AP: Romney camp weighing whether to shift money from NC to bluish states like WI, MI, PA

posted at 4:36 pm on October 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Even more encouraging than the new Gallup numbers, I think, and circumstantial evidence that maybe Major Garrett was right yesterday about Team O preparing to pull back from some swing states. The catch with Gallup’s tracker is that it’s the only national pollster showing anything close to a seven-point lead right now; doesn’t mean they’re wrong, but allegedly even GOP pollsters aren’t picking up a lead like that in their internal numbers. To get a better sense of Romney’s surge, says election guru Sean Trende, follow the (campaign) money: “Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he’d be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn’t spend a dime in FL.”

Let’s follow the money, then. Don’t look now, but according to the AP, Team Mitt’s thinking of advertising in PA and MI:

At the same time, the GOP presidential nominee’s advisers and the Republican National Committee are looking to give Romney more routes to reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. They are weighing whether to shift resources from North Carolina, where Republicans express confidence of winning, into states long considered safe territory for President Barack Obama, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The evolving strategy comes as both candidates work to capitalize on their second debate-stage meeting, a Tuesday night face off in which Romney emphasized his bipartisan credentials as well as his efforts to hire women while Massachusetts governor, and declared, “I’m not looking to cut taxes for wealthy people.”

CNN is reporting just as I’m writing this that Team Mitt is indeed moving some (but not all) of its assets out of NC. RCP moved North Carolina from toss-up to “leans Republican” today, which put Romney ahead in the projected electoral vote count for the first time in the campaign. Mitt 206, Obama 201, with 29 EVs from Florida still in the toss-up column but hopefully ready to move soon. If that state starts to lean too, Romney will have 235 somewhat bankable votes with nine true toss-up states left to deliver him the remaining 35. The likeliest path is Ohio plus Virginia plus any other state, but if he really is playing to win in Michigan and Pennsylvania and not just forcing Obama to spend money there to defend those states, he could get 36 EVs just between those two. I’ve always thought Romney could win those states only as gravy, if a big red wave washes over the map and carries all of the more competitive swing states with it first, but who knows what GOP pollsters are seeing in their numbers right now. Romney’s debate demolition of Obama was a true game-changer; only people with deep data know what the game really looks like at this point.

A Republican source tells Jim Geraghty that he is indeed seeing signs of Team O retreating from North Carolina but not from Florida — or at least not yet. The margin there’s still too close, and there are too many EVs at stake, to pull back before the last debate. But if Romney’s poll surge continues, it’ll be time for hard decisions by Team Hopenchange next week. Their dilemma: Is it worth abandoning a big state that they really don’t need to win in order to allocate resources more efficiently, or would conceding Florida be too damaging spin-wise and depressing to their base to risk it? Binder jokes can keep liberals running on fumes until the next debate, but if Florida starts to wobble, the tone next week will shift. A lot.

Here’s Soledad O’Brien broadcasting from another dimension where Obama leads Romney by 15 points in Virginia. Oh — forgot to mention: Obama’s job approval is four points underwater nationally. According to … the Daily Kos’s pollster.


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nobar on October 18, 2012 at 4:41 PM

durham county will definitely go obama, don’t know of any other nc county…

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 5:13 PM

i just sent another 115.00 today!!! Tag, you’re next!!!

1nolibgal on October 18, 2012 at 4:47 PM

As soon as we’re into the next credit card billing cycle (tomorrow or over the weekend), the spouse and I will send in more money.

I think Romney should keep spending money in CO, FL and VA. Spend some in WI and LOTS in OH. I have been excited by PA in the past but they never come through. I think MI is a lost cause.

COgirl on October 18, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Would LOVE to see some ad time and visits to Michigan. I’m still holding out hope.
Sounds like PA would be a good investment, too.

Hurry, Nov 6 !!!

pambi on October 18, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I would love to see some in California, the pain and suffering it would cause Obama and posse would be EPIC….

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 5:14 PM

I’m a student at Suffolk University in Boston. A week or so ago national pundits on both sids of the aisle were laughing at our schools polling department for pulling out of NC, FLA and Virginia because they are deemed Romney locks.

Where are the laughers now? Apparently Suffolk had the deep data talked about here and got out ahead of the curve. I would presume Obama is hanging around in those states for perception purposes only and will have a slow draw down and retreat to other states over the next week.

eski502 on October 18, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Ace just reported that a Susquehanna Poll showed Mitt LEADING in PA by a couple of points, but then it was pulled.

Hmmm…..

Rixon on October 18, 2012 at 4:40 PM

It’s true, they did:
http://twitpic.com/b5bznf

SP&R ‏@SusquehannaPR
Latest PA statewide, conducted October 11-13, shows Romney leading by 4-points in PA, 49%-45% after his excellent debate performances.

strictnein on October 18, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Bob Beckel on Fox just now: “It’s over.”

Beckel says “if the Gallup numbers are correct,” the election is over, Zero lost, there’s no way he pushes Romney back below 50%.

“It’s. Over.”

Sure, sure, don’t get cocky. But…um…SWEET!

Rational Thought on October 18, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Sure, sure, don’t get cocky. But…um…SWEET!

Rational Thought on October 18, 2012 at 5:14 PM

:)

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 5:16 PM

http://politicker.com/2012/10/meet-two-of-the-developers-behind-the-internet-october-surprise/

Fark unraveled this, but this is the best summary.

budfox on October 18, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Why doesn’t the RNC or Super PACs advertise in those states on Romney’s behalf so he can focus on OH. Ohio’s the trophy. Romney should keep his campaign’s focus on the swing states–VA, FL, CO, OH, IA.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Beckel has seen this before. So have I.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Could O’Brien possibly have missed a decimal point on a poll that has Obama up by 1.5% or something?

Or is she just on the leaf?

bmmg39 on October 18, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Here’s Soledad O’Brien broadcasting from another dimension dementia

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Basilsbest on October 18, 2012 at 5:19 PM

for cripe sakes

*shaking the head*

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

The latest gaffe from Obama’s foreign policy expert. Enjoy.

Basilsbest on October 18, 2012 at 5:19 PM

The gift that keeps on giving!

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Basilsbest on October 18, 2012 at 5:19 PM

for cripe sakes

*shaking the head*

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 5:21 PM

The gift that keeps on giving…I’m beginning to wonder about his health..seriously.

d1carter on October 18, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Here’s Soledad O’Brien broadcasting from another dimension dementia

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Soledad O’Brien gives Imbeciles everywhere hope that they to might one day become rich and famous…. for being Imbeciles…

SWalker on October 18, 2012 at 5:24 PM

“Clinton’s a schmuck.”

Gingotts on October 18, 2012 at 5:12 PM

That was one damn funny show.

BobMbx on October 18, 2012 at 5:25 PM

OTTO on October 18, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Couldn’t have said better myself…LOL.

d1carter on October 18, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Romney’s within 1 according to latest WI Marqueee poll of likely voters–a reputable polling outfit. Definitely get assets there stat, Team Romney, RNC, etc…

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Go for Illinois!

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Marqueee poll

That’s Marquette, doofus.

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 5:34 PM

In the RCP averages, Romney is still behind in OH (18 EV) by 2.4% and in VA (13 EV) by 0.8%, so a maximum effort needs to made to win both states, which (with CO, FL, and NC) would give Romney 275 EV.

IMHO, Romney shouldn’t pull out of FL yet–it’s too crucial a state, and Romney’s lead is small (2.5%).

If Romney wins FL, CO, NC, and VA but loses OH, he would be at 257 EV, needing 13 more. The best alternate target state would be Wisconsin (10 EV), where native-son Paul Ryan would help him, and Romney is only 2% down now, and Romney could use the ground game Scott Walker built. Wisconsin and any other state would put Romney “over the top”, including NH (4 EV, down 0.8%), IA (6 EV, down 2.3%), or NV (6 EV, down 3%).

There’s no doubt that PA could replace OH, and Michigan could almost replace OH. But PA has two huge expensive media markets (Philly and Pittsburgh), while Michigan has one (Detroit), and all three are liberal bastions. Between the two, Michigan may be Romney’s better bet, as older voters there will remember his father as Governor, while neither Romney nor Ryan have any real connection to PA.

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 5:39 PM

d1carter on October 18, 2012 at 5:24 PM

i hear ya

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 5:42 PM

The latest gaffe from Obama’s foreign policy expert. Enjoy.

Basilsbest on October 18, 2012

That’s a good one! “How many people know someone who served in Iraq or Iran?”

Was Jimmy Carter in the audience, by any chance?

Steve Z on October 18, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Romney needs to start spending money there for pure optics. In addition, Obama’s campaign will think Romney’s knows something they don’t and will panic, dumping money there as well. This will make the preception a reality and the foundation will crumble.

Haven’t you seen the movie “The Secret”?

akaniku on October 18, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Here is my view of the state by state breakdown in a dead heat tie election based mostly on historical voting and a flavor of current polling. A + means its pro Republican and a – means its pro socialist in a tied election……

North Carolina +6
Florida +2.5
Virginia +1.5
Colorado 0
Ohio 0
Iowa -1
Wisconsin -1
New Hampshire -2
Nevada -2.5
Pennsylvania -3.5
Minnesota -4
New Mexico -5
Michigan -5

The key 6 states I believe are Ohio-Colorado-Wisconsin-Iowa-New Hampshire-Nevada. If Romney wins Ohio, he needs just one other. Otherwise he must win Wisconsin plus two others.

Iowa was a minus 2 state both in 2004 and 2008. Since Obama made his name in Iowa and McCain dissed Iowa in numerous ways, I have to believe it has improved atleast to a minus 1 state. Republicans also now have a popular Governor in the state to help with organisation. Iowa is a sleeper state in spite of the current polling that has Obama leading by 2.3 points. Don’t believe it. Obama underperformed his polling by 6 points in 2008 in Iowa, by far his biggest under performance. Iowa is very much a toss up I believe even if Obama closes the current slight lead by Romney nationally. Do not believe the Iowa polling.

I think North Carolina is less in play in a tie election then Minnesota is, which nobody ever mentions. But neither state is important. North Carolina is meaningless. I wouldn’t mess with Pennsylvania or Michigan either however.

I believe every penny should go into the big 6 mentioned above, along with Virginia and Florida. Especially focused on getting the vote out. The big 6 are small states where advertising is less important then getting the vote out is. This is a 8 state election.

KMav on October 18, 2012 at 5:51 PM

http://politicker.com/2012/10/meet-two-of-the-developers-behind-the-internet-october-surprise/

Fark unraveled this, but this is the best summary.

budfox on October 18, 2012 at 5:16 PM

LOL…And I am sure some libtards actually thought this would “bring down Romney” or something!

Norwegian on October 18, 2012 at 5:55 PM

RepubChica on October 18, 2012 at 5:26 PM
D+5 in last poll. Trending heavily R, could be looking at major losses for the Dems across the board. (Thompson has run the worst Senate campaign outside of Akin. If he wins, he should get down on his knees and thank the Tea Party.)

flackcatcher on October 18, 2012 at 5:55 PM

If Obama buys any more Milwaukee air time, he’ll have cornered the market.

Seriously, other than Ryan’s Congressional campaign (yes, he has to run one or the ‘Rats will steal a seat) and a couple of mostly-radio third-party ads, there’s still essentially nothing pro-Romney/Ryan up here.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 5:57 PM

KMav on October 18, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Dude, you are so wrong about NH. The state flipped BACK to the red in 2010 and Obama will not win here. Nor will he win Maine. They flipped red too.

NH ain’t socialist.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Actually Mitt has never totally given up on Michigan. He and Ryan came here several weeks back. Ryan and Ann have been back since.

echosyst on October 18, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Romney up 4 in PA?

Gotta go for Illinois. They just gotta!

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Obama’s job approval is four points underwater nationally.

His approval should be 20,000 leagues underwater

scalleywag on October 18, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Dude, you are so wrong about NH. The state flipped BACK to the red in 2010 and Obama will not win here. Nor will he win Maine. They flipped red too.

NH ain’t socialist.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Well, in 2008 Obama beat his national numbers by 2.5% in New Hampshire in spite of New Hampshire being John McCains pet state. Also, the current polling has Obama up a point on average and the latest poll from Rassmussen has Obama up a point even though Romney leads nationally by a few points. I still think New Hampshire is about a 2 point Dem state.

As for Maine, I am giving Romney 1 electoral vote for the 1 district. However, if Romney wins the state overall the election is a forgone conclusion. The last few polls have Obama leading by 14 points.

KMav on October 18, 2012 at 6:15 PM

If Obama buys any more Milwaukee air time, he’ll have cornered the market…

… essentially nothing pro-Romney/Ryan up here.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 5:57 PM

How can I put this politely…
You and I both know demographics would suggest a Romney dollar spent in Milwaukee is a dollar wasted. Heck, why not just put your wallet on the front seat and leave the windows down when you go into Jake’s for a Reuben?

And you know no money is needed in Waukesha- spend it in Rock and Dane County, and from Osh Kosh to Green Bay, and then west to La Crosse and Eau Claire and maybe north to Superior.

M240H on October 18, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Maybe Gallup got tired of the Obama administration questioning their polling methods and said here, try this one :)

scalleywag on October 18, 2012 at 6:16 PM

NC is in the bag for Romney… shift the money and stand by for the WAVE ELECTION!!

Khun Joe on October 18, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Come to PA, Mitt. Doors are always open. Pierogies frying in the pan. Lots of dairy farms where I grew up – glasses of milk for everyone! We’ll bring a cookie tray!

You can win PA, Mitt. You will win PA.

Philly on October 18, 2012 at 6:32 PM

NC was always in the bag for Mitt. Our state is disgusted with Gov Bev Perdue. So disgusted that she is not even running for a 2nd term. Former Charlotte mayor Pat McRory is a shoe in. And it’s not just our gov that Carolinians have profound buyer’s remorse over.

MJBrutus on October 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

You can win PA, Mitt. You will win PA.

Philly on October 18, 2012 at 6:32 PM

I think so too. However, I think that PA would come along with the wave. IOW if Mitt has a strong day he’ll win PA. He won’t win PA if he hasn’t already got enough to win.

BTW. how is your aptly named Mayor Nutter doing?

MJBrutus on October 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

obama spox talkign with wolfie…1 million more registered dem voters in PA…we are not worried about PA

we shall see

cmsinaz on October 18, 2012 at 5:04 PM

True, there are 1 million more registered Dem voters here in PA than Republicans, but if 1980 was any indication, there may be many of them casting their vote for Romney.

And I would also add that the mood is much different now — my county was one of several that went completely Republican in the county row offices in 2010 after a 50-year run of being controlled by the Democrats. I definitely get the sense that more and more people locally and county-wide are starting to realize that they have been sold a hell of a bill of goods by the Dems.

We shall see indeed. :)

PatriotGal2257 on October 18, 2012 at 6:53 PM

But, ut, but, but….only a true conservative could possibly have chance to win!

/unseen

rickyricardo on October 18, 2012 at 4:45 PM

But, but, but the SoCons should be kicked to the curb because they won’t support Mitt.

People like you ensure even if we do win, the victory and gains will probably be short lives.

I cannot imagine hating like you do.

hawkdriver on October 18, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Romney up 4 in PA?

Gotta go for Illinois. They just gotta!

happytobehere on October 18, 2012 at 6:10 PM

I just moved my residency and registered to vote in NC after I retired from the Army. But I would have loved to have been part of the wave to turn my home state, PA, red.

hawkdriver on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

lived, short lived.

hawkdriver on October 18, 2012 at 6:58 PM

BTW. how is your aptly named Mayor Nutter doing?

MJBrutus on October 18, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Nutter Butter runs a decaying Democratic debt-ridden overtaxed cesspool. He’s a nice man, but a subpar mayor in a crappy city.

I left that hellhole 3 years ago. Don’t miss it. Still live in PA, but not in Killadelphia.

Philly on October 18, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Mitt.

bleed him.

make him spend where he never had to before.

ted c on October 18, 2012 at 7:01 PM

show homeslice what coattails look like

ted c on October 18, 2012 at 7:02 PM

we’ve got Romeny’s back in NC – go after Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado…we’re good here…long live the NC Tea Party Revolution!

tmedlin on October 18, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Even if you ignore Gallup totally then Bam is still only at 47.0% in the RCP average. Eight years ago today Bush was at 48.7%. Bush’s support was never at the level Obama is at now since before the Republican convention that year, and he never trailed Kerry a single day after the Republican convention either. Remembering how close that one turned out for an incumbent who had much better numbers any way you want to look at it leads me to believe there’s a lot of liquor being consumed in Chicago these days.

alchemist19 on October 18, 2012 at 8:14 PM

A Republican source tells Jim Geraghty that he is indeed seeing signs of Team O retreating from North Carolina

Could be, but as of tonight, he’s still running ads in eastern NC, though it does seem that there are fewer of them.

xblade on October 18, 2012 at 8:14 PM

We just maxed out on our contributions to Mitt.

And we’ll be working the polls.

No cockiness, just determination.

Sweep the leg, Mitt!

LASue on October 18, 2012 at 8:28 PM

M240H on October 18, 2012 at 6:16 PM

The Milwaukee media market is the gateway to Racine County, which is about as “swing” as it gets.

With that said, I thought I saw someplace earlier today that Green Bay was the hottest Presidential media market in the country, with Madison 5th (WTF?). The money spent in Madison would be better spent in the Chippewa Valley IMHO.

Steve Eggleston on October 18, 2012 at 9:17 PM

If one of the States that has been swinging in favor, VA say, has early voting, then take a quick gauge of that after the first day and perhaps start to pull money from markets there and start to shift to the Obama firewall States.

Obama doesn’t do defense, he either wins handily or goes down in flames, there is no ‘tight race’ and ‘skilled strategist’ Obama. Just grin’n'win Obama and sourpuss Obama with no in-between. Throw him off-balance when in sourpuss mode and that will just deepen the distaste for him. Plus people like a winner and a fighter who is willing to take the fight to the enemy.

Romney didn’t play it safe on VP pick, didn’t play it safe in the debates, and now that Obama is going sour, it is not time to play it safe. If you want a blow-out, you must push for it and hard. Remind hunters in PA, WI and MI about Obama’s bitter-clinger remarks and now his plant’s AK question and his answer. Remind people in MI that the two automakers haven’t gotten better, haven’t restructured to something that is solvent, and will never do so as long as Obama is in office, which means those jobs will go away when those two auto-makers collapse.

You want to win big?

Show up and fight.

ajacksonian on October 18, 2012 at 9:42 PM

This my friends is a troll a moby if you will. He seeks to disrupt unity, unity against 0 . Treat him as such.

But, ut, but, but….only a true conservative could possibly have chance to win!

/unseen

rickyricardo on October 18, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Bmore on October 18, 2012 at 9:55 PM

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