Surprise! Jobless claims return to 18-month range …

posted at 9:21 am on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s funny what happens to a data series when consistency returns to its collection.  Last week’s weekly jobless claims numbers dropped dramatically to nearly a four-year low, but later it was discovered that one large state didn’t report all of its claims properly.  This week, the level returns to the same range we’ve seen since the spring of 2011:

In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average of 364,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending October 6, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending October 6 was 3,252,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,281,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,275,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,281,250.

The Associated Press confirms that California bolloxed up the works, and that the data series is back on track:

 Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months. The increase represents a rebound from the previous week’s sharp drop. Both swings were largely due to technical factors. …

Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008. This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week.

A department spokesman says the seasonally adjusted numbers “are being distorted … by an issue of timing.”

In other words, nothing really changed.  Initial jobless claims are being created at about the same relative pace as it has for at least the last 18 months; although this is the highest number we’ve seen in the last four months, it’s not statistically significant from the series to be exceptional.  This series does not provide a direct correlation to job creation, but over time this data series does have some indirect correlation to the health of job creation in the economy.  What this tells us over the long term is that the labor market is still stagnant.

Amusingly, CNBC initially had this story on its breaking-news ticker with the phrase “unexpectedly rises.”

This is perhaps the most expected rise we’ve seen in this data series, thanks to the widespread knowledge of the faulty data reporting in last week’s numbers.


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Lovely.

digitalhap on October 18, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Maybe they meant it was unexpected because even with the missing claims from California last week’s number was still adjusted up by 3,000?

These people are absolutely despicable.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 18, 2012 at 9:25 AM

More bad news for Obama. At least Michelle Obama will be happy now that she gets to leave the White House earlier rather than later. We know she can’t wait to move to Oahu.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Whoopsie. Well, fortunately for Obama, Monday’s debate is on Foreign Policy.

Oh, wait…!

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Must be truthers at work. Right Chris Mathews?

Seriously though, they are calling the drop in the 4 week average a sign of ‘modest hiring’. WTF!

reddevil on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Just a simple accident that California bollixed up the works…right as Obama’s plunge in the polls got underway?

In a sane world, the indictments would be going out, US Marshals would be locking up offices and the FBI would be Mirandizing hundreds of members of this Administration and state governments across the Nation.

Obama is not leaving the White House…not unless he and Michelle are kicking and screaming…it is his only job, you know…he is entitled to it…he’ll do anything, anything at all, anything under the sun..legal or otherwise, to keep it…can’t be goin’ back to the Southside wif no job…

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Now we know the target for Bark’s October “Look how tough I am militarily” surprise: California.

That will teach them to report data accurately in a presidential election year.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:27 AM

right after the debate, very convieniant

let’s see how many states drop out of the numbers on Nov 2 report

audiotom on October 18, 2012 at 9:28 AM

They were too quick on the number fudging thingy.
They should have run out the clock some more.
Bad coaching decision.
Gave the ball back too soon.

Jabberwock on October 18, 2012 at 9:28 AM

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Don’t cry, Bunky. Our long National Nightmare will be over with on November 6th.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Why are you posting articles from September 28?

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

So when do we get the reworked September unemployment report with the missing data figured in?

(crickets)

Mitoch55 on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

And 80% of the population will never know about it. Republicans do not need TV ads, they need to open an education TV channel! In fact, it will be cheaper and likely 100 times more effective than ads, in the long run…

Archivarix on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

I am shocked, shocked that unemployment figures from world’s 8th largest economy have unexpectedly disappeared, long enough to skew public’s perception and the polls..

runner on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Yeah, we’re all ecstatic out here that the economy is cratering and the administration is doing its level-best to obfuscate the real state of the nation. “Good Times!” as we would say, Joe Biden’s favorite three word term.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Come out, come out, wherever you are, RuPoll!!!

Just last night:

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Austan Goolsbee and others are preparing for the likelihood that the unemployment rate is going to go up. Go look it up.

By the way, don’t you just love all of that early voting? You were pushing early voting the other day. Well, if indies that could have gone either way already voted after Romney’s smashing success, then an utterly smashing unemployment number is not going to mean anything.

Tell us again how many people have already voted in Ohio.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

The reason why this was “unexpected” was the “missing 30K” from week-ending 10/6 was pushed onto week-ending 10/13. Do note that this allows for Obama’s Department of Labor and their Presstitute Organs to dutifully report a 25-30K “drop” next week when things finally return to their 365K-370K average.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

legal or otherwise, to keep it…can’t be goin’ back to the Southside wif no job…

Ha ha, that’s just like the black people talk, good one!

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Not cheering a bad economy.
Jeering how it’s reported.

Jabberwock on October 18, 2012 at 9:31 AM

ATOMIC BOMB !!
-gumby

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Why are you posting articles from September 28?

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Because you weren’t supposed to notice the date, silly!!!

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 9:31 AM

A department spokesman says the seasonally adjusted numbers “are being distorted … by an issue of timing.”

Wow, because the numbers are really high you have to qualify the report? Anyone remember a department spokesman doing this last week?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 18, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Last week’s weekly jobless claims numbers dropped dramatically to nearly a four-year low, but later it was discovered that one large state didn’t report all of its claims properly.

I was surprised Romney didn’t mention that Tuesday night.

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Whoopsie. Well, fortunately for Obama, Monday’s debate is on Foreign Policy.

Oh, wait…!

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

If I were Romney I would tie our poor economic health to our foreign policy and national security issues. How can we deal with our allies and enemies with strength when our own economy is in such precarious shape?

Mitoch55 on October 18, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I’m thinking in the next debate, Mitt pull out a BINDER with unemployment reports in them.

Sugar Land on October 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Wow, because the numbers are really high you have to qualify the report? Anyone remember a department spokesman doing this last week?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 18, 2012 at 9:31 AM

After the DOL got their 339K headline, yes. Of course, other than conservative outlets, nobody noted it.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Why so mad, Bunky? Messiah fallen?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I was surprised Romney didn’t mention that Tuesday night.

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Because Team Romney probably didn’t know the entirety of the error.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Winston Smith must be on vacation this week…

PackerBronco on October 18, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Rigged debates, rigged job numbers, and a failed attempt to rig unemployment filing numbers. All to no avail, Barry. The nation knows you lie.

Philly on October 18, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Just a simple accident that California bollixed up the works…right as Obama’s plunge in the polls got underway?

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

A convenient bollox from Barry’s brethren.

Slainte on October 18, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I wonder how the conversation between Jerry Brown and Obama went the day before the sates were supposed to report.

Obama: “Hey Jerry, I just got my butt handed to me in that debate. If you report your numbers, I’m sunk.”

Brown: “I’m Listening”

Obama: “Remember that billions you asked for to bail out your sorry state…”

Brown: “Say no more. This isn’t a secure line.”

dirtseller on October 18, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Ha ha, that’s just like the black people talk, good one!

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

“Where’s yo dollah?”

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Yeah, we’re all ecstatic out here that the economy is cratering and the administration is doing its level-best to obfuscate the real state of the nation.

Ah yes, you’re awaiting the expected V-shape rebound that neither Bernanke or Greenspan, nor anyone credible on Wall Street, believes is remotely possible after the economic damage and wealth destruction of 2008. But there’s nothing wrong with a little faith-based hope and warm dreams.

Once those capital gains rates are locked in, the estate tax is repealed, and income taxes are lowered by 20% across the board, the US will have embarked on a very unique path- certainly the opposite of Clinton’s fiscal policies. It will be interesting.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Winston Smith must be on vacation this week…

PackerBronco on October 18, 2012 at 9:34 AM

He’s setting up for next week.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Wonder which state(s) will “forget” to send their unemployment numbers in by the deadline next month?

Barry needs another positive headline.

AZCoyote on October 18, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

People are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. We are nearing an end to this long national nightmare!

Night Owl on October 18, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Ha ha, that’s just like the black people talk, good one!

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

It is? Or do only the clean and articulate black people talk that way? Let’s ask Biden.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Now we know the target for Bark’s October “Look how tough I am militarily” surprise: California.

That will teach them to report data accurately in a presidential election year.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:27 AM

He does still need those 54 electoral votes.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:27 AM

You’ve been away for a bit, did you fill the freezer?

Rio Linda Refugee on October 18, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Obama is not leaving the White House…not unless he and Michelle are kicking and screaming…it is his only job, you know…he is entitled to it…he’ll do anything, anything at all, anything under the sun..legal or otherwise, to keep it…can’t be goin’ back to the Southside wif no job…

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Personally I think Obama is looking forward to playing golf and Chooming in Hawaii real soon. No way he will go back to Chi Town.

ricnrolle on October 18, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Once those capital gains rates are locked in, the estate tax is repealed, and income taxes are lowered by 20% across the board, the US will have embarked on a very unique path- certainly the opposite of Clinton’s fiscal policies. It will be interesting.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Clinton’s fiscal policies weren’t the reason for the 90′s economy.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

The most transparently deceptive administration . . . evah!

RobertMN on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

So can we also expect an adjustment in the unemployment rate in a couple weeks?

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Clinton’s fiscal policies weren’t the reason for the 90′s economy.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Note the tone of inevitability in the comment!

Night Owl on October 18, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Republicans do not need TV ads, they need to open an education TV channel! In fact, it will be cheaper and likely 100 times more effective than ads, in the long run…

Archivarix on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 AM

This is an excellent idea. A reality show about actual reality– Economic, foreign and domestic affairs and a non-revisionist historical perspective to debunk the Liberal alternate reality. Now that would be educational.

Slainte on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Ah yes, you’re awaiting the expected V-shape rebound that neither Bernanke or Greenspan, nor anyone credible on Wall Street, believes is remotely possible after the economic damage and wealth destruction of 2008. But there’s nothing wrong with a little faith-based hope and warm dreams.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Actually I’m awaiting the political equivalent of a mailroom clerk being ousted from the CEO job at the world’s preeminent corporation, a job he was given on a day when a majority of the company shareholders seem to have collectively lost their minds.

TFGRP is in WAY over his head, you know it and I know it. The time has come for him to head into his reflective years to write endless memoirs, perhaps a few more autobiographies, and ponder what could have been if only he hadn’t been suck a feckless lightweight.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

People are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. We are nearing an end to this long national nightmare!

Night Owl on October 18, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I didn’t realize that you were such a victim! I thought the nightmare involved fighting a war in Iraq to create another theocracy and extension of Iranian power in the Middle East.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

If I were Romney I would tie our poor economic health to our foreign policy and national security issues. How can we deal with our allies and enemies with strength when our own economy is in such precarious shape?

Mitoch55 on October 18, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Our economy and national security are tied to energy and that is a big foreign policy subject.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 18, 2012 at 9:45 AM

You’ve been away for a bit, did you fill the freezer?

Rio Linda Refugee on October 18, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Took the wife to Italy. Had a great time.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I posted this on another tread, but it more appropriate here.

Can anyone in HA land explain to me how we can AVERAGE between 350,000 and 400,000 NEW, INITIAL unemployment claims each and every week. Doesn’t that mean that between 350,000 and 400,000 people recently lost their jobs? Lets do the math (I know math is hard for those liberals in the audience). Lets say an average of 375,000 NEW, INITIAL claims times 52 weeks. Thats 19,500,000 NEW, INITIAL claims in the past year. Are they telling us that 19,500,000 people lost their jobs in the past year (I know there are some duplications in there, but shouldn’t be more than a million or two). So, during the Obama term of office, there have been about 80,000,000 NEW, INITIAL unemployment claims. I know the economy is horrible, but 80,000,000? That just isn’t possible. Anyone have an explanation?

GAlpha10 on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Reminds me of that Beach Boy’s song; “California Scheming”…

Tbone McGraw on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Once those capital gains rates are locked in, the estate tax is repealed, and income taxes are lowered by 20% across the board, the US will have embarked on a very unique path- certainly the opposite of Clinton’s fiscal policies. It will be interesting.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Clinton’s fiscal policies weren’t the reason for the 90′s economy.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

You’re right that it depends on your source when answering that question. If you were ask extremists like Greenspan or Bernanke, the response would be that Clinton’s policies aimed at appeasing the bond market, played a major role in the 90′s economy. Glenn Beck and Rush would certainly have a more entertaining explanation.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:47 AM

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The only reason consumer sentiment would increase is because people are confident there will be a new president come January. It certainly wouldn’t have anything to do with how the big Oaf runs things.

scalleywag on October 18, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I’m surprised we get anything remotely accurate from this government regarding jobs.

WisCon on October 18, 2012 at 9:51 AM

California wouldn’t try to get Obama elected, would they?

Their misreporting of jobless claims only happens every four years of so.

Stepan on October 18, 2012 at 9:51 AM

So what are we at percentage-wise? I can’t find a single article giving me a number (math’s not my strong point, either).

eforhan on October 18, 2012 at 9:51 AM

TFGRP is in WAY over his head, you know it and I know it. The time has come for him to head into his reflective years to write endless memoirs, perhaps a few more autobiographies, and ponder what could have been if only he hadn’t been suck a feckless lightweight.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

What could have been? Most economists,including Bernanke, would tell you that it could have been a repeat of the Great Depression. But I can’t even begin to imagine how you arrive at such fairy-tale based observations. Fortunately, Romney wasn’t around to let the auto industry fail. Bush’s economic team and Obama knew that a heavy blow to the economy at the bottom might have led to an irreversible downdraft.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

I thought the nightmare involved fighting a war in Iraq to create another theocracy and extension of Iranian power in the Middle East.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Ambassador Stevens, Sean Smith, Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty unavailable for comment.

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Ah yes, you’re awaiting the expected V-shape rebound that neither Bernanke or Greenspan, nor anyone credible on Wall Street, believes is remotely possible after the economic damage and wealth destruction of 2008. But there’s nothing wrong with a little faith-based hope and warm dreams.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Just a few of the people, who predicted a V-shaped recovery in 2009:

Dan Greenhaus of Miller Tabak
Tim Bond at Barclays Capital
Larry Kudlow
James Paulsen of Wells Capital Management
Justin Lahart, Wall Street Journal
James Glassman at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Former Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer
Stephen Stanley at RBS Securities Inc.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Can anyone in HA land explain to me how we can AVERAGE between 350,000 and 400,000 NEW, INITIAL unemployment claims each and every week. Doesn’t that mean that between 350,000 and 400,000 people recently lost their jobs? Lets do the math (I know math is hard for those liberals in the audience). Lets say an average of 375,000 NEW, INITIAL claims times 52 weeks. Thats 19,500,000 NEW, INITIAL claims in the past year. Are they telling us that 19,500,000 people lost their jobs in the past year (I know there are some duplications in there, but shouldn’t be more than a million or two). So, during the Obama term of office, there have been about 80,000,000 NEW, INITIAL unemployment claims. I know the economy is horrible, but 80,000,000? That just isn’t possible. Anyone have an explanation?

GAlpha10 on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 AM

The weekly jobless claims report only looks at one end, specifically the job-loser end, of the situation. Most of those people eventually do find jobs, as reflected in the monthly jobs report.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Took the wife to Italy. Had a great time.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 AM

We all knew that there was a gentleman under the snark and sarc. Did you get to leave the younguns home so you could act like kids yourselves?

Rio Linda Refugee on October 18, 2012 at 9:53 AM

FORWARD!

Good Lt on October 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Poor Bayam. Numbers, he’s got.

Facts and logic escape him, though.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Never fear, all the bad stuff will suddently be “expected” again after mid January. I’m guessing the first jobs report after the Swearing in will be Romney’s fault.

Bob's Kid on October 18, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Obama knew that a heavy blow to the economy at the bottom might have led to an irreversible downdraft.

He doesn’t know his assh0le from a hole in the ground.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 18, 2012 at 9:57 AM

PROOF RASMUSSEN IS USING A DEM +5 SAMPLE:

From Rasmussen today:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

Obama is getting 85% of the vote from Democrats, while Romney is supported by 87% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP challenger has a nine-point advantage.

The president leads by four among women, while Romney is up by 10 among men.

Now, one has to wonder, how Can Romney be winning the partisan vote by 2 points and the independent vote by 9 points and the gender vote by 6 points, yet only winning the poll by 2 points?

Simple, throw in a Dem +5 sample and there you go.

People assume that Rasmussen uses a Rep +4 sample simply because his won polls show that as the actual party identification in the electorate. He does not. For whatever reason, he uses a Dem +5 sample.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Poor Bayam. Numbers, he’s got.

Facts and logic escape him, though.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM

In Soviet Russia, Numbers has bayam.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Ambassador Stevens, Sean Smith, Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty unavailable for comment.

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Ah yes, let’s list all FOUR Americans who died in the Libyan attack and pretend- this just never happens!

If you want to blame Obama, blame him for the hundreds killed in action while pursuing a futile military plan in Afghanistan. It’s an insult to American soldiers that you trump one in a long series of consulate attacks as a break from normality, while not even mentioning the ongoing injuries and death faced by service men every single day.

June 14, 2002, U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Suicide bomber kills 12 and injures 51.
February 20, 2003, international diplomatic compound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Truck bomb kills 17.

February 28, 2003, U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Gunmen on motorcycles killed two consulate guards.

July 30, 2004, U.S. embassy in Taskkent, Uzbekistan
Suicide bomber kills two.

December 6, 2004, U.S. consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Militants stormed and occupied perimeter wall. Five killed, 10 wounded.

March 2, 2006, U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Suicide car bomber killed four, including a U.S. diplomate directly targeted by the assailants.

September 12, 2006, U.S. embassy in Damascus, Syria
Gunmen attacked embassy with grenades, automatic weapons, and a car bomb (though second truck bomb failed to detonate). One killed and 13 wounded.

January 12, 2007, U.S. embassy in Athens, Greece
A rocket-propelled grenade was fired at the embassy building. No one was injured.

July 9, 2008, U.S. consulate in Istanbul, Turkey
Armed men attacked consulate with pistols and shotguns. Three policemen killed.

March 18, 2008, U.S. embassy in Sana’a, Yemen
Mortar attack misses embassy, hits nearby girls’ school instead.

September 17, 2008, U.S. embassy in Sana’a, Yemen
Militants dressed as policemen attacked the embassy with RPGs, rifles, grenades and car bombs. Six Yemeni soldiers and seven civilians were killed. Sixteen more were injured.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

The good news in the Rasmussen Poll:

NO debate bounce for Obama. With one day of post debate polling in, Obama lost a point.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

3.8 trillion dollar budget:
Social Security ($725 billion), Medicare ($480 billion), federal welfare spending — which topped out at $746 billion for fiscal year 2011.

Fully one half of which is nothing but wealth transfers totally $1,951 billion dollars.

astonerii on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

If I were Romney I would tie our poor economic health to our foreign policy and national security issues. How can we deal with our allies and enemies with strength when our own economy is in such precarious shape?

Mitoch55 on October 18, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I like this idea! One of the main strategies of the Cold War was to financially break the Soviet Union. Romney could point out that a “Cold War” is being waged against the U.S. only this time it is coming from within. If we don’t get our economic health in order, we loose our security. Obama was already trying to defend the massive cuts to our military. Romney should nail little o on this point!

texgal on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Steve Eggleston ‏@steveegg
RT @JimPethokoukis: Barclays: US jobless claims distorted from beginning-of-quarter volatility; we forecast a 125k gain in October payrolls
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:01 AM

We all knew that there was a gentleman under the snark and sarc. Did you get to leave the younguns home so you could act like kids yourselves?

Rio Linda Refugee on October 18, 2012 at 9:53 AM

No kids. Rome is the funnest city I have ever visited and we walked at least half of it. The wife loved every minute of the trip and that’s what counts, but I had a great time too.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Remember, the Dem +7 advantage that is often quoted from 2008 is based upon exit polling. We know that exit polling favors Democrats – just ask President Kerry.

So, in reality, Democrats probably only lead Republicans by about 4 or 5 points in 2008. The reason Obama won is that he carried Independents by 7 points, less than Romney is winning Independents now.

I am willing to bet 2012 will look a lot more like 2004 or 2010 in actual turnout if not worse for Democrats.

Unless something dramatic happens, Romney wins this in a walk.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 10:03 AM

“People assume that Rasmussen uses a Rep +4 sample simply because his won polls show that as the actual party identification in the electorate. He does not. For whatever reason, he uses a Dem +5 sample.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 9:58 AM”

That’s true, but he varies his splits in his swing state polls.

For example, in his latest Ohio poll that shows Obama holding onto his 1 pt lead, he has an even D/R partisan split.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I am glad the Reuters editors are back on the ball by including the U word.

burt on October 18, 2012 at 10:03 AM

would tell you that it could have been a repeat of the Great Depression.

All the coulda’s shoulda’s and woulda’s in the world will not prevent this most-corrupt Administration evah from being voted out of office in just over two weeks.

There is no empirical evidence to sustain the notion that “unless” government would have intervened we would have greeted another Great Depression. That notion is as empty as Obama’s favorite “jobs saved” canard.

Yes, a lot of industries and corporations would have filed for bankruptcy…but that would not mean they’d have disappeared forever..they would have merely been reorganized, lost a lot of fat…like Obama and the unions did to General Motors, only legally, with stockholders and investors being covered, as was once required by law.

FDR’s own Treasury Secretary admitted numerous times in the late 1930′s that FDR’s interventions did nothing to help the economy, and served only to prolong the agony.

Why would Obama’s equally progressive policies be expected to do any better?

Better messaging perhaps? A more fervent leader, perhaps?

The market by now would easily have corrected itself, on its own, and we would not have over $16trillion in indebtedness we will never be able to pay off….and Bernanke is still printing money like there is no tomorrow. Our dollar is no longer a dollar…around the 15-cent mark in purchasing power from what it was a decade or so ago.

The O must go!

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 10:04 AM

This extra-sharp spike to 388,000 was caused by juggling last month’s figures so that Obama could brag about a 7.8% unemployment rate for September. Now the chickens have returned to their roosts.At the end of the month-perhaps they can make a similar “adjustment” to artificially lower unemployment for October- just in time for the election.

This is not the only juggling-now Obama surrogates are saying that Obama called the Libyan attack an “act of terrorism” the day after the disaster despite the fact that TWO WEEKS LATER Obama still said it was “too early to tell” and earlier than that both his press secretary and UN Ambassador called the the murderous attacks a “spontaneous” reaction to an anti Muslim film!!!”

The common denominator as to why these obvious deviations from both the truth and reality go unchallenged is a dishonest MSM who “see no evil, speak no evil and hear no evil” in order to protect their Messiah.

MaiDee on October 18, 2012 at 10:07 AM

RT @JimPethokoukis: Barclays: US jobless claims distorted from beginning-of-quarter volatility; we forecast a 125k gain in October payrolls
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:01 AM
Nice selective tweet quoting. Allow me to bring another one in:

@JimPethokoukis So far, we’ve got 2 predictions on payroll gains, right? 125K from Barclays and 88K from First Trust? Put me down for 85K.

News flash – neither number keeps up with working-age population growth.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Dammit, blockquote #FAIL

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 10:08 AM

What could have been? Most economists,including Bernanke, would tell you that it could have been a repeat of the Great Depression. But I can’t even begin to imagine how you arrive at such fairy-tale based observations. Fortunately, Romney wasn’t around to let the auto industry fail. Bush’s economic team and Obama knew that a heavy blow to the economy at the bottom might have led to an irreversible downdraft.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Ahaha… so you’ve abandoned all efforts to put forth arguments based on facts and figures, and have now desperately advanced to standard lefty talking points.

spinach.chin on October 18, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

How long do I need to talk before it costs less than $50 to fill up the gas tank?

gwelf on October 18, 2012 at 10:09 AM

What could have been? Most economists,including Bernanke, would tell you that it could have been a repeat of the Great Depression. But I can’t even begin to imagine how you arrive at such fairy-tale based observations. Fortunately, Romney wasn’t around to let the auto industry fail. Bush’s economic team and Obama knew that a heavy blow to the economy at the bottom might have led to an irreversible downdraft.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

“Could” being the operative term, then again who knows what “could” have been had Bark not appropriated a trillion bucks of taxpayer money to throw at everything on the liberal wish list.

I suppose we can count ourselves lucky that GM was saved by Bark even though the stock owned by the feds is now worth 39% less than when it was purchased. All we need to do is wait for the stock price to more than double and then get our money back.

We should also be thankful that Romney wasn’t around to quash any ideas about funding green energy companies such as Solyndra and Ener1 because they are providing a much needed kick to the employment numbers. How many jobs have they created again…help me out here.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 10:10 AM

If you were ask extremists like Greenspan or Bernanke, the response would be that Clinton’s policies aimed at appeasing the bond market, played a major role in the 90′s economy.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:47 AM

How about the Internet Bubble/Y2K economy? Or did you forget that the great 90′s economy burst in April 2000 (during the Clinton presidency) thanks to the DOJ on Microsoft.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy. Some other economic news:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

For 3 easy installments of $19.99 bayam will teach you the power of positive thinking in bringing down gas and food prices, lowering unemployment and making all your dreams come true (offer is void for any small business owners or other job creators).

gwelf on October 18, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy, just like we Democrats did for 8 years between 2001 and 2009. Some stale economic news from 3 weeks ago:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/u-dot-s-dot-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increases-to-78-dot-3

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Fixed.

Oh, and here’s a big fat wet F-

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 10:11 AM

The only thing that made the great depression great was the government interference. Markets naturally self correct and reliably are able to recover to precrash levels in short order when allowed to do so on their own.

astonerii on October 18, 2012 at 10:12 AM

anyone credible on Wall Street

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

No names, of course. As usual.

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 10:13 AM

There is no empirical evidence to sustain the notion that “unless” government would have intervened we would have greeted another Great Depression. That notion is as empty as Obama’s favorite “jobs saved” canard.

There was no shortage of empirical evidence, you simply don’t know any better. Try reading Too Big to Fail and fathom the outcome that bankers like Jamie Diamond anticipated as the broker dealers started to fail and the psychological edifice of the financial markets looked breakable. If not for vigorous government intervention, exchanges fundamental to US capitalism would have collapsed, and the entire banking system would have crumpled. No funds available from your bank, no cash in the local ATM. This has happened in the United States in the past, and periodically it occurs in other countries.

It was nothing like, a few bankruptcies, no big deal.

When Lehman Brothers and other important financial institutions failed in September 2008, the crisis hit a key point.[206] During a two day period in September 2008, $150 billion were withdrawn from USA money funds. The average two day outflow had been $5 billion. In effect, the money market was subject to a bank run. The money market had been a key source of credit for banks (CDs) and nonfinancial firms (commercial paper). The TED spread (see graph above), a measure of the risk of interbank lending, quadrupled shortly after the Lehman failure. This credit freeze brought the global financial system to the brink of collapse. The response of the USA Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks was immediate and dramatic.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Ah yes, let’s list all FOUR Americans who died in the Libyan attack and pretend- this just never happens!

If you want to blame Obama, blame him for the hundreds killed in action while pursuing a futile military plan in Afghanistan. It’s an insult to American soldiers that you trump one in a long series of consulate attacks as a break from normality, while not even mentioning the ongoing injuries and death faced by service men every single day.

June 14, 2002, U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Suicide bomber kills 12 and injures 51.
February 20, 2003, international diplomatic compound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Truck bomb kills 17.

February 28, 2003, U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Gunmen on motorcycles killed two consulate guards.

July 30, 2004, U.S. embassy in Taskkent, Uzbekistan
Suicide bomber kills two.

December 6, 2004, U.S. consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Militants stormed and occupied perimeter wall. Five killed, 10 wounded.

March 2, 2006, U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan
Suicide car bomber killed four, including a U.S. diplomate directly targeted by the assailants.

September 12, 2006, U.S. embassy in Damascus, Syria
Gunmen attacked embassy with grenades, automatic weapons, and a car bomb (though second truck bomb failed to detonate). One killed and 13 wounded.

January 12, 2007, U.S. embassy in Athens, Greece
A rocket-propelled grenade was fired at the embassy building. No one was injured.

July 9, 2008, U.S. consulate in Istanbul, Turkey
Armed men attacked consulate with pistols and shotguns. Three policemen killed.

March 18, 2008, U.S. embassy in Sana’a, Yemen
Mortar attack misses embassy, hits nearby girls’ school instead.

September 17, 2008, U.S. embassy in Sana’a, Yemen
Militants dressed as policemen attacked the embassy with RPGs, rifles, grenades and car bombs. Six Yemeni soldiers and seven civilians were killed. Sixteen more were injured.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Thanks for highlighting Obama’s utter incompetence.

gwelf on October 18, 2012 at 10:15 AM

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Clinton’s fiscal policies weren’t the reason for the 90′s economy.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

In reality, the economic recovery he took credit for actually began 18 months before the Democrat Media got him elected. Check out the FED stats; the recovery really began in March of 1991.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 10:15 AM

gumb – assuming that number holds up – that has been a pretty normal number, and the correction has come through on the mistake in California and they don’t magically find another 900K new jobs out of thin air we end up at 8% unemployment or stay below?

Zomcon JEM on October 18, 2012 at 10:17 AM

It was “unexpected” because they’ve got their heads so far up their asses the whores will do anything to make Barry look good for the next 3 weeks.

GarandFan on October 18, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Yes! Let’s cheer down the economy.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

No, we’re just cheering up truth (accurate reporting), justice (smackdown of all those promoting wildly inaccurate numbers) and the American way (we need conservative small-government approach to get us out of this liberal economy mess)!

dominigan on October 18, 2012 at 10:17 AM

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

What does Afghanistan have to do with jobless claims, unless you’re trying to hijack the thread?

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 10:18 AM

For 3 easy installments of $19.99 bayam will teach you the power of positive thinking in bringing down gas and food prices, lowering unemployment and making all your dreams come true (offer is void for any small business owners or other job creators).

gwelf on October 18, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Vote for Romney, and you’ll see what happens when you cut income taxes by 20% across the board, end the estate tax, and lock in historically low capital gains taxes, and then increase defense spending.
One thing hasn’t changed in this election- waving a little tax back money in the air can buy votes.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Vote for Romney, and you’ll see what happens when you cut income taxes by 20% across the board, end the estate tax, and lock in historically low capital gains taxes, and then increase defense spending.
One thing hasn’t changed in this election- waving a little tax back money in the air can buy votes.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Why are you talking down the Romney economy?

gwelf on October 18, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Vote for Romney, and you’ll see what happens when you cut income taxes by 20% across the board, end the estate tax, and lock in historically low capital gains taxes, and then increase defense spending.
One thing hasn’t changed in this election- waving a little tax back money in the air can buy votes.

bayam on October 18, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Yeah mean Romney’s tax plan that has been endorsed by 500 economists including 4 Nobel laureates?

gwelf on October 18, 2012 at 10:24 AM

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