Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?

posted at 5:24 pm on October 17, 2012 by Allahpundit

You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”

Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.

Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.

Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.


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Who got to Major Garrett, such an unfortunate loss.

Cindy Munford on October 17, 2012 at 8:24 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:05 PM

You’re going to collect a bet on the internet? Sucker!!!!!

Cindy Munford on October 17, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Gallup tracker: Romney up 6 with likely voters, up 2 with registered voters.

And the desperation that follows…….

CW on October 17, 2012 at 8:26 PM

If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
He doesn’t need NH to get to 269.

forest on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

That’s all we need, a 269-269 tie.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Missing in the state-by-state number crunching is the Maine Congressional district that has been polling well for Romney. In an election that no one can call with certainty at this point, every electoral vote counts.

IamDA on October 17, 2012 at 8:28 PM

I am cautiously optimistic about Virginia but skeptical that the Democrats are throwing in the towel here. Obama is scheduled to appear at George Mason University later this week.

22044 on October 17, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Getting 8,000 people out to Leesburg on a not very nice day is fascinating considering people were only contacted about it two days ago. And that is just a quickie local turn-out, from the way the call went out… on a Thursday night weekday with not so good weather and not even the promise of a bbq.

When I say something is up in NoVA, I mean it.

Freaking poll-calls nearly every day now.

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Missing in the state-by-state number crunching is the Maine Congressional district that has been polling well for Romney. In an election that no one can call with certainty at this point, every electoral vote counts.

IamDA on October 17, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Certainty is a Maine district going for Romney. If Romney wins that district, and you aren’t into gloating our drinking loser’s tears, you can turn in early election night.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Romney hits 50%, leads by 4 in PPP/Daily Kos national poll

Whoa put away the belts and prescription meds…. the meltdown’s gonna be ugly.

CW on October 17, 2012 at 8:31 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:05 PM

You’re going to collect a bet on the internet? Sucker!!!!!

Cindy Munford on October 17, 2012 at 8:25 PM

I made the bet and fully intend to pay if he wins it.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Freaking poll-calls nearly every day now.

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 8:30 PM

One of the reasons why I no longer have a landline. Your point about NoVa is valid. We had company from Ohio last weekend and took a trip to Shenandoah to see the fall colours. Our company (an Obama supporter) was not prepared for the sea of Romney signs on both ends of the trip.

IamDA on October 17, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I made the bet and fully intend to pay if he wins it.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 8:34 PM

I wish you luck collecting.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 8:36 PM

People,

Here are the combos that get President Romney to the White House:

Assumption: He wins McCain states and has it made in FL, IN, NC, VA, and the takes back the electoral vote in Doublas County, NE.

1) OH + any other state, or

2) Loses OH, but wins three of the following: CO, IA, NV, WI, or

3) Loses OH, but wins CO, WI, NH

That’s it. It will be one of those three scenarios short of winning blue states outright like PA, MI, NM, etc.

Those three.

KirknBurker on October 17, 2012 at 8:36 PM

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 8:34 PM

That’s very nice of you.

Cindy Munford on October 17, 2012 at 8:39 PM

“I made the bet and fully intend to pay if he wins it.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 8:34 PM

I wish you luck collecting.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 8:36 PM”

I will absolutely pay up if I lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Come on Ohio. WE NEED YOU!

Red Cloud on October 17, 2012 at 8:43 PM

One of the reasons why I no longer have a landline. Your point about NoVa is valid. We had company from Ohio last weekend and took a trip to Shenandoah to see the fall colours. Our company (an Obama supporter) was not prepared for the sea of Romney signs on both ends of the trip.

IamDA on October 17, 2012 at 8:35 PM

The last time I saw this was with Sarah Palin on a quick stopover.

This is just weird. No one has campaign rallies like this in NoVA, at least not that I can recall. Something is up.

For me cellphones are not really an option: I’m generally housebound, have poor cell reception, and the phones are too damn small to be useful – no compelling reason for one. You would think an unlisted landline would be safe from this stuff… as it is, call blocking works well enough, if it were just one or two firms… it isn’t. Three pollsters in five days, different outfits and styles each time.

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 8:44 PM

That’s it. It will be one of those three scenarios short of winning blue states outright like PA, MI, NM, etc.

Those three.

KirknBurker on October 17, 2012 at 8:36 PM

..sorta would like to see Romney run the table on your combos *without* OIHO just to sock it to Mr Crapsack™ and all of the media tonguebathers!

Think of how pisssed off Axelturd will be for having spent all of that money in OIHO?

The War Planner on October 17, 2012 at 8:45 PM

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 8:31 PM

NC,

What is your assessment on the chances of Romney winning New Hampshire, if he is set to win that one electoral district in Maine?

KirknBurker on October 17, 2012 at 8:47 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I see that your “Dagny” gig over at IOTW didn’t get traction.
.
Maybe trying to spread yourself too thin or is Axelturd cutting back on hours?

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 17, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Garrett is a douche. Put a liberal douche on Fox and half the knuckleheads who watch him will swear he’s a conservative.

As for the reality of FL, VA, and NC, this only vindicates Suffolk polling, which pulled their people out days ago and declared these states dead for O’Bozo.

Next to fall: Ohio. Let it be so.

Jaibones on October 17, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Re: Ohio.

Plouffe is pushing a dangerous narrative.

If he starts selling Ohio is locked thanks to early ballots, college students will blank on election day.

But as I said before, Barry is soft and cratering in areas outside major Dem counties. Towns that went 60/40 Barry are now 50/50 to 30/70 for Romney.

Combine that with the voter role purge and population drop in the large cities, and you can see why he’s so focused on college students.

I will say if Romney loses the OH by a negligible margin, 50K, prepare for #war.

budfox on October 17, 2012 at 7:18 PM

My niece at Ohio State said the running joke on campus is that Obama has been there so much they need to charge him tuition.

Animal60 on October 17, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Still waiting on the polling for illegitimate voting, my default % is 15.

John Kettlewell on October 17, 2012 at 9:00 PM

NC,

What is your assessment on the chances of Romney winning New Hampshire, if he is set to win that one electoral district in Maine?

KirknBurker on October 17, 2012 at 8:47 PM

I don’t know that Romney is set to win the Maine district, but if he does it will be a short night. As far as NH is concerned I personally have it as going for Romney right now. I’ve been doing my own analysis readjusting polls for a more realistic turnout model (anything below the ridiculous D+7 we see in most polls), and I have Romney at 261 electoral votes right now. With likelys, 301.

Right now this race is Romney’s to lose. The cascade has preferenced, and undecideds or uncommitteds have made their choice.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 9:00 PM

The Clown gets more desperate each day.

CW on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
New SurveyUSA poll in Ohio has Obama up 3, 45-42. Romney leads indys by 8. Sample is D+7 which is better than 2008 turnout for Ds.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

CO does have a decent retiree community: these are the people drawn to the slopes. I got to see a bit of that as my lady was born and raised there and the people who owned cute places in the small towns with the high price figures were retirees.

What the woman in NV with the Luntz group said about she was wavering between not voting and voting for Romney, and she decided to vote for Romney because of his proposed zeroing out of capital gains taxes… that is key. You have to have investment income to afford taxes on those cozy chalets, and retirees have been hit hard by the Obamacession, often losing have the productivity or more of their investment money and still facing stiffer taxes if Obama is re-elected.

If these people start to shift, then fun and exciting times are ahead in CO… especially since they do a lot of financing for grand-kids. Suddenly that college education that might have been do-able now becomes out of reach, and the grand parents give a dose of reality and hard knocks about election choices. Plus the kids who voted for Obama last time now get to feel the results of that vote.

Fun, fun, fun!

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

I just read a poll that our resident troll won’t like.

PPP WASHINGTON: 50-45 Obama

If Washington is that close, it’s no wonder O is giving up on VA, NC, and FL

RepublicanInMA on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

All Romney needed was a draw, and he couldn’t even achieve that.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

That’s all you have after the Gallup poll repelled you like holy water to a vampire. About what everyone expected, I imagine.

ShadowsPawn on October 17, 2012 at 9:02 PM

I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need.

You haven’t been paying attention — the Obama camp knows the polls are skewed. A 2 point lead means a 7-point loss. An even race means a 5-point loss. That’s why they’re giving up states they seem to be competitive in.

TallDave on October 17, 2012 at 9:02 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
New SurveyUSA poll in Ohio has Obama up 3, 45-42. Romney leads indys by 8. Sample is D+7 which is better than 2008 turnout for Ds.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Which means that Romney is winning Ohio in SurveyUSA’s poll when the internals are readjusted.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 9:03 PM

The NRA is blanketing Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin with advocacy mailings and ads, hopeful of persuading the vast majority of pro-gun, non-NRA members to vote for Romney. They made a similar effort during the recent Wisconsin gubernatorial recall effort and several analysts credited the NRA with helping to save Gov. Scott Walker.

“We can move the race a couple of points,” said Keene.

FYI, the gentleman quoted above is David Keene, NRA’s president, and this is good news. They noticed how Obama, in his answer, last night referred to the problem in Chicago as not being AK-47s but “handguns.”

TXUS on October 17, 2012 at 9:05 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

That’s all you have after the Gallup poll repelled you like holy water to a vampire. About what everyone expected, I imagine.

ShadowsPawn on October 17, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Like a liberal to bath water.

Like a liberal to an open mind.

Like a liberal self-reliance and responsibility.

Like a liberal to the truth.

CW on October 17, 2012 at 9:05 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

you don’t give up. I’m sure your earning your pay from axelrod

gerrym51 on October 17, 2012 at 9:05 PM

In the week before the election, I think we’re going to see Romney ahead in both OH and PA (election over), but if it’s only in one of them, Obama’s gone, gone, gone.

TXUS on October 17, 2012 at 9:08 PM

PPP WASHINGTON: 50-45 Obama

If Washington is that close, it’s no wonder O is giving up on VA, NC, and FL

RepublicanInMA on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

..Washington as in The Great Northwest?

(Of course, what am I thinking?)

The War Planner on October 17, 2012 at 9:12 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

May I ask what your goal is by commenting here? Do you think your comments will sway people to vote for you candidate?

Cindy Munford on October 17, 2012 at 9:14 PM

The War Planner on October 17, 2012 at 9:12 PM

LOL! If that was D.C. someone would be talking The Won off a ledge.

Cindy Munford on October 17, 2012 at 9:15 PM

All I know is I got my two college boys rarin’ to go vote in Colorado and in Ohio.

txmomof6 on October 17, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
New poll: Obama by 7 in NV. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-shows-obama-leads-nevada-7 … #GOPmachine #OhioplusNevadaequalsgameover #20days #wematter

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

You know what the funniest part of this saga is?

The MSM will be kicked to the curb with their precious Honey Boo Boo Obama.

The MSM, Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Clinton, Carter, Gore, et al., can never regain credibility.

Key West Reader on October 17, 2012 at 9:18 PM

OK, let’s plan ahead now that we’ll have two Romney terms.

Liz Cheney 2020

First lady Prez evah!

She’s on Hannity.

KirknBurker on October 17, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Nice try, Gumby. PPP just tweeted out that they are not seeing any movement to Obama in their polls tonight in IA, CO, NH, or NV. They said O is looking better in CO than in IA or NH.

RepublicanInMA on October 17, 2012 at 9:18 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

If you read the poll correctly, it is Obama up by +22. Romeneye is toast.

Key West Reader on October 17, 2012 at 9:20 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

i’m still waiting for the Jimmy’s lemonade stand poll

gerrym51 on October 17, 2012 at 9:20 PM

I will absolutely pay up if I lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Nonsense. Anyone who’s been subjected to your antics knows what a low quality human being you must be in real life.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
New poll: Obama by 7 in NV. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-shows-obama-leads-nevada-7 … #GOPmachine #OhioplusNevadaequalsgameover #20days #wematter

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

D+7 poll in a state that was D+8 in 2008. But worse then that, this poll has 4% more Dems then 2008. Dream on.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 9:23 PM

will absolutely pay up if I lose.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Your food stamps won’t work here. And your Obama phone has no signal.

Mu. hahaha

Key West Reader on October 17, 2012 at 9:25 PM

With the Gallup poll today, it is just a matter of time before our national pundits start talking about this: Romney could end up with an electoral collage landslide victory that will approach Reagan’s in 1980.

How is this possible?

Check out the narrowing Obama margins in blue states like California, Minnesota, Wisconcin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

At the same time, check out the margins of Romney’s lead in reliably red states.

We could be looking at a very slim popular vote victory for Romney, which means that even if Obama wins Ohio on the back of the auto bailout, blue states like California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Washington, etc etc will flip to RED due their legal embrace of the Electoral College Compact.

Talk about unintended consequences!

jcmeredith1 on October 17, 2012 at 9:27 PM

“We could be looking at a very slim popular vote victory for Romney, which means that even if Obama wins Ohio on the back of the auto bailout, blue states like California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Washington, etc etc will flip to RED due their legal embrace of the Electoral College Compact.

Talk about unintended consequences!

jcmeredith1 on October 17, 2012 at 9:27 PM”

California, huh? Massachusetts, huh? Illinois, huh?

This kind of unrealistic nonsense is why I’m here.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Three pollsters in five days, different outfits and styles each time.

ajacksonian on October

Do you tell them the truth or give them bs?

Typicalwhitewoman on October 17, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Key West Reader on October 17, 2012 at 9:18 PM

I love that nickname Honey Boo Boo Obama.

How fitting for the spoiled man child in the WH to have the label of a spoiled child from a reality show.

(I do feel sorry for Honey Boo Boo, and her parents have a lot to answer for. Not so much for Obama. He’s old enough to answer for himself.)

INC on October 17, 2012 at 9:31 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
New SurveyUSA poll in Ohio has Obama up 3, 45-42. Romney leads indys by 8. Sample is D+7 which is better than 2008 turnout for Ds.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:01 PM

1) Repeats the same debunked 18% early vote nonsense PPP did
2) Romney wins indies by 8 and holds his party together better than Obama by 2 points, and… loses? Sure thing.
3) Any incumbent still at 45% 20 days out is toast. Suffolk pulled out of NC,FL and VA for less than this
4) Ohio voted 2.5 %-pts redder than the rest of the country in 2008. No evidence why that margin would be any less

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:32 PM

California, huh? Massachusetts, huh? Illinois, huh?

This kind of unrealistic nonsense is why I’m here.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Maybe you should take some reading comprehension classes first. Get back to us wen you figure out what jcmeredith1 is referring to.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 9:32 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

No, that’s not why you’re here. We know it, and you know it.

You’re here to cherry pick polls, spread lies, confusion and to generally demoralize.

I’m sick to death of you and your ilk. If you disagree with conservative policy, then say so and why. But don’t give us any of that pretentious facade about why you are here.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 9:33 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

No. You’re here because you’re a low life loser. Go hang out at Kos, freak.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 9:35 PM

My daughter got her absentee ballot (she’s a student) in Virginia. I could not convince her to vote Johnson; she plans to vote for Romney :-)

I’ve seen quite a few Romney window signs in the dorms on her campus (a surprise, for sure). Apparently though, one of Romney’s sons met with some unfortunate backlash when he was stumping on campus … from Obamabots.

Firefly_76 on October 17, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Ok lets look at this realistically.

Obama right now is the one who has to hang on to states. He cannot afford to bleed any more. But the problem is he’s still bleeding and is only showing hanging on because several polls are over sampling democrats.

As for tonight’s Nevada poll Romney won’t need it to win, but Obama does. Ohio is now the key. Whoever wins that state wins.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Weird Poll from Survey USA on Ohio conducted yesterday before the debate: Obama 45 Romney 42. 9% undecided, +7 Dem sample.

Also, 50% of the respondents say they strongly or somewhat support the tea party–shouldnt 99% of those folks be Romney supporters?

Strange poll…

joepub on October 17, 2012 at 9:38 PM

O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need.

Ran the 81 corridor from Harrisburg PA to Roanoke VA again this weekend and there had to be 50 R/R signs to every zero sign. A month ago it was like ten to one. I know NOVA is difficult to cancel out, but if western VA is indicative of the anything, barky doesn’t have a chance in Virginia.

Lost in Jersey on October 17, 2012 at 9:39 PM

I think Obama has lost Colorado. Romney signs here outnumber Obama by about 10 to 1. Husband commented that he thinks the number of ads by the Big Zero are down.

COgirl on October 17, 2012 at 9:39 PM

This kind of unrealistic nonsense is why I’m here.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

That’s rich, that’s very rich. You are here because you are a troll, its not any more complicated than that. Everyone here sees right through your concern/poll troll bull.

ShadowsPawn on October 17, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
New poll: Obama by 7 in NV. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-shows-obama-leads-nevada-7 … #GOPmachine #OhioplusNevadaequalsgameover #20days #wematter

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

A “Project New America” poll said that? Well then it must be true.

I take it you didn’t bother to check their site before you tried to pass this off as a legitimate poll

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Typicalwhitewoman on October 17, 2012 at 9:31 PM

I used to give them bs… now I tell them the truth because that will freak them out.

These little mind games can be fun, if tedious.

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 9:40 PM

After the Luntz group last night, I’m starting to have hope for Nevada.

Decoski on October 17, 2012 at 9:46 PM

I used to give them bs… now I tell them the truth because that will freak them out.

These little mind games can be fun, if tedious.

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 9:40 PM

I mean its people like me who cause these sudden poll shifts that are freaking out the Left now…

And, really, its cheap entertainment to watch them freak out, no?

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 9:46 PM

“Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
New poll: Obama by 7 in NV. http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-shows-obama-leads-nevada-7 … #GOPmachine #OhioplusNevadaequalsgameover #20days #wematter

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:16 PM

A “Project New America” poll said that? Well then it must be true.

I take it you didn’t bother to check their site before you tried to pass this off as a legitimate poll

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:40 PM”

Ralston knows NV politics better than anyone. He may be fiercely partisan and a jerk, but he knows exactly what’s going on there.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Romney blowout. 330 electoral. You heard it here first.

Decoski on October 17, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Here is your stalinist president you reprobate ignorant leftists…

May you suffer in hades forever.

tom daschle concerned on October 17, 2012 at 9:51 PM

I take it you didn’t bother to check their site before you tried to pass this off as a legitimate poll

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Quit trying to cloud the issue with nonsense. Your candidate is a dud. Get used to it. Maybe you can get Thompson to run again. Although I can’t see him coming close to Hillary in Evs.

Lanceman on October 17, 2012 at 9:52 PM

This kind of unrealistic nonsense is why I’m here.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

No, you’re here because you like to make an azz out of yourself for whole world to see.

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

This kind of unrealistic nonsense is why I’m here.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

THE BEST HIT GENERATOR YET CREATED BY MORRISSEY & CO.

M240H on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Saw this story on the Political Wire blog. In the comments section there, the liberals are in furious denial.

22044 on October 17, 2012 at 9:54 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:49 PM

gumby,

you’ve gone from legitimate state polls, to national polss,back to state polls, now to hack polls.

give it up.

for every nevada poll you can find some other one negates it.

gerrym51 on October 17, 2012 at 9:55 PM

This just in, Obama campaign announces ad buy in, Minnesota. Additionally they will dispense Ms Biden to campaign there this week.

How bad is it when you suddenly have to start worrying about your safe states?

Also, PPP just tweeted that in todays polling they have seen no change, and expect polling to look about like it has been.

WolvenOne on October 17, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Ralston knows NV politics better than anyone. He may be fiercely partisan and a jerk, but he knows exactly what’s going on there.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:55 PM

California, huh? Massachusetts, huh? Illinois, huh?

This kind of unrealistic nonsense is why I’m here.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:30 PM

It’s fairly rich for you to be talking about “unrealistic nonsense.”

milcus on October 17, 2012 at 9:55 PM

As for tonight’s Nevada poll Romney won’t need it to win, but Obama does. Ohio is now the key. Whoever wins that state wins.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 9:36 PM

At this stage of the game, I wouldn’t be surprised if Romney didn’t become the first Republican to win without carrying Ohio. I’m not saying that he won’t carry it, mind you; it just seems to me that he has several paths to the presidency without Ohio.

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Uh oh. One more good jobs reports could put Romney up 12 on Gallup.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Uh oh. One more good jobs reports could put Romney up 12 on Gallup.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 9:57 PM

This guy is just clutching at straws…

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

From the same article:

Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index, however, has deteriorated this month, giving a very worrisome outlook for future hiring.

“Despite the stronger than expected employment report for October, both hiring indices fell to multi-year lows,” Morgan Stanley writes, adding, “Given the volatility of the component indices, it’s too early to make a strong call, but these indices warrant close attention in the coming months.”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/#ixzz29bzG25O7

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 9:59 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Go home troll.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Polls close on the East coast in less than 478 hours…finish the JEF!

jrgdds on October 17, 2012 at 10:00 PM

he first debate, won by Romney, reset the race.

The second debate, won by Obama, again resets the race back to his advantage.

All Romney needed was a draw, and he couldn’t even achieve that.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

CNN (registered voters):

Economy: Romney wins 58-40%

Health care: Romney wins 49-46%.

Taxes: Romney wins 51-44%.

Deficit: Romney wins 49-36%.

Strong leader: Romney wins 49-46%.

CNN Poll: Did Obama offer a clear vision for solving the country’s problems?

38% Yes

61% No

How about that asked about Romney?

49% Yes

50% No

25% of voters switched their vote to Romney and 25% went to Obama.

In other words, Obama didn’t move the ball, which is what he needed to do.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Via @markknoller.

“We’re now 20 days from the election and Obama is running on a portfolio of Lily Ledbetter, Wind Energy, and binders.”

Ya got nuthin!

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:02 PM

“From the same article:

Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index, however, has deteriorated this month, giving a very worrisome outlook for future hiring.

“Despite the stronger than expected employment report for October, both hiring indices fell to multi-year lows,” Morgan Stanley writes, adding, “Given the volatility of the component indices, it’s too early to make a strong call, but these indices warrant close attention in the coming months.””

The coming months don’t matter one bit.

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

25% of voters switched their vote to Romney and 25% went to Obama.

In other words, Obama didn’t move the ball, which is what he needed to do.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Not buying that at all.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Looks like the next jobs report will be another good one…

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/unemployment-continuing-to-fall-gallup-finds/

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Austan Goolsbee and others are preparing for the likelihood that the unemployment rate is going to go up. Go look it up.

By the way, don’t you just love all of that early voting? You were pushing early voting the other day. Well, if indies that could have gone either way already voted after Romney’s smashing success, then an utterly smashing unemployment number is not going to mean anything.

Tell us again how many people have already voted in Ohio.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Romney blowout. 330 electoral. You heard it here first.

Decoski on October 17, 2012 at 9:50 PM

My earlier post:

I believe Romney wins 320-218.

If obama wins, this never goes away. Mika won’t like it but this is obama’s 9-11.

crash72 on September 13, 2012 at 10:23 PM

crash72 on October 17, 2012 at 10:06 PM

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

But wait last month’s jobs report was all that mattered.

Then it was the VP debate.

Then it was last night’s debate.

You are running out of possibilities.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 10:08 PM

he first debate, won by Romney, reset the race.

The second debate, won by Obama, again resets the race back to his advantage.

All Romney needed was a draw, and he couldn’t even achieve that.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

You really are the worst analyst ever. Really. Absolutely the worst. You don’t seem to understand anything going on around you.

ghostwriter on October 17, 2012 at 10:09 PM

will absolutely pay up if I lose.
gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Your food stamps won’t work here. And your Obama phone has no signal.
Mu. hahaha
Key West Reader on October 17, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Lol. Love that response.

bluegill on October 17, 2012 at 10:09 PM

FYI, RuPoll:

In the history of Gallup, no presidential candidate, who is above 50% in mid-October in its poll, has gone on to lose the election in November. (Obama has never been above 50% in head-to-heads with Romney with likely voters in Gallup since the first poll came out in April).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#1

Today:

Romney: 51%

Obama: 45%

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:09 PM

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Right. Just like the last one.

You also were expecting a Big Bird bounce. Don’t make me fish up the quote.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Romney: 51%

Obama: 45%

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 10:09 PM

I’m really liking that. 52 or 53% would be better.

Lanceman on October 17, 2012 at 10:10 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Go home troll.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 10:00 PM

It is home. It exists only to generate hits. Think about it; it demonstrates a familiarity, and fluency, with polls that only a pundit or pollster has.

Hmm.

A competitor really wouldn’t have any interest in generating the hits that g&p does. So who does that leave?

M240H on October 17, 2012 at 10:11 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Obama needed a knockout in the second debate, bit he failed to achieve that. Polls confirm that undecided voters watching the debate saw Romney as vastly superior on the economy. Unfortunately for Obama worshipers like you, Gumbyandpokey, it’s LIGHTS OUT FOR OBAMA.

Time to admit it’s GAME OVER FOR OBAMA and move on.

bluegill on October 17, 2012 at 10:13 PM

All that matters is that Friday report that comes just a few days before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 17, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Another atomic bomb?

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 10:14 PM

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 10:14 PM

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