Gallup tracker: Romney up 6 with likely voters, up 2 with registered

posted at 2:41 pm on October 17, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

Team Obama better hope that overwhelming 3-6 point debate win Tuesday sinks in with the electorate pretty fast. Can they just re-release the anti-Gallup panic memo or do they have to write a new one?

Among likely voters, Romney leads Obama by six, 51-45:

Likely

But here’s the punch in the gut for the Obama camp. Romney leads by two among the traditionally less Republican registered voter population:

Gallup registered

Yesterday, the lead among likely voters in the Gallup tracker was 4 points, and they were tied among registered voters 47-47, with this note from Gallup:

The effect of the Denver debate on voter preferences is also seen in the trend among registered voters. Prior to the debate, in late September/early October, Obama generally led Romney by five or six points among registered voters. Since the debate, the margin has been three points or less.

We’ll see as the tracking poll’s 7-day window rolls on whether Obama’s debate performance, significantly better than his last, was enough to slow Mittmentum. The Hill notes these numbers do not include data from after Tuesday’s debate.

But the steady movement toward Romney since the first debate suggests that, if this result isn’t an outlier, Obama had to do quite a bit to help himself last night. If it is an outlier, it may make a smallish Obama gain look more significant if Romney’s numbers are simultaneously settling back down to, say, +4. But I’m skeptical that fighting to the slimmest of wins or a near-draw turns the tide. And, even if you’re a sanguine liberal who believes Obama wiped the floor with Romney Tuesday, it might be helpful to remember the last time you thought your guy wiped the floor with his opponent. Yeah.

Let me temper all this good news (isn’t that our job?) with the Rasmussen tracker, which finds Obama up 3 in swing states today, and Romney up only one nationally. This has led to a spectacle almost as gratifying as the Gallup results themselves— the left heartily lauding a stand-up guy they’re usually maligning, Scott Rasmussen.

As with all these polls, I recommend waiting a few days to see how this shakes out. But my, if Gallup’s an outlier, there sure have been a lot of outliers lately, haven’t there?

And, I wouldn’t leave you without this nugget. Can you say tied in Wisconsin?

The Presidential race in Wisconsin is essentially tied in a new poll by Marquette Law School, with President Obama at 49% and Mitt Romney at 48%, consistent with gains Romney has made nationally since his first debate with Obama in Denver on Oct. 3.

That is a 10-point swing in Romney’s favor in a respected swing-state poll since the first debate. Is the binder meme the silver bullet that’s going to fix this?

There’s also evidence Romney’s debate performance helped down ticket, with Republican Tommy Thompson gaining on Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the state’s Senate race. Obama leads in favorability— fav/unfav 52/44%— but Romney has picked up some points there, now 43/48% up from 39/53% among registered voters in September.

And, something we keep seeing:

NumbersMuncher, take it away on the samples:

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Sununu Calls CNN “The Groupie Channel”…LOL.

d1carter on October 17, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Don’t you actually have to have viewers to have groupies?

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Don’t think you quite understood this…THEY ARE the Groupies!

jaygatz33 on October 17, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Obama campaign co-chair Eva Longoria promotes vulgar anti-Romney tweet

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 3:14 PM

In: Eva Longoria

Out: The Dixie Chicks

When will celebrities ever learn that political activism, especially fringism, is a career death wish?

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 3:40 PM

One thing that is driving the polls, like that African American questioners last night, is that people are getting upset about gas at $4 a gallon. Take this point to the bank. And Sununu just said: “He’s killed the coal industry, and tried to sound like a friend of coal last night.” Orwellian. And drilling on federal land, Sununu says, has gone down 40% over 3+ years, not just the 14% decline over 1 year that Romney mentioned last night. Energy voters are turning off to Obama, and tuning into to Romney.

anotherJoe on October 17, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Yep; I can see little Bammie pretending to be a friend of oil and natural gas, nudge-nudge-wink-wink, but to have the chutzpah to try and present himself as a “friend of coal”, -that takes unmitigated gall.

All fancy words for lies.

slickwillie2001 on October 17, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Hillary is a typical left-wing feminist: Riding her husband’s coattails to power, then trying to claim she did it all on her own.

As for Michelle, she is no less a street thug to me than her husband.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Not so much a feminist, methinks …taking that sort of humiliation publicly from her man & preezy and yet sticking to him for obvious future political career considerations/calculations hardly a feminist one make…also, taking that other type of humiliation from the obama campaign during the primaries, yet sticking to him for the same reasons enumerated above, again does not paint the picture of a warrior feminist..rather a pathetic opportunist with not a whole lot of a backbone or self-respect, but a good party marcher nevertheless…Mooch on the other hand is just ….Mooch :)…quite unique in her strange ways…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Sex Binder ‏@AceofSpadesHQ

I don’t want to say it’s over, but Paul Ryan feels so confident he’s campaigning in a “Who Farted?” t shirt.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Increasingly, Obama looks like Scott Farkus getting his a** kicked by Ralphie.

BuckeyeSam on October 17, 2012 at 3:44 PM

As soon as Obama’s devastating performance at last night’s debate factors into the polls, his lead will grow!

/s

Monkeytoe on October 17, 2012 at 3:44 PM

We cannot get complacent. Defeating ANY incumbent president – especially one adored by the MSM – is difficult, expensive, and fraught with peril. So one day at a time.

I wish Romney would add one more bite to his closing argument, particularly at the final debate: Obama genuinely believes that a torrent of words/speeches from him constitutes actions. Obama believes that him saying something makes it so, and we’ve had 4 years of this incessant nonsense and failed leadership.

I don’t think Obama would know what hit him or how to respond. And I absolutely believe that it would help crystallize the thoughts of an undecided voter toward Romney.

matthew8787 on October 17, 2012 at 3:46 PM

I wonder where the 2008 election was at this point? Wasn’t Obama up by 2-4pts all over the place?

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

The RCP average had 0 up 6.7% on 10/17/08, just about a half point off his eventual margin of victory.

JohnGalt23 on October 17, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Sex Binder ‏@AceofSpadesHQ

I don’t want to say it’s over, but Paul Ryan feels so confident he’s campaigning in a “Who Farted?” t shirt.
Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

…now that there is funny!

KOOLAID2 on October 17, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Oh yeah, he’s looking for an aspirin factory in Libya right about now.

Red Creek on October 17, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Let me temper all this good news (isn’t that our job?)

I thought that was Allahpundit’s job, specifically.

JoAnn1965 on October 17, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Romney must not (in the final debate) ask Obama any more questions. All Obama does is lie, filibuster or attempt to take over. It was a tactical mistake that Romney made 2 or 3 times last night.

You indict Obama and his record, don’t engage him. His record is not worthy of rebuttal or conversation.

matthew8787 on October 17, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Now imagine where the numbers would be without Candy Crowlike’s rescues of little Bammie, cutting off Governor Romney, and without her sudden urge to factcheck on the fly?

slickwillie2001 on October 17, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Obama campaign co-chair Eva Longoria promotes vulgar anti-Romney tweet

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 3:14 PM

In: Eva Longoria

Out: The Dixie Chicks

When will celebrities ever learn that political activism, especially fringism, is a career death wish?

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 3:40 PM

More specifically, when will Eva Longoria learn what t*t means in English? :)… We should send her to england, in an exchange program, to improve on her slang :)…I suggest she starts in Brixton or Peckham…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:50 PM

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Basically my point, going by how Hillary and her ilk present themselves.

In sum, feminism in the liberal vein is a total sham.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:51 PM

As a matter of fact, I don’t see how Romney wins by 30 points on the economy yet loses the poll, but I digress.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

My guess is they gave the overall “win” based on style over substance, but it was a total pyrrhic victory.

right of the dial on October 17, 2012 at 3:51 PM

In: Eva LongoriaOut: The Dixie Chicks

When will celebrities ever learn that political activism, especially fringism, is a career death wish?

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Who is this Eva Longoria ?
Why should one pay any attention to her ?

Jabberwock on October 17, 2012 at 3:54 PM

I wish Romney would add one more bite to his closing argument, particularly at the final debate: Obama genuinely believes that a torrent of words/speeches from him constitutes actions. Obama believes that him saying something makes it so, and we’ve had 4 years of this incessant nonsense and failed leadership.

I don’t think Obama would know what hit him or how to respond. And I absolutely believe that it would help crystallize the thoughts of an undecided voter toward Romney.

matthew8787 on October 17, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Now THAT would be perfect! Obama might even take a swing at him for that, considering how Romney pissed him off so bably last night.

kcd on October 17, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 45. Worth saying that no candidate, in the history of Gallup, has ever been above 50% this late and lost.

Also worth noting that Romney’s lead is outside the MOE in Gallups poll.

I see the resident liberal troll still like to pump InTrade.

Here’s a newsflash; InTrade is thinly traded foreign based gambling site, easily manipulated. Looking at the depth chart of bid support on Obama, it could exactly $18,000 to push his contract number below 50% right now. Peanuts. O

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 3:56 PM

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Basically my point, going by how Hillary and her ilk present themselves.

In sum, feminism in the liberal vein is a total sham.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:51 PM

That is quite correct…in fact Camille Paglia exposed that sham long time ago…love or hate her, she was/is dead right about it…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:56 PM

THINK ABOUT THIS:

In the past 4 years Barack Obama has added another $6 trillion to the National Debt.

How much is $6 trillion?

A trillion is a thousand billion, a billion is a thousand million. The average American family makes about $50,000 a year. Do the math. In the past 4 years, Barack Obama has literally spent 120,000,000 times what the average family earns in a year and created ZERO net new jobs!

My God.

Barack literally puts the O in Obama.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:00 PM

THINK ABOUT THIS:

In the past two years, Barack Obama has presented 2 budgets to Congress. In those two years his budgets have received ZERO votes. Not even a single vote from his own party!

Yet Barack Obama wants America to put him in charge of the budget for the next 4 years?

Barack literally puts the O in Obama.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Here’s a newsflash; InTrade is thinly traded foreign based gambling site, easily manipulated. Looking at the depth chart of bid support on Obama, it could exactly $18,000 to push his contract number below 50% right now. Peanuts. O

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 3:56 PM

I trade Forex and stock markets and $18,000 is peanuts…

That is novice day trader in the market…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 4:05 PM

THINK ABOUT THIS:

Barack Obama promised to be a great bipartisan president. To bring us all together.

He passed the $800 billion stimulus package with ZERO Republican votes in the House.

Barack literally puts the O in Obama.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Come November 6th, it is time for us to but the NO in Obama.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:08 PM

You guys been following this???

http://www.buzzfeed.com/wiowsa/one-of-your-presidential-candidates-isnt-being-ho-4afz

This guy says he has info that will change the election…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 4:09 PM

In the current RCP average, the two polls showing Obama up (IBD and ABC) have D+7 and D+9 samples, respectively. In 2008, IBD had relatively low final accuracy and scampered at the last moment to get a little closer to the final result leading to a low consistency rating as well. ABC at this point in 2008 was claiming a 10-point lead for Obama, consistently over-estimated his support, and even their final poll said he would win by 9%, which means that they were right at the edge of their own MoE (a 1-in-20 event). So I would tend to discount their numbers somewhat.

Adjusting IBD and ABC to a more reasonable turnout projection, Romney would have slight lead in both, which would lead to an RCP average of about +2 for Romney. Wish I could explain the difference between Rasmussen and Gallup, though.

HTL on October 17, 2012 at 4:09 PM

** EDIT **

Come November 6th, it is time for us to put the NO in Obama.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:10 PM

wheres gumby

gerrym51 on October 17, 2012 at 4:11 PM

They are going to have to fumigate the living quarters when the Obama’s leave. Can you imagine what Michelle will leave behind?

Tater Salad on October 17, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Good, now let’s see that translate to the Electoral College.

Bob's Kid on October 17, 2012 at 4:11 PM

I trade Forex and stock markets and $18,000 is peanuts…

That is novice day trader in the market…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Yep.

In a rational market where the only motive for a trader would be to make money, InTrade would be useful. Once anyone gets an interest in keeping a position based on other factors (i.e. wanting to keep the apeparance of support for your favored candidate) it ceases to be useful.

Despite all the threats made to Gallup, InTrade is actually the one “poll” that the Obama Campaign can actually control, using very little resources.

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Adjusting IBD and ABC to a more reasonable turnout projection, Romney would have slight lead in both, which would lead to an RCP average of about +2 for Romney. Wish I could explain the difference between Rasmussen and Gallup, though.

That’s easy. For some reason known only to him and the voices in his head, Rasmussen has moved to s Dem +5 weighting. It used to be Dem +3. This is why Rasmussen is so much lower than Gallup. I believe Gallup is taking Republican enthusiasm into account while Rasmussen is not.

As far as Rasmussen’s swing state poll being +3 Obama, that is because Rasmussen is including states previously considered safe for Obama, PA, MI and WI. These are skewing the poll.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:13 PM

They are going to have to fumigate the living quarters when the Obama’s leave. Can you imagine what Michelle will leave behind?

Tater Salad on October 17, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Nothing but crumbs, I fear. The rooms themselves will be stripped down to the bare floors.

Mary in LA on October 17, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Romney must not (in the final debate) ask Obama any more questions. All Obama does is lie, filibuster or attempt to take over. It was a tactical mistake that Romney made 2 or 3 times last night.

You indict Obama and his record, don’t engage him. His record is not worthy of rebuttal or conversation.

matthew8787 on October 17, 2012 at 3:49 PM

The only times Romney asked Obama questions were when Obama interrupted Romney and called him a liar. Romney simply and basically turned and called Obama on it asking him point blank to explain or clarify.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Well the MFM is doing about the same sort of performance they did in ’80. Soon it will be ‘the surprising turnaround’ meme and can Obama be ‘the comeback kid’ meme, while the pollsters realize that their future revenue stream is on the line and that cooking the books might cook their goose.

Expect a sudden Leftist disenchantment with the polls.

ajacksonian on October 17, 2012 at 4:18 PM

That’s easy. For some reason known only to him and the voices in his head, Rasmussen has moved to s Dem +5 weighting. It used to be Dem +3. This is why Rasmussen is so much lower than Gallup. I believe Gallup is taking Republican enthusiasm into account while Rasmussen is not.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Thanks for that info about Rasmussen. If I understand Gallup’s methodology, they ask 7 questions, weight the responses and then if you score a 6 or 7, they count you as a likely voter. Oddly enough, they adjust the responses so as to make it easier for younger voters to score high enough to be classified as a likely voter. So Rasmussen is weighting to an expected turnout ratio, while Gallup is relying on what poll respondents are actually saying. Interesting.

HTL on October 17, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Wow, that’s amazing…sickening, but amazing.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 17, 2012 at 4:20 PM

That’s easy. For some reason known only to him and the voices in his head, Rasmussen has moved to s Dem +5 weighting. It used to be Dem +3. This is why Rasmussen is so much lower than Gallup. I believe Gallup is taking Republican enthusiasm into account while Rasmussen is not.

As far as Rasmussen’s swing state poll being +3 Obama, that is because Rasmussen is including states previously considered safe for Obama, PA, MI and WI. These are skewing the poll.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Rasmussen just a week ago was saying they were expecting a D+3 turnout on election night. So are they using a heavier weighted Dem (d+5) swing state poll vs the (d+3) national poll?

brut4ce on October 17, 2012 at 4:22 PM

“Just the TIPP!”

-gumby

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Food for thought:
Given the ego and arrogance of zerO, these polls coming out of the left leaning networks, polling “experts”, etc, that show Romney tied or exceeding him, is bound to take a toll on him! I’ll bet he’s crying in Mooche’s arms every night! lol!

kcd on October 17, 2012 at 4:24 PM

“Just the TIPP!”

-gumby

Heh.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Oh yeah, he’s looking for an aspirin factory in Libya right about now.

Red Creek on October 17, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Pretty much:

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/10/17/alert-white-house-insider-bin-laden-version-2/#comments

Right Mover on October 17, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Nothing but crumbs, I fear. The rooms themselves will be stripped down to the bare floors.

He’ll take the bust of Winston Churchill with him.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 4:26 PM

They are going to have to fumigate the living quarters when the Obama’s leave. Can you imagine what Michelle will leave behind?

Tater Salad on October 17, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Nothing but crumbs, I fear. The rooms themselves will be stripped down to the bare floors.

Mary in LA on October 17, 2012 at 4:16 PM

The Clinton White House Heist, Part Two.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 4:32 PM

He’ll take the bust of Winston Churchill Reverend Wright with him.

newtopia on October 17, 2012 at 4:26 PM

There, thats more like it.

kcd on October 17, 2012 at 4:34 PM

I see the resident liberal troll still like to pump InTrade.

Here’s a newsflash; InTrade is thinly traded foreign based gambling site, easily manipulated. Looking at the depth chart of bid support on Obama, it could exactly $18,000 to push his contract number below 50% right now. Peanuts. O

Norwegian on October 17, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Yep, the democratics’ favorite Nazi stooge George Soros could do that with money the maid finds in the crack of his sofa.

slickwillie2001 on October 17, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Wow, that’s amazing…sickening, but amazing.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 17, 2012 at 4:20 PM

It’s been debunked. Urban email legend.

WisRich on October 17, 2012 at 4:37 PM

In the dust.

Bmore on October 17, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Sex Binder ‏@AceofSpadesHQ

I don’t want to say it’s over, but Paul Ryan feels so confident he’s campaigning in a “Who Farted?” t shirt.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 3:43 PM

I’ll pay for Obama and Biden to each have an “I’m with Stupid” T-shirt.

Laura in Maryland on October 17, 2012 at 4:37 PM

People are waking up and realizing that the emperor is stark nekked. They’re not even looking for another Reagan, just anybody with a little sense that might keep the Republic from running balls out over the cliff.

Laura in Maryland on October 17, 2012 at 4:40 PM

DMR

In full-page newspaper ad, 13 Iowa voters apologize for supporting Obama in 2008

As well they should!

kcd on October 17, 2012 at 4:48 PM

“Just the TIPP!”

-gumby

The tipp (sic!) of your whaaa?? This is almost as bad as Eva Longoria’s t**t comment :)….

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 4:49 PM

TOTALLY off topic, but has anyone else seen the Geico commercial about: Happier than a witch in a broom factory?

That commercial sooo remindes me of Shrillery, aka Cackles!

kcd on October 17, 2012 at 4:52 PM

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Do you seriously believe this?

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Now where did I put my favorite cartoon character, I think I left it in a thread this morning?

D-fusit on October 17, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Where oh where has my favorite cartoon character?

Come on out Gumby, don’t be afraid. We’ll be nice, I promise.

D-fusit on October 17, 2012 at 4:56 PM

But, this doesn’t take into account the Dem skew in sampling or the qualifiers for who to poll. So there could be even more of a swing to Romney. It sure does make quite a difference when the public sees the Messiah’s incompetence and impotence on full display!
Update on:How to take on the Obama Enemy media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 17, 2012 at 5:01 PM

The small green clay figurine never showed I take it. Well just in case its late and hasn’t had a chance to read the entire post. Here.

Bmore on October 17, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Do you seriously believe this?

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 4:53 PM

I am definitely curious…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 5:03 PM

MGardner

The count down clock ticks down before the next debate, which is surprising. I would expect it to come out closer to election day. But it could also be just another rathergate nothingburger.

Red Creek on October 17, 2012 at 5:05 PM

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 5:03 PM

If there really was something, don’t you think it would have already been released? Obama’s already thrown the kitchen sink at Romney.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 5:05 PM

I believe it’s going against Obama and it will be this transcript…

A lowly New York Times reporter gets a document handed to him. It is a transcript of a meeting in which Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were present, in which security concerns in Libya were discussed including the need for boots on the ground. Biden’s debate with Paul Ryan has left open a serious problem for the Administration, and right now there appears to be a struggle that could end Barack’s chance for re-election.

Just a hunch…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Folks, stop obsessing over the stupid polls whether it is favoring us or against us. Nothing has changed in term of the reality on the ground and the metrics of winning and losing the elections…

First, the reality on the ground is very much against Obama. Very slow GDP growth, very high unemployment, very high gas prices and food, insane debt and deficit, disastrous foreign policy, and of course Obama utterly failed record on all important issues…

Second, the two most important metrics to determine the winner and loser of the elections are very much against Obama. These metrics are the enthusiasm of the Obama base from 2008 and the numbers of Obama White Voters from 2008 who will be voting for Romney in 2012. If only 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with only 10% of Obama White Voters from 2008 switching for Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose the elections…

I am certain that at least 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 are going to stay home in 2012 and at least 10% of Obama White Voters from 2008 are going to switch for Romney in 2012 and hence Obama is certain to lose the elections…

mnjg on October 17, 2012 at 5:24 PM

If there really was something, don’t you think it would have already been released? Obama’s already thrown the kitchen sink at Romney.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 5:05 PM

…especially since voting started a week ago.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 5:26 PM

If Romney is truly up by 6 then it is over.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 5:37 PM

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 5:03 PM

If there really was something, don’t you think it would have already been released? Obama’s already thrown the kitchen sink at Romney.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 5:05 PM

One looks like a tax form. Correspondence between Romney and the IRS. Price Waterhouse wouldn’t risk their reputation on a lie, they just can’t let it go. Find the data to fit the hypothesis.

tdarrington on October 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

It is a transcript of a meeting in which Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were present, in which security concerns in Libya were discussed including the need for boots on the ground

I don’t know… I doubt that they invite Slow Joe to real meetings…

bofh on October 17, 2012 at 5:41 PM

What no Gumby ? I wonder why./

What a clown.

CW on October 17, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Where is Goofball and Poopey to tell us who any second now oblamer is going to jet into the lead and leave us all crying in our beer?

jistincase on October 17, 2012 at 5:58 PM

If there really was something, don’t you think it would have already been released? Obama’s already thrown the kitchen sink at Romney.

wargamer6 on October 17, 2012 at 5:05 PM

There’s still value in a surprise in the day or two before the real election, so that the other side doesn’t have time to formulate a response and get it out.

slickwillie2001 on October 17, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Speaking of enthusiasm or lack thereof. Did you notice the undecided’s in Nevada on Foxnews last night? The ones who said they decided to vote for Obama barely raised their hands. The ones who after the debate decided on Romney thrust their hands high.

It matters.

MaggiePoo on October 17, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Well with regards to the Rasmussen swing state poll you have to keep in mind that Rasmussen is now including states not considered even within reach until just recently, like PA and MI. The fact that these are even a part of a swing state poll is terrible news for Obama.

Nevertheless their very presence in the poll is dragging the overall number down. Clearly if Obama loses either PA or MI he is finished.

Also I have read that Rasmussen is now assuming a D +5 turnout model which is somewhat inexplicable but that would explain why Romney has stalled in that poll. Turnout this year will be nowhere near D +5.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 7:19 PM

The only thing that matters is for every one of you conservatives get off your butt and VOTE.

If we all vote it does not matter what the left says or does.

We WIN.

RockyJ. on October 17, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I was worried a bit about that gosh awful Rasmussen Swing State poll. But, the comments here shed some light. Does anyone know if the Dem +5 ratio is a recent change? Or what he has used all along?

Minorcan Maven on October 17, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Minorcan Maven on October 17, 2012 at 10:22 PM

from what i have been able to ascertain Rasmussan is constantly polling voter id.

Remember in the six weeks prior to the first debate obama was up.

on 10/1 Rasmussen started using voter id for sept-a month that more people were id as dems.

thats why starting 10/1 he went to dem+5( as it was explained to me)

thats why suddenly it seems like Obama doing better.

it sounds like witchcraft

gerrym51 on October 17, 2012 at 10:39 PM

gerrym51-Yeah! It does sound like that! Alright. That explains the numbers. Trend is still troubling. But, time will tell. Thanks very much!! :)

Minorcan Maven on October 17, 2012 at 10:48 PM

One looks like a tax form. Correspondence between Romney and the IRS. Price Waterhouse wouldn’t risk their reputation on a lie, they just can’t let it go. Find the data to fit the hypothesis.
tdarrington on October 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Read the @octsurprise tweet history. Plenty of hints that it’s dirt on the One.

Lord of the Wings on October 17, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Now it’s a seven-point lead for Romney, who is over 50%.

J Baustian on October 18, 2012 at 1:25 PM

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