Romney gaining in PA?

posted at 9:21 am on October 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s been a long time since Pennsylvania was within reach of a Republican presidential candidate, but Quinnipiac becomes the latest pollster to put Mitt Romney nearly within the margin of error in the Keystone State.  In a single month, Romney gained eight points on Barack Obama in a state that Democrats have to keep in their column to have any chance of holding the White House, and Obama now only leads by four:

Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 – 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 – 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

National Journal notes the big shift in Romney’s favor as well in another poll:

The survey also squares with another recent Pennsylvania survey that reported Romney gains. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters, conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found Obama leading Romney by only 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That was down from an 7-point advantage for the president from the same survey taken in late September.

RCP now has the Obama lead in its Pennsylvania average down to 5%, with three of the polls — Quinnipiac, Morning Call. and Susquehanna — under that range. The sample in the Q-poll is a D+8, 39/31/26; the exit polls from 2008 were D+7 at 44/37/18, and but 2010 was much closer, with a D+3 at 40/37/23.  Democrats have a large registration advantage, but the turnout model here appears to significantly underrepresent Republicans while getting Democrats about right.  Since independents favored Obama in this poll by seven, that might be a significant point to keep in mind.

Pennsylvania is now definitely at least in play.  Obama has to keep spending more money on defense in the state in order to keep Romney from stealing the state away, becoming the first Republican to take it since George H. W. Bush in 1988.  If Romney breaches this firewall, it’s going to be an early night on Election Day.

 


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Meanwhile….

New Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP national poll (10/12 – 10/14)

Romney 50
Obama 46

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/16/1144982/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 9:23 AM

PA has teased us too many times, but at least it shows that a landslide is possible. And even is PA doesn’t go Romney’s way, WI, MI, and even MN are definite pickup possibilities and one would think O-I-H-O should go to Romney since it’s a far more reliable red state than PA ever was.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Gumballs!

wargamer6 on October 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

No, Barackabama’s firewall is Virginia according to PPP.

SouthernGent on October 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Yes say it is so!

Tilly on October 16, 2012 at 9:25 AM

gumby will wake up to some painful poking.

bayview on October 16, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I just pray we get a repeat of Walker’s Wisconsin vote from MSNBC.
Rachel Maddow 7:01 pm: “This could be an incredibly long night. We might not know until tomorrow morn – we have breaking news, NBC just called it.”

Marcus on October 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

In the end, I will almost feel disappointed at how little resistance is put up by Obama and the Demo(n)crats. We will have imagined the much more formidable than they ever were.

ParisParamus on October 16, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Feel the wave… feel the momentum…

The smell of FEAR permeates the Obama campaign…

More popcorn, please!!

Khun Joe on October 16, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Unfortunately, Hillary can not take responsibility for this.

kingsjester on October 16, 2012 at 9:29 AM

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Meltdown mode over there, very entertaining.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 9:29 AM

gumby will wake up to some painful poking.

bayview on October 16, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Its what gumby lives for.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Get the ads running. If he’s close today, he might blow it open tonight. Then it will be the media’s job to destroy him (if they don’t do so with plants tonight).

Zaggs on October 16, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I just pray we get a repeat of Walker’s Wisconsin vote from MSNBC.
Rachel Maddow 7:01 pm: “This could be an incredibly long night. We might not know until tomorrow morn – we have breaking news, NBC just called it.”

Marcus on October 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

You think MSDNC will call it for Romney on Election Night? I think they’ll hold off til at least the next day, although we may see Chris Matthews or Ed Schultz’s head explode on live TV.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Fear and panic are setting in…a dangerous combination…

PatriotRider on October 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

This season Q polls have wildly oversampled Democrats. I would not be surprised if.Romney isn’t doing even better than they suggest.

mitchellvii on October 16, 2012 at 9:33 AM

PA has teased us too many times,

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

You’re looking at this the wrong way. Don’t look at PA as a tease for us. Look at her as an unfaithful trollop to the Dems.

We don’t need PA. We’ve won plenty of times without her. But if it’s this close, Team Liar has to move resources there, even if Team Mitt never does. Team Liar simply can’t take the chance of Mitt making a last minute move there, and not having that move checked.

Go ahead, 0… buy that trollop lots of jewels, flowers and candy. She’ll probably stick with you, in the end.

Meanwhile, we’ll be dating Ohio, Michigan and Colorado…

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Tingles wont be happy

Heh

cmsinaz on October 16, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I’ve noticed RCP ignored PPP and Daily Kos polling. I guess they just wrote them off for past bias.

mitchellvii on October 16, 2012 at 9:35 AM

We are getting close to the time where real pollsters actually care about their reputations.

mitchellvii on October 16, 2012 at 9:35 AM

PA has teased us too many times, but at least it shows that a landslide is possible. And even is PA doesn’t go Romney’s way, WI, MI, and even MN are definite pickup possibilities and one would think O-I-H-O should go to Romney since it’s a far more reliable red state than PA ever was.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Ogabe was growing his Free Sh!t Army in Ohio for 3.5 years, and now he’s calling in the favors. Whadda ya think, lad, free phones fall from the sky? Fortunately for us, the dunce assumed that PA and MI in his pocket, and neglected to shower them with a goodie rain.

Archivarix on October 16, 2012 at 9:35 AM

It would be quite cool to see Pennsylvania fall in the early hours of the election night. More popcorn please!

OT: Why am I seeing Obama campaign adds in New York? You’d think they wouldn’t need to spend a single dime here! Do they know something I don’t?

Tomolena1 on October 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Marcus Lol:)

cmsinaz on October 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Romney has definitely got busy winning:

Rasmussen Tuesday tracking

Romney 49
Obama 47

Romney just needs to close the sale tonight and it’s probably over.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Ogabe was growing his Free Sh!t Army in Ohio for 3.5 years, and now he’s calling in the favors. Whadda ya think, lad, free phones fall from the sky? Fortunately for us, the dunce assumed that PA and MI in his pocket, and neglected to shower them with a goodie rain.

Archivarix on October 16, 2012 at 9:35 AM

He’s been growing his Free Sh-t Army all over the country. Why would O-I-H-O be more susceptible to that sort of bribery than other swing states? Especially considering it’s a traditionally reddish state that went for the GOP in 2010.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Gumbyandpokey must be feverishly searching for a poll that will show Obama ahead.

kingsjester on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

James Carville once said, “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia on one side, Pittsburgh on the other and Alabama in the middle.”

Come On ALABAMA!!!!

Elizabetty on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

“Romney has definitely got busy winning:

Rasmussen Tuesday tracking

Romney 49
Obama 47

Romney just needs to close the sale tonight and it’s probably over.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM”

And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

This season Q polls have wildly oversampled Democrats. I would not be surprised if.Romney isn’t doing even better than they suggest.

mitchellvii on October 16, 2012 at 9:33 AM

They’ve oversampled, true. But wildly so? I would argue they’ve been in line with most polling outfits, which are all oversampling based on 2008 turnout models. Q-polls don’t stand out in that regard.

The way I has always regarded Quinnipiac is they are terrible polling outside the Mid-Atlantic, but generally know that region well enough to properly correct samples. I always found them very good at predicting PA House races.

This bodes well…

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Slip some ruffies in the Philly water system-
In the bag then.

bazil9 on October 16, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Forget it.

Philadelphia is jam-packed with 47%ers who understand how to milk the system but don’t have a clue where Benghazi is and think an ambassador is an old studebaker model.

fogw on October 16, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I would presume Romney has enough money to run ads in PA, MI, MN. But more than that, he needs to make a personal appearance. He needs to show those states he hasn’t given up on them, and personal appearance is a lot better.

eyedoc on October 16, 2012 at 9:41 AM

He’s been growing his Free Sh-t Army all over the country. Why would O-I-H-O be more susceptible to that sort of bribery than other swing states? Especially considering it’s a traditionally reddish state that went for the GOP in 2010.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

It’s more of a supply issue, than a demand issue.

Team Liar knew Ohio would be critical, probably since they first slithered into the WH. Bet your arse they were making sure Ohio’s Obamaphone Girls got every bit of pig slop they could shovel into the trough.

And the sows found they liked it…

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Obama is so nervous about tonight that he is going to FAIL.

nitzsche on October 16, 2012 at 9:43 AM

…black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent.

Fortunately, however, they’re not racist. But of course my vote for Romney will be, in part, an expression of my latent racism.

jwolf on October 16, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Now I get to play gumby – how can Romney be down to both college and non college graduates AND independents and be within 4?

Teasing us still. I realize the split isn’t right, but still. I need to see more before I waste any money in PA.

Zomcon JEM on October 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

But the new DailyKos Poll shows Romney winning the swing states.

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

You think MSDNC will call it for Romney on Election Night? I think they’ll hold off til at least the next day, although we may see Chris Matthews or Ed Schultz’s head explode on live TV.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

The last time NBC called a Republican presidential victory on Election Night was in 1988.

aunursa on October 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

College educated WASP women are the Presidents bulwark in Pennsylvania. As go the women of the Main Line will go Pennsylvania, apparently.

MTF on October 16, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I assume Romney will have some better internals to see whether this makes sense or not.

Zomcon JEM on October 16, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I just pray we get a repeat of Walker’s Wisconsin vote from MSNBC.
Rachel Maddow 7:01 pm: “This could be an incredibly long night. We might not know until tomorrow morn – we have breaking news, NBC just called it.”

Marcus on October 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Hopefully the racists at MSNBC will be crying early and long.

22044 on October 16, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Some of the tug is that PA votes pro choice. The thing is when you start saying things like “Reproductive Rights” do women start to wonder if they will ever be able to afford a child?

Obama’s way is that women are not smart if they choose a child, and that is especially true in the Obama economy. So they say there is a choice, but based on the fact that they claim women have abortions because they “can’t afford a child” who is to blame here?

The dems are pressing pro choice pretty hard, that new ad…ultrasound being “Invasive” when the ultrasound to see a baby is from the outside on your tummy, (not inside like looking for cancer) and Abortion is hugely invasive, not done by waving a wand and magic. I think it was a mistake to put that word in their ad.

They are still pushing hard on this topic hoping to keep women, but women are heading to Romney and his economic Fix it. People are tired of waiting to have a life.

Fleuries on October 16, 2012 at 9:47 AM

The last time NBC called a Republican presidential victory on Election Night was in 1988.

aunursa on October 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Well in fairness, 2000 took a little while to get resolved and 2004 had more than a few networks(CBS was another example) refusing to accept the obvious that night. Hell, even the Kerry campaign itself trotted John Edwards out to declare that they weren’t conceding.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:47 AM

And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Bless your heart!

See ya in three weeks.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 16, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Romney gaining in PA?
Lucy Offers To Hold Football for Charlie Brown

Flange on October 16, 2012 at 9:47 AM

But the new DailyKos Poll shows Romney winning the swing states.

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Yes but even DailyKos says it is probably an outlier

Signed…Goofyanddopey.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month.

Are they all named Julia?

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 9:48 AM

And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

So, the incumbent POTUS is below 50%, across twelve swing states, the majority of which he needs to win in order to remain POTUS.

Are you somehow arguing this is a good thing?

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 9:48 AM

And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Oh Gumby?

KABOOM!

DailyKos/PPP

National
Romney 50
Obama 46

Swing States
Romney 50
Obama 47

I’m actually beginning to feel sorry for you.

Nevermind, it passed.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I drove through NW PA over the weekend, and the only Obama/Biden signs I saw were in public right-of-ways and intersections. LOTS of Romney/Ryan signs on lawns.

Now, I know they still have to overcome the vote machines in Philly and Pittsburgh, but it seems reasonable that Romney could be competitive.

Red Cloud on October 16, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I don’t believe any of this.

Andrea Mitchell said Mittens didn’t even know how to order a sub-sandwich in PA for crying out loud!

pain train on October 16, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Why is anyone surprised that once the polls shifted from the BS “adults” model, then the almost-equally BS “registered voters” model to the much more reliable “likely voter” model that Obama has taken a nose-dive? The only thing still being falsely portrayed is Obama’s “likability”; people actually don’t like someone who consistently lies to your face. They’re still just trying to be polite.

And is anyone surprised that after being hammered for the D+ teens advantage throughout most of the earlier polls, and the subsequent shift to more defensible (yet still unrealistic) D+3 polls, that they’re moving back into the D+ Unlikely range in an effort to keep Democrats interested in a race they’re destined to lose by 10?

The house of cards is crumbling, and you can bet, none of this even takes into account Benghazi.

BKeyser on October 16, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I hope Axey Smurf has worked his debating skills magic with Barry tonight. We need more of his public speaking prowess.

bloggless on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I fully expect Obama to take PA with 104% of the vote.

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Could be some of these dem leaning polls are putting Romney up a little in order to show a great Obama comeback after tonight’s debate.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Now we know the voter ID law was soooo important last month…

budfox on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

The collapse of President Momjeans McLimpwrist is as heartening as it is entertaining. It could not have come at a better time.

Greek Fire on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

“And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:38 AM

So, the incumbent POTUS is below 50%, across twelve swing states, the majority of which he needs to win in order to remain POTUS.

Are you somehow arguing this is a good thing?

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 9:48 AM”

Yes, Obama is at 49, so all he would have to do is get 1/4 of the remaining voters to win. That’s a good place to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

I don’t see how any of these states with coal can vote for a donk.

Blake on October 16, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Could be some of these dem leaning polls are putting Romney up a little in order to show a great Obama comeback after tonight’s debate.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Pennsylvania has long drawn Charlie Brown/Lucy field goal kick analogies, perhaps it’s being teed up again so as to draw heat from Wisconsin and Ohio?

Greek Fire on October 16, 2012 at 9:54 AM

You think MSDNC will call it for Romney on Election Night? I think they’ll hold off til at least the next day, although we may see Chris Matthews or Ed Schultz’s head explode on live TV.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

They will wait,hoping for the recounts and lawyers to get involved.We may not see a winner for months.

docflash on October 16, 2012 at 9:54 AM

As Mitt Romney and President Obama get ready for their second debate, a new bipartisan survey shows a surge for Romney in a key voter group following their first debate Oct. 3.

The random cellphone and land line poll of 600 likely rural voters in nine battleground states Oct. 9-11 has Romney at 59 percent among the survey’s respondents. Obama’s support is now down to 37 percent among rural battleground voters, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago.

Oh my!

ted c on October 16, 2012 at 9:55 AM

But the new DailyKos Poll shows Romney winning the swing states.

sentinelrules on October 16, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Hey, don’t interrupt his cherry picking!

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Could be some of these dem leaning polls are putting Romney up a little in order to show a great Obama comeback after tonight’s debate.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

I don’t think all the pollsters are that nefarious(or good enough) to conspire like that. Certainly the media is desperate for an Obama comeback narrative, but the problem there is he has to give them something to run with. Even if he does better tonight, he has to bait Romney into some sort of gaffe or meltdown because you know Mitt’s not just gonna show up unprepared.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I would presume Romney has enough money to run ads in PA, MI, MN. But more than that, he needs to make a personal appearance. He needs to show those states he hasn’t given up on them, and personal appearance is a lot better.

eyedoc on October 16, 2012 at 9:41 AM

There ARE ads here, and Ann Romney was somewhere in the state yesterday. I live about an hour outside Pittsburgh. I went there on Saturday, and I had to get all the way into the city itself before I saw an Obama sign. What I did see are signs that said “Stop the War on Coal- Fire Obama”, in addition to the Romney/Ryan signs. The sway Pittsburgh had is shrinking as everyone moves away from there to avoid the high taxes.

Night Owl on October 16, 2012 at 9:56 AM

We are getting close to the time where real pollsters actually care about their reputations.

mitchellvii on October 16, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I don’t know if you can call any of them “real”. But the ones that do care about their reputations are now adjusting their models to be more in line with reality.

Gunlock Bill on October 16, 2012 at 9:56 AM

If Romney breaches this firewall, it’s going to be an early night on Election Day.

So I won’t have to stay up until 1 am? Goody.

rbj on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Romney needs another strong performance tonight. Come on Mitt!! You can do it! Don’t relax now!

ncconservative on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I live in Eastern PA, and I have only seen ONE 0bama sign in my town. One. Romney signs are starting to pop up in lots of places.

CurtZHP on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Yes, Obama is at 49, so all he would have to do is get 1/4 of the remaining voters to win. That’s a good place to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Spin Gumbo Spin!

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

OT: Why am I seeing Obama campaign adds in New York? You’d think they wouldn’t need to spend a single dime here! Do they know something I don’t?

Tomolena1 on October 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Tonight’s debate is in NY, so Mitt is technically in NY. Whether or not he wil do any campaigning in NY outside of this debate I don’t know, but just his physical presence in the state does have an effect on some voters.

Remember that the House seat vacated by Anthony Weiner was won by a Republican. If Obama’s support in NYC is equally weak, and the non-urban areas of NY are more conservative, and the entire state sick of what Democrats have done to the economy over the last 6 years, I could see NY being in play. They’ve seen what has happened in NJ with Republican Governor Chris Christie, and maybe New Yorkers want some of that.

ITguy on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

And Obama is winning the swing states tracking 49-47 in that same Rasmussen poll.

gumbyandpokey

Its called margin of error.

Zaggs on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

They are still pushing hard on this topic hoping to keep women, but women are heading to Romney and his economic Fix it. People are tired of waiting to have a life.

Fleuries on October 16, 2012 at 9:47 AM

.
You’ve got the first half of WHY Romney has seen so big a swing and you’re thisclose to the second half:

People are desperate for their children to have a life.

PolAgnostic on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

LOTS of Romney/Ryan signs on lawns.

Red Cloud on October 16, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I’ve seen a lot of Romney/Ryan signs sprout up on lawns around me the past week, too. Of course, I reside in a central jersey suburb surrounded by two large cities that will undoubtedly go Obama (prez won my county 62% to 38% in ’08) but my town does often elect Dems to local office so I can’t say it’s strongly GOP.

I tried to buy a couple lawn signs from Romney’s website store but they are sold out. I settled for rally signs instead to place on my front windows.

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Go ahead, 0… buy that trollop lots of jewels, flowers and candy. She’ll probably stick with you, in the end.

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 9:33 AM

How dare you to call the First Lady a trollop?

Archivarix on October 16, 2012 at 9:59 AM

It’s all negative news for Obama and no positive news on the horizon with two and a half more weeks of cascade effect to go.

It’s going to be a Romney landslide of epic proportions and down ticket as well.

Dusty on October 16, 2012 at 10:00 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Unable to break 50% with D+9 sampling is awesome!

Romney is currently up by a minimum of 5 pts. nationally when we account for the ridiculous sampling most pollsters are doing. You are still entertaining though. Will you be here November 6th and 7th to get kicked in the a$$ repeatedly when Obama goes down in flames?

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:00 AM

hope Axey Smurf has worked his debating skills magic with Barry tonight. We need more of his public speaking prowess.

bloggless on October 16, 2012 at 9:52 AM

That’s Miss Beauregaurde to you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4_cf_fZDc0

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:01 AM

By the way, as far as optics go, I guess tonight will be the debate where the candidates walk around in white shirts/ties with sleeves rolled up. Obama is gaunt and sickly looking and Romney looks to be in better shape. Obama looks like Tom Hanks in Philadelphia.

nitzsche on October 16, 2012 at 10:01 AM

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Four Romney/Ryan signs in my neighborhood, including mine. Last election I saw Obama signs and stickers everywhere. I’m in Texas but live in a Democrat stronghold. This time around, I see no Obama stickers or signs any where. All anecdotal of course, but I keep hearing this same kind of story over and over.

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

So I won’t have to stay up until 1 am? Goody.

rbj on October 16, 2012 at 9:58 AM

It might be worth staying up that late even if it is called early just to enjoy the mental implosions.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

The random cellphone and land line poll of 600 likely rural voters in nine battleground states Oct. 9-11 has Romney at 59 percent among the survey’s respondents.

Oh my!

ted c on October 16, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I loves me those bitter clingers!

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I loves me those bitter clingers!

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

If Obama mentions the 47% video tonight, Romney should respond in kind with the “bitter clingers” quote. That would help cement support in VA and PA.

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Yes, Obama is at 49, so all he would have to do is get 1/4 of the remaining voters to win. That’s a good place to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Taking the polls at face value – that’s hardly a good place for an incumbent to be. It shows he can still possibly win, that’s about it. The polls also show movement away from Obama and toward Romney, which again is not a “good place to be”.

Yes, it is possible Obama squeaks this out. But claiming he is happy with where he is right now is ridiculous.

Monkeytoe on October 16, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Just checked the Romney web store–they have restocked the lawn signs. ;)

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Andrea Mitchell . . . .

pain train on October 16, 2012 at 9:51 AM

AWWWWW!!!!!!

She is UUUGGGGLLLYYY!!!!!!

Gunlock Bill on October 16, 2012 at 10:06 AM

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Location man, location.

Texas is kind of big don’tya’know.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Yes, Obama is at 49, so all he would have to do is get 1/4 of the remaining voters to win. That’s a good place to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Cherrypicking won’t help Obama win.

The 3 other battleground polls of just past 24 hours have Romney up 2,3 and 5.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 10:07 AM

In case anyone was wondering:
“Those numbers are significant because at this point in the 2008 election, candidate Barack Obama was leading John McCain in every single one of those battlegrounds, including conservative-leaning North Carolina. In many of them, he was ahead by double digits, whereas his biggest battleground-state lead now is just 4.8 percentage points, according to the RCP Average — and that is in the usually reliable Democratic state of Pennsylvania.”

From RCP

Zaggs on October 16, 2012 at 10:07 AM

If Romney breaches this firewall, it’s going to be an early night on Election Day.

Nope. If Romney takes PA, I’m staying up until every single state is called. There will be no end to the festivities and frivolity.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I loves me those bitter clingers!

RepubChica on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

“Do YOU know the unemployment rate in Scranton?”

Obviously people in Scranton do. Bitter Clingers – REPRESENT!

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:09 AM

If D+8 = O+4, then in reality it’s a tie, since D+4 is realistic for PA. Things are only going to get worse for Obama in the next 3 weeks.

The media will not want to be thought of as not getting it. Once it is obvious that Obama can’t win, they will stop shilling for him. Expect this to happen soon after the last debate where Mitt will again hand Obama his a$$.

Basilsbest on October 16, 2012 at 10:11 AM

AWWWWW!!!!!!

She is UUUGGGGLLLYYY!!!!!!

Gunlock Bill on October 16, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Someone put a bag over my head.

Cue itsnotaboutme to come in & call us a bunch of creeps.

22044 on October 16, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Gumby gumby..you stupid stupid propagandist.

wargamer6 on October 16, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Nope. If Romney takes PA, I’m staying up until every single state is called. There will be no end to the festivities and frivolity.

Washington Nearsider on October 16, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I am actually planning on taking that Wednesday off to celebrate.

I just pray we get a repeat of Walker’s Wisconsin vote from MSNBC.
Rachel Maddow 7:01 pm: “This could be an incredibly long night. We might not know until tomorrow morn – we have breaking news, NBC just called it.”

Marcus on October 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Speaking of Wisconsin, I was there last week, in Madison of all places, and I count on 1 finger how many obama signs I saw there.

ConservativePartyNow on October 16, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Yes, Obama is at 49, so all he would have to do is get 1/4 of the remaining voters to win. That’s a good place to be.

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Once again, son… are you retarded, or just a Democrat?

Undecideds break against an incumbent at this point, and do so 4 or 5 to 1. They did so in 1976, 1980, and in 1992. Considering the lead Team Liar enjoys in MI and PA, that 49-47 means a tie across the other ten states.

Tell me how that adds up to a good thing for Team Liar?

JohnGalt23 on October 16, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Andrea Mitchell said Mittens didn’t even know how to order a sub-sandwich in PA for crying out loud!

[pain train on October 16, 2012 at 9:51 AM]

Andrea “Speed of Light” Mitchell expounding on what Romney doesn’t know? Bwahahahahaha!

Dusty on October 16, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Obama ads are running in New York in order to rattle the money tree. While it will be closer than some think I’d say NY should go for Obama 54-46. However, I’m sticking to my national turn-out of Mitt 52 -Obama 48. Incumbents just don’t gets the undecided this late in an election cycle. If you are upset enough with Obama to be undecided after seeing him in action for four long years what could possibly change your mind to support him in the next 3 weeks?

Fred 2 on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

It might be worth staying up that late even if it is called early just to enjoy the mental implosions.

NotCoach on October 16, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I call unexpected in the drinking game.

Laura in Maryland on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Obama is a ahead in some poll somewhere..real or imaginary..FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP DERP
FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP………………………….

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 10:12 AM

HumpBot Salvation on October 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM

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