Romney edge expands post-debate in Rasmussen tracking poll

posted at 10:41 am on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Left seemed pretty pleased with Barack Obama’s performance in Tuesday night’s debate, cheering his renewed energy and aggressiveness.  How did it play with voters overall?  The spot polls produced mixed results, generally agreeing with most pundits that it had been a draw.  Today’s Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama falling slightly further behind as the first post-debate data gets added to the mix:

 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history. …

These updates are based upon nightly polling and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Tuesday night’s presidential debate. Saturday morning will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

Interestingly, Romney’s 49% is solid with or without leaners.  Without leaners, Obama only gets to 46%. Among those “certain” to vote, Romney leads 46/44.  Republicans now have an eight-point advantage on enthusiasm, 83/75, with independents nearly as enthused as Democrats at 72%.

Party loyalty is about even between the two candidates, but Romney leads by nine points among independents, which Obama won in 2008 by eight points.  With leaners, Romney’s above the majority mark among these unaffiliated voters, 51/42. Obama has a narrow lead among millenials (49/46) and a much wider lead among thirtysomethings (56/36), but those are also the least enthusiastic age demos at 61% and 59%, respectively.  Romney has wide leads in the other age demos, which have enthusiasm numbers ranging from 84%-88%.

Also, the gender gap now favors Romney rather than Obama.  In 2008′s exit polling, Obama won women by 13 points and men by one for a +14 gender gap over John McCain and a seven-point victory overall.  In the tracking poll data, Rasmussen reports that Obama only leads among women by four and trails among men by 10 for a -6 gender gap.  That’s a flip of 19 points, combined with a 17-point flip among independents.

Those are daunting numbers for Obama.  Combine those with the enthusiasm changes since 2008, and it’s not difficult to imagine that Romney’s actual lead might be significantly wider than the +2 overall here.  At least in the first round of data, it doesn’t appear that the debate on Tuesday night did Obama any good.


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And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I’m still in full Eeyore mode. Waiting til saturday I guess.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I don’t really get too worked about Ras anymore. He’s like a see-saw every week. But this does seem to reflect other polls. Romney and Obama are both doing well with their base, but Romney dominates with indie voters. And Romney’s edge with men far outweighs Obama’s edge with women. Which means unless O-I-H-O and a bunch of other swing states “act stupidly” on Election Day, it’ll be very difficult for Obama to get re-elected.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 10:44 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Not if WI flips to Romney

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The first debate, won by Romney, reset the race.

The second debate, won by Obama, again resets the race back to his advantage.

All Romney needed was a draw, and he couldn’t even achieve that.

gumbyandpokeyRuPoll on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

And Rasmussen still using a D+5 sample.

Also, PPP shows no bounce for Obama in their polls.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I live in OH and already voted R/R absentee as did the wife. There are a ton more Romney signs there ever was McCain signs and most of those were probably people who were really jazzed about Palin.

gsherin on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Not with Michigan in play.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokeyRuPoll on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Res ipsa loquitur.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Aww, claywadthatbendsoverforpokey hardest hit.

Thomas More on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Romney has lots of voters, base voters, independant voters, men voters, women voters, literally, binders of voters.

Lily on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

And Rasmussen still using a D+5 sample.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Is he also doing that in his state poll for O-I-H-O? If so, someone make sure there are no razor blades or nooses around Gumby.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Good news… keep expanding that lead, Presumptive President-Elect Romney…

Khun Joe on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Sorry, this is the first serious look we’ve had at post-debate Romney numbers, and he’s going up slightly, exactly contrary to what you claimed was going to happen. As usual, you were wrong and the people saying this was another Biden-Ryan debate were correct. You’re going to be proven wrong about Ohio in the next few weeks, too.

Though I have to admit, if we lose OH but take WI, it’ll be good for a laugh.

Doomberg on October 18, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Also, the gender gap now favors Romney rather than Obama.

Clearly the binder bump has yet to show up for Obama. /

Seriously, local talk radio is having women call in this morning and they are ticked off that they are being insulted by team rat-ears as if with all the other issues they are concerned about the campaign is pandering to their lady parts.

One woman in particular had a good point. Contraception per month is costing her far less than what it takes to buy food or gas.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 10:48 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

That is 100% false. Just the fact that you keep saying that shows that you are a clueless troll.

Is it harder without Ohio? Sure. But it is very likely that Romney wins even without Ohio.

And your posts about Romney being down in Florida miss one crucial aspect. Obama cant get to 50 in Florida. All those undecideds will all go to Romney.

Stated differently, you are 100% wrong, as always.

milcus on October 18, 2012 at 10:48 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

gumbyandpokey

GAP as in too large of a gap in your synapses making you a one trick pony unable to think.

chemman on October 18, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Rasmussen has been bouncing back and forth between 49/47 and 48/47 R/O for about a week now. This may just be more of the same, but what it does prove is that “winning” that debate may not have helped Obama. Next few days will tell us more.

Waggoner on October 18, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I thought Bark’s new tough guy stance was supposed to turn things around. Everyone likes a tough guy, especially in mom jeans which are modified to accept a hidden MP5.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 10:49 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I live in Ohio. Obama’s not taking it. It will be close, but Romney’s winning Ohio.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’ve seen this before.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

All Romney needed was a draw, and he couldn’t even achieve that.

Romney may have “lost” the debate in the snap polls by 7 or 8, but on the greatest key issue, the economy Romney won by 27 and 18 respectively.

For that reason, even CNN called it a draw.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I live in OH and already voted R/R absentee as did the wife. There are a ton more Romney signs there ever was McCain signs and most of those were probably people who were really jazzed about Palin.

gsherin on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Wasn’t the OH GOP somewhat of a mess four years ago too? Organization on the ground is everything.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

“Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokeyRuPoll on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Res ipsa loquitur.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM”

@JimPethokoukis: Barclays: US jobless claims distorted from beginning-of-quarter volatility; we forecast a 125k gain in October payrolls
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Not with Michigan in play.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 10:46 AM

MI isn’t in play. WI, maybe.

Jon0815 on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

That’s funny, you were saying the exact same thing about Florida a couple of weeks ago.

And since you ignored it in the other thread, I’ll post this again to make sure you see it.

Perhaps you didn’t notice dumbo, your boy lost 3% with Independents. If you think Romney won’t shave off even more after Monday’s debate on foreign policy – you’re even more delusional than you appear.

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Romney +2 with a D+5 sample. Should translate to about 52-47 on election day.

Ohio is huge… but looking less so every day, with CO, and VA gone, IA, NH, WI going, and PA, MI and even MN providing huge cracks in the (third? fourth?) “firewall.”

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Not with Michigan in play.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Yep. Take a look at this.

It’s only one poll, but it shows that Romney is within the MOE, he leads with indies, and Obama is only at 44% which is a very bad place to be if you’re an incumbent less than a month away from the election.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM

All this celebration with Ohio still in Obama’s column, lol.

And you guys are going to be devestated when post-debate #2 polls come out showing Obama back with his solid lead. Romney got hammered all morning on the news shows, hammered on the evening news, and he’s getting hammered all night on cable tv for his poor performance. And that negative focus the day later is what caused Obama’s problems following his lethargic debate.

I actually have sympathy for you guys since Romney might have a had a real chance if he had given a strong performance. Instead, he tanked and Obama is back with the momentum.

I’m looking forward to collecting my 100.00.

gumbyandpokeyRuPoll on October 17, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Obama won 2008 with nothing and now has worse than nothing. A bad record and no plan for the future. No way to win on a vague Hope message this time.

Dash on October 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Today’s Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama falling slightly further behind as the first post-debate data gets added to the mix:

The basic problem for Obama is that the big loser in the Tuesday debate was not Obama and not Romney, but rather the US economy.

Look, if you have a solid 90 minutes in which almost every question comes with the message “this economy sucks” and that sentiment is echoed by Romney and acknowledged by Obama, then that hurts Obama greatly.

The voter leaves the debate with the following convictions:

1) the economy sucks
2) Obama has failed to do anything to improve things
3) Obama has lots of “plans” but cannot explain why he didn’t implement those plans in the past 4 years.

I don’t see how 90 minutes of exposure to that narrative helps Obama in the slightest. It’s like what we saw in the health care debate: the more Obama talks the worse he does.

PackerBronco on October 18, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Good news… keep expanding that lead, Presumptive President-Elect Romney…

Khun Joe on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Just as long as President-elect Romney doesn’t set up a fake “office of the President-elect” logo.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Not if WI flips to Romney

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

O’bamna blows huge WI lead

A new poll of Wisconsin voters by Marquette Law School (when it comes to polling, it seems that everyone’s getting into the act) provides good news for both Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson. The poll has Romney in a virtual tie with President Obama (Obama 49, Romney 48). It also has Thompson virtually deadlocked with his opponent Tammy Baldwin (Thompson 46, Baldwin 45).

-snip-

The vice presidential debate didn’t help Obama in Wisconsin. Before the debate, 49 percent of those surveyed somehow held a positive view of Joe Biden, while only 41 percent viewed him unfavorably. Afterwards, Talkin’ Joe found himself underwater, 43-47. Apparently, rudeness and histrionics don’t play well in the upper Midwest.

As for native son Paul Ryan, his favorability split improved after the debate from 46-41 to 50-40. The respondents viewed Ryan as the debate winner by a margin of 51-42. Independents saw it that way by a margin of 53-39.

Marquette = The Gold Standard of Wisconsin Polling.

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 10:54 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

you must be waiting at the keyboard. this is the second time in 2 days your first. things must be desperate at obama central

lol

gerrym51 on October 18, 2012 at 10:54 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I live in Ohio. Obama’s not taking it. It will be close, but Romney’s winning Ohio.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I agree, I live in Columbus and there is no enthusiasm for Obama.

buckichick1 on October 18, 2012 at 10:54 AM

MI isn’t in play. WI, maybe.

Jon0815 on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Yes it is.

New dem poll out this morning in MI

O 45
R 42

dumbygumbyanddopey posted it ealier in another thread.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 10:55 AM

But…But…Hope!…Change!…Lady Parts!…Binders!…War on Women!…Jay-Z!…Beyonce!…Par-tay!…Big Bird?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Wasn’t the OH GOP somewhat of a mess four years ago too? Organization on the ground is everything.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I think the GOP in general was a mess 4 years ago. Shoot, even in 2010 they didn’t have it together thanks to Michael Steele’s inept performance as RNC head. They seem to be clicking now though.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 10:55 AM

“And Rasmussen still using a D+5 sample.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Is he also doing that in his state poll for O-I-H-O? If so, someone make sure there are no razor blades or nooses around Gumby.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 10:47 AM”

Not even close…

Rasmussen Ohio: Obama 49-48. 37-37-25 DRI split.

Romney can’t even muster a tie with a dead-even partisan split in Ohio.

Obama wins Ohio.

Obama wins the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Obama won 2008 with nothing and now has worse than nothing. A bad record and no plan for the future. No way to win on a vague Hope message this time.

Dash on October 18, 2012 at 10:52 AM

He will always have Gumby.

I can see it now. On election day, after Romney wins with over 300 electoral votes, the Republicans get 53 seats in the Senate, and add to their majority in the House, the troll will come back and say, “first poll from 2016 shows Obama leading by 2 in Florida. Atom Bomb. LOL. Game over.”

milcus on October 18, 2012 at 10:56 AM

But Romney has binders filled with dogs strapped to the roof of his car or something.

eyedoc on October 18, 2012 at 10:56 AM

@JimPethokoukis: Barclays: US jobless claims distorted from beginning-of-quarter volatility; we forecast a 125k gain in October payrolls
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Your back must be killin’ ya, RuPoll, from all that cherry pickin’!

@JimPethokoukis So far, we’ve got 2 predictions on payroll gains, right? 125K from Barclays and 88K from First Trust? Put me down for 85K.

85K is a S.U.C.K. number.

88K is a S.U.C.K. number.

125K is a S.U.C.K. number.

None of them even come close to keeping up with population growth.

You are so over-the-top that you make RuPaul look demure.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 10:56 AM

@JimPethokoukis: Barclays: US jobless claims distorted from beginning-of-quarter volatility; we forecast a 125k gain in October payrolls
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Why are you citing this? Are you excited by week job numbers? I know big numbers are scary to lefties, but you realize that a 125k gain isn’t a good thing, right? It’s just barely keeping up with population growth.

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 10:57 AM

And Obama remains ahead in Ohio.

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

If Romney wins the nation, he wins Ohio. That’s what the past 20 years tells us.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I agree, I live in Columbus and there is no enthusiasm for Obama.

buckichick1 on October 18, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Yep. And Columbus is a key swing portion of the state.

I live in the Dayton area, btw.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The latest Survey USA poll has the President up by 3 in OH. However, it has the President at 45%, losing Indies by 8%, a D+7 sample, and Indies under polled (against 2008 assumptions) by 5 points.

Worse, when you add up the partisan breaks you only get to 97% so there’s another 3% unaccounted for…and unaffiliated voters break heavily towards the Dem. So all in all, this is a good poll for Romney.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Lol, Romney leads on enthusiasm by 7, with Independents by 9 and with gender voters by 6, yet he leads the poll only by 2?

It is clear Rasmussen is choosing to oversample Democrats by about 5 points here but the question is WHY? Why is Rasmussen assuming a Dem +5 turnout when enthusiasm so clearly favors Romney?

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Stop getting my hopes up!!!

KS Rex on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Being peevish thin-skinned and arrogant played right into the D wheelhouse, but did not help Obama much so far.

MarkT on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

“85K is a S.U.C.K. number.

88K is a S.U.C.K. number.

125K is a S.U.C.K. number.

None of them even come close to keeping up with population growth.

You are so over-the-top that you make RuPaul look demure.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 10:56 AM”

85-88K would be very bad news for Obama. 125K would be very good news and would get very favorable press.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Del Dolemonte on October 18, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Good news for Romney, but the info there that should make conservatives breathing a real sigh of relief is the glimmer of hope that Thompson has finally turned it around. It was looking pretty nasty there, even taking into account the D+6 skew in most WI polls. (Marquette’s latest is D+3, IIRC, which isn’t unfair.)

Michigan meanwhile hasn’t had too much play lately. I guess it’s hard to keep up the facade of Obama leading in Ohio when the PVI D+4 state next door is floating within the MoE…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Ohio continues to be suicidal. I for the life of me can’t understand what the duck is going on there?

Is it Ohio’s propensity for backing LOSERS like the Cavaliers (NBA) Browns, Bengals (NFL) Indians (MLB), the reason they want to back another LOSER like Obama?

But we can without Ohio. Pick up WI or Michigan.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Here in the state of Washington, I pray that Mitt win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and all the state in which is he close.

If he does that, then it will depress the democrat voting here in Washington, in which case, we can finally have a Republican governor.

Go Mitt Go.

BroncosRock on October 18, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I can see Ohio from my house.

The only thing that’s blue, is the sky above it.

Norky on October 18, 2012 at 11:00 AM

“It is clear Rasmussen is choosing to oversample Democrats by about 5 points here but the question is WHY? Why is Rasmussen assuming a Dem +5 turnout when enthusiasm so clearly favors Romney?

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM”

Rasmussen had a terrible time in the 2010 Senate elections, so he’s playing it very safe this cycle, imo.

He blew a few Senate races that he had going to the GOP.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Rasmussen Ohio: Obama 49-48. 37-37-25 DRI split.

Romney can’t even muster a tie with a dead-even partisan split in Ohio.

Obama wins Ohio.

Obama wins the election.

gumbyandpokey

Lol, where are you getting that? Rasmussen NEVER states his partisan splits on a poll by poll basis – ever.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Romney edge expands post-debate in Rasmussen tracking poll

But, but, but…Obama had his best debate evah!!…and what about Binders!!!eleventy!

/libtards

Norwegian on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Lose Ohio and lose the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Obama will get 47% of the vote. If he’s lucky. You’re not seriously entertaining the idea that a candidate could lose the popular vote by 5% and still win the EC are you?

If you think Obama can win the EC with 47% of the popular then you’re delusional. If you think Obama can win more than 47% of the popular then you’re delusional.

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
New MI poll by a D firm (Denno Research) has Obama up only 3%, 44-41. Romney up 6 w/ indys. #tightening http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20121017/ELECTIONS01/310170043/Michigan-poll-presidential-race-Obama-Romney
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Michigan poll posted by you know who in other thread.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Not if he loses WI or Michigan. Besides Obama is leading by 1 POINT!!!! Well within the margin of error of +/- 3.6%

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

MI isn’t in play. WI, maybe.

Jon0815

I’m not saying MI is in play. But I would like to see a more recent poll than what is on RCP which is 10 days old. The Detroit news one is the last one with Obama +7, but thats half the lead he had less than a month before.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 11:03 AM

85-88K would be very bad news for Obama. 125K would be very good news and would get very favorable press.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

**eyeroll**

But, I return to my question:

How’s your back, cherrypicker?

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:03 AM

If the gap widens for Romney, then its obvious that O’BONGa did not win the debate. The public felt bad for him and gave it to him on jive points.

Red Creek on October 18, 2012 at 11:03 AM

One thing to keep in mind.

As election day approaches, pollsters will be tightening up their samples to reflect reality. No one wants a huge miss on election day.

This means a continuing surge towards Romney as we have seen in Gallup.

So far we aren’t seeing any “Obama bounce” from the debate. That doesn’t mean some media outlet won’t churn out a Dem +20 sample with Obama up 7 just for fun.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:04 AM

BTW Gumby – SWEEEEEEEEEEEET debate bounce!

Obama LOST a point on Rasmussen’s 3 day tracker. That means he went DOWN 2-3 points after Tuesday night’s puppet show.

And how about tha Swing state poll!

Yesterday: 49/46 Obama
Today: 49/48 Romney

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:04 AM

No Gumby, I am not saying we are going to lose Ohio, but with the reports that Obama’s team is conceding NC (good move by O’s team), FL, VA, and may be even CO, the EC map is looking like one mid-size swing state and small EV state away from a Mitt victory.

There is a first time for everything. Did you know that a Dem did not win the WH without winning Missouri? . . . until 2008. McCain won it.

mwbri on October 18, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Pollsters are fearful of reporting too big of a Romney edge. The WH chooses to come down hard and discredit any pollster who doesn’t have their back. (Gallup?)

Mitt will take Ohio by 4 points or more. Book it.

Sugar Land on October 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Rasmussen has been weird this entire cycle, and I’m still unsure why he’s seeing enthusiasm numbers like that but has made his sample even more Democratic. In his swing state tracking, Romney’s now ahead by one…that’s a swing of a few points in a very short time.

More important to me is where the ad buys are. Markets in VA were consistently in the top ten for ad buys…not so in the most recent week. Only one market in FL was. Instead, the top ten markets consist mostly of several in OH, WI, and IA. That’s consistent with the Obama firewall strategy we’ve been hearing about.

changer1701 on October 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM

On key issues, Romney won across the board in blowouts. Obama only gave an impression of being slightly ahead post debate because Candy cut Mitt off repeatedly from hammering back at Obama, leaving several key statements unchallenged.

And yes, the questions were carefully selected to make it easy on the prez, thereby ensuring an enhanced performance on his part.

But Romney still won in my opinion. He chased Obama back to his stool time and again in hot pursuit, where Obama would run to safety to plead with Candy to help him out. Plead with a scared face.

Without moderators, Romney would destroy Obama easily. Libs need moderators at debates, period. We don’t.

We have a real man.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Luckily for us, Obama’s planted questioner in the debate opened up the assault weapons ban issue and he was kind enough to take the bait, thus stimulating a NRA mass mail and phone effort in the swing states regarding gun rights. Sweet irony.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Lol, Industry job gains will be 85k, but the Household Survey will show 1.5 million part time jobs added.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:05 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
New MI poll by a D firm (Denno Research) has Obama up only 3%, 44-41. Romney up 6 w/ indys. #tightening http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20121017/ELECTIONS01/310170043/Michigan-poll-presidential-race-Obama-Romney
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I love how you post polls like this and think they’re good news.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM

85-88K would be very bad news for Obama. 125K would be very good news and would get very favorable press.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM

No, it wouldn’t. The press won’t trash that number, but even the drive-bys don’t try to sell 125k as good news anymore. It’s basically treading water.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Candy Crowley WAS Obama’s teleprompter in the second debate. She was literally feeding him lines.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Here in the state of Washington, I pray that Mitt win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and all the state in which is he close.
If he does that, then it will depress the democrat voting here in Washington, in which case, we can finally have a Republican governor.
Go Mitt Go.
BroncosRock on October 18, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I second that!

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Your tally of failure:

Jobs report would be an atom bomb. Fail.

Biden’s debate would be a game changer. Fail.

A romney lead in gallup is meaningless while an Obama one is. Fail.

Rasmussen would move into O’s area today. R +2. Fail.

Keep spinning turd. You’re doing a great job!

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Can you imagine the total wail of anguish and the gnashing of teeth when Obama is buried by Rommney. I think it may be so severe that the emergency rooms will be packed with attempted suicides. And Chris Matthews may not only lose the tingle in his leg but his entire leg.

logicman_1998 on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

The more voters see Mitt unfiltered in the debates, the more they support him. The exact opposite is true for Obama. Bring on the third debate!

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

“It is clear Rasmussen is choosing to oversample Democrats by about 5 points here but the question is WHY? Why is Rasmussen assuming a Dem +5 turnout when enthusiasm so clearly favors Romney?

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 10:58 AM”

Rasmussen had a terrible time in the 2010 Senate elections, so he’s playing it very safe this cycle, imo.

He blew a few Senate races that he had going to the GOP.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Rasmussen Ohio: Obama 49-48. 37-37-25 DRI split.

Romney can’t even muster a tie with a dead-even partisan split in Ohio.

gumbyandpokeyon October 18, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Wait, what? Do you have a hot tip that Rasmussen is running polls with an even split or are you arguing that he is in fact running D+5 polls to “play it safe?”

I’m not saying anybody here regards you with the slightest shred of credibility, but could you at least go a full twenty minutes before your nonsense falls in on itself?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

The narrative is set folks. Romney is pulling away and the President if flailing. Any “game changer” Obama tries now will be seen for what it is… a stunt.
Folks are beginning to look around and see that you can actually admit you will vote for Romney (or at least against Obama) and not feel guilty about it.

Aloha Barry. Hawaii awaits your return.

Sugar Land on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

For my fellow data geeks who know that polls are flawed:

Romney will win Ohio (PIQ-52): http://piqscore.com/ohio/

Michigan is a toss-up (PIQ-49): http://piqscore.com/michigan/

If you compile the historical FEC result from all elections from 1980-2008, and assign an aggregated Political Inclination Quotient (PIQ) to rank each state on a scale of 0-to-100 you get a great moving picture of how 2012 will shake out.

http://piqscore.com/2012/10/new-analytical-model-cuts-through-the-fog-created-by-daily-political-polls/

The results are published on http://www.PIQscore.com and use a 0-to-100 number line (firm Democrats score 0-45; moderates and undecideds are 45-55; firm Republicans score 50-100).

* Obama takes the LEFT side of the bell curve, with PIQ scores of PIQ-48 and LOWER). It delivers 174 solid Electoral Votes from 18 blue states (plus Washington DC.) He will also likely pick up another 49 EVs from 5 states at PIQ-48), totaling 223 Electoral Votes

* Romney takes the RIGHT side of the bell curve, with PIQ scores of PIQ-53 and HIGHER. It delivers 236 solid Electoral Votes (from 26 red states). He also likely pick up another 26 EVs from 2 states @ PIQ-52 totaling 262 Electoral Votes

* That leaves five states in the middle up-for-grabs, with their PIQ scores between PIQ-48 and PIQ-51… and their 53 Electoral Votes. The states are MI (17 EVs), NJ (15 EVs), MO (11 EVs), WV (5 EVs), NM (5 EVs). Obama will need to win 47 of these EVs; Romney will only need 8.

To see your state, type the name of the state after
http://www.PIQscore.com/

VastRightWingConspirator on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

“Rasmussen Ohio: Obama 49-48. 37-37-25 DRI split.

Romney can’t even muster a tie with a dead-even partisan split in Ohio.

Obama wins Ohio.

Obama wins the election.

gumbyandpokey

Lol, where are you getting that? Rasmussen NEVER states his partisan splits on a poll by poll basis – ever.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:01 AM”

That info is available to premium members.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Just remember nobody saw the magnitude of 2010 coming. Nobody ever
expects the floor to fall out from the holy libs. Domm is always for the GOP.

rik on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

What numbers did Candy Crowlike poll?

Oh wait, she’s not running. Nevermind.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Sabato moves WI to pure tossup. Had lean D before.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Michigan meanwhile hasn’t had too much play lately. I guess it’s hard to keep up the facade of Obama leading in Ohio when the PVI D+4 state next door is floating within the MoE…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I gotta be pessimistic about MI. Too many beneficiaries of the payoff to the UAW via auto industry bailout. Too strong a union influence on votes.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Rasmussen has been weird this entire cycle, and I’m still unsure why he’s seeing enthusiasm numbers like that but has made his sample even more Democratic

He doesn’t want Eric Holder to sue him like Gallup?

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Oh wait, she’s not running. Nevermind.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Well that much is clear but she should be. Might be able to shed a few pounds of ugly.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Here in the state of Washington, I pray that Mitt win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and all the state in which is he close.
If he does that, then it will depress the democrat voting here in Washington, in which case, we can finally have a Republican governor.
Go Mitt Go.
BroncosRock on October 18, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Bah. Since when does fewer Democratic votes in Washington mean you guys get a Republican governor? Gregoire never fell for that type of logic.

Now if you guys did away with car trunks and bus station lockers, Washington Democrats would be in real trouble…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:11 AM

What numbers did Candy Crowlike poll?

Oh wait, she’s not running. Nevermind.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

CNN has an internal memo today defending Candy for giving Obama 10% more time. Obama deserved more time because he speaks more slowly than Romney.

I guess teams with slower running backs should get an extra down, too.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM

That info is available to premium members.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

The fact you have a premium membership and still haven’t a clue how polls work only confirms that you’re compensated to troll both here and Ace of Spades as “Greg”.

I honestly don’t know what is a harsher indictment of your life – the fact you’re being paid to do this or that you have nothing better to do with your time.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:13 AM

That info is available to premium members.

jame gumb and pokemon on October 18, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Oh? Did someone pay for your account?

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Obama is bleeding states so bad he can’t afford to lose another one.

That’s the real news.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 11:13 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Your tally of failure:
Jobs report would be an atom bomb. Fail.
Biden’s debate would be a game changer. Fail.
A romney lead in gallup is meaningless while an Obama one is. Fail.
Rasmussen would move into O’s area today. R +2. Fail.
Keep spinning turd. You’re doing a great job!
wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Don’t forget that Gumby also a gleefully predicted back in the spring that Scott Walker had zero chance of surviving the recall election. Gumby just isn’t very good with the political analysis and predictions. Gumby, an Obama supporter, confuses his fantasies and hopes with reality. It is really quite sad to read his daily comments. The guy is a walking joke. One hopes that Gumby will be able to cope and move on after Obama’s inevitable loss to Romney.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:13 AM

RuPoll feverishly looking for new polling data to point to an Obama landslide that no one else sees.

Will return to regular programming shortly.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:13 AM

0 will win 18 states, OH will not be amongst them.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

The more voters see Mitt unfiltered in the debates, the more they support him. The exact opposite is true for Obama. Bring on the third debate!

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Romney has looked Presidential during those debates. The rat-eared wonder has been erratic and childish. Except for two events, Romney is off the campaign trail to get ready for the third debate. I’ve got to wonder what Obama is doing with his weekend.

Happy Nomad on October 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

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