Gallup tracker: Romney up 6 with likely voters, up 2 with registered

posted at 2:41 pm on October 17, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

Team Obama better hope that overwhelming 3-6 point debate win Tuesday sinks in with the electorate pretty fast. Can they just re-release the anti-Gallup panic memo or do they have to write a new one?

Among likely voters, Romney leads Obama by six, 51-45:

Likely

But here’s the punch in the gut for the Obama camp. Romney leads by two among the traditionally less Republican registered voter population:

Gallup registered

Yesterday, the lead among likely voters in the Gallup tracker was 4 points, and they were tied among registered voters 47-47, with this note from Gallup:

The effect of the Denver debate on voter preferences is also seen in the trend among registered voters. Prior to the debate, in late September/early October, Obama generally led Romney by five or six points among registered voters. Since the debate, the margin has been three points or less.

We’ll see as the tracking poll’s 7-day window rolls on whether Obama’s debate performance, significantly better than his last, was enough to slow Mittmentum. The Hill notes these numbers do not include data from after Tuesday’s debate.

But the steady movement toward Romney since the first debate suggests that, if this result isn’t an outlier, Obama had to do quite a bit to help himself last night. If it is an outlier, it may make a smallish Obama gain look more significant if Romney’s numbers are simultaneously settling back down to, say, +4. But I’m skeptical that fighting to the slimmest of wins or a near-draw turns the tide. And, even if you’re a sanguine liberal who believes Obama wiped the floor with Romney Tuesday, it might be helpful to remember the last time you thought your guy wiped the floor with his opponent. Yeah.

Let me temper all this good news (isn’t that our job?) with the Rasmussen tracker, which finds Obama up 3 in swing states today, and Romney up only one nationally. This has led to a spectacle almost as gratifying as the Gallup results themselves— the left heartily lauding a stand-up guy they’re usually maligning, Scott Rasmussen.

As with all these polls, I recommend waiting a few days to see how this shakes out. But my, if Gallup’s an outlier, there sure have been a lot of outliers lately, haven’t there?

And, I wouldn’t leave you without this nugget. Can you say tied in Wisconsin?

The Presidential race in Wisconsin is essentially tied in a new poll by Marquette Law School, with President Obama at 49% and Mitt Romney at 48%, consistent with gains Romney has made nationally since his first debate with Obama in Denver on Oct. 3.

That is a 10-point swing in Romney’s favor in a respected swing-state poll since the first debate. Is the binder meme the silver bullet that’s going to fix this?

There’s also evidence Romney’s debate performance helped down ticket, with Republican Tommy Thompson gaining on Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the state’s Senate race. Obama leads in favorability— fav/unfav 52/44%— but Romney has picked up some points there, now 43/48% up from 39/53% among registered voters in September.

And, something we keep seeing:

NumbersMuncher, take it away on the samples:

Breaking on Hot Air

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BOOM

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Obama is WAY ahead in one category.

EXECUTIVE ORDERS ISSUED……
Teddy Roosevelt:…………… 3
Others Prior To FDR:………. NONE
FDR:…………………………….11 in 16 years
Truman:……………………… 5 in 7 years
Ike:…………………………….. 2 in 8 years
JFK:…………………………… 4 in 3 years
LBJ:…………………………… 4 in 5 years
Nixon:……………………….. 1 in 6 years
Ford:………………………….. 3 in 2 years
Carter:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Reagan:………………………. 5 in 8 years
Bush 1:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Clinton:……………………….15 in 8 years
Bush 2:………………………..62 in 8 years
Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Few cracks starting to form in the ice sheet.

Avalanche to come?

blatantblue on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

All this good news does is make my inner Eeyore more Eeyorish.

Please stop.

Anyone who cheers for the Cubs or the Vikings knows how this ends…

Bruno Strozek on October 17, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Atomic.

viking01 on October 17, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Impossible! The trolls here have been saying all day Obama is waaaaay ahead by every possible measure.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 2:45 PM

But my, if Gallup’s an outlier, there sure have been a lot of outliers lately, haven’t there?

when you are seeing many of them, they are no longer outliers, they become, in aggregate, the average!

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:45 PM

It’s over, in fact is was over about 2 1/2 years ago…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Rasmussen is still within 1 point … Romney 49%, Obama 48%.

aunursa on October 17, 2012 at 2:46 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Big stat in WI poll thats happening everywhere. RT @MULawPoll In new poll, Romney rating as strong leader is 55%, up from 47% two wks ago.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:46 PM

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Wow, that is telling. He really wants to be a dictator.

22044 on October 17, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Marquette poll that has Obama’s lead going from 11 to 1 has a D+3 sample (was D+6 last time). WI was D+6 in 08, D+1 in 2010, R+1 in recall.

if it was R+1 most recently, could we be seeing a 3pt Romney win in Wisconsin????? huh?!

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:46 PM

IMO the polls have been inaccurate for months but the chickens are coming home to roost- or at least to give polling companies some credibility. In short, people have been ready to fire Obama for months and the debate in Denver was just the excuse for a bit more honesty in the polling.

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Plus: Tied in Wisconsin??

Greg Gutfeld’s Friday nights.

redzap on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Well, the problem Obama faces is that while he got the “win” last night in small sample of registered (not even likely) voters, he was absolutely CRUSHED in the internals on the issues that matter, economy, deficit, jobs and healthcare.

As a matter of fact, I don’t see how Romney wins by 30 points on the economy yet loses the poll, but I digress.

Also, all of the argument out there right now is on Libya. If America wasn’t paying attention on Libya before they are now. Unfortunately for Obama, the next debate is an hour and a half of nothing but foreign policy without idiot liberal plants asking Romney gotcha questions.

So, Libya has now become a HUGE issue and America will be watching the next debate to see if Obama can wiggle out of it.

mitchellvii on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Report that Obama campaign pulling out of FL and NC?

mwbri on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Polls are all over the place. Not trusting Gallup at all right now. I sense a setup by Gallup for polls going forward where Gallup will show a post debate Obama surge, whether real or not.

bgibbs1000 on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

That is a 10-point swing in Romney’s favor in a respected swing-state poll since the first debate. Is the binder meme the silver bullet that’s going to fix this?

so, what am I? chopped liver?
/Big Bird

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Why do you insist on making Gumby’s butt hurt, MKH?

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Why are the libs, and ABR nutalls (But I repeat myself), not responding to the Axelrod emergency signal?

cozmo on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Also remember Gallup tends to be pro-Dem in their polling…just look at all the historic data from previous elections.

tkyang99 on October 17, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 45. Worth saying that no candidate, in the history of Gallup, has ever been above 50% this late and lost.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:48 PM

BOOM

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Not so fast! If the polling does not include Tuesday, we don’t know how the Honey Boo Boo endorsement helped Obama.

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Karl Rove was on Fox saying that no one with a 6-point lead in Gallup at this point has ever lost an election.

TarheelBen on October 17, 2012 at 2:48 PM

One thing that is driving the polls, like that African American questioners last night, is that people are getting upset about gas at $4 a gallon. Take this point to the bank. And Sununu just said: “He’s killed the coal industry, and tried to sound like a friend of coal last night.” Orwellian. And drilling on federal land, Sununu says, has gone down 40% over 3+ years, not just the 14% decline over 1 year that Romney mentioned last night. Energy voters are turning off to Obama, and tuning into to Romney.

anotherJoe on October 17, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Outside the margin of error, baby!

KingGold on October 17, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Guessing the media will try and horse race it to the very end- all comes down to turnout and I love our chances there.

jjshaka on October 17, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Sex Binder ‏@AceofSpadesHQ

Even in Registered Voters, Romney now leads 48-46.

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

As with all these polls, I recommend waiting a few days to see how this shakes out.

I recommend waiting three weeks.

msupertas on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

VorDaj – the trend since Bush 1 has been very bad indeed.

JEM on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Why are the libs, and ABR nutalls (But I repeat myself), not responding to the Axelrod emergency signal?

cozmo on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Because sixth period isn’t over until 3pm. Duh!

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Moochelle just said in a speech (Drudge) that “We’re going to party hard November seventh.” Keep talking. Keep talking. Invites to Beyoncee and Jay-Z gone out, have they?

Marcus on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

All this good news does is make my inner Eeyore more Eeyorish.

Please stop.

Anyone who cheers for the Cubs or the Vikings knows how this ends…

Bruno Strozek on October 17, 2012

Ha, I tried to temper it! Trust me, I take nothing for granted.

Mary Katharine Ham on October 17, 2012 at 2:51 PM

If we pencil in FL and NC as red, then Mitt is at 235 EVs, then is it is only two mid-size and one small swing state to win the whole thing. Unleash the death star on PA, MI, and WI. Even if you lose MI and PA, make Obama defend his turf there.

mwbri on October 17, 2012 at 2:51 PM

What’s up with the Gallup unemployment number?!!!??!! 7.3%!!!???

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 17, 2012 at 2:51 PM

all comes down to turnout and I love our chances there.

jjshaka on October 17, 2012 at 2:49 PM

I will be standing in line when the polls open at 6am. I’m that eager to cast my vote for Mitt Romney.

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 2:52 PM

I don’t trust Gallup. This may be a setup to claim in a few days that Obama won the delete and big time. What do you want to bet that in a few days Gallup will have the race very close?

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:52 PM

This is for Politricks and HotAirLib only.

Now that Obama faces a real possibility of losing the White House, it gives me no pleasure to say “I told you so.” Okay, maybe just a tiny bit of pleasure. In recent days my case has been strengthened by three pieces of evidence.

Schadenfreude on October 17, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Obama is WAY ahead in one category.

EXECUTIVE ORDERS ISSUED……
Teddy Roosevelt:…………… 3
Others Prior To FDR:………. NONE
FDR:…………………………….11 in 16 years
Truman:……………………… 5 in 7 years
Ike:…………………………….. 2 in 8 years
JFK:…………………………… 4 in 3 years
LBJ:…………………………… 4 in 5 years
Nixon:……………………….. 1 in 6 years
Ford:………………………….. 3 in 2 years
Carter:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Reagan:………………………. 5 in 8 years
Bush 1:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Clinton:……………………….15 in 8 years
Bush 2:………………………..62 in 8 years
Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

THAT’S Obama’s second term agenda right there. EO anything that Congress won’t give him.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Karl Rove was on Fox saying that no one with a 6-point lead in Gallup at this point has ever lost an election.

TarheelBen on October 17, 2012 at 2:48 PM

I wonder where the 2008 election was at this point? Wasn’t Obama up by 2-4pts all over the place?

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Moochelle just said in a speech (Drudge) that “We’re going to party hard November seventh.” Keep talking. Keep talking. Invites to Beyoncee and Jay-Z gone out, have they?

Marcus on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

She will spend all of your and your kid’s money she can between Nov 6, 2012 and January 21, 2013.

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Sununu Calls CNN “The Groupie Channel”…LOL.

d1carter on October 17, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Don’t you actually have to have viewers to have groupies?

Happy Nomad on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

some tossup states are going to start leaning romney, maybe?

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

You par-tay, Moochelle. After January 21st, you’ll be lucky if you get to go to Dollywood.

kingsjester on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Registered voters… Likely voters…

Important groups to judge the value of the poll results.

But, another group are voters that show up at the polls uninformed on the issues or the positions of the two major party candidates. Their vote counts just the same as all of you that have watched, read and blogged for months on this election.

There should be a “stay home” push for this last group. Go to the mall. Practice your new skateboard move. Think of Nov. 6 as a kind of holiday. If you know nothing, just stay away from the voting booth. If you are ignorant, and you know it, it’s in your best interest to vote “not present.”

KCsecurity1976 on October 17, 2012 at 2:55 PM

“Exponentially growing nuclear chain reaction!”

gummedbrain

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 2:55 PM

We’re going to party hard November seventh.” Keep talking. Keep talking. Invites to Beyoncee and Jay-Z gone out, have they?

Marcus on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Is that what mother’s of teens/tweens s’posed to be a doin’? Are they gonna get up on the table and do a rendition of “Where yo dollah at?”

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Now where did I put my favorite cartoon character, I think I left it in a thread this morning?

Theses polls are so awesome On Nov 7th We’re Going To Party Hard

Yep, all the way to Hawaii.

D-fusit on October 17, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Time for David Axelrod to stiff arm Gallup.

COgirl on October 17, 2012 at 2:56 PM

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Wow, that is telling. He really wants to be a dictator.

22044 on October 17, 2012 at 2:46 PM

I think Hitler himself “only” had about 200 executive orders.

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

I wonder where the 2008 election was at this point? Wasn’t Obama up by 2-4pts all over the place?

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

RCP shows numbers from 3 to 14, but Obama+5 or 6 seems to be the consensus for mid-October 2008.

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

The only fallback that the Obama’s will have is the same thing they started with…..racism. It eats them from the inside out and they’ll grow old with a bitter, stony, cold heart never knowing the truth.

sad.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

We’re going to party hard November seventh.” Keep talking. Keep talking. Invites to Beyoncee and Jay-Z gone out, have they?

Marcus on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Nothing is more foul than a 50 year old woman trying to act like she’s 16 again.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Obama is WAY ahead in one category.

EXECUTIVE ORDERS ISSUED……
Teddy Roosevelt:…………… 3
Others Prior To FDR:………. NONE
FDR:…………………………….11 in 16 years
Truman:……………………… 5 in 7 years
Ike:…………………………….. 2 in 8 years
JFK:…………………………… 4 in 3 years
LBJ:…………………………… 4 in 5 years
Nixon:……………………….. 1 in 6 years
Ford:………………………….. 3 in 2 years
Carter:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Reagan:………………………. 5 in 8 years
Bush 1:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Clinton:……………………….15 in 8 years
Bush 2:………………………..62 in 8 years
Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Got a link to that?

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:58 PM

I still think it will be Romney by 5 on Nov 6.

Charlemagne on October 17, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Rasmussen has been all over the place lately. Wild swings and all. We can’t get complacent. These results are favorable, but we need to still make sure we do everything we can to push (drag?) Romney over the finish line.

I’m still worried about Ohio continuing to be suicidal in their love for socialism.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 17, 2012 at 3:00 PM

As I said on the other thread, remember that Gallup changed its sampling methodology 2 weeks ago to include MORE minority voters. If they were right, then this poll is bad for Obama. If they were wrong and should have kept their old sample, then this poll is catastrophic for Obama because it means Romnmey’s lead is at or just outside the margin of error.

At any rate, it’s a big old dump right in the middle of Team Obama’s debate spinning.

rockmom on October 17, 2012 at 3:00 PM

THAT’S Obama’s second term agenda right there. EO anything that Congress won’t give him.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

The media was almost apoplectic over Bush the Younger’s use of the EO. The fact that they ignore entirely what Obama has done with the EO is a glaring implication of their bias.

NotCoach on October 17, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Moochelle just said in a speech (Drudge) that “We’re going to party hard November seventh.” Keep talking. Keep talking. Invites to Beyoncee and Jay-Z gone out, have they?

Marcus on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Oh, they’ll be partying hard. I sense a lot of drinking will be going on in that White House after Romney’s declared the winner. I hope Obama realizes he’s got a major issue on his plate with Taxmageddon even after he loses the election.

Doughboy on October 17, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Report that Obama campaign pulling out of FL and NC?

mwbri on October 17, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Link? Twice now I’ve seen this mentioned in the comments. If so, that is HUGE – Florida specifically, NC was always a goner. It’s bigger than McCain pulling out of Michigan early in 2008 – it means Obama is limiting himself to an absolute ceiling of 303. With VA and CO not looking too healthy for them right now, their margin for error appears smaller every day.

Compare to Pennsylvania coming into play, which ups Romney’s potential number to 321.

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 3:01 PM

In the history of Gallup, no presidential candidate, who is above 50% in mid-October in its poll, has gone on to lose the election in November.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#1

Resist We Much on October 17, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Rasmussen includes MI and PA in his battleground list. It makes his aggregate battleground number look better for Obama than it really is since those states aren’t really battlegrounds (Mitt isn’t even battling in PA).

forest on October 17, 2012 at 3:01 PM

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Staggering! Doesn’t make dubya look too good, either.

a capella on October 17, 2012 at 3:02 PM

As with all these polls, I recommend waiting a few days to see how this shakes out.

I recommend waiting three weeks.

msupertas on October 17, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Lol :)

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:02 PM

I wonder where the 2008 election was at this point? Wasn’t Obama up by 2-4pts all over the place?

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:54 PM

October 18, 2008

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111229/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Lead.aspx

Obama’s eight-point lead among registered voters is similar to his margin among this group over the last several days. Gallup’s likely voter scenarios show a closer race. Gallup’s expanded likely voter model, based on respondents’ answers to questions about current interest in the election and intention to vote, shows a 50% to 46% race

mudskipper on October 17, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 3:01 PM

I think it is an Obama PAC that’s pulling out of FL–not the official campaign. I can’t remember where I read this. If I find it, I’ll link.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Rasmussen includes MI and PA in his battleground list. It makes his aggregate battleground number look better for Obama than it really is since those states aren’t really battlegrounds (Mitt isn’t even battling in PA).

forest on October 17, 2012 at 3:01 PM

If he has enough money, I hope he does. Either PA or MI going red would make it impossible for Obama to win.

Doughboy on October 17, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Good grief. EVery time I check RR is up 2 more points!

Default time, O?

PattyJ on October 17, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Nothing is more foul than a 50 year old woman trying to act like she’s 16 again.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 2:58 PM

If she can’t look it, anyway. My previous boss could easily pass for ~25, but she’s 50 if not older.

MelonCollie on October 17, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Rasmussen has been all over the place lately. Wild swings and all. We can’t get complacent. These results are favorable, but we need to still make sure we do everything we can to push (drag?) Romney over the finish line.

I’m still worried about Ohio continuing to be suicidal in their love for socialism.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 17, 2012 at 3:00 PM

True…The OIho is the one state whose citizenry perplexes me with their vote preference…while you expect this from CO and NE, given their proximity to fhe W Coast and the huge numbers of implants from california + the hispanic popuation there, don’t quite see any explanation for the ohioans rationalization of their vote..ok, I get that their unemployment rate there is lower than the national average, but still…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:09 PM

The only fallback that the Obama’s will have is the same thing they started with…..racism. It eats them from the inside out and they’ll grow old with a bitter, stony, cold heart never knowing the truth.

sad.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

True. But I do not think that the Obama’s will be done should he lose. Certainly not him.
I would not be surprised to see him make a run at Gen Sec of UN.
He could exact significant revenge upon us from that position.

Jabberwock on October 17, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Nothing is more foul than a 50 year old woman trying to act like she’s 16 again.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Mentally, she never passed 16.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 3:10 PM

If she can’t look it, anyway. My previous boss could easily pass for ~25, but she’s 50 if not older.

MelonCollie on October 17, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Looks are one thing, and some women can pass muster while others can’t.

But, realistically–if you know a woman is 50 and she acts like a teenybopper, how worthwhile is she when the rest of us are genuine adults who have been around for a while and expect from the First Lady of the United States?

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:12 PM

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Don’t trust the e-mails

MNHawk on October 17, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Thats approaching nearly one a day.

So let it be written, so let it be done.

BobMbx on October 17, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Obama is WAY ahead in one category.

EXECUTIVE ORDERS ISSUED……
Teddy Roosevelt:…………… 3
Others Prior To FDR:………. NONE
FDR:…………………………….11 in 16 years

Bush 2:………………………..62 in 8 years
Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

If reelected that number will explode, as Dear Leader’s inner Chavez blossoms.

farsighted on October 17, 2012 at 3:13 PM

The only fallback that the Obama’s will have is the same thing they started with…..racism. It eats them from the inside out and they’ll grow old with a bitter, stony, cold heart never knowing the truth.

sad.

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

It has already started.

Obama campaign co-chair Eva Longoria promotes vulgar anti-Romney tweet

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Got a link to that?

Chuck Schick on October 17, 2012 at 2:58 PM

No, he doesn’t because it’s not true.

Hey, I’m all in on Romney but I just did a google search and the only way he get’s to that number is by playing some EO jujitsu.

WisRich on October 17, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Team Obama better hope that overwhelming 3-6 point debate win Tuesday sinks in with the electorate pretty fast.

I am not so sure it is that simple..Romney did very well in the internals in the polls. He showed majority support on issues such as the economy and leadership. Really, the polls seem strange..on one hand a plurality goes to Obama for speaking in complete sentences and staying awake and yet Romney wins on the issues. Odd.

Terrye on October 17, 2012 at 3:15 PM

I don’t think it is too early to start chilling the champaign. I can almost hear the corks popping coast to coast on Nov. 6th.

bopbottle on October 17, 2012 at 3:17 PM

I think it is an Obama PAC that’s pulling out of FL–not the official campaign. I can’t remember where I read this. If I find it, I’ll link.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 3:05 PM

.
For all the talk about FLA being a swing state- Obummer Barely won it in the Divinity of the 2008 coming of the Emperor.

If Romney is up 4-6 over bammy at this point, Mitt has at least 53% right now in FLA.

Yes, thats lights out time.

FlaMurph on October 17, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Rasmussen has been all over the place lately. Wild swings and all. We can’t get complacent. These results are favorable, but we need to still make sure we do everything we can to push (drag?) Romney over the finish line.

I’m still worried about Ohio continuing to be suicidal in their love for socialism.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 17, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Don’t worry. Ohio will go to Romney in the end. Other than the People’s Republics of Cleveland and Toledo, Obama has no steady base of support here. I believe the eastern coal regions won’t want to cut off their own noses to spite their faces.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Mentally, she never passed 16.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Sad, isn’t it?

In my lifetime, there has been Mamie, Jackie, Lady Byrd, and all the way to Barbara Bush. Then, after a skip, Laura Bush. Heck–Rosiland Carter was a fitting First Lady for our United States.

This one…She’s no lady in any sense of the term, in my view. Can you imagine Pat Nixon talking like this? And her hubby was a crook!

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:18 PM

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

True. But I do not think that the Obama’s will be done should he lose. Certainly not him.
I would not be surprised to see him make a run at Gen Sec of UN.
He could exact significant revenge upon us from that position.

Jabberwock on October 17, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Only if he has a Dem preezy on this side here, to work with…otherwise a Rep one can easily shut him out, like veto-ing a lot in the Security Council, or simply not signing up to and/or not adhering to treaties, agreements or resolutions that go directly against our interests (even Harper of Canada flipped the bird to the international greenies by pulling out of Tokio, for instance)…remember, if you do not adhere to these clasterfark of intl agreements/treaties, they are not binding…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:19 PM

I think it is an Obama PAC that’s pulling out of FL–not the official campaign. I can’t remember where I read this. If I find it, I’ll link.

INC on October 17, 2012 at 3:05 PM

You’re right…Priorities USA did. They may consider a visit or two in the final few weeks, but it seems like it’s been awhile since Obama was in FL. That says volumes.

changer1701 on October 17, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Sad, isn’t it?

In my lifetime, there has been Mamie, Jackie, Lady Byrd, and all the way to Barbara Bush. Then, after a skip, Laura Bush. Heck–Rosiland Carter was a fitting First Lady for our United States.

This one…She’s no lady in any sense of the term, in my view. Can you imagine Pat Nixon talking like this? And her hubby was a crook!

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Very sad. Because it’s so unseemly to attack a First Lady yet between Hillary and Michelle, you can’t help it. They’ve been classless and extremely political.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 3:22 PM

changer1701 on October 17, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Thanks!

INC on October 17, 2012 at 3:23 PM

No, he doesn’t because it’s not true.

Hey, I’m all in on Romney but I just did a google search and the only way he get’s to that number is by playing some EO jujitsu.

WisRich on October 17, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Well,….crap! Then, I got suckered. Oh well:)

a capella on October 17, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Obama is WAY ahead in one category.

EXECUTIVE ORDERS ISSUED……
Teddy Roosevelt:…………… 3
Others Prior To FDR:………. NONE
FDR:…………………………….11 in 16 years
Truman:……………………… 5 in 7 years
Ike:…………………………….. 2 in 8 years
JFK:…………………………… 4 in 3 years
LBJ:…………………………… 4 in 5 years
Nixon:……………………….. 1 in 6 years
Ford:………………………….. 3 in 2 years
Carter:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Reagan:………………………. 5 in 8 years
Bush 1:………………………. 3 in 4 years
Clinton:……………………….15 in 8 years
Bush 2:………………………..62 in 8 years
Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

This has been going around for a while. Snopes says BS.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/executiveorders.asp

Brundlefly on October 17, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Bush 2:………………………..62 in 8 years
Obama:………………………923 in 3½ years!

VorDaj on October 17, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Plenty of time for E.O.s, but no time for Intell or Cabinet meetings, getting with HIS Jobs Council or being available for Press conferences.

If reelected that number will explode, as Dear Leader’s inner Chavez blossoms.

farsighted on October 17, 2012 at 3:13 PM

.
President Super Mitt will have close to an equal number though, as he will need an E.O. to overwrite every E.O. Ocommie has edickted.

and yes, Precedents will have consequences, oh whiny LSM.

FlaMurph on October 17, 2012 at 3:24 PM

For all the talk about FLA being a swing state- Obummer Barely won it in the Divinity of the 2008 coming of the Emperor.

If Romney is up 4-6 over bammy at this point, Mitt has at least 53% right now in FLA.

Yes, thats lights out time.

FlaMurph on October 17, 2012 at 3:17 PM

PVI in Florida is R+2. That means in a 50/50 race, Romney would take Florida 52-48.

At this point the question is less whether Romney wins Florida, and more whether he wins by a huge enough margin that his coattails can drag Mack along with him.

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Team Obama better hope that overwhelming 3-6 point debate win Tuesday sinks in with the electorate pretty fast.

Yeah, this won’t matter because Romney is winning on the issues and Obama had such a poor first debate, it was impossible for him to have a repeat performance…

The overwhelming victory in the first debate gave Romney a 5-6 point bump…

So a slight “victory” by the president will maybe give him maybe a 1 point bounce if that…

Don’t forget these undecided usually break for the challenger and just because someone “won” the debate doesn’t mean they will vote for that person as seen in the MSNBC focus group which had more people leaning Romney after the debate and the Luntz group overwhelmingly went toward Romney…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Very sad. Because it’s so unseemly to attack a First Lady yet between Hillary and Michelle, you can’t help it. They’ve been classless and extremely political.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 3:22 PM

I don’t like thinking this way, believe me. But there are comparisons, to better and more preferable First Ladies.

Hillary is a typical left-wing feminist: Riding her husband’s coattails to power, then trying to claim she did it all on her own.

As for Michelle, she is no less a street thug to me than her husband.

Liam on October 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Don’t trust the e-mails

MNHawk on October 17, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Ah, thank you. That tells a different story.

a capella on October 17, 2012 at 3:27 PM

IMO the polls have been inaccurate for months but the chickens are coming home to roost- or at least to give polling companies some credibility. In short, people have been ready to fire Obama for months and the debate in Denver was just the excuse for a bit more honesty in the polling.

This!!!

buckichick1 on October 17, 2012 at 3:27 PM

PVI in Florida is R+2. That means in a 50/50 race, Romney would take Florida 52-48.

At this point the question is less whether Romney wins Florida, and more whether he wins by a huge enough margin that his coattails can drag Mack along with him.

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Agreed.

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Don’t worry. Ohio will go to Romney in the end. Other than the People’s Republics of Cleveland and Toledo, Obama has no steady base of support here. I believe the eastern coal regions won’t want to cut off their own noses to spite their faces.

Bitter Clinger on October 17, 2012 at 3:17 PM

.
Commiehoga County.

FlaMurph on October 17, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Yeah, this won’t matter because Romney is winning on the issues and Obama had such a poor first debate, it was impossible for him to have a repeat performance…

The overwhelming victory in the first debate gave Romney a 5-6 point bump…

So a slight “victory” by the president will maybe give him maybe a 1 point bounce if that…

Don’t forget these undecided usually break for the challenger and just because someone “won” the debate doesn’t mean they will vote for that person as seen in the MSNBC focus group which had more people leaning Romney after the debate and the Luntz group overwhelmingly went toward Romney…

MGardner on October 17, 2012 at 3:26 PM

This was the sort of debate where both sides partisans are pleased by their guy. For independents and the voters whose minds can be shifted, it’s a different story. Those numbers on the economy don’t look good for Obama there, and the one issue the left considers a victory, Libya, can’t be discussed without including a look at the moderator bias.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this slight “victory” means a 1 point shift to Romney. After all, Gallup is already factoring in results that include Biden’s similar debate performance, and that didn’t hand them any sort of bounce.

Gingotts on October 17, 2012 at 3:32 PM

ted c on October 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

It has already started.

Obama campaign co-chair Eva Longoria promotes vulgar anti-Romney tweet

JPeterman on October 17, 2012 at 3:14 PM

I wonder if she’s got a clue of what that term means in British English…technically, she qualifies to be one, Romney not so much :)…but then longoria peaked with that Housewives show a while back, so go figure…she’s not getting any younger and the rating problem is not going away…

jimver on October 17, 2012 at 3:33 PM

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