Romney edge expands post-debate in Rasmussen tracking poll

posted at 10:41 am on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Left seemed pretty pleased with Barack Obama’s performance in Tuesday night’s debate, cheering his renewed energy and aggressiveness.  How did it play with voters overall?  The spot polls produced mixed results, generally agreeing with most pundits that it had been a draw.  Today’s Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama falling slightly further behind as the first post-debate data gets added to the mix:

 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history. …

These updates are based upon nightly polling and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. Saturday morning will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

Interestingly, Romney’s 49% is solid with or without leaners.  Without leaners, Obama only gets to 46%. Among those “certain” to vote, Romney leads 46/44.  Republicans now have an eight-point advantage on enthusiasm, 83/75, with independents nearly as enthused as Democrats at 72%.

Party loyalty is about even between the two candidates, but Romney leads by nine points among independents, which Obama won in 2008 by eight points.  With leaners, Romney’s above the majority mark among these unaffiliated voters, 51/42. Obama has a narrow lead among millenials (49/46) and a much wider lead among thirtysomethings (56/36), but those are also the least enthusiastic age demos at 61% and 59%, respectively.  Romney has wide leads in the other age demos, which have enthusiasm numbers ranging from 84%-88%.

Also, the gender gap now favors Romney rather than Obama.  In 2008′s exit polling, Obama won women by 13 points and men by one for a +14 gender gap over John McCain and a seven-point victory overall.  In the tracking poll data, Rasmussen reports that Obama only leads among women by four and trails among men by 10 for a -6 gender gap.  That’s a flip of 19 points, combined with a 17-point flip among independents.

Those are daunting numbers for Obama.  Combine those with the enthusiasm changes since 2008, and it’s not difficult to imagine that Romney’s actual lead might be significantly wider than the +2 overall here.  At least in the first round of data, it doesn’t appear that the debate on Tuesday night did Obama any good.


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CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

I guess teams with slower running backs should get an extra down, too.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Affirmative Action!

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Part of the final Romney closing argument on Obama’s failure of leadership should be:

Obama believes that a torrent of words/speeches constitutes actions and results. Give a teleprompter-pretty speech, and his work is done; everything is all better, or soon will be.

This is the consequence of electing someone who isn’t qualified to run a Dairy Queen.

I believe this talking point from Romney will help crystallize undecideds’ dissatisfaction w Obama.

matthew8787 on October 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

I guess teams with slower running backs should get an extra down, too.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I heard about that on the way to work this morning from the local radio talk show host. Apparently CNN justified the time difference because Obama used fewer words. That may be the dumbest excuse I’ve ever heard.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Minor correction. 0 will do no better than 18 states.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I know nobody will believe it, but I’ll tell you guys anyway…

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

Romney has one guy doing all the work (too cheap to pay for more help, seriously) and he just throws ads up randomly (now we’re getting some bad debt ad focusing on China in WI).

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Gumby, an Obama supporter, confuses his fantasies and hopes with reality. It is really quite sad to read his daily comments. The guy is a walking joke. One hopes that Gumby will be able to cope and move on after Obama’s inevitable loss to Romney.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:13 AM

If I were Clokey Productions and DreamWorks, I’d send the guy a cease and desist letter demanding that he stop using the name “gumbyandpokey.” He is doing tremendous damage to the brand.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Well had the fat cow not interupted Mitt so much and had not argued with him on behalf of the rat-eared wonder….. there might have been a fairer division of time.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

For the RCP average watchers:
ABC News/WashPo has Obama +3% with… a +9% Dem sample and extremely low Republican turnout:
35% Dem – 26% Repub

That would be 4% lower than in 2008. Insane and not going to happen.

IBD/TIPP has Obama +2% (1.5% really) with… a +7% Dem Sample. 37% Dem – 30%. That’s the same turnout as in 2008. Sorry, not going to happen.

If any lib is taking solace in those two polls I feel very sorry for them. With logical weighting by party both of those polls point to a Romney win.

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 11:17 AM

If Minnesota is coming into play, then the Super Pacs will soon accelerate in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The RR and RNC operations will then move in.

Move the needle in these states, force Obama to react, and then DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

The dam is breaking, timing is good, Romney is starting to peak at exactly the right time.

matthew8787 on October 18, 2012 at 11:17 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

The voices in your head aren’t real people. Start taking your meds.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 11:17 AM

If I were Clokey Productions and DreamWorks, I’d send the guy a cease and desist letter demanding that he stop using the name “gumbyandpokey.” He is doing tremendous damage to the brand.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I would suggest the DNC and OFA might want to do the same.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I gotta be pessimistic about MI. Too many beneficiaries of the payoff to the UAW via auto industry bailout. Too strong a union influence on votes.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:10 AM

I can see that. There is a fair counter-argument though that with the decline of the auto industry, and many of the old union dinosaurs retiring/dying/being pushed out of their jobs that this isn’t as great of a force as it used to be. Might be something that shows this cycle, or maybe not until 2016 or 2020. Being able to trade in that militant feminist embarrassment Jennifer Granholm for “tough nerd” Rick Snyder is at least a favorable start.

Of course, the kicker to all this though is that Romney doesn’t need Michigan even slightly. Obama does. So if the unions pull him over the line there 51-48, it’s just 16 EVs to stay alive, onward to count the votes in WI and PA (PVI D+2) and of course OH (PVI R+1). See how the media doesn’t want us to know for certain if it is in fact close in Michigan?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:18 AM

“Just remember nobody saw the magnitude of 2010 coming. Nobody ever
expects the floor to fall out from the holy libs. Domm is always for the GOP.

rik on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM”

Actually, people did see what was coming, and the GOP actually underperformed in the Senate races.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:18 AM

The more voters see Mitt unfiltered in the debates, the more they support him. The exact opposite is true for Obama. Bring on the third debate!

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Indeed, I await Oct. 22 with great eagerness. Romney should CLEAN OBAMA’S CLOCK in that event and put the final nail in his coffin.

I predict Obozo will suffer an episode of instant karma. The stunt and ambush he tried to pull about his Sept. 12 Rose Garden speech will come back on him with a vengeance. On this issue Obozo is a fish swimming in a barrel, and it’s time for Romney and the GOP to bring out the metaphorical 12-gauge.

OneVision on October 18, 2012 at 11:18 AM

CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

I guess teams with slower running backs should get an extra down, too.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Heh.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 11:18 AM

DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

matthew8787 on October 18, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Amen! Make Mooch start searching for recipes involving ground beef instead of filet mignon!

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I can fully understand why Ace banned this thread-jacking idiot.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I know nobody will believe it, but I’ll tell you guys anyway…

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Would that be the same team that crafted the Big Bird ad?

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

The more voters see Mitt unfiltered in the debates, the more they support him. The exact opposite is true for Obama. Bring on the third debate!

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

.
If Super Mitt trounces Nov. 6…….some folks in the media will have some splainin to do……

A 12-15 point turn around since the Triumphant DNC convention…

How could they get this so wrong- ethics maybe ?

FlaMurph on October 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

125K is not a good number.

MI will get Obama over the top with the UAW, but it may cost Obama much more than he hoped. But it looks like WI is moving away. And Minnesota, while I struggle to believe it may really be in play – we heard local GOP boasting a few weeks ago and now all of a sudden we beign to see it.

As to Ohio;

Romney will win it because the underlying dynamics of the election are working there just like everywhere else – while unemployment is lower than average there, it still sucks in general. Obama trails with indies, and the gender gap. He also now trails with catholics, which is pretty good part of northern Ohio, and he is dealing with about a 450K democrat registration loss from 2008. Pollsters are still struggling with under 10% response rates and conservatives by a wide margin distrust all pollsters and are avoiding them.

Just as I noted Romney was ahead for awhile regardless of what the polling was saying a month or two ago, that same dynamic is in play in Ohio. It will move that direction slowly over the next two weeks – absent some crazy event occurring.

Zomcon JEM on October 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

IBD/TIPP has Obama +2% (1.5% really) with… a +7% Dem Sample. 37% Dem – 30%. That’s the same turnout as in 2008. Sorry, not going to happen.

If any lib is taking solace in those two polls I feel very sorry for them. With logical weighting by party both of those polls point to a Romney win.

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I was wondering on the sample for the IBD/TIPP tracker… Thank you.

Minor correction. 0 will do no better than 18 states.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

So then Romney wins the other 39? Sick!

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

I know nobody will believe it, but I’ll tell you guys anyway…

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

Romney has one guy doing all the work (too cheap to pay for more help, seriously) and he just throws ads up randomly (now we’re getting some bad debt ad focusing on China in WI).

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

You’re right about one thing. I don’t believe it.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Is Goumbygetspokedalot on suicide watch? Have his clozapine dosages been increased?

Candy Crowley graduates from the Joesph Goebbels school of Journalism.

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Move into Michigan regardless. Forcing Obama to play defense in those markets bankrupts him elsewhere.

matthew8787 on October 18, 2012 at 11:21 AM

At least in the first round of data, it doesn’t appear that the debate on Tuesday night did Obama any good.

From your keyboard to God’s eyes.

Physics Geek on October 18, 2012 at 11:21 AM

That info is available to premium members.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

How many tricks per week does your momma have to turn to pay for that?

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I know nobody will believe it, but I’ll tell you guys anyway…

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

Romney has one guy doing all the work (too cheap to pay for more help, seriously) and he just throws ads up randomly (now we’re getting some bad debt ad focusing on China in WI).

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

You obviously don’t know about the MASSIVE ad buys that the Romney team has already bought for the remaining 3 weeks.

Per WaPo, ad buys doubled and even tripled in several key states such as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia last week. noting that Romney and his allies are driving this increase. And for the first time since the summer, Obama trailed in total ad expenditures last week.

Romney and GOP groups are now flooding the airwaves in force, spending about 50 percent more on ads than Obama this week, according to tracking data. The surge comes at a fortuitous time for Romney, who is now even or ahead of Obama in many national and swing-state polls.”

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:21 AM

“Wait, what? Do you have a hot tip that Rasmussen is running polls with an even split or are you arguing that he is in fact running D+5 polls to “play it safe?””

Rasmussen’s swing state polls have their partisan splits available to premium members.

His D+5 is just being used for his national sample.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Hey everyone, let’s start believing what gumby says.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:22 AM

ethics maybe ?

FlaMurph on October 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Na… The Fifth Column Treasonous Media doesn’t have any ethics, so they couldn’t possibly have gotten in the way…

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 11:23 AM

As to the senate – having Missouri still in play just shows where this will end up. Looks like Romney will pull Mack over in FL, and may get the PA seat as well. Indiana appears to be moving into the safe zone for Mourdock, as were all the upper plains states that earlier some people thought the dems could steal one. Thompson will win in WI.

Looks like Harry gets to enjoy minority status for awhile.

Zomcon JEM on October 18, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Of course, the kicker to all this though is that Romney doesn’t need Michigan even slightly. Obama does. So if the unions pull him over the line there 51-48, it’s just 16 EVs to stay alive, onward to count the votes in WI and PA (PVI D+2) and of course OH (PVI R+1). See how the media doesn’t want us to know for certain if it is in fact close in Michigan?

If MI and WI continue to trend R, Obama will have to divert resources to these states to shore them up at a moment when OH needs every $ there.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

So is Ed gumby and Allah pokey?

He’s here 24/7. Obsessed with polls….

Either paid ObamaBot or Mother of all Eeyores..or psychopathic.

Seriously, no one could be that dumb..unless it was on purpose and is trying to drive comment count.

HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Ohio? Coal. War on coal. Obama EPA/Lisa Jackson.

runner on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Why is nobody on Fox News or the conservative blogs mentioning that Jug Ears shouted to the moderator to “Get the transcript”? How on earth would he know she had it right there in front of her? She responded so quickly (less than a second) that she had to have had it staged right in front of her. How is this possible without prior coordination between the moderator and Jug Ear’s team? IMO, this whole thing was completely staged. It was a set up to bail the preznit out of a very difficult spot that they absolutely knew ahead of time was going to come up. This entire debate was orchestrated with Jug Ear’s team to give him the advantage. It is beyond obvious. I know some other commenters have these same concerns, but why isn’t it getting any traction outside of the comments section on a few blogs? We need to push this until they have to acknowledge it. It is not a case of extremely poor moderating. It is blatant fraud.

MarkM on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Bbbbbbbbbut, didn’t Obama win by a landslide? That’s what I read in the paper and heard Brian Williams say.

bw222 on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Actually, people did see what was coming, and the GOP actually underperformed in the Senate races.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:18 AM

“According to (Dem) memo, Republican House takeover impossible.”

- Nate Silver, 29 July 2010

People like Maerose Prizzi, Chris van Hollen, Steny Hoyer, etc?

Just A Reminder Of Democrats’ “Good Times”….

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I’ve got to wonder what Obama is doing with his weekend.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Hopefully working on his plan for a theoretical next term, as Romney’s hinted he’s gonna hammer his ass on lack of specifics next debate.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

“You obviously don’t know about the MASSIVE ad buys that the Romney team has already bought for the remaining 3 weeks.”

No, I’m well aware of that, and it’s a good thing that they’re finally matching Team O ad for ad.

What I’ve heard is that the people Obama have to plan out what ads to air in what markets are much, much smarter than the one person that Romney has doing the same amount of work.

It may seem like nothing, but it could make a difference in a close race.

Also, the whole idea of Romney’s GOTV meaning “voter contacts” vs Obama’s GOTV, which means they take people to the polls for early voting will be an interesting test, as well.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

MarkM on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Tweet or email Jake Tapper.

HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

The 4-point swing in Romney’s favor from yesterday to today in the Swing State Tracking poll might be a bigger deal.

Right Mover on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Either paid ObamaBot or Mother of all Eeyores..or psychopathic

HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Considering where Obama is looking to take us, would it be at all surprising if he had his own 50 cent army? Up and coming new profession, that is.

26 cents take home of course. The obligation of paying for others’ lady parts operations doesn’t come cheap.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Why is nobody on Fox News or the conservative blogs mentioning that Jug Ears shouted to the moderator to “Get the transcript”?

MarkM on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

In case you haven’t noticed, Fox News is trying to become part of the mainstream media while conning naive conservatives to believe it supports their cause.

bw222 on October 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM

CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Of course. Remember how PBS refused to defend Jim Lehrer post Denver debate and left him out to dry on his own from the wrath of the Left?

Liberal institutions bank on their moderators running interference for their candidates. They can’t win on their own merits.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

Romney has one guy doing all the work (too cheap to pay for more help, seriously) and he just throws ads up randomly (now we’re getting some bad debt ad focusing on China in WI).

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

\

On other threads you argue that Obama is winning and ahead and his debate performance will turn into a huge surge where he will easily defeat Romney.

Now you are claiming that Obama has a much better ground game than Romney and therefore will pull it out despite the polls.

Now, this new argument at least has the possibility of being correct – but you have no knowledge that it is so, except anecdotal (I heard from some guys in WI). It is possible that Obama’s ground game is so much better than Romney’s that he can make up the 2% or so he is behind in the polls. But, at least now you are seeing reality and realize Obama is not currently winning the race.

Monkeytoe on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

So is Ed gumby and Allah pokey?
He’s here 24/7. Obsessed with polls….
Either paid ObamaBot or Mother of all Eeyores..or psychopathic.
Seriously, no one could be that dumb..unless it was on purpose and is trying to drive comment count.
HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Oh, it is quite common for Obama supporters like Gumby to be that dumb. Believe me, I have seen in enough of them. Gumby is very typical.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

If MI and WI continue to trend R, Obama will have to divert resources to these states to shore them up at a moment when OH needs every $ there.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

WI report:

Seeing increased ad spending on both sides.

Biden spending three days straight in WI this weekend!

They’re scared.

WisRich on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

3rd debate? They should put Tagg Romney in the front row, to look at 0 straight in the eye.

runner on October 18, 2012 at 11:33 AM

What I’ve heard is that the people Obama have to plan out what ads to air in what markets are much, much smarter than the one person that Romney has doing the same amount of work.

It may seem like nothing, but it could make a difference in a close race.

Also, the whole idea of Romney’s GOTV meaning “voter contacts” vs Obama’s GOTV, which means they take people to the polls for early voting will be an interesting test, as well.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

what the kids at KOS say isn’t really all that convincing. I’m sure you believe that Obama’s team is just soooo much better than Romney’s that Team O will pull this off despite the trajectory of the race. We all cling to hope when the outlook seems poor.

Monkeytoe on October 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Would that be the same team that crafted the Big Bird ad?

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

One thing is for certain. Organizing for Obama has assembled the weakest, most intellectually challenged and wholly unconvincing team of lying trolls a campaign could ever muster to infiltrate sites like Hot Air.

Right Mover on October 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM

What I’ve heard is that the people Obama have to plan out what ads to air in what markets are much, much smarter than the one person that Romney has doing the same amount of work.

From the Daily Kos? The MSM has well-documented the difference between Obama and Romney’s ad buying strategies. Unfortunately for O, his strategy of buying ads in bulk will not favor him going forward as Romney’s ad buys at more premium prices will bump his bulk buys until he switches to match Romney’s strategy. The playing field is level and worse for O, he spent a $100M in ads that went up in smoke at the debates and money advantage is even.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM

“It is clear Rasmussen is choosing to oversample Democrats by about 5 points here but the question is WHY? Why is Rasmussen assuming a Dem +5 turnout when enthusiasm so clearly favors Romney?

as it was explained to me. Rassmussen constantly samples politiacal affiliations. then at the beginning of a month uses the prior month.

September was an extremly good month for Obama. remember our angst.

so oct 1st Rassmussen went to sept party id Dem+5

he will use this until 11/1(unless he changes?)

the debate was 10/3. almost instant change in all other polls which just take party id at face value.

rassmussen polls do not catch big fast swings.

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

If MI and WI continue to trend R, Obama will have to divert resources to these states to shore them up at a moment when OH needs every $ there.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I suspect Obama is alsready having to divert resources to WI, we’re just not hearing about it. WI is probably going to have to be part of his “firewall” before too much longer.

Doomberg on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

It may seem like nothing, but it could make a difference in a close race.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Define “close”. You still haven’t answered my question:

Do you believe Obama can win the EC with only 47% of the popular?

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I know nobody will believe it, but I’ll tell you guys anyway…

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

Romney has one guy doing all the work (too cheap to pay for more help, seriously) and he just throws ads up randomly (now we’re getting some bad debt ad focusing on China in WI).

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Obama has wasted millions trying to recreate the ad carpet-bombimg he did in 2008. Only in 2008 most of it was positive, trying to reassure voters that he was up to the job and had substantive plans on things like health care. This year ALL his ads are negative and people are sick of them. They are so full of obvuious lies and hyperbole that they just don’t work. He has wasted tons of money running ridiculous ads on Medicare in the Florida Panhandle, where he will lose by 20 points. I saw this ad five times in 4 days. Nobody believes it.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Biden spending three days straight in WI this weekend!

They’re scared.

They’re worried. If they were in a panic they would be sending the President for a quick trip now and then.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

So is Ed gumby and Allah pokey?

HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’ve always assumed that Allah trolls us for fun.

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Wisconsin hasn’t gone Republican since the advent of the Macintosh computer. And Obama is still trying to shore up support there. It’s pathetic.

Oh this is gonna be so sweet. Time to stock up on puddin!

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 11:37 AM

CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

WOW

gophergirl on October 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM

That info is available to premium members.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

.
Your best bet is to cling to Intrade numbers.

The Marxist is still shown to be winning 60s to 30s.
-(Fleecing the righteous libbies of their $$$, I say)…..

So at least you have that for Hopey, pokey.

FlaMurph on October 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

it is true that Obama and Romney have different ad strategies and on a dollar per dollar basis Obama gets more ads for the dollar.

Romney pays some higher rates because they wait to decide were to place ads.

they also pay more for guaranteed placement at certain times.

since I’m not an expert i will resserve judement on what is the best way

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I know nobody will believe it, but I’ll tell you guys anyway…

If Obama wins the election, one of the reasons will be the very good team Obama put together to figure out where to target their ad buys down the stretch and what specific ads to run in specific markets.

Romney has one guy doing all the work (too cheap to pay for more help, seriously) and he just throws ads up randomly (now we’re getting some bad debt ad focusing on China in WI).

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I just choked on my Diet Pepsi

gophergirl on October 18, 2012 at 11:40 AM

“Now, this new argument at least has the possibility of being correct – but you have no knowledge that it is so, except anecdotal (I heard from some guys in WI). It is possible that Obama’s ground game is so much better than Romney’s that he can make up the 2% or so he is behind in the polls. But, at least now you are seeing reality and realize Obama is not currently winning the race.

Monkeytoe on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM”

Obama is very, very smart to lock up all the early votes he can in case his poll numbers would sag (for whatever reason). The Romney campaign’s idea of GOTV is “voter contacts” which is nothing more than phone calls, mailers, and some door knocks. That does not get voters to the polls, which is why Romney is getting swamped in early voting in states like Ohio and Iowa. Here in WI, the Obama campaign has people coming in to get people to the polls while the Romney campaign has zero plans to do any of that when early voting starts.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I demand a bumper sticker like this:

“Romney was Right” -candy

With the logo Rs on both words. Someone make it so.

StubbleSpark on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Wasn’t the OH GOP somewhat of a mess four years ago too? Organization on the ground is everything.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

That’s an understatement if I ever saw one. The combination of Bush’s second term collapse, which was felt particularly hard in Ohio, and Bob Taft really did a number on the state GOP.

Ohio continues to be suicidal. I for the life of me can’t understand what the duck is going on there?

Is it Ohio’s propensity for backing LOSERS like the Cavaliers (NBA) Browns, Bengals (NFL) Indians (MLB), the reason they want to back another LOSER like Obama?

But we can without Ohio. Pick up WI or Michigan.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM

First, what a great attitude, screw our hometown teams if they aren’t winners. Anyways, assuming Ohio does go Obama there is a fair argument for an average low info Ohio voter doing that. Let’s look at how the state has done under the last 30 years of presidents:

Reagan (R) – meh job growth
Bush I (R) – loss jobs
Clinton (D) – jobs boom
Bush II (R) – meh jobs growth that ends with a massive drop
Obama (D) – meh jobs growth moving to a jobs boom

Notice a pattern? Of course this could also be put at the feet of governors:

Celeste(D) – meh job growth to loss jobs
Voinovich(R) – jobs boom
Taft(R, so incompetent shouldn’t be in any party) – meh jobs growth
Strickland(D) – massive drop moving to meh jobs growth
Kasich (R) – jobs boom

Now you could, and I would, argue the governors have more of a role. Celeste and Strickland were democrat union loving hacks, Taft was a time serving moron, and Voinovich and Kasich were/are both great active reforming republican governors. Romney won’t make the governors case and most people naturally look at presidents so there we are.

jarodea on October 18, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Obama is very, very smart to lock up all the early votes he can in case his poll numbers would sag (for whatever reason). The Romney campaign’s idea of GOTV is “voter contacts” which is nothing more than phone calls, mailers, and some door knocks. That does not get voters to the polls, which is why Romney is getting swamped in early voting in states like Ohio and Iowa. Here in WI, the Obama campaign has people coming in to get people to the polls while the Romney campaign has zero plans to do any of that when early voting starts.

Except none of this is true. Early voting in OH and Iowa is trending R. LOL, gumby, if you’re going to shill at least cherry-pick the facts you can defend.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

actually I read that Romney concentrates on voters who would vote for him but usually do not go to vote as opposed to people who would definetly go to vote for him anyways.

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Sorry, RuPoll, but I seriously doubt that you know any Democrats or Republicans “in the know.”

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Another debate “win” and Obama is done for sure.

the wolf on October 18, 2012 at 11:49 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

actually I read that Romney concentrates on voters who would vote for him but usually do not go to vote as opposed to people who would definetly go to vote for him anyways.

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM”

Right, but they aren’t physically taking voters to the polls like the Obama team does. Rent some vans/busses and get their butts to the polls. It’s just a different philosophy on how to do things.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:51 AM

I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Yet another one of your problems. Anecdotal data really doesn’t mean that much.

So you new “hotness of the day” is that Obama has better ad guys.

This is after, Scott Walker, Atomic Jobs Report, Biden, GDP, supposed Romney gaffe that would cost him the election… and now, you hear some guys in your town talking about ads.

Please stop acting like you are an expert on anything. Paying for a subscription to Gallup or Rasmussen so that you can look at numbers that you don’t understand does not give you any more wisdom than anyone else.

You have time and time again shown a profound lack of wisdom or perspective, an inability to look at the whole picture and the long game.

No matter how the election turns out (and no one really knows how it will turn out), your predictions will have meant nothing to anyone but yourself.

ShadowsPawn on October 18, 2012 at 11:51 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:51 AM

we’ll take your advice.

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Obama is very, very smart to lock up all the early votes he can in case his poll numbers would sag (for whatever reason). The Romney campaign’s idea of GOTV is “voter contacts” which is nothing more than phone calls, mailers, and some door knocks. That does not get voters to the polls, which is why Romney is getting swamped in early voting in states like Ohio and Iowa. Here in WI, the Obama campaign has people coming in to get people to the polls while the Romney campaign has zero plans to do any of that when early voting starts.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

All lies.

Romney is especially doing well in Iowa early voting. R is 54k behind D as of yesterday. Bush was 65k behind Kerry and went on to win IA by 10k

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Obama is very, very smart to lock up all the early votes he can in case his poll numbers would sag (for whatever reason).

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

What if a whole bunch of people vote for Romney in early voting and Obama does get a good job report?

To paraphrase someone that you know, “This kind of unrealistic nonsense utter asshattery is why I’m here for you.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

The delicious irony is that this is absolutely true. Misdirected, of course, but still true.

RINO in Name Only on October 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Sorry, RuPoll, but I seriously doubt that you know any Democrats or Republicans “in the know.”

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:47 AM

How about Rue-poll, ’cause he’s going to regret ever bringing these up!

Mitsouko on October 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

“I’ve heard this brought up by both Democrats and Republicans in the know in WI that this could be important in a close election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Sorry, RuPoll, but I seriously doubt that you know any Democrats or Republicans “in the know.”

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:47 AM”

You would be absolutely “what the heck” shocked.

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

No you weren’t.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:57 AM

the GOP GOTV ground game in Wisconsin DEVASTATED the commies…I think you will see something similar in Ohio.

Strike Hornet on October 18, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Right, but they aren’t physically taking voters to the polls like the Obama team does. Rent some vans/busses and get their butts to the polls. It’s just a different philosophy on how to do things.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Yes, we’ve heard this philosophy before: “vote early, vote often.”

RINO in Name Only on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

49-48 with an MoE of +/- 4 with undecideds breaking for the challenger and things rolling Romney’s way is a pretty good spot for him to be in Ohio. I’m in the Ohio crowd and can see the utter lack of enthusiasm (in Northeast Ohio no less) for Obama while Romney enthusiasm is picking up, but still I think the state will be won by 2 or less by whoever wins it. Romney is safely in that zone at the moment.

I suspect Obama is alsready having to divert resources to WI, we’re just not hearing about it. WI is probably going to have to be part of his “firewall” before too much longer.

Doomberg on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Jim Geraghty notes the Jill Biden trip and ad spending in MN could be more directed at spillover areas of WI. But yeah I’ll sure there will be more triage news from Obama that will involve resources going to WI.

jarodea on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

3. The current polls are showing turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels. This is the last point, but it works off the first two. Of the seven current RCP polls, the average democrat advantage in party ID is 5.4%. If you work off a D+5 2008 advantage as outlined above, that means the average poll in Ohio right now assumes the same turnout as 2008. While anything is possible on 11/6, there are not many on either side thinking Obama can match his 2008 advantages for a number of reasons. Here are the two most obvious reasons to not work off of a 2008 turnout model:

1. Romney is going to keep up or outspend Obama on TV in the last month. In 2008 McCain limped to the finish line with cash because of taking public financing. This is not a problem this year, and can make a difference on the margins in the final days.

2. In 2008 McCain had trouble getting more than a few thousand people to see him at campaign rallies. While Palin was able to generate larger crowds, the enthusiasm was not apparently for McCain and it hurt him on election day. Since the debate, Romney has been pulling crowds that Jeff Zeleny of the NYT referred to as “Obama sized crowds.”

The large Romney rallies point to a larger problem for Obama this year – GOP enthusiasm is outperforming Democratic enthusiasm with three weeks to go. This will translate to more volunteers in the state, higher base turnout, and a much more robust GOTV effort.This is clearly hard to translate before the election happens, but sometimes common sense prevails when

Obama won in 2008 largely because of a highly enthused base turning out votes combined with a healthy lead with independents. Right now Romney is leading with independents, has a more enthusiastic base and is drawing crowds that rival Obama in Ohio. While he is down 2%, the average poll is assuming 2008 turnout which is unlikely to repeat itself this year. As if that was not enough, Obama is stuck at 48.3% which is not a great place to be when the challenger has momentum in the final days of a campaign. Not bad for a candidate declared dead in the state just a few weeks ago.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 18, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Romney has lots of voters, base voters, independant voters, men voters, women voters, literally, binders of voters.

Lily on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The binders of women! How much for the binders of women?

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

me to.

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

You would be absolutely “what the heck” shocked.

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Big deal, on Wednesday, I met with TWO very popular politicians who said your politician is full of crap.

RINO in Name Only on October 18, 2012 at 12:01 PM

A reminder about how credible gumby is on Wisconsin:

I’m in Wisconsin and he will lose to Tom Barrett… … Walker is going to lose. I was just at a recent Walker fundraiser and many supporters are literally begging him to actually campaign with some fire and passion, but he wants to win or lose being the “nice guy.” There’s just nothing you can do when the candidate refuses to return fire and is literally a punching bag day after day after day after day.

It’s incredibly frustrating here and things are only going to get worse. And for some reason, Obama is just loved here, and I can’t figure out why. Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.

The best case scenario is that Gov Walker wins by the skin of his teeth like Prosser did against Kloppenberg.
gumbyandpokey on May 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Walker is a goner…

“A new Rasmussen poll finds that Republican Wisconsin Scott Walker is in trouble of being recalled June 5, with a majority, 52 percent, saying they will vote him out less than two years after he took office and immediately went to work to cut the power of public service unions.

Worse for Walker: 53 percent disapprove of his job as governor with a whopping 46 percent saying they “strongly disapprove” of Walker. Majorities of both men and women now support his recall. Rasmussen found that his support among Republicans and conservatives remains strong.
gumbyandpokey on April 2, 2012 at 7:10 PM

People lie when they have no other options.

The fact gumby is on here day and night lying his face off is a positive leading indicator.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 18, 2012 at 11:59 AM

boy i wish i had thought about my user name before i selected it.

I guess i have no imagination

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 12:03 PM

“While he is down 2%, the average poll is assuming 2008 turnout which is unlikely to repeat itself this year.”

Romney is losing OH even with a 37/37 Dem/GOP split, according to Rasmussen this morning.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Jim Geraghty notes the Jill Biden trip and ad spending in MN could be more directed at spillover areas of WI. But yeah I’ll sure there will be more triage news from Obama that will involve resources going to WI.

jarodea on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

She wouldn’t be going to Duluth if that were the case.

gophergirl on October 18, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Forgot to highlight the best part:

Romney shouldn’t spend one cent since WI is not in play.

WI is toss up on RCP. Obama spending money to defend it and Biden is campaigning there.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 12:05 PM

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

..better watch out; I hear they patrol those public restrooms. Besides, your Guatemalan pool-boy live-in lover might get jealous and scratch your eyes out or pour sand in your favorite sequined bikini bottoms.

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 12:05 PM

@gumbyandpokey

Your handle is appropriate. From your posts, it is obvious that you live in fantasy land.

landlines on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

You would be absolutely “what the heck” shocked.

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Sorry, not true. Paul Ryan is in Florida today.

Anyway, sorry, gotta run. Off to lunch with Vitali Klitschko and Boris Johnson.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

You would be absolutely “what the heck” shocked.

I was just in a meeting with a VERY popular WI politician on Tuesday.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

You need to start issuing “Spew Alerts.”

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Romney is losing OH even with a 37/37 Dem/GOP split, according to Rasmussen this morning.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Ras also had indies tied. Not going to happen.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

People lie when they have no other options.

The fact gumby is on here day and night lying his face off is a positive leading indicator.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Wow.

Thanks for that quote. I figured Gump was full of it, but I had no idea that he had been on here as a fake republican. I’m always skeptical when someone gets accused of being a Moby – a lot of people throw around the “concern troll” label way too freely. But I guess however rare they are, they really do exist.

RINO in Name Only on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

How do you spell ‘landslide’?

faraway on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Right, but they aren’t physically taking voters to the polls like the Obama team does. Rent some vans/busses and get their butts to the polls Especially from out of state. It’s just a different philosophy on how to do things.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:51 AM

For Clarity!

D-fusit on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

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