So much for Re-Energized Barack Obama. Gallup’s seven-day tracking poll picked up its first post-debate day of polling — and Mitt Romney added a point to his lead among likely voters. He’s now up 52-45.
Obama did pick up a point among registered voters, but still trails by a point, 48/47. He also went from +4 to +6 on his job approval among all adults, now at 50/44, but that isn’t helping much among likely voters, as the rolling average shows.
When Romney took a six-point lead in yesterday’s tracking poll results, Washington Post analyst Aaron Blake cautioned to wait for polling after Tuesday’s debate to start arriving before assuming who had momentum:
The latest seven-day tracking poll of likely voters shows Romney at 51 percent and Obama at 45 percent, up from 50-46 on Tuesday and 49-47 on Monday.
Romney has steadily gained in the Gallup poll in recent weeks, turning what had been a growing deficit in September into a growing lead since his strong first debate performance. And when Gallup shifted its voter model from registered voters to likely voters last week, Romney’s numbers improved even more (among registered voters, the race is at Romney 48, Obama 46).
The new numbers, of course, don’t include much or any data collected after Tuesday night’s debate. It will take days to determine what effect that might have had.
The last two days that have dropped off the report are two of the last three that were pre-VP debate. Only the data from the day of the debate remains in the seven-day rolling average now. The first few days of that post-VP debate tracking put Romney up only two points, but since Monday the gap has been widening. In other words, this doesn’t appear to be a case of a really bad day for Obama dropping out of the tracking data.
From this we can conclude that Biden didn’t help the ticket and may have hurt it with his strange, over-the-top performance. And at least the first day of data after Tuesday’s debate suggests that Romney did better after this debate, too. We’ll see whether that trend continues.