Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?

posted at 5:24 pm on October 17, 2012 by Allahpundit

You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”

Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.

Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.

Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.


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One of those heard through a friend of a friend of a friend things, but FWIW Obama is going to be making some kind appearance at George Mason University on Friday so it doesn’t look like his campaign is giving up on Virginia yet.

a_feral_duck on October 18, 2012 at 7:39 AM

Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Pure delusion. Polls show that Romney won the debate convincingly on every single issue. Focus groups had Romney winning it. A few polls have Obama winning overall by a few points.

that’s really a “stink” by Romney. Why is it that the right is so happy with the debate performance and the left is so panicky?

We’ll see what happens over the next week with the polls, but I suspect that Romney’s lead will continue to increase both nationally, and in the swing states.

But, you keep pushing your delusions that Obama had a great night.

Monkeytoe on October 18, 2012 at 7:48 AM

I look at the picture on the screen cap of Barry. I think he is thinking:

“Oh Man, I just want to Choom so bad right now….”

Oil Can on October 18, 2012 at 8:13 AM

I just got back from Colorado. The Republicans have ads running but there is such a host of races they seem to get lost.

A local pundit promised me that if the trend of the debates continues, Mitt would carry that state since they are sick of the economy and a sneaking suspicion that Dear Leader, in that job, is like a toothless kid trying to eat jawbreakers. If they sit long enough, they sorta dissolve but there is no real bite into anything and he can’t handle many balls at once.

I was in Ohio, also. It looks like the race is Romney’s to lose although the media and Democrat organization is starting to panic.

Don’t listen to the whistles and songs. They are worried but a great cover for Libya has been created. The only problem is too many people on tape.

IlikedAUH2O on October 18, 2012 at 8:30 AM

The real magic I noticed is President Obama’s disguise as a friend of fossil fuels and manufacturing.

Gotta admire that guy.

IlikedAUH2O on October 18, 2012 at 8:32 AM

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Jobless claims rise sharply, government flags seasonal factors

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Rasmussen poll of Ohio…

Obama 49
Romney 48

Even D/R split

Romney cannot go ahead in OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 8:59 AM

BTW, Obama draws 14,000 in Ohio, while Romney struggles to get 9,000 in Virginia.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Romney cannot go ahead in OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 8:59 AM

But he’s closing fast.

And the poll was taken before today’s disastrous job report.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 9:08 AM

“Romney cannot go ahead in OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 8:59 AM

But he’s closing fast.

And the poll was taken before today’s disastrous job report.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 9:08 AM”

Closing from what?

Ras has always shown a close race in OH with Obama ahead, which is how it will play out. I’ve predicted a 1-2 pt win in OH for Obama and that looks pretty good.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

You have no clue.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Ras has always shown a close race in OH with Obama ahead, which is how it will play out. I’ve predicted a 1-2 pt win in OH for Obama and that looks pretty good.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

A 1-2% win for Obama is not rock solid.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 9:15 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Florida Is GONE For Romney!!!!!

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:15 AM

BTW, Obama draws 14,000 in Ohio, while Romney struggles to get 9,000 in Virginia.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Link please – every news report I have seen or read states the exact opposite.

And, as far as job reports – if you think those job reports are “good”, you are clearly delusional.

Anyway, the movement is all in Romney’s direction, so we are sitting pretty for the election. You keep pushing your baseless assertions and we’ll stick to the actual facts. Yes, the race is close, and Obama may still win it. but Romney is now leading nationally and in most swing states. And, the movement is all in Romney’s direction. So, unless Romney does something disastrous, which is unlikely, Romney’s chances of winning are better than 50%.

Monkeytoe on October 18, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Rasmussen poll of Ohio…

Obama 49
Romney 48

Even D/R split

Romney cannot go ahead in OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Obama cannot go ahead in OH.

tinkerthinker on October 18, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Romney will win Ohio, along with FL, VA, and NC. CO is looking good, too.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Ras has always shown a close race in OH with Obama ahead, which is how it will play out. I’ve predicted a 1-2 pt win in OH for Obama and that looks pretty good.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Governor Barrett clean up Scott Walkers mess yet?

Go phuck yourself..you ignorant loon.

HumpBot Salvation on October 18, 2012 at 9:18 AM

“Rasmussen poll of Ohio…

Obama 49
Romney 48

Even D/R split

Romney cannot go ahead in OH.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Obama cannot go ahead in OH.

tinkerthinker on October 18, 2012 at 9:16 AM”

Obama IS ahead in OH. Check the RCP average.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Obama is struggling to get even close to the level of supporter enthusiasm he generated 4 years ago. Obama supporters are reduced to making excuses for his terrible record and to trying to assassinate Romney’s character.

Things aren’t looking so good for Obama in the swing states. He is tied with and likely just behind Romney in Ohio, and is trailing in FL, NC and VA.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Obama has stalled in the polls. Obama’s peak was just after the Bill Clinton convention speech. How embarrassing for Obama.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 AM

“Ras has always shown a close race in OH with Obama ahead, which is how it will play out. I’ve predicted a 1-2 pt win in OH for Obama and that looks pretty good.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

A 1-2% win for Obama is not rock solid.

sentinelrules on October 18, 2012 at 9:15 AM”

Actually, when the vast majority of polls show Obama ahead, he is ahead, even if it’s only by a point or two.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 AM

“Things aren’t looking so good for Obama in the swing states. He is tied with and likely just behind Romney in Ohio, and is trailing in FL, NC and VA.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:22 AM”

What evidence do you have that Romney is likely ahead in OH?

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:24 AM

@NumbersMuncher

Ras Ohio poll taken entirely post-2nd-debate shows no change – Obama +1, 49-48. Dead even w/ indys (was O+3 last week).

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Team Obama has absolutely nothing to close the campaign with during these last few weeks. The Obama campaign made a terrible mistake in choosing to run a totally negative campaign aimed at demonizing Mitt Romney, and not presenting a clear, positive agenda for the next four years. Now we see Romney’s favorability numbers rising, despite the negative as run against him for months, and we see the voters overwhelmingly believing that Romney is better than Obama on the economy.

As many of you predicted, the Romney campaign is finishing strong.

We are going to hear from a lot of disgruntled, liberal pundits on November 7, complaining about the Obama campaign’s strategy. Of course, they will blame the strategy for Obama’s loss, not on Obama’s failed policies that have been utterly rejected by voters.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:35 AM

@NumbersMuncher
Ras Ohio poll taken entirely post-2nd-debate shows no change – Obama +1, 49-48. Dead even w/ indys (was O+3 last week).

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Uh oh. More bad news for Obama. Obama desperately needed a game changer in that debate, but he ended up losing to Romney yet again and making a complete jackass out of himself. Obama did not get the game changer that he needed. It is no wonder that he is not receiving any kind of bounce after the second debate, where Romney destroyed him on the economy.

P. S. – I am posting all of these comments with the iPhone’s voice to text feature. This is neat. Apologies if there are errors. Sorry for the off – topic note. It can spell Mitch Romney’s name perfectly. Whoops, let me try that again. Mitt.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Rasmussen Thursday

Romney 49
Obama 47

No worries the debate bounce for the One will come. It just takes a day or so sink in.

Also Rasmussen swing state likely voter will show Obama in the lead

dumbygumbyanddopey

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

“@NumbersMuncher
Ras Ohio poll taken entirely post-2nd-debate shows no change – Obama +1, 49-48. Dead even w/ indys (was O+3 last week).
Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Uh oh. More bad news for Obama. Obama desperately needed a game changer in that debate, but he ended up losing to Romney yet again and making a complete jackass out of himself. Obama did not get the game changer that he needed. It is no wonder that he is not receiving any kind of bounce after the second debate, where Romney destroyed him on the economy.

P. S. – I am posting all of these comments with the iPhone’s voice to text feature. This is neat. Apologies if there are errors. Sorry for the off – topic note. It can spell Mitch Romney’s name perfectly. Whoops, let me try that again. Mitt.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:40 AM”

Obama has the same small lead he had before in Ras. Ohio is locked for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Romney up again today in Rasmussen. Looks like Gumby’s predictions were totally wrong, once again. Poor Gumby. And we seem to remember him saying how much fun today’s national polls were going to be for Obama supporters like him. Looks like things are not turning out the way that he and other Obama supporters wanted. These people are going to need to get together and form some kind of Obama worshiper support group after Obama’s inevitable loss in a few weeks.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Romney back up by two and huge 4 point swing towards Romney in the swing state poll as Romney now leads by 1 in the first poll that includes a good amount of data from the second debate.

/gumby slits wrists

Zybalto on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Rasmussen Thursday

Romney 49
Obama 47

No worries the debate bounce for the One will come. It just takes a day or so sink in.

Also Rasmussen swing state likely voter will show Obama in the lead
Well Obama still leads by one in Ohio it’s over.
dumbygumbyanddopey

bgibbs1000 on October 18, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Are you from Ohio? I’ve heard about their presidential election history, but I’m unfamiliar with the voting patterns across the state. I found this county map that I thought was interesting even though it doesn’t include the 2008 election. The deep blue is in Cleveland and the eastern edge.

Ohio’s Presidential Election History

INC on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 AM

Grew up in Western PA, about 100 yds from the Ohio border, now live north of it.
Cleveland, like every major city, is heavily black and democratic, though it is not as strong like it once one, (like a lesser version of Detroit)
The northern edge used to be dominated with auto related assembly plants and suppliers, heavy UAW,not any more, the eastern edge was once a big steel mill and fabrication, not any more. The south east is the coal mining region, the south west dominated by Cincinnati is pretty conservative. Columbus is home to 40k plus Ohio state plus all the state government workers. The rest of the state is more or less farmland.

Many of the smaller cities ave been decimated by the GM closures. Areas like Youngstown have been dead for years because of the steel manufacturing implosion.

One thing I wish Romney would have highlighted in the last debate is how the high cost of energy, whether it be oil, electric etc, impacts the creation of jobs, especially manufacturing ones…in this country.

Animal60 on October 18, 2012 at 9:52 AM

We are very concerned about Gumby and other Obama supporters. Rumor has it they are now on suicide watch. The Big Bird bounce didn’t materialize. The Biden laugh fest debate bounce didn’t materialize. The second debate, which Romney actually won, poll bounce never happened either. The Obama campaign is running out of steam and out of time. Obama has stalled in the polls, while Romney’s surge continues.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Ohio is locked for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Hahahahaha!!! Can’t wait for your walk of shame on November 6th when the call goes out that Ohio belongs to Romney.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Obama has stalled in the polls. Obama’s peak was just after the Bill Clinton convention speech. How embarrassing for Obama.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 9:23 AM

The final effect will be the bandwagon jumpers……those that want to vote for the winner. With Romney inching out more and more, that segment will swing his way too.

Animal60 on October 18, 2012 at 9:56 AM

“Ohio is locked for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Hahahahaha!!! Can’t wait for your walk of shame on November 6th when the call goes out that Ohio belongs to Romney.

Bitter Clinger on October 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM”

If that happens, the dam has broken and Romney will probably win.

But there is no evidence that Romney is winning Ohio. Romney gains in some other state polls, but not Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Obama has the same small lead he had before in Ras. Ohio is locked for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Perhaps you didn’t notice dumbo, your boy lost 3% with Independents. If you think Romney won’t shave off even more after Monday’s debate on foreign policy – you’re even more delusional than you appear.

Flora Duh on October 18, 2012 at 10:01 AM

The final effect will be the bandwagon jumpers……those that want to vote for the winner. With Romney inching out more and more, that segment will swing his way too.
Animal60 on October 18, 2012 at 9:56 AM

You are absolutely right.

People would feel embarrassed to have to admit that they support Obama. The popular perception of Obama as an inspirational candidate or effective, unifying leader has long since been discarded. Today Obama is nothing more than a failed president who is trying to scare voters and who can offer nothing but excuses.

Oh, Obama, how far you have fallen in the eyes of Americans.

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The more Mitt appears on TV in the debates (unfiltered), the more voter support he gets. The exact opposite is true for Obama. Bring on the third debate!

bluegill on October 18, 2012 at 10:08 AM

All this celebration with Ohio still in Obama’s column, lol.

OHIO (look at the dates and then the trend):

PPP (D+4)…..10/12 – 10/13….Obama-51……Romney-46……Obama +5

SurveyUSA (D+7)…..10/12 – 10/15……Obama-45……Romney-42…..Obama +3

Rasmussen Reports (D+5)……10/17 – 10/17…..Obama-49…..Romney-48……Obama +1

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 3:02 PM

But there is no evidence that Romney is winning Ohio. Romney gains in some other state polls, but not Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 18, 2012 at 10:00 AM

See above.

Resist We Much on October 18, 2012 at 3:03 PM

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