New poll shows Romney ahead in … Pennsylvania? Update: GOP closing early voter gap in Ohio; Update: Romney leads by four in Susquehanna poll of PA

posted at 5:19 pm on October 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Is it worth writing about a poll that appeared suddenly on Twitter, rocked the world of every last conservative who saw it, then was quickly and mysteriously deleted by the pollster? What if the DNC’s communications director screencapped it and started whining about it before he’d even seen the crosstabs? Let’s put it this way: There may or may not be a poll coming soon from Susquehanna showing Romney up 49/45 on The One in the Democratic stronghold of Pennsylvania. Maybe it won’t be published. Maybe it was yanked back because they spotted a flaw in the data at the last second. If it is published, maybe Jay Cost is right that skepticism is in order; Susquehanna’s numbers do tend to tilt Republican according to Sean Trende, although Guy Benson had a nice post about the firm’s track record a week ago. Needless to say, if Romney really does have a lead in Pennsylvania, then I’m thinking the hull has been breached on the good ship Hopenchange and there’s no patching it. We’ll need multiple polls from the state to know if there’s been any tidal shift, but keep an eye out for Susquehanna. If it’s legit, it’s a big one.

Since I can’t give you that right now, how about a pair of new polls showing Romney ahead in … Ohio and Colorado (Update: Old news. See below.):

Romney takes 48 percent support in Ohio, edging President Obama at 47, in the new poll conducted by American Research Group (ARG). It’s the latest survey to show Romney erasing the gender gap. He now trails Obama only 48 to 45 among female voters in the Buckeye State…

And in Colorado, likely voters went for Romney 50 to 46 over Obama, in ARG’s poll. Romney soundly outpaced Obama among female voters in the state, taking 51 percent support against Obama at 45…

Ohio and Colorado are two of the 12 states President Bush won in 2004 that Obama took in 2008. These 12 battleground states will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

Go back to the electoral vote map at RCP that I linked in the last post. If it’s true that Florida is drifting away from the Democrats and Romney comes through in Ohio and Colorado, then he’s at 262 with a slew of swing states available to put him over the top. Virginia alone could do it. So could Wisconsin. And so, of course, could Pennsylvania, although if he wins PA then we’re staring at a Republican landslide, not a 270-268 win.

That’s the good news. The bad news? It seems increasingly likely that we’re going to lose as our VP a guy who thinks American servicemen are serving in Iraq and Iran. Some lean blog content days ahead next year without Joe, my friends.

Update: Turns out that Ohio/Colorado poll news from The Hill was published on October 9, not today. Drat. Note to self: Always check the dates on stories you’ve arrived at from links on Twitter. Apologies for the bad info. Obama’s bounced back a bit in Ohio since that ARG poll but there have been other polls in Colorado since then showing Romney ahead — barely. He’s up two-tenths of a point in the RCP average.

Update: Let me try to redeem this post with some real news:

Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% – a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain’s defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

Republicans are outperforming their voter registration in several of the state’s biggest counties…

Additionally, a Republican National Committee source told CNN that among early voters not identifying with any party, RNC modeling has tagged 30.5% as Romney supporters and 24.9% as Obama supporters.

Update: Ah, and here’s the Susquehanna mystery poll now:

Susquehanna’s automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

Lee said Romney has made significant gains in the all-important suburbs of Philadelphia, a ring of counties that helped push Obama to victory in 2008.

“Republicans haven’t been able to do that in 20 years,” Lee said. “Romney has made some major inroads.”

Lee said Romney also gained ground in western Pennsylvania, where socially conservative, blue-collar Democrats have turned their backs on Obama.

Note that last part. Remember at the debate when O said it’s time for a new assault-weapons ban? The NRA will make sure those western Pennsylvania centrist Democrats know all about it.

Update: One other note: This poll was commissioned by the state GOP.


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