Romney gains a point post-debate in Gallup, up 7

posted at 1:36 pm on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So much for Re-Energized Barack Obama.  Gallup’s seven-day tracking poll picked up its first post-debate day of polling — and Mitt Romney added a point to his lead among likely voters.  He’s now up 52-45.

Obama did pick up a point among registered voters, but still trails by a point, 48/47.  He also went from +4 to +6 on his job approval among all adults, now at 50/44, but that isn’t helping much among likely voters, as the rolling average shows.

When Romney took a six-point lead in yesterday’s tracking poll results, Washington Post analyst Aaron Blake cautioned to wait for polling after Tuesday’s debate to start arriving before assuming who had momentum:

The latest seven-day tracking poll of likely voters shows Romney at 51 percent and Obama at 45 percent, up from 50-46 on Tuesday and 49-47 on Monday.

Romney has steadily gained in the Gallup poll in recent weeks, turning what had been a growing deficit in September into a growing lead since his strong first debate performance. And when Gallup shifted its voter model from registered voters to likely voters last week, Romney’s numbers improved even more (among registered voters, the race is at Romney 48, Obama 46).

The new numbers, of course, don’t include much or any data collected after Tuesday night’s debate. It will take days to determine what effect that might have had.

The last two days that have dropped off the report are two of the last three that were pre-VP debate.  Only the data from the day of the debate remains in the seven-day rolling average now.  The first few days of that post-VP debate tracking put Romney up only two points, but since Monday the gap has been widening.  In other words, this doesn’t appear to be a case of a really bad day for Obama dropping out of the tracking data.

From this we can conclude that Biden didn’t help the ticket and may have hurt it with his strange, over-the-top performance.  And at least the first day of data after Tuesday’s debate suggests that Romney did better after this debate, too.  We’ll see whether that trend continues.

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I wonder if Moochelle still feels like partying?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Considering it is on our dime, I expect her to turn the White House into a Frat House whether they win or lose the election.

Daemonocracy on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

I am getting more and more excited! I am in nc and helping out with my college republicans… Just an hour ago I was helping out with them. I can’t wait to see our state go red! And, I do think romney has a good chance of winning… But I still think team obama will do something DESPERATE. watch out.

Sachiko on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Keep the Mittmentum going! Don’t let up!

19 days to go, but remember…19 days ago (September 30), it looked like Obama was cruising to victory. There’s still time for O to stage a comeback, so now is not the time to slack off.

JimLennon on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

If that debate was a win for Obama, I want another one.

faraway on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Impressive! :)

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 PM

I’m returning to Reno next weekend to go door-to-door for Romney. The campaign is bussing hundreds of CA volunteers to Reno and Las Vegas each weekend. I wanted to determine how critical Nevada’s 6 votes could be.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

How sweet it would be to flip Dirty Harry’s state to red.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 PM

I posted this late last night but it’s well worth repeating. Obviously the margin is more now:

Gumby-
Here’s some interesting history, since it seems to now be my job to teach you the basics of poll-trolling:
Gallup’s party IDs vs actual since 2004:

Year Aug Sept Oct Nov Actual
2004 Even Even D+2 Even Even
2006 D+12 D+8 D+10 D+10 D+2
2008 D+10 D+10 D+11 D+11 D+7
2010 D+1 R+1 D+1 D+3 Even
2012 R+2 D+1

So overall the final party ID is always equal to or to the right of what Gallup has in the final 4 months. In the case of 2006 and 2008, it was significantly more D than reality. October should be more R given the fantastic first debate performance by Romney and the massive fundraising thereafter.

Today’s Gallup weighting was D+.7, so it doesn’t look like October’s going to be bluer than September. Apply D+1 to that D+9 WaPo Obama +3 poll and you get a similar result to Gallup’s 51/45
Now Rasmussen is at D+5, yet their Sept ID is R+2.6. Gallup locks their tracker to their party ID. Rasmussen rebalances daily on some criteria he doesn’t share. Since Sunday Ras has been D+3, D+1 and D+5. This is why Ras is much lower than Gallup.

Given Romney at 51 and up by 6 with 20 days to go, there’s no wonder why they’re reduced to defending MN.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 PM

November: National Take Out The Trash Month.

Archivarix on October 18, 2012 at 1:57 PM

It is very strange to see this continual rise in Romney numbers. Normal ebband flow should have dropped him a point today or yesterday. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t drop back a point tomorrow.

That said, this 7 percent lead is pushing into unstoppable territory. If he goes to 8, it is truly over.

MaxMBJ on October 18, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Just wait. We are gonna get a poll from Pew or Q showing a HUGE COMEBACK SURGE for Obama after the debate. I expect a Dem +14 sample or higher.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 1:57 PM

That just sounds like stupid talk from some lowly peon not in Gumby’s secret meeting in Wisconsin!

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

oh, that’s where he’s locked in now? a secret meeting in WI? :-)… hmm, silly me, and I thought he was locked up in his ward, no access to computers today, after he threw objects at his ward mates yesterday, which in trun he blamed it on the polls showing Romney up :-)….

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Don’t worry, he’ll be here any minute with some new poll he found showing Obama up by 90 in Illinois.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 1:44 PM

… from July

Lost in Jersey on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 PM

I wonder when the real panic sets in for the O campaign. It’s gotta be getting pretty close. I’m really curious to see what happens when they go full retard and start pulling every stunt possible to win this thing.

PetecminMd on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 PM

And why is Gallup still reporting “registered” voters? Does that even matter at this point? Why not go back to “adults”.

monalisa on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Because one of the candidates is a very likely voter, possibly even a registered vote, but definitely not an adult.

Archivarix on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 PM

I like this post from another thread

On RCP map they moved NJ from “Likely Obama” to “Leans Obama”.
Fire Sale!

tims472 on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

El_Terrible on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 PM

I’m returning to Reno next weekend to go door-to-door for Romney. The campaign is bussing hundreds of CA volunteers to Reno and Las Vegas each weekend. I wanted to determine how critical Nevada’s 6 votes could be.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

The husband and I returned our Absentee ballots already in NV. 2 votes for R/R.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 18, 2012 at 2:00 PM

I would not put it past him to launch drone strikes Monday morning, in order to brag about it on Monday night.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

If I where Hilary I would be in a bunker.

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

:-)

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:00 PM

OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEM:

He is losing his sense of inevitability. As soon as people start to think, “Hey, it’s ok to vote for Romney,” Obama is done.

Add to that Obama is now pulling his negative ads.

It’s over. Let’s go out and vote hard.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Early voting starts in Texas on Monday. The wife and I will probably go vote the following Saturday. And I’m gonna make damn sure every one of my relatives(well, except for my sister and brother-in-law) gets to the polls. I don’t care if this is Texas and Romney and Cruz are shoo-ins. The popular vote matters in terms of symbolism.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 2:00 PM

The only Troll we’ve seen today was gumby. Have they given up or are they getting new orders?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

This thread makes me wonder whatever happened to the ABR guy who was throwing around dime bets that Obama would win by at least 8 points.

Maybe working some overtime before he has to worry about somebody showing up at his door, pipe in hand, looking to collect?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 2:00 PM

I’m loving this but still waiting for the October Surprise concerning Romney’s tax returns or something else.

Nick_Angel on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

It’s starting to sound like it might not be tax related. They teased, saying it was mentioned in the VP and 2nd debate about a brief. Foreign Policy stuff?

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Smack.
 
Down.
 
Enjoy your postmortem.
 
Constantine on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 PM

rogerb on October 18, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Romney has this!

Anything drastic from the Obama campaign won’t pass the smell test with voters…An incumbent on the verge of losing has no credibility when it comes to things like that imo.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 2:02 PM

If that debate was a win for Obama, I want another one.

faraway on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

If that’s what Team O calls winning, they must be chooming with Charlie Sheen.

Laura in Maryland on October 18, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Impressive! :)

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 PM

Thanks, but your praise has shamed me into the truth… it was Wil Wheaton.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Looks like somebody in the 47% doesn’t want any more hope or change.

Its not just independents moving to Romney anymore. Its his own base.

Its time for melting bunny.

BobMbx on October 18, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Clint Eastwood’s bit has proved truly prophetic.

Debate 1: Obama as Empty Chair.

Debate 2: The Invisible Snarling Curser (“Go f#%* yourself)

VP Debate: Joe Biden, grin with a body behind it.

I’m trying to figure out what he said or did that will prove prophetic in Debate 4. Help me out people.

MaxMBJ on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I’m returning to Reno next weekend to go door-to-door for Romney. The campaign is bussing hundreds of CA volunteers to Reno and Las Vegas each weekend. I wanted to determine how critical Nevada’s 6 votes could be.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

I’ll be there this weekend and next weekend. We have a big caravan coming in from Utah. Perhaps I’ll see you there.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

The only Troll we’ve seen today was gumby. Have they given up or are they getting new orders?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

They’re in a strategy meeting. Brainstorming how best to wag the dog.

freedomfirst on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

from July

Lost in Jersey on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 PM

oh, no, you got that entirely wrong…they are actually from two days from now, they aren’t out yet…gumbey is a prescient little being, he goes back and forth between past and future faster than Paul Atreides/Muad’dib :-)

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Our new national tracking poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48 in interviews conducted Monday-Wednesday: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 2:05 PM

And at least the first day of data after Tuesday’s debate suggests that Romney did better after this debate, too. We’ll see whether that trend continues.

Thats the 16 trillion dollar question.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Keep talking Barry O.

Keep talking Michelle O.

DEFINITELY keep talking Joe B.


email/post notes/links pictures to friends in Oregon, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico and even California.

Let’s keep moving into the “BLUE” states.

PappyD61 on October 18, 2012 at 2:06 PM

“Repeat dat fo me Candy”

Keep yapping Scooter. By election day Romney will be at 60%.

fogw on October 18, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Looks like Team Socialism’s strategy to portray Romney as an evil, greedy, uncaring capitalist backfired big time.

It seemed to be working up until the electorate got to see the real Romney. Now it just makes Obama look a dishonest, incompetent, and petty left wing ideologue. Which is precisely what he is. Oooops.

farsighted on October 18, 2012 at 2:07 PM

The only Troll we’ve seen today was gumby. Have they given up or are they getting new orders?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

You’ve been hearing stories about how the Obama campaign is becoming desperate for cash. I imagine they’re starting to cut down on the number of people they have sitting around trying to depress the conservative vote by trolling their blogs and websites.

Some of the trolls who are “real people” will still probably drop by, but they have real jobs and can’t sit at their computer all day commenting on websites.

Doomberg on October 18, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Rove said it best…no candidate has ever lost an election for President if they are over 50% in October…never in the history of the U.S., ever…

right2bright on October 18, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Mom made spaghettios.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Must of been extra proud of her little clay man. ; )

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 2:08 PM

“We’re gon’ party hard on Nov. 7″ — Michelle Obamanette

Schadenfreude on October 18, 2012 at 2:08 PM

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Mittmentum started with the 47% video release. I still say it’s the biggest strategic political error in history for Mother Jones to release that video.

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Does anyone know if PPP has done daily tracking polls in past presidential elections? They’ve rolled one out today showing the race tied at 48%.

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

When Obama joins in on the “Get Romney” twitter brigade.

Jabberwock on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Hmmmm…PokedinmyGummy strangely absent from thread.

BigWyo on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I’m trying to figure out what he said or did that will prove prophetic in Debate 4. Help me out people.

MaxMBJ on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

“It’s time to let him go!”

MontanaMmmm on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I heard from Rush Obama is campaigning in New Hampshire which has only 4 Electoral points

jaboba on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

rogerb on October 18, 2012 at 2:01 PM

I just knew you would love her. She’s a real sweetie pie. ; )

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

During the ABC News radio break, they mentioned this poll…but they also noted the Obama’s campaign complaint about the likely voter screen. Didn’t hear them doing that when Republicans were pointing out how ridiculous D +13 samples were in other polls.

changer1701 on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

El_Terrible on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Thanks. I had thought about reposting it here, but did not want to be accused of being a spammer.

tims472 on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Here’s the TIPP gumby begs for:

Ed Carson ‏@EdCarson1

IBD/TIPP tracking poll: Obama 46%, Romney 46% – Obama +2 Wed. Unrounded O 46.2%, R 45.7%. http://ow.ly/eAaO5 Party ID: D+7

Obama’s debate bounce so far:

Ras National – Romney gains 1
Ras Swing State – Romney gains 4
Gallup – Romney gains 1 – at all time high of 52/45
TIPP – Romney gains 2. Wipes another blue poll off RCP

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Finally the people who were fooled 4 yrs ago are waking up. Better late than never.

rik on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Oh and, “Great poll kid. Now don’t get cocky.”

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

“BUT SOMEBODY TOLD ME ROMNEY HASN’T PAID ANY TAXES IN 10 YEARS!!!!!! WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU STUPID PEOPLE?????”
~Dingy Reid

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

I’ll be there this weekend and next weekend. We have a big caravan coming in from Utah. Perhaps I’ll see you there.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I’ll be easy to recognize. Just look for the guy dressed as Big Bird and holding a binder full of women.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Wonder if the more they fix the debates and pre-arrange for Barry to know the topics and town-hall questioners in advance, the more voters resent it and it has the absolute inverse effect that it’s supposed to.

Right Mover on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

I just quickly check the following and their front pages with the following results:

Puffing Ho’s: DOMA Unconstitutional – Headline

Doily Kooks: New Obama add trashing Mitt on abortion – Headline

DUmmies: Cartoon about Tag Romney – Headline

Strangely there is no mention whatsoever of POLLING!!!!!

It is over!

D-fusit on October 18, 2012 at 2:11 PM

IBD a tie now.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 2:11 PM

I wonder if Bob Schiefer has noticed the nation’s negative reaction to Candy Crowley?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Romney gains a point post-debate in Gallup, up 7

Aargh!

Make it stop!

Too much euphoric optimism!

Noooo!

Need. More. Allahpundit.

Bruno Strozek on October 18, 2012 at 2:11 PM

We’re within three weeks of the election. All the polls soon need to straighten up and fly right or they look like fools. Maybe they’ll hold out for another week to give Obama a chance to campaign more and debate on Monday to create that comeback meme. But their window for establishing their predictive credibility is closing. They can always blame unique factors for their polls thus far. But they can’t keep up the ridiculous sampling, etc. much longer.

BuckeyeSam on October 18, 2012 at 2:12 PM

The final swan song to be sung by our little clay figurine. Those polls are wrong! Have been all along. ; )

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Let’s use a little logic here.

Consider the historic vote of 2010, the biggest swing in decades, and ask if Obama’s popularity has increased or decreased since then.

Go ahead, ask yourself: Are you better off than you were two years ago? Well, do ya’, punk?

fred5678 on October 18, 2012 at 2:12 PM

New PPP tracking (Dem leaning poll) has Obama underwater on both job approval (46-50) and favorability (47-49). Romney 47-47 on favorability. D+5 sample.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Wow, this thread is only 45 minutes old and already has over 150 posts?

Let me guess…

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Obama approval with Independents 40-52 in new PPP poll.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

No worries for Obama, according to Soledad O’Brien Obama has a 15 point lead in Virginia.

midgeorgian on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Hmmmm…PokedinmyGummy strangely absent from thread.

BigWyo on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

He’s probably meeting with some VIPs in Wisconsin… discussing strategy and the like. Getting the insider information for us…

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Does anyone know if PPP has done daily tracking polls in past presidential elections? They’ve rolled one out today showing the race tied at 48%.

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I’m more interested in their sampling breakdown. IBD/TIPP has them tied as well in their daily tracker, but they use a ridiculous D+7 sample. I suspect PPP is the same.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

It’s starting to sound like it might not be tax related. They teased, saying it was mentioned in the VP and 2nd debate about a brief. Foreign Policy stuff?

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Where are the Brietbart folks??

All they talked about during the summer was they would drop a bomb on Obama this fall.

BacaDog on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

When you are dealing with Crook County political thugs no poll margin is big enough. There are plenty of corrupt big city Democratic machines in swing states.

farsighted on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

It’s starting to sound like it might not be tax related. They teased, saying it was mentioned in the VP and 2nd debate about a brief. Foreign Policy stuff?

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 2:01 PM

foreign policy stuff how, romney has not been involved in any decision making foreign policy-wise ever…that can’t be…

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

“@TWITTER_LADY_PARTS
all this shows is 52% of the US is stupid!!!”
~Eva Longoria

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

TIPP – Romney gains 2. Wipes another blue poll off RCP

There must be mass suicides happening now over on DKos. I’m almost afraid to take a look.

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Let me guess…

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Nope. Not what you think. Lol!

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

The only Troll we’ve seen today was gumby. Have they given up or are they getting new orders?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

They’re in a strategy meeting. Brainstorming how best to wag the dog.

freedomfirst on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

That would require a brain first.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

IBD/TIPP pool tied at 46%. Was O+2 yesterday. D+7 sample.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Here is a first for the election, RCP electoral avg. R +5 206-201

tbrickert on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

IBD a tie now.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 2:11 PM

And that’s with a 37,30,32 split D/R/I.

jhffmn on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Finally the people who were fooled 4 yrs ago are waking up. Better late than never.

rik on October 18, 2012 at 2:10 PM

It’s okay to make mistakes. It’s not okay to repeat them.

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Maybe it’s time to call in Davey and Goliath.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Davey puts out a fire.

fyi, the late Art Clokey created both sets of characters, and his son has continued D & G.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 PM

This doesn’t include the bump that little Bammie will get from their new War on Binders!

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Romney gains +2 in todays IBD/Tipp poll, back to being a tie. Sample is D+7, same as 2008 exit polling data.

PPP just started a tracking poll, also showing a tie, sample is D+5, which was the ACTUAL turnout for Obama in 2008. (When exit polling data is adjusted to match the actual 2008 results.)

Not putting much stock in the PPP data, since they’re a shoddy pollster, but I thought it was interesting at least.

Both polls show Romney leading Independents, IBD by near double digits, PPP by about 5.

WolvenOne on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

OH, GOOD GRIEF!

“Governor Romney’s argument is, we’re not fixed, so fire him and put me in. It is true we’re not fixed. When President Obama looked into the eyes of that man who said in the debate, I had so much hope four years ago and I don’t now, I THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO CRY. Because he knows that it’s not fixed.”

- Bill Clinton, today

Are you kidding?

“The truth is, Obama doesn’t call anyone, and he’s not close to almost anyone. IT’S STUNNING THAT HE’S IN POLITICS, BECAUSE HE REALLY DOESN’T LIKE PEOPLE. My analogy is that it’s like becoming Bill Gates without liking computers.”

- Neera Tanden, a former aide to both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, currently president and CEO of the Center for American Progress

A Romney spokesman comments: “We agree with former President Bill Clinton. The economy is NOT fixed.”

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Sachiko on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Quite envious! My state will never flip in my lifetime -_-

Gatsu on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Big Bird now voting for Romney…

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 2:16 PM

This doesn’t include the bump that little Bammie will get from their new War on Binders!

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 2:15 PM

The much-vaunted, yet-to-be-seen Staples Surge!!!

Ironically, Staples exists because of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:17 PM

When you are dealing with Crook County political thugs no poll margin is big enough. There are plenty of corrupt big city Democratic machines in swing states.

farsighted on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 PM

yep and not only Cook county…here!!

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 2:17 PM

IBD/TIPP Tracking just went from Obama +2% to Even.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 2:17 PM

PS: Just caught this, on PPP’s new tracking poll Obama’s approval rating is only 46%. Romney tied on favorable/unfavorable at 47%

WolvenOne on October 18, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I think the Romney snos need to call in sick and head to Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I want my Gumby!

Release the Kraken, d@mnit!

D-fusit on October 18, 2012 at 2:17 PM

It’s starting to sound like it might not be tax related. They teased, saying it was mentioned in the VP and 2nd debate about a brief. Foreign Policy stuff?

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Not real.

Viral campaign from Discovery for Animal Planet.

Fark and the Freepers broke out the people involved independent of each other.

budfox on October 18, 2012 at 2:18 PM

IBD/TIPP Tracking just went from Obama +2% to Even.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

strictnein

As Chuck pointed out, its a D+7 sample. So really its saying, Romney +4 (assuming D+3 turnout).

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 2:18 PM

http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_01.cfm

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 52.22 percent of the popular vote and 342 electoral votes to President Obama’s 47.31 percent and 196 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 129,170,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Sandra Fluke now voting for Romney…

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Is it too early for this?

OxyCon on October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Sept 19th:

Markos Moulitsas ‏@markos

Dear Cons, I TOLD you that sinking feeling in your gut was real.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Remember when Kos was the absolute darling of the Democrat Media? It was just a few years ago that the late Tim Russert would actually have him on “Meet the Press”, and about the same time Markos was claiming his Merry Men and Women were The New Majority.

So relevant then. So irrelevant now.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Nice lead.

But, don’t get cocky.

Moesart on October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM

You’ve been hearing stories about how the Obama campaign is becoming desperate for cash. I imagine they’re starting to cut down on the number of people they have sitting around trying to depress the conservative vote by trolling their blogs and websites.

Some of the trolls who are “real people” will still probably drop by, but they have real jobs and can’t sit at their computer all day commenting on websites.

Doomberg on October 18, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Living in Northern VA and getting lots of election love from both campaigns. Received a call from Organizing for America last night. Guy asked if I was supporting “the President”. Nope. How about Tim Kaine? Nope, in fact, I’m doing what I can to make sure Connelly doesn’t get reelected. Really, he asked? Yeah, really. No need to call this number again.

freedomfirst on October 18, 2012 at 2:20 PM

As Chuck pointed out, its a D+7 sample. So really its saying, Romney +4 (assuming D+3 turnout).

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Romney winning independents in the IBD/TIPP tracker 48 to 37 as well.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 2:21 PM

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