Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?

posted at 5:24 pm on October 17, 2012 by Allahpundit

You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”

Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.

Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.

Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5

You also were expecting a Big Bird bounce. Don’t make me fish up the quote.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Don’t forget the Biden Bounce, which turned out to be the Dead Moonbat Bounce…for Romney.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Gumby: Obama up 6 in Gallup; OMG OBAMA WIN LOCK IT IN

Romney up 6: LOL BAD POLL LOLOL

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:16 PM

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls

Our Washington poll also found a surprisingly close race for President- Obama up 50/45. Pre-debate though: http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-oct-2012

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Washington State????

Romney isn’t going to win Washington, but Obama won the deep blue state by 17 POINTS in 2008. It should not be a 5 point race or anything close to it.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:16 PM

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been
Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Uh oh. More bad news for Obama. I bet you Michelle is secretly happy right now. They’ll get to move in to their Oahu estate sooner rather than later. The truth is that Michelle Obama never much cared for being First Lady, anyway.

bluegill on October 17, 2012 at 10:17 PM

I’m really liking that. 52 or 53% would be better.

Lanceman on October 17, 2012 at 10:10 PM

51 suits me just fine if it stabilizes at that level until the eletion.

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 10:17 PM

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

Which means more bleeding of votes and states for Obama. No other way to interpret that. And coming from a dem pollster that’s really bad news for Obama.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 10:18 PM

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Hey, gumby, do you remember ShadowStats? The site I kept sending you to a few weeks ago? Well, he has his summary of the September report up:

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Scroll down and look in the left side bar.

September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)

It doesn’t matter one whit the cooked numbers that are reported just before the election.

What matters is reality.

The reality that people are unemployed. Or they know people who are unemployed.

The reality that people have lost their homes. Or they know people who have lost their homes.

You talk about reality. Well, you don’t deal with it. You only deal in a number facade that bears little resemblance to the reality of the misery that people have lived with throughout the last four years of this charlatan’s administration.

Go away. Go far away. Don’t return until you’ve decided you can face reality yourself.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 10:18 PM

PPP says no bounce for Obama from debate.

They’re in the field in NH, Colorado and Iowa.

sentinelrules on October 17, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
New poll: Obama by 7 in NV. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-shows-obama-leads-nevada-7 … #GOPmachine #OhioplusNevadaequalsgameover #20days #wematter

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Wow! A poll put out by members of the Cult of Gaia. What are you going to pull out of your hat next? How about a poll from NAMBLA?

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Ohio is really earning its rep as a truly battleground state.

If we could only sell CA to China, we’d have a better country.

KirknBurker on October 17, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Stop talking to Jim Messina. He doesn’t really have a lost puppy.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:24 PM

I’m feeling more optimistic day after day but there is a lot of work to be done. I’ve been donating my Saturdays to the local Romney campaign office and will spend election day getting people to the polls. Keep on pushin’, the finish line is in sight…..

the_stoics on October 17, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Stop talking to Jim Messina. He doesn’t really have a lost puppy.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:24 PM

It’s OK. My mum taught me never to take candy from strangers and weirdos.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:28 PM

“PPP says no bounce for Obama from debate.

They’re in the field in NH, Colorado and Iowa.

sentinelrules on October 17, 2012 at 10:19 PM”

Yep, and watch that Colorado number, since it seems like the state that Romney’s campaign feels it can win and add to Ohio (fat chance on winning OH).

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:30 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Spin spin, little troll.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

“John Podhoretz ‏@jpodhoretz
Wow. 66 million viewers last night.”

Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

(fat chance on winning OH).

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Yeah, losing Ohio by 3% with a D+7 sample with a President at 45%.

sentinelrules on October 17, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

What color is the sky in your world, you blooming idiot?

kingsjester on October 17, 2012 at 10:33 PM

InTrade has been corrupted by Nate Silver and the media.

Once people read about the “surprising accuracy”, the rules of observation were wrecked and it’s been gamed.

For example, you’re a Barry supporter with some ca$h and realize Bammy is in trouble.

How can you effect perception? By doubling down with throwaway cash.

budfox on October 17, 2012 at 7:13 PM

.
I come here not to praise InTrade but to bury it.

Someone noted earlier that to move the SCOAMF into < 50% on InTrade would take ~ $ 18,000. An excellent point and it highlights how small the amount of money is behind this supposedly "market driven" number.

InTrade has been "flash crashing" of late and has turned into just another quick money "slot machine"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/hugo-chavez-wins-presidential-re-election-someone-makes-absolute-killing-intrade

Anyone citing InTrade is engaging in truly delusional thinking.

For everyone who STILL believes in InTrade, here is a hot tip: Buy and hold First Solar! It’s going to the moon! Clear to the moon!

PolAgnostic on October 17, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

If that’s the case, why no bounce for Obama?

sentinelrules on October 17, 2012 at 10:34 PM

I don’t agree with “fat chance in Ohio” but I do think it’s very close and we may be a little behind there. Nothing that can’t be overcome, though.

the_stoics on October 17, 2012 at 10:36 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Right. That’s why PPP hasn’t seen a bounce.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

CBS Poll: Romney Wins 65-34 on Economy;
CNN Poll: Romney Wins 54-40 on Economy,
49-46 on Health Care,
51-44 on Taxes,
59-36 on Deficit,
49-46 on Leadership,

It’s the economy stupid.

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 10:37 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Like all Leftists you have no compunction about lying and you are without compassion.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Survey USA has an OH poll out tonight.
LV (10/10 to 10/15)

supposedly
Barry 45 Romney 42 B+3
MOE 3.5

Party ID
D 39 R 32 I 26 D+7

Dem B 88 R 6
Rep B 5 R 89
I B 33 R 41

Barry is winning,right!

The stupid poll is for moron like gumbypoked. It touted that Romney’s support went down in one week from 44 to 42. Thar kind of falsehood may work on lame imbeciles like gumbypoked, who do not understand statistical noise and MOE.

bayview on October 17, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Yeah, ‘cuz 66 million Pamela Ewings awoke this morning to find that videos of Obama, Hillary, Rice, Biden, and the rest of the administration claiming that Benghazi was a “spontaneous uprising” resulting from a “vile, disgusting, reprehensible, hateful, etc, video” aren’t playing in the shower.

No, Bobby is alive and Obama told the country from DAY ONE that this was a terrorist attack by al Qaeda and had nothing to do with a “vile, disgusting, reprehensible, hateful, etc, video”!!!

Hallelujah!

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:38 PM

“Bad news that so many people saw Romney stink so bad.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:31 PM

If that’s the case, why no bounce for Obama?

sentinelrules on October 17, 2012 at 10:34 PM”

The bounce for Romney really hit on that second night after the first debate, according to what PPP tweeted at the time.

But he was gaining some ground the first night.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:39 PM

(fat chance on winning OH).

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:30 PM

If things are going so great for Obama, why is he pulling out of FL, CO, NC, and VA?

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 10:40 PM

You want to know how to tell Romney is winning and Obama is losing because Obama continues to call Romney a liar.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 10:40 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012

Heh. This phony troll stuff is gold. I hooked three over on another thread!

Lanceman on October 17, 2012 at 10:41 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:39 PM

And when there’s no Obama bounce, like the no jobs bounce? How are you going to spin that, Axelturd?

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:43 PM

If you have ever read one issue of National Geographic magazine, then you know what a Leftist rag it is:

National Geographic Bombarded With Jihadist Threats Over Osama Film …(Will Obama Apologize?)

The movie was produced by Harvey Weinstein, a major Obama supporter. In August, the Hollywood heavyweight hosted a lavish $35,800-a-person fundraiser for the president at his oceanfront Connecticut compound. . . .

A spokesperson for National Geographic told the Post that the channel will air the film ‘no matter what,’ adding, ‘we are big believers in the First Amendment.’

Will the Obama administration blame National Geographic execs for any terrorist attacks that occur? Will National Geographic execs have to do a perp walk in the middle of the night?

A new low of blatant hypocrisy. The 1st Amendment is for me, but not for thee.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 10:44 PM

The bounce for Romney really hit on that second night after the first debate, according to what PPP tweeted at the time.

But he was gaining some ground the first night.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Well, then, shouldn’t they wait a few days before pulling out of FL, VA, NC and CO, if that’s the pattern?

By the way, I did some research a while back on Gallup polls as predictors of final election results. The candidate leading in the mid-April Gallup poll almost always won in November. This pattern goes back to 1956.

In only 2 cases did this rule not hold and in both, the incumbent President had a huge lead and lost his reelection bid. In NONE of the Gallup head-to-head polls was an incumbent President behind nor were any of the eventual winners behind in April.

In mid-April, Romney was leading Obama head-to-head by 5.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:46 PM

The bounce for Romney really hit on that second night after the first debate, according to what PPP tweeted at the time.

But he was gaining some ground the first night.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:39 PM

But according to PPP, the bounce was gone the third night.

sentinelrules on October 17, 2012 at 10:46 PM

I think it comes down to Ohio. Whomever wins Ohio will be the President for the next 4 years.

Dollayo on October 17, 2012 at 10:50 PM

BTW, Obama clobbering Romney in early voting sample in the SUSA Ohio poll. One thing is consistent with Ohio polling…Romney doing the same pitiful job that McCain did. We’ve all seen the spreadsheets from the partisans saying how much better the GOP is doing this year, and yet not one single poll is showing it.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Survey USA poll out in Ohio Romney down 3 with a D+7 sample…

Ohio is going red…

Wisconsin is now in play…

Romney might go over 300…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Hey, Gumby, try not to trash too many more polls, networks, etc, that I have to add to your growing list of “Do Not Believe A Word Of What They Are Saying” has tripled since yesterday morning. All you are going to be left with is the poll deciding what the colour theme should be for Lennox Middle School prom and your MiniTru post is going to consume all of the available bandwidth.

‘Nite, peeps.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:55 PM

“Well, then, shouldn’t they wait a few days before pulling out of FL, VA, NC and CO, if that’s the pattern?”

They aren’t pulling out of FL, VA or CO. They wouldn’t concede those states to Romney and let him move cash to Ohio.

PPP will show Obama with a decent lead in CO in a day or two, btw, showing that state to be far less winnable for Romney than it was a week ago.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:55 PM

BTW, Obama clobbering Romney in early voting sample in the SUSA Ohio poll. One thing is consistent with Ohio polling…Romney doing the same pitiful job that McCain did. We’ve all seen the spreadsheets from the partisans saying how much better the GOP is doing this year, and yet not one single poll is showing it.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Another rehash of nothing that even matters because the total number of early voters who have actually voted is small plus the sample is +7D and that isn’t realistic at all. Also 13% of SUSA poll say they haven’t decided who to vote for…not good news for Obama.

But spin away and save a $100…I expect to collect.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 10:56 PM

D+7 is not going to happen, Romney win by 3 or 4.

Conservative4ev on October 17, 2012 at 10:56 PM

I think it comes down to Ohio. Whomever wins Ohio will be the President for the next 4 years.

Dollayo on October 17, 2012 at 10:50 PM

NRA is blanketing Ohio with ads that are pro Romney and anti-Obama. they did the same for walker’s re-election in Wisconsin and we know it helped him a great deal. David Keene (the NRA president) is convinced that they can move the race a couple of points in Mitt’s favor, especially in Ohio.

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 10:59 PM

I just got a state GOP email saying their internals are showing Romney down only 2 in PA. They’re getting together buses to go knock on doors in PA.

hoosiermama on October 17, 2012 at 11:00 PM

They seem to be burning money in MD. I literally have heard the Morgan Freeman ad four times in the last half hour.

Dubn8tr on October 17, 2012 at 11:01 PM

More on that SUSA OH 45/42 garbage poll. This I can’t blame gumby for, as SUSA is legit. But let’s face it, gumby’s poll analysis skills are limited to copying, pasting and typing “told ya so”.

1) The samples had Obama voters +8 over McCain voters. Obama only won OH by 4.5, so that makes wipes out Obama’s entire lead over Romney alone and might even put Romney up

2) Exit polls of OH in 2008 were D+8 as gumby said but rebalancing it against registration data and actual results were estimated closer to D+5

3) Likely voter ratio of the sampling indicate a 90% turnout rate. Big red flag there

4) PPP has that same 18% a week ago so I guess everyone stopped voting since

5) Any poll with 13% undecided with 20 days left is probably wrong

Survey says: this poll is nonsense

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:02 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:50 PM

OH SOS office says otherwise, scum.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Yes Pennsylvania is now the largest NRA member State in the US. It has surpassed Texas this year. Pennsy is going R

Conservative4ev on October 17, 2012 at 11:03 PM

These close races make me nervous. Deceptocrats love to lie, cheat, and steal elections

the_stoics on October 17, 2012 at 11:04 PM

BTW, Obama clobbering Romney in early voting sample in the SUSA Ohio poll. One thing is consistent with Ohio polling…Romney doing the same pitiful job that McCain did. We’ve all seen the spreadsheets from the partisans saying how much better the GOP is doing this year, and yet not one single poll is showing it.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Link please.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:05 PM

NRA is blanketing Ohio with ads that are pro Romney and anti-Obama. they did the same for walker’s re-election in Wisconsin and we know it helped him a great deal. David Keene (the NRA president) is convinced that they can move the race a couple of points in Mitt’s favor, especially in Ohio.

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Obama’s gun control remarks yesterday were a huge mistake. I really don’t understand why he would go there.,,,

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Yes Pennsylvania is now the largest NRA member State in the US. It has surpassed Texas this year. Pennsy is going R

Conservative4ev on October 17, 2012 at 11:03 PM

I think that between coal and guns, Romney won’t need Ohio.

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 11:07 PM

PPP will show Obama with a decent lead in CO in a day or two, btw, showing that state to be far less winnable for Romney than it was a week ago.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:55 PM

It will be debunked within minutes like their hilarious 51/45 OH poll. I guess Jensen didn’t think people would dare look at the actual public data from the state of Ohio.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Going to post this again… Obama’s Big Bird campaign:

wildcat72 on October 17, 2012 at 11:09 PM

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

The OH SOS has actual turnout at under 8% vs 2008 so far. SUSA has it 18% this week, PPP 19% last week.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:09 PM

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:08 PM

A good rule of thumb: whatever gumby says will happen, the opposite will happen. Like the jobs “atomic bomb”, the Biden bump, 47% sinking Romney etc..

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 11:10 PM

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:09 PM

Ha. OH SOS is 100% true.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 11:11 PM

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA

Even with the high skews, if Romney takes normal undecided breakage he is up 1-2 in OH, with a D+3 or less the firewall melts

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:13 PM

Obama’s gun control remarks yesterday were a huge mistake. I really don’t understand why he would go there.,,,

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Gang bangers.

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 11:14 PM

The NRA is blanketing Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin with advocacy mailings and ads, hopeful of persuading the vast majority of pro-gun, non-NRA members to vote for Romney. They made a similar effort during the recent Wisconsin gubernatorial recall effort and several analysts credited the NRA with helping to save Gov. Scott Walker.

“We can move the race a couple of points,” said Keene.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-hints-at-handgun-restrictions-too/article/2510993#.UH85UYX2FNg

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 11:16 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Ruh-ruh MT @chucktodd Yesterday Obama campaign added MN to their radio buy. Today, campaign announces Jill Biden will campaign there this wk

Now gumby, why on earth would the Obama campaign be campaigning in MN if they have OH, NV, IA and NH all locked up?

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:16 PM

Still trolling with the same C&P that shows up at Ace’s place, huh Troll. LOL.

ManWithNoParty on October 17, 2012 at 11:17 PM

Oh, and Greg/Wolf, you ought to work out just a few variations between posts here and at Ace’s place. LOL.

ManWithNoParty on October 17, 2012 at 11:21 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

That can’t be, can it??? RT @TheRickWilson Ohhhh? MT @macranger: We know woman who asked the “AK-47″ question is an Obama campaign worker.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:24 PM

Gumby: Obama up 6 in Gallup; OMG OBAMA WIN LOCK IT IN

Romney up 6: LOL BAD POLL LOLOL

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Always combined with Gumby’s other goto move:

Romney up 6. D+2 sample. 1700 LVs.

Gumby: “Why Hot Gas do you believe this poll but ignore PPP showing Barry up 48-40 with a D+15 sample off of 200 adults? You only like polls that go your way. I see no irony in anything I write.”

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 11:24 PM

“NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Ruh-ruh MT @chucktodd Yesterday Obama campaign added MN to their radio buy. Today, campaign announces Jill Biden will campaign there this wk

Now gumby, why on earth would the Obama campaign be campaigning in MN if they have OH, NV, IA and NH all locked up?

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:16 PM”

Surrogates are being sent to MN, which isn’t that big of a deal. If Obama or Joe Biden were going, then something might be happening.

Obama is not going to lose MN or WI. And that radio buy is hitting here, too.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 11:27 PM

Obama spending anyone’s precious time or his money in MN with 19 days to go in MINNESOTA and WISCONSIN means they are trying to avoid embarrassment.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Obama is not going to lose MN or WI. And that radio buy is hitting here, too.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 11:27 PM

But he’s obviously worried about losing it. Their internals must look awful.

Not a single incumbent has won with a second term with a smaller electoral map.

Not one.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:30 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 11:27 PM

Is that why Marquette has O only up 1? Is that the famous gumby lock?

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 11:31 PM

Obama’s gun control remarks yesterday were a huge mistake. I really don’t understand why he would go there.,,,

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 11:06 PM

For some reasons Candy couldn’t help with that one and tell tell him not to go in there :)…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 11:38 PM

You know, somebody really needs to ban Gumbey. Not only has he been caught lying numerous times in the past, but the only reason he comes by is in hopes of making people anxious about the election.

WolvenOne on October 17, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Gumby-

Here’s some interesting history, since it seems to now be my job to teach you the basics of poll-trolling:

Gallup’s party IDs vs actual since 2004:

Year Aug Sept Oct Nov Actual
2004 Even Even D+2 Even Even
2006 D+12 D+8 D+10 D+10 D+2
2008 D+10 D+10 D+11 D+11 D+7
2010 D+1 R+1 D+1 D+3 Even
2012 R+2 D+1

So overall the final party ID is always equal to or to the right of what Gallup has in the final 4 months. In the case of 2006 and 2008, it was significantly more D than reality. October should be more R given the fantastic first debate performance by Romney and the massive fundraising thereafter.

Today’s Gallup weighting was D+.7, so it doesn’t look like October’s going to be bluer than September. Apply D+1 to that D+9 WaPo Obama +3 poll and you get a similar result to Gallup’s 51/45

Now Rasmussen is at D+5, yet their Sept ID is R+2.6. Gallup locks their tracker to their party ID. Rasmussen rebalances daily on some criteria he doesn’t share. Since Sunday Ras has been D+3, D+1 and D+5. This is why Ras is much lower than Gallup

Given Romney at 51 and up by 5 with 20 days to go, there’s no wonder why they’re reduced to defending MN.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 11:56 PM

(Hat tip to Ned Stark at HHR for the Gallup data BTW)

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 12:01 AM

Sorry- Romney’s at 51 and up by 6, not 5

Chuck Schick on October 18, 2012 at 12:04 AM

…l but the only reason he comes by in hopes of making people anxious about the election.

WolvenOne on October 17, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Nobody takes that clown seriously…they just like to play with him, ridicule him, mock him, taunt him…I mean he’s beggiing for it (you saw his trollish, infantile posts) and the HA community obliges :))

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 12:14 AM

PPP will show Obama with a decent lead in CO in a day or two, btw, showing that state to be far less winnable for Romney than it was a week ago.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:55 PM

You have no idea whatsoever if that will be the case. You are just guessing, that said, your track record thus far shows that you are wrong on just about everything that has happened. Scott Walker, Atomic Wedgie Jobs Report, Biden, the GDP, and so on and so forth.

No one reads your post and thinks, oh, he must be right, or oh, what brilliant insight. You have no credibility here, we don’t care about your inane babbling and prognostications.

ShadowsPawn on October 18, 2012 at 12:18 AM

Nobody takes that clown seriously…they just like to play with him, ridicule him, mock him, taunt him…I mean he’s beggiing for it (you saw his trollish, infantile posts) and the HA community obliges :))

jimver on October 18, 2012 at 12:14 AM

Agreed. Its hard not to insult him. Low hanging fruit and all that you know.

ShadowsPawn on October 18, 2012 at 12:19 AM

Please, folks. Please, please, please stop feeding the Gumby.

HiJack on October 18, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Gumby, is that you???

ShadowsPawn on October 18, 2012 at 12:45 AM

Let’s face it, Ohio is the state to win. Ohio has been on the winning side for 12 straight Presidental elections. Ohio hasn’t been on the losing side of an election since 1960 when it went for Nixon and Kennedy won. This year will be no different, but Ohio is a swing state. In the last 12 Presidental elections Ohio has gone Republicans 7 times and Democrats 5 times and was on the winning side every time.

Dollayo on October 18, 2012 at 1:07 AM

More—> Ohio’s first Presidental election was in 1804 shortly after it became a state and it helped elect Thomas Jefferson. Since then Ohio has only been on the losing side only 8 times and the winning time 44 times.

Dollayo on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 AM

Dollayo on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 AM

Are you from Ohio? I’ve heard about their presidential election history, but I’m unfamiliar with the voting patterns across the state. I found this county map that I thought was interesting even though it doesn’t include the 2008 election. The deep blue is in Cleveland and the eastern edge.

Ohio’s Presidential Election History

INC on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 AM

Scroll down and look in the left side bar.

September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)

It doesn’t matter one whit the cooked numbers that are reported just before the election.

What matters is reality.

But if the unemployment is still high well into a Romney term of office, will they (the Feds) still cook the books? Either way, the LSM will start “noticing” (an epiphany I tellya) the U6 and SGS numbers and they will become more prominent in their drive-by reports.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 AM

45 42…so we’re supposed to believe there’s 13% of Ohio-ans who are STILL undecided? Sorry but that’s just too retarded for me to swallow.

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:07 AM

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 AM

I think the Feds have partially cooked the books for a while. I do, however, expect people who’ve held off until they know how things will go will begin hiring fairly quickly if Romney is elected.

tkyang99 on October 18, 2012 at 2:07 AM

It’s hard for me to believe Ohio will go to Obama. It’s too far from IL to bring in Dem voters!

INC on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 AM

Dr. ZhivBlago,

My sentence was garbled, but you get my drift.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 2:14 AM

INC on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 AM

No, I live in the People’s Republic of California, I study the idiocy of liberals on a daily basis. However, I should correct something that I said: Ohio has been actually been on the losing side 9 times (not 8) and on the winning side 43 times (not 44). Still, that’s a pretty impressive record.

Dollayo on October 18, 2012 at 2:22 AM

Are you from Ohio? I’ve heard about their presidential election history, but I’m unfamiliar with the voting patterns across the state. I found this county map that I thought was interesting even though it doesn’t include the 2008 election. The deep blue is in Cleveland and the eastern edge.

Ohio’s Presidential Election History

INC on October 18, 2012 at 1:56 AM

I’m from Columbus Ohio. Yes, Cleveland is deep blue. Columbus and Cincy have core blue within the city, but suburbs still lean red from the rural influence. Personally, I saw several Obama stickers early in the race while driving downtown… but lots more Romney signs up in the suburbs since the first debate! According to my wife, she has also noticed far more Romney signs lately. For a while, many were hesitant to put up signs because of the deep partisan divides that have been brewing. But now, people are realizing that real change is needed and are taking a stand. This is especially happening down-ticket as well with LOTS of Josh Mandel signs (please, oh please let him unseat Sherrod Brown!) But we’ll see how it plays out. But if the pollsters are still using D+7 from 2008, they are absolutely out of their minds!

dominigan on October 18, 2012 at 2:33 AM

I do, however, expect people who’ve held off until they know how things will go will begin hiring fairly quickly if Romney is elected.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 2:13 AM

I think you’re right about that. However, to me it’s like the way the markets have been behaving-any shred of economic news that’s not as dismal as predicted is treated like some kind of Roaring Twenties comeback of Prosperity…for a day or two that is.

It’s a house of cards. There are too many systemic economic problems worldwide to overcome (and we can blame whomever we like, but the elephant is still in the room).

In other news, just saw that Ms Stein of the Green Party and her running mate were arrested outside of the debate venue yesterday. Tell me it’s not a rigged game. We have the choice of a Chicago-Indonesian-Nigerian Marxist and a Massachusetts, Liberal, RINO flip-flopper.

What would be the harm of having an open debate with other party candidates? I suspect two things:

1. People would actually like some of the things they say over the Dems/Repubs and that would be bad for business…both parties might have to adjust some of their platform planks (God forbid) which would go against their various interests and certainly those of their big-money supporters.

2. We’d see how similar the Dems are to the CPUSA, and even the Republicans would cringe at admitting that as that goes against the GOP Beltway ideology of detente and the ostrich approach when it comes to the fact that Communists really do exist after all.

Yeah, I’m surely voting for Romney, but all the same it’s a total scam…maybe by design, maybe not, but all the same it comes down to these individuals, those in their circles and how much they can get out of us.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 2:37 AM

dominigan on October 18, 2012 at 2:33 AM

Thanks! It’s always good to hear what people who live in an area see and hear.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 2:42 AM

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 2:37 AM

I’m too tired to make any wise observations, but I know many here are aware of the way games are played in D.C. I think some of the pols in D.C. didn’t realize how many were on to them until the Tea Parties started rumbling. I don’t think some of the Rs in D.C. were very happy about that. All parties have tipping points. The power brokers will always have to deal with unexpected individuals and unexpected circumstances.

I don’t expect Romney to make the oceans rise (!), but our chances of coming back as a country will be drastically improved.

INC on October 18, 2012 at 2:48 AM

I appreciate your optimism, INC, though I don’t share it.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 2:54 AM

Bishop!

… just fainted.

PolAgnostic on October 17, 2012 at 5:27 PM

That’s really funny, it just is.

I loathe zero.

Have faith people. Oh, hell yes!

mickytx on October 18, 2012 at 3:22 AM

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Once again, son: Are you retarded, or just a Democrat?

A reminder for those of you who don’t get their political info from the back of cereal boxes… By Nov 2, possibly half of everyone who will vote, will have already done so. In places like NV, FL, and OH, it will be as high as 70%.

So, if you are planning to volunteer or give money, the earlier the better.

JohnGalt23 on October 18, 2012 at 5:22 AM

But if the unemployment is still high well into a Romney term of office, will they (the Feds) still cook the books? Either way, the LSM will start “noticing” (an epiphany I tellya) the U6 and SGS numbers and they will become more prominent in their drive-by reports.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 18, 2012 at 1:59 AM

The Feds aren’t cooking the books now. Unemployment of 7.8 percent is every bit as bad as unemployment of 8.1 percent. However, the LSM will start noticing the U6 number once Romney is in office– hypocrites.

ghostwriter on October 18, 2012 at 5:59 AM

OH Coal Miners Fight Back Against Obama TV Ad: “Absolute Lies”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SzU3oZLV8Hw

rayra on October 18, 2012 at 6:23 AM

My take.

kingsjester on October 18, 2012 at 6:33 AM

I note the resident liberals on several conservative message boards I visit have been starting and flocking to threads devoted to polling results for the last couple of months. Their posts from site to site are almost identical. I have seen posts on other sites that were verbatium identical to posts Gumby has posted here. What does that tell you?

tommyboy on October 18, 2012 at 7:04 AM

Mitt can win this thing without even OH, PA, WU or MI. For example, if he takes CO, NH, NV and IA he’ll be over 270. RCP has a nice interactive map that lets you play out the scenarios. With FL, NC and VA and now CO too in Mitt’s column the race is just about over. In fact, if Mitt has a good day, chances are very good that OH, WI and PA at least will come along with the tide and make this election a complete blowout!

MJBrutus on October 18, 2012 at 7:07 AM

*WI, not WU

MJBrutus on October 18, 2012 at 7:08 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5