New poll shows Romney ahead in … Pennsylvania? Update: GOP closing early voter gap in Ohio; Update: Romney leads by four in Susquehanna poll of PA

posted at 5:19 pm on October 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Is it worth writing about a poll that appeared suddenly on Twitter, rocked the world of every last conservative who saw it, then was quickly and mysteriously deleted by the pollster? What if the DNC’s communications director screencapped it and started whining about it before he’d even seen the crosstabs? Let’s put it this way: There may or may not be a poll coming soon from Susquehanna showing Romney up 49/45 on The One in the Democratic stronghold of Pennsylvania. Maybe it won’t be published. Maybe it was yanked back because they spotted a flaw in the data at the last second. If it is published, maybe Jay Cost is right that skepticism is in order; Susquehanna’s numbers do tend to tilt Republican according to Sean Trende, although Guy Benson had a nice post about the firm’s track record a week ago. Needless to say, if Romney really does have a lead in Pennsylvania, then I’m thinking the hull has been breached on the good ship Hopenchange and there’s no patching it. We’ll need multiple polls from the state to know if there’s been any tidal shift, but keep an eye out for Susquehanna. If it’s legit, it’s a big one.

Since I can’t give you that right now, how about a pair of new polls showing Romney ahead in … Ohio and Colorado (Update: Old news. See below.):

Romney takes 48 percent support in Ohio, edging President Obama at 47, in the new poll conducted by American Research Group (ARG). It’s the latest survey to show Romney erasing the gender gap. He now trails Obama only 48 to 45 among female voters in the Buckeye State…

And in Colorado, likely voters went for Romney 50 to 46 over Obama, in ARG’s poll. Romney soundly outpaced Obama among female voters in the state, taking 51 percent support against Obama at 45…

Ohio and Colorado are two of the 12 states President Bush won in 2004 that Obama took in 2008. These 12 battleground states will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

Go back to the electoral vote map at RCP that I linked in the last post. If it’s true that Florida is drifting away from the Democrats and Romney comes through in Ohio and Colorado, then he’s at 262 with a slew of swing states available to put him over the top. Virginia alone could do it. So could Wisconsin. And so, of course, could Pennsylvania, although if he wins PA then we’re staring at a Republican landslide, not a 270-268 win.

That’s the good news. The bad news? It seems increasingly likely that we’re going to lose as our VP a guy who thinks American servicemen are serving in Iraq and Iran. Some lean blog content days ahead next year without Joe, my friends.

Update: Turns out that Ohio/Colorado poll news from The Hill was published on October 9, not today. Drat. Note to self: Always check the dates on stories you’ve arrived at from links on Twitter. Apologies for the bad info. Obama’s bounced back a bit in Ohio since that ARG poll but there have been other polls in Colorado since then showing Romney ahead — barely. He’s up two-tenths of a point in the RCP average.

Update: Let me try to redeem this post with some real news:

Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% – a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain’s defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

Republicans are outperforming their voter registration in several of the state’s biggest counties…

Additionally, a Republican National Committee source told CNN that among early voters not identifying with any party, RNC modeling has tagged 30.5% as Romney supporters and 24.9% as Obama supporters.

Update: Ah, and here’s the Susquehanna mystery poll now:

Susquehanna’s automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

“Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.”

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Note that last part. Remember at the debate when O said it’s time for a new assault-weapons ban? The NRA will make sure those western Pennsylvania centrist Democrats know all about it.

Update: One other note: This poll was commissioned by the state GOP.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

If Romney truly leads in PA, then OH is off the table.

Gumby, by the way, this is how a shift in the electoral landscape starts. First a few polls deemed outliers show up, and then they all move as you move from Denial, to Anger, to Bargaining, to…well, you get the idea.

First WI, then MI now PA?

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I see what you did there…

tom on October 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Jay Cost says all Marist polls are worthless. I don;t understand why NBC/WSJ switched to them from Peter Hart. Hart’s a Dem but a pretty honest one. Don’t know why we aren’t seeing any other polling from Iowa and Wisconsin either.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Well I wouldn’t believe a Penn poll commissioned by the State democrats so I’ll pass on this poll.

Zaggs on October 18, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Give me PA and I’ll give you IA all day. Get out and vote as soon as you all can! Just do it!

milemarker2020 on October 18, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Hart’s a Dem but a pretty honest one.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM

You answered your own question.

CableDude on October 18, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Jay Cost says all Marist polls are worthless. I don;t understand why NBC/WSJ switched to them from Peter Hart. Hart’s a Dem but a pretty honest one. Don’t know why we aren’t seeing any other polling from Iowa and Wisconsin either.

rockmom on October 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM

For same reasons that Fox News have turned left since the day long Murdock spent with DoJ and was not charged with the crimes he and his son committed. Price of freedom was pretty cheap.

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 7:27 PM

“If four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal.” I wonder if two killed is optimal. Maybe 11 or 50 is more optimal. Sheesh.

oprockwell on October 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Hello President Romney, bye bye ex-president Obama. I have never, ever, heard an American President be this callous when describing the deaths of other Americans. That hammering you hear is the sound of the last nail being driven in to his political coffin.

bandutski on October 18, 2012 at 7:30 PM

As the polls move more and more Romney’s way soon Gumby the Clown will be telling us about polls of midget pornstars that support Obama by 62 percent or the Romanian vote that Obama is winning by 20 percent.

/

Desperation….lovin’ it!

CW on October 18, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Nicolae Ceausescu.

Romanians had more than enough of backward incompetent socialism with him. Their vote is breaking hard for Romney. Looks like it’s just the midget pornstars left, now…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 7:36 PM

The usefulness of this poll is the sheer panic that Christ Matthews must feel now.

The CBS/NYT better hurry and get that poll with the +13 Dem advantage out that shows Obama up by 4 nationally…….STAT,

Open the eyes of the voters God……amen.

PappyD61 on October 18, 2012 at 7:37 PM

For anyone who’s interested Jay Cost is taking the nuclear option on Marist in his twitter feed. He seems to be getting more pissed and more disparaging of them with every tweet.

http://twitter.com/JayCostTWS

Long Legged MacDaddy on October 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

“We can’t lose. We ARE the 99%!!!”

- Obamabots

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

jaygatz33

It’s a nice poll, and it will be awesome if it turns out to be accurate in the long term, but it’s clearly an outlier at this point.

xblade on October 18, 2012 at 7:43 PM

“Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.”

True, he probably has but I also think a great deal of it is the outroads that Obama has paved. Oops, wait I mean he didn’t build that but he oversaw it while his bailout money did… or something.

Ukiah on October 18, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

I was working at Romney headquarters in Ohio a couple of weeks ago and they were calling people to get out the early vote. They told people that McCain won on election day but lost during the early voting. So, these improved numbers look good.

HellCat on October 18, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I am pretty sure that my Washington State ballot should be in my mailbox tomorrow… either that or they mail it tomorrow… but I will get it in lickety split!…. I liked that… lickety split… nostalgic much?

I am giddy now.

petunia on October 18, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Obama is beginning to look like a loser, and as we all know:

“America loves a winner, and will not tolerate a loser…”

—Pattton

claudius on October 18, 2012 at 7:53 PM

If there was a poll and HA didn’t post about it, would it exist?

ajacksonian on October 18, 2012 at 7:59 PM

The only thing that would be sweeter than a Romney win is a Romney win that is so devastating that it can be predicted days ahead of time.

Sorry for this sadism but watching the liberal squirm over their doom after all the psychological warfare they slimed against us would feel really good.

How about it? Anybody tired of being told by the swarmy left that conservatism was dead and Romney was dead and we had no shot for the last how many months? Anybody up for some panic on the left? I can’t wait to go on to HuffPo and DailyKos and taste the sweetness of them getting their own medicine that THEY have no shot! I can dream and maybe it will happen.

Conan on October 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

For anyone who’s interested Jay Cost is taking the nuclear option on Marist in his twitter feed. He seems to be getting more pissed and more disparaging of them with every tweet.

http://twitter.com/JayCostTWS

Long Legged MacDaddy on October 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Jay doesn’t seem to be impressed by the latest Gallup poll either.

Mitsouko on October 18, 2012 at 8:01 PM

If there was a poll and HA didn’t post about it, would it exist?

ajacksonian on October 18, 2012 at 7:59 PM

There is talk of some Marist poll that I haven’t seen.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 8:02 PM

As an additional note the only thing holding up the roof in Ohio seems to be the amount of negative ads run there against Romney. It isn’t a fortress that can resist the same issues changes everyone else in the country over. I think the difference between Ohio and the rest of us is the Obama machine but it won’t old up to the same reality the rest of the country sees. Be patient, Ohio is just lagging because they are hungover but it will move. If it doesn’t it isn’t a sign it is going to Obama.

Conan on October 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Long Legged MacDaddy on October 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

You’re right. He’s apoplectic!

INC on October 18, 2012 at 8:05 PM

And what’s going to happen in the polls when people hear the Prez tell John Stuart on the Daily Show tonight that the murder of 4 Americans in Libya was “not optimal”? Maybe in O’s opinion losing only 1 would be “optimal”, but four?????, clearly “not optimal”. The man has lost all connection to the real world.

BillyRuffn on October 18, 2012 at 8:07 PM

How about it? Anybody tired of being told by the swarmy left that conservatism was dead and Romney was dead and we had no shot for the last how many months? Anybody up for some panic on the left? I can’t wait to go on to HuffPo and DailyKos and taste the sweetness of them getting their own medicine that THEY have no shot! I can dream and maybe it will happen.

Conan on October 18, 2012 at 8:00 PM

It will be sweet. But we don’t sit on our laurels. We have lots of work to do. We have to stay on top of the government no matter who’s in power. They have to know what we want and we have to drive the agenda.

dukecitygirl on October 18, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Heartache for g&p. Apologies for any redundancy.

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 8:11 PM

I just saw the Marist polls.
They were terrible then, why would they be any better now?

22044 on October 18, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Hey Everyone:

This means that it’s time to PUSH HARDER!!!

Romney/Ryan 2012

Charrrrrrrrrge!

KellyW. on October 18, 2012 at 8:30 PM

And what’s going to happen in the polls when people hear the Prez tell John Stuart on the Daily Show tonight that the murder of 4 Americans in Libya was “not optimal”?

And how are people going to hear about it? Must be nice to have the MSM in your back pocket (when they aren’t on their knees servicing you).

mpthompson on October 18, 2012 at 8:37 PM

If the fate of the nation depends on Ohio, we’re screwed! They vote for the dumbest stuff.

HellCat on October 18, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Long Legged MacDaddy on October 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Makes sense. Marist is a bad joke.

Their poll says that 34% of Iowans have already voted. CAC at Ace checked that number against some random source… like the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office. Turns out that’s about double the actual percentage.

You want propaganda, that’s frickin’ propaganda.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Via RS McCain,

Looks like Mr. Polling and Elections is a Matter of Numbers, Not Opinions has joined the Poll Truther brigade!

I was wondering when we’d get the chance to discredit that smug overfed jackhole permanently. Looks like we got it.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 8:42 PM

i think what your seeing is the anti-vote against Obama by the democrats. The people who lean left or are just in the middle and voted for the parting of the ocean are actually thinking this through this time through. And they are not buying the Binders, Big Birds, and the Big Fu@#@ing deal of the day. Ill take it.

phatfawzi on October 18, 2012 at 8:42 PM

As an additional note the only thing holding up the roof in Ohio seems to be the amount of negative ads run there against Romney.

Rove says Obama has pulled all his negative ads. Can anyone confirm this is true for Ohio too?

Gee, I guess telling voters “Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?” regarding Romney wasn’t such a bright strategy after all.

mpthompson on October 18, 2012 at 8:43 PM

That Tweet that was yanked, was it legit?

SparkPlug on October 18, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Has anyone taken a GOOD look at these Marist polls tonight?

They are somewhere between outright laughable and truly repugnant… especially Iowa.

Less than a week ago ARG conducted a survey that had a quite reasonable voter turnout model with a D +1 advantage. The result? TIE! And (keep this in mind) Romney was leading the President by 4 points among Independents.

And then this week, WeAskAmerica conducted a poll of their own, while an even larger Dem turnout advantage than the Marist poll would show tonight. WAA had a turnout model of D +3. Still reasonable. The result? Obama up by only 3.

But then tonight… Marist comes out with a poll showing a mere D +2 sample size. And do you know what their result was? Obama by 8???!!!!! Are we to believe that Independents, despite Romney carrying them by just under double digits in the rest of the country and 4 points as recently as October 10th, is losing them so badly now in Iowa that the President is carrying the state by a margin just two percentage points lower than what he carried Iowa by in 2008? REALLY???? And this polling firm is to be taken seriously?!

Indy82 on October 18, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Yes it seems to be legit.

Mitt by 4 in PA.

SparkPlug on October 18, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Trende is a liberal pansy and his opinion is worth sh1t. Cost is a different matter.

Jaibones on October 18, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Has anyone taken a GOOD look at these Marist polls tonight?

Indy82 on October 18, 2012 at 8:54 PM

I keep hearing about them but haven’t seen them.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 9:01 PM

I keep hearing about them but haven’t seen them.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Don’t bother. Crap-and-a-half, but the media’s going to milk them dry anyway.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

The Marist Iowa poll over samples early voters by double the actual number. That’s all anyone needs to know about the validity of the poll or lack thereof.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

we’re going to lose as our VP a guy who thinks American servicemen are serving in Iraq and Iran.

The media is just waiting for Biden to misspell potatoe before they jump on this.

jaime on October 18, 2012 at 9:04 PM

FYI, all, C-Span’s got the Al Smith dinner going on. If you want to see Obama fall flat on his face attempting comedy, tune in.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Wife promised me that she’d model her new binders for me, Saturday night, I can’t wait.

Norky on October 18, 2012 at 9:15 PM

FYI, all, C-Span’s got the Al Smith dinner going on. If you want to see Obama fall flat on his face attempting comedy, tune in.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Mitt’s hitting O with some pretty good zingers. The Narcissist in Chief has to be hating this.

Nikkia2112 on October 18, 2012 at 9:17 PM

DAMN! Romney is ripping Zero at the Al Smith dinner. RIPPING HIM! And getting A LOT of laughs. Chrissy Matthews is going to be furious, what with it being all “unconstitutional” and all.

Rational Thought on October 18, 2012 at 9:20 PM

President Romney just gave a HELLUVA speech at the Al Smith dinner. AMAZING!!

Rational Thought on October 18, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Romney: “In the spirit of Sesame Street, the president’s remarks are brought to you by the letter O and the number 16 trillion.”

ZING!

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM

New Survey USA poll of Minnesota..

Obama 50
Romney 40

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Oh, goody. Now we get to watch Zero laugh at his own jokes. He really loves…himself.

Rational Thought on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM

That Tweet that was yanked, was it legit?

SparkPlug on October 18, 2012 at 8:50 PM

If you mean the Susquehanna tweet, yes.

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/259051263331815424

Our latest PA statewide conducted for the state party shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over Obama http://bit.ly/WG09a1

Also this has been put up:

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/259078378416648193

R – 42% D – 48% I – 10% and +/-2.64% Top lines will be on website by tomorrow morning: http://www.susquehannapolling.com

INC on October 18, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Zero cracks on Chrissy’s “thrill up his leg.” Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

Rational Thought on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Epic/MRA poll in MI has O up 6, 52-46. Last poll was O+3 after first debate, was O+10 after DNC. Poll taken day after second debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 PM

That Tweet that was yanked, was it legit?

SparkPlug on October 18, 2012 at 8:50 PM

If you mean the Susquehanna tweet, yes.

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/259051263331815424

Our latest PA statewide conducted for the state party shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over Obama

Also this has been put up:

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/259078378416648193

R – 42% D – 48% I – 10% and +/-2.64% Top lines will be on website by tomorrow morning

INC on October 18, 2012 at 9:27 PM

O’s Honey Boo Boo joke just went over like a lead balloon.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 9:28 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 PM

There’s this river in Egypt that you remind me of.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 9:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Yep, the second shift of the Hotair fake-troll-hit-generator has definitely started. Is it some kind internship?

M240H on October 18, 2012 at 9:30 PM

I see what you did there…

*Clink*

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Gumby do u really think Minnesota matters or Michigan other than being must wins for Obama?

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:39 PM

New Survey USA poll of Minnesota..

Obama 50
Romney 40

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM

The only state that Reagan didn’t win either time. And a state that voted for Jesse Ventura and Al Franken.

Once more with feeling.

CurtZHP on October 18, 2012 at 9:40 PM

It’s a nice poll, and it will be awesome if it turns out to be accurate in the long term, but it’s clearly an outlier at this point.

Keep in mind that D/R/I in 2008 in PA was 44/37/18.

If I was a liberal, I would be a little nervous about these numbers.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 9:40 PM

As the polls move more and more Romney’s way soon Gumby the Clown will be telling us about polls of midget pornstars that support Obama by 62 percent or the Romanian vote that Obama is winning by 20 percent.

/

Desperation….lovin’ it!

CW on October 18, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Nicolae Ceausescu.

Romanians had more than enough of backward incompetent socialism with him. Their vote is breaking hard for Romney. Looks like it’s just the midget pornstars left, now…

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Not if those ‘little people’ pornstars are crankin’ out at least $250,000…

litebeam1 on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 PM

“Gumby do u really think Minnesota matters or Michigan other than being must wins for Obama?

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:39 PM”

Well, everyone got their panties in an uproar that Mrs Biden was going to MN, so there must have been trouble there!

But the big news was the polls that NBC/WSJ/Marist put out showing WI and IA both out of play.

And the partisan split in IA was only D+2, so the sample was good.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:43 PM

The Marist Iowa poll over samples early voters by double the actual number. That’s all anyone needs to know about the validity of the poll or lack thereof.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Given that Dems have outvoted Reps by 15 as of today…yup.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Bob Boeckel “If the Gallup poll is right, it’s over”.

Schadenfreude on October 18, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Sorry, coming in late, but saw this and got a really big grin on my face.

If Boeckel is talking like this, he’s throwing in the towel, and it takes a lot for him to do that…

ccrosby on October 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Still picking and choosing? Typical Gumballs..always runs from the bad Obama polls. Did you know that your precious Marist had a tie going into the 2010 elections?

What happened there?

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Gumby I hear that Obama is killing it in CA…up by 20!

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

No Gumby the big news is the Susquehanna poll in Pa. If Romney wins there it’s over.

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:48 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Epic/MRA poll in MI has O up 6, 52-46. Last poll was O+3 after first debate, was O+10 after DNC. Poll taken day after second debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 PM

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/259091617565249536

SurveyUSA has a new MN poll with Obama up 10, 50-40. Romney up 3 w/ indys. Sample is D+10 (was D+4 in 08, D+3 in 04). Closer than topline.

John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz
@NumbersMuncher why only +10? That hardly seems safe.

:)

@jpodhoretz Well not everyone has the mindset of Marist. Chuck Todd is unimpressed with it only be D+10 though.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 PM

funny that we have an incumbent that banks his re-election on a “War with Women”; American Women that is, but refuses to say War on Terror.

You betcha, they underestimate Flyover Country.

seesalrun2 on October 18, 2012 at 9:55 PM

New Survey USA poll of Minnesota..

Obama 50
Romney 40

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Matched the wrong post. My above comment goes with this one.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 9:57 PM

This is the match for Michigan:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Epic/MRA poll in MI has O up 6, 52-46. Last poll was O+3 after first debate, was O+10 after DNC. Poll taken day after second debate.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 PM

https://twitter.com/DefendoLibertas/status/259095102486634496

@NumbersMuncher Obama won Michigan by 16 points in 2008: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYZBKqemQrU

/ He’s down 10 points.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Curt, I was just going to say this too, only you said it better.

karenhasfreedom on October 18, 2012 at 10:00 PM

pokeylittlegumball,

Any answer yet on how you think Abm Stephens died in that ambush set for him in Bengauzeie.

Did he preform like a good little bus bump for O-hole?

If you got a job working for your lover boy any chance you too would be brave enough now to take the fall for him and walk into a death trap he and Ms Clinton set for others to keep the disscusion off his horible record in office?

Any guess who in the White House ordered these latest BIG ASS GUN RUNING OPERATIONS, hauling stingers into Lybia and not tracking them just like Fast and Furious.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 18, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Gumby you’re so funny. Everyone seems to get a kick out of you.

Say ….how is the Estonian-American vote ?

Show me the pole!!!

Look at the shiny object.

CW on October 18, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Gummy I hear that commie Democrat ideas and actions have already killed California, well rather bankrupted California. I do not like those mean words like kill myself.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 18, 2012 at 10:03 PM

A poll came out in MI today that only has Obama at 44 and Romney at 41. MI is in play.

karenhasfreedom on October 18, 2012 at 10:06 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Screw the polls, look instead at what the candidates are DOING. Obama is pulling out of NC, FL and possibly VA (and it’s not because he’s winning them). Yeah, yeah, I know that Garrett said that Obama’s men have turned “grim” on the states, and didn’t specifically say “pull out” (until he got an angry call from Messina ordering a softening of the language that is) but how else does one interpret “shifting resources”? It’s never positive to move resources from states you’re winning – if you’re upside down (as O currently is) then he’s swiftly moving into firewall mode to negate a landslide. He has his legacy and pride to preserve you see.

Unless it’s discovered that Mitt has a penchant for risque parties that include dwarfs and donkeys, then there is very little that Obama can do to stem the rising Romney tide. Last Tuesday was Obama’s at his very best during the debate, and he still got smoked by the internals. Next weeks debate won’t save him and even if he really showed up there is too little time and too much Romney inertia to swing that many votes.

I personally don’t think that Obama cares whether he wins or not. He’s been phoning it in for months now (if not since 2010). If defeated he gains riches, adulation and a fat Hawaian estate. He also got 90% of what he wanted during his first term and he’s the first black POTUS. Who needs a second term after that?

volnation on October 18, 2012 at 10:15 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012

…D I H A R R E A…!!!

KOOLAID2 on October 18, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Still, I find the Intrade electoral numbers to be disturbing. But of course even that could change soon.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Winning! And they don’t know why… …but WE know why. Because we have the proper ideas, i.e. the ideas consecrated in the Constitution.

Liberty. Freedom.

My favorite quote, from T.J. – “If it neither pick my pocket nor break my leg, I care not.”

The current setup in D.C. plans to and does both, so I Care.

M2RB: Too Late

Who is John Galt on October 18, 2012 at 10:56 PM

If defeated he gains riches, adulation and a fat Hawaian estate.

volnation on October 18, 2012 at 10:15 PM

I dunno. Everthing Obama touches turns to lead. The way he and Michelle handle money, I wouldn’t be surpised if he is the first former president to declare bankruptcy.
..
Investment strategy: Anything Obama invests in, short it.

MichaelGabriel on October 18, 2012 at 11:43 PM

I’ve been driving to work through Philadelphia and its western (i.e., impressively wealthy) ‘burbs daily since 2007. In an area that was blanketed during the ’08 campaign with Obama signs & stickers, while there are a surprising number of Romney signs around, the most shocking thing so far about this election is the near-total absence of visible Obama support — even in the near part of west Philadelphia (a Dem stronghold).

If PA goes for Romney — which feels very plausible here on the ground — then I think it will be largely due to Dem voters simply staying home.

Harpazo on October 19, 2012 at 12:13 AM

Well, everyone got their panties in an uproar that Mrs Biden was going to MN, so there must have been trouble there!

gumbyandpokey

Umm…not everyone. I said at the time that if Minnesota were in play, they would have sent someone with a little more name recognition than Jill Biden. Romney ain’t carrying Minnesota, which makes him like every other Republican presidential candidate. Good news is he doesn’t have to.

Keep in mind that D/R/I in 2008 in PA was 44/37/18.

If I was a liberal, I would be a little nervous about these numbers.

newtopia

Still an obvious outlier at this point. I’ll take it, but I won’t put any money on it, lol.

xblade on October 19, 2012 at 12:27 AM

Actually, Minnesota didn’t “vote” for al-Franken. The Democrats stole that election with massive voter fraud conducted right out in the open with the help of bought-and-paid-for judges.

pdigaudio on October 19, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Jon Stewart didn’t have a response to that, so I imagine he had to look up the word optimal first.

lea on October 19, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4