Romney gains a point post-debate in Gallup, up 7

posted at 1:36 pm on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So much for Re-Energized Barack Obama.  Gallup’s seven-day tracking poll picked up its first post-debate day of polling — and Mitt Romney added a point to his lead among likely voters.  He’s now up 52-45.

Obama did pick up a point among registered voters, but still trails by a point, 48/47.  He also went from +4 to +6 on his job approval among all adults, now at 50/44, but that isn’t helping much among likely voters, as the rolling average shows.

When Romney took a six-point lead in yesterday’s tracking poll results, Washington Post analyst Aaron Blake cautioned to wait for polling after Tuesday’s debate to start arriving before assuming who had momentum:

The latest seven-day tracking poll of likely voters shows Romney at 51 percent and Obama at 45 percent, up from 50-46 on Tuesday and 49-47 on Monday.

Romney has steadily gained in the Gallup poll in recent weeks, turning what had been a growing deficit in September into a growing lead since his strong first debate performance. And when Gallup shifted its voter model from registered voters to likely voters last week, Romney’s numbers improved even more (among registered voters, the race is at Romney 48, Obama 46).

The new numbers, of course, don’t include much or any data collected after Tuesday night’s debate. It will take days to determine what effect that might have had.

The last two days that have dropped off the report are two of the last three that were pre-VP debate.  Only the data from the day of the debate remains in the seven-day rolling average now.  The first few days of that post-VP debate tracking put Romney up only two points, but since Monday the gap has been widening.  In other words, this doesn’t appear to be a case of a really bad day for Obama dropping out of the tracking data.

From this we can conclude that Biden didn’t help the ticket and may have hurt it with his strange, over-the-top performance.  And at least the first day of data after Tuesday’s debate suggests that Romney did better after this debate, too.  We’ll see whether that trend continues.

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What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Fantastic news and more fantastic news from Battlground watch:

Now, given those early vote numbers in IA want some amazing news: Registration #s=622,176 Republicans; 611,284 Democrats

— Larry Schweikart (@LSchweikart) October 18, 2012

Bush was behind Kerry by 65k in 2008 and went on to win Iowa by 10k. So this is huge.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

lock
-gumbyforobama

tom daschle concerned on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Choke on it gumby.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Maybe it’s time to call in Davey and Goliath.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Even Candy Crowley couldn’t save O.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Zero should have let sleeping Cowleys lie not lie.

viking01 on October 18, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Maybe it isn’t how they act in debates…maybe it’s because people are starting to realize the truth…

Ltlgeneral64 on October 18, 2012 at 1:38 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

According to Rove yesterday, we hit it. No candidate has ever lost a lead this late like the one Romney has.

kerrhome on October 18, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Wahoooo!

MTF on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

When Obama starts running ads in D.C.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Besides Ohio, in which states will Obama spend all of his remaining resources to hold?

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Woo Hoo

Can’t wait for 55 – 40 next week. I can smell a landslide

txdoc on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Rom(p)ney.

And why is Gallup still reporting “registered” voters? Does that even matter at this point? Why not go back to “adults”.

monalisa on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Obama needs some new staff. He should put together some binders full of capitalists.

RBMN on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

It’s about the trend. Up, after the debate, in Rasmussen and Gallup. That’s very good news.

kerrhome on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

“Count it.”

- crr6 April 1, 2011

viking01 on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

If this holds up through tomorrow, Obama’s in big trouble. I don’t see him changing the momentum at the last debate since it’s foreign policy.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

BOOM-BOOM…

Rixon on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

In Gallup’s D+8 model we may well have reached it.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Michelle’s Last Four Years – Lest We Forget
Tall of her 16 vacations / $12M of our tax money blown.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGjE4_k0jI

OH Coal Miners Fight Back Against Obama TV Ad: “Absolute Lies”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?SzU3oZLV8Hw

rayra on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

I wonder if Moochelle still feels like partying?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Its just a good thing for us we have the clay figurine to keep all this straight for us. Say where is the clay figurine. Its his job after all. Slacker.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

It’s going to take every bit of it to beat the margin of fraud.

rayra on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

FNC just played the Rose Garden address from 9/12. This speech was nothing about a terrorist attack. This speech was about respecting islam. Nothing more than love for Libya.

freedomfirst on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Let’s not get cocky, folks. I hear that Gloria Alred is waiting in the wings.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Obama is cornered look out. He may try to Drone or start an all out war or bring out Gloria. They are so desperate to bring out another squirrel

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Besides Ohio, in which states will Obama spend all of his remaining resources to hold?

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

WI, MI, and PA would be the best way to go. He can’t afford to lose any of those assuming CO is trending for Romney.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Mom made spaghettios.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Maybe it isn’t how they act in debates…maybe it’s because people are starting to realize the truth…

Ltlgeneral64 on October 18, 2012 at 1:38 PM

That’s just crazy talk…

JusDreamin on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

thanks Candy! the harder the media tries, the worse it gets for them

burserker on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Even Candy Crowley couldn’t save O.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

I think Candy Crowley’s “performance” may have thrown the election to Mitt.

Rixon on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

I take a lot of issue with the way RCP does its averages. By taking an average of the averages, it places greater weight on those polls with smaller sample sizes. By actually considering the sample sizes, Romney’s advantage actually triples…

SAMPLE     R%     O%     R SAMPLE     O SAMPLE
1500             49%   47%          735                    705
2700             52%   45%          1404                 1215
931                45%   47%          419                    436
923               46%   49%          425                    452
1000             48%   49%          480                    490
1360             47%   46%          639                    626
1109             46%   45%           510                    499

TOTAL     RCP R%     RCP O%     R TOTAL     O TOTAL

8523             47.4%        46.9%           4612                4424

ABSOLUTE R%     ABSOLUTE O%

48.43%             46.46%

TRUE PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE

1.97% ROMNEY ADVANTAGE

CV_Gas on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

When Obama starts running ads in D.C.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

An early winner!!!

Zomcon JEM on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

The last two days that have dropped off the report are two of the last three that were pre-VP debate

First VP debate to ever make a difference? Starting to look that way.

forest on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Bada-Bing, Bada-BOOM!

Urban Infidel on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Romney trounced obama again in this last debate. The msn see it all slipping away. There doing there best to provide cover.

newportmike on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Atom bomb! Ka-Boom!!

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Romney has moved ahead in the RCP Electoral college map: 206 to 201 with 131 toss ups. First time. Race seems to be breaking for Mitt. 19 days to go.

rubberneck on October 18, 2012 at 1:42 PM

It appears that the VP debate did have some huge impact on the race.. which really suggests that Ryan played the scenario quite well. Bodes quite well for Budget’s influence going forward.

Illinidiva on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Besides Ohio, in which states will Obama spend all of his remaining resources to hold?

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Those mysterious 7 states that get us to 57?

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

It’s still October.

Waiting for Obozo to start a war in Libya to stay in the WH.

Hope it’s too late for that scenario to help him.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Going back to 1936 on Gallup’s website, every candidate who has lead at this point in the election has gone on to win, with the exception of 1948 and 1980, but in both of those cases the eventual loser lead with only 45% of the vote. In Carter’s case he eventually won only 41%, and in Dewey’s case he did win 45%.

vegconservative on October 18, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Its just a good thing for us we have the clay figurine to keep all this straight for us. Say where is the clay figurine. Its his job after all. Slacker.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Don’t worry, he’ll be here any minute with some new poll he found showing Obama up by 90 in Illinois.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Romney needs to move his assets out of NC and into MI, WI and PA. Force Obama to concede some states.

rubberneck on October 18, 2012 at 1:44 PM

This is eerily similar to 1980. Gallup had Reagan up only 3 on election day but he won by 9.

The Notorious G.O.P on October 18, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I think Candy Crowley’s “performance” may have thrown the election to Mitt.

Rixon on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

You may be right.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 1:44 PM

10/16/12, Obama’s last stand? Hope it plays out like that!

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Let’s not get cocky, folks. I hear that Gloria Alred is waiting in the wings.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Gonna have to be something pretty spectacular. Mitt isn’t nearly as vulnerable as Herman Cain.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

What does Nate Silver’s Secret Super Duper Equation (Patent Pending!) say though?

I suspect Romney is losing with transsexual lesbian single moms earning under $25,000.

mudskipper on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

But, but, but, BINDERS!!!

Norwegian on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Bounce Surge.

Spannerhead on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Of course RCP now has Romney ahead – 206-201.

Zomcon JEM on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

*crossing fingers *

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 1:45 PM

WI, MI, and PA would be the best way to go. He can’t afford to lose any of those assuming CO is trending for Romney.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 PM

That would bring him to 265. To reach 270, he would need to keep either Iowa or Nevada. (NH’s 4 votes would make a 269-269 tie, which the likely GOP House would break.)

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Shocker poll

Romney is only up 13 in Indiana. This is Ras, so they probably had an R+20 sample too. He’s fighting in Indiana just like McCain. It’s over. Gallup is reporting old stuff here. Oversampling gun owners and ignoring transvestive CPUSA members entirely.

Face it. Obama has won. 82% of the vote to Gary Johnson’s 20% to Romney’s -2%.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

I would not put it past him to launch drone strikes Monday morning, in order to brag about it on Monday night.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

It’s still October.

Waiting for Obozo to start a war in Libya to stay in the WH.

Hope it’s too late for that scenario to help him.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Frankly, too many in the country are war-weary for that to save him. Only a “hit” in the mainland U.S. would rouse the people.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Too early?

Rebar on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Now if this rings true, lets hope we can get the Senate and keep the house…….

angrymike on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

. . .and boom goes the dynamite.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W45DRy7M1no&feature=player_detailpage#t=149s

RedNewEnglander on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

but, but , but OIHO!!! BINDERS!!!!! BIG BIRD!!!!

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Oh Gumby!

AsianGirlInTights on October 18, 2012 at 1:47 PM

The first debate, won by Romney, reset the race.

The second debate, won by Obama, again resets the race back to his advantage.

All Romney needed was a draw, and he couldn’t even achieve that.

gumbyandpokey RuPoll on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 1:47 PM

I’m feeling really, really good about this. No amount of Big Bird, binders, and dog-on-the-roof can save this turkey.

Bye bye, Obama. I hope you don’t have to knock down a children’s hospital to build your library.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 1:47 PM

That would bring him to 265. To reach 270, he would need to keep either Iowa or Nevada. (NH’s 4 votes would make a 269-269 tie, which the likely GOP House would break.)

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

True, but I was just referring to the EV-rich states. NV and IA are also essential, but he can afford to spend less money in those since PA and MI are must-wins. He loses either of those two and nothing else matters.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Bububut….I won the debate!!

Bubububut….I killed Bin Laden!!

Bububububut….gumby said I would win!

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

In Gallup’s D+8 model we may well have reached it.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Gallup’s current model may not be so bad. I think they are adjusting their numbers to reflect party registration. Gallup right now is D+2 or 3 I think.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Waiting for Obozo to start a war in Libya to stay in the WH.

Hope it’s too late for that scenario to help him.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Oh, he’ll do something…possibly before the next debate. But, by now, he can’t wiggle without voters seeing it as an election ploy. His credibility is shot.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Heh. When gumby isn’t here, others try to be him. ROFL

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

It’s still October.

Waiting for Obozo to start a war in Libya to stay in the WH.

Hope it’s too late for that scenario to help him.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 18, 2012 at 1:43 PM

He’s going to order people killed by drone strike in Mali/Libya before Monday’s debate and he won’t care if they are the right people.

forest on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

I’m still amazed there can be so many Democrats in Iowa.

What block of states in this country is our Scotland – where 80% of the citizenry is effectively on the dole?

JEM on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I like these numbers, but I don’t think this thing is over yet…. and Rasmussen has it closer.

El_Terrible on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Since 1936, no presidential candidate that has broken the 50% mark in the Gallup poll in mid-October has lost in November.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#1

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Yeah, I don’t think it’s reversible.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Yes, yes, thank you. I was just thinking aloud.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:50 PM

With ya JP…..optimistic :)

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Toast.

Mmm, mmm, I love toast.

Wethal on October 18, 2012 at 1:50 PM

What is the point of no return? 8%, 9%, or 10?

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 1:37 PM

We see concessions on election nights with smaller margins, even with roughly half the votes counted.

Barry is already there. And I’m of the opinion he no longer gives a damn about leading the country. Being POTUS is pretty cool, ‘cept when those damn Fox News guys ask questions.

I think he wants to get beat.

BobMbx on October 18, 2012 at 1:50 PM

You.
YOU!
Can’t.
CAN’T!
Stop.
STOP!
The.
THE!
Bleeding.
BLEEDING!

Chant it!

thebrokenrattle on October 18, 2012 at 1:50 PM

OBAMA’S BIGGEST PROBLEM:

He is losing his sense of inevitability. As soon as people start to think, “Hey, it’s ok to vote for Romney,” Obama is done.

Add to that Obama is now pulling his negative ads.

It’s over. Let’s go out and vote hard.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 1:51 PM

I’m still amazed there can be so many Democrats in Iowa.

What block of states in this country is our Scotland – where 80% of the citizenry is effectively on the dole?

JEM on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

kalifornia?? :-)

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Obama drew (tried to) First Blood.

DESTROY HIM ROMBO

akaniku on October 18, 2012 at 1:51 PM

I’m returning to Reno next weekend to go door-to-door for Romney. The campaign is bussing hundreds of CA volunteers to Reno and Las Vegas each weekend. I wanted to determine how critical Nevada’s 6 votes could be.

aunursa on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

The dog is about to be wagged. Bet on it.

BadgerHawk on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Since 1936, no presidential candidate that has broken the 50% mark in the Gallup poll in mid-October has lost in November.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#1

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

That just sounds like stupid talk from some lowly peon not in Gumby’s secret meeting in Wisconsin!

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Look for Romney’s numbers to keep increasing for two reasons:

Mitt’s momentum from the Debates prove he has a plan is intelligent and not that dragon that eats kids

and

All of the Polling companies will be playing it straight (or straighter) with the D/R/I percentages. Some are in the tank for BO but not willing to risk their reputation when they get the election results so wrong (after all this is their business we are talking about)

Natebo on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

My Spidey Sense Is telling me that Obama and Assholrod will put some pressure on Eric “The Red” Holder to start more government intimidation on Gallop.

jukin3 on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

kalifornia, NE, NJ more correctly…

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Sept 19th:

Markos Moulitsas ‏@markos

Dear Cons, I TOLD you that sinking feeling in your gut was real.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Heh. When gumby isn’t here, others try to be him. ROFL

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 1:48 PM

That’s nonsense. I had lunch today with two major international politicians, a Supreme Court Justice (won’t say which one but she totally doesn’t look like a pig in a robe when…um.. she’s wearing something other than her robes), and a Star Trek The Next Generation cast member. (A good one. Not Wil Wheaton.) They all told me that I was the real gumby and the guy listed as gumby here was a Republican plant. Really, the original gumbyandpokey conceded Idaho long ago, where I’ve long mentioned the poll that shows Obama leading Romney by 2 points, if all registered Republicans and Independents simultaneously get stuck in elevators on election day.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

The only Troll we’ve seen today was gumby. Have they given up or are they getting new orders?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Just a little rebar :)

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

You’re all wrong. Romney got crushed in the debate. You don’t get it because your peanut sized brains can’t handle it.

Biden trounced Ryan. Obama trounced Romney. The progressive base is hyped beyond 2008 levels. You have no idea what’s going to hit you.

/

El_Terrible on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

yidwithlid has video of Clinton, Bill saying “Governor Romney’s argument is ‘we’re not fixed, so fire him and put me in.’ It is true, we’re not fixed” at an event today in Ohio.

NoVAHockey on October 18, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I’m still amazed there can be so many Democrats in Iowa.What block of states in this country is our Scotland – where 80% of the citizenry is effectively on the dole?

JEM on October 18, 2012 at 1:49 PM

The eastern half is pretty liberal. Lots of unions plus the University of IA in Iowa City. Tom Harkin’s stronghold. The western half is pretty conservative. Of course, they raise corn in all of it, and love those sweet $10/bushel ethanol aided corn prices.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I’m loving this but still waiting for the October Surprise concerning Romney’s tax returns or something else.

Nick_Angel on October 18, 2012 at 1:55 PM

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