Romney gains a point post-debate in Gallup, up 7

posted at 1:36 pm on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So much for Re-Energized Barack Obama.  Gallup’s seven-day tracking poll picked up its first post-debate day of polling — and Mitt Romney added a point to his lead among likely voters.  He’s now up 52-45.

Obama did pick up a point among registered voters, but still trails by a point, 48/47.  He also went from +4 to +6 on his job approval among all adults, now at 50/44, but that isn’t helping much among likely voters, as the rolling average shows.

When Romney took a six-point lead in yesterday’s tracking poll results, Washington Post analyst Aaron Blake cautioned to wait for polling after Tuesday’s debate to start arriving before assuming who had momentum:

The latest seven-day tracking poll of likely voters shows Romney at 51 percent and Obama at 45 percent, up from 50-46 on Tuesday and 49-47 on Monday.

Romney has steadily gained in the Gallup poll in recent weeks, turning what had been a growing deficit in September into a growing lead since his strong first debate performance. And when Gallup shifted its voter model from registered voters to likely voters last week, Romney’s numbers improved even more (among registered voters, the race is at Romney 48, Obama 46).

The new numbers, of course, don’t include much or any data collected after Tuesday night’s debate. It will take days to determine what effect that might have had.

The last two days that have dropped off the report are two of the last three that were pre-VP debate.  Only the data from the day of the debate remains in the seven-day rolling average now.  The first few days of that post-VP debate tracking put Romney up only two points, but since Monday the gap has been widening.  In other words, this doesn’t appear to be a case of a really bad day for Obama dropping out of the tracking data.

From this we can conclude that Biden didn’t help the ticket and may have hurt it with his strange, over-the-top performance.  And at least the first day of data after Tuesday’s debate suggests that Romney did better after this debate, too.  We’ll see whether that trend continues.

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201

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Mom made spaghettios.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

With hot dogs.

Just like his hero, “Poi Dog” O’bamna!

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Big Bird now voting for Romney…

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Big Bird figured he could do better on the open market than to keep sucking on the public teat.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 2:25 PM

This doesn’t include the bump that little Bammie will get from their new War on Binders!

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

“The women in binders! How much for the women in binders?”

(..sorry, I never tire of that image.)

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I heard from Rush Obama is campaigning in New Hampshire which has only 4 Electoral points

jaboba on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

He’s been here in NH a lot in the past few weeks. So has Sheriff Joe.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Romney has one of this best polling days ever and things have barely budged today on inTrade, still 64% Obama. Is it rigged?

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

If I was full-on skeptical of polls two months ago, I can’t bring myself to be much more than guardedly optimistic about them now, even with Rush assuring us that they trend more honest as the election nears. I am more enthused by the Democrats jumping on this “binder” silliness. This is a solid sign of their total dearth of substance and the depth of their desperation.

swinia sutki on October 18, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Someone always beats no one. Obama has no second term agenda and his campaign consisted of making Romney into a monster. Once people saw that Mitt was presidential material with their own eyes all the money Obama spent on his campaign was about as useful as all our money he spent on bankrupt green energy companies.

Fred 2 on October 18, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Our new national tracking poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48 in interviews conducted Monday-Wednesday: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Yes it is likely the voters turnout on Nov 6 will be
D 40, R 35 and I 24.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Does anyone know if PPP has done daily tracking polls in past presidential elections? They’ve rolled one out today showing the race tied at 48%.

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Well, they aren’t listed in the summary of polls from the last cycle that measured accuracy and consistency here, so either everyone was ignoring them back then, or they didn’t do the polling.

However, if you look at their crosstab results by party ID, to get this result they have to be projecting a D+6 turnout or better. They don’t provide the actual number interviewed by party, just the results for each candidate within that party ID, so you have to reverse engineer to get the percentages that they are weighting to.

HTL on October 18, 2012 at 2:31 PM

I wonder if Bob Schiefer has noticed the nation’s negative reaction to Candy Crowley?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 2:11 PM

I’m sure he has…but the accolades and the tongue bath he’ll get from his fellow media bootlickers and leftist (I repeat myself) if he performs in the same manner will override any desire on his part to moderate with integrity and non-bias.

HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 2:32 PM

“Governor Romney’s argument is, we’re not fixed, so fire him and put me in. It is true we’re not fixed. When President Obama looked into the eyes of that man who said in the debate, I had so much hope four years ago and I don’t now, I THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO CRY. Because he knows that it’s not fixed.”

- Bill Clinton, today
Are you kidding?

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

aww, ‘cry me a river’ in :-)…

wonder if Bubba got better or worse at the teary eyes, choked voice shtick since his early political days :-)

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:32 PM

I’m loving this but still waiting for the October Surprise concerning Romney’s tax returns or something else.

Nick_Angel on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Won’t change a vote. It’s been used and abused and built into the lead already.

BTW:Mr President, is it more moral to legitimately become rich, or to be a parasite of the responsible producers, or worse, envy the rich and seek to destroy them?

Don L on October 18, 2012 at 2:32 PM

IMO undecideds are particularly swayed to A) Simplicity and B) intangibles like body language.

Obama lost on both counts. Simple statement of how bad the economy was by Romney trumped anything Obama said or did. Body language wise Obama looked very beta and weak many times throughout the debate. The one time he went Alpha on Benghazi looked staged and rehearsed.

Dash on October 18, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Yes it is likely the voters turnout on Nov 6 will be
D 40, R 35 and I 24.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Thanks for that info. I took a second look, and did find the breakdown by party, just not where I expected to see it.

However, as you note, this wildly overstates likely D turnout in the coming election. Even in 2008 it was only 37D. Re-weighting with a more reasonable percentage of Independents, you would have to have D+6 or better to achieve the results from this poll.

HTL on October 18, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Today’s Gallup weighting was D+.7, so it doesn’t look like October’s going to be bluer than September. Apply D+1 to that D+9 WaPo Obama +3 poll and you get a similar result to Gallup’s 51/45
Now Rasmussen is at D+5, yet their Sept ID is R+2.6. Gallup locks their tracker to their party ID. Rasmussen rebalances daily on some criteria he doesn’t share. Since Sunday Ras has been D+3, D+1 and D+5. This is why Ras is much lower than Gallup.

Rasmussen was probably concerned about being the only outlier showing a competitive race in September when Obama was racking up leads in most other polls with samples skewed D+5 or more. He probably wanted to use a bluer sample weighting “just in case” Democrat turnout at the polls was higher than Republican turnout.

It’s not clear whether Rasmussen will keep the same party weighting throughout October. As it turns out, Romney’s surge started the day after the first debate (October 4), and polls weighted based on September’s party ID may be obsolete and over-sampling Democrats as compared to the turnout expected from an energized Republican base.

Most recent polls have shown Romney leading among Independent voters by 5 to 15 points, regardless of the partisan skew of the sample. Since Indies make up about 30% of the electorate, a 10% lead among them is worth 3% of the electorate. If the Republican base is energized by a good GOTV push, to limit the Dem advantage to 2% or less, Romney should win.

Of course, this has to be done on a state-by-state basis. It seems like FL and NC have turned red, but there is still work to do in OH and VA.

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 2:39 PM

wonder if Bubba got better or worse at the teary eyes, choked voice shtick since his early political days :-)

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Bubba is dying to get his grubby paws on Romney’s binder with the wymmyns’ phone numbers in it.

UltimateBob on October 18, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Romney has one of this best polling days ever and things have barely budged today on inTrade, still 64% Obama. Is it rigged?

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

If you think it’s rigged, bet on Romney at 36.2 cents, and you could make 176% profit if Romney wins.

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Romney has one of this best polling days ever and things have barely budged today on inTrade, still 64% Obama. Is it rigged?

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Does an Obama crap on America?
Does Joe Biden claim to be Catholic?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Bubba is dying to get his grubby paws on Romney’s binder with the wymmyns’ phone numbers in it.

UltimateBob on October 18, 2012 at 2:40 PM

he might be dying to, but his prostate begs to differ :)…what is he now, in his 70s?

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Of course, this has to be done on a state-by-state basis. It seems like FL and NC have turned red, but there is still work to do in OH and VA.

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Polls are not actual votes. Now is not the time to be complacent.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Extremely liberal Nashville Tennessean endorses Romney. First Republican it has endorsed since Nixon in 1972.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Romney has one of this best polling days ever and things have barely budged today on inTrade, still 64% Obama. Is it rigged?

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

It has moved… back to where it was prior to the debate.

First, the big money is still on the sidelines. I expect their market maker will be busy right around Nov 1.

Second, the money that is in there already is likely sitting, waiting for something big. It might be the third debate. It might be new Ohio or Virginia polling.

Third… and I hate to be Debbie Downer about such things… it is remarkably difficult to unseat an incumbent POTUS. He still has tricks up his sleeve, and he still has lots of money. Now is the time to get out there and do the things necessary to cement this lead. Go down to your local GOP HQ, and makes some calls for the cause…

JohnGalt23 on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM

OHIO (look at the dates and then the trend):

PPP (D+4)…..10/12 – 10/13….Obama-51……Romney-46……Obama +5

SurveyUSA (D+7)…..10/12 – 10/15……Obama-45……Romney-42…..Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports (D+5)……10/17 – 10/17…..Obama-49…..Romney-48……Obama +1

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM

“But, but, but, ummm, I uhhh, gave you, ummm hopandchange?

And 11% real unemployment, record deficits, record debt, record tax increases through gasoline tax increases, record home equity loss.

dthorny on October 18, 2012 at 2:48 PM

he might be dying to, but his prostate begs to differ :)…what is he now, in his 70s?

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:44 PM

BJ likely cannot keep himself up, and now his heart condition will not allow him to use the little blue pill, cigars are all that he got.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 2:49 PM

I’m loving this but still waiting for the October Surprise concerning Romney’s tax returns or something else.

Nick_Angel on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Romney already submitted tax returns showing that he gave 13% of his income to charity over 20 years…he’s rich but extremely generous. Sorry to inform Harry Reid, but that dog won’t hunt.

Romney may not have been everybody’s cup of Tea Party in the primaries, but he’s got the advantage of being a “squeaky clean” candidate without the baggage of a Newt Gingrich or Herman Cain. What could anyone dig up that they haven’t dug up already?

About the only “October Surprise” Obama might pull out of a hat (or his rectum) would be a sudden bellicose action against his good buddy Ahmedinejad or his Muslim “brothers” in the ‘hood in Cairo, Benghazi, or Damascus. But the longer he waits, the more voters will suspect his timing…

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Spot on humpbot

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 2:57 PM

I’m loving this but still waiting for the October Surprise concerning Romney’s tax returns or something else.

Nick_Angel on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Funny things about Mormons (faithful ones, at least). In my experience with them, they are relentlessly, severely honest, especially when it comes to public matters.

I’d be willing to bet if they examined his returns, you’d find experts who would say he foresaked deductions he could have taken, but were questionable. I’d bet on it.

If there’s an October surprise, I doubt it will be taxes.

JohnGalt23 on October 18, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Remember when Kos was the absolute darling of the Democrat Media? It was just a few years ago that the late Tim Russert would actually have him on “Meet the Press”, and about the same time Markos was claiming his Merry Men and Women were The New Majority.

So relevant then. So irrelevant now.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Markaloutis became radioactive when he came out as a 9/11 Troofer.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Nick_Angel on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

why wait til monday-or wait until 7 days before election

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 3:00 PM

But Nate Silver says Obama has a 65% chance of winning or something.

The Count on October 18, 2012 at 3:01 PM

You have to ask did BJ Clinton get excited when they said Obowma’s polls GO DOWN?

dthorny on October 18, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 2:53 PM

it showed a blurry mass. document. since i live in mass.

if it’s mass taxes beware-mass uses different criteria than us return-cannot draw federal inferences from it

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 3:02 PM

But Nate Silver says Obama has a 65% chance of winning or something.

shoot the gun. call in the dogs

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 3:03 PM

If you think it’s rigged, bet on Romney at 36.2 cents, and you could make 176% profit if Romney wins.

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 2:44 PM

You’ll need a credit card issued by someone other than an American bank…

JohnGalt23 on October 18, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Romney has one of this best polling days ever and things have barely budged today on inTrade, still 64% Obama. Is it rigged?

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Sigh. Do we have to go through this excercise every day?

Yes, it is “rigged”. It is a thinly traded foreign based gambling site. It takes only takes $15-20,000 to move either Obama or Romney’s contract 10 points in any direction based on bid/ask support levels. Easily manipulated, worthless as a predictor for the general election

My guess is Obama will “lead” there by 60+ points going into election week regardless of what actual polls are stating. ON election day the sham will be up and it settle correclt. Recall that Kerry was at 90+ on InTrade during Election Day 2004.

Norwegian on October 18, 2012 at 3:07 PM

I would not put it past him to launch drone strikes Monday morning, in order to brag about it on Monday night.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

I think so too, KJ. But I say during the weekend.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 3:08 PM

“Repeat dat fo me Candy”

Keep yapping Scooter. By election day Romney will be at 60%.

fogw on October 18, 2012 at 2:06 PM

“HERE’S YO DOLLAH FOR HELPIN’ ME OUT, CANDAH!!!”
~Barky

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Gallup to Axelrod: Bend over and spread ‘em.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Those fiery debate performances out of Biden and Obama sure were absolute disasters for Romney/Ryan, weren’t they?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 3:14 PM

The Clintons are for Romney

Schadenfreude on October 18, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Romney has moved ahead in the RCP Electoral college map: 206 to 201 with 131 toss ups. First time. Race seems to be breaking for Mitt. 19 days to go.

rubberneck on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Yeah, North Carolina went from toss-up to Leans Romney.

TarheelBen on October 18, 2012 at 3:16 PM

OHIO (look at the dates and then the trend):

PPP (D+4)…..10/12 – 10/13….Obama-51……Romney-46……Obama +5

SurveyUSA (D+7)…..10/12 – 10/15……Obama-45……Romney-42…..Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports (D+5)……10/17 – 10/17…..Obama-49…..Romney-48……Obama +1

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:47 PM

right Wing LIES!

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Where’s Gumby? I’m worried.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Awesome Awesomeness

txmomof6 on October 18, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Yahoo and AOL eerily silent. Had it been Obama at 52% with likely voters, we’d be seeing it in flashing neon colors.

Top story, 2016 filmmaker, Dinesh D’Souza, resigns from Kings College over affair controversy.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Romney has moved ahead in the RCP Electoral college map: 206 to 201 with 131 toss ups. First time. Race seems to be breaking for Mitt. 19 days to go.

rubberneck on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Yeah, North Carolina went from toss-up to Leans Romney.

TarheelBen on October 18, 2012 at 3:16 PM

NJ now just lean Barry, time for Team Barry to go spastic.
If FL, VA, OH and CO go Romney’s way, his EC number is 275.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:23 PM

“Repeat dat fo me Candy”

Keep yapping Scooter. By election day Romney will be at 60%.

fogw on October 18, 2012 at 2:06 PM

“HERE’S YO DOLLAH FOR HELPIN’ ME OUT, CANDAH!!!”
~Barky

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 3:12 PM

OMG I can’t stop laughing. LOLz!!

NJ Red on October 18, 2012 at 3:24 PM

kingsjester‏@kingsjester1

Bubba: “The Economy is not fixed.” Hil: “Neither is Bubba.”

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Yes it is likely the voters turnout on Nov 6 will be
D 40, R 35 and I 24.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 2:30 PM

I doubt it. Rasmussen party identification has it R+2.6 right now, and they have nailed the turnout for every election since 2004. I would say it will be somewhere between R+2 and D+2. 40% Democrats would be a turnout even larger than 2008, and D+5 is not realistic either. Every poll, every survey, shows Democrat enthusiasm, registrations, etc., is down this year.

TarheelBen on October 18, 2012 at 3:25 PM

The bigger Romney’s lead is nationally, the more likely Scott Brown will get into trouble in MA. The Dems will hold their noses to vote for Princess Bullsh!t because they do not want to lose control of the Senate in case of a Romney presidency.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Markaloutis became radioactive when he came out as a 9/11 Troofer.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 2:59 PM

I’d not heard about that angle. But it doesn’t surprise me.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 3:28 PM

The bigger Romney’s lead is nationally, the more likely Scott Brown will get into trouble in MA. The Dems will hold their noses to vote for Princess Bullsh!t because they do not want to lose control of the Senate in case of a Romney presidency.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Curiously we haven’t had any “polls” out of MA for that race since October 10th. Since then they have debated yet again.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 3:29 PM

The Clintons are for Romney

Schadenfreude on October 18, 2012 at 3:15 PM

You didn’t think Bubba was going to let Hillary get flattened by Barky’s bus without some measure of revenge, didja?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 3:30 PM

wait… Isn’t this the same Gallup that was rigging the numbers for Obama because they were being bullied by Axe??

Is it? What’s up now?…. The f’g with your minds or is any poll bad/corrupt until its good for mitt?

Blogging at HA is a continual learning experience …. About how to see evil even in heaven

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Those fiery debate performances out of Biden and Obama sure were absolute disasters for Romney/Ryan, weren’t they?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Wherever would we be without RuPoll to tell us how to view debate performances and interpret polling data?

Atomic dud!

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz……………

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 3:33 PM

OMG I can’t stop laughing. LOLz!!

NJ Red on October 18, 2012 at 3:24 PM

If you thought THAT was funny….. check this out.

H/T The War Planner

UltimateBob on October 18, 2012 at 3:34 PM

If I apply what I’ve learn so far, it’s really possible that they are rigging the numbers the other way to make think you don’t even need to vote… A walk in the par for Romney … No?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Lucky Pierre, when did Axe become the Attorney General and sue Gallup?

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Blogging at HA is a continual learning experience …. About how to see evil even in heaven

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Somewhat similar to you seeing even a modicum of adequacy in Barry.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:38 PM

I suspect Romney is losing with transsexual lesbian single SOCCER moms earning under $25,000.

mudskipper on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Fixed it!

ardenenoch on October 18, 2012 at 3:38 PM

right Wing LIES!

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 3:17 PM

He is looking for a poll that NO ONE HAS EVER HEARD OF to buttress his claim that Romney is toast and Obama has this thing in the bag!

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 3:38 PM

If I apply what I’ve learn so far, it’s really possible that they are rigging the numbers the other way to make think you don’t even need to vote… A walk in the par for Romney … No?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:35 PM

You drunk again?

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Your posts answer your handle’s question: NO. You stay on the Left.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

The bigger Romney’s lead is nationally, the more likely Scott Brown will get into trouble in MA. The Dems will hold their noses to vote for Princess Bullsh!t because they do not want to lose control of the Senate in case of a Romney presidency.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Brown is in big trouble. He hasn’t run a good campaign and he’s let Warren take control of the messaging. As a big Brown fan, I’m really disappointed but I’d be surprised if he wins. His decision to go full on negative was a huge mistake when Warren had the Democrat machine and media in this state on her side. His biggest advantage was his favorability ratings and those have tanked across the board. Very unfortunate.

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

And FYI, there was a new poll out yesterday: Warren +9. Ugh.

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:42 PM

The bigger Romney’s lead is nationally, the more likely Scott Brown will get into trouble in MA. The Dems will hold their noses to vote for Princess Bullsh!t because they do not want to lose control of the Senate in case of a Romney presidency.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Really? I would think that the bigger Romney’s lead is nationally, the more apathetic would be Democratic voters, and the more enthusiastic Republicans and independents would be. But then, I don’t know Massachusetts.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

NO

You can’t be in a 3-some here. If you want a ménage à trois gay sex, go to the daily kooks.

Rookie on October 18, 2012 at 3:49 PM

wait… Isn’t this the same Gallup that was rigging the numbers for Obama because they were being bullied by Axe??

Is it? What’s up now?…. The f’g with your minds or is any poll bad/corrupt until its good for mitt?

Blogging at HA is a continual learning experience …. About how to see evil even in heaven

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Thanks so much for sharing that.

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Romney takes lead in RCP Electoral College map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

idesign on October 18, 2012 at 3:50 PM

And FYI, there was a new poll out yesterday: Warren +9. Ugh.

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Who did that one? I just did a Google News search and came up empty.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 3:29 PM
RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

If Brown cannot hold on to the seat in MA. The senate breakdown will be 50R, D 48 and I 2 if Republicans win in ND, MT, NE, WI and CT, But Thompson is behind in WI and MaMahon is in a tight race in CT. If Dirty Harry remains as Majority Leader, legislations for reform will be deep-sixed in the senate.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Sorry for the complete O/T Hotgas.

Is anybody else having difficulty donating to Romney at his web site. Seems to happen 75% of time.

WryTrvllr on October 18, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Mutnodjmet on October 18, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Superb blog post. Love the Goddess facepalm banner.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 3:52 PM

If I apply what I’ve learn so far, it’s really possible that they are rigging the numbers the other way to make think you don’t even need to vote… A walk in the par for Romney … No?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Idiot, the polls don’t show Romney comfortably ahead, just ahead by a little…why wouldn’t our side go to vote, under the circumstances, really, you can’t be that stupid now, can you…

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 3:29 PM
RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

If Brown cannot hold on to the seat in MA. The senate breakdown will be 50R, D 48 and I 2 if Republicans win in ND, MT, NE, WI and CT, But Thompson is behind in WI and MaMahon is in a tight race in CT. If Dirty Harry remains as Majority Leader, legislations for reform will be deep-sixed in the senate.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Who are the two Is, and are they caucasing with he Dems?

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM

HOLY FREAKING CRAP!

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Tear down this blue wall! Susquehanna: Latest PA statewide, conducted October 11-13, shows Romney leading by 4-points in PA, 49%-45%.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM

It’s angus king and bernie sanders. Yes they would caucus with the Ds.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/121017_massachusettspollinmemo.pdf

It’s PPP, so I don’t believe it’s quite that large, but all the polls have been trending this way unfortunately. Just in terms of what I see on the ground here, it’s a lot of Warren momentum. It’s really a shame.

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

But then, I don’t know Massachusetts.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Yes, you don’t know how partisan MA Dems are. Even in 2010, MA returned all the Dem congressmen back to the house, and gave Devolve Patrick his second term as governor.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 3:57 PM

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM

It’s angus king and bernie sanders. Yes they would caucus with the Ds.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Oh, Gawd, Bernie Sanders… nuf said…

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 4:00 PM

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM

It’s angus king and bernie sanders. Yes they would caucus with the Ds.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Yes those will be the two Is in the senate.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Who are the two Is, and are they caucasing with he Dems?

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Angus King of Maine. The former is a socialist so yes, he has been caucusing with the Dems. The latter is a left-leaning independent so probably – he’s the favorite this year to replace Olympia Snowe.

The analysis is a little off though, and not quite as bad as reported. If Brown loses and we want 50 we need NE, ND, MT, and then any two of WI, MO, VA, FL, OH, CT.

Thompson is up 1 in Wisconsin according to the latest Marquette poll.
Akin is a wildcard. PVI can’t help Air Claire.
CT is another wildcard, but here PVI is working against us.
VA, FL, OH depends entirely on Romney being able to have coattails in each state.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Where’s Gumby? I’m worried.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Not to worry….He’s back to the future :) he’ll be here in a bit to share with us the polls from the day after tomorrow :)…

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Romney has one of this best polling days ever and things have barely budged today on inTrade, still 64% Obama. Is it rigged?
tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Intrade isn’t voters, it’s meaningless in the real world.

whatcat on October 18, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Yeah, looks pretty much like charlie cook’s analysis of a few weeks ago. Haven’t gone to his site recently. As for the Is, I had totally forgotten about that idiot commie, Sanders…hard to think of him as an I :)…

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 4:08 PM

If I apply what I’ve learn so far, it’s really possible that they are rigging the numbers the other way to make think you don’t even need to vote… A walk in the par for Romney … No?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 18, 2012 at 3:35 PM

You drunk again?

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Heh. That was what my Dad used to refer to as, “Asking a ‘yes’ question,” meaning that there was no other conceivable possibility.

Trochilus on October 18, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Binder protest outside of OH GOP

5 women walk in a circle for about 50 seconds then get bored.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:11 PM

This great. PPP releases a poll that shows Obama up 50-47 in CO. Here’s the kicker: they say he is +9 with independents. So Romney leads with independents in every poll nationally, and even in places like CA and MA, but not in CO? Sure…

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 4:13 PM

BOOYAH

CAC ‏@ConArtCritic

Romney up 1 pt in ARG Ohio poll http://bit.ly/Wtu5ry

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 4:01 PM

The best shot will be in WI and VA. Romney may provide the coattail to Allen. But Baldwin is up by 2 in WI, 3 of 4 polls in October have her in the lead.

Akin is a lost cause for MO.

MaMahon, despite her strong early showing, is behind by a significant margin in the more recent polls. The large democrat majority makes it hard for her to win.

Connie Mack is behind by over 6 in FL, Romney’s cannot overcome that for him. Same with Mandel,who is behind by over 5.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 4:15 PM

This great. PPP releases a poll that shows Obama up 50-47 in CO. Here’s the kicker: they say he is +9 with independents. So Romney leads with independents in every poll nationally, and even in places like CA and MA, but not in CO? Sure…

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Yeah it’s a joke. PPP has CO D+3. 2008 was R+1. Gallup has CO at R+5 as of September

Jensen’s in pillow biting mode so we’ll see another week or so of this crap from him.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:17 PM

5 women walk in a circle for about 50 seconds then get bored.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Bad link.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 4:17 PM

This great. PPP releases a poll that shows Obama up 50-47 in CO. Here’s the kicker: they say he is +9 with independents. So Romney leads with independents in every poll nationally, and even in places like CA and MA, but not in CO? Sure…

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Let’s see…. RCP average for CO is Romney by 0.7 off of 6 polls. An ARG Romney+4 poll early this month is about ready to fade from the loop, so yeah, engineer us about a 3 point Obama lead. Give him 50% and call it the 2nd debate popping the first debate’s bubble.

(B-but Tom, our polling there shows Romney up by 5! Should we bump the sample up to D+9?)

No, people are wise to that now. Just list every third Dem as an Independent…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Nevermind on ARG Ohio – that was a retweet of 10/9. My bad.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:21 PM

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