Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?

posted at 5:24 pm on October 17, 2012 by Allahpundit

You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”

Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.

Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.

Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.


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Bishop!

… just fainted.

PolAgnostic on October 17, 2012 at 5:27 PM

It’s Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hamphire, and Iowa now.

Oil Can on October 17, 2012 at 5:28 PM

The Greek temple is crumbling. No incumbent president has ever won reelection without gaining states.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Gumbybait.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Ocommie lost Fla in 2010.

The media looks the other way………..

FlaMurph on October 17, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Does anyone have a good place to go to see where each state is in the polls? I’d like to see Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and a few others myself.

UnderstandingisPower on October 17, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Bishop-again

gerrym51 on October 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Dropping like flies.

UltimateBob on October 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

But gumbyandpokey promised us that Obama had FL and VA in the bag?!

bluegill on October 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I’m starting to see a big surge in Romney ads (both TV and radio) here in Ohio. The Death Star is coming to life!!!

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

To paraphrase George S. Patton Jr.:

Grab SCOAMF by the ears and kick him in the a$$!

And has anyone seen this ad?! It is devastating (click the sentence link-thingy)

Rixon on October 17, 2012 at 5:32 PM

cautiously optimistic

*thumbs up*

cmsinaz on October 17, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

good to hear

cmsinaz on October 17, 2012 at 5:33 PM

I’m guessing Wisconsin is a more likely Romney state than Nevada is. Both would be great.

BuzzCrutcher on October 17, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Any state Obama closely won in 2008 is gone, done, thats that. Can he still win by picking up Ohio, maybe, but I would not be surprised in the least if Wisconsin puts Romney over the top. This Incumbent is Vulnerable!

rob verdi on October 17, 2012 at 5:34 PM

I’m purchasing some Crystal and some Montecristos and getting ready to celebrate the Repeal of Obumbler Care!!

Tbone McGraw on October 17, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Obama ads still driving us to drink in the Tampa Fl market.

meci on October 17, 2012 at 5:35 PM

From Karl’s mouth to God’s ear. Let it be so.

marybel on October 17, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I live in CO and I am 110% positive that Romney will win this state. Perhaps by as much as double digits.

Any state where Obama is currently polling below 50% is a proabable Romney state.

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 5:35 PM

“None of this matters. Obama can lose 56 states, but as long as he wins Ohio he gets reelected.”

gummedbrain

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 5:36 PM

There’s probably a lot more going on here than internal polls and triage.

Granted, this is a small tater in the larger scheme, but I suspect there is a growing number of municipalities who are demanding cash up front for expenses related to a campaign event, and simply saying no when told by Obama’s campaign “just send us the bill, we’re good for it”.

Because they aren’t good for it.

Obama owes hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, to communities both large and small nationwide…many from the 2008 campaign.

Now, considering the bank account and how expensive it is to move a single point in swing states, not getting the ‘freebies’ anymore puts a dent in the planning.

Chickens….roosting….Hopenchange.

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Give it up ChoomBoy – it’s time for the adults to take over!

Pork-Chop on October 17, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Make it so people with the only poll that matters on Nov. 6. Turnout, turnout, turnout. Don’t sit this one out. Vote for Romney!

Brat on October 17, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I’m purchasing some Crystal and some Montecristos and getting ready to celebrate the Repeal of Obumbler Care!!

Tbone McGraw on October 17, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Still have to flip the Senate for that to happen. Hoping and praying that happens.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Re: the Gallup Poll

If Romney’s up 6 under the new, Obama-friendly metrics, what would this number have looked like under the previous methodology? R+8? 9?

BKeyser on October 17, 2012 at 5:37 PM

“…everyone of them has gone on to win.”

I think Obama was right, “…then there’s going to be a one-term proposition”

STL_Vet on October 17, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Get outta my state…AND STAY OUT!

SMACKRUNNER on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

BREAKING NEWS!!!!

AP now channeling Owl as well as Eeyore

“I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.”

On a serious note, if Romney takes FL, Nc, VA, & CO – then WI and NH can put him over the top.

Personally, living in Ohio, I still see it falling into the Romney column which takes him to 289. If he get NV & PA, we are at 315 and Romney gets “Projected Winner” status by 11:00 PM EST on November 6th.

Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow will steal Romney’s thunder by executing a mutual suicide pact at 11:15 PM EST.

PolAgnostic on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 5:36 PM

winner

cmsinaz on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

He doesn’t need NH to get to 269.

forest on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Re: the Gallup Poll

If Romney’s up 6 under the new, Obama-friendly metrics, what would this number have looked like under the previous methodology? R+8? 9?

BKeyser on October 17, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Yes. You also have to remember that Gallup is a 7-day average.

For Obama to have sunk from -2 to -4 to -6 in 3 days, his last days numbers would have been truly awful.

Proof again that Biden’s performance on Thursday was an absolute disaster.

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Newest Executive Order ready for signature:

“All votes not cast by eligible voters shall be deemed having been cast for Barack Obama”

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

I love the new development, which means Team O now knows those states are lost, but I CONTINUE to be worried about Ohio (Oiho).

Do Ohioans really love them Obamacare and socialism that much? Or is this driven by the union vote in retaliation for (attempted and failed) Kasich’s reforms.

I can’t explain why Ohio is being so stubborn to drop Obama

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Come out, come out wherever you are, RuPoll!!!

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

From Rasmussen: 37% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Another ringing endorsement!

STL_Vet on October 17, 2012 at 5:41 PM

If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
He doesn’t need NH to get to 269.

forest on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

That’s all we need, a 269-269 tie.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow will steal Romney’s thunder by executing a mutual suicide pact at 11:15 PM EST.

PolAgnostic on October 17, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I WOULD pay to see this. Along with all the libs jetting off to France.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

That’s all we need, a 269-269 tie.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:41 PM

I forgot the sarc tag.

We DON’T want that.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

“All votes not cast by eligible voters shall be deemed having been cast for Barack Obama”

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Fortunately, the states have jurisdiction over eligibility determinations and not the Federal government.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

I’m surprised that the media is discounting the X factor in this race. In 2008, some 20-30 million evangelicals stayed home. They vote 2 to 1, historically, Republican. If just half of these come out to play on Nov. 6, there’s going to be an earthquake.

But the reason I bring this up, is that most modeling at the national and state level is based on 2008 turnout. But that won’t be the case if Evangelicals come back to the polls this cycle. You’d think there would be more partisan polling done these days to establish what the electorate is going to be like in 3 weeks.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Gumby will be here once his talking point download is complete…

Electrongod on October 17, 2012 at 5:43 PM

That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

RCP average has Romney +.7 in CO. If this report is true, they are conceding CO.

Missy on October 17, 2012 at 5:44 PM

We DON’T want that.

Nobody does. But in this case, Romney would win as the tie-break would be settled in the House of Representatives.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Obama cannot lie his way to re-election…..

Obama thinks voters are like 7 year old children…

Well some of the liberals are like 7 year old children – and that’s the problem….

redguy on October 17, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Living here in Reno, it’s hard to believe that Obama has a “significant lead” in Nevada. I can’t speak for the rest of the state, but there are Romney yard signs EVERYWHERE—this despite every other commercial being an Obama attack ad.

TheSquatch on October 17, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Obligatory cartoon about precedents: A MUST SEE!!!

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 17, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Nobody does. But in this case, Romney would win as the tie-break would be settled in the House of Representatives.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:44 PM

But guess who the VP would be?

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Every one has gone on to win

If you haven’t seen this already… go and have a glance.

XKCD on electoral history

Prufrock on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Nobody does. But in this case, Romney would win as the tie-break would be settled in the House of Representatives.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Yeah, and then we get 4 years of liberal bitching and moaning about Romney not being “legitimate” (ala GWB circa 2000).

Let’s win it outright and forgo the mess.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

When Romney takes over in January, what keys will be missing on the computer keyboards?

dirtseller on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Gumby will be here once his talking point download is complete…

Gumby is an ABR. He may yet come around, I did.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Not, two of the four states listed have major union presence to be utilized, including for increased voter fraud. The places being dropped don’t.

michaelo on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Fortunately, the states have jurisdiction over eligibility determinations and not the Federal government.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

And the House has jurisdiction over when the Senate is in recess.

And neither one matters to Pres. Obortion.

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Triage, in other words.

triage means “to sort.” However, if they are cutting off states in order to save others, they are amputating. Their campaign is gangrenous and it is spreading. The disease? Well, it’s fail of course.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

But guess who the VP would be?

Yeah, well there’s that.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

We’d be stuck with the Dead Moonbat Bounce for 4 more years and you can see how positively he has affected the Democrats’ numbers over the last week.

One day — far into the future — generations today unborn will ask old-timers, “Where were you, Grandmum and Gramps, when Vice-President Wazzizname had a psychotic break on national television in front of 70 million Americans?

It’ll be like the Kennedy assassination…but without the tears, blood, and flying brain tissue…at least literally.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Mother of mercy!
Is this the end of gumby?

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 17, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Where is Gumby, on suicide watch?

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 5:47 PM

If Plouffe said it was raining outside………I’d go check.

GarandFan on October 17, 2012 at 5:47 PM

UltimateBob on October 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Ive spent time in Africa.You see alot of that in places like Kenya.

docflash on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Nobody does. But in this case, Romney would win as the tie-break would be settled in the House of Representatives.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Yeah, and then we get 4 years of liberal moaning and whining about Romney not being “legitimate” (ala Bush circa 2000).

Let’s win it outright and forgo the mess.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose,

As I just mentioned, they are performing amputations, Allah.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

…is Mooch clapping?

KOOLAID2 on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Not mentioned above, that you have to consider is that most state polling that we have access to is almost always a few days old or older. Both campaigns conduct daily overnight state polling, and are probably working with much “fresher” data than we have.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Why do I feel this is about as secure as the Nationals six-run lead in Game 5 of the NLDS?

Damn, AP, a show a little pessimism for the faithful here, OK?

Bruno Strozek on October 17, 2012 at 5:50 PM

circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Hexk, I’ll toss in CO @ 9

Per RCP Electoral:
Obama at 201
Ohio 18
Iowa 18
NH 4
NV 6

um, math is hard, but I get 256 electoral with that. 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win

socalcon on October 17, 2012 at 5:50 PM

As far as my native state North Carolina is concerned Obama will be buried. He has a snowball’s chance here.

logicman_1998 on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

I’m surprised that the media is discounting the X factor in this race. In 2008, some 20-30 million evangelicals stayed home. They vote 2 to 1, historically, Republican. If just half of these come out to play on Nov. 6, there’s going to be an earthquake.

But the reason I bring this up, is that most modeling at the national and state level is based on 2008 turnout. But that won’t be the case if Evangelicals come back to the polls this cycle. You’d think there would be more partisan polling done these days to establish what the electorate is going to be like in 3 weeks.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

..one surmises that a large majority the half of evangelicals who do show up will be voting for Romney. Just can’t see those folks making the trip for Obama.

On another note, I wonder if AxelTurd’s “significant lead” means 1-2%? I mean, the way things are going, ANY lead for The crapsack™ is significant.

The War Planner on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Great news! Why is O 65% on Intrade?

airway2000 on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

…is Mooch clapping?

KOOLAID2 on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Whatever she has…
I am sure ObamaCare will cover it..

Electrongod on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Gumby is an ABR. He may yet come around, I did.
newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

No, gumby is an Obama supporter and has admitted it. Before telling us Obama was a sure winner, he was posting repeatedly about how Scott Walker was supposedly going to lose the recall election. Don’t fall for the Obama-voting concern trolls, who pretend to be conservative sometimes, but who are simply Obama supporters trying to discourage Republicans from voting.

bluegill on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Gumby will be here once his talking point download is complete…

Gumby’s a moby and a clown.

CW on October 17, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Bruno Strozek on October 17, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Or Denver down by 24 @ half on MNF…

socalcon on October 17, 2012 at 5:52 PM

If Romney wins FL, VA, and NC and he also picks up CO, and WI, then he can lose OH, and still win by picking up one of NV, IA, or NH.

At the beginning of the campaign, Obama’s team thought they had a firewall, and if they could deny Romney OH, they would win. Now, they are seeing Romney making Ohio very competitive, so they want to move more resources to OH. But the problem is that WI is now in play, and with Ryan on the ticket, they may not be able to hold it. If they lose WI, they have to win NV, IA, and NH.

I believe they are trying to build a new defensive perimeter around OH,NV,IA, and NH. That way even if they lose WI, they will deny Romney the last fer EV’s he needs.

I’m sure WI in on their priority list, but that is a firewall state, and so they are going to want to bring attention to it.

Mashman on October 17, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent.

I’m sorry but if more advertising is the driving factor in how people will ultimately vote, we are a nation of absolute morons. Oh, wait, we are a nation of absolute morons.

mapper on October 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Or Denver down by 24 @ half on MNF…

socalcon on October 17, 2012 at 5:52 PM

If I hear that Romney has hired Norv Turner I will be worried!

fegerter on October 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Whatever she has…
I am sure ObamaCare will cover it..

Electrongod on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

heh. I see what you did there.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Gums-Poker hardest hit.

portlandon on October 17, 2012 at 5:54 PM

I think if the election were held today we’d see…

OH R+2
WI O+3
PA O+3
FL R+5
VA R+4
NC R+9
IA O+.5 – possible recount
MI O+6
CO R+3
NM O+7
NH O+.5 – possible recount
NV O+2
MN O+4

National R 52 – O 47

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:54 PM

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

:)

Electrongod on October 17, 2012 at 5:55 PM

um, math is hard, but I get 256 electoral with that. 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win

socalcon on October 17, 2012 at 5:50 PM

I think the assumption is that IN FL VA NC CO will be conceded to Romney.

The deep blue states plus NM MI WI PA plus OH NV NH IA gets Obama to 271 to Romney’s 267. I think.

Missy on October 17, 2012 at 5:55 PM

…is Mooch clapping?

KOOLAID2 on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

She says she’s ready to party hard on Nov. 7.

UltimateBob on October 17, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Still not beyond margin of cheat.

portlandon on October 17, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Great news! Why is O 65% on Intrade?

airway2000 on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Look in the Gallup thread. InTrade is manipulated and irrelevant.

Obama will maintain a lead there until election day; regardless of what actual polls are indicating.

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 5:56 PM

No, gumby is an Obama supporter and has admitted it.

Oh, well, that sufficiently blows up my theory.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:56 PM

And these gains are BECAUSE of not in spite of RR’s out and proud defense of unborn life, individual freedom, free enterprise, family not government, self-reliance not dependency.

It’s almost Reaganesque.

PattyJ on October 17, 2012 at 5:57 PM

For some reason this song popped into my head upon reading this.

Saw quite a few new lawn signs today, ALL Romney/Ryan.

Naturally Curly on October 17, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Hexk, I’ll toss in CO @ 9

Per RCP Electoral:
Obama at 201
Ohio 18
Iowa 18
NH 4
NV 6

um, math is hard, but I get 256 electoral with that. 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win

socalcon on October 17, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Since when does Iowa have 18 electoral votes?

I believe they have 6.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 5:57 PM

And the House has jurisdiction over when the Senate is in recess.

And neither one matters to Pres. Obortion.

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

But, it won’t go to him. If it were to go anywhere, it would wind up with SCOTUS as it did in 2000.

What’s Obama going to do? Declare himself President, declare martial law, put tanks in the street, and start massacring Americans? How long do you think he would last if that happened? Harry Reid, cloture, and super-majorities would be rendered moot and Reid would be wise to hightail it back to his pomegranate farm to read cowboy poetry unless he wanted to be strung up with piano wire.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Don’t look for Connecticut, we’re all “walk over glass,” pro abortion, anti-family, sophisticated commie lovers up here.

What can you expect from the Northeast with all that Harvard and Yale Hate America first virus.

But, we love puppies n things with fur.

Don L on October 17, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Great news! Why is O 65% on Intrade?

airway2000 on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

And I’m up by over $2 million on Poker.net.

Too bad its all fake.

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 5:58 PM

As I just mentioned, they are performing amputations, Allah.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Sorry, but those are not covered under Obamacare. They will have to settle for taking a pill.

tims472 on October 17, 2012 at 5:59 PM

I’m surprised that the media is discounting the X factor in this race. In 2008, some 20-30 million evangelicals stayed home. They vote 2 to 1, historically, Republican. If just half of these come out to play on Nov. 6, there’s going to be an earthquake.

But the reason I bring this up, is that most modeling at the national and state level is based on 2008 turnout. But that won’t be the case if Evangelicals come back to the polls this cycle. You’d think there would be more partisan polling done these days to establish what the electorate is going to be like in 3 weeks.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM


The media is made up of the dumbest and most arrogant people you have never met.

The campaigns are another matter.

There are a number of major evangelical GOTV efforts underway this year. Florida, North Carolina and Virginia are evangelical strongholds. Both campaigns have been working to accurately estimate evangelical turnout.

Abandoning the three Southern states is likely based on firming turnout estimates.

You don’t spend money on a losing proposition.

For all the “Worried about Ohio” commenters – there are enough Ohio evangelical voters who didn’t vote in 2008 to overwhelm the union and “other efforts” in 2012 if those absent evangelical voters show up on November 6th. There are a crapton of Baptists in Ohio.

PolAgnostic on October 17, 2012 at 5:59 PM

What’s Obama going to do? Declare himself President, declare martial law, put tanks in the street, and start massacring Americans? How long do you think he would last if that happened?

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Yeah, I guess. That stuff never happens.

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Say, if he loses, couldn’t Ruth Bader Buzzy retire immediately and he jams a SC replacement like Hillary through?

Don L on October 17, 2012 at 6:00 PM

When Romney takes over in January, what keys will be missing on the computer keyboards?

dirtseller on October 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

All of them. You think these people are going to leave perfectly good computers behind when they loot the White House?

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Great news! Why is O 65% on Intrade?

airway2000 on October 17, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Intrade is mostly libs

ConservativePartyNow on October 17, 2012 at 6:02 PM

The media is made up of the dumbest and most arrogant people you have never met.

Arrogant, okay, but dumb? Nah. They panic when their man is down…i.e. the first debate. But maybe you’re right and they won’t see the tsunami coming. Would love to know how enthusiasim is right now in this sub-group…a poll of say, 1000 likely, self-identified evangelicals across the 8 major swing states.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Say, if he loses, couldn’t Ruth Bader Buzzy retire immediately and he jams a SC replacement like Hillary through?

Don L on October 17, 2012 at 6:00 PM

That would be a tall order. Not a whole lot of legislative days left in the session and the Senate GOP would demand that President Romney be allowed to make the appointment.

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 6:04 PM

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