Romney gaining in PA?

posted at 9:21 am on October 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s been a long time since Pennsylvania was within reach of a Republican presidential candidate, but Quinnipiac becomes the latest pollster to put Mitt Romney nearly within the margin of error in the Keystone State.  In a single month, Romney gained eight points on Barack Obama in a state that Democrats have to keep in their column to have any chance of holding the White House, and Obama now only leads by four:

Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 – 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 – 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

National Journal notes the big shift in Romney’s favor as well in another poll:

The survey also squares with another recent Pennsylvania survey that reported Romney gains. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters, conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found Obama leading Romney by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That was down from an 7-point advantage for the president from the same survey taken in late September.

RCP now has the Obama lead in its Pennsylvania average down to 5%, with three of the polls — Quinnipiac, Morning Call. and Susquehanna — under that range. The sample in the Q-poll is a D+8, 39/31/26; the exit polls from 2008 were D+7 at 44/37/18, and but 2010 was much closer, with a D+3 at 40/37/23.  Democrats have a large registration advantage, but the turnout model here appears to significantly underrepresent Republicans while getting Democrats about right.  Since independents favored Obama in this poll by seven, that might be a significant point to keep in mind.

Pennsylvania is now definitely at least in play.  Obama has to keep spending more money on defense in the state in order to keep Romney from stealing the state away, becoming the first Republican to take it since George H. W. Bush in 1988.  If Romney breaches this firewall, it’s going to be an early night on Election Day.

 


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James Carville once said, “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia on one side, Pittsburgh on the other and Alabama in the middle.”

Come On ALABAMA!!!!

Elizabetty on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

ROLL TIDE!

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Now firewalls are something I happen to know something about. The biggest problem with 0′s is he is using paper to build his. Lots of it, printed from thin air. They don’t work well.

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 10:15 AM

I call unexpected in the drinking game.

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Careful. That could kill you.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:17 AM

“Do YOU know the unemployment rate in Scranton?”

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:09 AM

“I sure do.”

But notice Joe didn’t say it. Ryan was too quick to answer. Should’ve let Joe blurt a number out before continuing.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Romney should do a campaign stop in the Philadelphia suburbs. Four years ago there were Obama yard signs on every third houses’ lawn from the summer onwards. This year there aren’t any! People around where I live can’t stand him, and there’s a ton of votes here…it’s very densely populated. There are quite a few Romney signs too.

OxyCon on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

“Romney is NOT gaining in Pennsylvania and there will not be a near landslide in the bitterclinger counties. You people are D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N-A-L! By the way, did you see the new poll from Kim Jong-un POLLytech University? It has Obama up by 63 points nationally with a R +74. Oh, and the Castro-Guevara-Chavez Battleground Poll of the Swing States has Obama wiping Romney’s blood off the floor with a 75 point lead and has a sample of 2/3798/468 (D/R/I). You wankers had better catch up! Even true cons are voting for my Dear Leader!”

- dumbygumbyandpokey, Assistant Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I call unexpected in the drinking game.

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Please borrow someone else’s on election night.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Presstitutes:
OBungoles firewall is Floriduh, er wait, ah Virginia, er well Oiho, ah um Pennsylvainia, er New Hampshire?, well Iowa for sure, ah hum, skip dat Massatoochits and Minneapolis is always red? New York and Cailfornia perhaps?
Bill wheres Slick Willey? quick shore up the shores Bill somethins slippin!

ConcealedKerry on October 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM

My family is originally from outside of pittsburgh. we’re Catholic.

family history is union coal miners and steel mill workers. democrats by culture and habit (not me, but i was raised elsewhere fwiw)

when my 70 year old aunt calls her DC-based nephew in tears asking why Obama hates the Church what do you tell her? “this is what he is. he looks on your good works and that of our Church with contempt.” she can’t be the only one.

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:29 AM

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Random and off topic – do you play hockey here? I play in Fairfax.

You tell your aunt that Obama doesn’t hate the church, he just sees no reason for it to exist. He’s too enlightened to ‘fall for’ religion, and expects everyone else to give up their faith as well.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

; )

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I do play in fairfax. small world.

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I call unexpected in the drinking game.

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Please borrow someone else’s on election night.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Please borrow someone else’s liver on election night.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Don’t.

Trust.

the Polls.

Didn’t a few weeks back, don’t now.

Play the game like we’re behind, because for all we know, we are…

Bruno Strozek on October 16, 2012 at 10:37 AM

I do play in fairfax. small world.

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Wow. Seriously. Nice to know I’m not the only conservative voter in NoVa.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Play the game like we’re behind, because for all we know, we are…

Bruno Strozek on October 16, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Agreed.

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 10:41 AM

i guess we’ve locked down the NoVA beer-league hockey demographic.

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

But notice Joe didn’t say it. Ryan was too quick to answer. Should’ve let Joe blurt a number out before continuing.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I’ve been thinking the exact same thing! Great minds….

This is one reason I was a little disappointed in Ryan’s debate performance. He set the trap, lured Biden in, and should have let him stumble into it. We all know damn well that Biden had no idea what Scranton’s unemployment rate was. Maybe Ryan was just showing a moment of sympathy for the insane old man.

Anyway – tonight is going to be another great night for Romney.

UltimateBob on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I do play in fairfax. small world.

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Wow. Seriously. Nice to know I’m not the only conservative voter in NoVa.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Nope. Count me in as well. Originally from the ‘burgh too. My folks back home may be the only conservatives there.

lucyvanpelt on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Location man, location.

Texas is kind of big don’tya’know.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Yeah I know. The schools here are actually pretty good (not liberal at all), the democrat base here mostly comes from local unions that work at the refineries and the electricians that service them.

I’ve got one graduating this year and I planned to move after he went to college. But, we had a nice surprise and now have a three month old to raise. So I think I’ll stay put for now, at least until we find another conservative leaning school district for my wife to work at.

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 10:48 AM

…voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent

That is dicktater territory.

TexAz on October 16, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Please, God, let it be so.

How my home state could have ever gone over to the dark side is beyond me.

Cleombrotus on October 16, 2012 at 10:53 AM

How my home state could have ever gone over to the dark side is beyond me.

Cleombrotus on October 16, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Two words: Philadelphia & Pittsburgh

UltimateBob on October 16, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I will be performing my “snow dance” on Monday, November 5th. I am a resident of the Commonwealth and believe that PA is in play. If the weather is bad (less people in the city will vote), that will be a huge deciding factor for the GOP.

djaymick on October 16, 2012 at 10:58 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012

…D I A R R H E A…!!!
(get treated!)

KOOLAID2 on October 16, 2012 at 10:59 AM

The fact Obama is leading among college graduates 54-43 is a disgrace.

I can’t write these people off as stupid. It does explain Europe though. It appears getting a college degree just reinforced the idea that “masterminds” in Washington and elsewhere should run the country regardless of not just little result but BAD results in EVERY area.

Till the educated in this country start to look objectively at liberalism we are headed to Europe. Sorry to post this in what is otherwise good news.

Conan on October 16, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I do play in fairfax. small world.

NoVAHockey on October 16, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Wow. Seriously. Nice to know I’m not the only conservative voter in NoVa.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Nope. Count me in as well. Originally from the ‘burgh too. My folks back home may be the only conservatives there.

lucyvanpelt on October 16, 2012 at 10:47 AM

There are more of us here than you think. Greetings from the People’s Republic of Alexandria.

IamDA on October 16, 2012 at 11:06 AM

…D I A R R H E A…!!!
(get treated!)

KOOLAID2 on October 16, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Dumb fluke # ?

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Conan on October 16, 2012 at 11:03 AM

The “educated” ARE liberalism.

Cleombrotus on October 16, 2012 at 11:08 AM

“People say the reason Obama wouldn’t call Clinton is because he doesn’t like him. The truth is, Obama doesn’t call anyone, and he’s not close to almost anyone. IT’S STUNNING THAT HE’S IN POLITICS, BECAUSE HE REALLY DOESN’T LIKE PEOPLE. My analogy is that it’s like becoming Bill Gates without liking computers.”

– Neera Tanden, a former aide to both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama

Tanden “served as senior advisor for health reform at the Department of Health and Human Services, advising Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and working on President Barack Obama’s health reform team in the White House to pass the bill,” according to her bio at the Center for American Progress.

Currently, Tanden is the CEO and President of the Center for American Progress, a Progressive organisation.

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Anyway – tonight is going to be another great night for Romney.

UltimateBob on October 16, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Hey, Bob. Ryan’s debate ‘showmanship’ inexperience showed, but he still turned out a strong substantive performance. Yesterday, Pew released a poll indicating that Independents 50% to 39% thought Ryan bested Biden in the VP debate.

Yes on Romney doing great. He is too good a debater to fail.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Fear and panic are setting in…a dangerous combination…

PatriotRider on October 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Holy Cow, I keep thinking the same thing. Not a good idea to get the idiots with the codes to the bombs in a ‘fear and panic’ situation…

Ltlgeneral64 on October 16, 2012 at 11:17 AM

BULL SHIITE !

Q Poll shows a Difference D+1 and R-6 (with a gain of +8 Indie?) over 2008 sampling ??

Really ? – R Minus 6 after 4 years of Hopey ??

Maybe in Philly……But not reality, What a joke…….

FlaMurph on October 16, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I will be performing my “snow dance” on Monday, November 5th. I am a resident of the Commonwealth and believe that PA is in play. If the weather is bad (less people in the city will vote), that will be a huge deciding factor for the GOP.

djaymick on October 16, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I live in western PA myself and I always get a big kick out of the weather forecasts for any election day here — they almost always show a likelihood of 40% rain or above or even snow, with the usual “mostly cloudy” tacked on. Never mind if the actual day turns out to be sunny and mild, which has happened more often than not.

This phenomenon has happened for as long as I can remember and not only for national elections — the state and municipal elections get those kinds of forecasts as well. And in one municipal election about a decade ago, the small town I live in decided that day to put up some traffic cones and had a couple guys shoveling asphalt into potholes, strategically placed on the road to what was my voting district’s temporary polling place at a fire hall. Yeah, sure, that wasn’t a coincidence at all.

Then, as now, my attitude is that I’m going to vote come hell, high water or traffic barriers. :)

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Romney just needs to close the sale tonight and it’s probably over.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM

..the MSM: “Nothing is over until we say it’s over!”

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Hey, Bob. Ryan’s debate ‘showmanship’ inexperience showed, but he still turned out a strong substantive performance. Yesterday, Pew released a poll indicating that Independents 50% to 39% thought Ryan bested Biden in the VP debate.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 11:13 AM

He did a good job, certainly much better than I could have done and WAY better than Old Crazy Joe. The zinger about words not coming out right was perfectly delivered, with a playful laugh right in Biden’s face. But he did miss a few good opportunities to attack, and let some of Biden’s lies go unchallenged. Ryan is just too much of a nice guy at times.

No matter – he’ll be a MUCH better VP than Evil Clown Biden.

UltimateBob on October 16, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I live in the Philly suburbs. Four years ago, Obama lawn signs were everywhere; right now, they are all Romney. True story: this morning my 9 year old asked on the way to school after passing a wave of Romney signs, “Mommy, do they even make Obama signs?” This is 10 miles outside of Philadelphia. While I do see lawn signs for Democratic state candidates, the Obama signs in my township of 24K are conspicuously absent. I am optimistic. Romney/Ryan need to schedule a visit here and/or slam the TV ads. I’m not seeing much there by either candidate, strangely.

BetsyBoss on October 16, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Really ? – R Minus 6 after 4 years of Hopey ??

Maybe in Philly……But not reality, What a joke…….

FlaMurph on October 16, 2012 at 11:17 AM

And that’s only because conservatives have gotten tired of being the Democrats’ whipping boys, and have been leaving Phila in droves.

But a lot of them have stayed in the state, so it’s pretty much a wash.

UltimateBob on October 16, 2012 at 11:30 AM

it’s going to be an early night on Election Day

you nailed it Ed, this thing will be over before 11PM ET…

RedInMD on October 16, 2012 at 11:37 AM

BetsyBoss on October 16, 2012 at 11:28 AM

On Sunday, after attending a meet-and-greet with some of our U.S. House district candidates, I saw a homemade Obama sign among the thicket of Romney/Ryan, state and U. S. House signs on the highway median on my way home. Someone had affixed a black plastic garbage bag(!) onto a metal sign post and used silver metallic paint to spell out “OBAMA” in crudely drawn capital letters. There was something else written above it, although I couldn’t tell what it said and I wasn’t interested in pulling off the road to check. Unfortunately for the sign maker, silver metallic paint was not a good choice — it reflected the light so that it pretty much blended in with the color of the garbage bag. Hmmm … message not received. Heh.

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 11:42 AM

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Was the bag supposed to represent an empty suit perhaps?

slickwillie2001 on October 16, 2012 at 11:59 AM

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Hilarious. I know exactly the type of shabbiness you mean. Sounds like the Obama / voter registration headquarters in Media, PA. The place is a run-down, out-of-business storefront – a total dump, also with lots of very crudely-painted “Obama” garbage all over the windows. Hardly inspiring and, again, a very stark contrast to the Obama energy in this area four years ago.

BetsyBoss on October 16, 2012 at 12:15 PM

I live in the Philly suburbs. Four years ago, Obama lawn signs were everywhere; right now, they are all Romney. True story: this morning my 9 year old asked on the way to school after passing a wave of Romney signs, “Mommy, do they even make Obama signs?” This is 10 miles outside of Philadelphia. While I do see lawn signs for Democratic state candidates, the Obama signs in my township of 24K are conspicuously absent. I am optimistic. Romney/Ryan need to schedule a visit here and/or slam the TV ads. I’m not seeing much there by either candidate, strangely.

BetsyBoss on October 16, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I work just outside Baltimore in Woodlawn. In ’08, it seemed every 3rd or 4th car had an Obama/Biden sticker on it. There were lots of Obama signs in the neighborhoods. For the past couple of months, I’ve seen a total of 3 car stickers and no yard signs. The turnout is going to be bad for Obama. I trust anecdotal evidence more than I do the polls…

RedInMD on October 16, 2012 at 12:19 PM

The fact Obama is leading among college graduates 54-43 is a disgrace.

Conan on October 16, 2012 at 11:03 AM

If it cheers you up, he also leads among High School Dropouts. In fact, he got a record 70% of that vote in 2008.

He’s going for the remaining 30% this time out.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 12:23 PM

dumbygumbyandpokey, Assistant Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

awesome.

redmama on October 16, 2012 at 12:33 PM

slickwillie2001 on October 16, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Ha! That’s a very apt metaphor.

I understand — in a way — the choice of using a garbage bag as a sign for the weather factor, but then again, I thought it also manifested another unintended metaphor that the sign maker probably didn’t intend: my candidate is garbage. Heh.

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 12:39 PM

BetsyBoss on October 16, 2012 at 12:15 PM

That’s hilarious as well. You would think that Obama supporters at an official campaign HQ could get official campaign signs and not have to make their own. Why isn’t the local Dem committee on top of that? (sarc)

Even if one has to make their own sign, geez … go to a craft store, for heaven’s sake. I’m sure there are weatherproof materials that someone could buy to use as a sign. Oh, wait …

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 12:53 PM

This is going to be a landslide.

John the Libertarian on October 16, 2012 at 1:07 PM

There are more of us here than you think. Greetings from the People’s Republic of Alexandria.

IamDA on October 16, 2012 at 11:06 AM

True! But our Politburo in Arlington is far more commie than yours!!!

One funny thing though, there were campaign signs all over the place on King Street and down Walter Reed last Friday. Saturday morning, they were all gone except for the ones for Romney! The reality is probably that the county took them all down and Romney supporters were the first on the scene to put new ones up but I like to think that some group of renegade conservatives snuck into Arlington and got rid of the signs for Obama and Moron and yelled “woolverine” before sneaking back into a redder part of the state!

Happy Nomad on October 16, 2012 at 1:17 PM

My understanding is that Romney has at least 200 million dollars to spend in the next 3 weeks, not counting any money that comes in from now to election day. Should certainly have enough money to put some into PA, MI and MN.

eyedoc on October 16, 2012 at 1:30 PM

“I sure do.”

But notice Joe didn’t say it. Ryan was too quick to answer. Should’ve let Joe blurt a number out before continuing.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Ryan missed so many opportunities gifted to him by the senile moron. Earliest one and best to be nailed on was when senile moron said that Iran doesn’t have the means to mount and deliver nuclear weapons. Reply at that point that would have killed the rest of the debate should have been: “Ever hear of a dirty bomb? The method preferred by all terrorist organizations trying to get their hands on nuclear material.”

I am sure the debate would have gone very differently after that, tough to recover when you’re shown in national TV what you really are: a senile moron with grasp of reality.

riddick on October 16, 2012 at 1:33 PM

PatriotGal2257 “Then, as now, my attitude is that I’m going to vote come hell, high water or traffic barriers”

Right on! Just be careful of any Panthers blocking your way.

Belle on October 16, 2012 at 1:34 PM

My understanding is that Romney has at least 200 million dollars to spend in the next 3 weeks, not counting any money that comes in from now to election day. Should certainly have enough money to put some into PA, MI and MN.

eyedoc on October 16, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Romney people decided to pull resources from PA to OH just last week. Have no idea why as both states are in play it seems. They should have given up on NV and a couple of other smaller states instead. The only reason to stay in NV is in hopes of providing cover to Congressional seats, but they seem to be doing fine here nonetheless.

riddick on October 16, 2012 at 1:36 PM

So, when you take into account the Dem turn out skew, it’s a barn burner. The tide is changing & the chicago thug machine knows it. They will be pulling out every low life lie & dirty trick they can come up with, in the next few weeks. Mitt better be ready to take on Obama, Cowley & the Obama media Spin Machine tonight! They will all be out for blood!
Update on How to take on the Obama Enemy media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 16, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Please borrow someone else’s liver on election night.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:36 AM

ROFL!!

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Belle on October 16, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Thanks! Yeah, you can be sure that has crossed my mind, inasmuch as I’m going to poll watch again. Right now, I’m being assigned to my own district’s polling place and I remember the lines — very orderly, but long — from 2008, but there’s a possibility I might get sent elsewhere in town. I’ll have my camera/phone with me in any case.

PatriotGal2257 on October 16, 2012 at 2:53 PM

The fact Obama is leading among college graduates 54-43 is a disgrace.

I can’t write these people off as stupid. It does explain Europe though. It appears getting a college degree just reinforced the idea that “masterminds” in Washington and elsewhere should run the country regardless of not just little result but BAD results in EVERY area.

Till the educated in this country start to look objectively at liberalism we are headed to Europe. Sorry to post this in what is otherwise good news.

Conan on October 16, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Agreed. Thats what happens when states lose their rights and the federal govt has its hand in evry aspect of our lives! Teachers are forced to teach the BS the left wants to peddle.

Just for shiggles… My grandaughter is 7. She overheard us talking about how the libtards want to take out “one nation under God” from our Pledge of Alligience. She stood up, put her hand over her heart, and proceeded to say the Pledge, very forcefully saying the “under God” part. When she finished, she looked over at me and said “Nanny, I’m going to say this every day at school and if I get in trouble, I’m calling you!”

Moral: Teaching our children, begins at home.

kcd on October 16, 2012 at 5:30 PM

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