Romney gains a point post-debate in Gallup, up 7

posted at 1:36 pm on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So much for Re-Energized Barack Obama.  Gallup’s seven-day tracking poll picked up its first post-debate day of polling — and Mitt Romney added a point to his lead among likely voters.  He’s now up 52-45.

Obama did pick up a point among registered voters, but still trails by a point, 48/47.  He also went from +4 to +6 on his job approval among all adults, now at 50/44, but that isn’t helping much among likely voters, as the rolling average shows.

When Romney took a six-point lead in yesterday’s tracking poll results, Washington Post analyst Aaron Blake cautioned to wait for polling after Tuesday’s debate to start arriving before assuming who had momentum:

The latest seven-day tracking poll of likely voters shows Romney at 51 percent and Obama at 45 percent, up from 50-46 on Tuesday and 49-47 on Monday.

Romney has steadily gained in the Gallup poll in recent weeks, turning what had been a growing deficit in September into a growing lead since his strong first debate performance. And when Gallup shifted its voter model from registered voters to likely voters last week, Romney’s numbers improved even more (among registered voters, the race is at Romney 48, Obama 46).

The new numbers, of course, don’t include much or any data collected after Tuesday night’s debate. It will take days to determine what effect that might have had.

The last two days that have dropped off the report are two of the last three that were pre-VP debate.  Only the data from the day of the debate remains in the seven-day rolling average now.  The first few days of that post-VP debate tracking put Romney up only two points, but since Monday the gap has been widening.  In other words, this doesn’t appear to be a case of a really bad day for Obama dropping out of the tracking data.

From this we can conclude that Biden didn’t help the ticket and may have hurt it with his strange, over-the-top performance.  And at least the first day of data after Tuesday’s debate suggests that Romney did better after this debate, too.  We’ll see whether that trend continues.

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Bad link.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Server error. It’s up again

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:24 PM

The best shot will be in WI and VA. Romney may provide the coattail to Allen. But Baldwin is up by 2 in WI, 3 of 4 polls in October have her in the lead.

Akin is a lost cause for MO.

MaMahon, despite her strong early showing, is behind by a significant margin in the more recent polls. The large democrat majority makes it hard for her to win.

Connie Mack is behind by over 6 in FL, Romney’s cannot overcome that for him. Same with Mandel,who is behind by over 5.

bayview on October 18, 2012 at 4:15 PM

When it comes to WI, I trust MLS first and the others afterward. I’d like to see some confirmation of their numbers too, or better yet, a continued trend showing this time next week, but right now I’m inclined to believe Thompson has turned the corner. He suffered in a period in which he had no ad time on his behalf exposing Baldwin for the extremist that she is. That’s over now.

Missouri hasn’t had nearly enough polling in October. She’s only hit 50% since the incident in two polls. In two others she’s 40% or below. It’s safe to say that Missourians aren’t pleased with either of their candidates, so to call it a “lost cause” for anybody is wrong-headed. It’s a tossup which somebody will have to win, ugly.

Mack is down, but Nelson can’t hold 50%. Tends to hover around 46-47%. It will take big Romney coattails for Mack, something like a 53-46 win, but that’s very possible down there.

Brown is the same thing. Stuck at about 46% except for the NBC poll which was junk. If Romney wins Ohio by a bigger than expected margin (52-47), Mandel can be pulled across the line.

We’re probably mostly agreed on VA and CT. Sadly McMahon seems to be fading late as she did in 2010.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Server error. It’s up again

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Thanks.

How pathetic.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 4:35 PM

And here is why I don’t buy any liberal poll numbers. Here in NV, Senate and House races numbers are all SAFELY in GOP favor, by a comfortable margin as reported locally (even by obviously liberal news media, there is no other kind here).

And they try to convince us that same people who seemingly support GOP at House and Senate level are somehow going to then check the box next to Hussein’s name come General? How is that possible, there is absolutely no logic in that. At all.

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 4:44 PM

YAY

Fleuries on October 18, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Don’t get cocky people!

Don’t be surprised by the National Socialist Left’s surprises.

Chip on October 18, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Where’s Gumby? I’m worried.

JPeterman on October 18, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Probably in the run up on HomeDepot, they just announced a huge sale on the “rope, soap and stool” kits.

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 4:56 PM

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 3:54 PM

It’s angus king and bernie sanders. Yes they would caucus with the Ds.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Angus is as nutty as Bernie is.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 4:58 PM

“If those numbers are correct (Gallup), it’s over.”

- Bob Beckel

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Boom.

I like it, with understated “boom.” No H-Bomb quite yet, but we have a trial run, Big Boy is being armed, and is getting ready to take flight.

anotherJoe on October 18, 2012 at 5:03 PM

What was the turnout model for this poll showing Romney +7?

Brown James on October 18, 2012 at 5:07 PM

The Tennessean, a liberal paper, endorsed Romney today

Schadenfreude on October 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Brown is in big trouble. He hasn’t run a good campaign and he’s let Warren take control of the messaging. As a big Brown fan, I’m really disappointed but I’d be surprised if he wins. His decision to go full on negative was a huge mistake when Warren had the Democrat machine and media in this state on her side. His biggest advantage was his favorability ratings and those have tanked across the board. Very unfortunate.

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:39 PM

I don’t understand why GOPers in blue states like Brown don’t seem to realize the great risk they run of going negative against Dems, especially when those Dems are already unsympathetic figures. Norm Coleman foolishly did that against Franken in MN, too, and look where that got him (and us on the right, for that matter.)

Anti-Control on October 18, 2012 at 5:19 PM

“If those numbers are correct (Gallup), it’s over.” – Bob Beckel

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I saw that (heeheeheeeeeee!) It is so much fun when someone like B. Beckel has to admit that Teh Won may not win.:))

jffree1 on October 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Romney’s response: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlwilbVYvUg#t=198s

Jim on October 18, 2012 at 5:25 PM

For those waiting for the Obozo campaign to drop the other shoe to stir things up, they’re already in the beginning stages a mere 3 days before the foreign policy debate.

Remember that Obozo told the questioner who asked about the Libya attack that he wanted to delay labeling it a terror attack just in case it was something else? The new story released this afternoon has something to do with a “snap” attack, and that the CIA was the target. Doesn’t this fit right into the scenario? The CIA has been silent all this time in not defending their intelligence, and Axelrod can plant any story he wants to with the biased media. So they’re in the process of changing the narrative to corroborate Obozo’s master thinking that he was being cautious where he placed the blame, and saving America the embarrassment. Just in time to save his sorry ass during the debate.

Watch it play out. You heard it first here….

stacman on October 18, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Shocker poll

Romney is only up 13 in Indiana. This is Ras, so they probably had an R+20 sample too. He’s fighting in Indiana just like McCain. It’s over. Gallup is reporting old stuff here. Oversampling gun owners and ignoring transvestive CPUSA members entirely.

Face it. Obama has won. 82% of the vote to Gary Johnson’s 20% to Romney’s -2%.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 1:46 PM

You’re all wrong. Romney got crushed in the debate. You don’t get it because your peanut sized brains can’t handle it.

Biden trounced Ryan. Obama trounced Romney. The progressive base is hyped beyond 2008 levels. You have no idea what’s going to hit you.

/

El_Terrible on October 18, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Jesus Christ. Everyone tryin’ to horn in on my Gumbo gig.

Lanceman on October 18, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Yes, Gallup has Romney up 7 in their poll. But as has been mentioned time-after-time, we don’t have a national election, but state-by-state elections (with the notable exceptions of DC, which isn’t a state, and Nebraska and Maine for those who want to get snarky about how they apportion their electors).

So it’s time to take yet another look at the RCP map.

First thing you should notice is that Romney, for the first time ever, leads in the electoral college looking at just the states which are solid / leaners by 5 electoral votes since RCP (correctly) moved North Carolina into Romney’s column. It now shows Romney at 206, with Obama at 201.

It also leaves us with the following as tossup states (electoral votes is in parentheses):

CO: Romney +0.2 (9 EVs)
FL: Romney +2.5 (29 EVs)
IA: Obama +2.3 (6 EVs)
MI: Obama +4.2 (16 EVs)
NV: Obama +3.0 (6 EVs)
NH: Obama +0.8 (4 EVs)
OH: Obama +2.4 (18 EVs)
PA: Obama +5.0 (20 EVs)
VA: Obama +0.8 (13 EVs)
WI: Obama +2.0 (10 EVs)

Based strictly on the RCP average, Obama wins by a 294-244 margin. However, let’s take a closer look at the state-by-state polls:

First, Iowa is slightly overweighted towards Romney due to the inclusion of one poll taken before the first debate. However, the other 3 polls since then show either a tie, a 2-point Obama lead, or a 3-point Obama lead. Thus, I think it’s safe to keep this in Obama’s column.

Second, New Hampshire only shows an Obama lead because of one poll taken before the first debate that had Obama at +6. Otherwise, this would be a Romney lead. Thus, I’d say that this actually belongs in Romney’s column.

Third, Virginia’s polling is still showing a significant split, with the 2 most-distant polls showing Obama leads, while the 3 most-recent showing Romney leads. Thus, I think this also should be considered a Romney lead.

Past that, the other states’ polls are showing pretty consistent results with one another, with the exception of Colorado which is showing some splits as to who’s leading (but I don’t think is any reason to switch it towards Obama). Switching New Hampshire and Virginia over to Romney is a switch of 17 electoral votes, which would change the RCP-average based scores to a narrower Obama win of 277-261.

Holding all else constant, Romney is falling short by either a Wisconsin or an Ohio. Change that, and Romney wins.

Stoic Patriot on October 18, 2012 at 5:29 PM

“If those numbers are correct (Gallup), it’s over.”

- Bob Beckel

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Saw Beckel and his Suspenders on O’Really last night. He was smirking about something.

I’m sure that smirk is no longer there.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I saw that (heeheeheeeeeee!) It is so much fun when someone like B. Beckel has to admit that Teh Won may not win.:))

jffree1 on October 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Did he grace the audience with an F-bomb while he was saying it, by any chance?

Anti-Control on October 18, 2012 at 5:54 PM

“But, but, but the unemployment number is 7.8%…”
BOOM! Game Over!!!!
gumby

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 6:16 PM

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/121017_massachusettspollinmemo.pdf

It’s PPP, so I don’t believe it’s quite that large, but all the polls have been trending this way unfortunately. Just in terms of what I see on the ground here, it’s a lot of Warren momentum. It’s really a shame.

RepublicanInMA on October 18, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Warren has been running very dishonest ads.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 6:17 PM

ATOMIC!!

CW on October 18, 2012 at 6:32 PM

The protest by the binders was hilarious.

My goodness, some women are lunatics.

Jvette on October 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

“We can’t lose. We ARE the 99%!!!”

- Obamabots

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Hey Everyone:

This means that it’s time to PUSH HARDER!!!

Romney/Ryan 2012

Charrrrrrrrrge!

KellyW. on October 18, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Off topic but very brief:

The gender gap narrows as Romney seems kinder
He hired MORE women, (just as a reminder)
So the LIBS jump the shark…
With a snarky remark
Hinting Mitt locked them up in a binder!

Nana on October 18, 2012 at 8:47 PM

There has been talk here about O doing something to change the election, Well how about this for a game change “http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/obama-cuts-deal-with-iran-over-nukes/” which O may be close to a deal with Iran to stop enriching Uranium. I hope this doesn’t change the race to much.

jtpcamp on October 18, 2012 at 11:57 PM

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