Obama only at 44% in auto-bailout Michigan?

posted at 11:21 am on October 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Usually, an incumbent who can’t get to 50% in pre-election polling is in trouble.  An incumbent who can’t get to 45% is almost certain to lose, especially with less than three weeks to go, as undecideds are already disinclined to support the candidate they know best.  What does it mean when a poll from a firm linked to Democrats in a key Democratic state can’t produce anything better than 44% for a Democratic incumbent and a virtual tie with a Republican challenger?


Released Wednesday, the poll of 600 likely voters showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan, 44.2 percent to 40.5 percent, but Romney also within the sampling error of 4 percentage points — meaning it’s a tight race. …

The research also revealed a significant swelling of support among Republicans for Romney. In the latest survey, 44 percent of Republicans said they were very excited to vote for the Michigan native, compared to 16 percent in the June survey, before Romney was formally nominated by his party.

By contrast, 48 percent of Democrats reported being very excited to vote for Obama, up from 39 percent in June.

Who conducted the poll?  That’s also an interesting story, emphasis mine:

The poll was conducted by the Michigan polling firm Denno Research and commissioned by Grand Rapids-based Lambert, Edwards & Associates, which also has offices in Lansing. Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research, also is chief of staff to state Sen. Virgil Smith Jr., D-Detroit.

In other words, this isn’t exactly an independent firm.

The gap in this case is about in line with previous polling in Michigan, where Obama has a 4.4-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average.  However, it’s the lowest level of committed support for Obama in the past three weeks.  Prior to that, Obama had a double-digit lead in RCP’s Michigan average for a good part of September.  This could therefore be an outlier — but if so, then the Democrat for whom the pollster works should find himself another chief of staff.

There is another telling point in the data.  Romney leads among independents by six points at 36/30, although a third remain undecided.  Undecideds usually break sharply away from the incumbent in the final weeks of an election, especially when the incumbent isn’t providing any real case for a second term in the midst of economic stagnation.  In 2008, Obama won Michigan by 16 points, 57/41, and won independents by ten, 52/42.  If Republicans pick up most of the independents still undecided and reduce the 12-point turnout advantage Democrats had in 2008, Romney could win this state — and that would all but close out Obama’s hopes for a second term.

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Romney would be wise to put SOME money into Michigan, but not a ton. Because for every dollar Romney spends there Obama will have to spend close to 2 to negate the effect and try to shore up the state for himself, thus leaving less for states like colorado, nevada and ohio. The same is true in Pennsylvania.

IF by some chance Romney steals Penn or Michigan it is a huge coup – and probably means he won in something of a landslide. (by modern defnitions)

WashingtonsWake on October 18, 2012 at 12:29 PM

uh O !!!!

and Hopey hasnt been to Oiho almost 30 TIMES because Alxefraud thinks its a Dem lock.


FlaMurph on October 18, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Never underestimate the ability of union trash to kick the rest of the nation in the teeth in an effort to keep themselves solvent. The UAW would demolish(ed) anyone everyone if it meant their and kept their breadbasket stayed filled.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 11:36 AM

FIFY Bish.

Tenwheeler on October 18, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Ed, what’s the sample? Is this another D+9 or D+12 deal?

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 12:33 PM

i worry about Ohio
(least I can soekk it)

losarkos on October 18, 2012 at 12:36 PM

spell, lol

losarkos on October 18, 2012 at 12:37 PM

but there seems to be a tidal wave building here that is going to be much more massive than people (political pessimists like myself) ever saw coming.

Washington Nearsider on October 18, 2012 at 11:46 AM

That’s what I am seeing. It will gather momentum.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Maybe the last debate Romney simply addresses the audience- including and especially the TV audience, and ignore Obama except for the occasional “there he goes again” line.

Use the time to seal the deal with America while Obama continues to attack him. Who would you vote for then?

Just mostly ignore Obama, Mitt. He brings nothing to the debate. The job is to sell yourself to the country, not roll in the mud with a peevish, arrogant ass.

MarkT on October 18, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Waiting for the news reports of busloads of “voters” showing up to vote.

MarkT on October 18, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Yeah, Deeee-troit is doing so well under the Obamassiah and the rest of the Democratic leadership.

GarandFan on October 18, 2012 at 12:39 PM

I’m so sick of people on our side saying “this election is going to be very, very close”. Folks, if that turns out to be the case, then I’ll be really worried. It’s because I’m confident that Romney will win that I’m also confident that he’ll win by wide margins.

I think the disillusionment with Obama and the way the media have promoted and protected him is huge. I’m still holding out hope for a repeat of ’72 or ’84. I’d settle for a repeat of ’80, but I’m still holding out hope that Romney will take the entire Northeast (save for Vermont) and the entire West Coast. I even think that Illinois is in play. The only states that are safe for Obama right now are Maryland, Vermont, D.C, and maybe Hawaii.

Call me a nut, but that’s what’s in my gut.

ardenenoch on October 18, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Maybe the last debate Romney simply addresses the audience- including and especially the TV audience, and ignore Obama except for the occasional “there he goes again” line.

MarkT on October 18, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I’ve been thinking that Obama is setting himself up perfectly to get nailed with that line (directly invoking Reagan), or a variation of it when he keeps going back to the $5 trillion tax cut crap. Could also be in reply to 47% trolling. Either way, Obama is desperate for a knockout, swinging wildly with the most obvious and most absurd attacks, and leaving himself open as a result.

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 1:36 PM

TeaNami incoming, and the progs have closed the shutters, turned off the siren, and ignored the phones and faxes. If they don’t acknowledge it, they think maybe it won’t happen.

Let’s just hope that the storm surge brings a new majority to the Senate, and a supermajority to the House.

Freelancer on October 18, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Re: these later polls — only two words :

Bradley Effect

socalcon on October 18, 2012 at 2:05 PM

President Obama’s lead in Michigan is about to disappear. Former John Kerry supporter and CEO of Chrysler, Lee Iacocca just endorsed Mitt Romney!

politicaljunkie2008 on October 18, 2012 at 3:31 PM

My nephew just drove from Pittsburg to the western part of MI. He drove to Toledo on the turnpike and then turned north into Michigan.

He told me that he saw a tremendously funny billboard near the now closed Jeep plant that said:

President Obama:

We built it
You broke it
We will fix it
You are fired November 6, 2012

And it showed pictures of working type folks. We surmised it was paid for by the pi$$ed off workers who lost their jobs when Obama “fixed” the auto industry.

He said he hardly saw any Obama bumper stickers anywhere in OH or in MI. He even thinks PA is in play.

This is going to be an interesting 3 weeks.

karenhasfreedom on October 18, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Means little. Who are their secretaries of state and did Soros money buy their election?

Don L on October 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM

MI has a GOP Secretary of State.

I queried my city clerk and asked them how they handle absentee ballots. They keep them all locked up and secure and count them at city hall after the polls close. They do not send them out to be included in the precinct tallies at the precinct voting site. I think this process dramatically cuts down opportunities for mischief. I am glad I took the time to find this out, as I mailed my ballot back 2 weeks ago.

karenhasfreedom on October 18, 2012 at 4:00 PM

What? So, Michigan isn’t so happy with the Bankruptcy Obama cut for them? It’s ok, Detroit will never learn. The rest of the State better figure something out, pretty quick, cause Detroit just keeps going from bad to worse and refuses to learn! Keep electing those Libs, the rest of the State has got to be stupid to bail them out, when they won’t change from their Dem & Union led mentality!
Update on:How to take on the Obama Enemy media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 18, 2012 at 4:40 PM