Romney hits 50%, leads by 4 in PPP/Daily Kos national poll

posted at 10:01 am on October 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Last week, I approvingly linked the Daily Kos’ report on the PPP poll it commissioned when it showed Mitt Romney leading by two point, 49/47.  Markos Moulitsas responded with some snark on Twitter, wondering if I’d link future polling from his site, and I said I probably would.  Since I am a man of my word, here is the latest Daily Kos/PPP weekly polling result — which turned out to be even more painful than the first for Markos:

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)

At a time when other polls are moving back in the president’s direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:

Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

That Sunday sample, about a quarter of the total, was entirely responsible for Romney’s favorable numbers. That’s why the good pollsters collect data over multiple days, to smooth out such irregularities. And at 400 respondents (or so), Sunday had a single-day MoE of 4.9 percent. Lots of polls float around with worse. On the other hand, Saturday’s sample MoE was 3.92 percent, while Friday’s was 3.97 percent. And with no external news even suggesting the big Sunday collapse, it certainly smells like an outlier.

You know an election is going poorly when an outfit commissions a poll, and then tries to argue that part of the results from its own poll is an outlier.  Those Sunday results probably are an outlier, but they’re eye-popping nonetheless.  On a day when conservatives tend not to conduct a lot of political business, the responders gave Romney a twelve-point lead over Obama.  As Markos notes, that sample has a margin of error of less than five points, too, with roughly 400 responses.

The news gets worse for Obama in the subsamples:

Swing state Obama 47, Romney 50
Blue state Obama 52, Romney 45
Red State Obama 40, Romney 56

Two weeks ago, it was Obama leading Romney 50-46 in the Swing states. But he was also winning Blue states by 56-37, and losing Red states by just 41-52. Actually, the change in Red states is smaller (-5) compared to Blue states (-12) and Swing states (-7).

This lends some credence to the Mitt-mentum theory of a preference cascade already beginning.  That’s not to say the election is over, but it does mean that it’s no longer Mitt Romney that needs a game changer.  It’s Barack Obama.


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Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Yep, just showing up..like the first debate..that’s a winning strategy..go for it. #not the atomic bomb you were looking for.

HumpBot Salvation on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

“Assuming that is true – and? Do you think that will change the trajectory of the race? Do you believe that “obama showing up with a pulse” will suddenly stop the bleeding in the polls that Obama has been doing in the polls for the past 3 weeks?

Your comments are pretty consistent that the polls don’t mean anything, that the movement means nothing, that no matter what the polls are saying Obama is going to win. Perhaps you believe that, but the facts don’t bear out that Obama has it in the bag as much as you claim. Yes, it appears to be close, but it also appears that Romney is gaining if not leading at this point.

Monkeytoe on October 16, 2012 at 10:35 AM”

If Obama wins tonight,it will absolutely affect the race, and he’ll surge in the poll. There is no chance…NO CHANCE…he does as poorly as last time, but if he did, he’s probably lost the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I think the standard even for the drive-bys is higher than that. He had a pulse in Denver. The problem was his performance was so bad and Mitt’s was so good. So even if Obama improves tonight over the first debate, if there’s no noticeable decline in Mitt’s performance, the media won’t be able to do much with it.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Not at all. Obama leads in Ohio, and that’s the story of the election so far. If polls would start to show Romney up 2-4 pts there, then we’ll talk about Romney having a chance.

As far as PPP goes, beware of them setting the stage for an Obama “comeback” and surge in momentum following tonight’s debate.

If Romney underperforms tonight, he’ll crash in the swing states.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

The fat lady wants breakfast and for you to call her later.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Once again you show your lack of perspective. Showing up with a pulse and being declared the winner by a media that no one seems to trust will not magically erase Obama’s dismal performance in the first debate.

Then again, that is your M.O.. get all excited about a particular number or piece of information that is happening right now, and then forget about it once you are on to something new that draws your short attention span.

Oh, are you still trying to fool everyone here that you are voting for Romney? Or have you dropped that charade?

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

If Romney underperforms tonight, he’ll crash in the swing states.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

And when Obama plants another turd on the podium, he’ll be declared the winner?

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Seriously. Does your brain hurt from cognitive dissonance at all?

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Romney wants to eliminate the home interest deduction on second homes, not those with only one home. Those who can afford two homes will be fine.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:26 AM

libfree could care less about facts…I asked for a link to his statement, and of course as usual, there will be no link.

He/she just mouths off, typical liberal, they don’t need facts, just a “belief”…

right2bright on October 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM

If your palms get hairy you sue Debbie Wasserman for making you think sexy thoughts.

Slade73 on October 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM

If Obama wins tonight,it will absolutely affect the race, and he’ll surge in the poll. There is no chance…NO CHANCE…he does as poorly as last time, but if he did, he’s probably lost the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Maybe Obama didn’t do bad at the first debate. And it’s just that his record cannot stand up under scrutiny.

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM

it’s called the “home loan interest deduction”, not the “home interest loan deduction”.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 10:32 AM

..jeeeeee-zus! That is truly embarrassing, almost like “profits and earnings ratio”.

These fools — from the lowliest prole to their ignoramus leader — truly do NOT understand finance at all.

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Well, looks like Romney has it in the bag.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I don’t think so. Always the cynic, there’s still enough time remaining for Obama’s media to save him. They’re really the only ones I’ve feared and loathed the last 4 years. Wouldn’t have any beef with Obama if they held his feet to the fire as they should, theoretically.

Detest unfairness. Obama’s had it too easy. You’ve got to earn our respect in your leadership ability, not demand it or call us ‘racist’ if we don’t.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

while( Now() < Date("11/06/12"){
preferenceCascade++;
}

cep on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

The only polls worthy of respect are the ones that reflect the true affiliations of the country.

That is the ones that are D+25.

CorporatePiggy on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I’ll be working this evening since somebody has to pay for all those food stamps, but I hope to catch the second half of the debate. Unless Obama some how manges to spike Romney’s water with that date rape drug I don’t really see how little Bammy is gonna do himself much good tonight. He’s a rotten debater, and he has 4 years of failure to account for.

eyedoc on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

If Romney underperforms tonight, he’ll crash in the swing states.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

If you’re defining ‘underperforms’ as ‘not destroying every bit of garbage and tripe that erupts past the teeth of the BoyKing, and not being grudgingly defined as the winner by the media’ then I think you’re going to be sorely disappointed.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Conan! What is best in life?

DarthBrooks on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

cep on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I’ve always hated when people put the { on the same line with other code :P

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Conan! What is best in life?

DarthBrooks on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

obligatory

ted c on October 16, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Conan! What is best in life?

DarthBrooks on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

To hear the lamentation of their wimmenses!

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:43 AM

If Obama wins tonight,it will absolutely affect the race, and he’ll surge in the poll. There is no chance…NO CHANCE…he does as poorly as last time, but if he did, he’s probably lost the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

No chance? What makes you so certain? Have you seen Obama at townhalls? He rambles for 10 minutes(sometimes longer) when answering the most basic of questions. Tonight, he’ll be forced to defend his record before 100 townhall attendees without coming off as bitter or defensive(and not laughing like he did at that black lady who asked him a couple years ago if this was her new normal) and he has to do it with brevity and clarity. Think he’s up to that challenge, cuz frankly I think this format allows for far more opportunities to embarrass himself than the Denver debate did.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Herp. OBL dead. GM alive. Derp.

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:44 AM

If Romney underperforms tonight, he’ll crash in the swing states.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Hahaha, so now the debates count?? I remember you spreading the meme around here that he debates don’t count (after the first debate) and the Romney bounce will deflate right away lool :) and only job reports and consumer confidence count :)…. Now, this debate is of oaramoubt importance, I see :) goodness, you are such a tool :)…certified…

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I’ve always hated when people put the { on the same line with other code :P

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Ha!

cep on October 16, 2012 at 10:45 AM

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Whatever happened to the expected attack on Romney over Mormonism? That pretty much fizzled out without ever getting started. I wonder why.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:45 AM

If Obama wins tonight,it will absolutely affect the race, and he’ll surge in the poll. There is no chance…NO CHANCE…he does as poorly as last time, but if he did, he’s probably lost the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Lool :) ‘there was ‘no chance’ that he’d lose the first one either :)…

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 10:46 AM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I don’t know what “Hot Air” will do, but first you do not “pay” for lower tax rates. But I assume you mean make up the revenue. Second, eliminating the home interest loan deduction (if it happens, which I suspect it actually won’t) will not effect many of the poorer home owners since the mortgage interest deduction does not surpass the standard deduction. While I’m not poor, per se, I did buy a fairly inexpensive home and in the 5 years I’ve been there, I only used the mortgage interest deduction once. Every other year I took the standard deduction. For higher income homeowners, it’s probably a bit of a wash for many of them since their taxes will be cut as well, if Romney wants a 20% tax cut across the board, that is. But we’ll see what happens. Not every policy has been nailed down yet. I’m not sure I support cutting taxes right now, but I certainly don’t support raising them on anyone, as Obama wants (especially considering raising them on the rich will lead to a trivial amount of deficient reduction, if the money is not spent in other ways, that is).

Mullaney on October 16, 2012 at 10:46 AM

It turns out Mitt is more relatable than Obama. People understand car lifts, not eating puppies.

Slade73 on October 16, 2012 at 10:46 AM

“PPP is a Republican-leaning polling outfit funded by the Koch-sucking Brothers. Romney is NOT leading Obama by 4 nationally. He’s NOT leading in the swing states. Romney is NOT gaining in Pennsylvania and there will not be a near landslide in the bitterclinger counties. Obama IS leading in Texas, Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas by more than 20 points in each state.

You people are D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N-A-L!

By the way, did you see the new poll from Kim Jong-un POLLytech University? It has Obama up by 63 points nationally with a R +74. Oh, and the Castro-Guevara-Chavez Battleground Poll of the Swing States has Obama wiping Romney’s blood off the floor with a 75 point lead and has a sample of 2/3,798/468 (D/R/I).

You wankers had better catch up! Even true cons are voting for my Dear Leader!”

– dumbygumbyandpokey, Assistant Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Maybe Obama didn’t do bad at the first debate. And it’s just that his record cannot stand up under scrutiny.

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM

That’s just it, he really didn’t do poorly. The Left believes he did because he didn’t personally attack Romney, but as far as his plans go Obama went after them. Romney was just effective in answering those charges and turning them back on Obama.

changer1701 on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

OT Question: will loading up on my water intake today (in prep for tonight’s drinking game)
make tomorrow better ??
With O answering to ‘his peeps’ tonight, methinks we’ll hear so many tired, old, *clink* moments, I’m trying to do things smart.
;-)

pambi on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Try not to be so transparently dishonest in your attempt to agitate.

There were 2 different scenarios that Romney proposed as far as mortgage interest deduction. One proposal was to disallow the deduction on a second home in high earners ( I can’t remember if that was 1 million). The second was unveiled before the first debate:he proposed a deduction limit of $17000. In that bucket you can put anything, including your mortgage interest. Let’s say you have a $10000 interest payment on your mortgage, at 4% interest, it represents a loan amount of $250000. That is much more than what middle class pay for a house.

bayview on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Whatever happened to the expected attack on Romney over Mormonism? That pretty much fizzled out without ever getting started. I wonder why.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I don’t think people care about it ..so it’s a non-issue really…

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I declare.Just when I think you are a total loon you make sense.

You are 100 percent right . The MSM want Obama to win. They will declare him the victor no matter what.

The only way Obama can lose this debate is if he is shown to be a pedophile and someone has pictures.

Other than that he will be declared the winner.

gerrym51 on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

And when Obama plants another turd on the podium, he’ll be declared the winner?

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

..I think I’ve found a possible explanation for The Crapsack™’s distracted performance in POTUS Smackdown I.

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Obama will have an okay/good night, and the MSM will consider it a great comeback, the comeback story of the year…the second coming, the resurrection, the Phoenix rising from the ashes…

But the people won’t buy it…all Mitt has to do is not step into any traps, and there will be “traps” set.

He will talk to the people this time, and not to Obama, he will be steady, stable, Presidential, and that is all he needs to do.

Of course he will have the facts and knowledge, along with the amazing ability to pull those out to defend…but he won’t have to use much.

Obama will be over coached, and he will over reach…and as the saying goes, Mitt won’t interrupt a man making a fool of himself…

right2bright on October 16, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I don’t think people care about it ..so it’s a non-issue really…

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

That’s a good thing, but I still expected a full court press from the media on the issue. After all, the media believes its own stereotypes about Southern Christians.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:50 AM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

I think the tax deduction for second homes is bye-bye. i think for primary residences the deduction will be capped for high income earners.

that is all

gerrym51 on October 16, 2012 at 10:51 AM

And those reality based kids at Kos have got it all figured out.

All that money is beginning to work. First SCOTUS (9+ / 0-)

gave Bush 2000 and now they have given Romney 2012.

Flora Duh on October 16, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Alrighty then war planner :)

cmsinaz on October 16, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Well, looks like Romney has it in the bag. Fine. As I’ve said, and no one is really able to answer me without hurling insults (like, “face it you’re a lousy 12% of the population” ala Lanceman). What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

We, who are conservatives, will do exactly what we would have done if Obama were to win and Obamacare remains in effect. We’ll take it on the chin, and pony up our share of the tax increase.

The difference of course, is that Romney has a proven track record of fixing things that are broken, like the economy, whereas Obama has a now proven record of taking things that are broken, and breaking them even worse.

You are a college professor, which means as much as I might disagree with your politics, I respect the hard work that it took for you to achieve your PhD. I know despite your political ideology that you are an intelligent individual.

Arthur Laffer, creator of the Laffer Curve proved mathematically back in the 1980′s that the maximum effective rate of taxation was 17%. When the government exceeds 17% revenues fall, when they set a rate below 17% revenues fall.

If the United States is to return to solvency (which means the individual prosperity of it’s citizens) then the Federal Government needs to maximize the revenues taken in through taxation. Contrary to the seemingly obvious choice raising the rate of taxation does not achieve that result.

Nor does increasing the regulatory burden placed upon those individuals or businesses that create the very revenue that the government needs to tax.

Once again, contrary to the Marxist or Socialist ideology that you ascribe to, economics is not a zero sum equation. This fallacious basic assumption is one of the key reasons that every single time Marxism has been attempted it has resulted in the economic collapse of the nation/society that has attempted it.

SWalker on October 16, 2012 at 10:52 AM

dumbyandgumby,

I think that you need to get a job as a teller in a bank’s drive-thru. You can become an expert using the delivery chutes. Just imagine how in demand your expertise will be rewarded when they start looking for someone to replace Winston Smith at MiniTru. You’ll already know how to work Memory Hole.

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Is there any indication what the D+ in the sample is?

Right Mover on October 16, 2012 at 10:53 AM

After all, the media believes its own stereotypes about Southern Christians.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Interestingly, they refuse to believe reality about radical Islam (which is most of it) or Black Liberation Theology.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:53 AM

One more thing.

something no one is talking about.

If Mitt is elected president I think he will try to get congress to pass a law enabling states to more easily get out of their pension promises.

this will not be direct federal intervention. It will just give a legal way for a state to pass pension reform if they so choose.

gerrym51 on October 16, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I have to wonder how much of Romney’s rise in the polls was as inevitable as Reagan’s against Carter. By that I mean people want to hold back their support for the challenger against a bad President on

1)The off chance the challenger is a bad guy

2) They can’t admit to themselves they got it wrong electing the current President.

Conan on October 16, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Whatever happened to the expected attack on Romney over Mormonism? That pretty much fizzled out without ever getting started. I wonder why.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Because, for whatever theological oddities they might have, the fact is it’s a bad idea to portray as deleterious to society millions of people who, from the time they are children, believe in their heart of hearts there are few honors greater than being chosen to put out the American flags on Election Day.

And believe me, Election Day in Utah… man I’ve never seen so many flags. Everywhere. Lining every street. These people love America so much it must hurt. Making fun of that in the middle of an election… really doesn’t fly.

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 10:54 AM

cep on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM
lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

..hermanos! (Hermanas?)

Although I agree with lorien about the formatting style; Allman/BDS is preferable.

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Made my donation today. Can’t stop grinning. I actually wrote Mitt in because he was off the ballot in Texas by the time we had our primary in 2008. You could say I was ahead of my time.

ellesar04 on October 16, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Viewership will be down tonight: Yankees vs Detroit at 8 pm

The first debate, like so many things in life, is half the whole.

So spoke Teddy White in the acclaimed book, Making of the President, 1960.

matthew8787 on October 16, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Good for you Ed!!!!

I am looking to see what kind of snacks to get in for tonight….hmmmmm

Romney has another chance to explain his policies from his mouth instead of through the Oboobomachine dissemination machine.

CoffeeLover on October 16, 2012 at 10:56 AM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

As someone already noted, the deduction would be eliminated for vacation homes and capped on homes over a certain amount. I think that it was $750,000 or $1,000,000.

Tax rates will be cut by 20% for everyone.

Didn’t Obama say that everyone “should have skin in the game”?

Don’t you believe that everyone should have skin in the game, i.e., pay taxes?

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 10:57 AM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I say that you’re not approaching this correctly.

Pull out a Form 1040, and let’s look it over.

For starters, eliminate the deduction for mortgage interest (and real estate taxes) on a second home. You might consider a three-to-five-year transition rule, but probably not.

Next, get rid of the deduction for Miscellaneous Itemized deductions subject to the 2% of AGI floor. There’s likely not much revenue there, but do it to simplify compliance.

Next, let’s stick it to high-income-tax blue staters and eliminate the deduction for state and local income taxes. What’s they policy for promoting that deduction? I say that if you don’t like it’s elimination, tough. Start griping to your home state and locality about high income taxes.

Next, I wonder how much tax revenue is lost to the deduction for unreimbursed medical expenses and health insurance premiums exceeding 7.5% of AGI. If you’re in a position to claim this deduction, you’re likely in difficult health and financial circumstances. For now, I’d leave this alone. By the way, the heartless Obama administration’s Obamacare increases this threshold from 7.5% of AGI to 10% of AGI. A**holes.

Next, now we get to the two deductions that arguably promote laudable policy goals: the deductions for a charitable contributions and mortgage interest on a principal residence. I’d be inclined to leave the deduction for charitable contributions as is. With regard to the mortgage interest deduction, I’d first scrap the deduction for interest on home-equity loans. The deduction should promote the purchase of a principal residence–not using home equity for other purposes. Then, you find a way to limit the deduction available for mortgage interest on acquisition debt on a principal residence–by AGI or by the level of loan.

From there, we may need to look for other aspects of the tax law. For example, ending the exclusion for tax-exempt interest; ending the exemption for the cost of employer-provided health insurance (an anachronism that disguises what this cost really is and helps explain why cash wages have been so flat for years); the annual increase in cash value of permanent life insurance policies.

I’m sure that we can work something out.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Obama leads in Ohio, and that’s the story of the election so far. If polls would start to show Romney up 2-4 pts there, then we’ll talk about Romney having a chance.

As far as PPP goes, beware of them setting the stage for an Obama “comeback” and surge in momentum following tonight’s debate.

If Romney underperforms tonight, he’ll crash in the swing states.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Utter, utter nonsense.

I’ve looked at the early OH polling by county.

I know the terrain.

It’s bad news for Barry.

He’s pulling a lot early ballots from older voters who don’t want to wait in line, from his two main counties, and flat-lining or cratering everywhere else.

If the trajectory remains, the dropoff in some areas, from 2008, guarantees a lose.

Why?

Because he only won the state by 250K votes.

When you have Dem stronghold areas dropping early voting by 1/3 to 2/3 from ’08, the lead is already under 150K.

Combine that with purge of Acorn registrations and population drop in big Dem counties, and his lead is 100K.

Combine that with Romney’s state ad surge, enthusiasm climb, massive crowds, and equal or rise in early ballot requests to ’08…

…and now you know why even the Morning Joe started off the show today saying Ohio is at best a split.

budfox on October 16, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Viewership will be down tonight: Yankees vs Detroit at 8 pm

Yankee bats this post-season = Obama’s record the last 4 years.

Right Mover on October 16, 2012 at 10:58 AM

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I’ll cross that fantasy brdige when it occurs, Lib.

But I like your defeated tone.

Enjoy that ghey mirage win on election night, though. You’ll most likely get two states.

budfox on October 16, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Well, looks like Romney has it in the bag. Fine. As I’ve said, and no one is really able to answer me without hurling insults (like, “face it you’re a lousy 12% of the population” ala Lanceman). What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I would happily forgo my interest deduction IF THEY CUT SPENDING (across the board, but especially entitlements), eliminate DEATH TAXES and CAPITAL GAINS, lower MIDDLE CLASS/WEALTHY INCOME TAX RATES, and require EVERYONE who earns income to pay some income taxes.

idalily on October 16, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

pundits can declare him the winner until they get blue in their faces, they do that anyways, but nobody cares anymore about what the sycophantic pundit class has to say, they have no credibility, as the CNN poll showed after the last VP debate, people believe their own eyes not what the pundits tell them to believe…problem with obama is that the emperor appeared without clothes at the last prez debate, he was exposed for the fraud he is, and that belittled him in the eyes of most people, especially the undecided ones…that debate was the turning point for them (turning away from him, that is), there is no going back…there is no way in heck that he can overcome that trust deficit with this one debate tonight…no matter how well he does…

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Only the stinkin’ Yankees could make me root for Detroit

Slade73 on October 16, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Viewership will be down tonight: Yankees vs Detroit at 8 pm

Games are only drawing 6-7 million voters.

You’re still looking at 55-62 Mil viewers.

budfox on October 16, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I would happily forgo my interest deduction IF THEY CUT SPENDING (across the board, but especially entitlements), eliminate DEATH TAXES and CAPITAL GAINS, lower MIDDLE CLASS/WEALTHY INCOME TAX RATES, and require EVERYONE who earns income to pay some income taxes.

Isn’t that the truth!!!

CoffeeLover on October 16, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Yankee bats this post-season = Obama’s record the last 4 years.

Right Mover on October 16, 2012 at 10:58 AM

And those bad bats are up against Verlander tonight. Yankees down 3-0 in the series after tonight?

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I’m certainly no tax expert, but one thing I have never understood is why we need deductions in the first place. I view this as a tacit admission by the government that taxes are too high in the first place. Wouldn’t a single low tax rate be preferable?

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Opening question for the debate – mr Obama will you ask for resignation or fire Clinton?

Game over

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I’m thinking it could be somewhere around 10,10,10 . Sure would take me less money to file.

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Folks, stop obsessing over the stupid polls whether it is favoring us or against us. Nothing has changed in term of the reality on the ground and the metrics of winning and losing the elections.

First, the reality on the ground is very much against Obama. Very slow GDP growth, very high unemployment, very high gas prices and food, insane debt and deficit, disastrous foreign policy, and of course Obama utterly failed record on all important issues…

Second, the two most important metrics to determine the winner and loser of the elections are very much against Obama. These metrics are the enthusiasm of the Obama base from 2008 and the numbers of Obama White Voters from 2008 who will be voting for Romney in 2012. If only 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with only 10% of Obama White Voters from 2008 switching for Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose the elections. I am certain that at least 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 are going to stay home in 2012 and at least 10% of Obama White Voters from 2008 are going to switch for Romney in 2012 and hence Obama is certain to lose the elections.

mnjg on October 16, 2012 at 11:04 AM

problem with obama is that the emperor appeared without clothes at the last prez debate, he was exposed for the fraud he is, and that belittled him in the eyes of most people, especially the undecided ones

The first debate was Obama’s Scott Farkas moment (Christmas Story).

Right Mover on October 16, 2012 at 11:05 AM

“People say the reason Obama wouldn’t call Clinton is because he doesn’t like him. The truth is, Obama doesn’t call anyone, and he’s not close to almost anyone. IT’S STUNNING THAT HE’S IN POLITICS, BECAUSE HE REALLY DOESN’T LIKE PEOPLE. My analogy is that it’s like becoming Bill Gates without liking computers.”

- Neera Tanden, a former aide to both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama

Tanden “served as senior advisor for health reform at the Department of Health and Human Services, advising Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and working on President Barack Obama’s health reform team in the White House to pass the bill,” according to her bio at the Center for American Progress.

Currently, Tanden is the CEO and President of the Center for American Progress, a Progressive organisation.

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 11:06 AM

would happily forgo my interest deduction IF THEY CUT SPENDING (across the board, but especially entitlements), eliminate DEATH TAXES and CAPITAL GAINS, lower MIDDLE CLASS/WEALTHY INCOME TAX RATES, and require EVERYONE who earns income to pay some income taxes.

idalily on October 16, 2012 at 11:00 AM

This!

D-fusit on October 16, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Conan, “To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.”

crash72 on October 16, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I really hope Mitt delivers the knockout blow tonight.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Crowley is the only problem. She’s a big fan of little Bammie and she will ignore the debate commission rules to tilt in Bammie’s favor.

slickwillie2001 on October 16, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Much of the media already have the STRONG OBAMA COMEBACK VICTORY stories written for tonight.

All Obama has to do is wag his finger a little and show a little more effort.

That’s the reality. Anyone that would actually say Biden won the VP debate is unmasked. Again.

Moesart on October 16, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Those Sunday results probably are an outlier, but they’re eye-popping nonetheless. On a day when conservatives tend not to conduct a lot of political business, the responders gave Romney a twelve-point lead over Obama.

If the polling was conducted after the Sunday talking heads gave their spin performances about Benghazi and the cover-up, maybe some scales fell from some eyes.

Flora Duh on October 16, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Something else to consider playing around with is taxing “carried interest” income at long-term capital gains rates. Mitt made a ton of money off that, and I’m not entirely sure that I see the policy underlying that one. It seems like trade-or-business income. But Obama had veto-proof majorities for two years when he could have done something about this. Evidently, his hedge-fund supporters got to him.

BuckeyeSam on October 16, 2012 at 11:14 AM

http://vimeo.com/17021020

MontanaMmmm on October 16, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Much of the media already have the STRONG OBAMA COMEBACK VICTORY stories written for tonight.

Moesart on October 16, 2012 at 11:10 AM

You are absolutely correct.

They narrative has been to make Mittens into the incumbent/leader and recast O as the underdog.

And everyone loves a comback story – well, except Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles fans…

Bruno Strozek on October 16, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Just as with the debate tonight the Left hasn’t figured out Obama doesn’t have anything to say about the issues of our day. Obama’s whole platform is; Romney’s a bad guy, the economy is “slightly” better, and I want to raise taxes………..that all he’s got.

Tater Salad on October 16, 2012 at 11:18 AM

mnjg on October 16, 2012 at 11:04 AM

That’s almost exactly what you’re seeing in Ohio.

budfox on October 16, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Romney should continue in the vein of Ryan’s charge during the VP debate that “we don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.

Everyone understands that. And getting much further into the weeds is unnecessary for a “town hall” debate.

The folks looking for a handout are a minority of voters; those paying for handouts are not.

Droopy on October 16, 2012 at 11:23 AM

If Obama wins tonight,it will absolutely affect the race, and he’ll surge in the poll. There is no chance…NO CHANCE…he does as poorly as last time, but if he did, he’s probably lost the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:39 AM

And this is based on what exactly? Most other presidential elections, the 2nd and 3rd debates did not move the needle much – or at least not nearly as much as the 1st debate.

Further, define “win”. Are you saying that if Obama merely ekes out a victory, that will translate into a “surge”? Or, are you suggesting that if Obama trounces Romney it will result in a surge?

I think claiming that a narrow win in the debate will result in a “surge” is not credible. I also think it is unlikely that Obama will rout Romney. Obama may do enough to be declared victor, but I hardly expect a trouncing (going either way). So, at most the debate may staunch the flow of voters away from Obama – but the idea that Obama is going to experience a surge? Hogwash.

Monkeytoe on October 16, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Much of the media already have the STRONG OBAMA COMEBACK VICTORY stories written for tonight.

Moesart on October 16, 2012 at 11:10 AM

But the post-debate narrative regarding the VP debate was pre-written, too; and nobody outside the Dem base bought it.

Droopy on October 16, 2012 at 11:25 AM

This week: Blue states – Obama 52, Romney 45
2 weeks ago: Blue States – Obama 56, Romney 37

I got polled by PPP a few days ago. That’s me right up there in the 45, smiling for the camera. What a ham!

A 12 (!) point swing in just two weeks in blue states. Who really thinks Romney can’t pull this off?

IrishEi on October 16, 2012 at 11:27 AM

This week: Blue states – Obama 52, Romney 45
2 weeks ago: Blue States – Obama 56, Romney 37

I got polled by PPP a few days ago. That’s me right up there in the 45, smiling for the camera. What a ham!

A 12 (!) point swing in just two weeks in blue states. Who really thinks Romney can’t pull this off?

IrishEi on October 16, 2012 at 11:27 AM

In all fairness, 52-45 for Obama is probably where the blue states would have ended up even without a Romney surge. Outside of “wave” elections like 2008, that’s about where the candidates end up in their respective firewall states.

Monkeytoe on October 16, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Moesart on October 16, 2012 at 11:10 AM

But the post-debate narrative regarding the VP debate was pre-written, too; and nobody outside the Dem base bought it.

Droopy on October 16, 2012 at 11:25 AM

That won’t stop the utterly corrupt Goebbels approved Fifth Column Treasonous Media from pushing the narrative anyway.

SWalker on October 16, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Lib – I would welcome the elimination of mortgage interest and local/state taxes as well. If we are to get lower rates, and a flatter tax code, we need to eliminate many of these provisions that work to lower the effective rate now and increase inefficiency in the market.

I itemize and utilize both of these provisions. I have never understood the logic behind them. Why should someone subsidize me to buy a bigger home? If I want to buy it I should buy it. Likewise on taxes why should my relatively frugal state have its citizens reimburse the citizens of high tax bankrupt ones?

I imagine that the mortgage deduction will need to be phased in just so we don’t kill the housing market as it struggles with coming out of the govt induced wipeout, but I would think somethign could be done – and I would support it.

Zomcon JEM on October 16, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Of course the other side of this poll is after the debate, Kos can put out a poll showing that Obama is surging once again.

yetanotherjohn on October 16, 2012 at 11:35 AM

More ammo for Romney to use tonight, this one is on Yahoo’s front page even:

Another Obama green project goes bankrupt

tkyang99 on October 16, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Of course the other side of this poll is after the debate, Kos can put out a poll showing that Obama is surging once again.

yetanotherjohn on October 16, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Exactly what I expect to happen, and not only with PPP, but with other Obama leaning media polls as well, even if Romney wins big again.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 11:44 AM

(like, “face it you’re a lousy 12% of the population” ala Lanceman).

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Soul’s still wounded, huh, liveasaslaveanddie?

Y’oughtta put somethin’ on that.

Drama queen.

Solaratov on October 16, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Ladies, Gentlemen and liberals there isn’t any bleeding or poll swings. The real numbers are starting to come out as the Election nears and they can’t hide the reality that very few people like the Obumbler and his time is over!

Tbone McGraw on October 16, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Sorry, I still don’t trust PPP’s crap.

rubberneck on October 16, 2012 at 12:00 PM

That’s not to say the election is over, but it does mean that it’s no longer Mitt Romney that needs a game changer. It’s Barack Obama.

It’s a virtual certainty the media will claim he gets that tonight.

changer1701 on October 16, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Hard for the media to spin too much when flash polls are released within an hour after the debate is over…They’ll try but like the VP debate..when the CNN poll came out showing Ryan won it takes the wind out of their sails.

jaygatz33 on October 16, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Here’s a preview of what’s in store for the business community and for the whole country if Barkey wins a second term…

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 12:04 PM

So I went to Kos’ site, and scrolled down and in the first comments.

> The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

Thanks ed.

rubberneck on October 16, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

The left wants him to show some fight against Romney, so he’ll at least need to throw some tomatoes.

TarheelBen on October 16, 2012 at 12:06 PM

That’s almost exactly what you’re seeing in Ohio.

budfox on October 16, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Thanks for the feeback… Great to hear that…

mnjg on October 16, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Yankees down 3-0 in the series after tonight?

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Definitely.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 12:14 PM

That’s not to say the election is over,

Jeez, enough with these “let’s not put a jinx on it” qualifiers. The only thing better than beating Obama on election day, is to rub his supporter’s faces in his imminent defeat during the weeks leading up to the election.

ardenenoch on October 16, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Two new We Ask America polls…

Colorado
Romney 48
Obama 47

Sample is R+1

Iowa
Obama 49
Romney 46

Sample is D+3

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 12:22 PM

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