A popular-vote/Electoral College split?

posted at 9:21 am on October 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Hey, who’s up for another 2000 election — or 1876?  Charlie Cook and other analysts are warning this week that we may see another split between the outcomes of the popular vote and the Electoral College, but color me skeptical:

Partisans still hoping that their candidate will build a clear lead in the presidential contest are likely to be disappointed. The race seems destined to be a close one, with the outcome remaining in doubt to the very end. President Obama won the second debate, but not by nearly enough to make up for his devastating loss in the first one. Obama was on the verge of putting the race away heading into the first debate, but his weak performance and Mitt Romney’s commanding effort effectively changed the race’s trajectory. Although Obama’s poll numbers are no longer dropping, he is locked in a tight contest: He trails Romney by 1 to 4 percentage points in national polling, yet he still holds a fragile lead in the Electoral College.

Romney entered the first debate with an edge arguably in only one battleground state: North Carolina. Going into the second debate, the former Massachusetts governor also led narrowly in Florida and Virginia, putting him ahead in three of 11 battleground states. Obama now holds small leads in ColoradoIowaNew Hampshire, and Wisconsin, with a slightly wider advantage in Nevada. He still leads, in my judgment, inOhio by about 4 points (although going into the second debate, one senior Romney strategist claimed that the two men were essentially tied at 47 percent in the Buckeye State). Romney is polling far back in Michigan andPennsylvania, states that are effectively noncompetitive.

Although history and this column have argued that the popular vote and the electoral vote usually go in the same direction (that’s what happened in 53 of 56 presidential elections), today, Romney’s national popular-vote situation is different than his Electoral College challenge. Romney’s scar tissue in swing states—the damage inflicted on him by negative ads funded by the Obama campaign and Priorities USA, targeting Bain Capital, plant closings, layoffs, outsourcing, income taxes, and bank accounts in Bermuda, the Caymans, and Switzerland—is still a huge problem. This is compounded by the fact that before the ads aired, voters knew very little about Romney; because of that, they had no positive feelings or perceptions to help him weather the assault. As a result, the attacks stuck as if he were covered in Velcro. Hence, the swing states, many of which have endured saturation advertising since June (73,000 ads in Las Vegas alone), behave differently than the fortysomething other states that have seen little advertising. …

I am now reconciled to the fact that this will be a race to the wire. I am watching Ohio and a handful of other swing states that are right at, or near, the 270-electoral-vote tipping point. In the end, the odds still favor the popular and electoral vote heading in the same direction, but the chances of a split like the one in 2000 are very real, along with the distinct possibility of ambiguity and vote-counting issues once again putting the outcome in question. Ugh.

Does the possibility exist?  Sure.  Is it “very real”? I suppose since it’s real, it’s very real, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.  In our entire history, it has happened exactly three times in 56 presidential election cycles.  The last time was twelve years ago, but previous to that, one has to go back 124 years.

This long shot would be a national nightmare, but a media dream.  One reporter (I can’t recall who) tweeted yesterday that journalists who aren’t pulling for that outcome need to rethink their commitment to their profession.  I’d say that those journalists who do root for this outcome need to rethink their priorities.  It would be another weeks-long mess, hardly what this country or its citizens need, regardless whether it sells a few more papers.

I consider this with the same seriousness as talk of brokered conventions.  They’re always possible, and they almost never happen.  In this case, Cook probably needs to check a few of his assumptions, since Pennsylvania and Michigan are closer in recent polling than he credits, and with that I’d suspect that Ohio is probably not giving Obama an edge, either.  Suffolk has already pulled out of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, declaring that their polling gives Obama no chance to win any of the three states.  If Obama manages to win enough battleground states to win the EC, he’s going to win the popular vote, too — or perhaps Cook thinks that Romney’s going to get massive margins of victory in California, New York, and Illinois.

Besides, the law is clear. Whoever win the Electoral College wins the Presidency.  The national popular vote is irrelevant.  Those of us who stayed awake in civics class knew that in 2000, too.


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Probably won’t happen but let’s talk about it anyway like we do every four years.

joekenha on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Won’t happen. Even a 269-269 split is more likely than that.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Rasmussen today…

Obama 48
Romney 48

Obama is likely in the lead tomorrow since he gained two points yesterday. Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

Could be a fun day on the polling front….

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

The purpose of Soros’ Secretaries of State Project is now abundantly clear, as if it ever wasn’t

Rixon on October 19, 2012 at 9:26 AM

how lame the polls are

when students and low life moochers stay home the real voting numbers will shine for Mitt

with pride comes the fall

audiotom on October 19, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I just see this as the latest iteration of the left’s desperately searching for a way to keep their guy in the lead despite a bunch of polls showing Romney up in the popular vote.

The only fun part to this nonsense is seeing the left suddenly race to the defense of the electoral college after twelve years of whining and moaning about it.

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Nope, wont happen. It wont be even close. If this hyped october surprise thing really is a fraud, we will see a red landslide in november.

Valkyriepundit on October 19, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Charlie Cook and other analysts are warning this week that we may see another split between the outcomes of the popular vote and the Electoral College

This long shot would be a national nightmare, but a media dream.

Why even continue to promote ignorance?

Dante on October 19, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Rasmussen today…

Obama 48
Romney 48

Obama is likely in the lead tomorrow since he gained two points yesterday. Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

Could be a fun day on the polling front….

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Neither, genius. Rasmussen has been doing the same thing for months. Half the week, Romney is up a few points. Then Obama comes back and ties and occasionally goes up a few points himself.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Obama is likely in the lead tomorrow since he gained two points yesterday. Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

Could be a fun day on the polling front….

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Going from 47% to 48% is a 1-point bump for Obama.

Oh, and the fun is just starting…

New Rasmussen Virginia Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 47%

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Nah, not going to happen. If Romney wins it will be as part of a preference cascade and he’ll get 300+ EV’s.

Harpazo on October 19, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Give it a couple of news cycles, they’ll be back to burning the EC in effigy.

Among other things.

CPT. Charles on October 19, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Gumby, what does Gallup say today? Seems the lines on the graph are widening, and remember what Karl Rove said: In October, the likely voter leader above 50 on Gallup wins every time.

I think the media on November 7th are all going to have their Chick-fil-A Appreciation Day “Huh? Duh. What?!” looks on their faces again.

Marcus on October 19, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Could be a fun day on the polling front….

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Just not for you…again.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Gumby, you really don’t under stand the dynamics at play here. An incumbent below 50% with only a few weeks to go NEVER wins. Obama has NEVER been at 50% or above, he is toast.The late deciders will go to Romney by large margins especially after the debates.

Ta111 on October 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Going from 47% to 48% is a 1-point bump for Obama.

Oh, and the fun is just starting…

New Rasmussen Virginia Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 47%

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Virginia and Florida are looking like Romney locks. Obama is down to trying to hold onto O-I-H-O and the rest of the swing states.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

How many states passed the popular vote rule?..

cmsinaz on October 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Romney’s scar tissue in swing states—the damage inflicted on him by negative ads funded by the Obama campaign and Priorities USA, targeting Bain Capital, plant closings, layoffs, outsourcing, income taxes, and bank accounts in Bermuda, the Caymans, and Switzerland—is still a huge problem.

Obama spend hundreds of millions of dollars on those attack ads and they accomplished absolutely nothing. These hacks live in their own little fantasy world.

eyedoc on October 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Why even continue to promote ignorance?

Dante on October 19, 2012 at 9:29 AM

It was done especially for you. Since there are no stories about birth certificates the powers that be didn’t want you to waste away.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 9:35 AM

This long shot would be a national nightmare, but a media dream. One reporter (I can’t recall who) tweeted yesterday that journalists who aren’t pulling for that outcome need to rethink their commitment to their profession.

I think you are misreading what the reporter means. I think he means that b/c Romney is leading in the popular vote, reporters should hope for a popular vote / electoral college split – making Obama the winner.

Also, such a split also doesn’t necessarily have to end up close the way 200o’s did. It can be a clear victory in the electoral college – i.e., no state that would change the outcome w/ a smaller than say 3% difference.

Monkeytoe on October 19, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Frank Luntz predicted this on HANNITY last week IF the election were held at that time.

I’m hoping all this neck and neck stuff is “just to sell newspapers” to take a line from an old 30s movie.

Now that the kool-aid seems to be wearing off all but the hard core fanatics,idiot sticks,race baiters and welfare scam artists maybe this nation will change from going socialist in a roller coaster to going by slow boat. (Yeah, I still don’t trust Romney.) and allow conservatives in Congress to hopefully stop it from happening at all.

sanjuro on October 19, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

OMG, you’re actually stupid and desperate enough to believe that independent and undecided voters give a rat’s ass about a harmeless remark about binders.

eyedoc on October 19, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Nope, wont happen. It wont be even close. If this hyped october surprise thing really is a fraud, we will see a red landslide in november.

Valkyriepundit on October 19, 2012 at 9:28 AM

We all got Rick Rolllled!! http://octsurprise.com/

RonnyTucker on October 19, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Here’s a nightmare for you. Romney clearly wins the popular vote. (No hanging chads), say 52-54% but loses the electoral vote.

evilned on October 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Nope, not according to Rasmussen

As a result, roughly one-third of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Election 2012 Rasmussen Virginia: Romney-50 Obama-47; (10/18; 750 LV)

it’s real close to be over

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 9:39 AM

It doesn’t matter if the winner of the popular votes loses the electoral college contest. This is because the system is already in place: we choose the president based on the electoral college contest.

For proportional representation, we have the House of Representatives.

Dextrous on October 19, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Are these polls including all the dead people Obutthead’s minions are courting? Because that is the only way he stands a chance of winning this election.

NOMOBO on October 19, 2012 at 9:39 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Hey, ya know that NBC/Marist early voting poll you were stroking yesterday? Guess what?

They counted requesting an absentee ballot as voting.

Flora Duh on October 19, 2012 at 9:39 AM

If these national tracking polls are right, I do think it’s very possible we see a split. But, who knows if they are accurate. Ras, for whatever reason, continues to use a D +5 sample, even though his own numbers show greater GOP enthusiasm.

changer1701 on October 19, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Here’s a nightmare for you. Romney clearly wins the popular vote. (No hanging chads), say 52-54% but loses the electoral vote.

evilned on October 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Mine is he barely wins and they shove it over to the Supreme Court where John Roberts call a victory in their favor because…oh no… the entire election process is merely a form of taxation…gasp!

Don L on October 19, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Obama is likely in the lead tomorrow since he gained two points yesterday. Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

Could be a fun day on the polling front….

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Not optimal..

Electrongod on October 19, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Weak minded gumby poked does not even understand an one point or so movements here and there are just statistical variations within the MOE, and here he is to try to pimp polls. Stick with something you know, the poles that you have up your back side.

bayview on October 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

The purpose of Soros’ Secretaries of State Project is now abundantly clear, as if it ever wasn’t

Rixon on October 19, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Anyone who’s not aware of Soros’ m.o. needs to learn how he manipulates the perception of elections to trigger protests & riots and collapse a country’s political structure — all in service to his ultimate goal of an “Open Society,” his Utopian pipe-dream of a totalitarian oligarchy ruling the globe.

The next couple of years will tell whether he’s really an expert at it (by engineering the collapse of the US, Iran, and EU) or if he can only get the job done in minor nations with fractured, turbulent histories (Georgia, Kenya, Ukraine).

Harpazo on October 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Not optimal..

Electrongod on October 19, 2012 at 9:42 AM

A spank with a spiked paddle.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Romney’s scar tissue in swing states—the damage inflicted on him by negative ads funded by the Obama campaign and Priorities USA, targeting Bain Capital, plant closings, layoffs, outsourcing, income taxes, and bank accounts in Bermuda, the Caymans, and Switzerland—is still a huge problem.

Obama spend hundreds of millions of dollars on those attack ads and they accomplished absolutely nothing. These hacks live in their own little fantasy world.

eyedoc on October 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

No, they are simply repeating as many of those lines as possible in one sentence to see if they will stick with anyone who happens to read since they didn’t work before. Again the media simply carrying the water for Obama.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

why do you think Romney was so welcomed at that dinner lastnight. All the media know he’s going to win and they want access and one on one interviews. Obama is even old news to them

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 9:44 AM

If these national tracking polls are right, I do think it’s very possible we see a split. But, who knows if they are accurate. Ras, for whatever reason, continues to use a D +5 sample, even though his own numbers show greater GOP enthusiasm.

changer1701 on October 19, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Why would he use a D+5 sample? He himself said in an interview a couple weeks ago that he expected turnout to be between D+2 and D+4.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Should I get a ‘Not My President’ t-shirt with O’s face on it ready just in case?

J.H. on October 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

The best thing that could come from a Romney loss, is that Romney wins the popular vote by a wide margin and loses the electoral college, and the Left shuts up about abolishing the electoral college for a quarter of a century or so…

Glenn Jericho on October 19, 2012 at 9:46 AM

If Obama manages to win enough battleground states to win the EC, he’s going to win the popular vote, too — or perhaps Cook thinks that Romney’s going to get massive margins of victory in California, New York, and Illinois.

I’ve said since last Spring this was the most likely outcome.

It’s simply because you’re going to a crimson tide of voters, in every state, and enough pool blue to put Obama over.

So the deep red we’re going to see in Jersey, Cali, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, assures Romney is going to win the popular. That’s been a done deal for about a month.

And this is also why Obama is so depressed. He knows he’ll have even less of a mandate than he did after 2010, so he’s not going to be able to pull a W-Style “I’m going to spend my capital” move for his first two years.

The other problem, is the red tide will most likely bring the Senate to Republicans.

If that happens, Barry is screwed and really will show he doesn’t want the job…

…because Ryan would be the defacto leader of the party, and his co-president.

W didn’t have that problem in 2K. He had Congress.

So, the race-baiters will get their Obama pt 2, but he’ll have to follow Republican/Tea Party policy.

At that point, we’ll see if he really is a political animal as his media leeches claim, or as most of us think, a ideological prog.

budfox on October 19, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Besides, the law is clear. Whoever win the Electoral College wins the Presidency. The national popular vote is irrelevant. Those of us who stayed awake in civics class knew that in 2000, too.

This!!

The best analogy is the 1960 World Series. The series went 7 games and the Yankess outscored the Pirates over the course of the series 55-27. But the Pirates won 4 games to the Yankess 3. They didn’t crown the Yankess world champs.

Bitter Clinger on October 19, 2012 at 9:47 AM

J.H. on October 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Sure, you can hang it beside your Yankees 2012 World Series Champions T-shirt.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Thats why Im urging everyone to get out and vote even though I live in a very red state. Mitt needs to win decisively so we dont go through months of back and forth with potentially volitile consequences. He needs a clear victor in both popular and electoral college. I think he gets both but anything can happen. For my own personal satisfaction Id also like to se MSNBC crying on air when the country rejected Mr Clean and Articulate

ldbgcoleman on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

it’s not even going to come to this

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Here’s a nightmare for you. Romney clearly wins the popular vote. (No hanging chads), say 52-54% but loses the electoral vote.

evilned on October 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Not practically possible…you win well over 50% you win….Gore had 50.1% or some such…the last time was about the same….

The rule of thumb is if you can just scrape over 50% an popular vote/EC vote split is possible, BUT if you win 52% or greater you also carry enough states that you win in the EC, too.

So let’s how this is playing..one month ago Kunta and Boy Bib and Gumby were telling us, “Romney’s DOOOOOOMED, look at the poll numbers.” And now, they are reduced to discussing Romney winning the popular vote, but them carrying the EV….

I’d say what you smell is the Flop Sweat of Desperation….soon their tears of unfathomable sadness shall be tasted.

JFKY on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Obama, worse than Carter.

Hopenchange has failed.

SparkPlug on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Nevermind the last debate. Last night’s contrast between Mitt Romney and the rat-eared wonder will have reached even the most low of the low-information voters. Romney showed personality, humility, and a sense of humor. Obama talked about himself.
Game over.

It may not be quantifiable but my prediction is that the polls will continue to swing away from Obama and his merry band of socialist thugs.

Happy Nomad on October 19, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Rasmussen Sept party I’d is R +3 but he keeps using D +5 samples

jp on October 19, 2012 at 9:50 AM

For my own personal satisfaction Id also like to se MSNBC crying on air when the country rejected Mr Clean and Articulate

ldbgcoleman on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

My personal satisfaction would be a repeat of 1980 where the East Coast was so decisive there was no question of the outcome by early in the evening. And I fully intend to be watching MSNBC when the election is called for the fun of watching dejected liberals.

Happy Nomad on October 19, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Rasmussen Sept party I’d is R +3 but he keeps using D +5 samples

jp on October 19, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Its a conspiracy by all the polling outfits to keep cousin pookie on the couch and make the exploding lib heads on 11-7 all the more entertaining.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 9:52 AM

why do you think Romney was so welcomed at that dinner lastnight. All the media know he’s going to win and they want access and one on one interviews. Obama is even old news to them

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Last night wasn’t the correspondents dinner.

The few media peeps you saw were invited guests of power players. Ailes took Bartiromo. I don’t who that was with Couric.

But the people on the floor were 90% high finance/Wall St.

Which is why they ate up Romney’s tags, and Obama knew he was in contentious waters.

budfox on October 19, 2012 at 9:52 AM

The next couple of years will tell whether he’s really an expert at it (by engineering the collapse of the US, Iran, and EU) or if he can only get the job done in minor nations with fractured, turbulent histories (Georgia, Kenya, Ukraine).

Harpazo on October 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

One of those minor nations has a top 50 economy and plenty of massive opportunities for growth, if only their government can get the f out of the way. They go to the polls before we do, with forces from Soros, Putin, and the EU all trying to pull them in varying directions for good or for ill (sadly all too often for ill). God help Vitali Klitschko in his attempt to break Ukraine from the sort of crony rule Barry seeks to institute here.

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 9:52 AM

My Preliminary Electoral Vote Prediction

nitzsche on October 19, 2012 at 9:53 AM

MSM wants “payback” for 2000. when their guy, gore, was robbed. thats all.

t8stlikchkn on October 19, 2012 at 9:54 AM

New Rasmussen Virginia Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 47%

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Maybe suffolk Polling was right?

Conservative4ev on October 19, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Rasmussen Sept party I’d is R +3 but he keeps using D +5 samples

jp on October 19, 2012 at 9:50 AM

So does that mean Romney is really up by around 8 points nationally? If so, that mirrors the Gallup results from yesterday.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:56 AM

I know lots of folks would like to know who the leader, if not the winner is right now, it’s like wanting to know what’s in that shiny package under the tree. But these polls are only slightly more sophisticated than looking into a crystal ball.

scalleywag on October 19, 2012 at 9:56 AM

We all got Rick Rolllled!! http://octsurprise.com/

RonnyTucker on October 19, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Dude. That’s epic. The guy shouldn’t have apologized. Whenever you have an opportunity to Rickroll an entire country, including the media hacks that eagerly salivate over such a possibility with their golden boy down in the polls, you take that opportunity.

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 9:56 AM

WaPo puts Obama up by 8% in Iowa and and 5% in Wisconsin, early voting favoring Obama 2 to 1.
Hard to understand this with the national polls unless they change in the last few weeks.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444868204578064972682344786.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

breffnian on October 19, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Hopenchange has failed.

SparkPlug on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

There is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow…
No wait…
I meant the other end..

HopenChange..

Electrongod on October 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Yeah – I really don’t think the popular vote will be close – I see a 52-48, 51-48 with off party noise, at the minimum. Although Obama will win those big blue states – he is going to lose a mountain of votes in them. The EC has been his only chance for the last 2 months and he has campaigned accordingly – I still think it’s moving under his feet so fast there is little he can do.

He needs a big thing to happen in his favor. ANd yes, if he eeks out a EC victory, I also think he will have a republican congress (yes including the senate) to deal with. And the dems in the senate I think still have to defend the 2008 wins. They will be forced to filibuster to stop legislation and they will pay the price with their seats if they do.

Zomcon JEM on October 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Why would he use a D+5 sample? He himself said in an interview a couple weeks ago that he expected turnout to be between D+2 and D+4.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I don’t understand that, either, unless he’s trying to split the difference between 2008 and 2010 turnout. Regardless, the takeaway is he’s being generous to D’s in his tracking.

changer1701 on October 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

For first time, Romney’s favorability rating tops Obama’s
October 19, 2012 | 8:20 am

According to multiple polls, Romney’s favorability rating has surged since the Republican National Convention and in most he equals or bests President Obama’s favorables.

And late Thursday, the Pew Research Center, the poll that has been toughest on Romney’s favorability, released results showing that Romney is ahead of Obama by a point, 50 percent to 49 percent. That is a stunning turnaround from March, when Obama’s favorable rating in Pew was about twice Romney’s, 55 percent to 29 percent.

Gallup also has Romney beating Obama on the favorability rating, 52 percent to 51 percent.

Even the liberal DailyKos/SEIU/PPP poll has Romney beating Obama on the fave rating, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Romney campaign officials attribute the change to the stories told about the candidate at the Republican convention in Tampa, and his commanding performance in the first presidential debate.

Cody1991 on October 19, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Dude. That’s epic. The guy shouldn’t have apologized. Whenever you have an opportunity to Rickroll an entire country, including the media hacks that eagerly salivate over such a possibility with their golden boy down in the polls, you take that opportunity.

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Agreed. If you can’t appreciate a good ole fashioned Rick Roll then you’re the Borg or Lawrence O’Donnell. Plain and simple.

RonnyTucker on October 19, 2012 at 10:00 AM

WaPo puts Obama up by 8% in Iowa and and 5% in Wisconsin, early voting favoring Obama 2 to 1.
Hard to understand this with the national polls unless they change in the last few weeks.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444868204578064972682344786.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

breffnian on October 19, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Marist polling has been off this whole cycle. No way Obama is spending precious time in Iowa at this point if he’s up by 8. Early voting is also tracking with 2004, when Bush won there.

changer1701 on October 19, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Not practically possible…you win well over 50% you win….Gore had 50.1% or some such…the last time was about the same….

JFKY on October 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

No, Gore did not get over 50% of the vote. Gore received 48.4%, per Wikipedia, and Bush received 47.9%.

If Romney gets over, say, 51% of the popular, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the electoral vote doesn’t fall into place as well.

JenWestin on October 19, 2012 at 10:02 AM

The 2000 insanity had nothing really to do with an EV/Pop vote split. Had Bush won Fl by 115,000 votes he’d have still lost the pop vote but he would have been POTUS elect immediately with no gnashing of teeth because as Ed said “that’s what the law says.” The law in this case being the Constitution.

xkaydet65 on October 19, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Going into the second debate, the former Massachusetts governor also led narrowly in…Virginia

Not according to Soledad O’Brien.

Mr. Bingley on October 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

‏@RasmussenPoll

Swing State Tracking: #Romney 49%, #Obama 47%…

Flora Duh on October 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

“Destined to be a close one”? Cook’s on crack. The signs are that Romney is going to win this one handily. The only time Obama is even close in the polling, when you check the internals the pollster has his thumb on the scale (outside of PPP, who I am becoming convinced is reporting false internals).

Texastoast on October 19, 2012 at 10:07 AM

WaPo puts Obama up by 8% in Iowa and and 5% in Wisconsin, early voting favoring Obama 2 to 1.
Hard to understand this with the national polls unless they change in the last few weeks.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444868204578064972682344786.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

breffnian on October 19, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I think that was already debunked yesterday. At least the Iowa one was.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Electrongod on October 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

*clink*

SparkPlug on October 19, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Obama is likely in the lead tomorrow since he gained two points yesterday. Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Neither, it was just a bump in the road.

Deanna on October 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Won’t happen. Even a 269-269 split is more likely than that.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Yes, and although it’s not likely either, a 269-269 split would be very interesting political theater.

If there’s a tie in the electoral college, the House alone votes for the President. Since the house is currently controlled by Republicans, it’s reasonably sure that Romney gets the job.

However, it’s the Senate who then votes for the Vice President, and of course the Senate is controlled by the Democrats, who would be obviously likely to elect Biden.

In other words, not that it’s gonna happen (even though it has, four times in history), it’d be very weird to see a Romney / Biden administration…

psrch on October 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM

DNC Playbook Binder, not optimal.

Hide the Decline.

SparkPlug on October 19, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Interesting news from Paul Ryan this morning. He was on Charlie Sykes’ radio show and was asked if Romney would be coming to Wisconsin since the MU poll showed a 1 pt race, and he said there were no plans for Romney to come (but he didn’t know his schedule, which is doubtful) but he would be coming.

If Romney were truly within a single point in WI, Romney would be making a campaign stop.

So for those of you who were wondering if WI was in play, the answer is no.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Now you are grasping at other people’s straws.

Good for you, they are better than the ones you bring.

cozmo on October 19, 2012 at 10:19 AM

So for those of you who were wondering if WI was in play, the answer is no.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Obama is not coming to Wisconsin either, so, using your logic, safe Romney.

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 10:20 AM

The undecideds are torn between voting for Romney and not showing up. I hope for the later since then they will not be able to vote for any of the bozos down ticket from Obama.

I am predicting negative coattails of epic proportions for Obama.

Laurence on October 19, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Oh dear…

DOW Plummets 100+ points.

Atom Bomb.

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Obama is likely in the lead tomorrow since he gained two points yesterday. Was there a debate bump or binder bump?

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Weren’t you touting the Rasmussen swing state poll just a couple of days ago. Because Romney’s up 2 there. Super Mecha Atomic Boom. It’s over. Romney wins in a landslide. Sorry. If you were wondering if Obama could win any swing states the answer is no. I was out on a street corner chugging Magnum 40s with four high ranking Democratic stragetists last night and they told me they know they have no chance.

FFS I’ve never seen a guy get his rocks off so hard from statistical noise in polling…

Gingotts on October 19, 2012 at 10:24 AM

“So for those of you who were wondering if WI was in play, the answer is no.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Obama is not coming to Wisconsin either, so, using your logic, safe Romney.

sentinelrules on October 19, 2012 at 10:20 AM”

Actually, Obama not coming is more evidence that WI isn’t in play. IA seems more in doubt.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I would have rather Ed used the a bearded algore post-election depression picture.

pain train on October 19, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Interesting news from Paul Ryan this morning. He was on Charlie Sykes’ radio show and was asked if Romney would be coming to Wisconsin since the MU poll showed a 1 pt race, and he said there were no plans for Romney to come (but he didn’t know his schedule, which is doubtful) but he would be coming.

If Romney were truly within a single point in WI, Romney would be making a campaign stop.

So for those of you who were wondering if WI was in play, the answer is no.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

With the way Wisconsin is going, why waste large amounts of capital there? Virginia and Florida are looking increasingly likely for Romney and Ohio is a dead heat. All Romney needs is Ohio and Iowa and he wins. Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would just be icing on the cake.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

If Romney were truly within a single point in WI, Romney would be making a campaign stop.

So for those of you who were wondering if WI was in play, the answer is no.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Hey, brainiac. Did it ever occur to you that Romney is busy prepping for the final debate and doesn’t have time right now for too many campaign stops? And BTW, there are other ways to go after a state’s electoral votes. Blanketing it with TV ads for starters, which the Romney campaign is considering doing now that they no longer have to spend money in NC and possibly FL.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 10:40 AM

WAIT!!! California just passed a law and Brown signed it – they joined the compact giving California’s electoral votes to the candidate that wins the national popular vote.

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2011/07/bill-to-change-how-california.html

That’s 55 electoral votes and it means that if Mitt wins the popular vote, he easily wins the electoral college and the only swing state he needs is Florida or a combination of 2 or 3 other smaller states. Of course if he wins the popular vote, he’s going to take a lot more swing states than that, but still.

moflicky on October 19, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Actually, Obama not coming is more evidence that WI isn’t in play. IA seems more in doubt.

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

gumpy analysis in wrong again (no surprise there) If “the one” has to fight for Wisconsin, then he has already lost Ohio and Iowa and therefor the election. At that point, trying to keep Pa and Mich to avoid further embarrassment is the more likely option.

Animal60 on October 19, 2012 at 10:40 AM

You know Obama is in trouble when the best NSNBC can report is a nationwide “dead heat”. When the left encounters bad news they simply lie about it.

rplat on October 19, 2012 at 10:42 AM

actually, if Mitt wins the popular vote, it’s over.

Illinois, California, Mass, New Jersey, Washington, all have joined the popular vote compact. Mitt wins in a walk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

moflicky on October 19, 2012 at 10:45 AM

actually, if Mitt wins the popular vote, it’s over.

Illinois, California, Mass, New Jersey, Washington, all have joined the popular vote compact. Mitt wins in a walk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

moflicky on October 19, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Except enough states to form a majority have not joined in.

Animal60 on October 19, 2012 at 10:47 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP daily tracking shows Obama going up 1, 48-47. Romney leads by 5 w/ indys and O underwater w/ approval at 46-50. Sample is D+4.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Probably won’t happen but let’s talk about it anyway like we do every four years.

joekenha on October 19, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I think we are talking about it because we all sense that we have a president and a democratic party base here who will look for any reason to reject the results of the election if it doesn’t go Bammie’s way.

slickwillie2001 on October 19, 2012 at 10:51 AM

actually, if Mitt wins the popular vote, it’s over.

Illinois, California, Mass, New Jersey, Washington, all have joined the popular vote compact. Mitt wins in a walk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

moflicky on October 19, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Wow, these states are stupid aren’t they? They get all worked up about the whole popular vote versus the electoral college, yet they don’t realize that they are actually hurting their preferred candidate’s chances as all of those states that have it enacted into law all usually vote Democrat.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 19, 2012 at 10:52 AM

actually, if Mitt wins the popular vote, it’s over.

Illinois, California, Mass, New Jersey, Washington, all have joined the popular vote compact. Mitt wins in a walk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

moflicky on October 19, 2012 at 10:45 AM

That compact falls apart immediately after it appears to favor the Republican candidate.

slickwillie2001 on October 19, 2012 at 10:53 AM

My first career was teaching elementary school. My 5th graders figured out one could win the popular vote and lose the EC. They also figured out the reverse: Win the EC and lose the popular vote.

People who think the National Popular Vote is an answer to problems are so wrong. Besides, the Founders designed the EC to protect us from a dictator. Too bad Civics and US History are SO ignored by the current educational establishment.

MN J on October 19, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Ah, I see now there is a trigger to make the compact effective.

Disregard. carry on.

moflicky on October 19, 2012 at 10:54 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP daily tracking shows Obama going up 1, 48-47. Romney leads by 5 w/ indys and O underwater w/ approval at 46-50. Sample is D+4.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 19, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Is that supposed to look bad for Romney? The best case scenario for the Dems on Election Day is D+2 or 3(and don’t hold your breath), and a +5 lead with indies would give Mitt the edge in a lot of swing states.

Doughboy on October 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Let’s face it, Ohio is the state to win. Ohio’s first Presidental election was in 1804 shortly after it became a state and it helped elect Thomas Jefferson. In it’s history Ohio has only been on the losing side 9 times and the winning side 43 times. Ohio hasn’t been on the losing side of a Presidental election since 1960 when it went for Nixon and Kennedy won. Before that it was 1944 when Ohio went with Dewey and Roosevelt won. But Ohio is a swing state, in the last 12 Presidental elections Ohio has gone Republican 7 times and Democrat 5 times and was on the winning side every time. This year will be no different.

Dollayo on October 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Besides, the Founders designed the EC to protect us from a dictator.

This election is to rid us of the dictator currently occupying the White House.

Right Mover on October 19, 2012 at 10:59 AM

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