Gallup tracker: Romney up 6 with likely voters, up 2 with registered

posted at 2:41 pm on October 17, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

Team Obama better hope that overwhelming 3-6 point debate win Tuesday sinks in with the electorate pretty fast. Can they just re-release the anti-Gallup panic memo or do they have to write a new one?

Among likely voters, Romney leads Obama by six, 51-45:

Likely

But here’s the punch in the gut for the Obama camp. Romney leads by two among the traditionally less Republican registered voter population:

Gallup registered

Yesterday, the lead among likely voters in the Gallup tracker was 4 points, and they were tied among registered voters 47-47, with this note from Gallup:

The effect of the Denver debate on voter preferences is also seen in the trend among registered voters. Prior to the debate, in late September/early October, Obama generally led Romney by five or six points among registered voters. Since the debate, the margin has been three points or less.

We’ll see as the tracking poll’s 7-day window rolls on whether Obama’s debate performance, significantly better than his last, was enough to slow Mittmentum. The Hill notes these numbers do not include data from after Tuesday’s debate.

But the steady movement toward Romney since the first debate suggests that, if this result isn’t an outlier, Obama had to do quite a bit to help himself last night. If it is an outlier, it may make a smallish Obama gain look more significant if Romney’s numbers are simultaneously settling back down to, say, +4. But I’m skeptical that fighting to the slimmest of wins or a near-draw turns the tide. And, even if you’re a sanguine liberal who believes Obama wiped the floor with Romney Tuesday, it might be helpful to remember the last time you thought your guy wiped the floor with his opponent. Yeah.

Let me temper all this good news (isn’t that our job?) with the Rasmussen tracker, which finds Obama up 3 in swing states today, and Romney up only one nationally. This has led to a spectacle almost as gratifying as the Gallup results themselves— the left heartily lauding a stand-up guy they’re usually maligning, Scott Rasmussen.

As with all these polls, I recommend waiting a few days to see how this shakes out. But my, if Gallup’s an outlier, there sure have been a lot of outliers lately, haven’t there?

And, I wouldn’t leave you without this nugget. Can you say tied in Wisconsin?

The Presidential race in Wisconsin is essentially tied in a new poll by Marquette Law School, with President Obama at 49% and Mitt Romney at 48%, consistent with gains Romney has made nationally since his first debate with Obama in Denver on Oct. 3.

That is a 10-point swing in Romney’s favor in a respected swing-state poll since the first debate. Is the binder meme the silver bullet that’s going to fix this?

There’s also evidence Romney’s debate performance helped down ticket, with Republican Tommy Thompson gaining on Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the state’s Senate race. Obama leads in favorability— fav/unfav 52/44%— but Romney has picked up some points there, now 43/48% up from 39/53% among registered voters in September.

And, something we keep seeing:

NumbersMuncher, take it away on the samples:

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