Obama only at 44% in auto-bailout Michigan?

posted at 11:21 am on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Usually, an incumbent who can’t get to 50% in pre-election polling is in trouble.  An incumbent who can’t get to 45% is almost certain to lose, especially with less than three weeks to go, as undecideds are already disinclined to support the candidate they know best.  What does it mean when a poll from a firm linked to Democrats in a key Democratic state can’t produce anything better than 44% for a Democratic incumbent and a virtual tie with a Republican challenger?

Disaster:

Released Wednesday, the poll of 600 likely voters showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan, 44.2 percent to 40.5 percent, but Romney also within the sampling error of 4 percentage points — meaning it’s a tight race. …

The research also revealed a significant swelling of support among Republicans for Romney. In the latest survey, 44 percent of Republicans said they were very excited to vote for the Michigan native, compared to 16 percent in the June survey, before Romney was formally nominated by his party.

By contrast, 48 percent of Democrats reported being very excited to vote for Obama, up from 39 percent in June.

Who conducted the poll?  That’s also an interesting story, emphasis mine:

The poll was conducted by the Michigan polling firm Denno Research and commissioned by Grand Rapids-based Lambert, Edwards & Associates, which also has offices in Lansing. Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research, also is chief of staff to state Sen. Virgil Smith Jr., D-Detroit.

In other words, this isn’t exactly an independent firm.

The gap in this case is about in line with previous polling in Michigan, where Obama has a 4.4-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average.  However, it’s the lowest level of committed support for Obama in the past three weeks.  Prior to that, Obama had a double-digit lead in RCP’s Michigan average for a good part of September.  This could therefore be an outlier — but if so, then the Democrat for whom the pollster works should find himself another chief of staff.

There is another telling point in the data.  Romney leads among independents by six points at 36/30, although a third remain undecided.  Undecideds usually break sharply away from the incumbent in the final weeks of an election, especially when the incumbent isn’t providing any real case for a second term in the midst of economic stagnation.  In 2008, Obama won Michigan by 16 points, 57/41, and won independents by ten, 52/42.  If Republicans pick up most of the independents still undecided and reduce the 12-point turnout advantage Democrats had in 2008, Romney could win this state — and that would all but close out Obama’s hopes for a second term.


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Debbie Stabbenow will bring them in.

acyl72 on October 18, 2012 at 11:23 AM

This can’t be right. I’m going to wait for gummypokee to tell me what to think.

Lost in Jersey on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Obama needs to spend money in Michigan, don’tcha think?

txmomof6 on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

3,2,1,cue the tedious claymation one……….

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Fake poll. Done over 32 minutes ago! With an R+27 sample! Actually taken from Oklahoma! By a crazy right-wing… aide to um Virgil Smith, huh? Crap… Well he was always a DINO!

/clay pieces of goo from the ’60s

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

They did note the poll was conducted before the debate on Tuesday, but we don’t even know if any bump(a real one, not one from further skewed polls) is coming for Obama. So if this holds up for another couple weeks, Romney could steal this state. 44% is a horrible place for an incumbent to be, cuz those undecideds ain’t gonna break for Gary Johnson.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Reality…what a concept.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

there are several pro-dem ballot measures, including a union one, that will ensure turnout is high. It’s fools’ gold.

schmitty on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Maybe the Michiganders recognize that the “auto” bailout (or more accurately, the UAW bailout), was only a temporary fix — and one that is ultimately going to cost them (and their kids and grandkids) far more than it was worth.

AZCoyote on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Wondered how long it would take HA to start a thread on this poll.

Really don’t know what to make of it. Is it an outlier. Is it a tease to pull Romney money and time away from Ohio? Or is it reality?

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Wait, gumby wasn’t actually the first one in here for a change. A little off the mark, huh? Taking a potty break, maybe?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Fool’s gold. If Romney wins Michigan he’ll win closer states like Ohio too, in which case he won’t need Michigan. It would be stupid for him to spend much money there.

Jon0815 on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Sometimes I wonder if the Dem’s are just screwing with us- trying to give us a false sense of security. I’m sounding like Allahpundit, aren’t I?

BettyRuth on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Another day, another set of bad polls for Obama. Things are looking very bad for Obama. The Obama campaign is out of steam and running out of time. Where Obama is not stalled in the polls, he is losing support. Romney, on the other hand, is finishing strong.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Poor gumby posted this excitedly, believing it to be good news for his team.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:28 AM

and that would all but close out Obama’s hopes for a second term.

If he lost Michigan, he would being losing other states as well like Pennsylvania which means by the time Michigan’s results were known it wouldn’t matter.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Buncha racists.

trigon on October 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM

3,2,1,cue the tedious claymation one……….

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM

A321 went bankrupt… Just like the hippy you allude to…

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Eh… seems like kind of an outlier for now.

Red Cloud on October 18, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I will be astounded if MI and/or PA go for Mitt in the end. The donks have too much leverage. I would be happy to be wrong.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Really don’t know what to make of it. Is it an outlier. Is it a tease to pull Romney money and time away from Ohio? Or is it reality?

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

It may also be the local Dems trying to sound a wake-up call. But I think these numbers could be real.

The thing is, I think Michigan is like PA – just out of our reach. If I had to pick one state other than Obama’s four “firewalls,” it’d be WI where we have a good shot at taking it with the momentum from the recall election.

Doomberg on October 18, 2012 at 11:30 AM

One week before the election, expect to see Romney ahead in MI, OH, and PA, and should he take only 2 of 3 of these, Obama’s gone, gone, gone in a Carteresque landslide.

TXUS on October 18, 2012 at 11:30 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Rasmussen poll in NC only has Romney up 6, 52-46. But telling #s are a D+11 sample (was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04) and Romney up 23 w/ indys.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I need more here. The UAW has the damn day off as a holiday for god’s sake. I would like to believe an under 45% support number meant something as it normally should, but not here – I can see PA before MI.

Zomcon JEM on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

The fact that MI is even remotely close spells doom for Obama.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Sometimes I wonder if the Dem’s are just screwing with us- trying to give us a false sense of security. I’m sounding like Allahpundit, aren’t I?

BettyRuth on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I think you must be referring to allahpundit’s evil drunken twin brother… Eeyorepundit…

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Fool’s gold. If Romney wins Michigan he’ll win closer states like Ohio too, in which case he won’t need Michigan. It would be stupid for him to spend much money there.

Jon0815 on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I disagree. Ohio has been trending blue. Michigan has GOP controlled house, senate and governor. Ohio voted by referendum for PEU collective bargaining – I bet Michigan will vote it down.

Clark1 on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Wait, gumby wasn’t actually the first one in here for a change. A little off the mark, huh? Taking a potty break, maybe?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

He’s listening to ‘Revolution #9′ backwards, trying to get a clue.

Jocundus on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

We’rer taking about Michigan, thread-jacker.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 11:33 AM

If Obama is only at 44% in MI he is going to lose MI.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Portrait of Barky, November 7, 2012

UltimateBob on October 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I disagree. Ohio has been trending blue. Michigan has GOP controlled house, senate and governor. Ohio voted by referendum for PEU collective bargaining – I bet Michigan will vote it down.

Clark1 on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

The PEU collective bargaining referendum went down only because the ads made everyone think that fire departments would close over the law.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

There are a lot of hard-working Americans up in Michigan. They want to see the economy come back, also.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

So dumby you think being up by 6 with a D +11 sample is bad for Romney?

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Never underestimate the ability of union trash to kick the rest of the nation in the teeth in an effort to keep themselves solvent. The UAW would demolish anyone if it meant their breadbasket stayed filled.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Sometimes I wonder if the Dem’s are just screwing with us- trying to give us a false sense of security. I’m sounding like Allahpundit, aren’t I?

BettyRuth on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Doubtful. Putting out fake polls for states like MI is crazy. It would make it seem like Mitt is inevitable which would excite Republicans and depress Dems. Not exactly the best idea when early voting is underway.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Should we start referring to the old guard establishment moderate Republicans as DINO’s?

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 11:37 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Rasmussen poll in NC only has Romney up 6, 52-46. But telling #s are a D+11 sample (was D+11 in 08, R+1 in 04) and Romney up 23 w/ indys.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM

More great news for Romney, as is this MI poll.

You probably should learn how polls work if your ambitions are to be a professional poll-troll.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Restore Our Future is up in Michigan; my recollection is that they have responsibility for MI and WI; American Crossroads for the other swing states.

Bottom line: have to accelerate the buy in Michigan, force Obama to spend money on defense. DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

matthew8787 on October 18, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Ruh roh

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM

So dumby you think being up by 6 with a D +11 sample is bad for Romney?

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:35 AM

No kidding. Did someone hack jame gumb’s account? He/she/it is posting really good poll results for Romney under the pretense that they’re bad.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Meanwhile, Jeff Dobbs takes a similar look at North Carolina, and finds:

Total Votes: 50,674

Dem: 13,887 – 27.4%

Rep: 27,455 – 54.2%

Unaffiliated: 9,255 – 18.3%

Libertarian: 77 – 0.2%

Compare that with 2008:

Dem: 51.4%

Rep: 30.2%

Other: 18.5%

He concludes, “The 2012 numbers are breakouts by registration, not by vote cast (of course, you can’t vote for unaffiliated!). But certainly if some assumptions are made — it appears there has been a complete flip of the parties, at least at this point. But we are in the early part of early voting.”

Link

So Rasmussen’s D+11 is looking pretty silly in NC. TN is showing the same massive shift to R.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Sometimes I wonder if the Dem’s are just screwing with us- trying to give us a false sense of security. I’m sounding like Allahpundit, aren’t I?

No .. i think it’s local dems sounding the alarm. they dont’ want to get caught holding the bag if Obama underperforms. They’re worried about being dragged down. IF the top of the ticket is that bad, it can sink you down ballot.

NoVAHockey on October 18, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I live in SW Michigan and the ONLY Omama signs i see are basically in front of the very wealthy beach houses of the Illinois elite class who vacation here. Axelrod is a frequent visitor to this area. People here are HURTING. No one is speaking in public about their feelings for fear of reprisals. The unspoken current here is a landslide for Romney.

HelloLiberty on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Gloria allerd is brewing something up. If thats a sign of Obama losing you know he’s toast

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Obama’s debate performance will keep most of the liberal base intact, so I don’t expect Romney to take states like MI or PA.

SAZMD on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Here lies Obama, a disaster. And he lies.

/Tombstone epitaph

SparkPlug on October 18, 2012 at 11:43 AM

You probably should learn how polls work if your ambitions are to be a professional poll-troll.

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I think he’s broken.

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Has anyone, subtly, announced that despite all the bailout cash and the lost ‘investment’ that GM is still heading straight into insolvency again?

OBL’s dead but folks, we kept GM on life support for a few years.

Forward!

CorporatePiggy on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Gloria allerd is brewing something up. If thats a sign of Obama losing you know he’s toast

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

?

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM

AS a MI resident I can tell you we are working hard here to defeat BO! Door walking and phone calls numbers are way above what was done for McCain! Go Mitt

Bullhead on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM

My dream map…

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KFJ

budfox on October 18, 2012 at 11:45 AM

As a Michigander, I am skeptical. This is a state that is on the verge of sending Sen. Debbie Stabenow to a third term, RE-elected Jennifer Granholm, Detroit re-elected Kwame Kilpatrick as mayor when his problems were obvious (currently on trial for corruption) and Matt Millen once got a contract extension as Lion GM.

We are known for blindly supporting incompetence.

jjjdad on October 18, 2012 at 11:46 AM

The anecdotal evidence continues to pile up. There is a MASSIVE undercurrent that the left has ignored/missed.

I’m not on the ‘landslide’ bandwagon, and still fear Obama may sneak this out – if the left couldn’t unseat an unpopular incumbent in 2004, can the right do it in 2012? – but there seems to be a tidal wave building here that is going to be much more massive than people (political pessimists like myself) ever saw coming.

Washington Nearsider on October 18, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Obama loses 18 point lead on women voters

Three Reasons Why Obama Is Losing The Women’s Vote

Rovin on October 18, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Gloria allerd is brewing something up. If thats a sign of Obama losing you know he’s toast

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

?

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM

MATT DRUDGEVerified‏@DRUDGE

Here she comes. Hearing Gloria Allred out there again, about to make a move. After all, it’s her time of the campaign. Team O at the ready!!

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:48 AM

18 states is the best 0 will do.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Here she comes. Hearing Gloria Allred out there again, about to make a move. After all, it’s her time of the campaign. Team O at the ready!!

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:48 AM

That sounds more like it would be against Romney. Allred is a Lib…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Here she comes. Hearing Gloria Allred out there again, about to make a move. After all, it’s her time of the campaign. Team O at the ready!!

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:48 AM

That sounds more like it would be against Romney. Allred is a Lib…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Yes thats the point I am making, they are going to try to get Obama back up chicago style

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Those coal-fired Volts aren’t selling much in inner-city Detroit I guess.

Don L on October 18, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Glad to see the polls are starting to lean Romney, in spite of the large “D” oversampling…

Khun Joe on October 18, 2012 at 11:53 AM

I will be astounded if MI and/or PA go for Mitt in the end. The donks have too much leverage. I would be happy to be wrong.

a capella on October 18, 2012 at 11:30 AM

If that were true, Mich would not have a Repub. Gov, House and Senate.

There are six Constitutional amendments on the ballot as well. Two are power grabs by the union, one power grab by “clean” energy. One by a private international bridge owner trying to block construction of a government build international bridge,one a taxing issue and one to void the emergency manager law. None are polling over 50% in favor, hopefully all get defeated.

Cannot decide if these amendments will drive more for or against them to the polls

Animal60 on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

This just shows that its time for Team Romney to end this. Obama has basically conceded Virginia, Florida and NC. Now, make them bleed by expanding the playing field.

Start spending money in NJ, CT, OR, MI, and PA. Force them to defend those states, and abandon Iowa, NH, and Colorado. That will guarantee that Romney wins by winning either WI, OH or NV. And maybe he can pull out MI or maybe even PA, and make those 3 states moot.

Regardless, by stretching Obama thin, nothing but good things will happen.

milcus on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Cautiously optimistic about this state

Dont get cocky just yet

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

That sounds more like it would be against Romney. Allred is a Lib…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:50 AM

It would be. But it’s also a sign of desperation. If Obama tries to smear his way back into office this late in the game, it’s gonna blow up in his face.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

I ran across this interesting article linked at UnSkewed Polls. It could explain why Rasmussen has all of the sudden started looking like an Obama fluffer compared to Gallup.

(Not entirely on topic, but who cares? Polls is polls.)

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

It would be. But it’s also a sign of desperation. If Obama tries to smear his way back into office this late in the game, it’s gonna blow up in his face.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Yeah, but remember what she did to Meg Whitman in Ca. Ended her campaign with that poor mistreated Maid. This can’t be good…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

No kidding. Did someone hack jame gumb’s account? He/she/it is posting really good poll results for Romney under the pretense that they’re bad.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Perhaps it is the most favorable poll for Obama he can find today.
Gumby tears are so sweet.

Aviator on October 18, 2012 at 11:56 AM

My dream map…

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KFJ

budfox on October 18, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Nice, but I still prefer this one…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:57 AM

This should not be a surprise. The number of people actually employed in the UAW shrinks every year. The rest of the people of Michigan are probably just as tired of the greedy UAW’s sense of entitlement as we are. Why should their tax money keep bailing out those lazy elitist sods?

I would not be surprised to find that their own neighbors think this way, though they won’t say it to the face of the slovenly union thugs.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Beware red herrings with these polls.

There’s a good chance this is a rope-a-dope poll to draw Mitten’s media money into a never-gonna-happen state.

You can never be too cynical.

Bruno Strozek on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Yeah, but remember what she did to Meg Whitman in Ca. Ended her campaign with that poor mistreated Maid. This can’t be good…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Yes remember its your guilty till proven innocent with the press and libs

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Yeah, but remember what she did to Meg Whitman in Ca. Ended her campaign with that poor mistreated Maid. This can’t be good…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 11:55 AM

That was California. Meg Whitman was an underdog from day one regardless. And she didn’t have the national platform that Mitt Romney would have to respond to any smear tactics.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

18 states is the best 0 will do.

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I currently have him at 17 (including D.C.) with leaners and toss-ups included.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Romney needs to expand the map at least on a superficial level and force the Obama campaign to spread their resources.

Wigglesworth on October 18, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Romney’s “only” up 23 points with Indies in North Carolina, which voted for Obama in 2008.

Nagasaki, I tell ya, Nagasaki!

He is sooooooooooooooooooooooo toast.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 11:59 AM

A big difference from 2008, all these swing states have Republican governors now. VA, OH, MI, PA, WI.

monalisa on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

This just shows that its time for Team Romney to end this. Obama has basically conceded Virginia, Florida and NC. Now, make them bleed by expanding the playing field.

Start spending money in NJ, CT, OR, MI, and PA. Force them to defend those states, and abandon Iowa, NH, and Colorado. That will guarantee that Romney wins by winning either WI, OH or NV. And maybe he can pull out MI or maybe even PA, and make those 3 states moot.

Regardless, by stretching Obama thin, nothing but good things will happen.

milcus on October 18, 2012 at 11:54 AM

There’s word that Romney is probably going to start shifting resources from NC to at least MI and PA, perhaps others.

changer1701 on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

As a Michigander, I am skeptical. This is a state that is on the verge of sending Sen. Debbie Stabenow to a third term, RE-elected Jennifer Granholm, Detroit re-elected Kwame Kilpatrick as mayor when his problems were obvious (currently on trial for corruption) and Matt Millen once got a contract extension as Lion GM.

We are known for blindly supporting incompetence.

jjjdad on October 18, 2012 at 11:46 AM

I live in Michigan as well, and have never understood the attraction of Stabenow. I can understand how the empty skirt Granholm got elected twice, with the pathetic candidates that the Repub. establishment ran against her. Detroit – well the only voters left in Detroit are those too dumb or clueless to earn enough to be able to afford to move out.

Regarding the Lions…..the common denominator in all the years of failure is the owner

Animal60 on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

That was California. Meg Whitman was an underdog from day one regardless. And she didn’t have the national platform that Mitt Romney would have to respond to any smear tactics.

Doughboy on October 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Hope you’re right. I live in Ca. and Whitman was actually doing pretty good till Allred stepped in… Hope Romney is on top of this…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Wait, gumby wasn’t actually the first one in here for a change. A little off the mark, huh? Taking a potty break, maybe?

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Mom made mac and cheese for lunch, and you have to get to that when it’s hot or else.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 12:01 PM

jjjdad–I am counting on Oakland co to carry for Mitt. You have to win Oakland in any election to win Also hoping those Reagan dems from Macomb county will come back to our party . Keep the faith!! go to victory centers and work

Bullhead on October 18, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Here she comes. Hearing Gloria Allred out there again, about to make a move. After all, it’s her time of the campaign. Team O at the ready!!

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:48 AM

There’s always the chance they can find some batch like Anita Hill to lie for the cause.

Has Nicky Diaz been deported yet?

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 12:03 PM

BTW, two polls out today show Berkley getting crushed in Nevada. How is Berkley being destroyed, but Nevada is still considered to be in the Obama column?

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Here she comes. Hearing Gloria Allred out there again, about to make a move. After all, it’s her time of the campaign. Team O at the ready!!

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 11:48 AM

We knew if obama was cornered they were going to go all out to try and take Romney down. Between this and that alleged october surprise here it comes…

sandee on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

A big difference from 2008, all these swing states have Republican governors now. VA, OH, MI, PA, WI.

monalisa on October 18, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Means little. Who are their secretaries of state and did Soros money buy their election?

Don L on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Well I heard several weeks ago that many of the GM bondholders in Michigan are pretty pissed off with Obama and his bailout. Could the chickens be coming home to roost?

COgirl on October 18, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Watch out. Mika got into it with Scarborough this morning about ‘Bindergate’. They are pumping the whole ‘binder’ thing to keep it in the media cycle. Now rumors of Allred. They’re scheming up something.

Conservative4ev on October 18, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Means little. Who are their secretaries of state and did Soros money buy their election?

Don L on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Mich has a Repub. SoS

Animal60 on October 18, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Soledad O’Brien seems to think Obama is up 15 in Virginia. (Warning politico link)

midgeorgian on October 18, 2012 at 12:08 PM

I live in SW Michigan and the ONLY Omama signs i see are basically in front of the very wealthy beach houses of the Illinois elite class who vacation here. Axelrod is a frequent visitor to this area. People here are HURTING. No one is speaking in public about their feelings for fear of reprisals. The unspoken current here is a landslide for Romney.

HelloLiberty on October 18, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I do too. the only one I’ve 0 sign is way up by the front door of the house, away from the road.

ConservativeLawStudent on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

I do too. the only one I’ve 0 sign is way up by the front door of the house, away from the road.

ConservativeLawStudent on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

DERP

The only 0 sign I’ve seen…

ConservativeLawStudent on October 18, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Really don’t know what to make of it. Is it an outlier. Is it a tease to pull Romney money and time away from Ohio? Or is it reality?
bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I read a few days ago Obama is the one moving resources out of MI, to OH of course.

Fool’s gold. If Romney wins Michigan he’ll win closer states like Ohio too, in which case he won’t need Michigan. It would be stupid for him to spend much money there.
Jon0815 on October 18, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Basically because of this. Even with the huge improvement in MI Romney is still down about 5, he’s down about 2 in OH and that includes very iffy polls (D +11 seriously NBC?). If Romney gets MI he’ll already have won OH.

I do think he should take the opportunity to snatch Michigan and help rebuild it into a core Republican state like it used to be a few decades ago.

I disagree. Ohio has been trending blue. Michigan has GOP controlled house, senate and governor. Ohio voted by referendum for PEU collective bargaining – I bet Michigan will vote it down.
Clark1 on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

This is apparently news to you, Ohio has a GOP house, senate, and governor. Ohio also has all statewide elected offices held by the GOP. 13 of Ohio’s 18 current representatives are Republican, a Republican was elected by over 20 pts in 2010 to the Senate and this year the incumbent Democrat is barely leading a young relatively unknown Republican. True Issue 2 was voted down but the reason was it didn’t exempt police, firefighters, and nurses like Scott Walkers PEU reforms did. Kasich had wanted it to but an intransigent state senator prevented it.

I can’t find who noted it, but the state was inundated with union money running ads saying your house would burn down because there’d fire departments would close, there was an ad of a woman crying and begging a 911 dispatcher to send the police because there was an intruder in her house. The dispatcher tells her that thanks to PEU reforms there aren’t enough police, just lock yourself in the closet. It was beyond belief. Anyways, Michigan has a terrible referendum that would guarantee the right of unions for every worker in the state up for a vote and it is up 2:1 in the polls so so much for that argument.

jarodea on October 18, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I live in Michigan, just outside of Detroit.

The Romney lawn signs are beating the Obama one by a margin of almost 4-1.

GadsdenRattlers on October 18, 2012 at 12:20 PM

I disagree. Ohio has been trending blue. Michigan has GOP controlled house, senate and governor. Ohio voted by referendum for PEU collective bargaining – I bet Michigan will vote it down.

Clark1 on October 18, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Ohio has a GOP controlled house, senate, and governor as well.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 18, 2012 at 12:22 PM

While the Obama administration continues to “cook the books” to provide misleading unemployment statistics, and continues promote the false claim that he “saved jobs” via the government takeover of GM and Chrysler, it is impossible to hide the massive job loss in MI.

Could this be the reason Obama continues to lose ground in MI???

landlines on October 18, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Binders, people. Binders.

RedNewEnglander on October 18, 2012 at 12:25 PM

“I do think he should take the opportunity to snatch Michigan and help rebuild it into a core Republican state like it used to be a few decades ago.”

Exactly. Obama is in trouble now* because he didn’t work to expand his map. He’s been playing a defensive game and it’s costing him. You want a fight on their half of the 50 as much as possible. and you do that by turning purple states red and blue states purple.

*policies/results aside. speaking purely electoral strategy

NoVAHockey on October 18, 2012 at 12:26 PM

As a Michigander, I am skeptical. This is a state that is on the verge of sending Sen. Debbie Stabenow to a third term, RE-elected Jennifer Granholm, Detroit re-elected Kwame Kilpatrick as mayor when his problems were obvious (currently on trial for corruption) and Matt Millen once got a contract extension as Lion GM.

We are known for blindly supporting incompetence.

jjjdad on October 18, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Debbie Stabenow – Probably but by what margin. Hoekstra got it close a few weeks ago but a couple small polls by firms I haven’t heard of have massive Stabenow leads. Not much polling in general, he could benefit from a Romney effort.

Jennifer Granholm – True but that same state had elected Engler to 4 terms (I think it was) before her and Snyder after.

Kwame Kilpatrick – Detroit gonna be Detroit. Even TX has some craziness in Dallas and GA in Atlanta, can’t hold all of MI responsable for Detroit. Also, at the rate it’s shrinking it won’t be the largest city in MI or even in its own metro area in a decade or 2.

jarodea on October 18, 2012 at 12:28 PM

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