New poll shows Romney ahead in … Pennsylvania? Update: GOP closing early voter gap in Ohio; Update: Romney leads by four in Susquehanna poll of PA

posted at 5:19 pm on October 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Is it worth writing about a poll that appeared suddenly on Twitter, rocked the world of every last conservative who saw it, then was quickly and mysteriously deleted by the pollster? What if the DNC’s communications director screencapped it and started whining about it before he’d even seen the crosstabs? Let’s put it this way: There may or may not be a poll coming soon from Susquehanna showing Romney up 49/45 on The One in the Democratic stronghold of Pennsylvania. Maybe it won’t be published. Maybe it was yanked back because they spotted a flaw in the data at the last second. If it is published, maybe Jay Cost is right that skepticism is in order; Susquehanna’s numbers do tend to tilt Republican according to Sean Trende, although Guy Benson had a nice post about the firm’s track record a week ago. Needless to say, if Romney really does have a lead in Pennsylvania, then I’m thinking the hull has been breached on the good ship Hopenchange and there’s no patching it. We’ll need multiple polls from the state to know if there’s been any tidal shift, but keep an eye out for Susquehanna. If it’s legit, it’s a big one.

Since I can’t give you that right now, how about a pair of new polls showing Romney ahead in … Ohio and Colorado (Update: Old news. See below.):

Romney takes 48 percent support in Ohio, edging President Obama at 47, in the new poll conducted by American Research Group (ARG). It’s the latest survey to show Romney erasing the gender gap. He now trails Obama only 48 to 45 among female voters in the Buckeye State…

And in Colorado, likely voters went for Romney 50 to 46 over Obama, in ARG’s poll. Romney soundly outpaced Obama among female voters in the state, taking 51 percent support against Obama at 45…

Ohio and Colorado are two of the 12 states President Bush won in 2004 that Obama took in 2008. These 12 battleground states will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

Go back to the electoral vote map at RCP that I linked in the last post. If it’s true that Florida is drifting away from the Democrats and Romney comes through in Ohio and Colorado, then he’s at 262 with a slew of swing states available to put him over the top. Virginia alone could do it. So could Wisconsin. And so, of course, could Pennsylvania, although if he wins PA then we’re staring at a Republican landslide, not a 270-268 win.

That’s the good news. The bad news? It seems increasingly likely that we’re going to lose as our VP a guy who thinks American servicemen are serving in Iraq and Iran. Some lean blog content days ahead next year without Joe, my friends.

Update: Turns out that Ohio/Colorado poll news from The Hill was published on October 9, not today. Drat. Note to self: Always check the dates on stories you’ve arrived at from links on Twitter. Apologies for the bad info. Obama’s bounced back a bit in Ohio since that ARG poll but there have been other polls in Colorado since then showing Romney ahead — barely. He’s up two-tenths of a point in the RCP average.

Update: Let me try to redeem this post with some real news:

Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% – a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain’s defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

Republicans are outperforming their voter registration in several of the state’s biggest counties…

Additionally, a Republican National Committee source told CNN that among early voters not identifying with any party, RNC modeling has tagged 30.5% as Romney supporters and 24.9% as Obama supporters.

Update: Ah, and here’s the Susquehanna mystery poll now:

Susquehanna’s automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

“Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.”

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Note that last part. Remember at the debate when O said it’s time for a new assault-weapons ban? The NRA will make sure those western Pennsylvania centrist Democrats know all about it.

Update: One other note: This poll was commissioned by the state GOP.


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I just can’t shake this horrible feeling that Chicago has something pretty damn ugly up its collective sleeve. I just can’t imagine Axelrod, Plouffe, Valerie and Soros taking defeat quietly.

catsandbooks on October 18, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Of course they have some ghastly tricks up their sleeves! I wouldn’t be at all surprised to hear that Axelgrease is frantically calling all of his ACORN contacts, and defeat? from this group? It’s going to get ugly. Can’t wait for our GalVal to lose her secret service protection.

BettyRuth on October 18, 2012 at 6:30 PM

The Oct. 4-6 SP&R poll showing Romney down 2 points was D 48, R 42, I 10.

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 6:28 PM

I don’t like polls that attempt to pigeonhole everyone into one party or the other.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Ok, if AP’s not going to do it…..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBfjU3_XOaA

Music seems appropriate too….

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Breaking

What jerk, complete @hole.
Not that it’s any surprise.

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

New Marist polls….

Obama +8 in Iowa

Obama +6 in Wisconsin

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

I just can’t shake this horrible feeling that Chicago has something pretty damn ugly up its collective sleeve. I just can’t imagine Axelrod, Plouffe, Valerie and Soros taking defeat quietly.

catsandbooks on October 18, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I mentioned this in the other thread but I’m pretty sure that Team Obama is casing aspirin factories in Syria right now.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

i’m seeing a lot of obama supporters on other sites going “i’m afraid of romney winning! i wanna move to canada”

and the obama campaign is outraged about binders

both of those are good signs.

Sachiko on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Paul Ryan will restore sanity to the Naval Observatory–literally.

Christien on October 18, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Gumby’s probably considering a nice cool bath and a toaster about now.

CW on October 18, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Doesn’t have the balls.
Literally, NO BALLS!
0_o

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:33 PM

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Smartest President EVAH!// What a schmuck.

KCB on October 18, 2012 at 6:34 PM

OPTIMAL????

Oh. Oh. Oh no. Optimal vs. Binders. This man doesn’t give a sh*t about anything or anyone other than his own precious self.

BettyRuth on October 18, 2012 at 6:34 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Well, howdy, Chip Diller! “All is well!”

Kleenex?

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Oct. 11-13: Obama 45, Romney 49 (R+4)

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Ask and I shall receive before I even post. R+4 is probably a bit strong, especially in Pennsylvania.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 6:23 PM

If you go back and read the Guy Benson article AP referenced in the first part of this pol, you’ll see that the pollster has consistently used a D+6 polling model this year. In the Benson article, the pollster (Jim something, forgive me for not remembering the last name) is a PA specialist and has a pretty good track record for PA races.

parke on October 18, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Pennsylvania is a tease. I sure hope the poll is correct.

Decoski on October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Optimal, my hindquarters.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Breaking

What jerk, complete @hole.
Not that it’s any surprise.

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Holy crap. I wonder if Stewart is going to edit that out for him? Actually, I think ‘real’ journalists would be much more likely to do that for the One than Stewart.

forest on October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM

the pollster (Jim something, forgive me for not remembering the last name) is a PA specialist and has a pretty good track record for PA races.

parke on October 18, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Jim Lee.

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

But what about this one honey boo?

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 6:36 PM

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM
‘Extraordinary response’ is a very good description !

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Oops, “first part of this post…, I’ve got polling fever on the brain.

Also, the R+4 cited is the gap between the candidates in the poll results.

parke on October 18, 2012 at 6:36 PM

What jerk, complete @hole.

As you said, it’s not a surprise. He called them bump in the roads before and it didn’t seem to make a difference.

mpthompson on October 18, 2012 at 6:36 PM

I don’t like polls that attempt to pigeonhole everyone into one party or the other.

NotCoach on October 18, 2012 at 6:30 PM

The way I read the question, it was asking for registration, not identification.

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 6:36 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Wrong thread, douche. BTW: Using turnout models for Ds greater than 2008 = wrong.

But I know you’re too stupid to understand that.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Oh and allah:

“or not?”

Change that, dude!

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

If any lefties want to leave I will help you pack. In fact I will provide a large motorcycle escort all the way to the border.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

KCB on October 18, 2012 at 6:34 PM

At least I laugh at Uncle Joe’s stupidity.

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Will that escort be armed?

In case they change their mind.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Forget these polls. Just get out to vote. If you haven’t voted already, what are you waiting for? Vote and you will be happy Nov 6th.

milemarker2020 on October 18, 2012 at 6:39 PM

catsandbooks on October 18, 2012 at 6:18 PM

A reasonable, albeit conditioned, response.
Holding our collective breaths.
Has ANYONE heard anything more about that Drudge tweet about Allred ??
I see nothing.

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 6:40 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Keep holding onto hope, gumballs. Even your heavily skewed D sampled polls will swing to Romney soon as they don’t want to be labeled as inaccurate and biased. Romney landslide is coming and you know it. You’ll come back on election night incognito to save face. Pick a more appropriate nic next time, like “libfail” or something.

Decoski on October 18, 2012 at 6:40 PM

In Iowa, Marist has Obama leading by 35% among those who have already voted.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

If you haven’t voted already, what are you waiting for? Vote and you will be happy Nov 6th.

milemarker2020 on October 18, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Can’t. Early voting doesn’t start in Texas until October 22nd.

As if Texas EV’s are in doubt. Our family will just be adding to the popular vote blowout.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Holy crap. I wonder if Stewart is going to edit that out for him? Actually, I think ‘real’ journalists would be much more likely to do that for the One than Stewart.

forest on October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM

I think under normal circumstances he airs it. He is a liberal, but he is reasonably fair and a little funny. However, it’s up in big red letters on Drudge. He has to air it now.

KCB on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

We must vote like dems. Vote early and vote often. Encourage your deceased relatives and friends to vote. We can do this!!!!!

Off topic. If the so called independents who had not made up their minds are like the 80 plants in the townhall debate, I have absolutely no confidence in polls that count independent voters.

they lie on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

For gumbypoked and other idiots here touting turn out models, here is an excerpt from hillbuzz, as told by black voters and which actually corresponds to the numbers we are beginning to see:

The Think Squad has told me that through the grapevine they’re hearing anecdotes that make them believe that not only will the share of the black vote be less than 11% this time around (from black people staying home) but that more black people than ever before in recent political history will actually be voting either third party or for the Republican. This means that Democrats will receive less than 90% of the black vote…and it means that states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and even Oregon could go to Romney on November 6th.

Read more http://hillbuzz.org/

Amazing read, IMO, that explains what is going on and what the communist media are afraid to say.

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I think what we are really seeing here is reality. Some pollsters acted as if 2010 never happenened and assumed everything was going to be like 2008 as far as turnout. That was a once in a lifetime event-you can only make history voting in the first black pres once. Add in the horrible timing of the economic downturn in 08 and you had the perfect storm.
In 2010 you had a huge backlah to obama and his policies like never before. The dems suffered the bggist defeat in 70+ years-that enthusiasm didn’t just automatically go away, in many respects it got stronger with obama pushing his much-hated obamacare even more. The pollsters are now reflecting the fact that the R’s are more likely to vote in this election.

Ta111 on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

The guys I know wouldn’t need to be armed.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

He [Obama] continued: “We’re going to fix it. All of it. And what happens, during the course of a presidency, is that the government is a big operation and any given time something screws up.

The personal representative of the President of the United States to the government of Libya (and three others) are murdered…and Obama’s response is “it was not optimal” and government is a big operation?

It is a screw up?

That’s it?

How many damn ambassadors do we have?

Personal representatives of the president, mind you.

And how many embassies, consulates and legations have been attacked repeatedly in the weeks and months leading up to 9-11-12?

Bet Obama can tell you in detail what the menu at Beyonce and Jay-z’s Kristal bash was…but can’t seem to recall any details about his own personal representative being murdered?

Was it a spontaneous protest? Late night? Or was it a planned terrorist attack? Pre-plotted mortar positions, heavy weapons?

No…government is too big…

Priorities.

Heartless pompous petulant putz.

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 6:43 PM

You can tell who’s winning by looking at the flagship blogs.

During the Long September, Hot Air was running with Obama’s foibles, gaffes, and analysis of his failures. Daily Kos was crowing about the polls and manicuring their make-work polling spreadsheets.

Look at Hot Air now. Look at Kos now. Put on gloves, though, so you don’t get a paper cut from all the binders.

HitNRun on October 18, 2012 at 6:43 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

You’re flailing.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 6:43 PM

In Iowa, Marist has Obama leading by 35% among those who have already voted.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Hey, dummyandjokey, we still haven’t heard an explanation as to why 2008′s fourteenth-best major media pollster is still estimating 2012 Dem turnout to exceed 2008′s.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Yo, pukey gumbo:


PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight

steebo77 on October 18, 2012 at 6:44 PM

KCB on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

And check out the screen cap!

KCB on October 18, 2012 at 6:44 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Keep sucking those polls, gumballs. You’ve been spanked so hard already. Didn’t you post SUSA polls showing huge returns on ballots in Ohio, yet the sec state of ohio had less than 9%?

Ha ha you’re such a liar.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:44 PM

After saying ‘ why settle for a win, let’s have a landslide !! We need the senate, too !’ , Levin is coverage Zero’s Drudge headline.

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 6:45 PM

If any lefties want to leave I will help you pack. In fact I will provide a large motorcycle escort all the way to the border.

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Nah, just ship them out like this

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

No offense, but don’t ever believe anything HillBuzz has to say. They’re in a total echo chamber and they peddle in delivering false hope to the afflicted.

A bunch of anecdotes is nothing more than a bunch of anecdotes.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Bishop on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Even better.

cozmo on October 18, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Oh and gumby, Marist has a TIED party split in 2010, right before the Democratic slaughter.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US101021/McClatchy/McClatchy_Marist%20Poll_National%20Survey_October%2027,%202010.pdf

Keep humping those bad polls.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:48 PM

NBC has taken beclown to a whole new level this cycle, so I’m sure the D/R/I breaks on the Marist polling will be interesting.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 6:49 PM

PPP tweeting that their Fri poll for IA will be much better for Romney.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp
RT @ppppolls: Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight
Retweeted by benshapiro

NBC/Marist is a joke of a poll. It’s their last effort…any reputation left be damned.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:49 PM

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 6:49 PM

They’re still pushing the same 2008 levels for 2012.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Breaking

What jerk, complete @hole.
Not that it’s any surprise.

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Note the photo that they have in Benghazi of a yute with a gun labeled “a protester”.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 6:51 PM

A bunch of anecdotes is nothing more than a bunch of anecdotes.

KingGold on October 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

So, Hussein renting out a convention hall 3 minutes from his house in Chicago rather than Hyde Park liberals got ready in 2008 is also just a false hope?

I am not saying the guy is correct or not, I have no idea, but his latest seems to correspond with the rather large drop in numbers we’re seeing in the past 2 weeks. Debates or not, that is a huge drop. I think liberals have finally came to realize the gig is up, I am sure they know the numbers much better than we give them credit for, and the higher up are pretty much now admitting defeat.

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
NBC/Marist poll in WI w/ Obama up 6 has a D+5 sample. (In 08 was D+6, in 2010 was D+1 and in recall was R+1)

The sample will not be the same as the recall since students are here, and they are a huge block for Obama. I would guess D+3 will be about right.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Beyonce and Jay-Z .

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 6:43 PM

The real president’s personal representatives

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:53 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Last Marist poll in IA after DNC had O+8. Rasmussen at that time was R+3, PPP (D) was O+2. About the same now… says a lot about Marist.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:53 PM

They’re still pushing the same 2008 levels for 2012.

Unless they have a small sample size over all, their splits are going to be wider than 2008, as there is really no way to justify an IA O+8 unless you really gamed the splits or under polled Is and Rs so severely that you were able to get a good outlier on top of the unjustifiable splits.

newtopia on October 18, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Optimal, my hindquarters.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 6:35 PM

.
Depends on what they decide the real meaning of “Optimal” is.

FlaMurph on October 18, 2012 at 6:54 PM

heh. I just got here.

If Bmore is around, let him know that tonight, ted c’s beer problem has been #fixed.

back to your regular scheduled blogging.

ted c on October 18, 2012 at 6:55 PM

18% of Iowans have voted

Not 34%, 18%. Which means the Marist finding (just like the Ohio one) is horseshit.

CAC

Valkyriepundit on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

That Zero quote on CC is really gonna hurt Oblamo and Stewart will have to run it.

“Not optimal?” The guy is a sociopath. wow just wow….

That will go viral and Zero’s number will really crater.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Guy Benson ‏@guypbenson
Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Derp derp a herp

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

WOW!!

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 6:57 PM

We have 5 early votes for RR including my 86 yr old world war 2 vet father, who is so sick of O that he just calls him “that son of a $/$##”. I hope I can get him to go to bed on election night. He want’s to stay up to the end.

megthered on October 18, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

bwahhaahahaha.

Hey Obama, who’s laughing now, champ???

ted c on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Whoa.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Note the photo that they have in Benghazi of a yute with a gun labeled “a protester”.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2012 at 6:51 PM

As usual we get real news from foreign press and with a little snark.

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

OMG ! They are running away from Obama now !

I’m in Houston and I was all set to go to Cinci and help hamilton county the weekend before the election and i just booked a second flight to Denver the same weekend because at the rate people are running from obama, Ohio may not need my help in 3 weeks.

cougar on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

In the distance, I hear the fat lady warming up.

novaculus on October 18, 2012 at 5:22 PM

..they sent Candy Crowley to 24 Hour Fitness to do some time on the Stair Master?

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

COOLNESS !!

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 7:00 PM

OMG ! They are running away from Obama now !

I’m in Houston and I was all set to go to Cinci and help hamilton county the weekend before the election and i just booked a second flight to Denver the same weekend because at the rate people are running from obama, Ohio may not need my help in 3 weeks.

cougar on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

..your volunteering SPEAKS VOLUMES as to why this state of affairs has come about. That you would FLY TO CINCI from TX says a lot for Romney’s ground game and the enthusiasm of the (R) voters.

Noble effort, by the way! Thanks!

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Drudge has the link up now.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 7:02 PM

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Gonna take a lot more than 24 Hours with that one…and there ain’t a Stairmaster with that kind of capacity.

:-)

coldwarrior on October 18, 2012 at 7:02 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Don’t forget to take your A.mbien on Nov. 6th… It will help you make those important decision on Nov. 7th…

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 7:02 PM

..they sent Candy Crowley to 24 Hour Fitness to do some time on the Stair Master?

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 6:59 PM

they either need a 36hr day, or another dozen stairmasters…../

ted c on October 18, 2012 at 7:03 PM

.they sent Candy Crowley to 24 Hour Fitness to do some time on the Stair Master?

The War Planner on October 18, 2012 at 6:59 PM

No, just as another dumbbell…

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Just spoke to Susquehanna’s chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 – Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

jaygatz33 on October 18, 2012 at 6:56 PM

That is stunning.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 7:04 PM

We have 5 early votes for RR including my 86 yr old world war 2 vet father, who is so sick of O that he just calls him “that son of a $/$##”. I hope I can get him to go to bed on election night. He want’s to stay up to the end.

megthered on October 18, 2012 at 6:57 PM

My wife, who rarely says anything bad about anyone and is very apolitical, calls him a female hygiene product.

CableDude on October 18, 2012 at 7:04 PM

This video is for you, gumby.

wargamer6 on October 18, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Can you stop in Michigan, now, R&R ??
Please ?? Could yield a lot more than some think !!

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 7:06 PM

As the polls move more and more Romney’s way soon Gumby the Clown will be telling us about polls of midget pornstars that support Obama by 62 percent or the Romanian vote that Obama is winning by 20 percent.

/

Desperation….lovin’ it!

CW on October 18, 2012 at 7:07 PM

That CO Univ election model is now more realistic than ever. 330 for R/R. Seems about right…

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Anyone notice in this link, which is interesting all by itself, that NJ is now a pale blue?

CableDude on October 18, 2012 at 7:08 PM

That ‘not optimal’ comment almost as clumsy as ‘binders’ comment
/sarc tag should not be necessary…but just in case.

dont taze me bro on October 18, 2012 at 7:08 PM

That ‘not optimal’ comment almost as clumsy as ‘binders’ comment
/sarc tag should not be necessary…but just in case.

dont taze me bro on October 18, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Yes, in his deranged mind it should have been many more Americans than just four…

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 7:10 PM

What these shock polls are telling us is, with about 2 weeks left to go, Americans have FINALLY decided they don’t want another 4 years of Obama!

Better late than never…..

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 7:10 PM

More success!!!!

Obama’s spending 32 percent more on welfare…he rocks.

CW on October 18, 2012 at 7:11 PM

More success!!!!

Obama’s spending 32 percent more on welfare…he rocks.

CW on October 18, 2012 at 7:11 PM

I am sure when we see the 2012 numbers they will be even more staggering.

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 7:13 PM

polls poles of midget pornstars

CW on October 18, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Yeah, he’s all over that.

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Someone on this thread linked to hillbuzz–I don’t remember who because this thread moved on while I was reading several posts over there.

http://hillbuzz.org/daily-doom-antidote-solid-proof-obama-is-planning-a-concession-speech-event-for-november-6th-election-night-10182012-10182012

This one on Obama’s campaign scheduling McCormick Place for Election Eve was fascinating. I’ve been to McCormick Place years ago to its Lakeside Center, and because of the location on Lake Michigan and Lake Shore Drive, there’s no easy access except by car. As I remember it, it is incredibly isolated, and it seems that hasn’t changed. Hillbuzz’s reasoning that this is a concession-speech venue makes sense.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Marist has had no credibility in a long long time. Plus why bother polling how many people have already voted when you can just check the states number yourself?

The good news is these fake polls seems to be having no effect on actual voting.

mitchellvii on October 18, 2012 at 7:17 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
NBC/Marist poll in WI w/ Obama up 6 has a D+5 sample. (In 08 was D+6, in 2010 was D+1 and in recall was R+1)

The sample will not be the same as the recall since students are here, and they are a huge block for Obama. I would guess D+3 will be about right.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:52 PM

In 2010 there were students there as well and things haven’t exactly become any more rosey in the last 2 years. D+1 is about the best they could hope for.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 18, 2012 at 7:18 PM

riddick on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Found the commenter who linked. Thanks, riddick.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I wouldn’t get to excited about the PA poll. I’ve lived in PA for a long time and most of these nimrods would vote for satan as long as he was running as a democrat. If we could only get rid of Philadelphia this state would always vote republican. Just remember, these are the same people who voted for Linda Thompson and Michael Nutter, possibly the worst two mayors ever elected.

bandutski on October 18, 2012 at 7:19 PM

cougar on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 P

Appreciate ya!

hillsoftx on October 18, 2012 at 7:19 PM

In Iowa, Marist has Obama leading by 35% among those who have already voted.
gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Try 18%

The Count on October 18, 2012 at 7:20 PM

“If four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal.” I wonder if two killed is optimal. Maybe 11 or 50 is more optimal. Sheesh.

oprockwell on October 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

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