Romney hits 50%, leads by 4 in PPP/Daily Kos national poll

posted at 10:01 am on October 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Last week, I approvingly linked the Daily Kos’ report on the PPP poll it commissioned when it showed Mitt Romney leading by two point, 49/47.  Markos Moulitsas responded with some snark on Twitter, wondering if I’d link future polling from his site, and I said I probably would.  Since I am a man of my word, here is the latest Daily Kos/PPP weekly polling result — which turned out to be even more painful than the first for Markos:

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)

At a time when other polls are moving back in the president’s direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:

Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

That Sunday sample, about a quarter of the total, was entirely responsible for Romney’s favorable numbers. That’s why the good pollsters collect data over multiple days, to smooth out such irregularities. And at 400 respondents (or so), Sunday had a single-day MoE of 4.9 percent. Lots of polls float around with worse. On the other hand, Saturday’s sample MoE was 3.92 percent, while Friday’s was 3.97 percent. And with no external news even suggesting the big Sunday collapse, it certainly smells like an outlier.

You know an election is going poorly when an outfit commissions a poll, and then tries to argue that part of the results from its own poll is an outlier.  Those Sunday results probably are an outlier, but they’re eye-popping nonetheless.  On a day when conservatives tend not to conduct a lot of political business, the responders gave Romney a twelve-point lead over Obama.  As Markos notes, that sample has a margin of error of less than five points, too, with roughly 400 responses.

The news gets worse for Obama in the subsamples:

Swing state Obama 47, Romney 50
Blue state Obama 52, Romney 45
Red State Obama 40, Romney 56

Two weeks ago, it was Obama leading Romney 50-46 in the Swing states. But he was also winning Blue states by 56-37, and losing Red states by just 41-52. Actually, the change in Red states is smaller (-5) compared to Blue states (-12) and Swing states (-7).

This lends some credence to the Mitt-mentum theory of a preference cascade already beginning.  That’s not to say the election is over, but it does mean that it’s no longer Mitt Romney that needs a game changer.  It’s Barack Obama.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

NTX, 2008 flashback … nearly EVERY black person I’d see out and about, wore some form of Obama/Hopey-changey t-shirt. Even some with that cringeworthy poster (red, blue,ecru … you know the one).
NOT ONE SINGLE OBAMA t-shirt seen ’round these parts, this year.
Stunningly absent.
GO R&R !!!

pambi on October 16, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I have to say I agree with Gumby on this point. Expect to hear comments like: He’s found his voice. This is the Obama of old. He’s seemed to have awoken the fire in his belly. The Passion, the empathy, the connection to voters. Yada Yada Yada.

I don’t expect much more from tonight. The narative has already been written.

I hope I am wrong.

GadsdenRattlers on October 16, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Remember that all Obama has to do tonight is show up with a pulse and he will be the winner according to the pundits/headlines/public/polls.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

So was Biden. How’d that work out for you?

And Biden is a FAR better debater than Obama.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 12:43 PM

We Ask America, LOL!

And Ras not showing much movement, if any.

And no national movement on Ras, either.

Gonna be funny when no bounce is seen anywhere, and maybe things actually turn more towards Obama due to the jobs numbers.

So, how about it Dell?

Romney wins and I leave. Obama wins and you leave?

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Two new We Ask America polls…

Colorado
Romney 48
Obama 47

Sample is R+1

Iowa
Obama 49
Romney 46

Sample is D+3

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Well played.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 12:52 PM

any notice the irony, Obama support at around 47%

RonK on October 16, 2012 at 12:52 PM

For our little claymation friend. Expectations. Kinda reminds me of Nestor. The clay one that is.

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 12:52 PM

In their corner:

The media, higher education, Hollywood, the unions, the entertainment industry, K-12 education, urban areas and lots of electoral votes.

In our corner:

Millions of beleaguered patriots…and a man with a slingshot and deadly accurate aim.

Be our David, Mitt Romney.

Please, God.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 16, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Anyone heard from libfreeordie recently?
A week ago he was posting that Romney’s bounce was already gone

breffnian on October 16, 2012 at 12:58 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Those are fantastic numbers for Romney in those 2 states. Not sure how you think that helps your argument. Iowa has been pretty solid D for awhile. Except for 04, Iowa has been voting “D” for a couple of decades.

Colorado has been trending democrat, but is not quite there yet and it is good to see Romney leading there.

Overall, fits into the trajectory of the race of Romney starting to take the lead.

Monkeytoe on October 16, 2012 at 12:59 PM

I clicked a link that took me to the Kos site… they are in full blown panic over that Kos poll! Very funny.

It is PPP and I dont’ believe it either, but wow it is funny to see how panicked they are!

If ever there was a need for Prayer it is now. Just pray that people’s eyes and ears will be open to the truth. And how cool that so many are praying for the same thing at the same time! God will notice.

We only need the truth to be widely known to win… and that is a very good position to be in.

petunia on October 16, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Anyone heard from libfreeordie recently?
A week ago he was posting that Romney’s bounce was already gone

breffnian on October 16, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Upthread, he said he thinks Romney has it in the bag. ???

Grace_is_sufficient on October 16, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Anyone heard from libfreeordie recently?
A week ago he was posting that Romney’s bounce was already gone

breffnian on October 16, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Check the first page of this very thread just after 10:15 AM.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Anyone heard from libfreeordie recently?
A week ago he was posting that Romney’s bounce was already gone

breffnian on October 16, 2012 at 12:58 PM

From this a.m.

Well, looks like Romney has it in the bag. Fine. As I’ve said, and no one is really able to answer me without hurling insults (like, “face it you’re a lousy 12% of the population” ala Lanceman). What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 1:03 PM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

No idea. HotAir never underwrote my mortgages.

My home(s)are (long since)paid off. One is rented. Responsibility. It’s what’s for dinner. I never had any need for the tax deduction either. I do not and never had, enough debt.

It’s called living within your means. Once upon a time, it was actually taught in schools where winners won and losers tried harder next time.

98ZJUSMC on October 16, 2012 at 1:03 PM

New Gallup Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 46%

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 1:03 PM

GALLUP CONFIRMS: ROMNEY 50/46 LIKELY VOTERS.

Doom.

mitchellvii on October 16, 2012 at 1:04 PM

The Democrats are all moving back to ledge now.

Punchenko on October 16, 2012 at 1:05 PM

New Gallup Poll:

Romney: 50%
Obama: 46%

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Atomic.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 1:07 PM

The clay one,the perfesser, and the verbose one are all staying away today.

kingsjester on October 16, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Hey pukey gumbo, have you seen this?

Romney hits 50 in Gallup tracking, now leads Obama by four.

steebo77 on October 16, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Betcha Scrumpy is doing the happy dance.

But we still need to turn out and VOTE MITT

SparkPlug on October 16, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Well played.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 12:52 PM

It writes itself.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 1:13 PM

“I feel fabulous,” Mr. Obama answered with a smile, according to a pool report. “Look at this beautiful day.”…

“Is Hillary to blame for Benghazi?” came the final inquiry yelled at Mr. Obama.

Mr. Obama did not respond and walked way.

Biggest oaf in the USA today!!!

Aquarius, er The Age of Nonresponsibility is here!!!

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Any person with common sense knows this. Only fools in the business of services/selling would go there.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Those are fantastic numbers for Romney in those 2 states. Not sure how you think that helps your argument.

Monkeytoe on October 16, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Same reason a shark must keep swimming. If a troll stops posting, it will die.

CO will be +2 to +5. Gallup has it at +5.
IA Sec of State has voter ID at R+.6

So both look good for Romney, especially 3 weeks out.

I think panicking is setting in Clayboy realizes a years worth of trolling could very well go down the toilet. Think of the 100s of hours he’s wasted.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 1:27 PM

CO will be +2R to +5R. Gallup has it at +5R, that is.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 1:27 PM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Nice talking point… but it is a total lie.

And this is why that first debate mattered so much. When you make up something completely, then people see it is not at all true–they tend to discount everything else you say as well!!!

The left should not have tried to make up a Romney who didn’t exist and put words in his mouth.

But they had nothing else.

Other very obvious lies the public is becoming aware of is the lie that Romney has said he is against contraception and will single handedly over turn Roe v. Wade. It is complete idiocy to believe any of that. Yet Democrats keep saying it. People can figure that out you know. So why do you think you can get away with the lies forever?

Like Obama lying for two weeks over Lybia? Why? Did he really beleive the truth could be hidden forever? Makes one wonder what the media has covered up so far. He must have had some basis to believe the truth would never come out.

I hope the investigations continue after the election… we really need to know the truth.

petunia on October 16, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Biggest Loaf in the USA today!!!

Aquarius, er The Age of Nonresponsibility is here!!!

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Small fix.

HumpBot Salvation on October 16, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Fox just said that tonight’s debate rules are going to be changed.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 1:30 PM

O has NEVER been held responsible.

Lets hope some of the Indies do tonight?

BTW anyone see how many of these undecideds at Hoffa University (is he buried there?) voted for Obama in 2008?

Mmmmmmm.

PappyD61 on October 16, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Why isn’t this PPD poll showing up in the RCP list?

anotherJoe on October 16, 2012 at 1:57 PM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie

What lie will you libs pull out of your azz next when that doesn’t happen? It will be interesting.

xblade on October 16, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Greetings from the Granite State!

CONCORD – A new, independent poll has President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney tied in New Hampshire, each with 47 percent support, as the two candidates prepare for their second of three debates Tuesday night. The Oct. 12-15 poll of 500 likely voters from Suffolk University was carried out after Romney’s strong performance in the first debate. Pollster David Paleologos said a troubling sign for the President is his job approval rating remains at 47 percent three weeks before the Nov. 6 election.

2 weeks ago, the UNH “poll” had O’bamna winning NH by 15

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 2:46 PM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I have a miniscule mortgage, and if the tax rate comes down at all then it will be a wash against losing the mortgage deduction.

krome on October 16, 2012 at 3:29 PM

That picture makes it look like Romney has a ginormous head and four ears.

Ash on October 16, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Maybe Biden did not win that debate after all.

Terrye on October 16, 2012 at 4:10 PM

I would happily forgo my interest deduction IF THEY CUT SPENDING (across the board, but especially entitlements), eliminate DEATH TAXES and CAPITAL GAINS, lower MIDDLE CLASS/WEALTHY INCOME TAX RATES, and require EVERYONE who earns income to pay some income taxes.

idalily on October 16, 2012 at 11:00 AM

This x 1000!

Simplify the tax code, which is now so byzantine that it can be used to make a criminal out of anyone.

Lower taxes across the board.

Do all that, and the mortgage deduction won’t even matter.

I get so tired of people who are all “sure, fine, cut the loopholes for the rich” until it’s their loophole that’s on the chopping block, and then they scream bloody murder.

I came to a realization recently that I don’t like to get anything “free”, not even people’s time and help, unless they are family. It makes me uncomfortable. Maybe I’m just odd that way.

Mary in LA on October 16, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Oh, that racist Floridian Lanceman!

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Under Reagan there was the same kind of bleating from the sheeple when they decided to do away with the deduction for consumer loan interest (back then you used to be able to deduct car loan interest, student loan interest, purchase your furniture on time interest – anything Household Finance/HFC loaned money for).

People got over it. If the home mortgage deduction goes, we’ll get past that, too.

Truth be told, the first mortgage interest deduction that will go is the 2nd home deduction which will mainly affect more wealthy people.

Like someone upthread, I have a home here and another I haven’t sold yet but both are paid off long ago. I inherited my Dad’s agita at owing anyone for anything. It literally keeps me up nights and that’s not worth it for me.

Greyledge Gal on October 16, 2012 at 5:10 PM

test

Greyledge Gal on October 16, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Gumbo hhahahhaha

The clown.

CW on October 16, 2012 at 5:50 PM

What will Hot Air do when Mitt Romney eliminates the home interest loan deduction to pay for lower tax rates for high income earners. It will be interesting.

libfreeordie on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

If that’s what it takes to balance the budget, I’ll suck it up. Canada doesn’t have a mortgage interest deduction.

Think of a simplified tax code. Imagine the reduction in IRS emplyees and the cost savings there.

Has onetrickpony commented yet?

talkingpoints on October 16, 2012 at 6:42 PM

This race looks more and more like 1980, featuring an incumbent Democrat President who has presided over but failed to budge a weak economy, and whose several programs had failed to even make a dent in the economic outlook. The latest jobless numbers were not an improvement — they reflected people giving up on looking, or taking part-time work.

At the first debate this year, Romney established himself amongst undecided voters and even some Democrats as a viable candidate — he became for undecided voters and some Democrats a man with Presidential stature. That was exactly what happened in 1980.

The result has been that many of those who were (and are) very dissatisfied with Obama for any one of dozens of reasons, are now turning to Romney. Before that first debate, Romney had just been this guy who, as many had endlessly heard from Democrats, was uncaring, didn’t pay his taxes for 10 years, liked to fire people, was rich and out of touch, and who outsourced jobs overseas.

He was simply being painted as a caricature of a plutocrat. That is the real story the Democrats and their acolytes in the press are peddling this year — that we live in a plutocracy, and that Romney is attempting to be a sort of financially based princeps.

But actually seeing and hearing him during the debate completely changed all of that. That strategy was similar to what Jimmy Carter had tried to do to Reagan in 1980 — paint him as a simple, out-of-touch and wealthy right-winger who did not care about the average person.

But once Reagan showed up for that debate, and voters heard him respond to questions, and frame a forceful argument, Carter was toast.

The really big difference this year is that there are three debates. In 1980 there was only one debate between Reagan and Carter — on October 28th. John Anderson, who was running as an independent that year was polling around 20% at one point during the summer, but the closer the election got, the more his support slipped away.

If Romney simply holds his own over the next two debates, Obama is absolutely done for.

There were plans back in 1980 for three debates, but Carter refused to participate if Anderson was included. There was even a debate in September between Reagan and Anderson, but Carter refused to participate. A second debate plan fell through in early October, and Reagan finally relented and agreed to a one-on-one with Carter, which was held on the 28th of October.

In the last Gallup poll taken entirely BEFORE that debate in late 1980, Carter was rated as up by 3 points. In the last Gallup poll, which was taken entirely AFTER that debate, suddenly Reagan was up by 3% — representing a six point swing over a matter of several days. It was within days of the election.

But even Gallup ( and ALL public polls that year) entirely missed the final result.

Both of the candidates, of course, had their own polls, each of which was much closer to the actual spread between the candidates, but they both missed the percentages — not one single poll projected Reagan topping 50%. He got 51%, and Carter got 41%.

Carter’s last second poll (CSR) did have him down 10, and down by 5 a few days earlier. Reagan’s (Wirthlin’s DMI) last second poll had it as an 11 point spread.

None of the public polls that year came close to the result.

Ronald Reagan won the election in 1980 by 10 points over Jimmy Carter, with John Anderson getting only 7%. Not on single public poll properly predicted the spread.

Those that looked at it picked up on the post-debate trend away from Carter, but none of them got the spread. The closest public poll was the ABC/Harris poll, which was taken over several days, and had it a 5-point race — half of the actual difference.

Trochilus on October 16, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3