praises

hillsoftx on October 20, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I’ll just remind people that the McCain campaign made the exact same decision this time in 2008, campaign hard in Pennsylvania, particularly in Western PA in the hopes of winning the election through PA. To be sure, Romney is in a stronger position than McCain was, but the GOP *always* makes a PA push. To me, it suggests they realize that Ohio isn’t budging and they need an alternative to 270 that includes PA.

libfreeordie on October 20, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I’ll just remind people that the McCain campaign made the exact same decision this time in 2008, campaign hard in Pennsylvania, particularly in Western PA in the hopes of winning the election through PA. To be sure, Romney is in a stronger position than McCain was, but the GOP *always* makes a PA push. To me, it suggests they realize that Ohio isn’t budging and they need an alternative to 270 that includes PA.

libfreeordie on October 20, 2012 at 9:04 AM

For Romney Pennsylvania is Gravy, for McCain it was a Hail Mary pass.

rob verdi on October 20, 2012 at 9:14 AM

libfree,
As for Ohio I think you could flip a coin, but I also believe Republicans will show up in massive droves, Democrats will also have a good turnout, and Indies will break Romney. As a matter of fact I think that will be the template for the whole election.

rob verdi on October 20, 2012 at 9:16 AM

WaPo this morning:

The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win.

(The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, we should note, shows him winning whites by just 11 percent.)

In 2008, white voters made up nearly three-fourths of the vote, while Latinos comprised 9 percent. Let’s say that, in the election on Nov. 6, there is a surge in the Latino vote (up to 11 percent of the electorate) and a coinciding drop in the white vote (down to 72 percent).

Given how small the Latino vote remains, the difference between losing it by 36 points — as John McCain did in 2008 — and losing it by 45 points — a worst-case scenario for Romney — amounts to about a 1 percent overall shift in the national race.

Meanwhile, if Romney won the white vote by 22 percent — a 10-point improvement over McCain — that would gain him 7 percent of the national vote over McCain and essentially even out the national popular vote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/18/mitt-romney-is-winning-the-white-vote-by-a-lot/

I’m not making any commentary on this as to whether it is a good or bad thing. That’s not the point! It’s a data point.

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 9:23 AM

libfreeordie on October 20, 2012 at 9:04 AM

2012 is nothing like 2008, fool.

wargamer6 on October 20, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Those first two will be very tough, even with Romney’s surge in PA, and he’s actually never led in a poll in the next two.

Uhhhhhhhhh…yeah he has. He led in both Rasmussen’s and PPP’s mid-August Wisconsin polls and in Dane & Associates 10/8-10/10 Nevada poll.

Ross Douhat needs to stick to opinion journalism, because reporting on facts doesn’t seem to be his forte.

steebo77 on October 20, 2012 at 9:29 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 8:52 AM

So you’re posting a tweet pointing out a poll that is skewed six points toward the Democrats beyond even the 2008 turnout? I thought your M.O. was to post good news for Obama…. That says that it takes a triple skewing to manage even the slightest lead.

You gotta start bringing better crap to the table if you want to keep playing…

Gingotts on October 20, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Attention Team Romney…

… On Monday, I would like you to address one question to Pantload.

The attack in Libya lasted over five hours…

… as Commander in Chief, after you were notified and before you went to bed, what were your orders to the Military?

Seven Percent Solution on October 19, 2012 at 10:58 PM

How does someone actually sleep knowing that people are in that situation in the first place let alone go on planning your fundraisers. Disgusting man, ruthless, evil administration.

wi farmgirl on October 20, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Keep in mind that Iowa + Nevada is sufficient for Romney to be president because the House will be in Republican hands.

With Iowa + Nevada (and no Ohio) we have a 269-269.

FBones on October 20, 2012 at 7:03 AM

Actually, with Iowa and one district from Maine, Romney gets to 269. Nut I don’t think it will be that close. It will be between 317-347 for Romney, depending on “the wave”

Animal60 on October 20, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I’ll just remind people that the McCain campaign made the exact same decision this time in 2008, campaign hard in Pennsylvania, particularly in Western PA in the hopes of winning the election through PA. To be sure, Romney is in a stronger position than McCain was, but the GOP *always* makes a PA push. To me, it suggests they realize that Ohio isn’t budging and they need an alternative to 270 that includes PA.

libfreeordie on October 20, 2012 at 9:04 AM

What isn’t budging is Obama past the 46-47%,.

Animal60 on October 20, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Wow, Rasmussen has Romney up 5 in FL and up 4 in swing States, INCLUDING PA, MI and WI!

This is blowing open.

It appears Romney has surged as a result of the last debate, not Obama.

** Remember that nationally at least, Rasmussen is still using a Dem +5 turnout model – highly unlikely.

mitchellvii on October 20, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Pennsylvania was one of the biggest reasons Democrats forced Barack Obama to run in 2008. They knew that only a giant tunrout in Philly would win the state. He isn’t popular anywhere else, witness that he did not win the primary in 2008. If he doesn’t get close to that 2008 turnout, and he won’t, he won’t win the state. Period.

I like the metaphor that Dick Morris used. In PA we haven’t seen any of the nasty attack ads Obama has been running 24/7 in Ohio since June. Romney defined himself in the debates, which is why we saw that poll this week showing him actually ahead. I don’t even think Romney needs to spend a lot of money on TV, just a couple of stops in Bucks County, York or Lancaster, and Pittsburgh could do the trick. Philly is the 4th most expensive TV market in the country.

The fact that Tom Smith is appearing with Ryan today is also telling. Smith has literally come out of nowhere and is now ahead of Bob Casey in some polls. He is financing his won campaign and has unlimited resources to help both himself and Romney/Ryan down the stretch. He has run a LOT of ads in Philly and they have tied Casey to Obama’s unpopular agenda (Obamacare, debt, etc.)

rockmom on October 20, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Hope so,.. I just don’t know enough about PA’s internal politics to have an intelligent comment on it… I’m a pure Buckeye..

I wish people like gummy would have the same rule I do.. If you don’t know about it, shut up and learn from those who do..

But then, he’d never post ..

and trolls by definition can’t not post.. AxelDick would take his internet porn away.

mark81150 on October 20, 2012 at 8:16 AM

Pa is pretty conservative…..they elected a Repub. governor. Western and Central Pa. is strongly conservative….those that bitterly cling to guns and religion. (Opening day of deer hunting is a sate holiday……schools, banks close etc.) Inner city Pittsburgh and the Philly are the lib’s strongholds….especially Philly. The eastern fringe is tainted by New Jersey.

Animal60 on October 20, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Gravis has him at 47% with a fair (D+3) sample.

I do not believe that all the pollsters will be wrong and Romney wins by, say, 2 pts.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:53 AM

BOOM!

Gravis has them TIED in Ohio. 41/32/27, MOE +/- 2.2

* R +6 w/men (50 to 44 percent)

* O +4 w/women (49 to 45 percent). Surprisingly low.

* 87% of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama

* 92% of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney

* R +19 w/Independents (52 to 33)

* O approval rating 44. Disapproval at 50.

* Right track/wrong track: 43/49

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-ohio-poll-shows.html

Resist We Much on October 20, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Romney hits 50% in Ras swing state polls for the first time.

Now leads by 4: 50-46

Zybalto on October 20, 2012 at 10:12 AM

According to the latest Gallup survey, Mitt Romney is polling 52% of likely voters. At this point in the race he is ahead of:

Where Jimmy Carter was in 1976 (47%)

Where Ronald Reagan was in 1980 (39% — Carter was six points up)

Where George H.W. Bush was in 1988 (50%)

Where Bill Clinton was in 1992 (40%)

Where George W. Bush was in 2000 (48%)

Where Barack Obama was in 2008 (49%)

Animal60 on October 20, 2012 at 10:20 AM

gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Flora Duh on October 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM

:) these gumbey ‘gems’ are back to haunt him :) …

jimver on October 19, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Funny, in those days it was still making like a Concerned Republican. Now there is not even any pretext.

hawkdriver on October 20, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Saw a guy on Fox News last night and he said something interesting. For those who doubt GOP voter enthusiasm, think of the Chik Fil A support across the nation. If so many are willing to support a chicken sandwich establishment, imagine the turnout on election day. Romney will win.

Oink on October 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

WHY LIBERALS SHOULD VOTE FOR ROMNEY:

Liberals will never believe that their message was wrong, only that they had the wrong messenger.

Think about this. If Obama wins he is inheriting an economy about to go over the fiscal cliff. The Middle East is on fire. World War III could easily start on his watch. The credit card is maxed out. He has a hostile Congress. There is every indication that his next 4 years will be difficult if not a complete disaster.

And if Obama goes down, he will take Liberalism and Keynesian Economics with him. Hillary will have NO CHANCE in 2016.

So Liberals, if you truly believe Romney will fail, VOTE FOR HIM! Leave him with this mess. After 4 years of complete disaster Hillary will easily win in 2016 and you will take the House and Senate too.

Liberals, sacrifice the Obama Presidency to save you message!

mitchellvii on October 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Yeah! Start in the West and roll the wave East. Pennsy is Red-ripe to be plucked for the good guys. The Keystone State has been described as a T, with Philly and Pittsburgh on either end and Tennessee in the middle. Pretty apt. Write off most of Philadelphia and its 99 percent Obama voting machines (likely being set as we speak.) Was born there, raised there, lived there as adult. Was just there the other day. Love-hate relationship with that city. As one upstater friend told me years ago: “The rest of the country thinks the devil lives in New York. Up here they know Satan resides in Philadelphia.” The Democrat Party and its brand of legitimized organized crime may not have been founded there, but it was refined and polished there. I once heard an elected official tell a group, when he was challenged on the institutionalized corruption of the city Democrat machine: “You sell your a$$ but not your soul.” Well he ended up in jail so more often than not Democrats everywhere then and now offer a two-for-one special. If it weren’t for the federal historic area Philadelphia would have been Detroit before Detroit was. But a few campaign stops are worth making, two of the three suggested here might resonate nationally: 1) local-value, on the chance that some of the districts can keep their ballots clean. (Ya never know. Worth a shot.) There is a large section known as The Northeast. It tried to secede from the city some years ago. Would have called itself “Liberty”. It has long been unsatisfied with the services it receives for the taxes it drops on the city to squander. 2) The Federal District. Yes, but forget the contrived tourist-targeted Constitution Center. Forget Independence Hall except for maybe an iconic photo walk-by. Instead go to two overlooked spots: Carpenters Hall, site of the First Continental Congress. No crowds. Do a nice speech about the intent of the Founders there; And the Graff House (aka the Jefferson House, aka the Declaration House.) This is where TJ sat and put quill to paper to hammer out the Declaration of Independence. The room is preserved. Make a nice speech there about Jeffersonian values. And finally — in the spirit of in-your-face, play-the-game-for-keeps — a stop at the polling place where four years ago the Panthers wielded clubs. Don’t mention the thugs. Let the media arrive at the significance of the locale on their own. But a nice short speech about how the incumbent does not have the best interests of any commuuuunity in the USA at heart, and how everyone’s vote is sacred and should be protected by everyone else (Voter ID, etc). Mention the administration’s assaults on liberty. Let the administration react. So, they’ll never win Philadelphia but there are national points to be made in the Cradle of Liberty. Even though decades of one-party Democrat tyranny and theft have soiled the sheets.

curved space on October 20, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Saw a guy on Fox News last night and he said something interesting. For those who doubt GOP voter enthusiasm, think of the Chik Fil A support across the nation. If so many are willing to support a chicken sandwich establishment, imagine the turnout on election day. Romney will win.

Oink on October 20, 2012 at 10:37 AM

He must read this site. A bunch of us have been saying that for months. Chick-Fil-A Appreciation Day on its own could be dismissed. But when you look at Tea Party rallies, hundreds of thousands paying out of their own pockets to go to DC for both a Tea Party and Beck rally(the latter of which the attendees didn’t even know the true purpose of), the townhall turnout during the Obamacare debate, the 2010 midterm results, the Scott Brown victory, the Scott Walker recall results, the box office returns for 2016: Obama’s America, and the aforementioned Chick-Fil-A support, how can anyone in their right mind not expect Republicans and conservatives to turn out in droves to vote in this election?

Doughboy on October 20, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I’ve thought for a few weeks that Pa is a possible win for Romney. In fact, Pa may be easier to win than Ohio. The unionized auto workers seem pretty strong for Obama, and Ohio has lots of them. Pa, not so many.

BTW, Pa is near NORTHeastern Ohio, which is more Obama country. Southeastern Ohio, where Romney is stronger, borders on WVA and Kentucky. I grew up in east central Ohio, not too far south of where WVA, Ohio, and Pa come together.

JayDick on October 20, 2012 at 11:05 AM

mark81150 on October 20, 2012 at 8:21 AM

Great news, Mark. Stay healthy.

Brat on October 20, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Uh-oh Gumby! OH Early Vote numbers show huge shift for GOP.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2947417/posts

Yikes.

newtopia on October 20, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Althouse is reporting that when Jon Stewart announced that Zero was coming up on his show…CRICKETS from the audience!! Stewart waited for the applause, the hoots and hollers…and it never came! THAT is Zero’s base — the brain dead yoots. He. Is. Toast.

Rational Thought on October 20, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I know Ohio is the epicenter of campaigning, and Romney will have to sat hard there because Obama has really gone after buiding the defenses here – but I think Romney is ahead for all the reasons we all know:

most polling samples have D+ numbers that are wildly optimistic
gender gap is much smaller
indies are not going to break for Obama
early voting is in the GOP favor vs Dem
voting role purges cost Dems over 400K votes

I think that Obama is pouring so much into Ohio that it is impacting his ability to fight in the other states. I also think if any monkey business occurs it will be here.

330-210 Pomney

Zomcon JEM on October 20, 2012 at 11:55 AM

And I already have a bet where I leave if Romney wins, in addition to the 100.00 dollar wager.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:21 AM

You’ll be leaving after the election anyway when your paychecks from Chicago stop and you go back to your old job of posting fake customer reviews of Depends™ on nursing home websites.

Alberta_Patriot on October 20, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Gravis has been using a D+3 split, which is pretty good. I haven’t seen how indies are breaking in that poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 12:33 AM

LOL!

It’s a D+9 and Romney’s winning indies by 19!!!!!!!!

Paint Ohio red.

Chuck Schick on October 20, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Romney +1 in today’s Rasmussen, 49-48.

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 8:50 AM

An improvement from yesterday. So much for the debate bounce.

And R50/46 in swing states – biggest lead yet.

Chuck Schick on October 20, 2012 at 12:32 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gravis OH poll has a tied race @ 47%. Romney leads indys by 19 and O approval at 44-50. Sample is D+9. That is not a good poll for O…

D+9, gummy. Not D+3.

Chuck Schick on October 20, 2012 at 12:36 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
SurveyUSA FL poll out w/ O up 1, 47-46. Romney leads indys by 4. Sample is D+9 (was D+3 in 2008, even in 2010). So triple 08 adv and O wins.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 20, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Great news for Obama! All he has to do is TRIPLE his 2008 turnout advantage to eek out a statistical tie.

Chuck Schick on October 20, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Romney is winning the white vote — by a lot

The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win.

WaPo

Chuck Schick on October 20, 2012 at 12:42 PM

/ “obligatory” Ryan smile /

maverick muse on October 20, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Gallup unchanged, but Romney picks up 1 with RVs. Alot of good poll news for Romney today.

Chuck Schick on October 20, 2012 at 1:10 PM

You’ll be leaving after the election anyway when your paychecks from Chicago stop and you go back to your old job of posting fake customer reviews of Depends™ on nursing home websites.

Alberta_Patriot on October 20, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Bwahahaha … That’s a good one there. Thanks for making me shed tears of laughter. :)

Nicole Coulter on October 20, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Ryan is coming out to energize, where the campaigns have not been able to spread the advertising dollars before now.

Western PA and Western NY, with a few exceptions, were painted red for McCain county by county last time. You just need to get out more voters in Western NY and PA to balance out the urban areas. In NYS it is Manhattan, population 8 million that is the trouble.

Fleuries on October 20, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Paul Ryan is coming to western IA Council Bluffs sunday noon not so red. territory. Sioux city sunday at three the reddest of red. He is appearing at a venue that only holds 700 standing room only. Last week Billy Jeff campaigned for Christie Vilsack in her Carpet Bagger House race against Steve King outside a strip club downtown no word if Monica was there but christies husband king of Ag Dept food stamps reportedly was.

These venues border NE and SD. Its GOTV time, door walkers in my hood today didn’t stop at my house with the empty chair, the NOBAMA sign, the R&R sign, King Sign and Gadsden flag flying below Old Glory, and protected by the Trespassers will be shot, survivors shot again! sign

ConcealedKerry on October 20, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Pleased to hear your good news, Mark !!

pambi on October 20, 2012 at 7:30 PM

rockmom on October 20, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Romney can win Montgomery County, easy. McCain won the district I lived in there.

I need to see more Mitt ads here in PA. Big time. I have barely seen any. I’ve gotten one flyer in the mail.

Philly on October 20, 2012 at 8:25 PM

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